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00009B86000
FXUS64 KLCH 300418
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1118 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL JET
EXPANDS OVER THE REGION...YIELDING MVFR CLOUDINESS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. LOCAL VAD SHOWING 25 KT WIND AT 1K FT. LIFT/MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
AS HEATING WANES. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDINESS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANT SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  62  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  61  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  63  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300418
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1118 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL JET
EXPANDS OVER THE REGION...YIELDING MVFR CLOUDINESS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. LOCAL VAD SHOWING 25 KT WIND AT 1K FT. LIFT/MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
AS HEATING WANES. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDINESS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANT SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  62  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  61  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  63  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING THEM BETTER IN LINE WITH
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
AS HEATING WANES. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDINESS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANT SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  62  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  61  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  63  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING THEM BETTER IN LINE WITH
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
AS HEATING WANES. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDINESS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANT SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  62  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  61  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  63  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300213
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE
ZONES AND LOWER POPS A LITTLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION
WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EAST. THIS DECISION IS BASED ON A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND
LACK OF MOISTURE. CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD. DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON QFP AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LACK OF RAIN.

NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  72  61  79 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  59  74  58  80 /  20  30  10  20
DEQ  54  72  58  75 /  40  10  20  30
TXK  56  70  59  75 /  40  20  20  30
ELD  56  70  58  76 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  60  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  60  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  62  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300213
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE
ZONES AND LOWER POPS A LITTLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION
WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EAST. THIS DECISION IS BASED ON A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND
LACK OF MOISTURE. CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD. DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON QFP AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LACK OF RAIN.

NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  72  61  79 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  59  74  58  80 /  20  30  10  20
DEQ  54  72  58  75 /  40  10  20  30
TXK  56  70  59  75 /  40  20  20  30
ELD  56  70  58  76 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  60  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  60  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  62  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300213
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE
ZONES AND LOWER POPS A LITTLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION
WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EAST. THIS DECISION IS BASED ON A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND
LACK OF MOISTURE. CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD. DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON QFP AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LACK OF RAIN.

NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  72  61  79 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  59  74  58  80 /  20  30  10  20
DEQ  54  72  58  75 /  40  10  20  30
TXK  56  70  59  75 /  40  20  20  30
ELD  56  70  58  76 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  60  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  60  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  62  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300213
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE
ZONES AND LOWER POPS A LITTLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THE CONVECTION
WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EAST. THIS DECISION IS BASED ON A STABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND
LACK OF MOISTURE. CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD. DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON QFP AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LACK OF RAIN.

NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  72  61  79 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  59  74  58  80 /  20  30  10  20
DEQ  54  72  58  75 /  40  10  20  30
TXK  56  70  59  75 /  40  20  20  30
ELD  56  70  58  76 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  60  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  60  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  62  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292332
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
AS HEATING WANES. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDINESS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANT SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
00004000
 UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  60  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  62  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292332
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
AS HEATING WANES. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDINESS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANT SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  60  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  62  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. IN
ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM TEXAS COAST/CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO MICHIGAN. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORT WAVE FROM
WISCONSIN TO EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON A PLANER
VIEW INDICATION A SURGE AHEAD OR EAST OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. IN ADDITION...5H
TEMP LOWER TO -17C ACROSS MISSISSIPPI COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ERODE
THE CAP IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WITH MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND AND ABOVE -20C WILL LEAD A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH ZONES ON TUESDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH EURO
GOING WET AND GFS DRY. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO GFS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO
BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

18

&&

AVIATION...

CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. EXPECT CEILINGS IF ANY AROUND
SUNRISE WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.

&&

MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF AND DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  80  57  80 /  10  30  10  10
BTR  60  83  60  83 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  58  81  58  81 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  64  81  63  80 /   0  20  10  10
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10  40  10  10
PQL  57  80  57  80 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. IN
ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM TEXAS COAST/CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO MICHIGAN. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORT WAVE FROM
WISCONSIN TO EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON A PLANER
VIEW INDICATION A SURGE AHEAD OR EAST OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. IN ADDITION...5H
TEMP LOWER TO -17C ACROSS MISSISSIPPI COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ERODE
THE CAP IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WITH MODEST CAPE
VALUES AROUND AND ABOVE -20C WILL LEAD A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH ZONES ON TUESDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH EURO
GOING WET AND GFS DRY. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO GFS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO
BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

18

&&

AVIATION...

CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. EXPECT CEILINGS IF ANY AROUND
SUNRISE WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.

&&

MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF AND DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  80  57  80 /  10  30  10  10
BTR  60  83  60  83 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  58  81  58  81 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  64  81  63  80 /   0  20  10  10
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10  40  10  10
PQL  57  80  57  80 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292124
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  60  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  62  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292124
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOOKING FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAG IN WARMER GULF AIR INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AS TEMPS FALL TOWARDS 60.

A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. RAINS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL
BNDRY DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION WITH AM FOG AND PTCLDY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  61  79  61  79 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  60  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  62  80  62  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE F
00004000
ROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED AREA WIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER CU OVER OUR FAR ERN TERMINALS. SOUTH
WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
10 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE BACK NWRD ON MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY SO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST
TEXAS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNSET
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  71  61  80 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  59  71  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
DEQ  55  70  57  75 /  40  30  30  30
TXK  57  68  59  74 /  40  30  30  30
ELD  56  69  57  77 /  40  30  30  30
TYR  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  64  74  62  82 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED AREA WIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER CU OVER OUR FAR ERN TERMINALS. SOUTH
WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
10 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE BACK NWRD ON MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY SO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST
TEXAS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNSET
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  71  61  80 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  59  71  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
DEQ  55  70  57  75 /  40  30  30  30
TXK  57  68  59  74 /  40  30  30  30
ELD  56  69  57  77 /  40  30  30  30
TYR  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  64  74  62  82 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED AREA WIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER CU OVER OUR FAR ERN TERMINALS. SOUTH
WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
10 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE BACK NWRD ON MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY SO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST
TEXAS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNSET
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  71  61  80 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  59  71  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
DEQ  55  70  57  75 /  40  30  30  30
TXK  57  68  59  74 /  40  30  30  30
ELD  56  69  57  77 /  40  30  30  30
TYR  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  64  74  62  82 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291843
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED AREA WIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER CU OVER OUR FAR ERN TERMINALS. SOUTH
WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
10 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE BACK NWRD ON MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY SO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST
TEXAS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNSET
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  71  61  80 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  59  71  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
DEQ  55  70  57  75 /  40  30  30  30
TXK  57  68  59  74 /  40  30  30  30
ELD  56  69  57  77 /  40  30  30  30
TYR  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  62  72  62  78 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  64  74  62  82 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CU SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
WILL LOWER THE FLIGHT CAT TOWARD IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW
00004000
 SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CU SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
WILL LOWER THE FLIGHT CAT TOWARD IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CU SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
WILL LOWER THE FLIGHT CAT TOWARD IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CU SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
WILL LOWER THE FLIGHT CAT TOWARD IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CU SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
WILL LOWER THE FLIGHT CAT TOWARD IFR AND PERIODIC LIFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291544
AFDLCH

ARE
00004000
A FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291542
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST
TEXAS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNSET
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  71  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  71  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  70  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  68  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  69  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  72  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  72  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  74  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291542
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST
TEXAS TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNSET
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  71  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  71  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  70  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  68  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  69  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  72  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  72  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  74  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH KAEX EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...AND KLFT/KARA MVFR.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/15Z AS WINDS
INCREASE AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 29/17Z AND BECOME
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AGAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/09Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291032
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
532 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LA...INCLUDING THE KMLU TERMINAL...AS 925 MB MOISTURE IN EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING IN LOW CLOUD DECKS. MEANWHILE...RADIATION
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN LOCAL DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS AT KLFK.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL BY AROUND 29/15Z. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE OVER
NE TX. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD INTO SOUTH AR BTWN
30/06-09Z. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLD...IF ANY...OVER NE TX
PORTIONS OF THE REGION./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WE
00002C79
ST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291032
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
532 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LA...INCLUDING THE KMLU TERMINAL...AS 925 MB MOISTURE IN EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING IN LOW CLOUD DECKS. MEANWHILE...RADIATION
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN LOCAL DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS AT KLFK.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL BY AROUND 29/15Z. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE OVER
NE TX. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD INTO SOUTH AR BTWN
30/06-09Z. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLD...IF ANY...OVER NE TX
PORTIONS OF THE REGION./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE
DEEPENS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK TROF PASSES
EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE
GULF INFLUENCE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD
FORM OVER THE AREA TNITE INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM A STEADY FETCH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  59  78  59 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  76  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  77  62  77  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290952
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
00000F8E
 AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GONZALES TO HOUMA. SOME
PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND ONE INCH TODAY HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. THE GFS
MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM
OUT OF THE FORECAST CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIRMASS REMAINS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING NO MENTION OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. FAR REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WEAK
FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE ONE INCH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS...PRIMARILY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
THE AMOUNT OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WHICH PRODUCES POPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO MOSTLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK
00004000
END.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR RETURN. THIS HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS TO KMCB AROUND FL025-030...AND THOSE HAVE NOW LOWERED TO NEAR
FL015.

SINCE 08Z...HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FL030. EXPECT CEILINGS THAT ARE IN PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WILL SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. 35

&&

.MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF. ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 15
KNOTS TODAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  79  60  83  61 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  74  58  81  59 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  77  64  81  63 /  10   0  20  10
GPT  71  60  78  60 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  69  57  80  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290952
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GONZALES TO HOUMA. SOME
PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND ONE INCH TODAY HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. THE GFS
MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM
OUT OF THE FORECAST CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIRMASS REMAINS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING NO MENTION OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. FAR REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WEAK
FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE ONE INCH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS...PRIMARILY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
THE AMOUNT OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WHICH PRODUCES POPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO MOSTLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR RETURN. THIS HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS TO KMCB AROUND FL025-030...AND THOSE HAVE NOW LOWERED TO NEAR
FL015.

SINCE 08Z...HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FL030. EXPECT CEILINGS THAT ARE IN PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WILL SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. 35

&&

.MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF. ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 15
KNOTS TODAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  79  60  83  61 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  74  58  81  59 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  77  64  81  63 /  10   0  20  10
GPT  71  60  78  60 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  69  57  80  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290952
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GONZALES TO HOUMA. SOME
PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND ONE INCH TODAY HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. THE GFS
MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM
OUT OF THE FORECAST CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIRMASS REMAINS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING NO MENTION OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. FAR REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WEAK
FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE ONE INCH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS...PRIMARILY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
THE AMOUNT OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WHICH PRODUCES POPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO MOSTLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR RETURN. THIS HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS TO KMCB AROUND FL025-030...AND THOSE HAVE NOW LOWERED TO NEAR
FL015.

SINCE 08Z...HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FL030. EXPECT CEILINGS THAT ARE IN PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WILL SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. 35

&&

.MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF. ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 15
KNOTS TODAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  79  60  83  61 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  74  58  81  59 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  77  64  81  63 /  10   0  20  10
GPT  71  60  78  60 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  69  57  80  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290952
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GONZALES TO HOUMA. SOME
PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND ONE INCH TODAY HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. THE GFS
MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM
OUT OF THE FORECAST CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIRMASS REMAINS AT
THIS TIME.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING NO MENTION OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. FAR REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WEAK
FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE ONE INCH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH W
00004000
ILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS...PRIMARILY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
THE AMOUNT OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WHICH PRODUCES POPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO MOSTLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR RETURN. THIS HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS TO KMCB AROUND FL025-030...AND THOSE HAVE NOW LOWERED TO NEAR
FL015.

SINCE 08Z...HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FL030. EXPECT CEILINGS THAT ARE IN PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WILL SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. 35

&&

.MARINE...

NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF. ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 15
KNOTS TODAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  79  60  83  61 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  74  58  81  59 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  77  64  81  63 /  10   0  20  10
GPT  71  60  78  60 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  69  57  80  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM SE TX AND EASTERN LA
THIS MORNING PER IR IMAGERY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS NE TX AND
SW LA AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
15 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NE TX
INTO SE OK. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THIS REGION BEGINNING THE ADVISORY AT 15Z AND RUNNING IT THROUGH
21Z.

UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING PVA AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. GFS BACKDOORS THIS BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...INTO N LA WHILE THE NAM STALLS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE AR/LA BORDER. KEPT POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND OR WASH OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE
SOUTH WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN LOW
END CHANCE VARIETY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDA
00004000
Y...A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED IN THE
LATEST 00Z PROGS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
AREAWIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH PULLS
OUT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THU. WHILE BROAD SCALE LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  61  74  61 /  10  20  30  20
MLU  80  59  73  57 /  10  30  30  20
DEQ  76  55  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  77  57  72  59 /  10  40  30  30
ELD  78  56  72  57 /  10  40  30  30
TYR  84  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
GGG  82  62  75  62 /  10  20  30  20
LFK  85  64  81  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290524
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  79  58  80 /  10  20  20  30
BTR  59  83  60  82 /   0  20  10  20
ASD  59  81  59  80 /   0  20  10  20
MSY  65  81  63  81 /   0  20  10  20
GPT  61  79  63  78 /   0  20  20  20
PQL  58  80  59  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290524
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  79  58  80 /  10  20  20  30
BTR  59  83  60  82 /   0  20  10  20
ASD  59  81  59  80 /   0  20  10  20
MSY  65  81  63  81 /   0  20  10  20
GPT  61  79  63  78 /   0  20  20  20
PQL  58  80  59  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290524
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  79  58  80 /  10  20  20  30
BTR  59  83  60  82 /   0  20  10  20
ASD  59  81  59  80 /   0  20  10  20
MSY  65  81  63  81 /   0  20  10  20
GPT  61  79  63  78 /   0  20  20  20
PQL  58  80  59  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290524
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGH
00004000
T
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  79  58  80 /  10  20  20  30
BTR  59  83  60  82 /   0  20  10  20
ASD  59  81  59  80 /   0  20  10  20
MSY  65  81  63  81 /   0  20  10  20
GPT  61  79  63  78 /   0  20  20  20
PQL  58  80  59  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THEN INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290501
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY PATCHY BR MAY BE OVERRUN BY
SOME PATCHY STRATUS LOW DECKS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 14-16Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS WITH SOME 20 PLUS GUSTS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW
BY 6KFT- 10KFT THE
00004000
N INCREASING TO 20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290408
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLEAR SKIES ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCOMING ON A REESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAINTAINING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS WILL YIELD A GUSTY SOUTH FLOW. OVERALL...VFR AHEAD.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290408
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLEAR SKIES ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCOMING ON A REESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAINTAINING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS WILL YIELD A GUSTY SOUTH FLOW. OVERALL...VFR AHEAD.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290408
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLEAR SKIES ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCOMING ON A REESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAINTAINING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS WILL YIELD A GUSTY SOUTH FLOW. OVERALL...VFR AHEAD.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN C
00004000
HANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOME STRATUS LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 15-17Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW BY 6KFT-10KFT...INCREASING TO
20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING DUE TO CAA. THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. WARMEST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN DEEP EAST TEXAS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO FCST ATTM.

/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOME STRATUS LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 15-17Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW BY 6KFT-10KFT...INCREASING TO
20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOME STRATUS LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 15-17Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW BY 6KFT-10KFT...INCREASING TO
20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOME STRATUS LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 15-17Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW BY 6KFT-10KFT...INCREASING TO
20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOME STRATUS LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY 15-17Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW TO 10-20 KTS. OUTLOOK IS FOR SHWRS/ISOLD
TSTMS AFTER 31/06Z AND INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. ATTM OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE LIGHT SW...VEERING TO W THEN NW BY 6KFT-10KFT...INCREASING TO
20-50KTS. LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT IS LIKELY INTO THE NEW WEEK. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282317
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61 
00000B12
 80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282317
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLIES NOW
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER TEXAS. CARRYING LATE NIGHT LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

00004000

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  46  77  58 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  50  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  44  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  46  77  58 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  50  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  44  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1029MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND HALF INCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...DISTURBANCE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WAS PRESENT FOR ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT EAST
AND ALLOW THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SATURATION
AND POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND EURO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT DECREASE
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. 18

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
PERIODS WHERE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE
WINDS BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  46  77  58 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  50  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  44  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN WASHING OUT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PAST DAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
HOWEVER DURING MONDAY/MON NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AND STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS NE TX, N LA, AND CENTRAL
MS. LOCALLY, THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SW FOR MON AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA AND ACADIANA. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING BY WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  78  61  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  78  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  61  78 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K.KUYPER/TINGLER

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 / 
00004000
  0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
248 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT
TO STALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
MLU  47  78  61  73 /   0  10  10  30
DEQ  42  76  57  69 /   0  10  40  30
TXK  44  76  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
ELD  44  77  59  69 /   0  10  30  30
TYR  54  78  62  73 /   0  10  10  30
GGG  52  79  61  72 /   0  10  10  30
LFK  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281903
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD SUNSET.
S/SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 5 KTS OR
LESS...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT MOST SITES WITH A WEAK SFC BNDRY
OVER DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W CNTRL LA. SOME CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWRD TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH PATCHY FOG
ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO STRATUS ARRIVING AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CIGS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 10-20 KTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281903
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD SUNSET.
S/SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 5 KTS OR
LESS...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT MOST SITES WITH A WEAK SFC BNDRY
OVER DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W CNTRL LA. SOME CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWRD TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH PATCHY FOG
ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO STRATUS ARRIVING AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CIGS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 10-20 KTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281903
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARD SUNSET.
S/SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 5 KTS OR
LESS...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT MOST SITES WITH A WEAK SFC BNDRY
OVER DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W CNTRL LA. SOME CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWRD TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH PATCHY FOG
ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO STRATUS ARRIVING AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CIGS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 10-20 KTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  78  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  80  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  63  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  78  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  80  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  63  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  78  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  53  80  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  63  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  78  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  55  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  1
00004000
0
LFT  53  80  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
BPT  57  78  63  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS
TODAY TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO ALIGN WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...CARRIED ONGOING MORNING POP CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/99

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO O
00004000
UR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS THRU AT LEAST 29/06Z.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER SW AR AND SE OK THIS
AFTN...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS. THESE MID LVL CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 06Z AT KELD...KTXK...KMLU...AND
POSSIBLY KSHV AND KGGG...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTN 5 TO 10 KTS...WILL BECOME EASTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA RE
00004000
GION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ARE MOVING SSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR NORTH AND NE ZONES FOR THIS
MORNING. ALSO BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS N
00004000
W FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  20   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  20   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  20   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  20   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280956
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
456 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY THAT WERE
EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY WILL CARRY FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES COVERING A BROAD SPECTRUM THAT WILL SATISFY THOSE
THAT LIKE BOTH COOL AND WARM. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VERY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A BIG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BIG ROUGH OVER THE EAST. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND GET SUPPRESSED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RATHER COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT
THEN RECOVER QUICKLY IN THE WARM LATE MARCH SUN. HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE TO A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY GIVEN THE LOW MODEL BIAS
THAT HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY OCCURRING IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO.

THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY... ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND LAZILY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T/STORMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SIMILAR TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLOWEST
PUSHING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS FASTER. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ONE OR TWO FORECAST PERIODS THE MOST...AND THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT SOME POINT ONCE THE TIMING
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND
KEEPING CHANCE POPS...AND HAVE KEPT THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT FROM THE WEST
POSSIBLY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING AND PLAN IS FOR NO EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WITH THE 09Z ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR VICKSBURG MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WIND
BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE WINDS
WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS
BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THEN RETURN TO THEIR MORE USUAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ORIENTATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS
BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  46  77  59 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  49  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  46  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280956
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
456 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY THAT WERE
EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY WILL CARRY FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES COVERING A BROAD SPECTRUM THAT WILL SATISFY THOSE
THAT LIKE BOTH COOL AND WARM. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VERY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A BIG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BIG ROUGH OVER THE EAST. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND GET SUPPRESSED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RATHER COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT
THEN RECOVER QUICKLY IN THE WARM LATE MARCH SUN. HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE TO A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY GIVEN THE LOW MODEL BIAS
THAT HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY OCCURRING IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO.

THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY... ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND LAZILY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T/STORMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SIMILAR TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLOWEST
PUSHING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS FASTER. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ONE OR TWO FORECAST PERIODS THE MOST...AND THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT SOME POINT ONCE THE TIMING
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND
KEEPING CHANCE POPS...AND HAVE KEPT THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT FROM THE WEST
POSSIBLY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING AND PLAN IS FOR NO EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WITH THE 09Z ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR VICKSBURG MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WIND
BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE WINDS
WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS
BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THEN RETURN TO THEIR MORE USUAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ORIENTATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS
BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  46  77  59 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  49  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  46  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
00004000
..
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280755
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID MISS AND
TENN VALLEY TODAY BUT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. WE WILL
HOWEVER BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF...MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARM UP AREAWIDE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID MISS
VALLEY TODAY COULD BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHEAST HALF BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THIS TROUGH SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING OUT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

BEYOND TUE...WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
TROUGH IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE WE`VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  52  81  59 /  10   0  10  20
MLU  67  47  79  57 /  10   0  10  20
DEQ  66  41  75  53 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  69  45  77  55 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  65  46  77  56 /  10   0  10  30
TYR  78  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  76  52  82  58 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  81  55  83  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280539
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS DOWN TO 0.51 INCH. NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW WAS
GENERALLY OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN
00004000
TO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  76  57  77 /  10   0   0  30
BTR  53  79  59  80 /  10   0   0  20
ASD  48  75  60  78 /  10   0   0  20
MSY  56  77  62  79 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  51  72  61  76 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  44  72  59  76 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280539
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS DOWN TO 0.51 INCH. NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW WAS
GENERALLY OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  76  57  77 /  10   0   0  30
BTR  53  79  59  80 /  10   0   0  20
ASD  48  75  60  78 /  10   0   0  20
MSY  56  77  62  79 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  51  72  61  76 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  44  72  59  76 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280539
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS DOWN TO 0.51 INCH. NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW WAS
GENERALLY OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  76  57  77 /  10   0   0  30
BTR  53  79  59  80 /  10   0   0  20
ASD  48  75  60  78 /  10   0   0  20
MSY  56  77  62  79 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  51  72  61  76 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  44  72  59  76 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 280539
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS DOWN TO 0.51 INCH. NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILED IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW WAS
GENERALLY OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE

00003B54
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  76  57  77 /  10   0   0  30
BTR  53  79  59  80 /  10   0   0  20
ASD  48  75  60  78 /  10   0   0  20
MSY  56  77  62  79 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  51  72  61  76 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  44  72  59  76 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW MID CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS WITH SFC WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT
FROM NE TO SE...AND LIKELY TO BE SO AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK WITH
S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK
BR/FG IF CALM...BUT VFR QUICK TO RETURN. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE MORE OR LESS NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH 10-50KTS BY
8KFT...AROUND 75-85 KTS BY FL200-FL300 RESPECTIVELY. THIS NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK TO SW FROM THE BOTTOM UP LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MORE SW WIND SUNDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AFTER 30/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AS STRONG SURFACE BASED
INVERSION TAKES HOLD THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE RURAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT FEEL THIS IS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE MORE UNIFORM...IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
AREA WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.

/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WEAK BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER-TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  74  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  38  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  42  70  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  66  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  45  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  43  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/14/05

      
      

  
    
  
  
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