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0000AF46000
FXUS64 KLCH 030337
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1037 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ALL PRECIP HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO FORM ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER
LOWER ACADIANA. HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END POPS FROM I-10 SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
UPDATE IS OUT.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS BEGINNING
TO WIND DOWN...HOWEVER A VCTS MENTION WAS CONTINUED FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAEX TO ACCOUNT. THEREAFTER MINIMAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECASTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL (EXCEPT AT KAEX LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS). BEST POPS CARRIED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE 3 ERN SITES WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ARE
PROGGED.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  20  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  10  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030337
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1037 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ALL PRECIP HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO FORM ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER
LOWER ACADIANA. HAVE REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END POPS FROM I-10 SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
UPDATE IS OUT.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS BEGINNING
TO WIND DOWN...HOWEVER A VCTS MENTION WAS CONTINUED FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAEX TO ACCOUNT. THEREAFTER MINIMAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECASTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL (EXCEPT AT KAEX LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS). BEST POPS CARRIED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE 3 ERN SITES WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ARE
PROGGED.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  20  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  10  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
DIMINISHED POPS AND WEATHER TO SILENT TENS AND ALSO LOWERED LOWS FOR
MANY SITES. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY/FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR ARE NEAR...AND IN A COUPLE OF CASES AT
FORECAST LOWS...SO WE HAVE SPLIT THE T/TD SPREADS MORE OR LESS IN
MOST CASES. SKY IS THINNING WEST AND OVERHEAD AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ANY SOAKED AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WORKING EAST BY DAYBREAK. THE STRONG MCS OUTFLOW FROM OK/AR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS NOW PRETTY MUCH SCOURED OUT THE RAINFALL
IN OUR CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING. OF COURSE...WE
WON/T RECOVER UNTIL HEATING TOMORROW...BUT THE NEW NAM IS NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC FOR MORE. ALTHOUGH...IT WAS A GOOD DAY FOR THE AREA RAIN
BUCKETS WITH THE OUTFLOW PENNING UP THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREADING
THE WEALTH OF WET WEATHER ALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
OUTFLOWS PARENT VORT IS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NOW AND A WEAK
RIDGE IS PUSHING OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MORE SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS TO ENSUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NCNTRL LA...WITH IT EXPECTED TO END BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO AND
WINDS DECOUPLE...PATCHY FG AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CONVECTION AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...WHICH COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MIDMORNING. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA/E TX S
OF I-20...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING...WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
DEQ  72  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  72  93  72  92  71 /  10  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  93  74  95  74 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
DIMINISHED POPS AND WEATHER TO SILENT TENS AND ALSO LOWERED LOWS FOR
MANY SITES. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY/FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR ARE NEAR...AND IN A COUPLE OF CASES AT
FORECAST LOWS...SO WE HAVE SPLIT THE T/TD SPREADS MORE OR LESS IN
MOST CASES. SKY IS THINNING WEST AND OVERHEAD AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ANY SOAKED AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WORKING EAST BY DAYBREAK. THE STRONG MCS OUTFLOW FROM OK/AR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS NOW PRETTY MUCH SCOURED OUT THE RAINFALL
IN OUR CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING. OF COURSE...WE
WON/T RECOVER UNTIL HEATING TOMORROW...BUT THE NEW NAM IS NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC FOR MORE. ALTHOUGH...IT WAS A GOOD DAY FOR THE AREA RAIN
BUCKETS WITH THE OUTFLOW PENNING UP THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREADING
THE WEALTH OF WET WEATHER ALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
OUTFLOWS PARENT VORT IS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NOW AND A WEAK
RIDGE IS PUSHING OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MORE SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS TO ENSUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NCNTRL LA...WITH IT EXPECTED TO END BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO AND
WINDS DECOUPLE...PATCHY FG AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CONVECTION AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...WHICH COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MIDMORNING. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA/E TX S
OF I-20...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING...WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
DEQ  72  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  72  93  72  92  71 /  10  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  93  74  95  74 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030239 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
939 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING ZONES TO BRING POPS MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS. VORTICITY STRUCTURE THAT IS AMPLIFYING WHILE
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. THE POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH BUT ARE IN LINE WITH
EXISTING RAIN AREAS AND ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT INTO THE
SOUTH SHORE AND MISSISSIPPI COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO ALSO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...
TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED FOR
ONGOING ADVANCING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE CONVECTION. GUST POTENTIAL FROM STORMS SHOULD FALL IN THE
30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 35-45KT RANGE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SHORT-FUSED RADAR...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGH THIS EVENING
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.17 INCHES. MLCAPES ARE AROUND
2200 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS CALCULATED AT -7.1. SO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
/NORTH OF I-12/ HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS. THE WINDS VEER
WITH HEIGHT FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE TO FROM THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS
WAS FOUND AT 7.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE LAUNCH THIS EVENING. THE BALLOON
WENT 23 MILES DOWNRANGE AND BURST OVER CENTRAL LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A
HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  80  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  80  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  60  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  60  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  40  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGH THIS EVENING
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.17 INCHES. MLCAPES ARE AROUND
2200 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS CALCULATED AT -7.1. SO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
/NORTH OF I-12/ HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS. THE WINDS VEER
WITH HEIGHT FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE TO FROM THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS
WAS FOUND AT 7.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE LAUNCH THIS EVENING. THE BALLOON
WENT 23 MILES DOWNRANGE AND BURST OVER CENTRAL LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A
HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 030102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGH THIS EVENING
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.17 INCHES. MLCAPES ARE AROUND
2200 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS CALCULATED AT -7.1. SO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
/NORTH OF I-12/ HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS. THE WINDS VEER
WITH HEIGHT FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE SURFACE TO FROM THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS
WAS FOUND AT 7.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE LAUNCH THIS EVENING. THE BALLOON
WENT 23 MILES DOWNRANGE AND BURST OVER CENTRAL LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A
HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030005 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NCNTRL LA...WITH IT EXPECTED TO END BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO AND
WINDS DECOUPLE...PATCHY FG AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CONVECTION AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...WHICH COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MIDMORNING. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA/E TX S
OF I-20...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING...WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 030005 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS NCNTRL LA...WITH IT EXPECTED TO END BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO AND
WINDS DECOUPLE...PATCHY FG AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CONVECTION AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS E TX/WRN LA...WHICH COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH MIDMORNING. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA/E TX S
OF I-20...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING...WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS BEGINNING
TO WIND DOWN...HOWEVER A VCTS MENTION WAS CONTINUED FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAEX TO ACCOUNT. THEREAFTER MINIMAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECASTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL (EXCEPT AT KAEX LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS). BEST POPS CARRIED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE 3 ERN SITES WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ARE
PROGGED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA IS BEGINNING
TO WIND DOWN...HOWEVER A VCTS MENTION WAS CONTINUED FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAEX TO ACCOUNT. THEREAFTER MINIMAL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECASTS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL (EXCEPT AT KAEX LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS). BEST POPS CARRIED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE 3 ERN SITES WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ARE
PROGGED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PA
00004000
RKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR
00004000
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS
KEEPING A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALOFT A WEAK RIDGE IS
STRETCHED FROM TS DOLLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE A SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING FROM SE TX ACROSS
CEN LA AND CENTRAL AND NORTH MS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY HOUSTON TO VICKSBURG.
MOST CONVECTION ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS SE TX AND
CEN LA TODAY AND MOVING NORTHWARD, HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST AS HEATING
REMAINS STRONG AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS IN PLACE. POPS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS NEARLY LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD FROM DAY TO DAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2". A MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE SOUTH FLOW KEEPS TEMPS FROM
COOLING TOO MUCH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE EAST TX LAKES AND CEN LA AND
STALLS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS NO REAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR AND SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOCALLY. THIS
ONSHORE FETCH WILL ALSO KEEP TIDES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT PAST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
KBPT  78  91  78  92  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
KAEX  74  93  74  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
KLFT  76  91  76  92  76 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021950
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER...SO EXPECT
LONGER PERIODS OF MVFR AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 03/06Z...WHICH WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 16Z.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS...
HOWEVER EXPECT SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CAUSED BY THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021950
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DISSIPATED OVER
SOUTHERN OK...ACTIVATED NUMEROUS POPCORN CELL CONVECTION...WHICH
THEN CLUSTERED INTO TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FQT LTG THIS AFTN.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW SOUTH OF I-30...AND WILL CARRY 20 AND
30 PERCENT POPS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS THE
GROUND WILL BE QUITE WET AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND LIGHT DAYTIME
WINDS TO ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS TO MOST OF REGION
TOMORROW AFTN...TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER OUFLOW BOUNDARIES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. HOWEVER...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURG THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER...SO EXPECT
LONGER PERIODS OF MVFR AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 03/06Z...WHICH WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 16Z.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS...
HOWEVER EXPECT SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CAUSED BY THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021818
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...

THE AXIS OF A SOUTHEASTERLY MAX-WIND-BAND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA (CAMPECHE) THROUGH CORPUS CHRISTI. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURGES (OR CARIBBEAN PUSHES) ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BRIEF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHICH INVOLVED LOWERING THE POPS THIS MORNING AND
TINKERING WITH THE TEMPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. BOTH VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S BY MID DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUT
000013F5
HERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021818
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...

THE AXIS OF A SOUTHEASTERLY MAX-WIND-BAND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA (CAMPECHE) THROUGH CORPUS CHRISTI. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURGES (OR CARIBBEAN PUSHES) ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BRIEF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHICH INVOLVED LOWERING THE POPS THIS MORNING AND
TINKERING WITH THE TEMPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. BOTH VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S BY MID DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 021739
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR
LINE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING FROM SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DISSIPATE. MCB AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LATE SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN EXTENSION
WESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...OTHERWISE JUST
SOME CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWING
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
00001608
 OF 2.35 INCHES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM...

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. SOME HINT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WEAKER
ON THE GFS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MOIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 2
INCHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MET GUIDANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE ON POPS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE. WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT SEE MANY PLACES GETTING MUCH ABOVE 91
OR 92...AND THAT COULD OCCUR BEFORE 18Z THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME
HINTS OF SLIGHT DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING POPS FOR NOW. THIS MAY JUST MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LATER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TRENDS OF GENERAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WEAK
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY SEE
DEW POINTS LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT BARELY NOTICEABLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  92  72  91 /  30  50  20  40
BTR  75  93  74  93 /  30  40  20  40
ASD  76  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  77  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  77  91  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021712
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER...SO EXPECT
LONGER PERIODS OF MVFR AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 03/06Z...WHICH WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 16Z.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS...
HOWEVER EXPECT SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CAUSED BY THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING AREAS
NORTH OF I-30 WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
IN EAST TX LAKES...WHERE TSTMS MOVG NWD INTO AREA. AS THESE
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NUMEROUS AT SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT REMAIN
VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER...WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POP CATEGORIES./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
00004000

CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  20  10
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  10  10  20  10
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  20  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021712
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER...SO EXPECT
LONGER PERIODS OF MVFR AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 03/06Z...WHICH WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 16Z.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS...
HOWEVER EXPECT SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CAUSED BY THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING AREAS
NORTH OF I-30 WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
IN EAST TX LAKES...WHERE TSTMS MOVG NWD INTO AREA. AS THESE
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NUMEROUS AT SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT REMAIN
VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER...WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POP CATEGORIES./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
MLU  75  94  73  95  72 /  30  20  20  20  10
DEQ  73  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
ELD  74  93  72  92  71 /  20  10  10  20  10
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  20  10
LFK  76  93  74  95  74 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING AREAS
NORTH OF I-30 WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
IN EAST TX LAKES...WHERE TSTMS MOVG NWD INTO AREA. AS THESE
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NUMEROUS AT SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT REMAIN
VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER...WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POP CATEGORIES./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  88  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  90  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  92  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING AREAS
NORTH OF I-30 WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
IN EAST TX LAKES...WHERE TSTMS MOVG NWD INTO AREA. AS THESE
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NUMEROUS AT SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT REMAIN
VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER...WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POP CATEGORIES./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PL
00004000
ACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  88  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  90  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  92  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING AREAS
NORTH OF I-30 WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
IN EAST TX LAKES...WHERE TSTMS MOVG NWD INTO AREA. AS THESE
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NUMEROUS AT SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT REMAIN
VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER...WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POP CATEGORIES./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  88  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  90  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  92  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING AREAS
NORTH OF I-30 WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
POPCORN SHOWERS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR WILL KEEP TEMPS
RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES. AND TEMPS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
IN EAST TX LAKES...WHERE TSTMS MOVG NWD INTO AREA. AS THESE
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NUMEROUS AT SOME OF THESE AREAS...BUT REMAIN
VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER...WILL PREVAIL CHANCE POP CATEGORIES./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  88  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  90  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  92  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021540
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-2
00004000
0. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  94  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  95  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021540
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  94  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  95  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021540
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  94  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  95  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021540
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MCC OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL HAS NOT COMPLETELY LOST STEAM...AS
IT BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A CLOUD INCREASE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT REGION. ALSO RAISED AFTN HIGHS TO MID 90S
FOR SOUTHERN CWA...AS 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S/VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  40  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10  20
TYR  94  74  95  74  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  95  76  93  74  95 /  30  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021413
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHICH INVOLVED LOWERING THE POPS THIS MORNING AND
TIN
00004000
KERING WITH THE TEMPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. BOTH VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S BY MID DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021413
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHICH INVOLVED LOWERING THE POPS THIS MORNING AND
TINKERING WITH THE TEMPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. BOTH VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S BY MID DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021413
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHICH INVOLVED LOWERING THE POPS THIS MORNING AND
TINKERING WITH THE TEMPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. BOTH VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S BY MID DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021413
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHICH INVOLVED LOWERING THE POPS THIS MORNING AND
TINKERING WITH THE TEMPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. BOTH VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S BY MID DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021151
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
KBPT  90  77  91  77 /  40  30  20  20
KAEX  91  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
KLFT  90  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021151
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOIS
00004000
TURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
KBPT  90  77  91  77 /  40  30  20  20
KAEX  91  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
KLFT  90  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021151
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
KBPT  90  77  91  77 /  40  30  20  20
KAEX  91  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
KLFT  90  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 021151
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
02/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOWING SCT LOW CLOUDS STREAMING IN
OFF THE GULF AND BECOMING MORE BKN TOWARD CNTL/NRN LA. OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AT AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT LCH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
14Z-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KLCH RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THESE MOVING INLAND SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCT TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
KBPT  90  77  91  77 /  40  30  20  20
KAEX  91  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
KLFT  90  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 021126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  40  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  30  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
TYR  93  74  95  74  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  93  76  93  74  95 /  40  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  40  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  30  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
TYR  93  74  95  74  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  93  76  93  74  95 /  40  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GEN
000033D8
ERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  40  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  30  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
TYR  93  74  95  74  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  93  76  93  74  95 /  40  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020852
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS PER LAST EVENING SOUNDING AND GPS-MET DATA REMAINS RATHER
TROPICAL. SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALREADY IN
PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THUNDER AT
KLCH AIRPORT IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

GUIDANCE SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AS NARROW AXIS OF 2-2.5 INCH PW`S LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED EAST WEST ACROSS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. THUS WENT 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL LA.

SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING A TAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER SHOWERS.

SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A FINAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS TS
DOLLY MOVES INTO MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  90  77  91  77  91 /  40  30  20  20  30
KAEX  91  74  92  74  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
KLFT  91  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 020757
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
257 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATE SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN EXTENSION
WESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...OTHERWISE JUST
SOME CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWING
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.35 INCHES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. SOME HINT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WEAKER
ON THE GFS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MOIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 2
INCHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MET GUIDANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE ON POPS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE. WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT SEE MANY PLACES GETTING MUCH ABOVE 91
OR 92...AND THAT COULD OCCUR BEFORE 18Z THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME
HINTS OF SLIGHT DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING POPS FOR NOW. THIS MAY JUST MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LATER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TRENDS OF GENERAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WEAK
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY SEE
DEW POINTS LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT BARELY NOTICEABLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. A FEW OF THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMCB
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AROUND AND PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  92  72 /  50  30  50  20
BTR  92  75  93  74 /  50  30  40  20
ASD  91  76  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  91  77  91  77 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  90  77  91  76 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 020757
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
257 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATE SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN EXTENSION
WESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...OTHERWISE JUST
SOME CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWING
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.35 INCHES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. SOME HINT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WEAKER
ON THE GFS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MOIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 2
INCHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MET GUIDANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE ON POPS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE. WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT SEE MANY PLACES GETTING MUCH ABOVE 91
OR 92...AND THAT COULD OCCUR BEFORE 18Z THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME
HINTS OF SLIGHT DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING POPS FOR NOW. THIS MAY JUST MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LATER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TRENDS OF GENERAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WEAK
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY SEE
DEW POINTS LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT BARELY NOTICEABLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. A FEW OF THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMCB
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AROUND AND PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  92  72 /  50  30  50  20
BTR  92  75  93  74 /  50  30  40  20
ASD  91  76  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  91  77  91  77 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  90  77  91  76 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 020501
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON STEADY STATE GULF BREEZE
FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBY TEMPORARILY DURING TSRA/SHRA GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z-
21Z. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS SAMPLED THIS EVENING AND THE
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY FOLLOWING MOIST ADIABATS FROM ABOUT 800MB TO
THE TROPOPAUSE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.35 INCHES IS NEARING THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING AT THIS TIME AND THESE WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700MB WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH.
WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB-100MB/ WERE FROM
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND IN THE STRATOSPHERE THE WINDS WERE
FROM THE EAST.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE AND SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING.
THE BALLOON TERMINATED AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND WAS 24 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS. HAVE WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION ALOFT...AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
00004000
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE REGION...AND SHOULD WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIFT ALLOWS THE UPDRAFTS TO LINGER PAST SUNSET.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN PLACE THIS AFTN
AND COULD ADD TEMPOS AT TIMES FOR LOWER VIS DURING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT MCB DUE TO
LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW OTHER AIRPORTS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SUBSEQUENTLY....SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ARE NOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE HIGHEST. SEAS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY AS
WELL WITH PEAKS NEAR 4 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.AS THE
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  76  93  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  78  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  76  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 020501
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON STEADY STATE GULF BREEZE
FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBY TEMPORARILY DURING TSRA/SHRA GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z-
21Z. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS SAMPLED THIS EVENING AND THE
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY FOLLOWING MOIST ADIABATS FROM ABOUT 800MB TO
THE TROPOPAUSE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.35 INCHES IS NEARING THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING AT THIS TIME AND THESE WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700MB WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH.
WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB-100MB/ WERE FROM
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND IN THE STRATOSPHERE THE WINDS WERE
FROM THE EAST.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE AND SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING.
THE BALLOON TERMINATED AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND WAS 24 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS. HAVE WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION ALOFT...AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE REGION...AND SHOULD WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIFT ALLOWS THE UPDRAFTS TO LINGER PAST SUNSET.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN PLACE THIS AFTN
AND COULD ADD TEMPOS AT TIMES FOR LOWER VIS DURING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT MCB DUE TO
LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW OTHER AIRPORTS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SUBSEQUENTLY....SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ARE NOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE HIGHEST. SEAS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY AS
WELL WITH PEAKS NEAR 4 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.AS THE
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  76  93  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  78  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  76  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ALL BUT KAEX WHERE
CROSSOVER TEMP LOOKS MORE ATTAINABLE. THEREAFTER POST-SUNRISE
LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH COMBO OF WEAKNESS IN THE
SRN CONUS RIDGING ALOFT/ABUNDANT MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN POPPING UP LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...
FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS AT PROB30 ALL SITES ALTHOUGH KLFT/KARA
COULD POSSIBLY SEE BETTER COVERAGE WITH BETTER MOISTURE PROGGED.
OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN APPEARS TO BE SRLY WINDS RUNNING AOA 10
KNOTS AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA WITH A LITTLE MIXING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ALL BUT KAEX WHERE
CROSSOVER TEMP LOOKS MORE ATTAINABLE. THEREAFTER POST-SUNRISE
LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL REPEAT OF TODAY WITH COMBO OF WEAKNESS IN THE
SRN CONUS RIDGING ALOFT/ABUNDANT MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN POPPING UP LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...
FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS AT PROB30 ALL SITES ALTHOUGH KLFT/KARA
COULD POSSIBLY SEE BETTER COVERAGE WITH BETTER MOISTURE PROGGED.
OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN APPEARS TO BE SRLY WINDS RUNNING AOA 10
KNOTS AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA WITH A LITTLE MIXING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AVIATION...
FAIR SKIES FOR HOURS YET WITH LIGHT SE WINDS ON THE SURFACE.
ALOFT...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK 09-12Z
WITH VFR BY MID MORNING...15-16Z. THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TSTMS WILL SPREAD INTO I-20 CORRIDOR 19-23Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AVIATION...
FAIR SKIES FOR HOURS YET WITH LIGHT SE WINDS ON THE SURFACE.
ALOFT...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK 09-12Z
WITH VFR BY MID MORNING...15-16Z. THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TSTMS WILL SPREAD INTO I-20 CORRIDOR 19-23Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.
00004000

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020401
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020401
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020401
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020401
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 020131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 020109
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS SAMPLED THIS EVENING AND THE
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY FOLLOWING MOIST ADIABATS FROM ABOUT 800MB TO
THE TROPOPAUSE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.35 INCHES IS NEARING THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING AT THIS TIME AND THESE WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700MB WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH.
WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB-100MB/ WERE FROM
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND IN THE STRATOSPHERE THE WINDS WERE
FROM THE EAST.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE AND SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING.
THE BALLOON TERMINATED AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND WAS 24 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS. HAVE WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION ALOFT...AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE
00004000
 LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE REGION...AND SHOULD WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIFT ALLOWS THE UPDRAFTS TO LINGER PAST SUNSET.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN PLACE THIS AFTN
AND COULD ADD TEMPOS AT TIMES FOR LOWER VIS DURING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT MCB DUE TO
LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW OTHER AIRPORTS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SUBSEQUENTLY....SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ARE NOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE HIGHEST. SEAS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY AS
WELL WITH PEAKS NEAR 4 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.AS THE
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  76  93  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  78  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  76  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 020109
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS SAMPLED THIS EVENING AND THE
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY FOLLOWING MOIST ADIABATS FROM ABOUT 800MB TO
THE TROPOPAUSE. A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.35 INCHES IS NEARING THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING AT THIS TIME AND THESE WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700MB WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH.
WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB-100MB/ WERE FROM
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND IN THE STRATOSPHERE THE WINDS WERE
FROM THE EAST.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE AND SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING.
THE BALLOON TERMINATED AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND AND WAS 24 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS. HAVE WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION ALOFT...AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE REGION...AND SHOULD WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIFT ALLOWS THE UPDRAFTS TO LINGER PAST SUNSET.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN PLACE THIS AFTN
AND COULD ADD TEMPOS AT TIMES FOR LOWER VIS DURING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT MCB DUE TO
LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW OTHER AIRPORTS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SUBSEQUENTLY....SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ARE NOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE HIGHEST. SEAS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY AS
WELL WITH PEAKS NEAR 4 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.AS THE
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  76  93  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  78  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  76  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012330
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012330
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLIX 012025
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS. HAVE WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION ALOFT...AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE REGION...AND SHOULD WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIFT ALLOWS THE UPDRAFTS TO LINGER PAST SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN PLACE THIS AFTN
AND COULD ADD TEMPOS AT TIMES FOR LOWER VIS DURING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT MCB DUE TO
LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW OTHER AIRPORTS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SUBSEQUENTLY....SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ARE NOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE HIGHEST. SEAS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY AS
WELL WITH PEAKS NEAR 4 FEET FOR SIGNIFIC
00004000
ANT WAVE HEIGHTS.AS THE
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  76  93  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  78  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  76  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 012025
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHER DOWN IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EVEN WITH SOME
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS. HAVE WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION ALOFT...AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EACH NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL TO THE WEST AND BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE REGION...AND SHOULD WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LIFT ALLOWS THE UPDRAFTS TO LINGER PAST SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. WILL LEAVE VCTS IN PLACE THIS AFTN
AND COULD ADD TEMPOS AT TIMES FOR LOWER VIS DURING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT MCB DUE TO
LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW OTHER AIRPORTS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IS BEGINNING TO RELAX.
SUBSEQUENTLY....SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ARE NOW
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE HIGHEST. SEAS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY AS
WELL WITH PEAKS NEAR 4 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.AS THE
INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  76  93  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  78  91  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
GPT  78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  76  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 012025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH ROOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND 130 PERCENT OR MORE OF NORMAL. WITH NO WARM
LAYER ALOFT, TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO TUE. BY WED THE MID LVL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN SOMEWHAT STABILIZING THE
AREA AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST A 30/40 CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MODEST MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TOWARD NE MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE
DISTURBANCE AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
SE WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SEAS AND TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. TIDES ARE FORECAST
TO RUN AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SEAS AND TIDES WILL SLOWLY
RELAX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO MEXICO AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  91  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KBPT  77  90  77  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
KAEX  75  91  74  93  74 /  30  40  20  20  20
KLFT  77  92  76  92  77 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT
00004000
 GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011813
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
113 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...

THE AXIS OF A SOUTHEASTERLY MAX-WIND-BAND EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY SURGES
(OR CARIBBEAN PUSHES) ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. IN GENERAL
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BRIEF.

CARIBBEAN-PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.

21
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN-LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER
THE GRIDS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO TAP DOWN THE POPS A BIT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
NORTH OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW OF THEM
REACHING OUR SRN TAF SITES SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...THE FORMATION OF SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME BRIEF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE LIFTING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
AEX/LFT/ARA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPO GROUPS BECOME REQUIRED DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  90  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011717
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011717
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011524
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
915 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN-LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER
THE GRIDS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO TAP DOWN THE POPS A BIT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
NORTH OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW OF THEM
REACHING OUR SRN TAF SITES SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...THE FORMATION OF SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME BRIEF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE LIFTING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
AEX/LFT/ARA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN UNCERTA
00004000
INTIES IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPO GROUPS BECOME REQUIRED DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  90  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
915 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN-LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER
THE GRIDS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO TAP DOWN THE POPS A BIT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
NORTH OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW OF THEM
REACHING OUR SRN TAF SITES SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...THE FORMATION OF SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME BRIEF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE LIFTING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
AEX/LFT/ARA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPO GROUPS BECOME REQUIRED DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  90  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011204
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
704 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
NORTH OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW OF THEM
REACHING OUR SRN TAF SITES SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...THE FORMATION OF SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BRING ABOUT SOME BRIEF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE LIFTING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT
AEX/LFT/ARA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPECT SCT
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPO GROUPS BECOME REQUIRED DURING THE
DAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  90  74 /  40  30  40  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...27
AVIATION...24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S 
00004000
AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH F
00003A70
RIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
CLEAR OF ANY INLAND PRECIP WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. GULF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART UPON
MOVING ONSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE. BRINGING
IN VCSH WITHIN MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD MID MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING INTO PROB30S FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING MAX HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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