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000081CB000
FXUS64 KSHV 311600
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AREA MOVING OUT OF FAR E TX INTO N LA...ALONG AND
JUST S OF I-2O. SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED FROM JUST NW OF
WACO TO JUST W OF PARIS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...AS THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO PIVOT SEWD. FOR THE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE WE`RE RUNNING
EVEN COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST AT MOST SITES...AND CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP WILL KEEP THESE AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND MOVED AREAS OF E TX
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL LA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  75  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  69  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  74  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  74  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  77  68  83  64  88 /  70  30  20  10  10
GGG  76  68  82  65  88 /  70  30  20  10  10
LFK  86  72  86  67  90 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311600
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AREA MOVING OUT OF FAR E TX INTO N LA...ALONG AND
JUST S OF I-2O. SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED FROM JUST NW OF
WACO TO JUST W OF PARIS THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...AS THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO PIVOT SEWD. FOR THE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE WE`RE RUNNING
EVEN COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST AT MOST SITES...AND CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP WILL KEEP THESE AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND MOVED AREAS OF E TX
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL LA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  75  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  69  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  74  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  74  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  77  68  83  64  88 /  70  30  20  10  10
GGG  76  68  82  65  88 /  70  30  20  10  10
LFK  86  72  86  67  90 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311513
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1013 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...SOME THETA TROFFING AT H7 HELPED DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
COAST HAS EXPANDED WEST OF CAMERON. MADE SOME CHANGES KNOCKING DOWN
POPS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING MENTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW AS THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE DFW
AREA HEADS SOUTHEAST. TEMPS LOOKING PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  20  40  50  40  30
KAEX  90  69  85  70  89 /  40  50  50  40  30
KLFT  90  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311318
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. IT IS PRIMARILY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHERE THE MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED AS BELOW 700MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY STILL.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE IN TURN RESPONDED
GOING UP ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM LAST EVENING TO 1.58 INCHES.
THERE ARE A FEW TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING.
THE FIRST IS THE TYPICAL...SUMMERTIME INVERSION NEAR THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY STOUT. WHILE THE SECOND INVERSION LOCATED
BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS WEAKER...IT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TRYING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE AS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING SHOW A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AT 0 J/KG AND A POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO ABOUT 900MB AND ABOVE THIS LEVEL PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE BALLOON/S FLIGHT THIS MORNING ENDED OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.4 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311318
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. IT IS PRIMARILY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHERE THE MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED AS BELOW 700MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY STILL.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE IN TURN RESPONDED
GOING UP ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM LAST EVENING TO 1.58 INCHES.
THERE ARE A FEW TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING.
THE FIRST IS THE TYPICAL...SUMMERTIME INVERSION NEAR THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY STOUT. WHILE THE SECOND INVERSION LOCATED
BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS WEAKER...IT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TRYING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE AS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING SHOW A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AT 0 J/KG AND A POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO ABOUT 900MB AND ABOVE THIS LEVEL PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE BALLOON/S FLIGHT THIS MORNING ENDED OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.4 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311318
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. IT IS PRIMARILY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHERE THE MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED AS BELOW 700MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY STILL.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE IN TURN RESPONDED
GOING UP ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM LAST EVENING TO 1.58 INCHES.
THERE ARE A FEW TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING.
THE FIRST IS THE TYPICAL...SUMMERTIME INVERSION NEAR THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY STOUT. WHILE THE SECOND INVERSION LOCATED
BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS WEAKER...IT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TRYING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE AS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING SHOW A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AT 0 J/KG AND A POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO ABOUT 900MB AND ABOVE THIS LEVEL PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE BALLOON/S FLIGHT THIS MORNING ENDED OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.4 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311318
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. IT IS PRIMARILY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHERE THE MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED AS BELOW 700MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY STILL.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE IN TURN RESPONDED
GOING UP ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM LAST EVENING TO 1.58 INCHES.
THERE ARE A FEW TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING.
THE FIRST IS THE TYPICAL...SUMMERTIME INVERSION NEAR THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY STOUT. WHILE THE SECOND INVERSION LOCATED
BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS WEAKER...IT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TRYING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE AS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING SHOW A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AT 0 J/KG AND A POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO ABOUT 900MB AND ABOVE THIS LEVEL PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE BALLOON/S FLIGHT THIS MORNING ENDED OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.4 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE
00004000
 CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  87  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  89  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  87  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  89  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  87  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  89  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  87  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  89  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  89  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  86  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  88  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  89  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  86  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  88  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COA
00004000
STAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  30  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  20  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  81  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  70  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  76  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  76  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  82  68  83  64  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
GGG  78  68  82  65  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
LFK  88  72  86  67  90 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NON
00004000
E.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  81  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  70  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  76  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  76  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  82  68  83  64  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
GGG  78  68  82  65  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
LFK  88  72  86  67  90 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  81  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  70  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  76  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  76  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  82  68  83  64  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
GGG  78  68  82  65  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
LFK  88  72  86  67  90 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0850Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX AND WAS PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR. AN AXIS OF
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG THE WARM FRONT WAS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME ROBUST CONVECTION JUST W OF THE CWA
BETWEEN KDFW AND KTYR. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR E TX COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...CURRENTLY
EXPECT THIS SRN AREA OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE CWA BUT
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WAS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. A DEVELOPING MCV CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST RADAR LOOPS OVER SE OK.

OVERALL...TODAY/S FCST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS WHICH HAVE NOT REALLY PICKED UP ON THE RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND EVENTUALLY NRN
LA AS THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW SLOWLY ADVANCE. HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30 WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM THE MCV...SFC
LOW..AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD WITH THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS START TO TRAIN BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT ISSUING OF A WATCH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT. CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE ONGOING RAIN BUT
GENERALLY TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  68  82  67  87 /  60  40  30  20  20
MLU  81  66  82  63  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
DEQ  70  64  79  65  85 /  80  30  20  10  10
TXK  76  64  80  65  86 /  80  30  20  10  10
ELD  76  63  81  64  86 /  70  40  30  10  20
TYR  82  68  83  64  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
GGG  78  68  82  65  88 /  60  30  20  10  10
LFK  88  72  86  67  90 /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310743
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
LARGE RAIN SHIELD MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO NE TX AND NW LA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE WAS APPROACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS OF 07Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW
ACROSS N TX WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR A SJT...FST LINE. A
SLOW RETURNING WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX
TO JUST WEST OF A TYR/LFK/LCH LINE. FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR THIS
WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

AS OF 07Z...CEILINGS REMAIN VFR ATTM WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS
AROUND 5KFT UNDERNEATH THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WITH MUCH HIGHER
CEILINGS NEAR 10KFT AT THE SHV/MLU TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST...ENCOMPASSING
MORE OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS TODAY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
THE TOP DOWN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CEILING WISE BY LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX/NW LA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND IF WE CAN SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SSE AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT THE ELD/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WIND SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NNW BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRI AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WITH
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL SHIFT EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE 12Z FRI TIMEFRAME
AT THE SHV/LFK TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  69  83  69  87 /  50  40  30  20  20
MLU  82  67  83  68  87 /  50  40  40  30  30
DEQ  72  64  80  65  85 /  60  20  20  10  10
TXK  77  64  81  67  86 /  60  30  20  10  10
ELD  77  64  82  66  86 /  60  40  30  10  20
TYR  83  68  84  70  88 /  50  30  20  10  10
GGG  82  68  83  69  88 /  50  40  20  10  10
LFK  90  72  87  71  90 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310743
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
LARGE RAIN SHIELD MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO NE TX AND NW LA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE WAS APPROACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS OF 07Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW
ACROSS N TX WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR A SJT...FST LINE. A
SLOW RETURNING WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX
TO JUST WEST OF A TYR/LFK/LCH LINE. FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR THIS
WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

AS OF 07Z...CEILINGS REMAIN VFR ATTM WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS
AROUND 5KFT UNDERNEATH THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD WITH MUCH HIGHER
CEILINGS NEAR 10KFT AT THE SHV/MLU TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST...ENCOMPASSING
MORE OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS TODAY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
THE TOP DOWN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CEILING WISE BY LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX/NW LA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND IF WE CAN SEE SOME DESTABILIZATION...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SSE AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT THE ELD/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WIND SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NNW BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRI AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS WITH
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL SHIFT EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE 12Z FRI TIMEFRAME
AT THE SHV/LFK TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  69  83  69  87 /  50  40  30  20  20
MLU  82  67  83  68  87 /  50  40  40  30  30
DEQ  72  64  80  65  85 /  60  20  20  10  10
TXK  77  64  81  67  86 /  60  30  20  10  10
ELD  77  64  82  66  86 /  60  40  30  10  20
TYR  83  68  84  70  88 /  50  30  20  10  10
GGG  82  68  83  69  88 /  50  40  20  10  10
LFK  90  72  87  71  90 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310516 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS AGAIN REDEVELOPED OVER SE
OK/N TX NEAR AND N OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX...ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX INTO SE TX. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR DTO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BNDRY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO THUNDER INTO THESE
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR 10KFT GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
TIME AS THE SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK/SW AR...WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND/AFTER 12Z ACROSS SW AR. IN ADDITION...LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE TX AND ADVECT N INTO DEEP E TX AROUND 12Z AS
WELL. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/NW LA BY 12Z...WITH IT POSSIBLY DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM W TO E BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...AS A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC FRONT SHIFT ESE INTO E TX. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE E TX/SHV
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FG LOOK TO SET IN LATE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSE AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HA
000025F9
S
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310516 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS AGAIN REDEVELOPED OVER SE
OK/N TX NEAR AND N OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX...ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX INTO SE TX. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR DTO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING SE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BNDRY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO THUNDER INTO THESE
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL CIGS NEAR 10KFT GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
TIME AS THE SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK/SW AR...WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND/AFTER 12Z ACROSS SW AR. IN ADDITION...LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE TX AND ADVECT N INTO DEEP E TX AROUND 12Z AS
WELL. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/NW LA BY 12Z...WITH IT POSSIBLY DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM W TO E BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK...AS A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC FRONT SHIFT ESE INTO E TX. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE E TX/SHV
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FG LOOK TO SET IN LATE ACROSS E TX/WRN LA. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SSE AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310454
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP
FROM THE TOP DOWN AND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WILL
INSERT PROB30 TSRA AFTER 18Z NEAR BTR...HDC AND MCB. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310454
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP
FROM THE TOP DOWN AND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WILL
INSERT PROB30 TSRA AFTER 18Z NEAR BTR...HDC AND MCB. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310307
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT S
000016A2
AID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310224
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
924 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTED A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPED BY A 4400-FOOT FRONTAL INVERSION.

THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE 5000 TO
10000-FOOT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINED THE
SAME. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND 1.63 INCHES (ABOUT 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE JULY).

A STATIONARY FRONT SPOKES FROM A FRONTAL-WAVE LOW VICINITY DALLAS
THROUGH BEAUMONT TO THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO (25N 88W.)

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR WHERE
RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...WEAK ADVECTIVE WARMING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE (CONTINGENT ON THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT).

THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  67  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310224
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
924 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTED A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPED BY A 4400-FOOT FRONTAL INVERSION.

THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE 5000 TO
10000-FOOT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINED THE
SAME. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND 1.63 INCHES (ABOUT 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE JULY).

A STATIONARY FRONT SPOKES FROM A FRONTAL-WAVE LOW VICINITY DALLAS
THROUGH BEAUMONT TO THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO (25N 88W.)

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR WHERE
RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...WEAK ADVECTIVE WARMING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE (CONTINGENT ON THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT).

THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
TH
00004000
U MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  67  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310110
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

UNUSUALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
MEASURED AT 1.07 INCHES /AGAIN...2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. FOR REFERENCE...FROM 1948-2013 THE
MINIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS 0.65 INCHES. AS ONE WOULD SUSPECT WITH THE DRY
AIR...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE THIS EVENING WITH NO INSTABILITY
/CAPE/ AND A POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX. WINDS WERE PRIMARILY FROM THE
NORTH BELOW 700MB AND THEN BACKED TO BLOWING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ABOVE 300MB. THE 00Z BALLOON FLIGHT ENDED OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AT A HEIGHT OF ALMOST 21 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION TODAY
WILL UNFORTUNATELY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AMPLE MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND
SATELLITE RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT INITIALLY AND THEN WORK DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
PROSPECT OF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE VORT LOBE DESCENDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AMPLE
FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES...SO ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE
TO THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIRMASS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LESS OVERALL COVERAGE AS PW VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND THE VORT LOBE ALOFT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES STILL AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE IN PLACE. WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP A
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
THE CONTINUED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER.

THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LESS OMEGA IN
PLACE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES CLOSER TO 1.8
INCHES...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A BIT. HAVE PUT IN
CHANCE POPS...BUT THE POP IS CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT AS OPPOSED TO 50
PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BACK TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP FROM
THE TOP DOWN AND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION TODAY...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 22/TD

MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL BE
VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST
BOATING IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING A GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING HAZARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS
EACH DAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  87  69  87 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  65  89  72  89 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  64  88  69  88 /  10  20  20  40
MSY  72  88  74  87 /  10  20  20  40
GPT  66  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  40
PQL  62  88  67  88 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310110
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

UNUSUALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
MEASURED AT 1.07 INCHES /AGAIN...2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. FOR REFERENCE...FROM 1948-2013 THE
MINIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS 0.65 INCHES. AS ONE WOULD SUSPECT WITH THE DRY
AIR...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE THIS EVENING WITH NO INSTABILITY
/CAPE/ AND A POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX. WINDS WERE PRIMARILY FROM THE
NORTH BELOW 700MB AND THEN BACKED TO BLOWING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ABOVE 300MB. THE 00Z BALLOON FLIGHT ENDED OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AT A HEIGHT OF ALMOST 21 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION TODAY
WILL UNFORTUNATELY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AMPLE MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND
SATELLITE RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT INITIALLY AND THEN WORK DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
PROSPECT OF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE VORT LOBE DESCENDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AMPLE
FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES...SO ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE
TO THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIRMASS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LESS OVERALL COVERAGE AS PW VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND THE VORT LOBE ALOFT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES STILL AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE IN PLACE. WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP A
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
THE CONTINUED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER.

THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LESS OMEGA IN
PLACE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES CLOSER TO 1.8
INCHES...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A BIT. HAVE PUT IN
CHANCE POPS...BUT THE POP IS CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT AS OPPOSED TO 50
PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BACK TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP FROM
THE TOP DOWN AND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION TODAY...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 22/TD

MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL BE
VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST
BOATING IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING A GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING HAZARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS
EACH DAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  87  69  87 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  65  89  72  89 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  64  88  69  88 /  10  20  20  40
MSY  72  88  74  87 /  10  20  20  40
GPT  66  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  40
PQL  62  88  67  88 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310004 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS 
00004000
THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310004 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310004 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310004 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302311
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302311
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNE
00004000
SS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 302034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION TODAY
WILL UNFORTUNATELY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AMPLE MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND
SATELLITE RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT INITIALLY AND THEN WORK DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
PROSPECT OF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE VORT LOBE DESCENDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AMPLE
FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES...SO ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE
TO THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIRMASS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LESS OVERALL COVERAGE AS PW VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND THE VORT LOBE ALOFT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES STILL AROUND 2
INCHES AND A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE IN PLACE. WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP A
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
THE CONTINUED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER.

THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LESS OMEGA IN
PLACE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES CLOSER TO 1.8
INCHES...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A BIT. HAVE PUT IN
CHANCE POPS...BUT THE POP IS CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT AS OPPOSED TO 50
PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE BACK TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP FROM
THE TOP DOWN AND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION TODAY...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL BE
VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST
BOATING IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING A GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING HAZARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS
EACH DAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  87  69  87 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  65  89  72  89 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  64  88  69  88 /  10  20  20  40
MSY  72  88  74  87 /  10  20  20  40
GPT  66  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  40
PQL  62  88  67  88 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302022
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302022
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50 
00004000
 40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  40  40  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  30  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  70  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  50  60  40  30  10
TYR  74  83  68  84  70 /  50  40  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  40  40  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301754
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICT THE BEGINNINGS
OF A CU FIELD AT KBPT AS SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS COMMENCED THERE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT RETURN TO
BOTH KBPT/KLCH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW SPREADS EWD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301754
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICT THE BEGINNINGS
OF A CU FIELD AT KBPT AS SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS COMMENCED THERE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT RETURN TO
BOTH KBPT/KLCH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW SPREADS EWD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE SW AR BY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCT SHOWER AND TSTMS
TO THEN AFFECT E TX AND N LA AT TIME DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3K FEET
PER CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK THIS
MORNING...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS QUITE
WELL. RAIN IS FCST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD INTO N LA/SRN AR
THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW APPROACHES. CURRENT
POP FCST IS ON TRACK...BUT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY MAY RUN A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS OF E TX N OF I-20...AS DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK THIS
MORNING...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS QUITE
WELL. RAIN IS FCST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD INTO N LA/SRN AR
THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW APPROACHES. CURRENT
POP FCST IS ON TRACK...BUT MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY MAY RUN A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS OF E TX N OF I-20...AS DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/
00004000
FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  78  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  81  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  84  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  93  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  90  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  90  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRIER
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 80S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND LOW 70S
S
00004000
OUTH OF THE LAKE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY IT
LOOKS AS IF THE AREA COULD HAVE A SMALL INVERSION TO DEAL WITH AND
IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING. NOW...IF THE SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER THEN THAT SHOULD HELP IN
OVERCOMING THAT INVERSION. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND FORECAST FRONTAL
PLACEMENTS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CURRENT
STALLED FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PULL SAID
FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DECREASE IN POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SREF...HI-
RES WRF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE..ECMWF ALL COME IN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AREA THURSDAY WHILE SHOWING A DECAYING AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WITH ALL OF THIS
HAVE DECIDED TO BACK POPS DOWN ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOW FOR FRIDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POPS ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WILL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOME INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL HAVE
THE TENDENCY TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF
VORTICITY WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WEAK AREA OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
BOTH DAYS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT KNEW WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
DRY AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...BUT EXPECT THIS TO RELAX
IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT HOIST HEADLINES. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  64  87  68 /  10  10  30  40
BTR  89  66  91  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  89  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  30
MSY  88  73  90  74 /  10  10  10  30
GPT  89  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  87  64  89  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRIER
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 80S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY IT
LOOKS AS IF THE AREA COULD HAVE A SMALL INVERSION TO DEAL WITH AND
IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING. NOW...IF THE SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER THEN THAT SHOULD HELP IN
OVERCOMING THAT INVERSION. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND FORECAST FRONTAL
PLACEMENTS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CURRENT
STALLED FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PULL SAID
FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DECREASE IN POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SREF...HI-
RES WRF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE..ECMWF ALL COME IN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AREA THURSDAY WHILE SHOWING A DECAYING AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WITH ALL OF THIS
HAVE DECIDED TO BACK POPS DOWN ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOW FOR FRIDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POPS ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WILL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOME INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL HAVE
THE TENDENCY TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF
VORTICITY WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WEAK AREA OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
BOTH DAYS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT KNEW WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
DRY AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...BUT EXPECT THIS TO RELAX
IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT HOIST HEADLINES. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  64  87  68 /  10  10  30  40
BTR  89  66  91  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  89  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  30
MSY  88  73  90  74 /  10  10  10  30
GPT  89  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  87  64  89  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRIER
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 80S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY IT
LOOKS AS IF THE AREA COULD HAVE A SMALL INVERSION TO DEAL WITH AND
IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING. NOW...IF THE SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER THEN THAT SHOULD HELP IN
OVERCOMING THAT INVERSION. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND FORECAST FRONTAL
PLACEMENTS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CURRENT
STALLED FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PULL SAID
FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DECREASE IN POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SREF...HI-
RES WRF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE..ECMWF ALL COME IN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AREA THURSDAY WHILE SHOWING A DECAYING AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WITH ALL OF THIS
HAVE DECIDED TO BACK POPS DOWN ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOW FOR FRIDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POPS ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WILL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOME INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL HAVE
THE TENDENCY TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF
VORTICITY WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WEAK AREA OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
BOTH DAYS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT KNEW WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
DRY AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...BUT EXPECT THIS TO RELAX
IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT HOIST HEADLINES. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  64  87  68 /  10  10  30  40
BTR  89  66  91  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  89  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  30
MSY  88  73  90  74 /  10  10  10  30
GPT  89  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  87  64  89  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRIER
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 80S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY IT
LOOKS AS IF THE AREA COULD HAVE A SMALL INVERSION TO DEAL WITH AND
IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING. NOW...IF THE SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER THEN THAT SHOULD HELP IN
OVERCOMING THAT INVERSION. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND FORECAST FRONTAL
PLACEMENTS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CURRENT
STALLED FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PULL SAID
FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DECREASE IN POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SREF...HI-
RES WRF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE..ECMWF ALL COME IN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AREA THURSDAY WHILE SHOWING A DECAYING AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WITH ALL OF THIS
HAVE DECIDED TO BACK POPS DOWN ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOW FOR FRIDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POPS ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WILL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOME INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL HAVE
THE TENDENCY TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF
VORTICITY WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WEAK AREA OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
BOTH DAYS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT KNEW WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
DRY AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...BUT EXPECT THIS TO RELAX
IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT HOIST HEADLINES. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE L
00004000
EGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  64  87  68 /  10  10  30  40
BTR  89  66  91  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  89  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  30
MSY  88  73  90  74 /  10  10  10  30
GPT  89  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  87  64  89  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300902
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  79  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  85  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  86  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  90  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300902
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS...THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SW KS...DIVES SEWD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETURN NWD
FROM THE GULF OF MX WHILE A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO E TX BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR...MAINLY
JUST N OF THE CWA...ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP A FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW WHERE VERTICAL ASCENT
MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX. MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING NEAR THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD. STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS FOR FLOOD HEADLINES.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNALLY BASED DAYTIME CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
MLU  85  66  82  66  83 /  10  30  40  40  40
DEQ  79  64  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  20  10
TXK  85  66  79  64  82 /  40  70  60  30  20
ELD  86  65  78  63  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  90  72  83  68  83 /  20  50  40  30  20
GGG  89  71  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  40  20
LFK  92  73  90  71  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300843
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  93  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  90  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  90  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300731
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  69  82  68  83 /  20  50  40  40  20
MLU  86  66  81  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
DEQ  77  64  76  64  80 /  50  80  60  20  10
TXK  82  66  77  65  82 /  50  70  60  30  10
ELD  84  65  77  64  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  82  69  83 /  20  50  40  30  10
GGG  88  71  82  69  84 /  20  50  40  30  20
LFK  93  73  89  72  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300731
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE THE S LA
COAST BUT SNAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST INTO SE AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. ALREADY SEEING ESE TO SE
WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE RETURNING BOUNDARY.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BUT A QUICK LOOK TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH REGION RADAR
MOSAICS SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL OK NC/NW
TX. THIS MOISTURE IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON IF THE HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED. OTHER OPERATIONS PROGS HAVE THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING/
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY SEE A CU FIELD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE MID CLOUD DECK BY LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON.

ESE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SSE ACROSS NE TX BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF AN ESE COMPONENT CONTINUING ACROSS
OUR REMAINING TERMINALS TODAY/TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 5 TO
10KTS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS NE TX.

/13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  69  82  68  83 /  20  50  40  40  20
MLU  86  66  81  67  83 /  20  40  40  40  30
DEQ  77  64  76  64  80 /  50  80  60  20  10
TXK  82  66  77  65  82 /  50  70  60  30  10
ELD  84  65  77  64  82 /  30  50  60  30  20
TYR  88  72  82  69  83 /  20  50  40  30  10
GGG  88  71  82  69  84 /  20  50  40  30  20
LFK  93  73  89  72  86 /  20  20  40  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300507 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1207 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF AC HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS
OF E TX...BUT OTHER AREAS OF AC HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER N
TX/SE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ESE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS...THE INCREASING CIRRUS...AND DRIER AIR IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SHOULD INHIBIT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE AC SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT AFTER
12Z OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AS AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF OK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND N OF A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST S OF THE RED RIVER OF NW TX. SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF -RA SPREAD E FROM THE AC BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR...AND HAVE
INCLUDED -RA MENTION FOR THE TXK TERMINAL ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY -RA THAT FALLS SHOULD NOT AFFECT VSBYS OR
CIGS...BEFORE IT TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES FOR THE EVENING. COULD
ALSO SEE A WEAK CU FIELD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY BENEATH THE AC
SHIELD...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT QUICKLY SPILL SE INTO NE TX/SW AR BY 12Z.
THUS...SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THAT TIME. E
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE AD
00004000
DED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300507 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1207 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/06Z TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF AC HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS
OF E TX...BUT OTHER AREAS OF AC HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER N
TX/SE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ESE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS...THE INCREASING CIRRUS...AND DRIER AIR IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SHOULD INHIBIT PATCHY FG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE AC SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT AFTER
12Z OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...AS AREAS OF CONVECTION INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF OK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND N OF A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST S OF THE RED RIVER OF NW TX. SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF -RA SPREAD E FROM THE AC BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR...AND HAVE
INCLUDED -RA MENTION FOR THE TXK TERMINAL ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY -RA THAT FALLS SHOULD NOT AFFECT VSBYS OR
CIGS...BEFORE IT TEMPORARILY DIMINISHES FOR THE EVENING. COULD
ALSO SEE A WEAK CU FIELD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY BENEATH THE AC
SHIELD...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...BUT QUICKLY SPILL SE INTO NE TX/SW AR BY 12Z.
THUS...SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THAT TIME. E
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE 
00004000
FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300221
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. ITS SOUTHERN EDGE IS MARKED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM GALVESTON TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DRIER
AIR COLUMN...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EARLY-MORNING SOUNDING. ]
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED BY 0.70 INCHES...TO 1.63 INCHES
(OVER 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY)

THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRACE REVEALD A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION
AROUND THE 5500-FOOT LEVEL.

ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...AS TRAVELING CANADIAN AIR
...MODIFIED BY ITS LONG TREK ACROSS THE WARM GROUND...SNEAKS INTO
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

THE STRONGEST ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49
STRETCH BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND LAFAYETTE. THE WEAKEST ADVECTIVE
COOLING WILL BE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE.

WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTH TO NW TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND BECOME NE TO EAST WED UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  91  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KBPT  72  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KAEX  65  90  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
KLFT  67  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300221
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. ITS SOUTHERN EDGE IS MARKED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM GALVESTON TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DRIER
AIR COLUMN...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EARLY-MORNING SOUNDING. ]
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED BY 0.70 INCHES...TO 1.63 INCHES
(OVER 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY)

THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRACE REVEALD A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION
AROUND THE 5500-FOOT LEVEL.

ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...AS TRAVELING CANADIAN AIR
...MODIFIED BY ITS LONG TREK ACROSS THE WARM GROUND...SNEAKS INTO
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

THE STRONGEST ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49
STRETCH BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND LAFAYETTE. THE WEAKEST ADVECTIVE
COOLING WILL BE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE.

WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTH TO NW TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND BECOME NE TO EAST WED UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  91  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KBPT  72  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KAEX  65  90  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
KLFT  67  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300056
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SAMPLED AT
1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO QUITE EVIDENT WHEN YOU WALK
OUT THE DOOR WITH THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD BEING AROUND 10
THIS EVENING AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY BETWEEN
800MB AND 550MB AND THERE IS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE
800-750MB LEVEL AS WELL. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE
TEMPERATURE IS LOWER /COOLER/ BELOW 800MB AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE
ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING AND THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 42
KNOTS WAS LOCATED 7.8 MILES. TONIGHT/S BALLOON TERMINATED OVER
EASTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE IT BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.7
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND ON THURSDAY...AS A VORT MAX
SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS VORT MAX AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION HAS INCREASED.

LONG TERM...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
DIFFUSE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF VORTICITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BE
00004000
 GREATER DURING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY AND THEN FURTHER CONVECTION WILL SPARK OFF THE RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BASICALLY BE THE NORMAL
SUMMER ROUTINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN
NORMAL.

AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300056
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SAMPLED AT
1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO QUITE EVIDENT WHEN YOU WALK
OUT THE DOOR WITH THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD BEING AROUND 10
THIS EVENING AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY BETWEEN
800MB AND 550MB AND THERE IS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE
800-750MB LEVEL AS WELL. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE
TEMPERATURE IS LOWER /COOLER/ BELOW 800MB AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE
ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING AND THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 42
KNOTS WAS LOCATED 7.8 MILES. TONIGHT/S BALLOON TERMINATED OVER
EASTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE IT BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.7
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND ON THURSDAY...AS A VORT MAX
SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS VORT MAX AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION HAS INCREASED.

LONG TERM...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
DIFFUSE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF VORTICITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BE GREATER DURING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY AND THEN FURTHER CONVECTION WILL SPARK OFF THE RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BASICALLY BE THE NORMAL
SUMMER ROUTINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN
NORMAL.

AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300056
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SAMPLED AT
1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO QUITE EVIDENT WHEN YOU WALK
OUT THE DOOR WITH THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD BEING AROUND 10
THIS EVENING AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY BETWEEN
800MB AND 550MB AND THERE IS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE
800-750MB LEVEL AS WELL. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE
TEMPERATURE IS LOWER /COOLER/ BELOW 800MB AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE
ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING AND THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 42
KNOTS WAS LOCATED 7.8 MILES. TONIGHT/S BALLOON TERMINATED OVER
EASTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE IT BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.7
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND ON THURSDAY...AS A VORT MAX
SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS VORT MAX AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION HAS INCREASED.

LONG TERM...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
DIFFUSE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF VORTICITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BE GREATER DURING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY AND THEN FURTHER CONVECTION WILL SPARK OFF THE RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BASICALLY BE THE NORMAL
SUMMER ROUTINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN
NORMAL.

AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300056
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SAMPLED AT
1.21 INCHES...WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO QUITE EVIDENT WHEN YOU WALK
OUT THE DOOR WITH THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD BEING AROUND 10
THIS EVENING AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY BETWEEN
800MB AND 550MB AND THERE IS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE
800-750MB LEVEL AS WELL. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE
TEMPERATURE IS LOWER /COOLER/ BELOW 800MB AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE
ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING AND THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 42
KNOTS WAS LOCATED 7.8 MILES. TONIGHT/S BALLOON TERMINATED OVER
EASTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE IT BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.7
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND ON THURSDAY...AS A VORT MAX
SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS VORT MAX AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION HAS INCREASED.

LONG TERM...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
DIFFUSE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF VORTICITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BE GREATER DURING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY AND THEN FURTHER CONVECTION WILL SPARK OFF THE RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BASICALLY BE THE NORMAL
SUMMER ROUTINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN
NORMAL.

AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARE EXPE
00004000
CTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292353 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292353 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292353 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292353 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTH TO NW TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND BECOME NE TO EAST WED UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KBPT  74  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KAEX  67  90  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
00004000

KLFT  71  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89 /  10  10  10  30
KBPT  74  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  30
KAEX  67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  71  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89 /  10  10  10  30
KBPT  74  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  30
KAEX  67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  71  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND ON THURSDAY...AS A VORT MAX
SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS VORT MAX AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION HAS INCREASED.

.LONG TERM...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
DIFFUSE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF VORTICITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BE GREATER DURING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY AND THEN FURTHER CONVECTION WILL SPARK OFF THE RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BASICALLY BE THE NORMAL
SUMMER ROUTINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND ON THURSDAY...AS A VORT MAX
SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS VORT MAX AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION HAS INCREASED.

.LONG TERM...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
DIFFUSE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT BY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AND WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF VORTICITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WEAK AREA OF
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BE GREATER DURING THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY AND THEN FURTHER CONVECTION WILL SPARK OFF THE RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS PATTERN WILL BASICALLY BE THE NORMAL
SUMMER ROUTINE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT WITH SOME INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING LONGER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY...AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  88  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
BTR  66  89  66  90 /   0  10  20  40
ASD  65  89  65  88 /   0  10  20  40
MSY  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  66  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  87  63  89 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$
00004998
$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN COOLER...
DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH...HAVE
DECIDED TO REDUCE POP COVERAGE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES IN LOUISIANA
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE. AFTER
REVIEWING OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE ALSO RAISED SKY COVER
GRIDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY COVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION OFFSHORE TO
SLOWLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA...AND HAVE DRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  65  88  66 /  10  10  10  30
BTR  92  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  91  67  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  90  75  90  75 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  93  68  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  90  66  88  67 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH...HAVE
DECIDED TO REDUCE POP COVERAGE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES IN LOUISIANA
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE. AFTER
REVIEWING OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE ALSO RAISED SKY COVER
GRIDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY COVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION OFFSHORE TO
SLOWLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA...AND HAVE DRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  65  88  66 /  10  10  10  30
BTR  92  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  91  67  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  90  75  90  75 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  93  68  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  90  66  88  67 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL SE TX OUT OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS SOUTH YET SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE BPT TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE VCTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AT
LFT AND ARA WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY THIS EVENING. CAVOK AT AEX.
LIGHT NE WINDS FOR ALL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION PROVING A BIT STUBBORN OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS A NET SOUTHWARD SHIFT TAKING PLACE. SENT
ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IS SFC OBS...BUT
APPEARS TO SLICE ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LA COASTLINE. VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SE THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES REGION HELPING
TO INITIATE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE TX AND OUT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MDLS DEPICT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR.

REMAINING CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR AND TO BRING HOURLY FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW S OF THE SE TX/SW LA
COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE JUST S OF THE SC LA COAST IGNITING A
BKN LINE OF TSRA JUST S OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S NOW ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE TODAY
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS C LA TO NEAR/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUED ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER BY SUN AND MON AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROF SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS THE
FRONT BACK NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  73  90  74  89 /  30  20  20  10  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  89 /  60  20  20  10  30
KAEX  91  68  90  70  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
KLFT  91  71  90  72  90 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL SE TX OUT OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS SOUTH YET SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE BPT TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE VCTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AT
LFT AND ARA WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY THIS EVENING. CAVOK AT AEX.
LIGHT NE WINDS FOR ALL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION PROVING A BIT STUBBORN OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS A NET SOUTHWARD SHIFT TAKING PLACE. SENT
ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IS SFC OBS...BUT
APPEARS TO SLICE ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LA COASTLINE. VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SE THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES REGION HELPING
TO INITIATE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE TX AND OUT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MDLS DEPICT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR.

REMAINING CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR AND TO BRING HOURLY FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW S OF THE SE TX/SW LA
COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE JUST S OF THE SC LA COAST IGNITING A
BKN LINE OF TSRA JUST S OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S NOW ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE TODAY
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS C LA TO NEAR/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUED ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER BY SUN AND MON AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROF SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS THE
FRONT BACK NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  73  90  74  89 /  30  20  20  10  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  89 /  60  20  20  10  30
KAEX  91  68  90  70  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
KLFT  91  71  90  72  90 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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