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0000A259000
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION
CO...UNION PARISH AND CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30.
OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID
TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST. THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE
TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE WATCH POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR TRENDS INTO
HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF TEXARKANA RIGHT
NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WE/LL
WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION
CO...UNION PARISH AND CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30.
OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID
TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST. THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE
TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE WATCH POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR TRENDS INTO
HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF TEXARKANA RIGHT
NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WE/LL
WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEAS
00004000
E BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
00000A01

UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ
00004000
 LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UP
00004000
DATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREAS
00003502
E POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 041153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. INSERTED VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES THIS MORNING EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...THOUGH MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY VS YESTERDAY. FORCED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND A SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIVE NE THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS...THE TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS BE DRIVEN
LARGELY BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOWS.
AS SUCH...INSERTED VCTS AT ALL SITES LATE MORNING...WITH
CONVECTION ENDING BY MID EVENING. VFR TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS 
00004000
SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 041153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. INSERTED VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES THIS MORNING EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...THOUGH MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY VS YESTERDAY. FORCED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND A SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIVE NE THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS...THE TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS BE DRIVEN
LARGELY BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOWS.
AS SUCH...INSERTED VCTS AT ALL SITES LATE MORNING...WITH
CONVECTION ENDING BY MID EVENING. VFR TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NOR
00004000
THEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW
00004000
 LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR P
00004000
ROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 040435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE TNITE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS PER LATEST HRRR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF INTO BPT AND LCH
BEFORE MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED VCTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE 4TH AS THE UPPER TROF BRINGS IN A COOL POOL ALOFT
AND ALLOWS CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  
00004000
88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE 
00004000
IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LA
00004000
NDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KSHV 032327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 032327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72
00004000
  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 032125
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 032125
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOU
000015E3
ISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
00004000
..THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031730
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA BY 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL 03Z FOR AEX. WILL THEN HAVE VCSH THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM I10
CORRIDOR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.  FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE VCSH FOR AREA AIRPORTS AND LET LATER SHIFTS PINPOINT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
.85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031730
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA BY 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL 03Z FOR AEX. WILL THEN HAVE VCSH THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM I10
CORRIDOR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.  FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE VCSH FOR AREA AIRPORTS AND LET LATER SHIFTS PINPOINT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
.85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF
00004000
 THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031730
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA BY 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL 03Z FOR AEX. WILL THEN HAVE VCSH THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM I10
CORRIDOR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.  FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE VCSH FOR AREA AIRPORTS AND LET LATER SHIFTS PINPOINT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
.85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031730
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SUCCESSIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE
SHOWN DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA BY 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL 03Z FOR AEX. WILL THEN HAVE VCSH THERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM I10
CORRIDOR SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.  FOR
NOW...WILL HAVE VCSH FOR AREA AIRPORTS AND LET LATER SHIFTS PINPOINT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
.85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA.

VII

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  89  74  91 /  40  60  40  40
MLU  74  88  73  89 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  70  86  71  86 /  60  60  40  50
TXK  72  87  72  88 /  60  60  40  50
ELD  72  86  72  87 /  60  60  40  50
TYR  74  89  74  91 /  30  40  30  30
GGG  74  90  74  91 /  30  50  40  30
LFK  75  91  74  92 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031548
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  40  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  40  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TY
00004000
R  89  74  89  74 /  40  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  40  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031548
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  40  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  40  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  40  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  40  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031548
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DIFFUSE CONVECTION RESTING RESTING JUST NORTH OF I-30.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR EARLY AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH...AS MID LVL MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. UPDATED FCST FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN POPS FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE...HOWEVER...GENERAL LIKELY POPS WHERE RAIN
CURRENTLY OCCURRING...AND SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH CWA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  40  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  40  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  40  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  40  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031314
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031314
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031314
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
814 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR AND LOWER MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE
TO A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE OCCURRING
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF EXREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTER 04/09Z MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO 04/15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL 5-10 KNOTS LOWERING AFTER 04/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 031255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
755 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG... THOUGH DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. EVIDENCE
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS REPRESENTED BY THE 825 MB CAP AND SLIGHT
INVERSION LAYERS NEAR 550 AND 400 MB. DRIER AIR FROM 850 MB WILL
MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY AS WELL. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN BECOME WESTERLY TO 400 MB.
THE WIND THEN SWITCHES TO NORTHERLY WITH PEAK WIND OF 45 KTS AT
160 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER BERMUDA RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO...WITH UPPER TROF OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO KANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOTHING OVER LAND THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM...

BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY FOR TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON SOME HOLIDAY RELATED
OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL BE LOOKING AT POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
GETTING STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ON SATURDAY
00004000
 WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. 35

LONG TERM...

STILL A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE WESTERN RIDGE
SOMEWHAT MORE THAN THE GFS. GFS DAYTIME POPS RUN 10-20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE GFS POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 RANGE
FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED...LATER FORECASTS MAY REMOVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES. 35

AVIATION...

BKN180 VFR DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS DECK REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
17/TE

MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 17/TE

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  87  73 /  10  20  50  40
BTR  92  75  89  75 /  10  10  50  20
ASD  92  78  89  77 /  10  10  40  30
MSY  92  78  90  77 /  10  10  50  20
GPT  90  79  89  78 /  10  10  40  30
PQL  91  77  88  77 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 031255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
755 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG... THOUGH DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. EVIDENCE
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS REPRESENTED BY THE 825 MB CAP AND SLIGHT
INVERSION LAYERS NEAR 550 AND 400 MB. DRIER AIR FROM 850 MB WILL
MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY AS WELL. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN BECOME WESTERLY TO 400 MB.
THE WIND THEN SWITCHES TO NORTHERLY WITH PEAK WIND OF 45 KTS AT
160 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER BERMUDA RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO...WITH UPPER TROF OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO KANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOTHING OVER LAND THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM...

BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY FOR TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON SOME HOLIDAY RELATED
OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL BE LOOKING AT POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
GETTING STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ON SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. 35

LONG TERM...

STILL A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE WESTERN RIDGE
SOMEWHAT MORE THAN THE GFS. GFS DAYTIME POPS RUN 10-20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE GFS POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 RANGE
FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED...LATER FORECASTS MAY REMOVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES. 35

AVIATION...

BKN180 VFR DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS DECK REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
17/TE

MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 17/TE

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  87  73 /  10  20  50  40
BTR  92  75  89  75 /  10  10  50  20
ASD  92  78  89  77 /  10  10  40  30
MSY  92  78  90  77 /  10  10  50  20
GPT  90  79  89  78 /  10  10  40  30
PQL  91  77  88  77 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 031255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
755 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG... THOUGH DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. EVIDENCE
OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS REPRESENTED BY THE 825 MB CAP AND SLIGHT
INVERSION LAYERS NEAR 550 AND 400 MB. DRIER AIR FROM 850 MB WILL
MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TODAY AS WELL. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN BECOME WESTERLY TO 400 MB.
THE WIND THEN SWITCHES TO NORTHERLY WITH PEAK WIND OF 45 KTS AT
160 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER BERMUDA RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO...WITH UPPER TROF OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO KANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOTHING OVER LAND THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM...

BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY FOR TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON SOME HOLIDAY RELATED
OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL BE LOOKING AT POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
GETTING STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ON SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. 35

LONG TERM...

STILL A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE WESTERN RIDGE
SOMEWHAT MORE THAN THE GFS. GFS DAYTIME POPS RUN 10-20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE GFS POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 RANGE
FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED...LATER FORECASTS MAY REMOVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES. 35

AVIATION...

BKN180 VFR DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS DECK REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
17/TE

MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 17/TE

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  87  73 /  10  20  50  40
BTR  92  75  89  75 /  10  10  50  20
ASD  92  78  89  77 /  10  10  40  30
MSY  92  78  90  77 /  10  10  50  20
GPT  90  79  89  78 /  10  10  40  30
PQL  91  77  88  77 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MIDLVL RIDGING WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMITED AGAIN
TODAY. A FEW SHRA HAVE STREAMED IN OFF THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING
ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA...BUT ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AND DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT LCH OR BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR
TO PREVAIL UNDER SCT CU AND CI TODAY WITH S-SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS. A FEW SHRA COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR AEX LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FM CONVECTION ACRS SE
OK/SRN ARK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
..85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MIDLVL RIDGING WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMITED AGAIN
TODAY. A FEW SHRA HAVE STREAMED IN OFF THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING
ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA...BUT ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AND DO
NOT EX
00004000
PECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT LCH OR BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR
TO PREVAIL UNDER SCT CU AND CI TODAY WITH S-SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS. A FEW SHRA COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR AEX LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FM CONVECTION ACRS SE
OK/SRN ARK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
..85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 031137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MIDLVL RIDGING WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMITED AGAIN
TODAY. A FEW SHRA HAVE STREAMED IN OFF THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING
ACRS SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA...BUT ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AND DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT LCH OR BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR
TO PREVAIL UNDER SCT CU AND CI TODAY WITH S-SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS. A FEW SHRA COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR AEX LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FM CONVECTION ACRS SE
OK/SRN ARK SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
..85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 031013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030940
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME N
00004000
ORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
...85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030940
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR...ESPECIALLY AROUND 70H...AS SEEN ON THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING.
DESPITE THIS...SOME NOCTURNAL STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE...PROVIDING ENOUGH INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO KICK OFF THIS CONVECTION.

WILL START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO
HANDLE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF THE NOCTURNAL JET BY MID-MORNING. FOCUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN TURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN SHOULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SKIRT UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE OF THE 70H RIDGE TO KEEP CONVECTION ON THE QUIET
SIDE...WITH THE AFFECT BEING HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F DEGREES.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. THIS CREATE A WEAKNESS AT 50H...WITH 70H RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...DAYTIME
HEATING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE (MEAN RH AROUND 70
PERCENT AND PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES)...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE BY MID
MORNING...AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING
MAX HEATING LATE ON THE HOLIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AND COOL POOL IS NOTED BY THE PROGS COMING AROUND THE SHORT WAVE.
THIS COULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
3000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPEED MAX
...85H-50H LAPSE RATES...AND 70H-50H DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE
DECENT ENOUGH THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH DOWN BURST WIND POTENTIAL. ALSO OF NOTE FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS...WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND COOL POOL...STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
FIRE WORK DISPLAYS COMMENCE.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS LEFT IN THE RIDGE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

MID LEVEL...70H RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FROM
MONDAY ONWARD...WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND DAILY
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 105F DEGREES.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
STILL LOOKING AT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM SEAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR SHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  75  90  75 /  20  20  50  30
LCH  91  77  90  78 /  20  10  40  20
LFT  92  77  89  76 /  20  10  50  20
BPT  92  76  90  78 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030843
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER BERMUDA RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO...WITH UPPER TROF OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO KANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOTHING OVER LAND THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY FOR TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON SOME HOLIDAY RELATED
OUTDOOR EVENTS. WILL BE LOOKING AT POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
GETTING STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ON SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE WESTERN RIDGE
SOMEWHAT MORE THAN THE GFS. GFS DAYTIME POPS RUN 10-20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. WHILE GFS POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 RANGE
FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED...LATER FORECASTS MAY REMOVE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
MEAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

BKN180 VFR DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS DECK REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
17/TE

&&

.MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 17/TE

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  87  73 /  10  20  50  40
BTR  92  75  89  75 /  10  10  50  20
ASD  92  78  89  77 /  10  10  40  30
MSY  92  78  90  77 /  10  10  50  20
GPT  90  79  89  78 /  10  10  40  30
PQL  91  77  88  77 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030450
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH
MAINLY CIRRUS FLOWING OVERHEAD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO
FOR LIGHT FOG AT KAEX TOWARD DAYBREAK AS VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED THERE. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF
TODAY WITH SRLY WINDS EXCEEDING 10 KNOTS BEING THE PRIMARY ISSUE
AS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS CONVECTION AT BAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT AT A VERY
DRY 1.35 INCHES. HENCE...NO RAINS. TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030450
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH
MAINLY CIRRUS FLOWING OVERHEAD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO
FOR LIGHT FOG AT KAEX TOWARD DAYBREAK AS VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED THERE. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF
TODAY WITH SRLY WINDS EXCEEDING 10 KNOTS BEING THE PRIMARY ISSUE
AS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS CONVECTION AT BAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT AT A VERY
DRY 1.35 INCHES. HENCE...NO RAINS. TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR
00004000
 ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
BEGINNING 03/12Z ACROSS TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/15Z AS THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ARKANSAS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
03/18Z. PRECIP AND WIND TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 04/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE MOST NOTABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS AGAIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITE WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. THESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KHUM AND PERHAPS
EVEN KBTR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE MOST NOTABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS AGAIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITE WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. THESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KHUM AND PERHAPS
EVEN KBTR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE MOST NOTABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS AGAIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITE WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. THESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KHUM AND PERHAPS
EVEN KBTR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE MOST NOTABLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS AGAIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITE WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS. THESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KHUM AND PERHAPS
EVEN KBTR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF APPROACHING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
GRADUALLY WORK SWRD TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM UPDATING DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF APPROACHING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
GRADUALLY WORK SWRD TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM UPDATING DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF APPROACHING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
GRADUALLY WORK SWRD TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM UPDATING DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRO
00004000
UGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF APPROACHING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
GRADUALLY WORK SWRD TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM UPDATING DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030249
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT AT A VERY
DRY 1.35 INCHES. HENCE...NO RAINS. TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030249
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT AT A VERY
DRY 1.35 INCHES. HENCE...NO RAINS. TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
830 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MINIMIZED TODAY DESPITE HIGH INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG AND LI/S APPROACHING HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS WERE UNUTILIZED. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO LACK OF
CONVECTION IS A DROP IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS SEEN
WHEN COMPARING THE SFC TO 600MB REGION TO 12 AND 24 HOURS AGO. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THAT LEVEL.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE...BUT WITH THE EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILT IN OVER THE AREA AM SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME AS IT TRIES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WHEREAS THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC ARE DRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FORM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS NORTH OF I-12 (SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 02/12Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM MCCOMB AT 18Z SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUNDING. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAN THE
NAM...BUT OVERALL OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD
BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

AS WILL BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK...GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CMC AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED. ECMWF AND CMC ARE
MAINLY DRY WITH JUST `GRID POINT STORMS`. THE GFS DEVELOPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS MODEL HANGING
ONTO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PROGRESSING THIS ENERGY. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR A DRIER
FORECAST WITH POP NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...

VFR DECK SCT-BKN 035-040 REST OF THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN TO MID-
LEVEL VFR DECK OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT CUMULUS DECK TO REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 022333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR S
00004000
OME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 022333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 022333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 022333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 022141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL L
00004000
IKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE...BUT WITH THE EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILT IN OVER THE AREA AM SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME AS IT TRIES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WHEREAS THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC ARE DRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FORM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS NORTH OF I-12 (SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 02/12Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM MCCOMB AT 18Z SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUNDING. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAN THE
NAM...BUT OVERALL OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD
BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

AS WILL BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK...GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CMC AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED. ECMWF AND CMC ARE
MAINLY DRY WITH JUST `GRID POINT STORMS`. THE GFS DEVELOPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS MODEL HANGING
ONTO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PROGRESSING THIS ENERGY. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR A DRIER
FORECAST WITH POP NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR DECK SCT-BKN 035-040 REST OF THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN TO MID-
LEVEL VFR DECK OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT CUMULUS DECK TO REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE...BUT WITH THE EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILT IN OVER THE AREA AM SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME AS IT TRIES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WHEREAS THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC ARE DRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FORM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS NORTH OF I-12 (SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 02/12Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM MCCOMB AT 18Z SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUNDING. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAN THE
NAM...BUT OVERALL OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD
BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

AS WILL BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK...GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CMC AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED. ECMWF AND CMC ARE
MAINLY DRY WITH JUST `GRID POINT STORMS`. THE GFS DEVELOPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS MODEL HANGING
ONTO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PROGRESSING THIS ENERGY. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR A DRIER
FORECAST WITH POP NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR DECK SCT-BKN 035-040 REST OF THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN TO MID-
LEVEL VFR DECK OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT CUMULUS DECK TO REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE...BUT WITH THE EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILT IN OVER THE AREA AM SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME AS IT TRIES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WHEREAS THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC ARE DRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FORM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS NORTH OF I-12 (SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 02/12Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM MCCOMB AT 18Z SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUNDING. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAN THE
NAM...BUT OVERALL OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD
BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

AS WILL BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK...GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CMC AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED. ECMWF AND CMC ARE
MAINLY DRY WITH JUST `GRID POINT STORMS`. THE GFS DEVELOPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS MODEL HANGING
ONTO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PROGRESSING THIS ENERGY. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR A DRIER
FORECAST WITH POP NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR DECK SCT-BKN 035-040 REST OF THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN TO MID-
LEVEL VFR DECK OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT CUMULUS DECK TO REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE...BUT WITH THE EXTENSION OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILT IN OVER THE AREA AM SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE ON PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME AS IT TRIES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WHEREAS THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC ARE DRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FORM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS NORTH OF I-12 (SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 02/12Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM MCCOMB AT 18Z SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUNDING. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAN THE
NAM...BUT OVERALL OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD
BE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

AS WILL BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS ANOTHER IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE AREA. AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK...GFS IS THE WETTER MODEL COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CMC AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED. ECMWF AND CMC ARE
MAINLY DRY WITH JUST `GRID POINT STORMS`. THE GFS DEVELOPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS MODEL HANGING
ONTO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PROGRESSING THIS ENERGY. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR A DRIER
FORECAST WITH POP NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR DECK SCT-BKN 035-040 REST OF THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN TO MID-
LEVEL VFR DECK OVERNIGHT...THEN SCT CUMULUS DECK TO REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  73  88 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  73  92  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
ASD  75  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40
MSY  76  92  77  90 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  77  90  78  89 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021958
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL 
00002893
WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021958
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021958
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021958
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

      
      

  
    
  
  
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