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0000AE89000
FXUS64 KSHV 301810
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301810
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301740
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...THE LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR
LOWER ACADIANA WHILE SAINT LANDRY AND LAFAYETTE HAVE BEEN SHAVED
OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME TO
INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TO THE WEST HAVE
BEEN SHAVED OFF AS THE THREAT SHIFT EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  60  50  40  70
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  40  60
LFT  72  83  71  83 /  60  70  30  60
BPT  71  82  71  81 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301730
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.AVIATION... /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 808 AM CDT/
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT THE REGION
BY 30/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT LFK/MLU...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

28/20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME TO
INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TO THE WEST HAVE
BEEN SHAVED OFF AS THE THREAT SHIFT EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 / 100  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 / 100  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 / 100  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301331
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
831 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATES A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT BELOW AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 900 MB. ONSHORE FLOW
OFF THE GULF IS 20 TO 35 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH THIS
LAYER. THE LCL IS LOW AT 400 FEET. DRIER AIR IS PRESENT ABOVE TO
ABOUT 550 MB. OVERALL PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.43 INCHES. ANOTHER
ELEVATED INVERSION IS NEAR 630 MB... WHERE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE WESTERLY. CAPE IS RELATIVELY LONG AND SKINNY THROUGH THE
PROFILE WITH MOST UNSTABLE AT 2000 J/KG. WARM CLOUD LAYER IN A
STORM WOULD BE 14000 FT SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN AGAIN TODAY. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR IS 35 KTS...
THAT IS ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WIND TO AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
AS WELL. WE EXPECT THIS ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW THE MCS CURRENTLY AT
THE LA/MS BORDER TO CONTINUE EAST. THE SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES
THIS MORNING WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LCH PROFILE HAS A BIT
MORE SHEAR AND ALSO SUPPORTS MCS MAINTENANCE. ONE LAST CONCERN FOR
TODAY WOULD BE THE LINE OF STORMS SLOWING IN SOUTHEAST LA AND
TRAINING ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON... WHERE THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE POOLED AT 925 MB ALONG THE NORTHSHORE AND
THE MS GULF COAST.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.

OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

LONG TERM...

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  68  81  67 /  90  70  70  30
BTR  82  70  84  68 /  90  50  70  30
ASD  84  68  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  60  50  60  30
GPT  83  72  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
PQL  84  69  83  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT THE REGION BY
30/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT LFK/MLU...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FOR
00004000
ECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.

OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

.LONG TERM...

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  68  81  67 /  90  70  70  30
BTR  82  70  84  68 /  90  50  70  30
ASD  84  68  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  60  50  60  30
GPT  83  72  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
PQL  84  69  83  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
125 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF NE TX...SE OK AND
SW AR FROM SVR WATCH #128 ATTM. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS...TEMPS...DEWPT
AND RH GRIDS.

UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  67  82  63 /  70  50  20  50
MLU  81  68  83  65 /  70  70  30  40
DEQ  78  58  81  57 /  50  20  10  40
TXK  80  62  82  60 /  70  30  10  40
ELD  80  65  83  62 /  70  50  20  40
TYR  82  63  81  60 /  50  20  10  50
GGG  83  65  82  61 /  70  30  10  50
LFK  81  69  82  66 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

13/09/15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300605
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
000007CF

CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  63  74 /  50  20  50  60
MLU  68  83  65  75 /  70  30  40  60
DEQ  58  81  57  71 /  20  10  40  50
TXK  
00004000
62  82  60  71 /  30  10  40  50
ELD  65  83  62  73 /  50  20  40  60
TYR  63  81  60  75 /  20  10  50  50
GGG  65  82  61  75 /  30  10  50  60
LFK  69  82  66  78 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300605
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE IMPACTS
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KTYR.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR/IFR DUE TO THE PRECIP.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 30/18Z ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
VFR AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  63  74 /  50  20  50  60
MLU  68  83  65  75 /  70  30  40  60
DEQ  58  81  57  71 /  20  10  40  50
TXK  62  82  60  71 /  30  10  40  50
ELD  65  83  62  73 /  50  20  40  60
TYR  63  81  60  75 /  20  10  50  50
GGG  65  82  61  75 /  30  10  50  60
LFK  69  82  66  78 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300425
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1012 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BUT IT IS
TOMORROW THAT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION NOW. THERE IS A LOT OF
INDICATION THE LAST FEW HRS THAT SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION MUCH EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. FROM A MDL STANDPOINT THE
LAST 3-4 HRS OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FASTER WITH
A SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
SURGE EAST POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AS EARLY AS
15Z(MUCH LIKE LAST WEDNESDAY). WHAT COULD LEAD TO THIS...LOOKING AT
THE WV THE S/W MOVING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO KS APPEAR
LIKE IT COULD BE A TAD DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TAKING A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TX. IN ADDITION EVERY IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT OVER CNTRL AND ERN TX SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HEALTHY CONVECTION.
COMBINE THAT WITH POSSIBLY A STRONGER LLJ OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW
MORNING/MIDDAY(LEADING TO BETTER LL CONVERGENCE) AND ANOTHER RATHER
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT AS LONG
AS A LINE DEVELOPS IT WOULD CONTINUE DRIVING EAST. ADD IN THE FACT
THAT IF THERE ARE SEVERE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE IT WILL IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD COLD POOL AND THUS LEAD TO AN EVEN FASTER ARRIVAL TIME
THAN WHAT WE ARE NOW GOING TO SHOW. HAVE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO BRING
CONVECTION INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 15Z AND THE LINE IN
BTR BEFORE 18Z. AGAIN THIS COULD BE TOO SLOW.

THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO ALL OF THIS...FIRST A SOLID LINE MUST
DEVELOP IN TX AND SECOND THE S/W WILL PULL NNE AND WE COULD LOSE ALL
MID LVL SUPPORT WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DYING OFF JUST BEFORE
GETTING HERE. CAB

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT TONIGHT. IT TERMINATED AT 7 MB ABOUT
20.8 MILES ALOFT AND 50 MILES DOWNRANGE IN MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT
8 MILES WEST OF CAT ISLAND BELOW PASS CHRISTIAN.

SOUNDING HAS AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO BASE OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 850 MB...ISOTHEMAL TO 814 MB...THEN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ABOVE 700 MB TO TROPOPAUSE AT 137 MB WITH
A TEMPERATURE OF -72C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT SATURATED
BELOW INVERSION THEN QUITE DRY ALOFT...NOT TOO DISTANT FROM A
LOADED GUN SOUNDING WITH PLENTY OF DOWNDRAFT MOMEMENTUM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD A CONVECTIVE PROCESS GET UNDERWAY. WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT TO
ABOUT 1500FT...S 25-30 KT TO 7900FT...THEN SW-NW 15-100KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 280/103KT AT 46.5KFT.

CHAP OUTPUT ON THIS SOUNDING IS QUITE DISTURBING FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. USING MOST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE
351K LIFT DOES YIELD NEARLY 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE...28% CHANCE
SEVERE WITH GUST POTENTIAL 52KT...MARBLE SIZED HAIL WITH A 64 VIL
AND SEVERE HAIL WITH 67 VIL. COMPUTED RAINFALL COMES UP 6.54
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL 10.01 INCHES! THIS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITORED AS CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING STEADILY OVER TEXAS AND
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1000MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOWED MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
A NEGATIVELY TITLED CYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM IDAHO TO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CREATING A DIVERGENCE FLOW OVER ARKLATEX
REGION...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB
SHOWED THE SPLIT OVER CENTRAL AND DIVERGENCE EXTENDING NORTHEAST.
18

SHORT TERM...
WHILE TODAY IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE CLOSED OFF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO POOL
ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...PW VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS AND
1 TO 1.25 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO GFS.
ERGO...RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY WILL YIELD SOME SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO SAG SOUTH SATURDAY AND
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL
LINE FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WILL
VALUES 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 900 TO 2500 J/KG THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS RESULT...LL
HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BELOW 250M/S WITH BEST VALUES SATURDAY
MORNING JUST NW OF FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE AXIS WILL ORIENT WEST
TO EAST FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST NORTH OF COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTH HALF OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS AXIS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 18

LONG TERM...

GFS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN EURO WITH WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...EURO POSITIONED THE WAVE MORE EAST. EITHER
WAY...FORCING MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
POINT NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO THE
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MOSTLY MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATER ON THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY BREEZY TODAY AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ELEVATED TOMORROW
AS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
LATE SATURDAY HAVE NOT PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST YET BUT LOOK FOR THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INSERTED OVER THE NEXT ISSUANCE OR
THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE. 13/MH

MARINE...

WILL RAISE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF OPEN WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EV
00004000
ENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  85  68  81 /  10  40  70  70
BTR  70  88  70  84 /  20  50  50  70
ASD  70  86  68  84 /  10  20  30  60
MSY  72  85  73  82 /  10  20  30  60
GPT  71  85  72  84 /  10  10  20  60
PQL  68  86  69  83 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300228
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300228
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MULTI-THREAT EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAINFALL AXES HAVE SET
UP...ONE OVER OUR NE TX COUNTIES FROM NEAR TYLER TO DEKALB...AND
ANOTHER ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD THROUGH NEAR EL
DORADO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EWD THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO
THE FF WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME...SETTING MUCH OF THE WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z SUNDAY. ALLOWED THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUN. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...AS THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NEWD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THAT. RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY DIMINISH/END SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE ON TO OUR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NWD AND ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING AS A
RESULT.

DESPITE THIS BETTER AGREEMENT...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN FOR THE MID
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FINAL KICKER TROF. HOWEVER...ATTM
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AN END OF PRECIP BY TUE NIGHT AS A
FINALLY PUSH OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUR TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1000MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOWED MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
A NEGATIVELY TITLED CYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM IDAHO TO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CREATING A DIVERGENCE FLOW OVER ARKLATEX
REGION...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB
SHOWED THE SPLIT OVER CENTRAL AND DIVERGENCE EXTENDING NORTHEAST.
18

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WHILE TODAY IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE CLOSED OFF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO POOL
ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...PW VALUES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ALONG THIS AXIS AND
1 TO 1.25 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO GFS.
ERGO...RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY WILL YIELD SOME SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO SAG SOUTH SATURDAY AND
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL
LINE FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WILL
VALUES 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 900 TO 2500 J/KG THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS RESULT...LL
HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BELOW 250M/S WITH BEST VALUES SATURDAY
MORNING JUST NW OF FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE AXIS WILL ORIENT WEST
TO EAST FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST NORTH OF COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTH HALF OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS AXIS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...

GFS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN EURO WITH WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SOUTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...EURO POSITIONED THE WAVE MORE EAST. EITHER
WAY...FORCING MAY YIELD STRONG STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
POINT NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO THE
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MOSTLY MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATER ON THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY BREEZY TODAY AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ELEVATED TOMORROW
AS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
LATE SATURDAY HAVE NOT PUT THEM IN THE FORECAST YET BUT LOOK FOR THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE INSERTED OVER THE NEXT ISSUANCE OR
THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

WILL RAISE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF OPEN WATERS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY
BE NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  68  85  68 /  10  10  40  70
BTR  87  70  88  70 /  10  20  50  50
ASD  87  70  86  68 /  10  10  20  30
MSY  85  72  85  73 /  10  10  20  30
GPT  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  86  68  86  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292112
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MULTI-THREAT EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAINFALL AXES HAVE SET
UP...ONE OVER OUR NE TX COUNTIES FROM NEAR TYLER TO DEKALB...AND
ANOTHER ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD THROUGH NEAR EL
DORADO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EWD THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO
THE FF WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/
00004000
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME...SETTING MUCH OF THE WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z SUNDAY. ALLOWED THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUN. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...AS THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NEWD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THAT. RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY DIMINISH/END SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE ON TO OUR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NWD AND ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING AS A
RESULT.

DESPITE THIS BETTER AGREEMENT...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN FOR THE MID
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FINAL KICKER TROF. HOWEVER...ATTM
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AN END OF PRECIP BY TUE NIGHT AS A
FINALLY PUSH OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUR TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE RED RIVER OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN SITUATED IN NORTHER LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALL DAY
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY DIFFICULT AND
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AS WELL WITH WILDLY VARYING
AMOUNTS. WHEREVER BANDS SETUP...WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILES THEY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

TONIGHT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST OF A
ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT LINE AND THUS WILL START THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THESE AREAS TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST TOMORROW AND THE WATCH WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST TOMORROW FOR
THE SAME POTENTIAL. RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS
WELL.

FRONT GRADUALLY PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO EXTEND BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING.

RIVER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVERS TO GO INTO
MINOR FLOOD WITH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER FLOODING.

STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
DEVELOPING...WATER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL WATER BODIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...27

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ISSUE TOR WATCH 125. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  70  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  70  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  80  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  70  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291901
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ISSUE TOR WATCH 125. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  70  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  70  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  80  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  70  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291727
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT, HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL AS WELL.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH THE LOW PROB IT WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
CLOSER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR TO SOMETIMES IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY HAVE
BEEN LIMITED WITH AN ELEVATED SRLY SFC WIND KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE MAINLY KBPT/KARA.
PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER THAT BEGINS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WITH SHORT-
RANGE MODELS VARYING ON ARRIVAL TIMES OF A POTENTIAL LINE OF
CONVECTION.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
TO THE EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET...BUT RATHER HUMID START TO THE FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER...EXCEPT
FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING AND STALLS.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM THE FRONT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL ALLOW FOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES TONIGHT AND TO OVER 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORMAL. MEAN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE OVER 70 TO 80
PERCENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
STORM TOTAL FROM WPC QPF AND MODEL BLEND...FAVOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE NORTHWEST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO CAMERON LINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY...AND IF THESE PRECIP NUMBERS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT WPC
DOES HAVE THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...WITH SPEED MAX INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES...AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRAIGHTLINE WINDS FROM WET MICRO-BURSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SPC ALSO HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY.)

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY DECREASING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL AGAIN BRING DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE OVER-RIDING TYPE
SHOWERS...AND WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT AND MEAN RH VALUES ARE AGAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF WE
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING 
00004000
THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MERGE BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EARLY MONDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  81  69  83 /  50  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  71  81 /  40  60  70  50
LFT  74  82  72  83 /  20  50  70  60
BPT  72  81  70  82 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291649
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  64  86 /  90  70  50  10
MLU  68  84  66  84 /  90  70  70  30
DEQ  64  82  56  82 /  90  40  20  10
TXK  66  82  60  84 /  90  50  30  10
ELD  67  80  63  85 /  90  70  50  10
TYR  67  84  61  85 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  67  82  62  85 /  90  50  30  10
LFK  68  82  66  86 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

08

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291618
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  70  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  50  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  80  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  70  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291215
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
715 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR TO SOMETIMES IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY HAVE
BEEN LIMITED WITH AN ELEVATED SRLY SFC WIND KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE MAINLY KBPT/KARA.
PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER THAT BEGINS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WITH SHORT-
RANGE MODELS VARYING ON ARRIVAL TIMES OF A POTENTIAL LINE OF
CONVECTION.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
TO THE EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET...BUT RATHER HUMID START TO THE FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER...EXCEPT
FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING AND STALLS.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM THE FRONT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL ALLOW FOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES TONIGHT AND TO OVER 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORMAL. MEAN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE OVER 70 TO 80
PERCENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
STORM TOTAL FROM WPC QPF AND MODEL BLEND...FAVOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE NORTHWEST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO CAMERON LINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY...AND IF THESE PRECIP NUMBERS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT WPC
DOES HAVE THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...WITH SPEED MAX INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES...AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRAIGHTLINE WINDS FROM WET MICRO-BURSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SPC ALSO HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY.)

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY DECREASING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL AGAIN BRING DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE OVER-RIDING TYPE
SHOWERS...AND WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT AND MEAN RH VALUES ARE AGAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF WE
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MERGE BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EARLY MONDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  81  69 /  20  60  70  70
LCH  85  73  80  71 /  20  40  60  70
LFT  86  74  82  72 /  10  20  50  70
BPT  85  72  81  70 /  20  50  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291149
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR 
00004000
THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291149
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290954
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
TO THE EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET...BUT RATHER HUMID START TO THE FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER...EXCEPT
FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING AND STALLS.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM THE FRONT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL ALLOW FOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES TONIGHT AND TO OVER 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORMAL. MEAN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE OVER 70 TO 80
PERCENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
STORM TOTAL FROM WPC QPF AND MODEL BLEND...FAVOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE NORTHWEST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO CAMERON LINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY...AND IF THESE PRECIP NUMBERS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT WPC
DOES HAVE THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...WITH SPEED MAX INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES...AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRAIGHTLINE WINDS FROM WET MICRO-BURSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SPC ALSO HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY.)

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY DECREASING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL AGAIN BRING DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE OVER-RIDING TYPE
SHOWERS...AND WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT AND MEAN RH VALUES ARE AGAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF WE
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MERGE BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EARLY MONDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  81  69 /  20  60  70  70
LCH  85  73  80  71 /  20  40  60  70
LFT  86  74  82  72 /  10  20  50  70
BPT  85  72  81  70 /  20  50  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290839
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...

EARLIER RAINS HAVE COME TO AN END AND THINGS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN
TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE RAIN FREE AND ON THE WARM SIDE AS RIDGING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BE IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH SOME AREA PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S. THE BREAK IN THE
RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH RAIN WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
BEING A CONCERN...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS
OF MORE CONCERN AT THIS POINT THAN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUESDAY AS THE AXIS
OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY THINGS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER SPOTTY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
SUNRISE.  EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH THREAT TO
MENTION IN FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL RAISE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER WESTERN OPEN WATERS FOR
TODAY...AND MAY BE NECESSARY OVER MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION
00004000
 HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  85  69 /  10  10  40  70
BTR  86  71  85  70 /  10  20  50  70
ASD  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  84  72  84  73 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  85  72  83  71 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  85  69  84  69 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290516
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. KTXK
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM PRECIP
INITIALLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD AND LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR/PATCHY
IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AFTER SUNRISE AFFECTING MAINLY KTXK AND KELD.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 29/18Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  83  65  83 /  80  60  60  20
MLU  70  81  66  82 /  60  70  70  30
DEQ  66  81  58  79 /  80  50  30  10
TXK  68  82  62  81 /  80  60  50  10
ELD  68  80  63  82 /  70  70  60  20
TYR  68  83  63  81 /  80  60  30  10
GGG  69  83  64  83 /  80  60  50  10
LFK  70  83  67  82 /  80  60  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290451
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1151 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR NOW CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS
SHOWING MVFR CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS OVER ACADIANA. EXPECTING THESE BREAKS TO FILL IN...WITH
ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEEING CEILINGS EASE DOWN TO WITHIN IFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO LIMIT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT LCH...BPT AND AEX. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH ARA AND LFT WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MID-MORNING...WITH VFR THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DID TACK ON A PROB30
GROUP FOR THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING AT LCH...AEX AND BPT WITH THE
APPROACH OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290425
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND IMPACT EACH OF THE TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS...BUT
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO IMPACT SOME OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING FRIDAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  87  70  82 /  10  10  10  30
BTR  71  87  72  83 /  20  10  20  40
ASD  71  85  71  84 /  20  10  10  20
MSY  73  86  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GPT  73  83  72  82 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  70  84  70  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKEL
0000037F
Y POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT 
00004000
JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  40  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  20  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  66  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  64  80  68  80 /  40  80  70  70
TYR  70  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  69  84  69  83 /  50  70  80  60
LFK  72  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290311
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  40  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  20  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  66  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  64  80  68  80 /  40  80  70  70
TYR  70  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  69  84  69  83 /  50  70  80  60
LFK  72  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290001
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 29/06Z BUT A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS TO
THE TAF SITES. THUS...HAVE KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
THE FRONT AFTER 29/10Z WHEN THE FRONT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET WEATHER TREND IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END...AS SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LUFKIN TX TO EL DORADO
AR LINE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS
GENERAL AREA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NWRN E TX
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR TRAINING STORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS A RES
00004000
ULT.

AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXPAND TO COVER
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A SECONDARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND ADDITIONS TO THE ONGOING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO
BRING IT FURTHER S. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO LINGER OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A VERY SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SET FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...GIVING SOME
DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
A COOL DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  30  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  30  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  65  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  66  80  68  80 /  30  80  70  70
TYR  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  70  84  69  83 /  40  70  80  60
LFK  71  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENT
THIS MORNING THINGS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. THAT SAID
THERE IS STILL A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE. RADAR ESTIMATES AN AREA OF 6
TO ALMOST 12 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF HANCOCK AND
ESPECIALLY HARRISON COUNTY. THIS LED TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES IN THOSE AREAS. OUTSIDE OF COASTAL MS RAIN RANGED FROM NEAR
AN INCH TO 5 INCHES MAINLY AROUND THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES.

ON LAST GASP OF RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE WE SEE ABOUT A 36 HR DRY
SPELL. THE BNDRY THAT WAS THE PROTAGONIST FOR THIS MORNINGS RAIN
IS STILL SITTING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SHRA AND TSRA ALONG THE BNDRY WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVNG HRS AND MAINLY ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDORS IN SELA.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS MID LVL RIDGING
WILL BUILD AS THE WRN CONUS L/W TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW
AND 4 CORNERS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
MS WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN FELL.

TOMORROW WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS
AND THE MS VALLEYS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE NERN GULF AND TO THE NNW THROUGH THE TN
VALLEYS...INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND ALL THE WAY INTO CNTRL
CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODIFIED REX BLOCK AND THUS PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER SOLID SWRLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE RAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HEADING INTO SAT THE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT CLOUDS
WILL START TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTN
AND EVNG HRS CONVECTION THAT WILL FIRE WEST OF THE REGION MAY PUSH
INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A WET PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT SAT AND LIKELY
THROUGH TUE. THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUN BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN BROAD LIFT...DEEP
MOISTURE...AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA SUN. TIMING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY
IMPULSE THAT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE...NOT A LOT OF
KINEMATICS TO WORK WITH BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS OVERACHIEVING.

HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THINGS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WET SIDE. MON MAY NOT BE TOO BAD WITH JUST LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FAR GREATER FORCING AND EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE FRONT INTO
THE GULF. OVERALL WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE WE
CAN ENJOY SOME VERY PLEASANT EARLY MAY WEATHER. L/W TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST PUTTING THE REGION UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT
AND THIS WILL DRIVE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AS A BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE SEEING MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AN MAY HAVE TO AMEND TAFS IF
STORMS THREATEN TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO FALL SOME OVERNIGHT TO
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT/LOW
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 12 HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS. LIKELY TO RENEW
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WINDS/WAVES TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THOUGH. THE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  87  70  82 /  10  10  10  30
BTR  71  87  72  83 /  20  10  20  40
ASD  71  85  71  84 /  20  10  10  20
MSY  73  86  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GPT  73  83  72  82 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  70  84  70  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-058-
     060>064-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080-081.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
40
00003522
1 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET WEATHER TREND IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END...AS SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LUFKIN TX TO EL DORADO
AR LINE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS
GENERAL AREA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NWRN E TX
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR TRAINING STORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.

AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXPAND TO COVER
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A SECONDARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND ADDITIONS TO THE ONGOING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO
BRING IT FURTHER S. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO LINGER OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A VERY SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SET FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...GIVING SOME
DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
A COOL DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...NOW STATIONARY FRONT WELL N OF I-10. SKC HERE W/
NE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER LA/SE RETURN FLOW OVER E TX. KSHV VAD
IS SHOWING SE FLOW 10KTS 2-5KFT...THEN VARIABLE TO AN INVERSION AT
10KFT WHERE SW FLOW 30-50KTS ALOFT EXTENDS ON UP. AN APPROACHING
UPPER STORM OVER AZ IS MOVG E WILL TRANSPORT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE PILES IN OFF E PAC/GULF. THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET WILL BE ALONG/OVER THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT 29/03-09Z. SCT/NUM TSTMS WILL BE IN/OUT IN WAVES UNTIL THE
NEXT FROPA 01/06-12Z. VFR POSSIBLE LATE SAT PRE FRONT AND THEN FOR
ALL SUNDAY WITH SFC N WINDS 5-10KTS AND N/NW 10-15KTS UP TO 10KFT.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  30  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  30  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  65  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  66  80  68  80 /  30  80  70  70
TYR  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  70  84  69  83 /  40  70  80  60
LFK  71  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET WEATHER TREND IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END...AS SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AZ. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE S OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NWD TONIGHT AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LUFKIN TX TO EL DORADO
AR LINE. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS
GENERAL AREA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR OUR FAR NWRN E TX
COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE PERFECT SET-UP FOR TRAINING STORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.

AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXPAND TO COVER
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH
THAT THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS MAY INTRODUCE A SECONDARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND ADDITIONS TO THE ONGOING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO
BRING IT FURTHER S. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS AS
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN LA/SRN AR AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO LINGER OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A VERY SHORT BREAK FROM PRECIP IS SET FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...GIVING SOME
DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
A COOL DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...NOW STATIONARY FRONT WELL N OF I-10. SKC HERE W/
NE SFC WINDS 5-10 KTS OVER LA/SE RETURN FLOW OVER E TX. KSHV VAD
IS SHOWING SE FLOW 10KTS 2-5KFT...THEN VARIABLE TO AN INVERSION AT
10KFT WHERE SW FLOW 30-50KTS ALOFT EXTENDS ON UP. AN APPROACHING
UPPER STORM OVER AZ IS MOVG E WILL TRANSPORT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE PILES IN OFF E PAC/GULF. THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET WILL BE ALONG/OVER THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT 29/03-09Z. SCT/NUM TSTMS WILL BE IN/OUT IN WAVES UNTIL THE
NEXT FROPA 01/06-12Z. VFR POSSIBLE LATE SAT PRE FRONT AND THEN FOR
ALL SUNDAY WITH SFC N WINDS 5-10KTS AND N/NW 10-15KTS UP TO 10KFT.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  84  68  83 /  30  70  80  60
MLU  68  84  70  81 /  30  70  60  70
DEQ  63  76  66  81 /  60  80  80  50
TXK  65  79  68  82 /  60  80  80  60
ELD  66  80  68  80 /  30  80  70  70
TYR  69  84  68  83 /  50  70  80  60
GGG  70  84  69  83 /  40  70  80  60
LFK  71  87  70  83 /  30  40  80  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

12

      
      

  
    
  
  
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