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0000C000000
FXUS64 KLCH 302104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY MARGINALLY MOIST AIR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH ISOLD
CELLS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF AREA...LIKELY ALONG
REMNANTS OF DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LVL DECKS
ADVANCING INTO EAST TX FROM CONVECTION OVER HILL COUNTRY...COULD
PRODUCE A FEW LGT SHOWERS IF PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH GROUND FROM
HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL SLOWLY
RETROGRADES INTO AREA BY MID WEEK...ISOLD POPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LA...SOUTH OF I-20.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE SUBTLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY MID
WEEK...TEMPS AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN A SEEMING PERSISTENT
PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH CHANGES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IF THE UPPER
LOW MANAGES TO SHIFT WEST INTO TX...ENSUING SUBSIDENCE COULD YIELD
LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY CONVECTION GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
MLU  69  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  68  93  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  69  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  95  67  95 /  20  10  10  20
TYR  73  94  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  72  93 /  20  10  10  20
LFK  70  94  72  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY MARGINALLY MOIST AIR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH ISOLD
CELLS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF AREA...LIKELY ALONG
REMNANTS OF DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LVL DECKS
ADVANCING INTO EAST TX FROM CONVECTION OVER HILL COUNTRY...COULD
PRODUCE A FEW LGT SHOWERS IF PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH GROUND FROM
HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL SLOWLY
RETROGRADES INTO AREA BY MID WEEK...ISOLD POPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LA...SOUTH OF I-20.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE SUBTLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY MID
WEEK...TEMPS AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN A SEEMING PERSISTENT
PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH CHANGES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IF THE UPPER
LOW MANAGES TO SHIFT WEST INTO TX...ENSUING SUBSIDENCE COULD YIELD
LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY CONVECTION GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
MLU  69  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  68  93  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  69  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  95  67  95 /  20  10  10  20
TYR  73  94  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  72  93 /  20  10  10  20
LFK  70  94  72  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY MARGINALLY MOIST AIR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH ISOLD
CELLS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF AREA...LIKELY ALONG
REMNANTS OF DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LVL DECKS
ADVANCING INTO EAST TX FROM CONVECTION OVER HILL COUNTRY...COULD
PRODUCE A FEW LGT SHOWERS IF PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH GROUND FROM
HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL SLOWLY
RETROGRADES INTO AREA BY MID WEEK...ISOLD POPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LA...SOUTH OF I-20.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE SUBTLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY MID
WEEK...TEMPS AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN A SEEMING PERSISTENT
PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH CHANGES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IF THE UPPER
LOW MANAGES TO SHIFT WEST INTO TX...ENSUING SUBSIDENCE COULD YIELD
LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY CONVECTION GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
MLU  69  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  68  93  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  69  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  95  67  95 /  20  10  10  20
TYR  73  94  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  72  93 /  20  10  10  20
LFK  70  94  72  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY MARGINALLY MOIST AIR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH ISOLD
CELLS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF AREA...LIKELY ALONG
REMNANTS OF DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LVL DECKS
ADVANCING INTO EAST TX FROM CONVECTION OVER HILL COUNTRY...COULD
PRODUCE A FEW LGT SHOWERS IF PRECIP MANAGES TO REACH GROUND FROM
HIGHER CLOUD DECKS. AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL SLOWLY
RETROGRADES INTO AREA BY MID WEEK...ISOLD POPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LA...SOUTH OF I-20.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBLE SUBTLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY MID
WEEK...TEMPS AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER IN A SEEMING PERSISTENT
PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH CHANGES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IF THE UPPER
LOW MANAGES TO SHIFT WEST INTO TX...ENSUING SUBSIDENCE COULD YIELD
LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY CONVECTION GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
MLU  69  94  71  96 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  68  93  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  69  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  95  67  95 /  20  10  10  20
TYR  73  94  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  73  94  72  93 /  20  10  10  20
LFK  70  94  72  92 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 302011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A WEAK TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA...IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT
NOTHING MUCH GOING ON OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT THE FEW STORMS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
BIG BEND LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH MODELS AND
NEIGHBORS FORECASTS. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAND UNTIL A
SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL...TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. 35

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SET UP OVER THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERING DETAILS ON WHEN SYSTEM
DEPARTS. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SCATTERED PRECIP DURING
THE DAY AND ISOLATED...MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHT. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MCB WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z
FOR A FEW HOURS. 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE LIGHT FOG
PERHAPS AT BTR AND HDC...BUT WITH OBS THIS MORNING NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING LESS THAN 7 MILES DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

ANSORGE

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 3 FEET /MAINLY OUTER WATERS/ WILL PREVAIL AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINANTS THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ANSORGE

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 302011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A WEAK TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA...IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT
NOTHING MUCH GOING ON OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT THE FEW STORMS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
BIG BEND LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH MODELS AND
NEIGHBORS FORECASTS. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAND UNTIL A
SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL...TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. 35

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SET UP OVER THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERING DETAILS ON WHEN SYSTEM
DEPARTS. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SCATTERED PRECIP DURING
THE DAY AND ISOLATED...MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHT. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MCB WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z
FOR A FEW HOURS. 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE LIGHT FOG
PERHAPS AT BTR AND HDC...BUT WITH OBS THIS MORNING NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING LESS THAN 7 MILES DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

ANSORGE

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 3 FEET /MAINLY OUTER WATERS/ WILL PREVAIL AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINANTS THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ANSORGE

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /
00004000
  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT
00004000
 WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL
LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THIS CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX/NW LA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SOME AC CIGS /BETWEEN 10-15KFT/ MAY REDEVELOP OVER NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. CAN/T
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NEAR THIS SHEAR
AXIS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. WHILE THE
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SWRN END OF THE SHEAR AXIS
BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER SE TX. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
CIRRUS...HAVE OMITTED IT FROM THE TAFS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN IN THE SCT CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX/WRN
LA...WITH LT/VRB WINDS ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z.
/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAS
00020000
T THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301545
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER IN DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN W LA.

DISCUSSION...
SOME THICK MIDDECK DRIFTING EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NACOGDOCHES TO NEAR NATCHITOCHES. TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE SURFACE FOR
THE MOST PART. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301545
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON SATELLITE...SPINNING OVER TX HILL
COUNTRY...WITH ISOLD SHOWER ACROS FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
TX BUT NO THUNDER YET. KSHV 12Z SOUNDING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLD CONVECTION...WITH NO REAL INVERSIONS SEEN ALOFT. READJUSTING
ISOLD POPS TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN TX...SE OK...SW AR...AND A
PORTION OF NW LA AND ADDED THUNDER THIS AFTN. DRY AIR IN LOWER
LVLS WITH DEWPOINTS MID TO UPPER 60S...COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER WITH LOWER PCPN WATER VALUES...NOT MUCH IN
WAY OF QPF. LEFT OUT POPS REMAINDER OF AREA GIVEN FACT THAT 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KJAN SIMPLY TOO DRY. A 12 DEGREE TEMP RISE
FROM MOST 10 AM READINGS WILL YIELD AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER IN DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN W LA.

DISCUSSION...
SOME THICK MIDDECK DRIFTING EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NACOGDOCHES TO NEAR NATCHITOCHES. TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE SURFACE FOR
THE MOST PART. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301406
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301406
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301406
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301300
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER IN DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN W LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME THICK MIDDECK DRIFTING EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NACOGDOCHES TO NEAR NATCHITOCHES. TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE SURFACE FOR
THE MOST PART. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301300
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER IN DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN W LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME THICK MIDDECK DRIFTING EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NACOGDOCHES TO NEAR NATCHITOCHES. TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE SURFACE FOR
THE MOST PART. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301300
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER IN DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN W LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME THICK MIDDECK DRIFTING EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NACOGDOCHES TO NEAR NATCHITOCHES. TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE SURFACE FOR
THE MOST PART. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301300
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER IN DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN W LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME THICK MIDDECK DRIFTING EAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NACOGDOCHES TO NEAR NATCHITOCHES. TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE SURFACE FOR
THE MOST PART. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA ACROSS OK...NW AR...AND INTO MISSOURI. COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL ASCENT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL TX...A FEW
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 10 KFT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST SITES ARE RANGING SOMEWHERE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MOSTLY MID DECK. OUR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT HAD AN INVERSION
JUST ABOVE 6KFT AND A SECOND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HERE AND THERE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE BUCKET REALLY TO SPEAK OF AND THAT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE EVEN WITH HEATING.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO UPPER LOWS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ONE OVER SE AL AND ONE OVER W TX. BOTH ARE DRIFTING E OR NE. THE
ONE OUT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND COULD BRING A
BIT OF OFF AND ON RAIN THIS WEEK AHEAD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK UPPER LOW APPEAR TO
BE IN NOW HURRY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NEXT SUMMERY SEVEN DAYS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  93  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  90  68  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  92  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  94  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

.LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

.LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300804
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 5 KTS ON SUNDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURES BUT DID MAKE SOME DEW POINT AND WIND CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  67  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 5 KTS ON SUNDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURES BUT DID MAKE SOME DEW POINT AND WIND CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  67  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 5 KTS ON SUNDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURES BUT DID MAKE SOME DEW POINT AND WIND CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  67  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 5 KTS ON SUNDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURES BUT DID MAKE SOME DEW POINT AND WIND CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  67  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURES BUT DID MAKE SOME DEW POINT AND WIND CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/00Z TAF
PERIOD. AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-20KFT CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY ACROSS SW ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY./20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS HAVE BROUGHT A STUBBORN MID LVL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S AND DRY LOW LVLS BENEATH
CLOUD DECK...SO ANY PRECIP THAT SQUEEZES OUT OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVE SHOULD BE LGT. SFC LOW SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER SE
LA...ENHANCING THE DRY AIR AS GULF FLOW IS SHUNTED OFF. AS UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WWD...DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING
OVER MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK. BY MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA...DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN...NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA.

DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO DO EXPECT VARYING
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALBEIT BECMG SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT BUT WITH LOWER TEMPS STILL EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...AND SOUTH OF THE BLANKETING MID LVLS OVER AR AND EXTREME
NORTHERN LA. EXPECT THE TREND TOWARDS GREATER UNIFORMITY OF BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO CONTINUE...AND SEASONAL...IN
ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  67  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DROPPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURES BUT DID MAKE SOME DEW POINT AND WIND CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/00Z TAF
PERIOD. AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-20KFT CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY ACROSS SW ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY./20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS HAVE BROUGHT A STUBBORN MID LVL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S AND DRY LOW LVLS BENEATH
CLOUD DECK...SO ANY PRECIP THAT SQUEEZES OUT OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVE SHOULD BE LGT. SFC LOW SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER SE
LA...ENHANCING THE DRY AIR AS GULF FLOW IS SHUNTED OFF. AS UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WWD...DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING
OVER MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK. BY MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA...DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN...NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA.

DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO DO EXPECT VARYING
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALBEIT BECMG SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT BUT WITH LOWER TEMPS STILL EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...AND SOUTH OF THE BLANKETING MID LVLS OVER AR AND EXTREME
NORTHERN LA. EXPECT THE TREND TOWARDS GREATER UNIFORMITY OF BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO CONTINUE...AND SEASONAL...IN
ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  93  70  95 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  69  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  67  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300223
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
923 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. INTERESTING FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MS/AL COAST.
LOCALLY SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
TO SCT CU AT 4 TO 8 KFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HRS, HOWEVER DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNSET WITH
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING SUN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300223
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
923 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. INTERESTING FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MS/AL COAST.
LOCALLY SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
TO SCT CU AT 4 TO 8 KFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HRS, HOWEVER DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNSET WITH
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING SUN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/00Z TAF
PERIOD. AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-20KFT CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY ACROSS SW ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS HAVE BROUGHT A STUBBORN MID LVL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S AND DRY LOW LVLS BENEATH
CLOUD DECK...SO ANY PRECIP THAT SQUEEZES OUT OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVE SHOULD BE LGT. SFC LOW SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER SE
LA...ENHANCING THE DRY AIR AS GULF FLOW IS SHUNTED OFF. AS UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WWD...DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING
OVER MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK. BY MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA...DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN...NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA.

DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO DO EXPECT VARYING
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALBEIT BECMG SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT BUT WITH LOWER TEMPS STILL EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...AND SOUTH OF THE BLANKETING MID LVLS OVER AR AND EXTREME
NORTHERN LA. EXPECT THE TREND TOWARDS GREATER UNIFORMITY OF BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO CONTINUE...AND SEASONAL...IN
ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  66  92  68  96 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  72  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  71  92  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  66  92  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 30/00Z TAF
PERIOD. AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-20KFT CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY ACROSS SW ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS HAVE BROUGHT A STUBBORN MID LVL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S AND DRY LOW LVLS BENEATH
CLOUD DECK...SO ANY PRECIP THAT SQUEEZES OUT OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVE SHOULD BE LGT. SFC LOW SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER SE
LA...ENHANCING THE DRY AIR AS GULF FLOW IS SHUNTED OFF. AS UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WWD...DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING
OVER MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK. BY MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA...DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN...NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA.

DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO DO EXPECT VARYING
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALBEIT BECMG SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT BUT WITH LOWER TEMPS STILL EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...AND SOUTH OF THE BLANKETING MID LVLS OVER AR AND EXTREME
NORTHERN LA. EXPECT THE TREND TOWARDS GREATER UNIFORMITY OF BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO CONTINUE...AND SEASONAL...IN
ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  66  92  68  96 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  72  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  71  92  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  66  92  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292304
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
TO SCT CU AT 4 TO 8 KFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HRS, HOWEVER DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNSET WITH
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING SUN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292304
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
TO SCT CU AT 4 TO 8 KFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HRS, HOWEVER DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNSET WITH
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING SUN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING
BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY
WELL AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WE HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND AROUND 2 PM...OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE LEAVING
A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT
SECOND UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF SHOULD KEEP ANY REMNANTS
OF FORMER TS ERIKA WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SECOND UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN...CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 040-060 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A REPEAT OF MOSTLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE TO NO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OF 6 NM OR LESS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
ISOLATED...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE TRACKS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWELL AND
AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING
BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY
WELL AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WE HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND AROUND 2 PM...OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE LEAVING
A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT
SECOND UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF SHOULD KEEP ANY REMNANTS
OF FORMER TS ERIKA WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SECOND UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN...CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 040-060 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A REPEAT OF MOSTLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE TO NO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OF 6 NM OR LESS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
ISOLATED...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE TRACKS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWELL AND
AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING
BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY
WELL AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WE HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND AROUND 2 PM...OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE LEAVING
A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT
SECOND UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF SHOULD KEEP ANY REMNANTS
OF FORMER TS ERIKA WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SECOND UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN...CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 040-060 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A REPEAT OF MOSTLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE TO NO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OF 6 NM OR LESS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
ISOLATED...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE TRACKS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWELL AND
AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING
BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY
WELL AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WE HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND AROUND 2 PM...OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE LEAVING
A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT
SECOND UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF SHOULD KEEP ANY REMNANTS
OF FORMER TS ERIKA WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SECOND UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES L
0001C7FA
OOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN...CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 040-060 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A REPEAT OF MOSTLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE TO NO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OF 6 NM OR LESS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
ISOLATED...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE TRACKS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWELL AND
AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291923
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
223 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS HAVE BROUGHT A STUBBORN MID LVL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
LIMITED WITH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S AND DRY LOW LVLS BENEATH
CLOUD DECK...SO ANY PRECIP THAT SQUEEZES OUT OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
EVE SHOULD BE LGT. SFC LOW SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER SE
LA...ENHANCING THE DRY AIR AS GULF FLOW IS SHUNTED OFF. AS UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN GULF COAST BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WWD...DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING
OVER MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK. BY MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LA...DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN...NOT GIVING UPPER LOW ENOUGH TIME TO APPROACH AREA.

DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SO DO EXPECT VARYING
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALBEIT BECMG SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT BUT WITH LOWER TEMPS STILL EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...AND SOUTH OF THE BLANKETING MID LVLS OVER AR AND EXTREME
NORTHERN LA. EXPECT THE TREND TOWARDS GREATER UNIFORMITY OF BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO CONTINUE...AND SEASONAL...IN
ABSENCE OF ANY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTRY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/MUCH OF N LA...WITH VARIOUS AC CIGS LINGERING FARTHER W OVER NE
TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK NEAR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT
WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE THE CU FIELD
SHOULD DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-15KFT
CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANOTHER SCT CU FIELD
TO AGAIN DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM DEEP E TX INTO
N LA/SCNTRL AR. S WINDS 4-9KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  66  92  68  96 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  72  91  68  94 /  20  20  10   0
TXK  71  92  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  66  92  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  70  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291806
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN CHANDELEUR
SOUND/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUND AREA MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY/SOUTH OF KGPT BETWEEN 19-21Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 040-060
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291806
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN CHANDELEUR
SOUND/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUND AREA MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY/SOUTH OF KGPT BETWEEN 19-21Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 040-060
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291806
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN CHANDELEUR
SOUND/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUND AREA MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY/SOUTH OF KGPT BETWEEN 19-21Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 040-060
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291806
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN CHANDELEUR
SOUND/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUND AREA MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY/SOUTH OF KGPT BETWEEN 19-21Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 040-060
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291752 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/MUCH OF N LA...WITH VARIOUS AC CIGS LINGERING FARTHER W OVER NE
TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK NEAR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT
WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE THE CU FIELD
SHOULD DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-15KFT
CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANOTHER SCT CU FIELD
TO AGAIN DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM DEEP E TX INTO
N LA/SCNTRL AR. S WINDS 4-9KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291752 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/MUCH OF N LA...WITH VARIOUS AC CIGS LINGERING FARTHER W OVER NE
TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK NEAR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT
WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE THE CU FIELD
SHOULD DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-15KFT
CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANOTHER SCT CU FIELD
TO AGAIN DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM DEEP E TX INTO
N LA/SCNTRL AR. S WINDS 4-9KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291752 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/MUCH OF N LA...WITH VARIOUS AC CIGS LINGERING FARTHER W OVER NE
TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK NEAR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT
WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE THE CU FIELD
SHOULD DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-15KFT
CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANOTHER SCT CU FIELD
TO AGAIN DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM DEEP E TX INTO
N LA/SCNTRL AR. S WINDS 4-9KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291752 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
TX/MUCH OF N LA...WITH VARIOUS AC CIGS LINGERING FARTHER W OVER NE
TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK NEAR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDENT
WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WHILE THE CU FIELD
SHOULD DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLIPS S...WITH 10-15KFT
CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL OVER THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ANOTHER SCT CU FIELD
TO AGAIN DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM DEEP E TX INTO
N LA/SCNTRL AR. S WINDS 4-9KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT S
AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WV IMAGERY SHOWING OUR AREA CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE MID LEVELS ON UP, MOISTURE ALOFT IS
INCREASING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

VFR WITH FAIR WX CU, AND LGT/VRBL WINDS WHILE CIRRUS/ALTO CU CIGS
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNON LOWERING THRU 22K FEET TO AROUND 19K
FEET BY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  70  90  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291600
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  69  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /   0  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  89  74 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291600
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  69  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /   0  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  89  74 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291600
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  69  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /   0  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  89  74 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291600
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KLCH RAOB DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H85...SO THE CURRENT WARM
AND DRY FCST IS ON TARGET...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU
EXPECTED. UPDATED PFM WAS SENT WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST
PERIOD HRLY GRIDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  69  92  70 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /   0  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  89  74 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291538
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291538
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291538
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SPREAD MID LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THIS MOIST
LAYER...ONLY ISOLD LGT SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE IN ISOLD
TSTMS FOR THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT YIELD
MUCH THUNDER...HOWEVER IT IS MID SUMMER. HAVE LOWERED AFTN HIGHS
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE OK...AND PORTIONS OF NE TX AND
SW AR...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  85  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  88  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  91  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291203
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291203
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291203
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
703 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF A KTYR-KELD LINE
THROUGH 30/00Z. THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
APPROACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 29/18Z. ANOTHER BAND WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NW INTO OK AND SHOULD FOLLOW
THE SAME TRACK AS THE FIRST BAND. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS
COULD PERSIST AS FAR SE AS KSHV AFTER 30/00Z BUT CHANCES APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY 
00004000
AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  90  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  90  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  90  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CI OVR THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH SOME CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OTHERWISE
VFR WX TO HOLD THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  90  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN
00004000
 LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290826
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  90  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290826
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WE WILL SEE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE.

ALOFT...UPPER LOW OFF THE SE LA/MS COAST WILL LIFT NE TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX
SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BASICALLY PARK OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LATE SUMMER
VALUES...MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

ERIKA...WHICH IS A PRETTY SHEARED AND SLOPPY SYSTEM THIS MORNING...NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FORECAST TRACK...IF IT
SURVIVES...PLACES IT OVER CUBA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
EASTERN GULF BY MON-TUE...MAINLY AFFECTING FL WITH LOTS OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW/TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP IT EAST OF THE
REGION...AND LIKELY VERY SHEARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NOW MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS MAY BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER
LOW OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI...KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  90  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  90  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTENDED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW UP THROUGH THE WRN CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BASE OF THE RESIDENT UPPER
TROF THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE ERN U.S. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME CUT OFF AND IS READILY SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY OVER
SRN MS/AL. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK AND IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE EVEN
SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS ACROSS OUR NRN SECTIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SWD PUSH AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E. AT ANY RATE...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HAVE EVEN
EXTEND
00004000
ED THEM A LITTLE FURTHER SWD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK WEEK...GENERAL
WEAKNESS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THE RETROGRADING
UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR DAILY
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. BY MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVHD...WHICH WILL AID IN PUMPING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW ITSELF AND AN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPS...WITH NO COLD FRONT/TROF OR OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO
TIP US EITHER SIDE OF LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...WE
LOOK TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN THE SEASONAL NORMAL PATH THROUGHOUT THE
FCST PD. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
AS A RESULT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  94  71 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  94  68  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  91  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  93  67  92  68 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  92  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290500
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SOUTH/SSE DIRECTION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290500
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SOUTH/SSE DIRECTION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY./20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/20

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  70  87  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  73  88  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  73  86  74  88 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  73  87  73  89 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VE
00004000
ERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED
AN ELONGATED MEAN MID/UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRISING THE
MEAN TROF ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF BEING QUICKLY ESCORTED TO THE EAST...AND A SOON TO BE CUT0FF
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE IS A SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 20Z OVER
WRN IOWA...WITH A FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW FROM SE NE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. THE NW GULF COAST REGION RESIDES ON THE SW FLANK OF AN
EXPANSIVE ERN CONUS SFC HIGH.

ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 AND SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODIFICATION OF
THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WE HAVE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NC GULF IS FCST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE TOMORROW...WHILE THE LOW/MID LEVEL E-W ORIENTED TROF AXIS
TO OUR SOUTH ALSO LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. BY SUN...THE INCREASING
MSTR DEPTH COUPLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
TEXAS WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH BETTER AREAWIDE
CHANCES TAKING SHAPE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY TROF DIGGING
INTO TEXAS...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...TWD THE MID/LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  69  90  71  89 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0
00002A4F
  20
BPT  70  90  72  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AS A STRONG TWO DEGREE CELSIUS MID-LEVEL CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE. THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT MOST CLOUD DEVELOP ABOVE 800MB
TODAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE HAS BEEN A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING TODAY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WHICH INCREASED PW
VALUES FROM AROUND 0.8 INCHES YESTERDAY TO 1.2 INCHES THIS
EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE STILL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
FOR LATE AUGUST. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  67  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  90  67  92  68 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  89  70  87  71 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  88  73  88  73 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  88  73  86  74 /   0  10  20  20
PQL  89  73  87  73 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AS A STRONG TWO DEGREE CELSIUS MID-LEVEL CAP REMAINS
IN PLACE. THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT
WAS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT MOST CLOUD DEVELOP ABOVE 800MB
TODAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE HAS BEEN A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING TODAY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WHICH INCREASED PW
VALUES FROM AROUND 0.8 INCHES YESTERDAY TO 1.2 INCHES THIS
EVENING. THESE VALUES ARE STILL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
FOR LATE AUGUST. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  67  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  90  67  92  68 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  89  70  87  71 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  88  73  88  73 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  88  73  86  74 /   0  10  20  20
PQL  89  73  87  73 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282358
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  10  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282358
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  10  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282358
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  10  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282358
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE VEERING MORE TO A SSE/S DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY
THEN.

THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THE FOUR
STATE AREA WILL HAVE SOME MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME...BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WILL BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  95  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  66  95  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  67  91  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
TXK  67  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
ELD  64  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /   0  20  10  10
GGG  70  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  69  94  69  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

      
      

  
    
  
  
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