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0000A72E000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 220048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING BY .15 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW
850MB...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AROUND 850 TO 750MB...SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THIS
LAYER...AND HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION
OF AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 5000 FEET.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 220048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING BY .15 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW
850MB...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AROUND 850 TO 750MB...SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THIS
LAYER...AND HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION
OF AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 5000 FEET.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 212336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  20  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 212336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  20  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 212229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78 /  10  50  90  20
KBPT  59  72  63  77 /  10  60  90  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77 /  20  30  90  30
KLFT  54  73  63  79 /  10  30  90  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 212229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78 /  10  50  90  20
KBPT  59  72  63  77 /  10  60  90  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77 /  20  30  90  30
KLFT  54  73  63  79 /  10  30  90  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME 
00004000
FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT I
00003CC0
S THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  7
00004000
8  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60 
00001243
 20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES 
00004000
COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL 
00004000
TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211727 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGIN DETERIORATING AS MARINE LAYER FETCH STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ADVANCE TO THE MORE INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING STEADY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TIDES ARE STILL BEHAVING BUT EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
NEAR PLUS 2 FOOT ANOMALIES FOR SATURDAY HIGH TIDE. NO CHANGES TO THINKING
AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAINFALL/COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
             FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211727 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGIN DETERIORATING AS MARINE LAYER FETCH STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ADVANCE TO THE MORE INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING STEADY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TIDES ARE STILL BEHAVING BUT EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
NEAR PLUS 2 FOOT ANOMALIES FOR SATURDAY HIGH TIDE. NO CHANGES TO THINKING
AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAINFALL/COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
             FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRA
00004000
DIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211727 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGIN DETERIORATING AS MARINE LAYER FETCH STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ADVANCE TO THE MORE INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING STEADY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TIDES ARE STILL BEHAVING BUT EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
NEAR PLUS 2 FOOT ANOMALIES FOR SATURDAY HIGH TIDE. NO CHANGES TO THINKING
AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAINFALL/COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
             FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211727 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGIN DETERIORATING AS MARINE LAYER FETCH STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ADVANCE TO THE MORE INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING STEADY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TIDES ARE STILL BEHAVING BUT EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
NEAR PLUS 2 FOOT ANOMALIES FOR SATURDAY HIGH TIDE. NO CHANGES TO THINKING
AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAINFALL/COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
             FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODEL
00004000
S
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211657
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62 /  20  10  80  90
KBPT  73  60  74  63 /  40  20  80  90
KAEX  69  52  72  60 /  20  20  60  90
KLFT  72  55  72  63 /  10  10  70  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211657
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62 /  20  10  80  90
KBPT  73  60  74  63 /  40  20  80  90
KAEX  69  52  72  60 /  20  20  60  90
KLFT  72  55  72  63 /  10  10  70  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211657
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVE
00004000
R 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62 /  20  10  80  90
KBPT  73  60  74  63 /  40  20  80  90
KAEX  69  52  72  60 /  20  20  60  90
KLFT  72  55  72  63 /  10  10  70  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211657
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62 /  20  10  80  90
KBPT  73  60  74  63 /  40  20  80  90
KAEX  69  52  72  60 /  20  20  60  90
KLFT  72  55  72  63 /  10  10  70  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO B
00004000
E OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211148
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211148
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211148
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211148
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
00004000
S FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
TH
00004000
E OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 211004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  74  60  74  63  78 /  30  20  80  90  10
KAEX  70  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  73  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211003
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN 
00004000
ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 211003
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210936
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210936
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210936
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TST
00004000
MS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210936
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  54  71  60  73 /  50  30  60 100  20
MLU  67  50  71  60  75 /  40  20  30 100  20
DEQ  61  53  66  54  69 /  60  60  70 100  30
TXK  62  52  68  57  71 /  60  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  70  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  68  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  72  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210602
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RACE OVERHEAD ACROSS
A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GIVE WAS TO
MVFR/IFR LATER DURING THE MORNING. PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SLOWER TO FALL AND MAY REMAIN
MORE VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH WINDS INCREASING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210602
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RACE OVERHEAD ACROSS
A LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GIVE WAS TO
MVFR/IFR LATER DURING THE MORNING. PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SLOWER TO FALL AND MAY REMAIN
MORE VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH WINDS INCREASING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 210526
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO AND AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  69  48  69 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  48  72  49  72 /  10  10  10  60
ASD  44  71  49  70 /   0  10  10  60
MSY  53  71  57  70 /   0  10  10  60
GPT  47  69  51  68 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  41  69  46  68 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 210526
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO AND AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  69  48  69 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  48  72  49  72 /  10  10  10  60
ASD  44  71  49  70 /   0  10  10  60
MSY  53  71  57  70 /   0  10  10  60
GPT  47  69  51  68 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  41  69  46  68 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210506
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HELP IN THE FORMATION OF CLOUDS. CEILINGS HOWEVER
SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY...WHEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND WILL
PLACE VCSH AT KBPT AND KLCH TO COVER THIS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY FOR KBPT AND KLCH.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-M
00000712
ISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  10  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  20  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  10  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  6
00004000
4 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210506
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HELP IN THE FORMATION OF CLOUDS. CEILINGS HOWEVER
SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY...WHEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND WILL
PLACE VCSH AT KBPT AND KLCH TO COVER THIS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY FOR KBPT AND KLCH.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  10  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  20  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  10  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210400 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210400 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210400 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
E
00004000
AST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210400 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 0345Z...WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPRX...TO
NEAR ATLANTA TX...TO BETWEEN KELD AND KCDH. SCT SHWRS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
NWD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NEWD AND LIFT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HRS. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED SHWRS ACROSS E AND SE TX
AS DRY AIR ALOFT IS ERODED AND DISPLACED EWD.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY TO FOCUS
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS E TX AND TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HRRR HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SHWRS SO FAR THIS EVENING SO HAVE HAVE ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE FAR SE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER
00004000
 VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO 
00004000
THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...SLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED LOW LVL
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE BELOW
700 MB WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS LIMITED CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT LT RAIN WEST OF THE AREA FM PROGRESSING INTO
OUR SE TX COUNTIES.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FM THE SW TONIGHT
HELPING TO ERODE THE DRY LAYER ALOFT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACRS SE TX. IN CONCERT
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SELY WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH TEMPS RANGING FM
NR 50 ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NR 60 ACRS LOWER SE TX.

OVERALL...FCST IS ON TRACK. MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  55  71 /  20  20  10  60
KBPT  60  74  60  72 /  20  20  10  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71 /  20  20  10  50
KLFT  52  73  54  73 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 210245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
845 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE ALOFT AND
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KTXK WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HAS INFLUENCE. LATER OVERNIGHT
THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WILL RETURN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN RETURNING WITH THE NEXT APPROACH
OFF SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CURRENT INDICATIONS OF
KELD AND KMLU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HIGHER CEILINGS AND LEAN TOWARD
VFR INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REMAINING SITES OVER EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
HOLDING ON TO THE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LONGER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-9 KNOTS THROUGH 21/14Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS HIGHER OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX...10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 210200
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NOW REACHING UP TO
850MB. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FORMATION OF A VERY STRONG
INVERSION AT 800MB. WITH THIS STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...ANY
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 7000 FEET.
OVERALL...THE SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  69  48  69 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  48  72  49  72 /  10  10  10  60
ASD  44  71  49  70 /   0  10  10  60
MSY  53  71  57  70 /   0  10  10  60
GPT  47  69  51  68 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  41  69  46  68 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 210200
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NOW REACHIN
00004000
G UP TO
850MB. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FORMATION OF A VERY STRONG
INVERSION AT 800MB. WITH THIS STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...ANY
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 7000 FEET.
OVERALL...THE SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  69  48  69 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  48  72  49  72 /  10  10  10  60
ASD  44  71  49  70 /   0  10  10  60
MSY  53  71  57  70 /   0  10  10  60
GPT  47  69  51  68 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  41  69  46  68 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202325
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202325
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202325
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202325
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THE RESULT. THESE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL HELP INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MAINLY VFR
LEVELS...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBPT. ALSO...INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PLACE VCSH AT KBPT TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 202215
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME FAIRLY EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. ANOTHER RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ON
TAP FOR TOMORROW WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS WELL...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

OUR WEATHER BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ACTIVE ON SATURDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE
DEALING WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS...SO I/LL HANDLE THEM IN SEQUENTIAL
ORDER. FIRST...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW/COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
RIGHT NOW FORECAST WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY/LL REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WE/LL BE KEEPING AN EYE
00004000
 ON TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS WILL PEAK RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE RESULTING IN
ELEVATED TIDES ON EAST FACING SHORELINES...AND TIDE MODELING
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTED AREAS. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORELINES
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER EASTWARD TO BAY SAINT LOUIS FROM NOON
SATURDAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.

ON TO THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY AFTER A FEW SOLID DAYS OF
RETURN FLOW AND MODEL FORECAST PW VALUES IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE THINGS THAT COULD CURB THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
MOVING INLAND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
PARTS OF COASTAL LOUISIANA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. EITHER WAY THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...AND AM CARRYING HIGH END CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY.

GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL
HELP SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTING A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATEST
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LARGE RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN ANY
INDIVIDUAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THESE ROTATING
STORMS LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALONG THE
LINE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR TORNADO AND/OR LARGE HAIL FORMATION. RIGHT NOW...SPC IS
INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING DOES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CONSIDERATION HERE WILL BE THE RAINFALL TOTALS. AREA WIDE
AVERAGES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING 3 OR MORE INCHES. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BEING
SO DRY FOR MOST AREAS...THIS SHOULDN/T LEAD TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
NEGATIVE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IF AN AREA SEES REPEATED STORMS OR IF
RAINFALL RATES EXCEED DRAINAGE CAPACITY...WE COULD SEE SOME STREET
FLOODING OR PONDING IN LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP
TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THOUGH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA GENERALLY BASED
AT OR ABOVE SCT-BKN035.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE A TIGHTENING OF THE EASTERLY
GRADIENT WIND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE. AS STRONG DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
STRONG AS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRAWS
THE FLOW NORTHWARD. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
COINCIDE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TO PRODUCE ENHANCED TIDE
SITUATION OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT POTENTIAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THE
INCLEMENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MARINERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  44  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  48  72  49 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  67  44  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  68  53  71  57 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  65  47  69  51 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  65  41  69  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 202142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CU/STRATOCU
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COMING IN WITHIN THE LOW 70S...AT
OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY...WITH NO MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BIG
CHANGES ON THE WAY SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY COMING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. FEATURE PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY...EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE TAKING ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL BE INCOMING FROM GULF...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCOMING FROM THE WEST. QPF
SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE NATURALLY SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THREAT IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
BOUNTIFUL SHEAR IN PLAY. LACK OF CAPE HOWEVER MAY KEEP STORMS IN
CHECK. NONE-THE-LESS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WITHIN TEXT OF FORECAST AND HAVE DONE SO
ACCORDINGLY.

RAINS TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...WITH A REINFORCING
PLUNGE OF COOLER AIR INCOMING YET AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON A
00004000
ND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TREND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND LIKELY
INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  73  55  72  62 /  20  20  10  70  80
KBPT  60  74  60  72  62 /  20  20  10  80  80
KAEX  51  71  51  71  60 /  20  20  10  50  80
KLFT  52  73  54  73  64 /  10  10  10  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE

000
FXUS64 KSHV 202104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 202104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 202104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 202104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON READINGS
WITH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS JUST ON THE FRINGE AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
LA SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ON THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OVERALL...WE SEE LOTS OF 60S AND A FEW LOW 70S SOUTH WITH STILL A
FEW 50S NORTH OF THAT WEAK BACK DOOR WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THE MODIFIED GULF AIR CONTINUES NORTHWARD ON S/SW WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER NE TX. THE WATER VAPOR SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER TEXAS ON APPROACH AND SHOULD BOOST THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOTHING EVEN STRONG EXPECTED.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS WARMER...BUT LATER...SO MAYBE A WASH
CONSIDERING THE ENERGY IN THE NEGATIVE TILT. AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH GOOD VERTICAL STORM
STRUCTURE. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONDENSE INTO A LARGE MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
ENERGY ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH SOME HAIL
AS THE SYSTEM RACES EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER TREND UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PATTERN SWEEPS IN WITH PERHAPS A FEW TUESDAY
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ARE DRY AS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL AND EVEN TRENDING
COOLER IF YOU LIKE THE EURO LATE WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  67  53  71  60 /  50  50  40  60  90
MLU  48  67  49  72  59 /  40  40  20  30  90
DEQ  49  61  52  68  55 /  50  60  60  70  90
TXK  52  63  52  68  58 /  50  60  50  60  90
ELD  47  61  50  69  57 /  50  50  40  50  90
TYR  57  68  56  69  57 /  50  60  50  80  90
GGG  56  68  55  70  58 /  50  60  50  70  90
LFK  57  70  56  71  59 /  50  60  30  70  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201809 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1209 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FG STILL LINGER AS OF MIDDAY ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR...NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE FG SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT OVER THESE AREAS...CIGS WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE TXK TERMINAL. FARTHER
S...A BKN VFR CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NE
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY CLEARED THE PATCHY FG AND
IFR CIGS. IN FACT...ISOLATED -SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/N LA...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT WITHIN THE EXPANDING PSEUDO WARM SECTOR S OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR/N OF IT. SHOULD SEE CIGS AGAIN BECOME IFR
NEAR/N OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS INCREASING LATE
OVER E TX AND POSSIBLY WRN LA. THESE CIGS WILL IMPROVE ONLY SLOWLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO SW AR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. S WINDS 5-10KTS S OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH ESE WINDS AROUND 5KTS OVER SW AR. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE WEDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL HAS A FOOT HOLD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM SE OK AND ON ACROSS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD WORK OUT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CAT OR TWO WITH ALREADY LOTS OF
LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE
SPREADING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. KSHV DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND WHILE QPF IS GOING TO REMAIN TRACE OR A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST...WE HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE
15-18Z TIME FRAME AND 18-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES OUT WITH A
MINOR CORRECTION TO FOG WORDING. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  67  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  61  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  62  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  60  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  70  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  71  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  73  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201809 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1209 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FG STILL LINGER AS OF MIDDAY ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR...NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE FG SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LIFT OVER THESE AREAS...CIGS WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE TXK TERMINAL. FARTHER
S...A BKN VFR CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NE
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY CLEARED THE PATCHY FG AND
IFR CIGS. IN FACT...ISOLATED -SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/N LA...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT WITHIN THE EXPANDING PSEUDO WARM SECTOR S OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR/N OF IT. SHOULD SEE CIGS AGAIN BECOME IFR
NEAR/N OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS INCREASING LATE
OVER E TX AND POSSIBLY WRN LA. THESE CIGS WILL IMPROVE ONLY SLOWLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO SW AR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. S WINDS 5-10KTS S OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH ESE WINDS AROUND 5KTS OVER SW AR. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE WEDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL HAS A FOOT HOLD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM SE OK AND ON ACROSS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD WORK OUT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CAT OR TWO WITH ALREADY LOTS OF
LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE
SPREADING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. KSHV DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND WHILE QPF IS GOING TO REMAIN TRACE OR A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST...WE HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE
15-18Z TIME FRAME AND 18-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES OUT WITH A
MINOR CORRECTION TO FOG WORDING. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  67  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  61  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  62  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  60  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  70  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  71  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  73  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201738
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
GENERALLY AOA 4K FT AND LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INHERITED PROB GROUPS WERE RETAINED
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VCSH CARRIED INTO FRI
MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...A RAPID WARMUP ONGOING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.  ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY W
00004000
ITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  56  73  55 /  20  20  20  20
KBPT  76  60  74  59 /  20  30  30  20
KAEX  69  51  71  51 /  10  20  30  20
KLFT  73  52  73  53 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201738
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
GENERALLY AOA 4K FT AND LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INHERITED PROB GROUPS WERE RETAINED
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VCSH CARRIED INTO FRI
MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...A RAPID WARMUP ONGOING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.  ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  56  73  55 /  20  20  20  20
KBPT  76  60  74  59 /  20  30  30  20
KAEX  69  51  71  51 /  10  20  30  20
KLFT  73  52  73  53 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201724
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE WEDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL HAS A FOOT HOLD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM SE OK AND ON ACROSS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD WORK OUT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CAT OR TWO WITH ALREADY LOTS OF
LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE
SPREADING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. KSHV DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND WHILE QPF IS GOING TO REMAIN TRACE OR A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST...WE HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE
15-18Z TIME FRAME AND 18-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES OUT WITH A
MINOR CORRECTION TO FOG WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY 20/18Z. CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21/00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21/06Z FOLLOWED BY -RA CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MLU. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  67  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  61  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  62  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  60  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  70  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  71  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  73  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201724
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE WEDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL HAS A FOOT HOLD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM SE OK AND ON ACROSS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD WORK OUT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CAT OR TWO WITH ALREADY LOTS OF
LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE
SPREADING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. KSHV DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND WHILE QPF IS GOING TO REMAIN TRACE OR A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST...WE HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE
15-18Z TIME FRAME AND 18-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES OUT WITH A
MINOR CORRECTION TO FOG WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY 20/18Z. CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21/00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21/06Z FOLLOWED BY -RA CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MLU. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  67  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  61  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  62  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  60  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  70  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  71  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  73  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201724
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE WEDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL HAS A FOOT HOLD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM SE OK AND ON ACROSS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD WORK OUT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CAT OR TWO WITH ALREADY LOTS OF
LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE
SPREADING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. KSHV DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND WHILE QPF IS GOING TO REMAIN TRACE OR A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST...WE HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE
15-18Z TIME FRAME AND 18-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES OUT WITH A
MINOR CORRECTION TO FOG WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY 20/18Z. CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21/00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21/06Z FOLLOWED BY -RA CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MLU. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  67  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  61  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  62  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  60  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  70  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  71  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  73  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201724
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE WEDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL HAS A FOOT HOLD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM SE OK AND ON ACROSS THE AR/LA STATE LINE.
FURTHERMORE...THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
OVERALL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD WORK OUT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE WE HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CAT OR TWO WITH ALREADY LOTS OF
LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE 3-7KFT RANGE
SPREADING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. KSHV DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME ECHOS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND WHILE QPF IS GOING TO REMAIN TRACE OR A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST...WE HAVE EXPANDED FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE
15-18Z TIME FRAME AND 18-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES OUT WITH A
MINOR CORRECTION TO FOG WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY 20/18Z. CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21/00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21/06Z FOLLOWED BY -RA CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MLU. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  67  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  61  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  62  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  60  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  70  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  71  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  73  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLIX 201721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY
WITH SOME DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS TO ONSET LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE ISS
00004000
UANCE. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. ASSESSING COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
          SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
          SUNDAY MORNING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO FADE
AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING POSITION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY
AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR OF 70+KTS
WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST
WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER
AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING
OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ISSUE
SHOULDNT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
EVACUATE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SLOWLY BECOMING SERLY EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN WEST TX. IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A SCY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN(4-5MB DIFFERENCE OVER THE
CWA). AS OUR DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI AND INTO SAT THE LL WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE WATER.
IN ADDITION THE PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT FETCH WITH HIGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SWRLY SUN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MON WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM
SITES...MCB...ASD...GPT...AND HDC. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  68  48 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  68  49  71  51 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  67  47  70  51 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  68  54  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  65  48  68  53 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  65  44  68  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 201721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY
WITH SOME DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS TO ONSET LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. ASSESSING COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
          SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
          SUNDAY MORNING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO FADE
AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING POSITION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY
AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR OF 70+KTS
WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST
WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER
AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING
OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ISSUE
SHOULDNT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
EVACUATE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SLOWLY BECOMING SERLY EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN WEST TX. IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A SCY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN(4-5MB DIFFERENCE OVER THE
CWA). AS OUR DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI AND INTO SAT THE LL WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE WATER.
IN ADDITION THE PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT FETCH WITH HIGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SWRLY SUN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MON WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM
SITES...MCB...ASD...GPT...AND HDC. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  68  48 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  68  49  71  51 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  67  47  70  51 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  68  54  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  65  48  68  53 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  65  44  68  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 201721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY
WITH SOME DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS TO ONSET LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. ASSESSING COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
          SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
          SUNDAY MORNING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO FADE
AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING POSITION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY
AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR OF 70+KTS
WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST
WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER
AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING
OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ISSUE
SHOULDNT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
EVACUATE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SLOWLY BECOMING SERLY EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN WEST TX. IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A SCY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN(4-5MB DIFFERENCE OVER THE
CWA). AS OUR DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI AND INTO SAT THE LL WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE WATER.
IN ADDITION THE PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT FETCH WITH HIGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SWRLY SUN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MON WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM
SITES...MCB...ASD...GPT...AND HDC. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  68  48 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  68  49  71  51 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  67  47  70  51 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  68  54  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  65  48  68  53 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  65  44  68  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLIX 201721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

00004000
1121 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY
WITH SOME DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS TO ONSET LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. ASSESSING COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
          SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
          SUNDAY MORNING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO FADE
AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING POSITION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY
AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR OF 70+KTS
WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST
WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER
AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING
OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ISSUE
SHOULDNT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
EVACUATE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SLOWLY BECOMING SERLY EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN WEST TX. IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A SCY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN(4-5MB DIFFERENCE OVER THE
CWA). AS OUR DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI AND INTO SAT THE LL WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE WATER.
IN ADDITION THE PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT FETCH WITH HIGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SWRLY SUN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MON WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM
SITES...MCB...ASD...GPT...AND HDC. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  68  48 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  68  49  71  51 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  67  47  70  51 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  68  54  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  65  48  68  53 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  65  44  68  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201654
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1054 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...A RAPID WARMUP ONGOING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.  ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  76  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  69  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  73  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY 20/18Z. CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21/00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21/06Z FOLLOWED BY -RA CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MLU. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  61  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  60  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  61  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  59  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  66  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  66  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  67  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
532 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY/CEILING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW VFR BY 20/18Z. CONDITIONS
TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21/00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21/06Z FOLLOWED BY -RA CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
POSSIBLY MLU. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  61  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  60  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  61  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  59  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  66  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  66  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  67  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIO
00004000
NAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 201026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
426 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RESIDENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROF COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN HAS BEGUN
TO SHIFT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO THE PAC NW COAST.
MEANWHILE...DISTURBED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVHD TODAY...
BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR ISOLD SHWRS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS THE W COAST
DISTURBANCE DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO TX.

SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED IN THE MORNING GRIDS. FOG
SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS TX AND INTO OUR REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS.
FCST SFC-BASED CAPE LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE THAN IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS...BUT STILL ON THE MARGINAL SIDE BETWEEN 500 AND 800
J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WIND
SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SCT SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT DESTABILIZATION.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NEWD AND OUT OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF TAKES HOLD OF MUCH OF THE
CONUS ONCE AGAIN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROF DURING MONDAY...THE LAST OF WHICH WILL BRING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE DIPPING BACK BELOW FOR NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  53  67  53  70 /  20  50  50  40  60
MLU  61  48  66  49  70 /  10  40  40  20  50
DEQ  60  47  61  52  66 /  10  50  60  60  70
TXK  61  50  62  52  65 /  10  50  60  50  60
ELD  59  48  62  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  50
TYR  66  56  68  56  67 /  20  50  60  50  80
GGG  66  55  68  54  69 /  20  50  60  50  70
LFK  67  57  71  56  71 /  20  50  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLIX 200950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO FADE
AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING POSITION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY
AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR OF 70+KTS
WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST
WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER
AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING
OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ISSUE
SHOULDNT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN TUES
000032F9
DAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
EVACUATE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SLOWLY BECOMING SERLY EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN WEST TX. IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A SCY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN(4-5MB DIFFERENCE OVER THE
CWA). AS OUR DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI AND INTO SAT THE LL WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE WATER.
IN ADDITION THE PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT FETCH WITH HIGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SWRLY SUN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MON WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM
SITES...MCB...ASD...GPT...AND HDC. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  68  48 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  68  49  71  51 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  67  47  70  51 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  68  54  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  65  48  68  53 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  65  44  68  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 200950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO FADE
AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING POSITION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIGNIFICANCE SATURDAY
AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR OF 70+KTS
WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED
NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST
WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER
AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS
NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING
OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ISSUE
SHOULDNT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FURTHER INLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CNTRD OVER THE REGION WILL QUICKLY
EVACUATE TO THE EAST LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SLOWLY BECOMING SERLY EARLY FRI
MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN WEST TX. IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT A SCY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRI AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN(4-5MB DIFFERENCE OVER THE
CWA). AS OUR DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRI AND INTO SAT THE LL WINDS
WILL RESPOND AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE WATER.
IN ADDITION THE PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND
THROUGH SAT EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DECENT FETCH WITH HIGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SWRLY SUN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MON WHEN
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM
SITES...MCB...ASD...GPT...AND HDC. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  45  68  48 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  68  49  71  51 /   0  10  10   0
ASD  67  47  70  51 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  68  54  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  65  48  68  53 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  65  44  68  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 200616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRODUCE A LOWERING OF THE
CEILINGS FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR TO BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR
WITH PATCHY MIST/BR DEVELOPING PRODUCING 3-5 SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING FOR SOME OF THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LOW VFR RETURNING AND LASTING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. JUST BEYOND THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS TO SEE RAIN EXPANDING. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL SEE MORE VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
AND WASHING OUT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO 6-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE GRADUALLY INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...AS WEAK AND VERY LOW LVL...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE
RETURNED TO THE AREA. STILL CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
APPROACH THESE DEWPOINTS...AS LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AND NOT LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD. THUS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST TX...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...APPEAR REASONABLE. NO UPDATE NEEDED./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A HUMBLING DAY OF WIND GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC GRADIENT.
AFTERNOON READINGS SURPASSING READINGS SEEN ANYTIME DURING THE
LAST WEEK AND THEN SOME WITH NEAR 70 AT LUFKIN AND LOTS OF MID TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA TO THE NE. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE
FINALLY SUBSIDED...BUT STILL UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S AT THIS
HOUR. A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...LIES AROUND
5KFT. THIS WILL FADE SOON AND THEN LOWER DECKS WILL ADVECT IN
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY...WE ARE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN AT TIMES BETTER THAN
AVERAGE.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES MUCH OF
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW BACKS TO SE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY...STEELING SOME OF THE RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING AS MODIFIED GULF AIR STILL REELING FROM THE ARCTIC DRY
DOWN LIFTS BACK INTO PLAY. POP COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN...BUT NOT GO
AWAY COMPLETELY.

THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN REMARKABLY STABLE FOR THE MOST
PART DURING SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY AND A
NEGATIVE TILT LATE SATURDAY THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING. LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND RECENT RAIN WILL GO ALONG WAY. HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE
JUST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH LIMITED
WIND. THE SFC COLD FRONT TAKES AN EXTRA DAY OR SO IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TILT. THE NEW WEEK BEGINS STILL WARM...BUT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SEASONAL AS A BLEND OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TUESDAY AND LINGERS FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  67  53  67  54 /  10  20  50  50  40
MLU  38  63  47  66  49 /  10  10  40  40  20
DEQ  34  61  47  59  52 /  10  10  50  60  60
TXK  40  63  51  63  53 /  10  10  50  60  50
ELD  39  60  47  61  49 /  10  10  50  60  40
TYR  45  66  56  68  57 /  10  20  50  60  50
GGG  44  68  56  67  55 /  10  20  50  60  50
LFK  48  69  57  72  57 /  10  20  50  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 200542
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
20/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF FCST. LATEST STLT IMAGES
SHOW SKC TO FEW/SCT STRATOCU ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT SCT 4-5 KFT
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BKN THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN
12-14Z. VFR STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CIGS REMAINING ABV 3500 FT. A FEW -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BPT AFTER
00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FM THE WEST. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A
00004000
 SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  68  54  70 /  10  10  20  30
KBPT  52  70  60  71 /  10  20  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  45  69  52  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 200521
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT A
SOME OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY...PRIMARILY AT
KMCB...KGPT...KASD AND KHDC. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  66  45  68 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  41  68  49  71 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  38  67  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  45  68  54  70 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  39  65  48  68 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  34  65  44  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 200521
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT A
SOME OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY...PRIMARILY AT
KMCB...KGPT...KASD AND KHDC. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  66  45  68 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  41  68  49  71 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  38  67  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  45  68  54  70 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  39  65  48  68 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  34  65  44  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15

00001D2B
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 200242 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED AROUND 800MB ON THE 00Z
SOUNDING...AND THIS HAS HELPED TO PUSH PW VALUES UP FROM 0.16 AT
12Z TO 0.32 THIS EVENING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO NOTED
BELOW 900MB...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AN IMPRESSIVE 5C BELOW
850MB. THERE IS ALSO NOTICABLE WARMING FROM 800MB UP TO 300MB.
THIS WARMING AIRMASS TRANSLATED INTO DAYTIME HIGHS RISING UP TO
NEAR 60 IN MANY SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY STABLE WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES NOTED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AND A
STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION OF 3C IN PLACE AT 800MB. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  66  45  68 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  41  68  49  71 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  38  67  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  45  68  54  70 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  39  65  48  68 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  34  65  44  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 200242 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED AROUND 800MB ON THE 00Z
SOUNDING...AND THIS HAS HELPED TO PUSH PW VALUES UP FROM 0.16 AT
12Z TO 0.32 THIS EVENING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO NOTED
BELOW 900MB...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AN IMPRESSIVE 5C BELOW
850MB. THERE IS ALSO NOTICABLE WARMING FROM 800MB UP TO 300MB.
THIS WARMING AIRMASS TRANSLATED INTO DAYTIME HIGHS RISING UP TO
NEAR 60 IN MANY SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY STABLE WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES NOTED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...AND A
STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION OF 3C IN PLACE AT 800MB. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  66  45  68 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  41  68  49  71 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  38  67  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  45  68  54  70 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  39  65  48  68 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  34  65  44  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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