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0000BACA000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171614
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171614
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REM
00004000
NANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT
00002E9E
 WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND 
00004000
POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST
00004000
 WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSD
000020A5
AY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170514
AFDSHV
00004000

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AS SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MX IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH USUALLY
TEND TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW LVL AIRMASS IS QUITE
MOIST AND AREAS AROUND LUFKIN RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST 24 HRS. IF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DO MATERIALIZE...IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING. MORE SCT CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY S OF I-20.
KLFK WOULD BE THE TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT A WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SCT CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER 18/00Z. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  69  90  70 /  20  30  10  10  10
MLU  70  89  67  90  69 /  10  30  10  10  10
DEQ  69  87  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
ELD  70  87  66  89  67 /  10  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  88  70  89  71 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  71  89  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  88  72  90  71 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AS SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MX IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH USUALLY
TEND TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW LVL AIRMASS IS QUITE
MOIST AND AREAS AROUND LUFKIN RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST 24 HRS. IF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DO MATERIALIZE...IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING. MORE SCT CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY S OF I-20.
KLFK WOULD BE THE TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT A WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SCT CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER 18/00Z. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  69  90  70 /  20  30  10  10  10
MLU  70  89  67  90  69 /  10  30  10  10  10
DEQ  69  87  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
ELD  70  87  66  89  67 /  10  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  88  70  89  71 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  71  89  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  88  72  90  71 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170419
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND
WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE AGAIN A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170419
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND
WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE AGAIN A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170240
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170240
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER T
000016E1
HAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED 
00004000
OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
00004000

WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 162051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS TO BE
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS OF
I-10 AND I-12.  MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NW TO SE
00004000
 BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYING CELLS HAVE COMPLICATED MOVEMENT AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY
FOR SUBTLE MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STILL IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD ALSO FAVOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADIENT FROM ISOLATED IN NORTHEAST ZONES TO 50 PCT
ALONG THE LA COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILITY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
HOWEVER BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT
DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A DECAY STAGE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATERSPOUTS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DIMINISHED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH USUAL DIURNAL ONSHORE/OFFSHORE TRENDS.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS SOLUTION OF 20
KNOT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE. WILL GO WITH A
NON GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KNOTS...AND
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE TEMPERED WAVE HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWELL
MAY ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS AND TIDAL LEVELS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD START WINDING DOWN
CLOSE TO SUNSET...WITH MOST OR ALL TERMINALS SHED OF THEIR
CONVECTION BY 01Z OR 02Z. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT KHUM...KNEW AND KMSY FOR
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  90  69  89 /  30  20  10  20
BTR  71  91  70  89 /  30  30  10  40
ASD  71  90  72  89 /  30  30  10  30
MSY  75  89  76  88 /  30  30  10  30
GPT  72  90  73  89 /  30  30  10  20
PQL  69  89  70  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 162051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS TO BE
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS OF
I-10 AND I-12.  MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NW TO SE BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYING CELLS HAVE COMPLICATED MOVEMENT AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY
FOR SUBTLE MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STILL IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD ALSO FAVOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADIENT FROM ISOLATED IN NORTHEAST ZONES TO 50 PCT
ALONG THE LA COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILITY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
HOWEVER BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT
DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A DECAY STAGE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATERSPOUTS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DIMINISHED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH USUAL DIURNAL ONSHORE/OFFSHORE TRENDS.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS SOLUTION OF 20
KNOT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE. WILL GO WITH A
NON GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KNOTS...AND
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE TEMPERED WAVE HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWELL
MAY ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS AND TIDAL LEVELS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD START WINDING DOWN
CLOSE TO SUNSET...WITH MOST OR ALL TERMINALS SHED OF THEIR
CONVECTION BY 01Z OR 02Z. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT KHUM...KNEW AND KMSY FOR
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  90  69  89 /  30  20  10  20
BTR  71  91  70  89 /  30  30  10  40
ASD  71  90  72  89 /  30  30  10  30
MSY  75  89  76  88 /  30  30  10  30
GPT  72  90  73  89 /  30  30  10  20
PQL  69  89  70  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161809
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161809
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKEL
00004000
Y BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  
00004000
88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY 
00004000
AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161059
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM MID LVL VFR CLOUD DECKS. LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF MODERATE
SHOWERS. ISOLD AFTN TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BUT
MOSTLY A SCATTERING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED BY 17/00Z.
WINDS TO REMAIN VRB TO NEAR 5 KTS FROM THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161059
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM MID LVL VFR CLOUD DECKS. LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF MODERATE
SHOWERS. ISOLD AFTN TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BUT
MOSTLY A SCATTERING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED BY 17/00Z.
WINDS TO REMAIN VRB TO NEAR 5 KTS FROM THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST
00004000
 A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161059
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM MID LVL VFR CLOUD DECKS. LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF MODERATE
SHOWERS. ISOLD AFTN TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BUT
MOSTLY A SCATTERING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED BY 17/00Z.
WINDS TO REMAIN VRB TO NEAR 5 KTS FROM THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161059
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM MID LVL VFR CLOUD DECKS. LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF MODERATE
SHOWERS. ISOLD AFTN TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BUT
MOSTLY A SCATTERING OUT OF MID LVL CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED BY 17/00Z.
WINDS TO REMAIN VRB TO NEAR 5 KTS FROM THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE LEFT OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODEST WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SADDLEPOINT ZONE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGES OF DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY FOR SUBTLE
MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WOULD ALSO FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS COULD BE HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IF NOT LIMITED BY
PROXIMITY TO COL PROVIDING LESS THAN OPTIMAL DEEP LAYERED INFLOW.
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DIVERGENCE TO PLACE A RELIANCE ON ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO PERPETUATE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER
THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILTY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT MONDAY AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INDICATED. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF DAYS IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION...HANDLING WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE BUT
SOME ROUGHNESS FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY A LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT...CAPTAIN LEE RECOVERY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  69  90  69 /  40  30  20  10
BTR  90  71  91  70 /  40  30  30  10
ASD  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  20  10
MSY  90  75  89  76 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  89  72  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  90  69  89  70 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE LEFT OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODEST WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SADDLEPOINT ZONE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGES OF DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY FOR SUBTLE
MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WOULD ALSO FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS COULD BE HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IF NOT LIMITED BY
PROXIMITY TO COL PROVIDING LESS THAN OPTIMAL DEEP LAYERED INFLOW.
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DIVERGENCE TO PLACE A RELIANCE ON ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO PERPETUATE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER
THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILTY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT MONDAY AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INDICATED. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF DAYS IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION...HANDLING WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE BUT
SOME ROUGHNESS FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY A LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT...CAPTAIN LEE RECOVERY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  69  90  69 /  40  30  20  10
BTR  90  71  91  70 /  40  30  30  10
ASD  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  20  10
MSY  90  75  89  76 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  89  72  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  90  69  89  70 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE LEFT OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODEST WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SADDLEPOINT ZONE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGES OF DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY FOR SUBTLE
MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WOULD ALSO FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS COULD BE HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IF NOT LIMITED BY
PROXIMITY TO COL PROVIDING LESS THAN OPTIMAL DEEP LAYERED INFLOW.
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DIVERGENCE TO PLACE A RELIANCE ON ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO PERPETUATE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER
THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILTY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT MONDAY AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INDICATED. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF DAYS IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION...HANDLING WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE BUT
SOME ROUGHNESS FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY A LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT...CAPTAIN LEE RECOVERY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  69  
00003775
90  69 /  40  30  20  10
BTR  90  71  91  70 /  40  30  30  10
ASD  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  20  10
MSY  90  75  89  76 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  89  72  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  90  69  89  70 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160901
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE LEFT OF DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODEST WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SADDLEPOINT ZONE HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGES OF DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY FOR SUBTLE
MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WOULD ALSO FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS COULD BE HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IF NOT LIMITED BY
PROXIMITY TO COL PROVIDING LESS THAN OPTIMAL DEEP LAYERED INFLOW.
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DIVERGENCE TO PLACE A RELIANCE ON ANY MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO PERPETUATE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER
THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILTY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT MONDAY AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INDICATED. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...AN UNSETTLED STRETCH OF DAYS IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION...HANDLING WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE BUT
SOME ROUGHNESS FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY A LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT...CAPTAIN LEE RECOVERY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  69  90  69 /  40  30  20  10
BTR  90  71  91  70 /  40  30  30  10
ASD  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  20  10
MSY  90  75  89  76 /  50  30  30  10
GPT  89  72  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  90  69  89  70 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160900
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160900
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160900
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160900
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID 70S WITH OUR DEW POINTS AROUND 70 OR SO. THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
THE HEAVIER ECHOES NOW TO OUR NE. THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A BIT
OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER NE TX WITH ANOTHER SECONDARY SPOKE OVER
NB AND N OK PHASING DOWN INTO NE TX WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N/NE U.S.

SO...THIS LIFT IS REALLY ON THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION NOW...BUT
WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSH OF FORCING ALREADY INDICATED ON AREA
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP OUR CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND TEMPS JUST A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOT OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM ODILE/S MOISTURE. AND IN ANY
CASE...TODAY IS HYBRID HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WITH ACTUAL BUCKET
TOTALS LIKELY TO BE LEFT WANTING DESPITE A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT IS
TRYING TO BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS WINDS ARE LIGHT NE
WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC. CONSIDERING OUR VAD IS
STILL SHOWING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF ENE WIND FLOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. ALOFT...WE QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO SW FLOW
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

THE WPC QPF IS LIGHT AND IN AND OUT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE
WEEK. SPC HAS US GENERALLY UNDER THUNDER THROUGH DAY THREE. BEYOND
THAT...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH A WEEKEND COLD FRONT. WE
HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER AND WETTER EURO AT THIS TIME FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND TIME FRAME. NEW MEX IN MUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  71  92  72  90 /  30  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  30
DEQ  86  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  86  68  90  71  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  30  10  20  20  30
TYR  87  71  91  72  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  91  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
LFK  89  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF F
00004000
RONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160502
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE MIST AT HUM AND
MCB. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALL OVER THE AREA WILL SERVE A
FOCUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION NR AND AROUND
EACH TAF SITES. WILL INSERT TEMPO GROUPS AT EACH TAF SITE 19Z TO
23Z TUESDAY.

&&

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160502
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE MIST AT HUM AND
MCB. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALL OVER THE AREA WILL SERVE A
FOCUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION NR AND AROUND
EACH TAF SITES. WILL INSERT TEMPO GROUPS AT EACH TAF SITE 19Z TO
23Z TUESDAY.

&&

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM HURRICANE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. VCSH AND OCCASIONAL -RA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TYR...GGG...LFK..AND TXK OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LFK FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE REGION WIDE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AT MOST SITES BY 06Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHWRS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS PRECIP HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT VERY FEW OBS SITES AND CEILINGS ARE STILL REGISTERING
ABOVE 12 KFT. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND GRIDS BUT THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT/S FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09/20

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM HURRICANE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. VCSH AND OCCASIONAL -RA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TYR...GGG...LFK..AND TXK OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LFK FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE REGION WIDE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AT MOST SITES BY 06Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHWRS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS PRECIP HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT VERY FEW OBS SITES AND CEILINGS ARE STILL REGISTERING
ABOVE 12 KFT. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND GRIDS BUT THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT/S FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09/20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND 
00004000
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160244 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
944 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SHWRS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS PRECIP HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT VERY FEW OBS SITES AND CEILINGS ARE STILL REGISTERING
ABOVE 12 KFT. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND GRIDS BUT THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT/S FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM HURRICANE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TYR AND TXK THIS EVENING AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LFK FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST SITES THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...VCSH AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE REGION WIDE THROUGH
00Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160244 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
944 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SHWRS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS PRECIP HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT VERY FEW OBS SITES AND CEILINGS ARE STILL REGISTERING
ABOVE 12 KFT. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND GRIDS BUT THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT/S FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM HURRICANE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TYR AND TXK THIS EVENING AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LFK FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST SITES THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...VCSH AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE REGION WIDE THROUGH
00Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES 
00004000
COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160239
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLFT/KARA/KLCH SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/01Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR...SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87 /  20  70  40  40
KBPT  77  88  74  87 /  20  60  40  50
KAEX  72  88  70  89 /  20  70  20  30
KLFT  74  87  73  88 /  20  70  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 160239
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLFT/KARA/KLCH SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/01Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR...SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87 /  20  70  40  40
KBPT  77  88  74  87 /  20  60  40  50
KAEX  72  88  70  89 /  20  70  20  30
KLFT  74  87  73  88 /  20  70  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 160007
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM HURRICANE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TYR AND TXK THIS EVENING AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT LFK FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST SITES THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...VCSH AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE REGION WIDE THROUGH
00Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20

000
FXUS64 KLCH 152333
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLFT/KARA/KLCH SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/01Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR...SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 152053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20

00004000
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 152053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 152053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 152053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLIX 152027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR A
HATTIESBURG TO MORGAN CITY LINE. SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES NEARED
90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...20
PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE WEDNESDAY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT GET EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...A SKINNY UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
EACH DAY. MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER COLD
FRONT AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN OUTFLOW DRIVEN
STORM MOVEMENT. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A CELL
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS FLUCTUATE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE TAFS WITH SOME TEMPO
GROUPS ANTICIPATING THE HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW/S CONTINUED WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS ALLOWING THIS
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THUS WINDS/SEAS ARE DECREASING AS
WELL. OUTER WATERS ARE NOW ONLY SEEING WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE 10KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW BUT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MORE STEADY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SPEEDS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST THE 15 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET WITH THAT WIND SPEED
AND ABOUT A 200 MILE FETCH.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  69  90 /  30  50  20  20
BTR  73  90  71  91 /  30  70  20  30
ASD  74  90  71  90 /  30  70  30  20
MSY  77  90  75  89 /  30  70  30  30
GPT  75  89  72  90 /  30  70  30  20
PQL  73  90  69  90 /  30  70  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 152027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR A
HATTIESBURG TO MORGAN CITY LINE. SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES NEARED
90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...20
PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE WEDNESDAY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT GET EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...A SKINNY UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
EACH DAY. MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER COLD
FRONT AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN OUTFLOW DRIVEN
STORM MOVEMENT. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A CELL
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS FLUCTUATE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE TAFS WITH SOME TEMPO
GROUPS ANTICIPATING THE HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW/S CONTINUED WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS ALLOWING THIS
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THUS WINDS/SEAS ARE DECREASING AS
WELL. OUTER WATERS ARE NOW ONLY SEEING WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE 10KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW BUT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MORE STEADY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SPEEDS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST THE 15 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET WITH THAT WIND SPEED
AND ABOUT A 200 MILE FETCH.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
Y
00004000
ELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  69  90 /  30  50  20  20
BTR  73  90  71  91 /  30  70  20  30
ASD  74  90  71  90 /  30  70  30  20
MSY  77  90  75  89 /  30  70  30  30
GPT  75  89  72  90 /  30  70  30  20
PQL  73  90  69  90 /  30  70  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 152027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR A
HATTIESBURG TO MORGAN CITY LINE. SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES NEARED
90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...20
PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE WEDNESDAY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT GET EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...A SKINNY UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
EACH DAY. MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER COLD
FRONT AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN OUTFLOW DRIVEN
STORM MOVEMENT. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A CELL
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS FLUCTUATE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE TAFS WITH SOME TEMPO
GROUPS ANTICIPATING THE HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW/S CONTINUED WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS ALLOWING THIS
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THUS WINDS/SEAS ARE DECREASING AS
WELL. OUTER WATERS ARE NOW ONLY SEEING WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE 10KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW BUT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MORE STEADY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SPEEDS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST THE 15 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET WITH THAT WIND SPEED
AND ABOUT A 200 MILE FETCH.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  69  90 /  30  50  20  20
BTR  73  90  71  91 /  30  70  20  30
ASD  74  90  71  90 /  30  70  30  20
MSY  77  90  75  89 /  30  70  30  30
GPT  75  89  72  90 /  30  70  30  20
PQL  73  90  69  90 /  30  70  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 152027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR A
HATTIESBURG TO MORGAN CITY LINE. SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES NEARED
90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...20
PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE WEDNESDAY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT GET EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...A SKINNY UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
EACH DAY. MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER COLD
FRONT AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN OUTFLOW DRIVEN
STORM MOVEMENT. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A CELL
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS FLUCTUATE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE TAFS WITH SOME TEMPO
GROUPS ANTICIPATING THE HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW/S CONTINUED WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS ALLOWING THIS
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THUS WINDS/SEAS ARE DECREASING AS
WELL. OUTER WATERS ARE NOW ONLY SEEING WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE 10KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW BUT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MORE STEADY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SPEEDS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST THE 15 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET WITH THAT WIND SPEED
AND ABOUT A 200 MILE FETCH.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  69  90 /  30  50  20  20
BTR  73  90  71  91 /  30  70  20  30
ASD  74  90  71  90 /  30  70  30  20
MSY  77  90  75  89 /  30  70  30  30
GPT  75  89  72  90 /  30  70  30  20
PQL  73  90  69  90 /  30  70  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 152021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 152021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 152021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 152021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  
00000942
30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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