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000
FXUS64 KLCH 302025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO MOSTLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WITH HRR HINTING AT A BUILDING COMPLEX MOVING EAST...WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. THINK MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER DIFFLUENUCE OVER THE
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY GENERATE SUNDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER TREND WILL BE FORECASTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EAST.  HOWEVER...GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD LOW DIURNAL POPS BY MIDWEEK.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ON THE VERY LOW END LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...VERY BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE VERY TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  60  40  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  40  40  30
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO MOSTLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WITH HRR HINTING AT A BUILDING COMPLEX MOVING EAST...WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. THINK MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER DIFFLUENUCE OVER THE
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY GENERATE SUNDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER TREND WILL BE FORECASTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EAST.  HOWEVER...GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD LOW DIURNAL POPS BY MIDWEEK.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ON THE VERY LOW END LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...VERY BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE VERY TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  60  40  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  40  40  30
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO MOSTLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WITH HRR HINTING AT A BUILDING COMPLEX MOVING EAST...WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. THINK MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER DIFFLUENUCE OVER THE
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY GENERATE SUNDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER TREND WILL BE FORECASTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EAST.  HOWEVER...GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD LOW DIURNAL POPS BY MIDWEEK.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ON THE VERY LOW END LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...VERY BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE VERY TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  60  40  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  40  40  30
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO MOSTLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WITH HRR HINTING AT A BUILDING COMPLEX MOVING EAST...WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. THINK MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER DIFFLUENUCE OVER THE
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY GENERATE SUNDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER TREND WILL BE FORECASTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EAST.  HOWEVER...GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD LOW DIURNAL POPS BY MIDWEEK.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ON THE VERY LOW END LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...VERY BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE VERY TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  60  40  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  40  40  30
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 302025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO MOSTLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WITH HRR HINTING AT A BUILDING COMPLEX MOVING EAST...WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. THINK MOST OF ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH UPPER DIFFLUENUCE OVER THE
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY GENERATE SUNDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER TREND WILL BE FORECASTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA AND LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EAST.  HOWEVER...GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD LOW DIURNAL POPS BY MIDWEEK.  MODELS ARE
SHOWING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS
ON THE VERY LOW END LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...VERY BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER NORTHERN
GULF. OUTSIDE OF ANY LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BE VERY TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  60  40  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  40  40  30
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 302017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH CAPE...LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THERE IS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTIVE HEATING IS AT ITS MAXIMUM. PART OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD GET CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER LA...AR
AND MS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND MOVES TO
AL..TN BY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST LA AND THE SLOWLY
RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN MS AND AL LATER DURING THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL HELP LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BRING
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK...SINCE ANY THAT FORM
WILL BE GOOD WET MICROBURST CANDIDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS FIELD RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION RANDOMLY DOTTING THE AREA. ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN REFIRING BY ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO AS WELL. 35

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 17/35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  83  67 /  60  40  60  40
BTR  87  70  85  68 /  60  40  60  40
ASD  86  71  85  70 /  50  30  60  40
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  60  30  60  40
GPT  85  72  84  71 /  30  20  40  40
PQL  86  70  85  70 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 302017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH CAPE...LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THERE IS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER LA AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTIVE HEATING IS AT ITS MAXIMUM. PART OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD GET CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER LA...AR
AND MS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND MOVES TO
AL..TN BY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST LA AND THE SLOWLY
RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN MS AND AL LATER DURING THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL HELP LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND BRING
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK...SINCE ANY THAT FORM
WILL BE GOOD WET MICROBURST CANDIDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS FIELD RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION RANDOMLY DOTTING THE AREA. ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN REFIRING BY ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO AS WELL. 35

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 17/35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  83  67 /  60  40  60  40
BTR  87  70  85  68 /  60  40  60  40
ASD  86  71  85  70 /  50  30  60  40
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  60  30  60  40
GPT  85  72  84  71 /  30  20  40  40
PQL  86  70  85  70 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  63  81 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  66  82  63  80 /  50  40  30  30
DEQ  55  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  60  79  61  79 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  62  80  60  79 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  62  80  61  81 /  40  20  10  20
GGG  62  80  62  81 /  40  20  10  20
LFK  65  82  63  83 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  63  81 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  66  82  63  80 /  50  40  30  30
DEQ  55  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  60  79  61  79 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  62  80  60  79 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  62  80  61  81 /  40  20  10  20
GGG  62  80  62  81 /  40  20  10  20
LFK  65  82  63  83 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  63  81 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  66  82  63  80 /  50  40  30  30
DEQ  55  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  60  79  61  79 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  62  80  60  79 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  62  80  61  81 /  40  20  10  20
GGG  62  80  62  81 /  40  20  10  20
LFK  65  82  63  83 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  63  81 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  66  82  63  80 /  50  40  30  30
DEQ  55  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  60  79  61  79 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  62  80  60  79 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  62  80  61  81 /  40  20  10  20
GGG  62  80  62  81 /  40  20  10  20
LFK  65  82  63  83 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN 
00004000
AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  63  81 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  66  82  63  80 /  50  40  30  30
DEQ  55  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  60  79  61  79 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  62  80  60  79 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  62  80  61  81 /  40  20  10  20
GGG  62  80  62  81 /  40  20  10  20
LFK  65  82  63  83 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301838
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301838
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301838
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301838
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301838
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301838
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERI
00004000
NG
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
AIDING IN PRODUCING ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE BPT TERMINAL
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR VIS IN HEAVY PRECIP. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL WHERE OCNL MVFR CIGS BLO
2K FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS LCH, LFT, AND ARA WILL LIKELY SEE
TSTMS WITH OCNL MVFR. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER TNITE AND INTO SUNDAY,
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL TSTMS EARLY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
AIDING IN PRODUCING ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE BPT TERMINAL
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR VIS IN HEAVY PRECIP. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL WHERE OCNL MVFR CIGS BLO
2K FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS LCH, LFT, AND ARA WILL LIKELY SEE
TSTMS WITH OCNL MVFR. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER TNITE AND INTO SUNDAY,
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL TSTMS EARLY SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION RANDOMLY DOTTING THE AREA. ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL BACK IN WESTERN LOUISIANA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS...AND AMEND AS NECESSARY IF A TERMINAL IS GOING
TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. MOST OR ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN REFIRING BY ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER TODAY WITH JUST A LITTLE FORCING AT
THE SFC. SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK HEATING WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. A 5 F INVERSION IS PRESENT IN THE FIRST 500 FT. PLENTY
OF CAPE WITH 1800 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER AND 3000 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPE I
WATERSPOUTS OVER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS TOWERING CUMULUS BUILD.
PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.71 INCHES AND WITH THE AMPLE CAPE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SHEAR AND MICROBURST PROFILE
ARE UNFAVORABLE BUT COULD BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY LOCAL
BOUNDARIES. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN SWITCH
TO WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS JUST 25 KTS AT 200 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE CWA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION RANDOMLY DOTTING THE AREA. ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL BACK IN WESTERN LOUISIANA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS...AND AMEND AS NECESSARY IF A TERMINAL IS GOING
TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. MOST OR ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN REFIRING BY ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER TODAY WITH JUST A LITTLE FORCING AT
THE SFC. SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK HEATING WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. A 5 F INVERSION IS PRESENT IN THE FIRST 500 FT. PLENTY
OF CAPE WITH 1800 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER AND 3000 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPE I
WATERSPOUTS OVER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS TOWERING CUMULUS BUILD.
PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.71 INCHES AND WITH THE AMPLE CAPE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SHEAR AND MICROBURST PROFILE
ARE UNFAVORABLE BUT COULD BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY LOCAL
BOUNDARIES. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN SWITCH
TO WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS JUST 25 KTS AT 200 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNI
00000F99
GHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301454
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
00004000

RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS
RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301454
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS
RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301454
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
954 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. WELL
DEFINED MCV SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS
GENERATED A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ENCOUNTERING
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH...NEW CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NW FLANK OF THE MCV ACROSS N TX AND S OK.
ASSUMING THE MCV KEEPS ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...EXPECT MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTN.

ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FCST THEREFORE...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT AS FAR AS EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES/
PARISHES SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS
RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301438
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301438
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301438
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS
00004000
 FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301438
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE POPS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAKENING MCS
MOVING INTO NE TEXAS. SOME ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS LCH SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF MCS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO POP OR RAINFALL FORECASTS AT THIS MOMENT
AS CONFIGURATION OF MID TO HIGH POPS FOR LATER TODAY LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301315
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER TODAY WITH JUST A LITTLE FORCING AT
THE SFC. SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK HEATING WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. A 5 F INVERSION IS PRESENT IN THE FIRST 500 FT. PLENTY
OF CAPE WITH 1800 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER AND 3000 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPE I
WATERSPOUTS OVER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS TOWERING CUMULUS BUILD.
PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.71 INCHES AND WITH THE AMPLE CAPE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SHEAR AND MICROBURST PROFILE
ARE UNFAVORABLE BUT COULD BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY LOCAL
BOUNDARIES. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN SWITCH
TO WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS JUST 25 KTS AT 200 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301315
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER TODAY WITH JUST A LITTLE FORCING AT
THE SFC. SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK HEATING WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. A 5 F INVERSION IS PRESENT IN THE FIRST 500 FT. PLENTY
OF CAPE WITH 1800 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER AND 3000 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPE I
WATERSPOUTS OVER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS TOWERING CUMULUS BUILD.
PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.71 INCHES AND WITH THE AMPLE CAPE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SHEAR AND MICROBURST PROFILE
ARE UNFAVORABLE BUT COULD BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY LOCAL
BOUNDARIES. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN SWITCH
TO WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS JUST 25 KTS AT 200 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301315
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER TODAY WITH JUST A LITTLE FORCING AT
THE SFC. SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK HEATING WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. A 5 F INVERSION IS PRESENT IN THE FIRST 500 FT. PLENTY
OF CAPE WITH 1800 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER AND 3000 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPE I
WATERSPOUTS OVER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS TOWERING CUMULUS BUILD.
PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.71 INCHES AND WITH THE AMPLE CAPE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SHEAR AND MICROBURST PROFILE
ARE UNFAVORABLE BUT COULD BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY LOCAL
BOUNDARIES. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN SWITCH
TO WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS JUST 25 KTS AT 200 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POI
00004000
NT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 301315
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS UNSTABLE AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE LATER TODAY WITH JUST A LITTLE FORCING AT
THE SFC. SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK HEATING WILL PROVIDE
THE LIFT. A 5 F INVERSION IS PRESENT IN THE FIRST 500 FT. PLENTY
OF CAPE WITH 1800 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER AND 3000 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF TYPE I
WATERSPOUTS OVER COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS TOWERING CUMULUS BUILD.
PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.71 INCHES AND WITH THE AMPLE CAPE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE SHEAR AND MICROBURST PROFILE
ARE UNFAVORABLE BUT COULD BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY LOCAL
BOUNDARIES. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THEN SWITCH
TO WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS JUST 25 KTS AT 200 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WIH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WIH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WIH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR WIH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALONG AND N OF I-20
WHERE WIDELY SCT TSTMS/LOW CIGS/BR ARE MAKING FOR A FEW ISSUES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TSTM COMPLEX IS GOING TO BE AFFECTING ALL
OF NE TX/N LA IT APPEARS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. A FROPA WILL
RAP UP THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FM S/SW TO NW. EXPECT IFR
AND WIND WITH TSTMS...GUSTS COULD BE COME SVR WITH HAIL. ATTM OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE SW/W 20-40KTS INTO THE MID LEVELS. HIGHER SPEEDS
ON THE COMPLEX ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF TURBULENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN I
00004000
NTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ACRS CNTRL LA THIS AM CEILINGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS ARE MOVING ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO EAST TEXAS THIS AM. THIS ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
NORTH OF AEX. STORMS FOR TODAY TO DEVELOP DRG THE AFTN HOURS AND
MOV TO THE NORTH ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 301149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ACRS CNTRL LA THIS AM CEILINGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS ARE MOVING ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO EAST TEXAS THIS AM. THIS ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
NORTH OF AEX. STORMS FOR TODAY TO DEVELOP DRG THE AFTN HOURS AND
MOV TO THE NORTH ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 301107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000010DC

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300928
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300928
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE INITIAL MCS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WITH HIGH PW`S LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER WITH WET SOILS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE
ECMWF IN MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED REDUCED RAINFALL
CHANCES. THAT SAID THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (AVERAGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES) TO CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF THAT COULD SWELL SOME OF THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT ARE IN FLOOD AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW OTHERS TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD.

AS MENTIONED ALREADY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT POPS STILL
MAY BE TOO HIGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
REDUCED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INSTEAD OF ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  68  83  66 /  60  40  60  20
LCH  86  70  85  68 /  60  30  60  40
LFT  86  69  84  69 /  60  30  60  40
BPT  85  69  85  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO
00004000
PLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
17/TE

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
17/TE

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
17/TE

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY UNSETTLED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER POTENT MCS WITH
VIGOROUS MCV APPROACHING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FORMING ON CONVERGENT STREAKS
AND ENHANCED BY THE GULF BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD TROUGHING
WOULD SUGGEST THE IMPETUS OF THE NORTH TEXAS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS LIKEWISE BUT WITH A SLOWER TIMING. BOTH ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY FOR MORE STORMINESS
WITH LOWER LCL AND TRIGGER TEMPERATURE UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER SOME
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR JUNE AND LATE INITIATION THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE CASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A LARGE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST GULF /GFS/ OR LOWER
SOUTHEAST STATES /ECMWF/. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A
HIGHER RISK FOR DOWNBURST CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION THAT FORMS ON
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ALLBLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST DECK SHOULD BE IN RIGHT AROUND DARK AND SHOULD BE AROUND 1500
TO 2000FT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS A LITTLE HIGHER INLAND TO ABOUT
3000FT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE FROM 200 TO 500 PREVAILING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND WILL
HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AT LEAST 1SM FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  66 /  50  50  60  40
BTR  87  69  85  67 /  50  40  60  50
ASD  86  70  85  68 /  50  30  50  50
MSY  86  72  85  71 /  50  30  60  50
GPT  85  71  84  70 /  30  20  40  50
PQL  86  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
17/TE

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATUR
00004000
ES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOW
00004000
ERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300508
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT KLCH...SO FOLLOWED SUIT BY JUST
CARRYING A TEMPO MVFR. DID HOLD ONTO MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KAEX...BUT
REMOVED THE LOWER VSBY. OTHER CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FCST WERE
MINIMAL...BUT DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP AT THE I-10 TERMINALS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300457
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
MAY AFFECT MCB...BTR AND POSSIBLY MSY BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z
SATURDAY. WILL INSERT PROB30 DURING THAT TIME FRAME. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 6 TO
12 KTS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. AFTER 08Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CIGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING VFR
AFTER FROPA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 16Z SATURDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH 31/00Z. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 239 HAS EXPIRED. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS IN FLOOD...LOCALLY HIGH
QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 6 TO
12 KTS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. AFTER 08Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CIGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING VFR
AFTER FROPA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 16Z SATURDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH 31/00Z. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 239 HAS EXPIRED. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS IN FLOOD...LOCALLY HIGH
QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 6 TO
12 KTS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. AFTER 08Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CIGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING VFR
AFTER FROPA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 16Z SATURDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH 31/00Z. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 239 HAS EXPIRED. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS IN FLOOD...LOCALLY HIGH
QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SA
00004000
TURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
00004000

AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS DIMINISHING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE AND WILL THUS REMOVE POPS THROUGH 30/06Z. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GRIDS...AS VORT MAX SEEN
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.88
INCHES ON 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM KLCH) MAY INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/
00004000
ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PU
00004000
LLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS DRY ADIABATIC TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK
AROUND 2700 FEET THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
REMAINS ELEVATED FOR LATE MAY AT 1.58 INCHES. WEAK WINDS WERE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 18 KNOTS AT 46100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING LASTING 103 MINUTES
AND ASCENDING TO A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
BALLOON BURST NEAR LACOMBE 7 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
BTR  70  86  69  85 /  20  60  40  60
ASD  71  86  68  85 /  20  50  30  50
MSY  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  30  60
GPT  73  85  70  85 /  20  40  30  50
PQL  69  86  68  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 239 HAS EXPIRED. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS IN FLOOD...LOCALLY HIGH
QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69 
00004000
 84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 239 HAS EXPIRED. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS IN FLOOD...LOCALLY HIGH
QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 239 HAS EXPIRED. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS IN FLOOD...LOCALLY HIGH
QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD ISSUES. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
714 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SE OK...SW AR...NE TX AND NORTH CENTRAL LA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS...IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
IN AND AROUND THIS CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING. A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MOST CONVECTION
ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 6 TO
12 KTS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. AFTER 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CIGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING VFR
AFTER FROPA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 16Z SATURDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH 31/00Z. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 300014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
714 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SE OK...SW AR...NE TX AND NORTH CENTRAL LA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS...IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
IN AND AROUND THIS CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING. A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MOST CONVECTION
ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND 6 TO
12 KTS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. AFTER 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO CIGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING VFR
AFTER FROPA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 16Z SATURDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH 31/00Z. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER 
00004000
LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 300002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
702 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING PIVOTING THROUGH NE TX HELPING TO FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG A FEW N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BANDS EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. INSERTED VCTS FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE FCST AT KAEX...AND WILL AMD AS NEEDED IF
MORE DIRECT IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY. VFR AT REMAINING
TERMINALS...WITH THE RECENT MVFR OB AT KBPT LOOKING TO BE SHORT
LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

REST OF THE NIGHT PROGGED TO BE CONVECTION FREE...THOUGH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FOR THIS CYCLE...INSERTED MVFR
TEMPO IFR AT KAEX AND KLCH WHERE THE GREATEST SUPPORT IN MODEL
DATA AND NUMERICAL MOS IS FOUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCLUSION AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...SO VCTS WAS INSERTED ALL TERMINALS AT 16Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  86  67 /  50  20  60  40
BTR  87  70  86  69 /  50  20  60  40
ASD  85  71  86  68 /  40  20  50  30
MSY  86  73  86  72 /  40  20  50  30
GPT  84  73  85  70 /  40  20  40  30
PQL  85  69  86  68 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. IN
FACT...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB LINE WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS. A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING OMEGA
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FARTHER FROM THE
COAST...AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STREET FLOODING IF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION LONG ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE
DAY AND THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOME LINGERING VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF NATION. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION...AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE EURO SOLUTION HAS THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND STALL MORE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT STILL
DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER AND THE RIDGE FAR MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A
COOLER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION AND THE EURO SHOWS A WARMER AND
MUCH DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES...AND THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT
OFF LOW WILL FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF...HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THUS...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-040. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT
OF TODAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A VERY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLIPS TOWARD THE TIDAL LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME WEAK LANDBREEZE
EFFECTS COULD IMPACT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE
BORGNE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE BY MID-MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  86  67 /  50  20  60  40
BTR  87  70  86  69 /  50  20  60  40
ASD  85  71  86  68 /  40  20  50  30
MSY  86  73  86  72 /  40  20  50  30
GPT  84  73  85  70 /  40  20  40  30
PQL  85  69  86  68 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
00004000
...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS.

/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

VII/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS.

/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

VII/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 292008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT TO MENTION PUBLIC
BRIEFINGS CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND CRESTS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A
DISSERTATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV WHICH
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NE TX/SE OK ATTM. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PER THE HRRR AND MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A REMNANT BOUNDARY BOTH AT THE SFC
AND AT THE 8H LEVEL LAYING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE EVEN
THROUGH WE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VOID OF ANY RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NW TO SE BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE TENN VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HAVE
LOWERED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
RIDGING PER THE 12Z ECMWF AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS.

/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  40  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  30  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  30  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  40  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  40  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

VII/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291921
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  30  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  30  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  20  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  20  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  30  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  30  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  30  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH S
00004000
ATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291921
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST FOR TORNADO WATCH #239 VALID UNTIL 7 PM FOR
SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR. WELL DEFINED MCV CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH OF
THE AR/LA LINE...THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FOR THAT REASON...THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY CELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND/OR THE FORECAST ATTM...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  66  81 /  60  60  30  40
MLU  69  84  67  82 /  60  60  30  50
DEQ  67  79  64  78 /  60  60  20  20
TXK  68  81  65  79 /  60  60  20  30
ELD  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  30  40
TYR  69  81  65  80 /  60  60  30  20
GGG  69  82  66  80 /  60  60  30  30
LFK  70  85  67  83 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291811
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL SOON BE REACHED SO INCLUDED
VCSH/TS AT THE TERMINALS...WITH VFR. EARLIER ACTIVITY OUT OF TEXAS
HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO A
CAPPING INVERSION. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...BUMPING UP POPS IN SE TX
THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POPS AND TEMPS...SO
WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARDS SE TX HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATES BPT AND LCH
FOR MRNG STORMS. WILL MONITOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH TO MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS/WINDS/AND LIGHTNING ISSUES
FOR THIS NEXT LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  50  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  50  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291811
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
111 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL SOON BE REACHED SO INCLUDED
VCSH/TS AT THE TERMINALS...WITH VFR. EARLIER ACTIVITY OUT OF TEXAS
HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO A
CAPPING INVERSION. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, COULD AGAIN
SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...BUMPING UP POPS IN SE TX
THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POPS AND TEMPS...SO
WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARDS SE TX HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATES BPT AND LCH
FOR MRNG STORMS. WILL MONITOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH TO MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS/WINDS/AND LIGHTNING ISSUES
FOR THIS NEXT LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  50  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  50  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...11

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY..
00004000
.HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291732
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-035. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO
MAKE NOTE OF. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN FOR LATE EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT TO SEE POPS INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET YESTERDAY WITH ONLY ISLTD
ACTIVITY...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONDITIONS WERE QUIET MUGGY. AT
6Z MOST SITES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY RANGING FROM UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER SOME WITH PWS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 BY EARLY
AFTN. IN ADDITION AN H85 THETA E SURGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. THE RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX
WILL BE MOVING TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUT THE
AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
LIFT/SUPPORT...INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SCT AFTN CONVECTION TODAY.

HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND MID LVL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND EVEN DEEPEN BY SUN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE DAY. BY SUN THE DEEPENING TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA.

SUN AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE IN A WET PATTERN. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BASICALLY AGREE
(OF COURSE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES) THAT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
COULD EVEN DIG INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WOULD BASICALLY KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN BUT LUCKILY IT SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORM INTENSITY DOWN. SO NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR MAINLY A WET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. /CAB/

AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE LIFTING AS
AN INVERSION MIXES OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET LATER
TODAY...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO BE VERY TRANSITORY AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE TO SHOW ANY IN 12Z TAF PACK. VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AROUND
2SM IF THE MID LEVEL DECK CLEARS FOR A WHILE. BUT THIS 6K FT DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR LONG PERIODS.

MARINE... EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL KEEP A GENERAL SE
FLOW OVERALL.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  84  68 /  40  40  50  40
BTR  87  70  85  70 /  40  40  50  40
ASD  85  71  85  71 /  40  40  30  30
MSY  86  73  85  72 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  84  73  85  72 /  40  30  30  20
PQL  85  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291434
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
934 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO
MAKE NOTE OF. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN FOR LATE EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT TO SEE POPS INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET YESTERDAY WITH ONLY ISLTD
ACTIVITY...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONDITIONS WERE QUIET MUGGY. AT
6Z MOST SITES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY RANGING FROM UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER SOME WITH PWS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 BY EARLY
AFTN. IN ADDITION AN H85 THETA E SURGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. THE RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX
WILL BE MOVING TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUT THE
AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
LIFT/SUPPORT...INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SCT AFTN CONVECTION TODAY.

HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND MID LVL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND EVEN DEEPEN BY SUN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE DAY. BY SUN THE DEEPENING TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA.

SUN AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE IN A WET PATTERN. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BASICALLY AGREE
(OF COURSE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES) THAT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
COULD EVEN DIG INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WOULD BASICALLY KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN BUT LUCKILY IT SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORM INTENSITY DOWN. SO NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR MAINLY A WET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. /CAB/

AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE LIFTING AS
AN INVERSION MIXES OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET LATER
TODAY...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO BE VERY TRANSITORY AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE TO SHOW ANY IN 12Z TAF PACK. VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AROUND
2SM IF THE MID LEVEL DECK CLEARS FOR A WHILE. BUT THIS 6K FT DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR LONG PERIODS.

MARINE... EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL KEEP A GENERAL SE
FLOW OVERALL.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  84  68 /  40  40  50  40
BTR  87  70  85  70 /  40  40  50  40
ASD  85  71  85  71 /  40  40  30  30
MSY  86  73  85  72 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  84  73  85  72 /  40  30  30  20
PQL  85  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 291434
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
934 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO
MAKE NOTE OF. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN FOR LATE EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT TO SEE POPS INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET YESTERDAY WITH ONLY ISLTD
ACTIVITY...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONDITIONS WERE QUIET MUGGY. AT
6Z MOST SITES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY RANGING FROM UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER SOME WITH PWS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 BY EARLY
AFTN. IN ADDITION AN H85 THETA E SURGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. THE RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX
WILL BE MOVING TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUT THE
AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
LIFT/SUPPORT...INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SCT AFTN CONVECTION TODAY.

HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND MID LVL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND EVEN DEEPEN BY SUN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE DAY. BY SUN THE DEEPENING TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA.

SUN AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE IN A WET PATTERN. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BASICALLY AGREE
(OF COURSE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES) THAT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
COULD EVEN DIG INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WOULD BASICALLY KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN BUT LUCKILY IT SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORM INTENSITY DOWN. SO NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR MAINLY A WET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. /CAB/

AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE LIFTING AS
AN INVERSION MIXES OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET LATER
TODAY...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO BE VERY TRANSITORY AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE TO SHOW ANY IN 12Z TAF PACK. VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AROUND
2SM IF THE MID LEVEL DECK CLEARS FOR A WHILE. BUT THIS 6K FT DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR LONG PERIODS.

MARINE... EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL KEEP A GENERAL SE
FLOW OVERALL.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  84  68 /  40  40  50  40
BTR  87  70  85  70 /  40  40  50  40
ASD  85  71  85  71 /  40  40  30  30
MSY  86  73  85  72 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  84  73  85  72 /  40  30  30  20
PQL  85  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
00004000
 THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...BUMPING UP POPS IN SE TX
THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POPS AND TEMPS...SO
WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARDS SE TX HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATES BPT AND LCH
FOR MRNG STORMS. WILL MONITOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH TO MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS/WINDS/AND LIGHTNING ISSUES
FOR THIS NEXT LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  40  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  50  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDER
00004000
STORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR EDGING INTO NE TX NOW WITH VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE ARKLATEX
TERMINALS. LIGHT...BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTED
ROUNDS OF TSTMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.
GUSTY SFC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE S/SW 20-40KTS ON UP
AND WILL BACK TO NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE ON SAT WITH FROPA.
OUTLOOK...DAYBREAK BR/CIGS BUT JUST LATE DAY ISOLD TSTMS SUN/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

24/06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291151
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARDS SE TX HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATES BPT AND LCH
FOR MRNG STORMS. WILL MONITOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH TO MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS/WINDS/AND LIGHTNING ISSUES
FOR THIS NEXT LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  40  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 291151
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARDS SE TX HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATES BPT AND LCH
FOR MRNG STORMS. WILL MONITOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH TO MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS/WINDS/AND LIGHTNING ISSUES
FOR THIS NEXT LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  40  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE
000023BD
S FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 291058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290832
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  40  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290812
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET YESTERDAY WITH ONLY ISLTD
ACTIVITY...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONDITIONS WERE QUIET MUGGY. AT
6Z MOST SITES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY RANGING FROM UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER SOME WITH PWS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 BY EARLY
AFTN. IN ADDITION AN H85 THETA E SURGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. THE RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX
WILL BE MOVING TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUT THE
AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
LIFT/SUPPORT...INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SCT AFTN CONVECTION TODAY.

HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND MID LVL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND EVEN DEEPEN BY SUN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE DAY. BY SUN THE DEEPENING TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA.

SUN AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE IN A WET PATTERN. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BASICALLY AGREE
(OF COURSE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES) THAT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
COULD EVEN DIG INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WOULD BASICALLY KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN BUT LUCKILY IT SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORM INTENSITY DOWN. SO NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR MAINLY A WET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE LIFTING AS
AN INVERSION MIXES OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
00004000
 ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET LATER
TODAY...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO BE VERY TRANSITORY AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE TO SHOW ANY IN 12Z TAF PACK. VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AROUND
2SM IF THE MID LEVEL DECK CLEARS FOR A WHILE. BUT THIS 6K FT DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR LONG PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE... EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL KEEP A GENERAL SE
FLOW OVERALL.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  84  68 /  40  30  50  40
BTR  87  70  85  70 /  50  30  50  40
ASD  85  71  85  71 /  40  20  30  30
MSY  86  73  85  72 /  50  20  40  30
GPT  84  73  85  72 /  40  20  30  20
PQL  85  70  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB

000
FXUS64 KLIX 290812
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET YESTERDAY WITH ONLY ISLTD
ACTIVITY...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONDITIONS WERE QUIET MUGGY. AT
6Z MOST SITES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY RANGING FROM UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER SOME WITH PWS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 BY EARLY
AFTN. IN ADDITION AN H85 THETA E SURGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. THE RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX
WILL BE MOVING TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUT THE
AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
LIFT/SUPPORT...INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SCT AFTN CONVECTION TODAY.

HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND MID LVL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND EVEN DEEPEN BY SUN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE DAY. BY SUN THE DEEPENING TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA.

SUN AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE IN A WET PATTERN. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BASICALLY AGREE
(OF COURSE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES) THAT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
COULD EVEN DIG INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WOULD BASICALLY KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN BUT LUCKILY IT SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORM INTENSITY DOWN. SO NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR MAINLY A WET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE LIFTING AS
AN INVERSION MIXES OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET LATER
TODAY...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO BE VERY TRANSITORY AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE TO SHOW ANY IN 12Z TAF PACK. VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AROUND
2SM IF THE MID LEVEL DECK CLEARS FOR A WHILE. BUT THIS 6K FT DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR LONG PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE... EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL KEEP A GENERAL SE
FLOW OVERALL.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  84  68 /  40  30  50  40
BTR  87  70  85  70 /  50  30  50  40
ASD  85  71  85  71 /  40  20  30  30
MSY  86  73  85  72 /  50  20  40  30
GPT  84  73  85  72 /  40  20  30  20
PQL  85  70  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SOLID CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...PROVIDING A MAJOR
WEATHER HAZARD FOR EAST...WEST AVIATION TRAFFIC THIS EVENING.
LATEST TRENDS INDICATED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE SOLID LINE
SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME. BY 08Z THE LINE SHOULD BE
ALONG A KDEQ TO KTYR LINE REACHING A KELD...KSHV...KLFK LINE BTWN
10Z AND 12Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MOST
CONVECTION ENDING OR MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SOLID CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...PROVIDING A MAJOR
WEATHER HAZARD FOR EAST...WEST AVIATION TRAFFIC THIS EVENING.
LATEST TRENDS INDICATED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE SOLID LINE
SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME. BY 08Z THE LINE SHOULD BE
ALONG A KDEQ TO KTYR LINE REACHING A KELD...KSHV...KLFK LINE BTWN
10Z AND 12Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MOST
CONVECTION ENDING OR MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SOLID CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...PROVIDING A MAJOR
WEATHER HAZARD FOR EAST...WEST AVIATION TRAFFIC THIS EVENING.
LATEST TRENDS INDICATED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE SOLID LINE
SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME. BY 08Z THE LINE SHOULD BE
ALONG A KDEQ TO KTYR LINE REACHING A KELD...KSHV...KLFK LINE BTWN
10Z AND 12Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MOST
CONVECTION ENDING OR MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SOLID CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...PROVIDING A MAJOR
WEATHER HAZARD FOR EAST...WEST AVIATION TRAFFIC THIS EVENING.
LATEST TRENDS INDICATED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE SOLID LINE
SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME. BY 08Z THE LINE SHOULD BE
ALONG A KDEQ TO KTYR LINE REACHING A KELD...KSHV...KLFK LINE BTWN
10Z AND 12Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MOST
CONVECTION ENDING OR MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARL
00004000
Y EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NON
00004000
E.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EYES ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DOWN THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. AT THE MOMENT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE LINE ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME
WEAKENING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PICKING UP
SPEED. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FAR OFF FROM LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKENS THE PORTION OF THE LINE THAT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 29/11Z...WITH THE BEST CONVECTION STAYING OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH AS EARLY AS 29/12Z AT KBPT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS
FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 29/17Z WITH
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290230
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290230
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE A
00004000
ND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 290230
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
930 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE NORTH TEXAS CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND MIGRATES TOWARD
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE LINE TO PUSH DOWN INTO HGX AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE NORTHERN END APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
BY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT GO TO OVERBOARD.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND READJUST IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  30  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
857 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT GENERATED ALONG WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTRIBUTED TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES DOWN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WINN PARISH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST. QUESTION IS WHETHER CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON TYLER/LUFKIN. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKING ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF LINE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS LINE DISSIPATES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  66  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
805 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL END BY
03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...
ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION IS
INHIBITING STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE OF TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH FOR SOME
REASON LOOSES IT AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF N/C TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE ORIENTED
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
VARIETY IN THE EAST. ALL PROGS HAVE THIS WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY
AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS FOR FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO NE TX/SW AR/NW LA FRI NIGHT/SAT AND STALLS OUT. COLD FRONT AT
THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUR WAY AND
STALLS OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WELL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN THAT THIS STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS OCCURS IN RELATION TO OUR VICINITY COULD
RESULT IN A VERY WET WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...TO ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY IN THE
WEST. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF TO OUR
WEST...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS WOULD BE THE END RESULT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  67  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
805 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL END BY
03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...
ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/14/

&&
00004000

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION IS
INHIBITING STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE OF TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH FOR SOME
REASON LOOSES IT AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF N/C TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE ORIENTED
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
VARIETY IN THE EAST. ALL PROGS HAVE THIS WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY
AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS FOR FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO NE TX/SW AR/NW LA FRI NIGHT/SAT AND STALLS OUT. COLD FRONT AT
THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUR WAY AND
STALLS OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WELL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN THAT THIS STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS OCCURS IN RELATION TO OUR VICINITY COULD
RESULT IN A VERY WET WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...TO ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY IN THE
WEST. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF TO OUR
WEST...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS WOULD BE THE END RESULT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  67  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
805 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL END BY
03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...
ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION IS
INHIBITING STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE OF TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH FOR SOME
REASON LOOSES IT AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF N/C TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE ORIENTED
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
VARIETY IN THE EAST. ALL PROGS HAVE THIS WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY
AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS FOR FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO NE TX/SW AR/NW LA FRI NIGHT/SAT AND STALLS OUT. COLD FRONT AT
THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUR WAY AND
STALLS OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WELL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN THAT THIS STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS OCCURS IN RELATION TO OUR VICINITY COULD
RESULT IN A VERY WET WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...TO ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY IN THE
WEST. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF TO OUR
WEST...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS WOULD BE THE END RESULT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  67  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
805 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL END BY
03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...
ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION IS
INHIBITING STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE OF TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH FOR SOME
REASON LOOSES IT AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF N/C TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE ORIENTED
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
VARIETY IN THE EAST. ALL PROGS HAVE THIS WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY
AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS FOR FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO NE TX/SW AR/NW LA FRI NIGHT/SAT AND STALLS OUT. COLD FRONT AT
THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUR WAY AND
STALLS OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WELL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN THAT THIS STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS OCCURS IN RELATION TO OUR VICINITY COULD
RESULT IN A VERY WET WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...TO ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY IN THE
WEST. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF TO OUR
WEST...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS WOULD BE THE END RESULT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  67  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 290105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
805 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL END BY
03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...
ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG. THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS AND
MOUNT PLEASANT TO NEAR TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...MOVING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION IS
INHIBITING STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATTM
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIE OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
STATE OF TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH FOR SOME
REASON LOOSES IT AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF N/C TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE PREDAWN/DAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE ORIENTED
HIGHER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
VARIETY IN THE EAST. ALL PROGS HAVE THIS WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY
AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO
THIRDS FOR FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO NE TX/SW AR/NW LA FRI NIGHT/SAT AND STALLS OUT. COLD FRONT AT
THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUR WAY AND
STALLS OUT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WELL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE AND MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN THAT THIS STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. JUST WHERE THIS OCCURS IN RELATION TO OUR VICINITY COULD
RESULT IN A VERY WET WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK...TO ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY IN THE
WEST. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF TO OUR
WEST...THEN MUCH HIGHER POPS WOULD BE THE END RESULT FOR A MUCH
LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  86  69  83 /  30  60  50  60
MLU  69  88  69  84 /  30  50  50  60
DEQ  67  82  67  80 /  40  60  50  60
TXK  69  84  68  82 /  30  60  50  60
ELD  67  86  69  82 /  30  50  50  60
TYR  72  83  69  82 /  40  60  50  60
GGG  72  85  69  83 /  40  60  50  60
LFK  71  86  70  86 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED
00004000
 SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  10  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  10  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  10  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  10  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  10  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  10  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KAEX...WILL
PLACE VCTS IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL 29/01Z WHEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN GO TO THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS IT AS IT NEARS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP AT MVFR
LEVELS FOR PERIODS OF TIME BETWEEN 29/10Z-29/14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
ON FRIDAY SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...SO
WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 29/18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONVECTION
LIMITED TO A FEW PALTRY SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROF
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AIDING IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND ONLINE SPC WRF SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING QLCS...BUT WEAKEN PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. CARRIED A SMALL POP OVER EAST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS IN THE EVENT IT REMAINS MORE COHERENT THAN FCST
AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THIS SHORTWAVE IS FCST
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTING EAST TWD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO LIFT OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
CUTTING OFF OVER LOUISIANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE
TROF ALONG WITH MSTR POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SFC
FRONT PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TWD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVERHEAD...ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  70  83 /  10  50  40  70
LCH  74  87  72  86 /  10  40  20  60
LFT  73  86  72  85 /  10  50  20  60
BPT  74  86  73  86 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...04

      
      

  
    
  
  
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