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000088E0000
FXUS64 KLIX 250100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 23.6 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AROUND 2 INCHES.
THERE IS DRIER AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA AS SHOWN ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...BUT THIS FRONT STALLS OUT BEFORE
IT MAKES IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SO
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PW VALUES. OTHERWISE...THE
TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE IS GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER /WARMER/ THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED OF 17 KNOTS IS LOCATED AT
8.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT WILL
PRODUCE A QUICK HALF IN TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF IT GOES THROUGH
YOUR AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOMORROW AN UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME THERE STILL
REMAINS A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THIS WITH GREATER COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. WILL CARRY 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN AN ACTIVE JET
PATTERN AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAIN
BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUB-
LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  10
BTR  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  30  20
ASD  72  92  74  91 /  20  40  40  30
MSY  76  90  76  92 /  20  40  40  30
GPT  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  40  30
PQL  71  91  73  91 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 250100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 23.6 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AROUND 2 INCHES.
THERE IS DRIER AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA AS SHOWN ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...BUT THIS FRONT STALLS OUT BEFORE
IT MAKES IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SO
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PW VALUES. OTHERWISE...THE
TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE IS GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER /WARMER/ THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED OF 17 KNOTS IS LOCATED AT
8.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT WILL
PRODUCE A QUICK HALF IN TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF IT GOES THROUGH
YOUR AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOMORROW AN UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME THERE STILL
REMAINS A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THIS WITH GREATER COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. WILL CARRY 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN AN ACTIVE JET
PATTERN AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAIN
BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUB-
LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  10
BTR  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  30  20
ASD  72  92  74  91 /  20  40  40  30
MSY  76  90  76  92 /  20  40  40  30
GPT  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  40  30
PQL  71  91  73  91 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 250015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET BY GREAT CONTRAST WITH ONLY SOME LATE DAY HEATING WITH
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING/BREAKING ALL DAY. OUR SFC WINDS STILL
REFLECT HAVING THE BACK DOOR (NE) KICKED IN WITH A SORT OF A WEAK
FROPA IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS STRAIGHT LINE WIND STORM. LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
LIFTS AWAY STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY
UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS
IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC...VRB AROUND 5KTS/NE FLOW ALOFT ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 250015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET BY GREAT CONTRAST WITH ONLY SOME LATE DAY HEATING WITH
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING/BREAKING ALL DAY. OUR SFC WINDS STILL
REFLECT HAVING THE BACK DOOR (NE) KICKED IN WITH A SORT OF A WEAK
FROPA IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS STRAIGHT LINE WIND STORM. LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
LIFTS AWAY STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY
UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS
IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC...VRB AROUND 5KTS/NE FLOW ALOFT ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 242344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING KLCH...WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
LIKELIHOOD IS QUITE LOW. A FEW ISLTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING
OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...WELL EAST OF THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS...BUT ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY SW SO KEPT VCTS AT THESE
SITES THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LT VRBL WINDS TONIGHT GRADUALLY BECOMING
SWLY FRIDAY AFTN. ISLTD SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTN WITH BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO THE ACADIANA REGION AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROF IS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TRIES TO EXPAND
TO THE EAST. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS OF THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-10 OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS HUGGING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET HELPS DISSIPATE THE ACTIVITY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MOVE THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP DIG A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN ROUGHLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS BEST PUSH
BEHIND THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH
DECREASING DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AND QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN
GET...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOME
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MAY REACH NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITH TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. AWAY FROM THE
STORMS...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE
ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  75  93  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  72  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10
KLFT  74  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 242344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING KLCH...WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT OVERALL
LIKELIHOOD IS QUITE LOW. A FEW ISLTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING
OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...WELL EAST OF THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS...BUT ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY SW SO KEPT VCTS AT THESE
SITES THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LT VRBL WINDS TONIGHT GRADUALLY BECOMING
SWLY FRIDAY AFTN. ISLTD SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTN WITH BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO THE ACADIANA REGION AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROF IS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TRIES TO EXPAND
TO THE EAST. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS OF THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-10 OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS HUGGING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET HELPS DISSIPATE THE ACTIVITY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MOVE THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP DIG A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN ROUGHLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS BEST PUSH
BEHIND THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH
DECREASING DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AND QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN
GET...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOME
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MAY REACH NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITH TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. AWAY FROM THE
STORMS...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE
ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  75  93  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  72  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10
KLFT  74  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24

000
FXUS64 KLIX 242057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT WILL
PRODUCE A QUICK HALF IN TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF IT GOES THROUGH
YOUR AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOMORROW AN UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME THERE STILL
REMAINS A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THIS WITH GREATER COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. WILL CARRY 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN AN ACTIVE JET
PATTERN AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAIN
BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUB-
LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  10
BTR  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  30  20
ASD  72  92  74  91 /  20  40  40  30
MSY  76  90  76  92 /  20  40  40  30
GPT  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  40  30
PQL  71  91  73  91 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 242057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT WILL
PRODUCE A QUICK HALF IN TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF IT GOES THROUGH
YOUR AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOMORROW AN UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME THERE STILL
REMAINS A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THIS WITH GREATER COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. WILL CARRY 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN AN ACTIVE JET
PATTERN AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAIN
BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUB-
LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  92 /  20  30  30  10
BTR  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  30  20
ASD  72  92  74  91 /  20  40  40  30
MSY  76  90  76  92 /  20  40  40  30
GPT  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  40  30
PQL  71  91  73  91 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 242050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 242050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY
00004000
 AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 242014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROF IS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TRIES TO EXPAND
TO THE EAST. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS OF THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-10 OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS HUGGING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET HELPS DISSIPATE THE ACTIVITY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MOVE THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP DIG A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN ROUGHLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS BEST PUSH
BEHIND THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH
DECREASING DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AND QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN
GET...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOME
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MAY REACH NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITH TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. AWAY FROM THE
STORMS...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE
ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
KBPT  75  93  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  72  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 242014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROF IS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TRIES TO EXPAND
TO THE EAST. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS OF THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-10 OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS HUGGING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET HELPS DISSIPATE THE ACTIVITY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MOVE THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP DIG A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN ROUGHLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS BEST PUSH
BEHIND THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH
DECREASING DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AND QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN
GET...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOME
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MAY REACH NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITH TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. AWAY FROM THE
STORMS...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE
ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
KBPT  75  93  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  72  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 242014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROF IS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TRIES TO EXPAND
TO THE EAST. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS OF THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-10 OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS HUGGING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET HELPS DISSIPATE THE ACTIVITY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MOVE THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP DIG A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN ROUGHLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS BEST PUSH
BEHIND THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH
DECREASING DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AND QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN
GET...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOME
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MAY REACH NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITH TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. AWAY FROM THE
STORMS...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE
ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
KBPT  75  93  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  72  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 242014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OLD ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OF GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROF IS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TRIES TO EXPAND
TO THE EAST. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SHEAR AXIS OF THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-10 OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS HUGGING THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET HELPS DISSIPATE THE ACTIVITY. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MOVE THE OLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND HELP DIG A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...THEN ROUGHLY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS BEST PUSH
BEHIND THE TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH
DECREASING DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AND QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN
GET...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOME
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR MAY REACH NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW THAT MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITH TYPICAL MUGGY SUMMER WEATHER.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES. AWAY FROM THE
STORMS...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE
ACROSS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
KBPT  75  93  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  72  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
IN
00004000
VERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 241717
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING
THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INLAND AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NOTED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPS ENHANCE LAND BREEZE ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PROVIDE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS TROF WILL HELP SHEAR OUT REMNANT UPPER
LEVEL LOW. IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WHAT IS USUAL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER...AND ACTIVITY USUALLY GET GOING A LITTLE LATER. SO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AFTER 1
PM...AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
3 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  91  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  90  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 241717
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING
THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INLAND AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NOTED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPS ENHANCE LAND BREEZE ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PROVIDE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER L
00004000
IGHTNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS TROF WILL HELP SHEAR OUT REMNANT UPPER
LEVEL LOW. IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WHAT IS USUAL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER...AND ACTIVITY USUALLY GET GOING A LITTLE LATER. SO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AFTER 1
PM...AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
3 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  91  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  90  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 241703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 241703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOCALIZED BRIEF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMP
00004000
S IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 241534
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NOTED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPS ENHANCE LAND BREEZE ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PROVIDE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS TROF WILL HELP SHEAR OUT REMNANT UPPER
LEVEL LOW. IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WHAT IS USUAL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER...AND ACTIVITY USUALLY GET GOING A LITTLE LATER. SO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AFTER 1
PM...AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
3 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  91  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  90  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 241534
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NOTED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPS ENHANCE LAND BREEZE ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PROVIDE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS TROF WILL HELP SHEAR OUT REMNANT UPPER
LEVEL LOW. IT WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WHAT IS USUAL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER...AND ACTIVITY USUALLY GET GOING A LITTLE LATER. SO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AFTER 1
PM...AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER
3 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  91  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  90  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 241532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 241532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES
0000297E
. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 241532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 241532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1032 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF
2.06 INCHES...AND A MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 879 J/KG. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY UP TO 150 MB. LOCAL TECHNIQUES FOR DOWNBURST/WET-MICROBURST
POTENTIAL INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW
SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOW LEVEL CAPE AND WIND PROFILE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA. 500 MB TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH
A 1MB DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT
00Z SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT
MID LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START
NEAR THE COAST.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES
WINDS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
00004000

AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241134
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 241128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...AMPLE
00004000
 MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 241128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME NORMAL SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE FORMING ATTM WITH SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS POPS WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS LOW MAKES
IT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...FOR NOW AM CARRYING VCSH ALL SITES
TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR 
00004000
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCU
00004000
SSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240455
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...TSTMS AROUND BPT AND LCH, APPROACHING LFT BUT SHOULD
MISS TO THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH. VCSH
EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND BPT AND LCH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THIS REMNANTS OF AN MCS WHICH MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH.
ADDED VCTS FOR ARA AND AEX THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY ACTING ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND AN UPPER
LOW OVER SE LA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE AT LFT, LCH AND BPT,
NOT SO MUCH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240455
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...TSTMS AROUND BPT AND LCH, APPROACHING LFT BUT SHOULD
MISS TO THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH. VCSH
EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND BPT AND LCH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THIS REMNANTS OF AN MCS WHICH MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH.
ADDED VCTS FOR ARA AND AEX THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY ACTING ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND AN UPPER
LOW OVER SE LA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE AT LFT, LCH AND BPT,
NOT SO MUCH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
...06 TAF ISSUANCE...
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT MCB AND HUM. MVRF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
10 AND 13Z BOTH SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED C
00004000
ONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z
FRIDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
...06 TAF ISSUANCE...
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT MCB AND HUM. MVRF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
10 AND 13Z BOTH SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z
FRIDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  50  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  50  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  50  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  50  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00002B85
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240106
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MMS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240106
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MMS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240056
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
756 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION NOW ALONG INTERSTATE 20 FROM TYLER TO
SHREVEPORT. SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCS FROM ONGOING WATCHES. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  3
00004000
0  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON BURST WSW OF COVINGTON AT A HEIGHT OF
ALMOST 20 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES DESPITE INSTABILITY AND SOME DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 550MB ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. ABOVE 550MB WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 27 KNOTS AT ABOUT 7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON BURST WSW OF COVINGTON AT A HEIGHT OF
ALMOST 20 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES DESPITE INSTABILITY AND SOME DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 550MB ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. ABOVE 550MB WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 27 KNOTS AT ABOUT 7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232346
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION EXITING SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
WATCH 434 REMAINS INTACT AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232346
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION EXITING SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
WATCH 434 REMAINS INTACT AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOM
00004000
E SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SC
00004000
AN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99

000
FXUS64 KLIX 232053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 232053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 232040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
00004000

NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231812 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO INCLUDE SVR WATCH 431 FOR MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER/SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR
THROUGH 01Z. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 1137 AM FOR
REASONING.

15

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN AREA TAFS.
SOME SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...SO WE MAY HAVE TO AMD TXK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231812 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO INCLUDE SVR WATCH 431 FOR MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER/SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR
THROUGH 01Z. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 1137 AM FOR
REASONING.

15

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN AREA TAFS.
SOME SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...SO WE MAY HAVE TO AMD TXK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10
00004000
  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THIS IS
VISIBLY SHOWN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING LOTS OF
CLOUD AND CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE NEW ORLEANS REGION.
LOCALLY...WE ARE SEEING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO
VFR IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR TO RULE.
MOISTURE IS PLENTY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BECAUSE
THE TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE VICINITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS EAST AND SOUTH.
HAVE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS MID AFTERNOON IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...
AFTERNOON SUMMER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALTHOUGH
MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON START. ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE
GOOD FLIGHT PLANS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SOME STORMS IN THE OUTER WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE. INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DI-
URNAL HEATING AND/OR BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST THAT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START DEVELOPING AROUND 1 PM. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76 /  50  20  40  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73 /  40  20  30  10
KLFT  90  73  91  75 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THIS IS
VISIBLY SHOWN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING LOTS OF
CLOUD AND CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE NEW ORLEANS REGION.
LOCALLY...WE ARE SEEING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO
VFR IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR TO RULE.
MOISTURE IS PLENTY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BECAUSE
THE TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE VICINITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS EAST AND SOUTH.
HAVE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS MID AFTERNOON IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...
AFTERNOON SUMMER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALTHOUGH
MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON START. ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE
GOOD FLIGHT PLANS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SOME STORMS IN THE OUTER WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE. INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DI-
URNAL HEATING AND/OR BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST THAT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START DEVELOPING AROUND 1 PM. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76 /  50  20  40  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73 /  40  20  30  10
KLFT  90  73  91  75 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 231703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 231703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD R
00004000
ULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94
00004000
 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SOME STORMS IN THE OUTER WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE. INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DI-
URNAL HEATING AND/OR BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST THAT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START DEVELOPING AROUND 1 PM. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING SWWRD INTO SE LA WILL INDUCE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MLU FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING SWWRD INTO SE LA WILL INDUCE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MLU FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
00004000
 VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PL
00004000
AINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN
00004000
 FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 230906
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 230906
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 230210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAS
00002EEA
T CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230141
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.5
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE MAUREPAS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT/S SOUNDING WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PROFILE WAS FAIRLY MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE
AND ABOVE 700MB. THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PROFILE WAS
1.94 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1750
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -5.7...THOUGH LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WORKING ITS WAY OUT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED FIRST ON THE SOUTHSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND
WASHINGTON PARISH AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO
STRETCH OUT EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW BUT QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN BELOW SUMMER NORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THAT FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER
MAKER IN OUR AREA IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EITHER FRONT HAS ANY
REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF OUR NORMS.

AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER 00Z SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE AREA.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.  HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000-5000 FEET OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
BTR  71  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  30  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230141
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.5
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE MAUREPAS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT/S SOUNDING WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PROFILE WAS FAIRLY MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE
AND ABOVE 700MB. THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PROFILE WAS
1.94 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1750
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -5.7...THOUGH LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WORKING ITS WAY OUT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED FIRST ON THE SOUTHSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND
WASHINGTON PARISH AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO
STRETCH OUT EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW BUT QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN BELOW SUMMER NORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THAT FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER
MAKER IN OUR AREA IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EITHER FRONT HAS ANY
REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF OUR NORMS.

AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER 00Z SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE AREA.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.  HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000-5000 FEET OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
BTR  71  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  30  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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