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0000A018000
FXUS64 KSHV 180551 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -SHRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/EXTREME
ERN TX...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCT -SHRA FARTHER W OVER SE OK/N TX
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...CIGS HAVE
BECOME MVFR...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NE
TX/SE OK...AND SHOULD SPREAD E INTO EXTREME SW AR/NW LA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...VFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH
MVFR/SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. THE SCT -SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z...BUT STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA. EVEN WHILE THE -SHRA
DIMINISHES...PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN -DZ SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CIGS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MUCH /IF AT ALL/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...IFR
CIGS SHOULD EXPAND AREAWIDE...WITH PERIODS OF -DZ POSSIBLE AS WELL
UNTIL SCT -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX/SRN LA AND
EXPAND N ACROSS E TX/N LA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. ENE WINDS 4-7KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMA
00004000
S EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT A LITTLE SHORTER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. LOST WIND DATA AT
ABOUT 80K FEET...AND FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI IN THE SANDHILL CRANE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 88.1K FEET OR 16.7 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.59 INCHES...WHICH IS 68 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 920 MB. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 825 AND
725 MB...BUT THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE 400 MB WHICH IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 2500 FEET TO
10000 FEET WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS ABOVE THAT. MAX WIND WESTERLY
AT 107 KNOTS AT 44.5K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 13K FEET...AND
-20C LEVEL AT 23.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT A LITTLE SHORTER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. LOST WIND DATA AT
ABOUT 80K FEET...AND FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI IN THE SANDHILL CRANE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 88.1K FEET OR 16.7 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.59 INCHES...WHICH IS 68 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 920 MB. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 825 AND
725 MB...BUT THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE 400 MB WHICH IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 2500 FEET TO
10000 FEET WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS ABOVE THAT. MAX WIND WESTERLY
AT 107 KNOTS AT 44.5K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 13K FEET...AND
-20C LEVEL AT 23.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GUL
00004000
F OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNT
00004000
S OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172216
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE
00004000
 IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172216
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAM
00001451
E PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PD...AS SHWRS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY OUT OF THE E
AT 4-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS 
00004000
SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PD...AS SHWRS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY OUT OF THE E
AT 4-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SHROUDED IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DESERT SW. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS
SFC/LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SERLY...ADVECTING IN MORE GULF
MOISTURE. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ERN TX IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SMALL POPS ARE
INSERTED LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PUSHING FARTHER
EWD AS WELL AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS LATE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SHROUDED IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DESERT SW. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS
SFC/LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SERLY...ADVECTING IN MORE GULF
MOISTURE. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ERN TX IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SMALL POPS ARE
INSERTED LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PUSHING FARTHER
EWD AS WELL AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS LATE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUN
00004000
TIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171719
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171719
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE
00004000
 CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  64  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  59  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  64  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUS
00004000
SION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  64  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  59  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  64  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171121
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING AC DECK ACROSS MOST OF NE TX
NOW...QUICKLY MOVING INTO SW AR AND NW LA. INITIAL CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 10-8KFT WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWERING TO NEAR 4-5KFT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS
ALSO DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OK. THIS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A
STRONGLY VEERED LOWER 5KFT WIND PROFILE ALSO HELPING FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE ABOVE REGION AS
WELL.

FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING...HAVE CEILINGS
STEADILY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VCSH MENTION AT THE TYR/TXK
TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 18Z...WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT AFTERNOON -RA.
GRADUALLY BRING THESE CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINING
TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AS WE SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.
CEILINGS COULD BEGIN BECOMING MVFR AS EARLY AS 00Z ACROSS SOME OF
OUR NE TX TERMINALS DEPENDING UPON JUST HOW FAST THIS SATURATION
PROCESS OCCURS. OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR
WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WITH -SHRA WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION
BEING THE MLU TERMINAL WHICH MAY NOT GET IN ON THE PRECIP UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE 18/12Z TIMEFRAME.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A E OR ESE DIRECTION
TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171111
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  64  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  59  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  64  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER W
000019CD
ILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170919
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT).
00004000
 THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170919
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170919
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170600 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 17/06Z TAF
PERIOD. THIN CIRRUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
6-8KFT CIGS ALONG AND W OF A MWL...TO CPT...TO ACT AND CLL LINE AS
OF 05Z EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND
INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 12-16Z. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AREAS OF -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER
WCNTRL AND N TX BY DAYBREAK AND RAPIDLY SPREADING E THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX/SE OK BY OR
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. -RA SHOULD THEN SPREAD ENE INTO SW AR/EXTREME
NW LA BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN. NO VSBYS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SOME TIME AFTER THE -RA BEGINS...ALTHOUGH 3-6SM VSBYS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 00Z ACROSS E TX AS HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WITH THE -RA. LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170520
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170520
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  
00004000
70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERA
00004000
GES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY NOW...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO TWEAKED LOWS A BIT AND EDITED OCCURENCE
TO MID MORNING WITH PERHAPS WEAK UPTICK ON TEMPS TOWARD DAWN. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE 39 OVER 35 HERE AT THE SHV AIRPORT AND LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALREADY SOME CALM
LOCALES. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT MUCH AND THE CLOUDS
ARE POISED IN THE NEAR DISTANCE WITH OVERCAST MIDDECK NEAR WACO
TX. THIS MID DECK WILL OVERSPREAD MANY OF TEXAS COUNTIES BY
SUNRISE. WE HAVE HAND EDITED LOW AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR THE COMPLEX TROUGH ON THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST IS DIGGING AND LIFTING SOME GOOD MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. THE DAYS 1-3 WPC QPF AGREE WITH 2 TO 3 INCH
EVENT TOTALS BY FRIDAY SUNDOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  33  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  37  53  43  60  49 /  10  30  70  30  60
GGG  34  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  38  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH ACRS THE NRN/CNTL PLAINS
TO THE NW GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR BUT SOME THIN CI IS
STREAMING EAST OVER THE REGION AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 SOUTH BY MORNING. CURRENT
FCST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  39  60  49  66 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  62  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH ACRS THE NRN/CNTL PLAINS
TO THE NW GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR BUT SOME THIN CI IS
STREAMING EAST OVER THE REGION AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 SOUTH BY MORNING. CURRENT
FCST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  39  60  49  66 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  62  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH ACRS THE NRN/CNTL PLAINS
TO THE NW GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR BUT SOME THIN CI IS
STREAMING EAST OVER THE REGION AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 SOUTH BY MORNING. CURRENT
FCST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIG
00004000
H TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  39  60  49  66 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  62  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH ACRS THE NRN/CNTL PLAINS
TO THE NW GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR BUT SOME THIN CI IS
STREAMING EAST OVER THE REGION AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 SOUTH BY MORNING. CURRENT
FCST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  39  60  49  66 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  62  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH ACRS THE NRN/CNTL PLAINS
TO THE NW GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR BUT SOME THIN CI IS
STREAMING EAST OVER THE REGION AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 SOUTH BY MORNING. CURRENT
FCST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  39  60  49  66 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  62  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FM THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTH ACRS THE NRN/CNTL PLAINS
TO THE NW GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR BUT SOME THIN CI IS
STREAMING EAST OVER THE REGION AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH...NEAR 40 SOUTH BY MORNING. CURRENT
FCST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  39  60  49  66 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  62  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND SOUTH OF
PASCAGOULA JUST NORTH OF THE EAST END OF HORN ISLAND. BALLOON
BURST AT 110.2K FEET...OR ABOUT 20.9 MILES UP.

AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW DOWN TO 0.38 INCHES...ABOUT 45
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO 1.18 LAST EVENING. INVERSIONS FROM
ABOUT 940 MB TO AROUND 750 MB THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM THE
SURFACE INVERSION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BECOME WESTERLY BY 700 MB...AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH
THE TROPOPAUSE. WIND MAX BELOW 100 MB WAS 67 KNOTS AT 38.2K FEET.
35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY 
00004000
FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND SOUTH OF
PASCAGOULA JUST NORTH OF THE EAST END OF HORN ISLAND. BALLOON
BURST AT 110.2K FEET...OR ABOUT 20.9 MILES UP.

AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW DOWN TO 0.38 INCHES...ABOUT 45
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO 1.18 LAST EVENING. INVERSIONS FROM
ABOUT 940 MB TO AROUND 750 MB THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM THE
SURFACE INVERSION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BECOME WESTERLY BY 700 MB...AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH
THE TROPOPAUSE. WIND MAX BELOW 100 MB WAS 67 KNOTS AT 38.2K FEET.
35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162331 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS
00004000
 SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162331 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 8KFT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD E INTO E TX/SE
OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY FROM CNTRL TX. THESE CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD E INTO SW AR/N LA BETWEEN 15-19Z. AREAS OF -RA WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER WCNTRL AND N TX BY 12Z AS WELL...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. -RA WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NE TX/SE OK/EXTREME SW AR BETWEEN
18-22Z...LIKELY AFFECTING THE TYR/TXK/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE -RA SETS IN...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER /BUT REMAIN VFR/ AS THE COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE
TOP DOWN...WITH THE -RA AFFECTING N LA/SW AR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
SFC RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING E 4-7KTS AFTER 15Z
ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  40  61  50  68  58 /  10  10  20  40  50
KBPT  41  62  54  70  60 /  10  10  20  40  60
KAEX  36  58  46  60  51 /  10  10  30  40  70
KLFT  40  63  49  70  57 /  10   0  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL VEER NE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE BY WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  40  61  50  68  58 /  10  10  20  40  50
KBPT  41  62  54  70  60 /  10  10  20  40  60
KAEX  36  58  46  60  51 /  10  10  30  40  70
KLFT  40  63  49  70  57 /  10   0  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162227
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  40  61  50  68 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  63  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162227
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
427 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE NE CONUS...A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROF JUST ENTERING THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTE
00004000
NDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER A COOLISH START THIS MORNING...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD...YIELDING LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST HIGH CIRRUS
MAKING SOME INROADS INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARD EARLY MORNING...BUT
AN OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO KICK OUT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TWD THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...WITH A SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER EAST/COASTAL TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
MSTR BACK INTO THE REGION. BY WED NIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THIS LEAD WAVE LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THIS WARM AIR/MSTR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT
SHARPENING AND LIFTING FARTHER INLAND AS A SECOND AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH NRN MX INTO WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER
COASTAL SE TX/LA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH NEAR 60 READINGS OVER
INTERIOR SE TX/CENTRAL LA IN THE COOL SECTOR. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF NEAR THE TX COAST...SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACKING ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS POPS WERE FURTHER
INCREASED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SHEAR/HELICITY PROGS ARE
ADEQUATE...BUT INSTABILITY/CAPE PROGS APPEARED LIMITED.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS COAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. RAINS WILL END AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  40  61  50  68 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  41  62  54  70 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  36  58  46  60 /  10  10  30  40
KLFT  40  63  49  70 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLIX 162157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 162157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE
00004000
 UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1151 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE PANHANDLE. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME
EASTERLY AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS...WITH A DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON ON TAP. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO SFC DEWPOINTS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50  69 /   0  10  10  10  30
KBPT  64  42  60  54  69 /   0  10  10  10  40
KAEX  59  36  57  46  60 /   0  10  10  10  50
KLFT  64  39  61  48  69 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1151 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE PANHANDLE. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME
EASTERLY AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS...WITH A DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON ON TAP. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO SFC DEWPOINTS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50  69 /   0  10  10  10  30
KBPT  64  42  60  54  69 /   0  10  10  10  40
KAEX  59  36  57  46  60 /   0  10  10  10  50
KLFT  64  39  61  48  69 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 161747
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER

AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DE
00004000
PLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 161747
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER

AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161718
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161718
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161718
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161718
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHO
00004000
ULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161642
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS...WITH A DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON ON TAP. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO SFC DEWPOINTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50 /   0  10  10  10
KBPT  64  42  60  54 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  59  36  57  46 /   0  10  10  10
KLFT  64  39  61  48 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161642
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS...WITH A DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON ON TAP. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO SFC DEWPOINTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50 /   0  10  10  10
KBPT  64  42  60  54 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  59  36  57  46 /   0  10  10  10
KLFT  64  39  61  48 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161642
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS...WITH A DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON ON TAP. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO SFC DEWPOINTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASI
00004000
NG OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50 /   0  10  10  10
KBPT  64  42  60  54 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  59  36  57  46 /   0  10  10  10
KLFT  64  39  61  48 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161642
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS...WITH A DRY AND MILD AFTERNOON ON TAP. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO SFC DEWPOINTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50 /   0  10  10  10
KBPT  64  42  60  54 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  59  36  57  46 /   0  10  10  10
KLFT  64  39  61  48 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDY SKIES ARE GIVING WAY TO MSTLY CLR SKIES AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU
THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LA COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCT SHRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLEARING
LINE IS ROUGHLY FROM BPT TO JUST N OF LCH TO OPL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE S AS WELL AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD. WITH CONTINUED CAA TODAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. WED MORNING EXPECTED
TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THIS SNAP...WITH MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED N
OF I-10...NEAR 40/LOWER 40S FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD.

WED AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AS THE HIGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIP EAST...BUT RATHER INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE
THE REGION AS THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD. BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF STRENGTH AND ESPECIALLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...WHICH ALL POINTS NOW FORMING OFF THE TX COAST AND
MOVING NE OVER OUR REGION. THUS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING OVER INLAND SE TX BY THU MORNING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW WILL
BRING AN AREAWIDE SHIELD OF SHRA/TSRA. A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT STILL LOOKING TO BE AN
AREAWIDE SOAKER.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM W TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF/SFC LOW
MOVES EAST...LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY
MON.

DML

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20
KNOTS...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER
AND NORTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  40  60  50  69 /  10  10  10  10  30
KBPT  62  42  60  54  69 /  10  10  10  10  40
KAEX  59  36  57  46  60 /  10  10  10  10  50
KLFT  64  39  61  48  69 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BU
00004000
T MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRAD
00000D00
UALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  51  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  54  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160945
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...
A
00002951
 BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160945
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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