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0000ABB2000
FXUS64 KSHV 311716
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Very active aviation day for sites to our west so far today but
pretty quiet closer to home. Nice cu field has developed across
all terminals early this afternoon and with additional heating...
expect to see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing...some of which could impact our terminal sites.
Added VCTS to all sites this afternoon/evening except for the
LFK/MLU/ELD terminals which based on the latest data coming in...
it appears like coverage would be to isolated to warrant a
mention. As expected...expect lower ceilings/vsbys and strong/
gusty winds in and around tsra today through this evening.
Confidence is not very high on just how much continuation we will
see with this activity through the overnight hours so kept it out
of this taf package for now. What we should see is increasing mid
and high level clouds from the west which could help to prevent
very low vsbys in a few locations in the morning so just added
minimal 3-5SM across most locations a couple hours either side of
sunrise which much lower vsby and/or ceiling restriction possible
at the LFK terminal.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weak surface boundary is the focus of convection across southern
Oklahoma this morning. This broken line of thunderstorms to
possibly make it to McCurtain County and adjacent counties in
Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas by early afternoon.
Otherwise, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
across the region with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
Current forecast is on track, no updates at this time. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  86  70  83 /  30  40  60  60
MLU  70  87  71  86 /  20  30  40  50
DEQ  67  82  67  79 /  50  70  60  60
TXK  68  82  68  81 /  40  60  60  60
ELD  69  84  69  82 /  30  40  60  60
TYR  69  83  68  81 /  40  70  60  70
GGG  69  84  69  81 /  40  60  60  70
LFK  70  85  70  82 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311223
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
723 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
A fairly quiet night is giving way to morning with generally VFR
conditions noted at the terminal sites. Despite reasonable low-
level moisture noted in forecast time-height sections...the lack
of good moisture aloft and focus mechanisms (along with capping
noted around h8 per forecast soundings) should keep most convection
at bay today.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...Weak ridging is in place across the region at the
surface and aloft this morning and will remain in place through
the day. This will keep the precip chances low, however isolated
late morning through afternoon storms will be possible. What
convection does develop will die off after sunset as daytime
heating is lost.

By Wednesday and Thursday the pattern begins to become more wet.
A low pressure system over the northern plains will send a cold
front into North LA and N TX while an upper level low over the
desert southwest moves closer to provide upper divergence.
Moisture will stream ahead of the incoming cold front while
moisture is also pulled in by the upper low. The upper low is
forecast to cut off over South Texas while the front remains in
the region through the weekend. The front may drift to near the
gulf coast during the weekend. This will provide multiple days of
high rain chances with the chance of some being heavy at times.

Early next week an upper trough deepens across the eastern half of
the country. This shears out the cut off upper low and allows a
drier NW flow to develop pushing the front into the gulf. Drier
weather is forecast as this occurs.

MARINE...Weak ridging will remain stretched into the coastal
waters from the east through Thursday. This will keep a light to
perhaps moderate onshore flow in place. While winds are expected
to remain generally light and southeast Friday and Saturday
scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible. A
frontal boundary may move to the coast and stall by Saturday night
or Sunday making winds more variable. The front will push away
from the coast early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  69  88  70 /  20  10  20  20
LCH  89  71  87  71 /  20  10  20  30
LFT  91  72  88  71 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  89  72  87  72 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310835
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
335 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Another round of afternoon thunderstorms expected today. The CWA
is currently under weak upper level ridge influences from high
pressure thats centered over Mexico. Separate troughs are located
over the northern Rockies and Desert Southwest. Surface high
overhead has shifted offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Convection will once again be driven by daytime heating and likely
initiate along seabreeze boundaries. Movement for the most part
will be dictated by outflow boundaries but model soundings show
there might be enough mid level wind to produce a slow eastward
movement of storms. Also of note in those soundings are a repeat
of an inverted-v in the lower levels and wetbulb height of around
11kft. Those characteristics of the sounding would suggest the
possibility of marginally severe thunderstorms with downbursts and
smaller hail to be the main threats. For actual rain chance
forecast, 2/3`s of the area have around 30% while the far western
zones are closer to 20 as those locations are closer to the ridge
and subjected to more subsidence. Above normal temperatures will
persist with highs in the lower 90s. Movement of the upper ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico will aide in "shielding" the CWA from
convection being able to initiate, at least not widespread enough
to even have any mention of rain in the forecast except possibly
on the outer fridge of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...
The southern of those 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually
track east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central
Texas by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper
ridge in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result
in a noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across
the forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend which will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus have increased rain chances to nearly 70% on Saturday and 50s
to 60 for Sunday.

Early next week is becoming more uncertain. The GFS suggests the
broad trough passing over the southeastern CONUS will progress far
enough south to shift all activity offshore and nearly completely
absorbing the southern trough. The ECMWF keeps these features more
separate and the southern trough gets left behind which would keep
rain in place over the local area. So haven`t made any changes to
the forecast beyond Sunday.

MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected outside sh/ts coverage today which will
dissipate shortly after dark. Some reduced vis and lower ceilings
can be expected in rain cooled areas by Wed morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure over the north gulf to maintain light
winds and low seas for much of the week.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  67  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
BTR  92  69  90  69 /  20  20  10  10
ASD  92  70  90  71 /  30  30  10  10
MSY  91  73  88  72 /  30  30  10  10
GPT  91  73  88  73 /  20  20  10  10
PQL  91  68  88  68 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310500
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24-30 hours. The exceptions
are KMCB and KHUM where some MVFR conditions due to vsby
restrictions in light fog are forecast later tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Only isolated SHRA/TSRA are expected Tuesday
afternoon, so there is no mention in the TAFS at this time.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

Discussion...
Not much change in the forecast this afternoon. High pressure
still in place over the area. Afternoon showers and storms have
developed over the forecast area today as we had a relatively low
convective temperature this afternoon so storms were easy to fire
along the lake and seabreezes this afternoon. We can expect more
of the same over the next few days. Again we climb into the upper
80s and lower 90s for Tuesday. Our convective temperature Tuesday
looks to be in the 87 to 89 degree range so if we hit that mark in
temperature the atmosphere will be more readily able to produce
storms. Any afternoon storms will have the potential to produce
heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Rain chances and coverage
goes up the latter half of the week and into the weekend as a cold
front approaches the area. Looking at the model guidance it looks
as if a southern stream shortwave approaches the area with the
front on Thursday. This will help shower and storm development and
it will take northern stream energy to help sweep everything out
of the area. That relief does not come until at least Sunday. So
with that in mind will carry 40 to 60 percent pops for Friday
through Sunday. As long as that boundary is in place there will be
chances of showers and storms especially during the daytime hours.
13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside of seabreeze induced tsra/shra
coverage this evening, which should dissipate shortly after 02z.
downburst gust potential 30-35 kt prior to 00z. similar situation
appears to be on tap for tuesday with convection igniting on trigger
temperature in the upper 80s and lower 90s along gulf and lake
breeze boundary interactions. 24/RR

MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure over the north gulf to maintain light
winds and low seas for much of the week. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  93  69  92 /  30  20  20  20
BTR  69  92  69  91 /  30  20  20  20
ASD  70  92  71  91 /  30  20  20  10
MSY  72  91  73  91 /  30  20  20  10
GPT  72  91  73  90 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  68  91  72  90 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310433
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Cluster of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms were
affecting ktxk tonight, with the activity gradually moving to the
Northeast. Do not expect this precipitation activity to remain
there all night given its` slow Northeastward translation, but
additional development is not out of the question. Will therefore
hold on to -SHRA VCTS for several more hours. Otherwise, once the
showers finally dissipates/exits the region, another round of VFR
to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 923 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
outflow boundary bisecting area from ne half to sw half. leaving
in isold pops ne half given current isold activity which began to
diminish at sunset. leaving out pops sw half of area. 0z sounding
at kshv not impressive for convection either overnight. Expect
temps to fall to near current dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s, from
current temps mainly near the mid 70s attm./vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.

The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  88  70  86 /  20  20  30  40
MLU  69  89  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  66  84  67  82 /  20  30  50  70
TXK  67  87  68  82 /  20  30  40  60
ELD  67  89  66  84 /  20  30  30  40
TYR  69  86  69  83 /  10  20  40  70
GGG  67  87  68  84 /  10  20  40  60
LFK  67  87  68  85 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310207
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
907 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The late afternoon/early evening convection in central Louisiana
has lifted out of our region. Current forecast looks good with no
updates anticipated tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Contg to see hi clds movg in fm the w this eve. Cld decks
running around 040 to 060 w/ aftn dvlpmnt but this will fall
apart aftr ss. Looking for vfr wx to hold thru midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Earlier upper air analysis showed the mid/upper level ridge a
little weaker today with some height falls, as weak short wave,
noted on water vapor imagery from southern Oklahoma to lower
Texas, moves eastward. Latest integrated precipitable water values
from GPS-MET data, indicates better moisture also in play today
with values between 1.5 and 1.6 inches. With max daytime heating,
a few showers and thunderstorms are developing, mainly near sea
breeze and near Atchafalaya Basin convergence. This activity will
continue until early evening, with the loss of daytime heating.
Expect another fair and stable night, with the possibility of
some light patchy fog near sunrise.

Upper level ridging looks to be stronger again on Tuesday as short
wave exits the region. Therefore, hot and humid day, with very
limited chances for showers, and if any do develop, it will be
during the max heating time frame.

By mid week, northern stream trough will deepen some and help push
an upper level low to the east and begin to weaken upper level
ridge. As the northern stream trough departs on Thursday, it will
leave behind the upper level low over western Texas.

This cut off low, will meander slowly to the east across Texas
from the end of the week into the weekend. With no cap and low
convective temperatures, there will be high rain chances starting
late Thursday over southeast Texas, then over the entire forecast
area from Friday through the weekend.

This scenario usually means the possibility of heavy rainfall for
portions of the forecast area. Details this far out are hard to
pinpoint. However, progs do show deep Gulf moisture moving into
the region with Precipitable Water values between 1.75 and 2
inches, and Mean Relative Humidity values over 80 percent. Flow
aloft will become more divergent as upper level low nears to
provide lift to get activity going and enhance it. Progs also show
weak mid level winds and low bulk shear numbers from 0-6km, which
could mean slow storm movement, or training if any low level
mesoscale boundaries form. Just some of the ingredients needed for
the heavy rainfall.

Early next week, upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the
western U.S. with upper level trough developing over the eastern
U.S. This would place the forecast area in a drier northwest flow
aloft, that would help shear out upper low and push deeper
moisture to the east and south.

Rua

MARINE...
Weak surface ridge continues across the coastal waters this
afternoon with mainly light and variable winds. Onshore winds will
be a little bit stronger near shore and for the coastal lakes and
bays through early evening with a developing sea breeze.

For the remainder of the period, center of the surface ridge will
move slightly to the east and over the north central and northeast
Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for mainly light onshore winds,
and in turn, relatively low seas, to prevail.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  91  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
LCH  70  89  71  88 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  72  91  71  89 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  71  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302348
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
648 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Contg to see hi clds movg in fm the w this eve. Cld decks
running around 040 to 060 w/ aftn dvlpmnt but this will fall
apart aftr ss. Looking for vfr wx to hold thru midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Earlier upper air analysis showed the mid/upper level ridge a
little weaker today with some height falls, as weak short wave,
noted on water vapor imagery from southern Oklahoma to lower
Texas, moves eastward. Latest integrated precipitable water values
from GPS-MET data, indicates better moisture also in play today
with values between 1.5 and 1.6 inches. With max daytime heating,
a few showers and thunderstorms are developing, mainly near sea
breeze and near Atchafalaya Basin convergence. This activity will
continue until early evening, with the loss of daytime heating.
Expect another fair and stable night, with the possibility of
some light patchy fog near sunrise.

Upper level ridging looks to be stronger again on Tuesday as short
wave exits the region. Therefore, hot and humid day, with very
limited chances for showers, and if any do develop, it will be
during the max heating time frame.

By mid week, northern stream trough will deepen some and help push
an upper level low to the east and begin to weaken upper level
ridge. As the northern stream trough departs on Thursday, it will
leave behind the upper level low over western Texas.

This cut off low, will meander slowly to the east across Texas
from the end of the week into the weekend. With no cap and low
convective temperatures, there will be high rain chances starting
late Thursday over southeast Texas, then over the entire forecast
area from Friday through the weekend.

This scenario usually means the possibility of heavy rainfall for
portions of the forecast area. Details this far out are hard to
pinpoint. However, progs do show deep Gulf moisture moving into
the region with Precipitable Water values between 1.75 and 2
inches, and Mean Relative Humidity values over 80 percent. Flow
aloft will become more divergent as upper level low nears to
provide lift to get activity going and enhance it. Progs also show
weak mid level winds and low bulk shear numbers from 0-6km, which
could mean slow storm movement, or training if any low level
mesoscale boundaries form. Just some of the ingredients needed for
the heavy rainfall.

Early next week, upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the
western U.S. with upper level trough developing over the eastern
U.S. This would place the forecast area in a drier northwest flow
aloft, that would help shear out upper low and push deeper
moisture to the east and south.

Rua

MARINE...
Weak surface ridge continues across the coastal waters this
afternoon with mainly light and variable winds. Onshore winds will
be a little bit stronger near shore and for the coastal lakes and
bays through early evening with a developing sea breeze.

For the remainder of the period, center of the surface ridge will
move slightly to the east and over the north central and northeast
Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for mainly light onshore winds,
and in turn, relatively low seas, to prevail.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  91  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
LCH  70  89  71  88 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  72  91  71  89 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  71  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302312
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms intermittently
affecting ktxk, keld and kmlu early this evening. Can not rule out
the other TAF sites getting some rain later this evening as an
outflow boundary pushing southwest thus nearing kshv has aided to
generate isolated shower activity. Have therefore elected to hold
on to either VCSH, VCTS, -SHRA in one form or another for all TAF
sites until several hours after sunset. Once the convection
diminishes, another round of VFR to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS
will be possible overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.

The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Abundant mid and high level cloud cover this morning has
suppressed cu development across much of the region with the
exception being the eastern half of La. Already starting to see
some shra development east of the SHV terminal and west of the MLU
terminal where this cu has been towering. For the 18z taf
package...have decided to prevail VCTS at both the ELD and MLU
terminals for the remainder of the afternoon through the evening
hours. Further west...uncertainty exists given the mid and high
level cloud cover but there is a remnant MCV somewhere underneath
this cloud cover north of the I-20 corridor in NE TX which could
provide the lift necessary for at least widely scattered tsra
later today/this evening. Will have to handle this with an AMD if
necessary.

Winds will be light and variable except where shra/tsra develops.
Made mention of some vsby restrictions towards the predawn hours
on Tue assuming that we lose the mid and high cloud cover which
the newest progs suggest will happen. Otherwise...expect a growing
cu field across the region through the mid and late morning hours
on Tue.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  88  70  86 /  20  20  30  40
MLU  69  89  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  66  84  67  82 /  30  30  50  70
TXK  67  87  68  82 /  30  30  40  60
ELD  67  89  66  84 /  20  30  30  40
TYR  69  86  69  83 /  20  20  40  70
GGG  67  87  68  84 /  20  20  40  60
LFK  67  87  68  85 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 302021
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.

The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Abundant mid and high level cloud cover this morning has
suppressed cu development across much of the region with the
exception being the eastern half of La. Already starting to see
some shra development east of the SHV terminal and west of the MLU
terminal where this cu has been towering. For the 18z taf
package...have decided to prevail VCTS at both the ELD and MLU
terminals for the remainder of the afternoon through the evening
hours. Further west...uncertainty exists given the mid and high
level cloud cover but there is a remnant MCV somewhere underneath
this cloud cover north of the I-20 corridor in NE TX which could
provide the lift necessary for at least widely scattered tsra
later today/this evening. Will have to handle this with an AMD if
necessary.

Winds will be light and variable except where shra/tsra develops.
Made mention of some vsby restrictions towards the predawn hours
on Tue assuming that we lose the mid and high cloud cover which
the newest progs suggest will happen. Otherwise...expect a growing
cu field across the region through the mid and late morning hours
on Tue.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  88  70  86 /  20  20  30  40
MLU  69  89  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  66  84  67  82 /  30  30  50  70
TXK  67  87  68  82 /  30  30  40  60
ELD  67  89  66  84 /  20  30  30  40
TYR  69  86  69  83 /  20  20  40  70
GGG  67  87  68  84 /  20  20  40  60
LFK  67  87  68  85 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301726
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected all terminals through 31/18Z though
some brief showers and isolated thunderstorms may briefly reduce
to MVFR between 18Z and 01Z. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 803 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Moisture is back up a bit in the sounding this morning with PW at
1.64 inches. A subsidence inversion has formed at 950 mb though
this cap is expected to mix out with peak heating today as
convective temperature is reached. 925 mb temperature is near the
daily max in the climatology at 22.2 C. Still with the high
pressure in place local boundaries will be needed to provide the
lift... which we will have from the lake/sea breeze. Yesterday was
nearly dry across the area though scattered late afternoon airmass
storms are expected today. Some could be strong with mixed layer
CAPE near 1800 J/KG and modest mid level lapse rates near 6.0
C/KM. Winds are light and variable to 500 mb then the flow
becomes northwesterly aloft.

Krautmann

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern
with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of
the Rockies. Surface high overhead will lead to light and variable
winds today. Convection through Tuesday will diurnal with
scattered coverage beginning late morning and carrying over into
the late afternoon hours. Weak flow pattern means storm movement
will be erratic and outflow driven. Model soundings show a very
pronounced inverted-V, so should have some fairly gusty conditions
in the more intense storms. Above normal temperatures will persist
with highs around 90 degrees.

LONG TERM...
The southern of 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually track
east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central Texas
by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper ridge
in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result in a
noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend when will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus kept previous forecast of around 50 percent pops through
Sunday.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

FG and low ceilings at HUM this morning but other sites should stay
above 2sm this morning. VFR at all sites for at least the majority
of the day. sh/ts activity would be the only variable that could
cause IFR conditions but that would mainly be for BTR and HUM. If
any showers do occur near or at any terminal today, fog would be
likely overnight.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters. Variable winds of generally less than 10 knots will persist
today. Seas will be 2 feet or less. A cold front will move close to
the area by next weekend, but no other major issues seen over the
marine environment through the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  92  70 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  92  70  91  70 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  91  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  90  73  90  74 /  30  10  20  10
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301303
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
803 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Moisture is back up a bit in the sounding this morning with PW at
1.64 inches. A subsidence inversion has formed at 950 mb though
this cap is expected to mix out with peak heating today as
convective temperature is reached. 925 mb temperature is near the
daily max in the climatology at 22.2 C. Still with the high
pressure in place local boundaries will be needed to provide the
lift... which we will have from the lake/sea breeze. Yesterday was
nearly dry across the area though scattered late afternoon airmass
storms are expected today. Some could be strong with mixed layer
CAPE near 1800 J/KG and modest mid level lapse rates near 6.0
C/KM. Winds are light and variable to 500 mb then the flow
becomes northwesterly aloft.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern
with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of
the Rockies. Surface high overhead will lead to light and variable
winds today. Convection through Tuesday will diurnal with
scattered coverage beginning late morning and carrying over into
the late afternoon hours. Weak flow pattern means storm movement
will be erratic and outflow driven. Model soundings show a very
pronounced inverted-V, so should have some fairly gusty conditions
in the more intense storms. Above normal temperatures will persist
with highs around 90 degrees.

LONG TERM...
The southern of 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually track
east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central Texas
by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper ridge
in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result in a
noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend when will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus kept previous forecast of around 50 percent pops through
Sunday.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

FG and low ceilings at HUM this morning but other sites should stay
above 2sm this morning. VFR at all sites for at least the majority
of the day. sh/ts activity would be the only variable that could
cause IFR conditions but that would mainly be for BTR and HUM. If
any showers do occur near or at any terminal today, fog would be
likely overnight.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters. Variable winds of generally less than 10 knots will persist
today. Seas will be 2 feet or less. A cold front will move close to
the area by next weekend, but no other major issues seen over the
marine environment through the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  92  70 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  92  70  91  70 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  91  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  90  73  90  74 /  30  10  20  10
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301252
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
752 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 30/12Z terminal forecast expecting sites to have brief
mvfr categories in mist/br with visibility restrictions of 3-5
statute miles and in the showers and thunderstorms over parts of
East and Northeast Texas. Convection will be slowly eroding in the
mid to late morning for the Texas and Oklahoma, and Southwest
Arkansas region. VFR conditions are expected to remain through
much of the overnight hours with MVFR categories possible late.
Surface winds will be light and variable to South 5-10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The MCS, while slowly weakening, has persisted and should be
moving in the western fringes of the CWA within the next hour or
two. Have updated the grids in the short-term to increase PoPs and
QPF, accordingly.

Updated text products will be sent shortly.

/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Another night and another large convective complex is ongoing
across the Southern Plains west of the CWA. The strongest storms
in this complex should remain well southwest of the area.
Thunderstorms are a bit more robust and are maintaining themselves
a bit better compared to the last few nights. Some of these storms
will likely reach a few of our westernmost counties of East Texas
and McCurtain County in Southeast Oklahoma this morning. However,
the storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent as they
encounter decreasing instability. Similar to the last 24 hours,
redevelopment is possible along any old outflow boundaries
especially from the peak of daytime heating through the evening
hours. A very similar scenario is expected to unfold tonight
through Tuesday morning.

A long-duration rain event, with the potential for localized heavy
rainfall, is still expected to develop beginning late Tuesday and
continuing into at least early Saturday as an upper trough
currently over the California/Arizona border slowly moves towards
the area. The best chances for widespread rainfall should be
Wednesday and into Thursday as a cold front approaches. It appears
the highest rainfall totals will be west of a line from Lufkin,
TX, to Prescott, AR. Through Saturday morning, 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall is likely in those locations, with lower amounts farther
east, but still probably above an inch. Locally higher amounts
will be possible especially if storms are slow-moving or training.
Flood headlines may become necessary in later forecast packages.

The upper trough is expected to stall just south of the area,
possibly just off the coast south of the mouth of the Sabine
River
00001389
. The trough will gradually weaken through the beginning of
next week, but thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on a
daily basis, especially south of I-30 through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  70  88  70 /  30  20  20  30
MLU  91  69  90  71 /  30  20  20  20
DEQ  86  66  84  68 /  50  30  30  50
TXK  87  67  87  69 /  40  30  30  40
ELD  90  67  90  70 /  30  20  30  30
TYR  88  69  86  69 /  50  20  20  40
GGG  88  67  87  69 /  40  20  20  40
LFK  88  67  88  69 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301213
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
713 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
12z sfc obs indicate a mix of conditions ongoing...the worst of
which is dense fog being reported at KARA. As per the norm expect
all sites to improve to VFR over the next hour or so...leaving
behind a day of mainly just sct cu and cirrus per forecast time-
height sections. The combo of lift from an approaching shortwave
over TX and a little deeper moisture over the ern sections of the
forecast area have led to the insertion of vcsh for
KAEX/KLFT/KARA for the afternoon hours.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...An upper level low is over the SW states this
morning with an short wave moving around the larger low and into
Texas. Associated with the short wave over Texas a line of storms
is moving south and east. Models agree that this activity will
mostly move south through this morning, however as the short wave
moves closer to Louisiana scattered storms will be possible by
this afternoon. With a hot and humid air mass in place and a
slight bit of divergence aloft storm coverage should be a little
higher than the past couple of afternoons.

Through mid week the upper low over the desert southwest will very
gradually move south and east. Ahead of the low very weak upper
ridging is expected over the northern gulf coast. This will keep
pops ranging from isolated to low end scattered and mostly diurnal through
Wednesday.

Late in the week and into the weekend, the pattern becomes wetter.
The upper low over the sw states very slowly moves closer and cuts
off while a weak frontal boundary drifts to the coast. This will
provide multiple days of rain again with some possibly being heavy
at times.

MARINE...Weak high pressure will remain across the coastal waters
through mid week keeping winds light and mainly onshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  91  69 /  30  20  20  10
LCH  90  70  89  71 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  90  72  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  89  71  89  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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