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0000A5E8000
FXUS64 KSHV 301620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1120 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A near cloudless sky is observed across the region with 11 AM
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Expect some very
spotty CU to develop later in the afternoon but mostly sunny skies
will prevail. The current forecast look to be well on track so no
changes are planned at this time. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/12Z TAF period. A
small area of AC near/just W of TXK should thin out by mid to late
morning...with a weak cu field developing by midday/early
afternoon especially over E TX/Ncntrl LA/SE OK. These will
dissipate shortly after 00Z...with possibly some thin cirrus
spilling SE into the area overnight. Any isolated -TSRA this
afternoon will be confined to SE TX/Srn LA...SSE of the LFK
terminal where the deeper low level moisture will reside today.
ENE winds around 5kts today will become LT/VRB after 00Z...with a
light SE wind returning to E TX late. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  93  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  95  74  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  95  72  95  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301555
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Combo of decaying sfc boundary and weak low/shear axis aloft
continues to produce scattered convection over the nwrn Gulf this
morning. Water vapor imagery shows a little area of drier air
pushing into the region from the north ATTM which should help
limit convection over the nrn zones this afternoon...otherwise
expect another summer-like day with a few showers/storms to
develop with heating later. Inherited grids/zones look in good
shape with minimal changes...thus no update is planned for now.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  92  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301247
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
747 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning depicts a tropical airmass. PW is above
average at 2.05 inches and the profile is very moist from the sfc
to about 550 mb. Winds are light and variable from the sfc to 300
mb then become light from the west. About 1000 J/KG of mixed layer
CAPE and 2200 J/KG of most unstable CAPE will still allow for
scattered storms today... especially to the south and over coastal
waters. Waterspouts are possible under building cumulus towers
this morning as one was already reported at dawn near the
spillway.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  40  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301247
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
747 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning depicts a tropical airmass. PW is above
average at 2.05 inches and the profile is very moist from the sfc
to about 550 mb. Winds are light and variable from the sfc to 300
mb then become light from the west. About 1000 J/KG of mixed layer
CAPE and 2200 J/KG of most unstable CAPE will still allow for
scattered storms today... especially to the south and over coastal
waters. Waterspouts are possible under building cumulus towers
this morning as one was already reported at dawn near the
spillway.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  40  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301146 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/12Z TAF period. A
small area of AC near/just W of TXK should thin out by mid to late
morning...with a weak cu field developing by midday/early
afternoon especially over E TX/Ncntrl LA/SE OK. These will
dissipate shortly after 00Z...with possibly some thin cirrus
spilling SE into the area overnight. Any isolated -TSRA this
afternoon will be confined to SE TX/Srn LA...SSE of the LFK
terminal where the deeper low level moisture will reside today.
ENE winds around 5kts today will become LT/VRB after 00Z...with a
light SE wind returning to E TX late. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure and northwest flow of dry air aloft to
prevail across the region through the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the mid 90s areawide
with dewpoint values forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s.
With drier air at the surface, heat index values to remain at or
below 100 degrees today.

Moisture to gradually increase across the region on Saturday as
surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow returns
across the region. With upper-level ridge forecast to build across
the region through the weekend, temperatures are forecast to
climb into the mid 90s areawide. Heat index values ranging from
100 to 105 degrees are forecast through much of next week.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected through the forecast
period. The exception will be on Independence day as an upper-
level disturbance progressing east across the northern plains into
the midwest will allow for a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the interstate 30 corridor. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  96  75 /   5   5   5   5
MLU  93  71  95  74 /   5   5   5   5
DEQ  94  70  94  72 /   5   5   5   5
TXK  94  72  95  74 /   5   5   5   5
ELD  93  69  95  73 /   5   5   5   5
TYR  95  74  96  76 /   5   5   5   5
GGG  95  72  95  74 /   5   5   5   5
LFK  95  72  95  75 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300849
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

.LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  40  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300832
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  92  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

K. Kuyper

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300832
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  92  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

K. Kuyper

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300720
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
220 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure and northwest flow of dry air aloft to
prevail across the region through the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the mid 90s areawide
with dewpoint values forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s.
With drier air at the surface, heat index values to remain at or
below 100 degrees today.

Moisture to gradually increase across the region on Saturday as
surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow returns
across the region. With upper-level ridge forecast to build across
the region through the weekend, temperatures are forecast to
climb into the mid 90s areawide. Heat index values ranging from
100 to 105 degrees are forecast through much of next week.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected through the forecast
period. The exception will be on Independence day as an upper-
level disturbance progressing east across the northern plains into
the midwest will allow for a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the interstate 30 corridor. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  93  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  95  74  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  95  72  95  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300453
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...Only one terminal is currently dealing with issues and
that is HDC with lowered vsbys and cigs. All other terminals are
currently in VFR status and foresee this to continue through the
night and the morning until convection tries to develop again
tomorrow afternoon. That said terminals may not see nearly as much
impact from convection as they have the last two days but have opted
to mention VCTS at most terminals around 20/21z. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
MSY  75  90  76  91 /  40  40  20  20
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  71  90  72  92 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300452
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
The lingering -SHRA that was once well North of ktxk have
diminished. MVFR haze briefly occurred at klfk earlier this
evening, therefore insinuating that holding on to overnight MVFR
fog as well as MVFR-IFR scattered CIGS is warranted. Furthermore,
can not rule out VFR fog at keld as hinted at by computer models.
Otherwise, relatively light East to Southeast winds are expected
throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
No changes needed at this time. We will resend the zones to remove
early to mid evening wording on slight/chance pops/wx to 03Z. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300301
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
No changes needed at this time. We will resend the zones to remove
early to mid evening wording on slight/chance pops/wx to 03Z. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Scattered -TSRA noted well North of ktxk and keld were gradually
drifting South. A few computer models hint at this activity
nearing/affecting the said terminals, therefore a VCTS is
warranted for a few hours. By this evening, any lingering
precipitation should be waning. Attention will turn to the
potential for VFR fog particularly at keld and klfk overnight,
with hints of FEW-SCT MVFR-IFR CIGS, more so at klfk. Otherwise,
light East to Southeast winds will prevail. Tomorrow afternoon,
chances for rain should remain South of all terminals, though can
not rule out a few stray storms nearing klfk.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300136
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
836 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak pressure gradient over the region due to
proximity to sfc trof across SE TX/S LA and adjacent coastal
waters. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA still occurring, but diminishing this
evening, confined to the coastal parishes/counties and eventually
the coastal waters once again. Updated forecast earlier to reflect
this, and current trends support eventually increasing SHRA/TSRA
across the coastal waters later tonight into THU. Otherwise,
ongoing forecast on target.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  30  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  50  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300136
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
836 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak pressure gradient over the region due to
proximity to sfc trof across SE TX/S LA and adjacent coastal
waters. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA still occurring, but diminishing this
evening, confined to the coastal parishes/counties and eventually
the coastal waters once again. Updated forecast earlier to reflect
this, and current trends support eventually increasing SHRA/TSRA
across the coastal waters later tonight into THU. Otherwise,
ongoing forecast on target.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  30  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  50  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300118
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
818 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Routine flight terminated over the middle of Lake Pontchartrain at
a height of 115,800 feet or almost 22 miles above the surface.

Airmass continues to be extremely moist with a precipitable water
value of 2.21 inches, similar to the previous 3 flights. Still
unstable with a lifted index of -5 and CAPE of almost 2000 J/Kg.
Lapse rates were between 5.5 and 6C/Km. Some dry air evident in
the sounding between 400 and 500 mb. Freezing level at 15,400
feet, -20C at about 26,000 feet and wet bulb zero at 15,000 feet.

Winds generally northeast to east from launch through 500 mb,
northerly between 400 and 500 mb, then generally westerly for the
remainder of the flight. A little more wind at jet level than the
last couple of nights with a 39 knot west wind maximum at 42,000
feet. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...

A weak upper level trough axis along with some difluence in the
upper level pattern will keep higher than normal chances of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow. The
driving factor on where the greatest convective coverage is
expected is the amount of atmospheric moisture in place. The
greatest amount of moisture will remain across areas along the
immediate coast and across the coastal waters. As a result, have
more numerous showers and storms in the forecast for this area.
For the remainder of the forecast area, some weak negative
vorticity advection on the western side of the trough axis and the
growing influence of a ridge axis across the Southern Plains will
allow for some slight drying of the mid and upper levels due to
sinking air aloft. With slightly lower PW values in place, the
forecast calls for only isolated to scattered convective coverage
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages in
the lower 90s.

The upper level ridge over Texas will continue to expand to the
east on Friday and Saturday with diminishing rain chances each
day. This decrease in convective coverage and overall cloud
development is directly tied to the increase in subsidence aloft
which in turn dries out and warms the atmosphere in the mid and
upper levels. As a result, capping increases and convective
potential decreases. Have only isolated convection in the forecast
for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm
as the ridge builds in, and expect to see highs climb into the
middle 90s by Saturday. Heat index readings should rise into the
100 to 105 range as well.

LONG TERM...

The ridge axis should become stretched out in a west-east
alignment along the Gulf Coast by Sunday and remain in this
configuration through the middle of next week. This pattern
supports warmer than normal temperatures and lower than normal
rain chances through the entire long term period. The convection
will be very diurnal each day with thunderstorms only expected
once the convective temperature is reached each afternoon.
Given the higher convective temperatures needed to support
convective activity, only expect to see isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Have 2
00002F22
0 to 30
percent POP in the forecast each day to reflect this risk. Once
the sun sets, any convection should quickly dissipate due to the
loss of instability associated with daytime heating. Temperatures
will be quite warm during the afternoon hours. Highs should rise
into the middle to upper 90s each day. Some drier air from aloft
should mix down each afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall
into the upper 60s. This will allow heat indices to remain in the
100 to 105 range, and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
evening. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to low
confidence. Convective coverage is expected to be lower tomorrow,
so no mention of thunderstorms is in forecast.

MARINE...

High pressure will remain in firm control of the coastal waters
through the holiday weekend. Winds will generally be around 10
knots or less, and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected through
the period. There will continue to some convective activity
developing through Friday as a weak upper level trough slowly
moves east toward the Florida Panhandle. This convection could
produce gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts each day.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
MSY  75  90  76  91 /  40  40  20  20
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  71  90  72  92 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292328
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
628 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered -TSRA noted well North of ktxk and keld were gradually
drifting South. A few computer models hint at this activity
nearing/affecting the said terminals, therefore a VCTS is
warranted for a few hours. By this evening, any lingering
precipitation should be waning. Attention will turn to the
potential for VFR fog particularly at keld and klfk overnight,
with hints of FEW-SCT MVFR-IFR CIGS, more so at klfk. Otherwise,
light East to Southeast winds will prevail. Tomorrow afternoon,
chances for rain should remain South of all terminals, though can
not rule out a few stray storms nearing klfk.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292326
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292256
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292256
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper leve
00004000
l ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292101
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292040
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A weak upper level trough axis along with some difluence in the
upper level pattern will keep higher than normal chances of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow. The
driving factor on where the greatest convective coverage is
expected is the amount of atmospheric moisture in place. The
greatest amount of moisture will remain across areas along the
immediate coast and across the coastal waters. As a result, have
more numerous showers and storms in the forecast for this area.
For the remainder of the forecast area, some weak negative
vorticity advection on the western side of the trough axis and the
growing influence of a ridge axis across the Southern Plains will
allow for some slight drying of the mid and upper levels due to
sinking air aloft. With slightly lower PW values in place, the
forecast calls for only isolated to scattered convective coverage
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages in
the lower 90s.

The upper level ridge over Texas will continue to expand to the
east on Friday and Saturday with diminishing rain chances each
day. This decrease in convective coverage and overall cloud
development is directly tied to the increase in subsidence aloft
which in turn dries out and warms the atmosphere in the mid and
upper levels. As a result, capping increases and convective
potential decreases. Have only isolated convection in the forecast
for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm
as the ridge builds in, and expect to see highs climb into the
middle 90s by Saturday. Heat index readings should rise into the
100 to 105 range as well.

.LONG TERM...

The ridge axis should become stretched out in a west-east
alignment along the Gulf Coast by Sunday and remain in this
configuration through the middle of next week. This pattern
supports warmer than normal temperatures and lower than normal
rain chances through the entire long term period. The convection
will be very diurnal each day with thunderstorms only expected
once the convective temperature is reached each afternoon.
Given the higher convective temperatures needed to support
convective activity, only expect to see isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Have 20 to 30
percent POP in the forecast each day to reflect this risk. Once
the sun sets, any convection should quickly dissipate due to the
loss of instability associated with daytime heating. Temperatures
will be quite warm during the afternoon hours. Highs should rise
into the middle to upper 90s each day. Some drier air from aloft
should mix down each afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall
into the upper 60s. This will allow heat indices to remain in the
100 to 105 range, and below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
evening. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to low
confidence. Convective coverage is expected to be lower tomorrow,
so no mention of thunderstorms is in forecast.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in firm control of the coastal waters
through the holiday weekend. Winds will generally be around 10
knots or less, and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected through
the period. There will continue to some convective activity
developing through Friday as a weak upper level trough slowly
moves east toward the Florida Panhandle. This convection could
produce gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts each day.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
MSY  75  90  76  91 /  40  40  20  20
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  71  90  72  92 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292030
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sfc obs/satellite imagery shows morning low clouds have risen to
at least MVFR levels over the course of the morning...and with
additional heating expect sct/bkn cu to rise to VFR ceilings
before long if they haven`t already. Regional 88ds show a few
spotty showers popping up...these should become a little more
widespread during the afternoon as heating continues and
convective temps are met. Elected to cap precip mention at VC for
now as going tempo could be slight overkill...will amend once we
get a better idea of where the convection will have the best
coverage. Expect precip to end with sunset...could still see a
lingering shower or two mainly the sern terminals overnight but
not enough chance to warrant any mention attm. Forecast time-
height sections indicate a little drier low-levels late tonight
into tomorrow morning so VFR conditions should prevail.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1016 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
A very moist and unstable air mass is over the region today.
Latest upper air sounding from KLCH at 29/12z, has a precipitable
water value over 2 inches. Convective temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, so once that is reached around noon time, convection
should begin to develop. Best chance for shower activity should be
over the southern zones and near the coast...with an old surface
boundary and upper level weakness are located. Made some minor
adjustments to the pops based on current trends, basically lowered
inland for the remainder of the morning, as low clouds and patchy
fog has delayed heating, then increase pops for this afternoon.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  75  92  76 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  90  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sfc obs/satellite imagery shows morning low clouds have risen to
at least MVFR levels over the course of the morning...and with
additional heating expect sct/bkn cu to rise to VFR ceilings
before long if they haven`t already. Regional 88ds show a few
spotty showers popping up...these should become a little more
widespread during the afternoon as heating continues and
convective temps are met. Elected to cap precip mention at VC for
now as going tempo could be slight overkill...will amend once we
get a better idea of where the convection will have the best
coverage. Expect precip to end with sunset...could still see a
lingering shower or two mainly the sern terminals overnight but
not enough chance to warrant any mention attm. Forecast time-
height sections indicate a little drier low-levels late tonight
into tomorrow morning so VFR conditions should prevail.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1016 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
A very moist and unstable air mass is over the region today.
Latest upper air sounding from KLCH at 29/12z, has a precipitable
water value over 2 inches. Convective temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, so once that is reached around noon time, convection
should begin to develop. Best chance for shower activity should be
over the southern zones and near the coast...with an old surface
boundary and upper level weakness are located. Made some minor
adjustments to the pops based on current trends, basically lowered
inland for the remainder of the morning, as low clouds and patchy
fog has delayed heating, then increase pops for this afternoon.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Te
00004000
xas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  75  92  76 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  90  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity will be limited this afternoon with drier air
filtering in from the north but isolated shower may be possible today.
VFR conditions for all terminal sites through the 30/18z. TAFS package
with cloud heights above 5KFT will be common. Surfacre ridge overhead
will provide East to Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph across the region,
becoming light and variable overnight. /21/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/21

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity will be limited this afternoon with drier air
filtering in from the north but isolated shower may be possible today.
VFR conditions for all terminal sites through the 30/18z. TAFS package
with cloud heights above 5KFT will be common. Surfacre ridge overhead
will provide East to Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph across the region,
becoming light and variable overnight. /21/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/21

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291717
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
afternoon and early evening. TEMPO groups at KBTR, KHDC, and KASD
try to time out the storms that drift southward and amendments to
add in TEMPO groups at other terminals may be warranted later
today. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to
low confidence.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture laden atmosphere persists over the central Gulf Coast
with a precipitable water value at 2.26 inches, which is just 0.1
inches away from the daily record. Yep, it`s muggy out there.
With widespread rainfall yesterday and an inversion up to 1000
feet, some patchy fog was able to develop with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 miles at its lowest over Slidell, Baton Rouge,
and McComb observing stations. The atmosphere remains unstable
with MLCAPE around 1150 J/kg, but lapse rates and shear also
remain weak. As was the case yesterday, main concern today will be
efficient rain producers as storm motions will be even slower.
Winds remain light and variable as we are about a month away from
the climatological lowest winds speeds in the atmosphere.

12z balloon info: A routine flight reaching 20.7 miles above the
ground after ascended for 105 minutes bursting over central Lake
Pontchartrain 22 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. The tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. Going into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish. Rain
chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps will
start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  60  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291717
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
afternoon and early evening. TEMPO groups at KBTR, KHDC, and KASD
try to time out the storms that drift southward and amendments to
add in TEMPO groups at other terminals may be warranted later
today. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to
low confidence.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture laden atmosphere persists over the central Gulf Coast
with a precipitable water value at 2.26 inches, which is just 0.1
inches away from the daily record. Yep, it`s muggy out there.
With widespread rainfall yesterday and an inversion up to 1000
feet, some patchy fog was able to develop with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 miles at its lowest over Slidell, Baton Rouge,
and McComb observing stations. The atmosphere remains unstable
with MLCAPE around 1150 J/kg, but lapse rates and shear also
remain weak. As was the case yesterday, main concern today will be
efficient rain producers as storm motions will be even slower.
Winds remain light and variable as we are about a month away from
the climatological lowest winds speeds in the atmosphere.

12z balloon info: A routine flight reaching 20.7 miles above the
ground after ascended for 105 minutes bursting over central Lake
Pontchartrain 22 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. The tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. Going into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish. Rain
chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps will
start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  60  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291654
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given ou
00003E75
r
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Surface ridge building across the region to maintain east to
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts this
afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the
terminal forecast period with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291654
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Surface ridge building across the region to maintain east to
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts this
afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the
terminal forecast period with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291516
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1016 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
A very moist and unstable air mass is over the region today.
Latest upper air sounding from KLCH at 29/12z, has a precipitable
water value over 2 inches. Convective temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, so once that is reached around noon time, convection
should begin to develop. Best chance for shower activity should be
over the southern zones and near the coast...with an old surface
boundary and upper level weakness are located. Made some minor
adjustments to the pops based on current trends, basically lowered
inland for the remainder of the morning, as low clouds and patchy
fog has delayed heating, then increase pops for this afternoon.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  75  92  76 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  90  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291258
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
758 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture laden atmosphere persists over the central Gulf Coast
with a precipitable water value at 2.26 inches, which is just 0.1
inches away from the daily record. Yep, it`s muggy out there.
With widespread rainfall yesterday and an inversion up to 1000
feet, some patchy fog was able to develop with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 miles at its lowest over Slidell, Baton Rouge,
and McComb observing stations. The atmosphere remains unstable
with MLCAPE around 1150 J/kg, but lapse rates and shear also
remain weak. As was the case yesterday, main concern today will be
efficient rain producers as storm motions will be even slower.
Winds remain light and variable as we are about a month away from
the climatological lowest winds speeds in the atmosphere.

12z balloon info: A routine flight reaching 20.7 miles above the
ground after ascended for 105 minutes bursting over central Lake
Pontchartrain 22 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. The tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. Going into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish. Rain
chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps will
start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  70  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  70  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  70  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291258
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
758 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture laden atmosphere persists over the central Gulf Coast
with a precipitable water value at 2.26 inches, which is just 0.1
inches away from the daily record. Yep, it`s muggy out there.
With widespread rainfall yesterday and an inversion up to 1000
feet, some patchy fog was able to develop with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 miles at its lowest over Slidell, Baton Rouge,
and McComb observing stations. The atmosphere remains unstable
with MLCAPE around 1150 J/kg, but lapse rates and shear also
remain weak. As was the case yesterday, main concern today will be
efficient rain producers as storm motions will be even slower.
Winds remain light and variable as we are about a month away from
the climatological lowest winds speeds in the atmosphere.

12z balloon info: A routine flight reaching 20.7 miles above the
ground after ascended for 105 minutes bursting over central Lake
Pontchartrain 22 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. The tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. Going into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish. Rain
chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps will
start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  70  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  70  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  70  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291151
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Surface ridge building across the region to maintain east to
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts this
afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the
terminal forecast period with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Sfc ridging has begun to build Swd into the region this morning...which
will result in a deeper wedge of dry air mixing SSW into the area
by afternoon. This is already evident to our NNE over Cntrl
AR/Wrn TN...where dewpoints have fallen into the mid/upper 60s and
PW/s per the 00Z KLZK raob are near/slightly below 1 inch. Aside
for some stratocu forming this morning mainly S of I-20 over E
TX/N LA...the diurnal cu field should be a bit slower to develop
elsewhere...with ample heating resulting in max temps climbing into
the mid 90s over a good portion of the area this afternoon. Deep E
TX/Ncntrl LA looks to have a little harder time mixing out this
afternoon...which should result in heat indices ranging from
100-103 degrees. The short term progs do continue to suggest
00004000

isolated convection may develop this afternoon over SW MS which
may drift WSW into Cntrl LA...but will leave the SE zones dry for
now as the more favored areas would be just to our S where greater
PW/s will persist. The progs also continue to suggest isolated
convection developing this afternoon over the higher terrain of SE
OK/Wrn AR in response to a weak shortwave currently driving the
convection over SW KS into the OK Panhandle. Strong heating and
limited deep lyr moisture may also aid in development...but very
weak steering currents should limit its progress into Nrn
McCurtain County OK and our Nrn SW AR counties before diminishing
around sunset with the loss of heating.

Drier air should continue to backdoor SW into the region
tonight...with the sfc ridge axis remaining anchored from the
Midwest SW into Ecntrl TX Thursday. This should result in the
coolest temperatures during the next 7 day period...especially
over SE OK/SW AR and the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA where min temps
fall into the upper 60s under a mostly clear sky. Upper ridging
centered over the Four Corners Region remains progged to shift E
into W TX Thursday...with a shortwave expected to traverse ESE
atop the ridge across KS/Nrn OK Thursday afternoon and night. It/s
attendant weak cold front should stall near the KS/OK border E to
near the MO/AR line by Thursday night...focusing extensive areas
of convection near the front during the afternoon/overnight hours.
The progs suggest that this convection may organize into a MCS
Thursday night as it builds ESE into Nrn AR along the
front...before weakening Friday morning as it moves away from the
Swrly LLJ axis/more focuses areas of frontal convergence. This
convective complex should yield increasing elevated convective
debris Thursday night thus holding min temps up a tad across the
area within this drier air...with the potential for associated
mesoscale bndrys to shift SSE into SE OK/Wrn AR late Thursday
night/Friday morning and focus the potential for isolated
convection over the far Nrn zones Friday. Have maintained slight
chance pops for these areas Friday...with the front possibly
reinforced a bit S into Cntrl AR driving additional convective
development over these areas in the dirty NW flow aloft.

The center of the H700-500 ridge should begin to shift E into the
region Friday night/Saturday and persist through much of the
upcoming holiday weekend...with increasing subsidence eliminating
any hopes for wetting rainfall despite the return of srly low
level winds and increasing bndry lyr RH/s. Temps should also inch
closer to the upper 90s as well...before the ridge begins to
gradually flatten late Sunday into early next week. The
GFS/Canadian both depict the weakening ridge and remain consistent
with earlier runs...with the ECMWF maintaining the ridge and pop
free forecast through much of next week. Have maintained slight
chance pops Sunday night and Monday for extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
per the GFS/Canadian blend...which both depict another shortwave
which may break down the ridge enough to allow for at least
isolated convection over these areas. Not quite buying the more
bullish GFS for more widespread convection Sunday night/Monday
over the Red River Valley...but mesoscale bndrys from this
potential convection could certainly focus future convection
downstream into at least the nrn portions of the region early next
week.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291147
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  72 /  30  10  10  10
LCH  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
LFT  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  94  75  93  76 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291147
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  72 /  30  10  10  10
LCH  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
LFT  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  94  75  93  76 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290954
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
454 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sfc ridging has begun to build Swd into the region this morning...which
will result in a deeper wedge of dry air mixing SSW into the area
by afternoon. This is already evident to our NNE over Cntrl
AR/Wrn TN...where dewpoints have fallen into the mid/upper 60s and
PW/s per the 00Z KLZK raob are near/slightly below 1 inch. Aside
for some stratocu forming this morning mainly S of I-20 over E
TX/N LA...the diurnal cu field should be a bit slower to develop
elsewhere...with ample heating resulting in max temps climbing into
the mid 90s over a good portion of the area this afternoon. Deep E
TX/Ncntrl LA looks to have a little harder time mixing out this
afternoon...which should result in heat indices ranging from
100-103 degrees. The short term progs do continue to suggest
isolated convection may develop this afternoon over SW MS which
may drift WSW into Cntrl LA...but will leave the SE zones dry for
now as the more favored areas would be just to our S where greater
PW/s will persist. The progs also continue to suggest isolated
convection developing this afternoon over the higher terrain of SE
OK/Wrn AR in response to a weak shortwave currently driving the
convection over SW KS into the OK Panhandle. Strong heating and
limited deep lyr moisture may also aid in development...but very
weak steering currents should limit its progress into Nrn
McCurtain County OK and our Nrn SW AR counties before diminishing
around sunset with the loss of heating.

Drier air should continue to backdoor SW into the region
tonight...with the sfc ridge axis remaining anchored from the
Midwest SW into Ecntrl TX Thursday. This should result in the
coolest temperatures during the next 7 day period...especially
over SE OK/SW AR and the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA where min temps
fall into the upper 60s under a mostly clear sky. Upper ridging
centered over the Four Corners Region remains progged to shift E
into W TX Thursday...with a shortwave expected to traverse ESE
atop the ridge across KS/Nrn OK Thursday afternoon and night. It/s
attendant weak cold front should stall near the KS/OK border E to
near the MO/AR line by Thursday night...focusing extensive areas
of convection near the front during the afternoon/overnight hours.
The progs suggest that this convection may organize into a MCS
Thursday night as it builds ESE into Nrn AR along the
front...before weakening Friday morning as it moves away from the
Swrly LLJ axis/more focuses areas of frontal convergence. This
convective complex should yield increasing elevated convective
debris Thursday night thus holding min temps up a tad across the
area within this drier air...with the potential for associated
mesoscale bndrys to shift SSE into SE OK/Wrn AR late Thursday
night/Friday morning and focus the potential for isolated
convection over the far Nrn zones Friday. Have maintained slight
chance pops for these areas Friday...with the front possibly
reinforced a bit S into Cntrl AR driving additional convective
development over these areas in the dirty NW flow aloft.

The center of the H700-500 ridge should begin to shift E into the
region Friday night/Saturday and persist through much of the
upcoming holiday weekend...with increasing subsidence eliminating
any hopes for wetting rainfall despite the return of srly low
level winds and increasing bndry lyr RH/s. Temps should also inch
closer to the upper 90s as well...before the ridge begins to
gradually flatten late Sunday into early next week. The
GFS/Canadian both depict the weakening ridge and remain consistent
with earlier runs...with the ECMWF maintaining the ridge and pop
free forecast through much of next week. Have maintained slight
chance pops Sunday night and Monday for extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
per the GFS/Canadian blend...which both depict another shortwave
which may break down the ridge enough to allow for at least
isolated convection over these areas. Not quite buying the more
bullish GFS for more widespread convection Sunday night/Monday
over the Red River Valley...but mesoscale bndrys from this
potential convection could certainly focus future convection
downstream into at least the nrn portions of the region early next
week.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /   5   5   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10   5  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /   5   5   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   5
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290954
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
454 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sfc ridging has begun to build Swd into the region this morning...which
will result in a deeper wedge of dry air mixing SSW into the area
by afternoon. This is already evident to our NNE over Cntrl
AR/Wrn TN...where dewpoints have fallen into the mid/upper 60s and
PW/s per the 00Z KLZK raob are near/slightly below 1 inch. Aside
for some stratocu forming this morning mainly S of I-20 over E
TX/N LA...the diurnal cu field should be a bit slower to develop
elsewhere...with ample heating resulting in max temps climbing into
the mid 90s over a good portion of the area this afternoon. Deep E
TX/Ncntrl LA looks to have a little harder time mixing out this
afternoon...which should result in heat indices ranging from
100-103 degrees. The short term progs do continue to suggest
isolated convection may develop this afternoon over SW MS which
may drift WSW into Cntrl LA...but will leave the SE zones dry for
now as the more favored areas would be just to our S where greater
PW/s will persist. The progs also continue to suggest isolated
convection developing this afternoon over the higher terrain of SE
OK/Wrn AR in response to a weak shortwave currently driving the
convection over SW KS into the OK Panhandle. Strong heating and
limited deep lyr moisture may also aid in development...but very
weak steering currents should limit its progress into Nrn
McCurtain County OK and our Nrn SW AR counties before diminishing
around sunset with the loss of heating.

Drier air should continue to backdoor SW into the region
tonight...with the sfc ridge axis remaining anchored from the
Midwest SW into Ecntrl TX Thursday. This should result in the
coolest temperatures during the next 7 day period...especially
over SE OK/SW AR and the Ern sections of Ncntrl LA where min temps
fall into the upper 60s under a mostly clear sky. Upper ridging
centered over the Four Corners Region remains progged to shift E
into W TX Thursday...with a shortwave expected to traverse ESE
atop the ridge across KS/Nrn OK Thursday afternoon and night. It/s
attendant weak cold front should stall near the KS/OK border E to
near the MO/AR line by Thursday night...focusing extensive areas
of convection near the front during the afternoon/overnight hours.
The progs suggest that this convection may organize into a MCS
Thursday night as it builds ESE into Nrn AR along the
front...before weakening Friday morning as it moves away from the
Swrly LLJ axis/more focuses areas of frontal convergence. This
convective complex should yield increasing elevated convective
debris Thursday night thus holding min temps up a tad across the
area within this drier air...with the potential for associated
mesoscale bndrys to shift SSE into SE OK/Wrn AR late Thursday
night/Friday morning and focus the potential for isolated
convection over the far Nrn zones Friday. Have maintained slight
chance pops for these areas Friday...with the front possibly
reinforced a bit S into Cntrl AR driving additional convective
development over these areas in the dirty NW flow aloft.

The center of the H700-500 ridge should begin to shift E int
00004000
o the
region Friday night/Saturday and persist through much of the
upcoming holiday weekend...with increasing subsidence eliminating
any hopes for wetting rainfall despite the return of srly low
level winds and increasing bndry lyr RH/s. Temps should also inch
closer to the upper 90s as well...before the ridge begins to
gradually flatten late Sunday into early next week. The
GFS/Canadian both depict the weakening ridge and remain consistent
with earlier runs...with the ECMWF maintaining the ridge and pop
free forecast through much of next week. Have maintained slight
chance pops Sunday night and Monday for extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
per the GFS/Canadian blend...which both depict another shortwave
which may break down the ridge enough to allow for at least
isolated convection over these areas. Not quite buying the more
bullish GFS for more widespread convection Sunday night/Monday
over the Red River Valley...but mesoscale bndrys from this
potential convection could certainly focus future convection
downstream into at least the nrn portions of the region early next
week.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /   5   5   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10   5  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /   5   5   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   5
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290919
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  72 /  30  10  10  10
LCH  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
LFT  91  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  94  75  93  76 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

K. Kuyper

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. the tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. GOing into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish.
Rain chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps
will start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  70  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  70  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  70  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290504
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1204 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Changes to overnight pop/wx grid alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar still shows a few lingering showers over the southern tier
primarily. There is technically a tiny element of sprinkles
approaching Bossier City that has eroded down to this. So we have
settled on coverage exclusively over the south until dawn. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
Isolated -SHRA noted well East of klfk, is finally diminishing/moving
South and out of the CWA. Attention will turn to the potential for
overnight VFR-MVFR VIS due to fog particularly at kmlu, ktyr,
kggg, keld and klfk, as well as MVFR CIGS more so at klfk.
Otherwise, light Northeast winds will veer to the Southeast
throughout the TAF cycle. Computer models hint at a slim chance
for -SHRA/-TSRA to affect klfk tomorrow afternoon, but will omit a
mention at this time as confidence is not high enough for an
insertion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
We are content this mid evening with pops/wx as is until 06Z or 1
AM. The current few showers on radar may be our last batch which
are riding our point click pop line now. We will allow current
forecast to finish off the evening hours and will update at
midnight to remove wording or extend. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be very few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  69  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  70  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  71  93  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  96  72  94 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  96  71  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290450
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated -SHRA noted well East of klfk, is finally diminishing/moving
South and out of the CWA. Attention will turn to the potential for
overnight VFR-MVFR VIS due to fog particularly at kmlu, ktyr,
kggg, keld and klfk, as well as MVFR CIGS more so at klfk.
Otherwise, light Northeast winds will veer to the Southeast
throughout the TAF cycle. Computer models hint at a slim chance
for -SHRA/-TSRA to affect klfk tomorrow afternoon, but will omit a
mention at this time as confidence is not high enough for an
insertion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
We are content this mid evening with pops/wx as is until 06Z or 1
AM. The current few showers on radar may be our last batch which
are riding our point click pop line now. We will allow current
forecast to finish off the evening hours and will update at
midnight to remove wording or extend. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be very few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  72  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  93  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290450
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated -SHRA noted well East of klfk, is finally diminishing/moving
South and out of the CWA. Attention will turn to the potential for
overnight VFR-MVFR VIS due to fog particularly at kmlu, ktyr,
kggg, keld and klfk, as well as MVFR CIGS more so at klfk.
Otherwise, light Northeast winds will veer to the Southeast
throughout the TAF cycle. Computer models hint at a slim chance
for -SHRA/-TSRA to affect klfk tomorrow afternoon, but will omit a
mention at this time as confidence is not high enough for an
insertion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
We are content this mid evening with pops/wx as is until 06Z or 1
AM. The current few showers on radar may be our last batch which
are riding our point click pop line now. We will allow current
forecast to finish off the evening hours and will update at
midnight to remove wording or extend. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be very few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  72  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  93  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290443
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...A few showers and storms will be around tonight with
scattered thunderstorms possible by mid day tomorrow. Although
mostly vfr
00004000
 conditions are expected, periods of lower vis and
ceilings will be possible in and around convection. Light winds
tonight will become NE at under 10kts tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Afternoon SHRA/TSRA over land produced a large outflow boundary
that moved southwest to the coastal waters. This ignited numerous
TSRA once hitting the water, with ongoing special marine warnings
for high winds. Best chance of SHRA/TSRA will continue over SE
TX and adjacent coastal waters off the LA/SE TX coasts this
evening. After midnight into the remainder of Wed morning, keeping
the chances higher, around 50-60% from I-10 southward into the
coastal waters as the weak low pressure trof drifts further
southward towards the coastal parishes and counties.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...Light rain, showers, and thunderstorms will be around
the area through the period. While mostly VFR conditions are
expected, occasionally lowers vis and ceilings will occur precip.
Gusty winds will also be possible, however winds will generally be
10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar looked more active across the area this afternoon
as low pressure aloft finally has gotten a foothold.
Temperatures actually looked good where the rain developed
early this afternoon. However...where the rain did not fall...
it was an ugly picture as highs zoomed up into the mid 90s across
Lake Charles and Beaumont areas. Very uncomfortable environment
if your in these two areas. Heat indices were still around 103 to
105 across southwest Louisiana...however...Beaumont hit 108 around
3 pm. Relief is on the way though as rains are coming soon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Where it does rain...temperatures will
cool down into the mid 70s fairly quickly. Rain chances will stick
around through the evening as the airmass remains unstable and
development continues across our northern areas and move south
with time.

An upper level trough of low pressure will hang around another day
with the best chance of rain remaining across the southern half of
the area. The southern end of the upper low will lift northeast
allow for high pressure to filter back in beginning Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Drier conditions will settle back in
during the latter half of the week right on into early next week.
Unfortunately...summer baking temperatures will remain with us
after Wednesday. With my AC still not working well at home...looks
like I will walk into a hot house again this afternoon. So...I`m
living the heat nightmare as many of us in this area can attest
to as the A/C units begin misfiring under this heat.

All I have to say is...we better get some relief from this heat
this afternoon into tomorrow for southwest Louisiana and lower
southeast Texas or we sure are going to be disappointed. We have a
lot of folks with AC`s out...I`m hoping mother nature can give
some relief to us suffering.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain to the west of the Gulf of Mexico
allowing weak low pressure to temporarily hold through
wednesday. This weather setup will allow for an increase in
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. High pressure
will fill back in starting Thursday and continue through the
weekend with a return to normal summertime conditions over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will be high in and around
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  71  94 /  30  30  10  20
LCH  74  90  74  93 /  60  50  20  20
LFT  74  90  73  93 /  50  50  20  20
BPT  74  91  74  93 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290443
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...A few showers and storms will be around tonight with
scattered thunderstorms possible by mid day tomorrow. Although
mostly vfr conditions are expected, periods of lower vis and
ceilings will be possible in and around convection. Light winds
tonight will become NE at under 10kts tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Afternoon SHRA/TSRA over land produced a large outflow boundary
that moved southwest to the coastal waters. This ignited numerous
TSRA once hitting the water, with ongoing special marine warnings
for high winds. Best chance of SHRA/TSRA will continue over SE
TX and adjacent coastal waters off the LA/SE TX coasts this
evening. After midnight into the remainder of Wed morning, keeping
the chances higher, around 50-60% from I-10 southward into the
coastal waters as the weak low pressure trof drifts further
southward towards the coastal parishes and counties.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...Light rain, showers, and thunderstorms will be around
the area through the period. While mostly VFR conditions are
expected, occasionally lowers vis and ceilings will occur precip.
Gusty winds will also be possible, however winds will generally be
10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar looked more active across the area this afternoon
as low pressure aloft finally has gotten a foothold.
Temperatures actually looked good where the rain developed
early this afternoon. However...where the rain did not fall...
it was an ugly picture as highs zoomed up into the mid 90s across
Lake Charles and Beaumont areas. Very uncomfortable environment
if your in these two areas. Heat indices were still around 103 to
105 across southwest Louisiana...however...Beaumont hit 108 around
3 pm. Relief is on the way though as rains are coming soon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Where it does rain...temperatures will
cool down into the mid 70s fairly quickly. Rain chances will stick
around through the evening as the airmass remains unstable and
development continues across our northern areas and move south
with time.

An upper level trough of low pressure will hang around another day
with the best chance of rain remaining across the southern half of
the area. The southern end of the upper low will lift northeast
allow for high pressure to filter back in beginning Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Drier conditions will settle back in
during the latter half of the week right on into early next week.
Unfortunately...summer baking temperatures will remain with us
after Wednesday. With my AC still not working well at home...looks
like I will walk into a hot house again this afternoon. So...I`m
living the heat nightmare as many of us in this area can attest
to as the A/C units begin misfiring under this heat.

All I have to say is...we better get some relief from this heat
this afternoon into tomorrow for southwest Louisiana and lower
southeast Texas or we sure are going to be disappointed. We have a
lot of folks with AC`s out...I`m hoping mother nature can give
some relief to us suffering.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain to the west of the Gulf of Mexico
allowing weak low pressure to temporarily hold through
wednesday. This weather setup will allow for an increase in
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. High pressure
will fill back in starting Thursday and continue through the
weekend with a return to normal summertime conditions over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will be high in and around
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  71  94 /  30  30  10  20
LCH  74  90  74  93 /  60  50  20  20
LFT  74  90  73  93 /  50  50  20  20
BPT  74  91  74  93 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290429
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR category conditions will generally prevail at the terminals
overnight and through the mid morning hours Wednesday. Rain
chances will be on the increase again by late morning and during
the afternoon with the best chances for convection across the
southern two thirds of the forecast area. The convection will
again gradually diminish Wednesday evening. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  70  93 /  20  30  30  10
BTR  73  90  72  93 /  30  50  40  20
ASD  73  90  72  92 /  30  50  50  30
MSY  77  88  75  91 /  30  60  50  40
GPT  73  88  73  90 /  40  60  50  40
PQL  72  88  71  92 /  40  60  60  40

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290305
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE CONTENT THIS MID EVENING WITH POPS/WX AS IS UNTIL 06Z
OR 1 AM. THE CURRENT FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR MAY BE OUR LAST BATCH
WHICH ARE RIDING OUR POINT CLICK POP LINE NOW. WE WILL ALLOW
CURRENT FORECAST TO FINISH OFF THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL UPDATE
AT MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE WORDING OR EXTEND. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
To expand and tailor pops for the evening a bit farther Northward.

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends have a persistent slot of development and movement that
was not covered with a pop for a few parishes. These trends will
continue across the I-20 corridor between Arcadia and Monroe and
points to the Southwest. It is still likely that much of this
activity will come to end with the soon drastic decline in
heating. We will keep an eye to the Northeast as a large outflow
is headed in our direction. No other changes needed at this time.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two have developed
mainly along and south of Interstate-20 early this evening. As
such, a VCTS mention will continue for kmlu and klfk, though have
inserted a VCSH at kshv given the proximity of shower activity
East of the said terminal. Shortly after sunset, this
precipitation activity should diminish and VFR-MVFR fog is
possible near sunrise tomorrow particularly at kmlu, ktyr, kggg,
klfk and keld. Hints of scattered MVFR cigs more so at kshv,
kmlu and kflk can not be ruled out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be veyr few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  72  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  93  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/19

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290117
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
817 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Launch was delayed about 25 minutes due to lightning in the area.
Flight somewhat shorter than usual, terminating over Lake
Pontchartrain near Goose Point south of Lacombe. Flight terminated
near 82,000 feet or 15.5 miles above the surface.

Convection was in the vicinity at launch, reflected by the 2.23
inch precipitable water value, which was pretty close to what was
observed on the morning flight. There was a rain cooled layer from
the surface to about 2000 feet. Lapse rates above that layer were
generally between 5 and 6C/km. Freezing level was at 15,800 feet
and the -20C level was rather high at 27,100 feet.

Other than a 16 knot wind at theof the rain cooled surface
layer, winds did not exceed 15 knots until 250 mb. The only wind
exceeding 20 knots below 100 mb was 23 knots at 43,000 feet. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...

An increased risk of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to persist through tomorrow. This increase in convection will
continue to be driven by the interaction between deep layer
tropical moisture, and a difluent flow pattern and troughing in
the upper levels. Have kept in scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm wording for tonight and tomorrow, and also have
temperatures remaining in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
tomorrow. Storm motion will remain limited, so the primary concern
from any stronger thunderstorms that develop will be locally heavy
rainfall that could lead to street flooding and frequent lightning
strikes.

Conditions will begin to transition on Thursday as the upper level
trough axis and strongest omega values begin to shift to the east.
However, there will continue to be enough forcing and moisture in
place to keep some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Rain chances look to be highest along and south of the
I-10 corridor where vorticity is maximized and moisture is
deepest. The trough will continue to push to the east Thursday
night into early Friday, and a strong upper level ridge parked
over Texas will begin to expand eastward across Louisiana. With
increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence developing
over the region, rain chances will begin to diminish. The
subsidence aloft will also dry out and warm the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere resulting in increased capping aloft and
convective inhibition. Thus, by Friday POP values fall to 20 to
30 percent which is lower than the seasonal norms closer to 40 to
50 percent. Temperatures will also begin to warm due to the
combination of sinking air and less cloud cover. Highs should
climb back into the middle 90s and heat index readings should push
above 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...

Heading into the holiday weekend, strong mid and upper level
ridging will be firmly in control of the region. With strong
subsidence in place aloft, a fairly significant cap is expected
aloft. This cap will limit most convective activity Saturday
through Monday with only a few storms expected to pop up during
peak heating hours each day. Coverage should be highest on
Saturday when the region is on the eastern periphery of the upper
level ridge axis. By Independence Day, the ridge should be firmly
entrenched over the Gulf South. Monday and Tuesday of next week
will struggle to see rain chances reach 20 percent during the
afternoon hours. The lack of cloud development and strong
subsidence will continue to allow for warming temperatures. Highs
should climb into the middle to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday.
Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall into the middle to
upper 60s, so heat index values should remain in the 100 to 105
range. Conditions 
00004000
are expected to be hot, but heat advisory
conditions are not forecast at this time.

AVIATION...

Using TEMPO groups for best timing of scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will develop and slowly move south through this
evening. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions should prevail
the remainder of the afternoon and evening. May see a bit of
patchy fog try to form around KMCB tomorrow morning, but should be
short- lived.

MARINE...

Convection will continue to be the primary concern for the coastal
waters through Friday as a trough of low pressure in the upper
levels allows for scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day.
These thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and
waterspouts. Outside of the convective threat, no significant
impacts to the boating community are expected. Winds will
generally range from 10 knots or less and seas from 2 feet or less
through the period.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  70  93 /  50  30  30  10
BTR  73  90  72  93 /  50  50  40  20
ASD  73  90  72  92 /  60  50  50  30
MSY  77  88  75  91 /  60  60  50  40
GPT  73  88  73  90 /  50  60  50  40
PQL  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  60  40

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290020
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
720 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
To expand and tailor pops for the evening a bit farther Northward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar trends have a persistent slot of development and movement that
was not covered with a pop for a few parishes. These trends will
continue across the I-20 corridor between Arcadia and Monroe and
points to the Southwest. It is still likely that much of this
activity will come to end with the soon drastic decline in
heating. We will keep an eye to the Northeast as a large outflow
is headed in our direction. No other changes needed at this time.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two have developed
mainly along and south of Interstate-20 early this evening. As
such, a VCTS mention will continue for kmlu and klfk, though have
inserted a VCSH at kshv given the proximity of shower activity
East of the said terminal. Shortly after sunset, this
precipitation activity should diminish and VFR-MVFR fog is
possible near sunrise tomorrow particularly at kmlu, ktyr, kggg,
klfk and keld. Hints of scattered MVFR cigs more so at kshv,
kmlu and kflk can not be ruled out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be veyr few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  72  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  93  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290015
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
715 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Afternoon SHRA/TSRA over land produced a large outflow boundary
that moved southwest to the coastal waters. This ignited numerous
TSRA once hitting the water, with ongoing special marine warnings
for high winds. Best chance of SHRA/TSRA will continue over SE
TX and adjacent coastal waters off the LA/SE TX coasts this
evening. After midnight into the remainder of Wed morning, keeping
the chances higher, around 50-60% from I-10 southward into the
coastal waters as the weak low pressure trof drifts further
southward towards the coastal parishes and counties.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...Light rain, showers, and thunderstorms will be around
the area through the period. While mostly VFR conditions are
expected, occasionally lowers vis and ceilings will occur precip.
Gusty winds will also be possible, however winds will generally be
10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar looked more active across the area this afternoon
as low pressure aloft finally has gotten a foothold.
Temperatures actually looked good where the rain developed
early this afternoon. However...where the rain did not fall...
it was an ugly picture as highs zoomed up into the mid 90s across
Lake Charles and Beaumont areas. Very uncomfortable environment
if your in these two areas. Heat indices were still around 103 to
105 across southwest Louisiana...however...Beaumont hit 108 around
3 pm. Relief is on the way though as rains are coming soon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Where it does rain...temperatures will
cool down into the mid 70s fairly quickly. Rain chances will stick
around through the evening as the airmass remains unstable and
development continues across our northern areas and move south
with time.

An upper level trough of low pressure will hang around another day
with the best chance of rain remaining across the southern half of
the area. The southern end of the upper low will lift northeast
allow for high pressure to filter back in beginning Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Drier conditions will settle back in
during the latter half of the week right on into early next week.
Unfortunately...summer baking temperatures will remain with us
after Wednesday. With my AC still not working well at home...looks
like I will walk into a hot house again this afternoon. So...I`m
living the heat nightmare as many of us in this area can attest
to as the A/C units begin misfiring under this heat.

All I have to say is...we better get some relief from this heat
this afternoon into tomorrow for southwest Louisiana and lower
southeast Texas or we sure are going to be disappointed. We have a
lot of folks with AC`s out...I`m hoping mother nature can give
some relief to us suffering.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain to the west of the Gulf of Mexico
allowing weak low pressure to temporarily hold through
wednesday. This weather setup will allow for an increase in
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. High pressure
will fill back in starting Thursday and continue through the
weekend with a return to normal summertime conditions over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will be high in and around
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  71  94 /  30  30  10  20
LCH  74  90  74  93 /  60  50  20  20
LFT  74  90  73  93 /  50  50  20  20
BPT  74  91  74  93 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282336
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
636 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...Light rain, showers, and thunderstorms will be around
the area through the period. While mostly VFR conditions are
expected, occasionally lowers vis and ceilings will occur precip.
Gusty winds will also be possible, however winds will generally be
10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar looked more active across the area this afternoon
as low pressure aloft finally has gotten a foothold.
Temperatures actually looked good where the rain developed
early this afternoon. However...where the rain did not fall...
it was an ugly picture as highs zoomed up into the mid 90s across
Lake Charles and Beaumont areas. Very uncomfortable environment
if your in these two areas. Heat indices were still around 103 to
105 across southwest Louisiana...however...Beaumont hit 108 around
3 pm. Relief is on the way though as rains are coming soon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Where it does rain...temperatures will
cool down into the mid 70s fairly quickly. Rain chances will stick
around through the evening as the airmass remains unstable and
development continues across our northern areas and move south
with time.

An upper level trough of low pressure will hang around another day
with the best chance of rain remaining across the southern half of
the area. The southern end of the upper low will lift northeast
allow for high pressure to filter back in beginning Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Drier conditions will settle back in
during the latter half of the week right on into early next week.
Unfortunately...summer baking temperatures will remain with us
after Wednesday. With my AC still not working well at home...looks
like I will walk into a hot house again this afternoon. So...I`m
living the heat nightmare as many of us in this area can attest
to as the A/C units begin misfiring under this heat.

All I have to say is...we better get some relief from this heat
this afternoon into tomorrow for southwest Louisiana and lower
southeast Texas or we sure are going to be disappointed. We have a
lot of folks with AC`s out...I`m hoping mother nature can give
some relief to us suffering.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain to the west of the Gulf of Mexico
allowing weak low pressure to temporarily hold through
wednesday. This weather setup will allow for an increase in
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. High pressure
will fill back in starting Thursday and continue through the
weekend with a return to normal summertime conditions over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will be high in and around
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  71  94 /  30  30  10  20
LCH  74  90  74  93 /  60  50  20  20
LFT  74  90  73  93 /  50  50  20  20
BPT  74  91  74  93 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282311
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two have developed
mainly along and south of Interstate-20 early this evening. As
such, a VCTS mention will continue for kmlu and klfk, though have
inserted a VCSH at kshv given the proximity of shower activity
East of the said terminal. Shortly after sunset, this
precipitation activity should diminish and VFR-MVFR fog is
possible near sunrise tomorrow particularly at kmlu, ktyr, kggg,
klfk and keld. Hints of scattered MVFR cigs more so at kshv,
kmlu and kflk can not be ruled out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be veyr few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  72  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  93  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282105
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar looked more active across the area this afternoon
as low pressure aloft finally has gotten a foothold.
Temperatures actually looked good where the rain developed
early this afternoon. However...where the rain did not fall...
it was an ugly picture as highs zoomed up into the mid 90s across
Lake Charles and Beaumont areas. Very uncomfortable environment
if your in these two areas. Heat indices were still around 103 to
105 across southwest Louisiana...however...Beaumont hit 108 around
3 pm. Relief is on the way though as rains are coming soon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Where it does rain...temperatures will
cool down into the mid 70s fairly quickly. Rain chances will stick
around through the evening as the airmass remains unstable and
development continues across our northern areas and move south
with time.

An upper level trough of low pressure will hang around another day
with the best chance of rain remaining across the southern half of
the area. The southern end of the upper low will lift northeast
allow for high pressure to filter back in beginning Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Drier conditions will settle back in
during the latter half of the week right on into early next week.
Unfortunately...summer baking temperatures will remain with us
after Wednesday. With my AC still not working well at home...looks
like I will walk 
00005BC2
into a hot house again this afternoon. So...I`m
living the heat nightmare as many of us in this area can attest
to as the A/C units begin misfiring under this heat.

All I have to say is...we better get some relief from this heat
this afternoon into tomorrow for southwest Louisiana and lower
southeast Texas or we sure are going to be disappointed. We have a
lot of folks with AC`s out...I`m hoping mother nature can give
some relief to us suffering.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain to the west of the Gulf of Mexico
allowing weak low pressure to temporarily hold through
wednesday. This weather setup will allow for an increase in
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. High pressure
will fill back in starting Thursday and continue through the
weekend with a return to normal summertime conditions over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will be high in and around
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  70  94 /  30  20  10  20
LCH  74  90  74  93 /  50  50  20  20
LFT  74  90  73  93 /  50  50  20  20
BPT  74  91  74  94 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 282100
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery well depicts the areas of convection this
afternoon across deep East Texas and central Louisiana where a
surface frontal boundary continues to advance southward. Farther
north, a moderate CU field remains over much of the I-20 corridor
while drier air slowly filters southward across southern Arkansas
and the I-30 corridor of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Northeasterly flow will prevail overnight in the wake of the front
and skies will gradually clear this evening with isolated showers
and thunderstorms diminishing after sunset across our extreme
southern and eastern zones.

This drier and more stable air mass will stick around through mid
week with a second surface front helping to reinforce the welcome
drop in summertime humidity. High temperatures will continue to
run in the low to mid 90s despite the front while rain chances
will be veyr few and far between. The nice treat will be cooler,
more pleasant mornings with lows in the 60s and lower 70s through
Friday morning.

Hotter and more humid conditions will return over the Independence
Day weekend with a more typical summertime weather pattern setting
up once again. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will come back into play, but don`t expect much
relief from the heat as most areas will remain dry through the
remainder of the extended period to include the 4th of July. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 28/18Z terminal forecast, MVFR flight categories will
linger into the afternoon for many of the sites along and
South of Interstate 20 in wake of a frontal boundary moving
out of the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in wake of the boundary as well. Lower visibility restrictions
will accompany the convection along with gusty winds from
outflow boundaries from dissipating storms. Early Wednesday
morning there may be a few locations with visibility restrictions
in mist/BRwith brief mvfr due light winds and cooler morning
temperatures. High pressure building into the forecast area will
provide north to northeast winds 5-10 knots. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  72  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  93  70  92 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  71  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  70  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282031 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
331 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...

An increased risk of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to persist through tomorrow. This increase in convection will
continue to be driven by the interaction between deep layer
tropical moisture, and a difluent flow pattern and troughing in
the upper levels. Have kept in scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm wording for tonight and tomorrow, and also have
temperatures remaining in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
tomorrow. Storm motion will remain limited, so the primary concern
from any stronger thunderstorms that develop will be locally heavy
rainfall that could lead to street flooding and frequent lightning
strikes.

Conditions will begin to transition on Thursday as the upper level
trough axis and strongest omega values begin to shift to the east.
However, there will continue to be enough forcing and moisture in
place to keep some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Rain chances look to be highest along and south of the
I-10 corridor where vorticity is maximized and moisture is
deepest. The trough will continue to push to the east Thursday
night into early Friday, and a strong upper level ridge parked
over Texas will begin to expand eastward across Louisiana. With
increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence developing
over the region, rain chances will begin to diminish. The
subsidence aloft will also dry out and warm the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere resulting in increased capping aloft and
convective inhibition. Thus, by Friday POP values fall to 20 to
30 percent which is lower than the seasonal norms closer to 40 to
50 percent. Temperatures will also begin to warm due to the
combination of sinking air and less cloud cover. Highs should
climb back into the middle 90s and heat index readings should push
above 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...

Heading into the holiday weekend, strong mid and upper level
ridging will be firmly in control of the region. With strong
subsidence in place aloft, a fairly significant cap is expected
aloft. This cap will limit most convective activity Saturday
through Monday with only a few storms expected to pop up during
peak heating hours each day. Coverage should be highest on
Saturday when the region is on the eastern periphery of the upper
level ridge axis. By Independence Day, the ridge should be firmly
entrenched over the Gulf South. Monday and Tuesday of next week
will struggle to see rain chances reach 20 percent during the
afternoon hours. The lack of cloud development and strong
subsidence will continue to allow for warming temperatures. Highs
should climb into the middle to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday.
Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall into the middle to
upper 60s, so heat index values should remain in the 100 to 105
range. Conditions are expected to be hot, but heat advisory
conditions are not forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

Using TEMPO groups for best timing of scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will develop and slowly move south through this
evening. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions should prevail
the remainder of the afternoon and evening. May see a bit of
patchy fog try to form around KMCB tomorrow morning, but should be
short- lived.

&&

.MARINE...

Convection will continue to be the primary concern for the coastal
waters through Friday as a trough of low pressure in the upper
levels allows for scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day.
These thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and
waterspouts. Outside of the convective threat, no significant
impacts to the boating community are expected. Winds will
generally range from 10 knots or less and seas from 2 feet or less
through the period.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  70  93 /  50  30  30  10
BTR  73  90  72  93 /  50  50  40  20
ASD  73  90  72  92 /  60  50  50  30
MSY  77  88  75  91 /  60  60  50  40
GPT  73  88  73  90 /  50  60  50  40
PQL  72  88  71  92 /  60  60  60  40

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282030
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...

An increased risk of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to persist through tomorrow. This increase in convection will
continue to be driven by the interaction between deep layer
tropical moisture, and a difluent flow pattern and troughing in
the upper levels. Have kept in scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm wording for tonight and tomorrow, and also have
temperatures remaining in the upper 80s and lower 90s for
tomorrow. Storm motion will remain limited, so the primary concern
from any stronger thunderstorms that develop will be locally heavy
rainfall that could lead to street flooding and frequent lightning
strikes.

Conditions will begin to transition on Thursday as the upper level
trough axis and strongest omega values begin to shift to the east.
However, there will continue to be enough forcing and moisture in
place to keep some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Rain chances look to be highest along and south of the
I-10 corridor where vorticity is maximized and moisture is
deepest. The trough will continue to push to the east Thursday
night into early Friday, and a strong upper level ridge parked
over Texas will begin to expand eastward across Louisiana. With
increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence developing
over the region, rain chances will begin to diminish. The
subsidence aloft will also dry out and warm the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere resulting in increased capping aloft and
convective inhibition. Thus, by Friday POP values fall to 20 to
30 percent which is lower than the seasonal norms closer to 40 to
50 percent. Temperatures will also begin to warm due to the
combination of sinking air and less cloud cover. Highs should
climb back into the middle 90s and heat index readings should push
above 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...

Heading into the holiday weekend, strong mid and upper level
ridging will be firmly in control of the region. With strong
subsidence in place aloft, a fairly significant cap is expected
aloft. This cap will limit most convective activity Saturday
through Monday with only a few storms expected to pop up during
peak heating hours each day. Coverage should be highest on
Saturday when the region is on the eastern periphery of the upper
level ridge axis. By Independence Day, the ridge should be firmly
entrenched over the Gulf South. Monday and Tuesday of next week
will struggle to see rain chances reach 20 percent during the
afternoon hours. The lack of cloud development and strong
subsidence will continue to allow for warming temperatures. Highs
should climb into the middle to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday.
Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall into the middle to
upper 60s, so heat index values should remain in the 100 to 105
range. Conditions are expected to be hot, but heat advisory
conditions are not forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

Using TEMPO groups for best timing of scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will develop and slowly move south through this
evening. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions should prevail
the remainder of the afternoon and evening. May see a bit of
patchy fog try to form around KMCB tomorrow morning, but should be
short- lived.

&&

.MARINE...

Convection will continue to be the primary concern for the coastal
waters through Friday as a trough of low pressure in the upper
levels allows for scattered to numerous thunderstorms each day.
These thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and
waterspouts. Outside of the convective threat, no significant
impacts to the boating community are expected. Winds will
generally range from 10 knots or less and seas from 2 feet or less
through the period.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  72  91  70 /  70  50  30  30
BTR  91  73  90  72 /  80  50  50  40
ASD  91  73  90  72 /  60  60  50  50
MSY  91  77  88  75 /  60  60  60  50
GPT  89  73  88  73 /  60  50  60  50
PQL  90  72  88  71 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 281742
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

Using TEMPO groups for best timing of scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will develop and slowly move south this
afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions should
prevail the remainder of the afternoon and evening. May see a bit
of patchy fog try to form around KMCB tomorrow morning, but should
be short-lived.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...

Adjusted the sky cover and POP grids to better reflect ongoing
convective coverage through the morning hours. The greatest precip
coverage this morning is along the Louisiana coast and across
portions of Southwest Mississippi. The HRRR and WRF both indicate
that convection will become more widespread through the afternoon
hours as daytime heating increases overall instability. Given
this, still have likely to definite POP in place for the afternoon
hours. The convective risk should diminish to chance POP tonight
over inland areas, but areas along the coast and offshore should
see likely POP persist through the night as a weak frontal
boundary slides south. No other adjustments to the forecast were
made at this time. 32

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 802 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture rich atmosphere was sampled this morning with a
precipitable water value approaching 2.2 inches. Plenty of
instability and a lifting mechanism (e.g. approaching front) will
yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms today. With the high PW
and a slow storm motion around 5 to 10 knots to the south, main
concern will be efficient rain producers that may cause minor
street flooding. Have already seen efficient rain producer over
Gulfport this morning where almost 3.5 inches was received in 3
hours, partially aided by back building storms. A lesser concern
will be downdraft wind gusts as there are no substaintial dry
layers yielding a marginal DCAPE value. A peak wind speed of 25
knots was found at 16000 feet.

12z balloon info: A routine flight lasting 105 minutes ascending
to a height of 20.6 miles above the ground bursting over the
western part of Lake Pontchartrain 32 miles downrange from the
office.

Ansorge

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Rain chances will be high today as a front moves into the area.
High moisture content combined with ample instability will trigger
a round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Will carry a 70 to 80 percent chance of rain today. The main
concerns with the storms today will be heavy rainfall in a very
short period of time and downburst potential. With the storm
motion being fairly slow and expecting the movement to be based
on propagation some localized flooding will be possible today. The
front will slowly sag south and should be along the coast by
tomorrow. This will put higher rain chances south of the I-10
corridor and out across the coastal waters. With the increase in
convection and overall cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler
for the next couple of days. Thursday rain chances should be lower
as we will transition into another pattern and temperatures should
be near normal.

LONG TERM...
Long range forecast has not changed from previous forecast. High
pressure should build into region over the latter half of the
week into the weekend. A more typical summertime regime will be
in place with pretty much 20 percent chance of showers and storms
each day. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 90s by the end
of the week. The high will continue to be in place through the
early part of next week and rain chances should be below 10
percent. Temperatures should climb into the middle to upper 90s
during the afternoon hours. Fortunately, dewpoints should remain
in the upper 60s and lower 70s, so heat index readings should onlyout around 105 degrees in the afternoon. Very similar
conditions are expected for next Monday.

AVIATION...
Convection will become more widespread by late morning
or and during the afternoon hours and will carry prevailing SHRA
during this period. Mainly VFR category conditions will prevail
outside of convection areas. /11/

MARINE...
Still anticipating a cold front to stall over the coastal
waters tonight and then slowly lose its identity through the
remainder of the work week. This front will serve as a focus for
showers and thunderstorms which will lead to locally higher winds
and seas along with waterspouts possible. Outside of the convection
winds will be quite light with seas at or below 3 feet. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  72  91  70 /  70  50  40  10
BTR  91  73  90  72 /  80  50  50  20
ASD  91  75  89  74 /  60  60  60  30
MSY  91  78  89  77 /  60  60  60  30
GPT  89  75  88  75 /  60  50  60  30
PQL  90  75  89  75 /  40  60  60  30

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281735
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 28/18Z terminal forecast, MVFR flight categories will
linger into the afternoon for many of the sites along and
South of Interstate 20 in wake of a frontal boundary moving
out of the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in wake of the boundary as well. Lower visibility restrictions
will accompany the convection along with gusty winds from
outflow boundaries from dissipating storms. Early Wednesday
morning there may be a few locations with visibility restrictions
in mist/BRwith brief mvfr due light winds and cooler morning
temperatures. High pressure building into the forecast area will
provide north to northeast winds 5-10 knots. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Weak surface boundary continues to makes progress southward into
the southern sections of the region with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms expected through the afternoon as we
reach forecast convective temperature. Expect the majority of
showers and storms to develop generally along and south of the
I-20 corridor where better moisture pooling and higher instability
can be found. The current forecast handles this scenario well and
have only updated dew points to closer align with current obs and
trends. Otherwise, the forecast was left intact. Updated text
products have already been sent. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  74  94  73 /  30  10  10  10
MLU  89  72  92  70 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  93  68  93  68 /  10   0  10  10
TXK  92  71  93  70 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  90  70  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  30  10  10  10
GGG  92  72  94  72 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  91  74  94  73 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/19

      
      

  
    
  
  
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