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0000BE31000
FXUS64 KSHV 102353
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
553 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 11/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS. SOME THIN CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL SE INTO THE REGION BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SW WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM 5-10 KTS...VEERING WESTWARD ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AT
TXK/ELD AND THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS.
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT..GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE N/NE OVER TIME WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY
THE END OF THE PD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
SFC LOW DESCENDS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVHD
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
US FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH AS THURSDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THESE COLD FRONTS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START...AS STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF FRIDAY`S FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...SLY FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN BY SUNDAY...AS NW FLOW ALOFT
WANES AND BECOMES MORE WLY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHWRS WILL
EVEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS...AS A COLD FRONT
DEVELOPS IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY IN
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND WILL BRING SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ATTM WITH REGARD
TO STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE EURO DEEPER AND MORE DEFINED
THAN THE EURO. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
THE OVERALL FORECAST ATTM. LATEST MODEL BLENDS KICK OUR POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT HAVE HELD OFF AT 50 POPS FOR NOW.
GREATER MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL LIKELY WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN FUTURE
FCSTS.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FCST FOR THE END OF THE FCST PD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING US BEYOND THE
SEVEN DAY PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  42  70  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  37  66  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  43  66  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  41  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  46  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  47  72  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 102323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LT AND
VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA AND NORTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARM UP...WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S.

A WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED NWD
LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY RAISES THE PROSPECT OF FOG
FORMATION...WHICH IS STRONGLY INDICATED IN THE NAM/HIRESW/SREF
MODELS. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HRS IN THE REGION OF HIGHEST SREF PROGS. HELD OFF INCLUSION OVER
ANY MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS PROGGED DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
RIGHT AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SSTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COOLISH AREA AROUND VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.

A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SAT...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
EXPANSIVE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS FCST SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
SUN. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE TIMING OF PACIFIC ENERGY
SLATED TO APPROACH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTING CONSENSUS POPS INCREASING TO HIGH END
CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUE AND WED.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BOUT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  74  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  46  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  48  76  54  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 102143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA AND NORTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARM UP...WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S.

A WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED NWD
LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY RAISES THE PROSPECT OF FOG
FORMATION...WHICH IS STRONGLY INDICATED IN THE NAM/HIRESW/SREF
MODELS. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HRS IN THE REGION OF HIGHEST SREF PROGS. HELD OFF INCLUSION OVER
ANY MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS PROGGED DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
RIGHT AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SSTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COOLISH AREA AROUND VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.

A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SAT...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
EXPANSIVE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS FCST SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
SUN. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE TIMING OF PACIFIC ENERGY
SLATED TO APPROACH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTING CONSENSUS POPS INCREASING TO HIGH END
CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUE AND WED.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BOUT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  74  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  46  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  48  76  54  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 102118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
318 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...

THE BIGGEST CHANGE OCCURRING OVER THE SHORT TERM IS A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WARMING WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION...INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS USHERING
IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE EACH DAY OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING OVER THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND LOWS COOLING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FORCE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOME COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS
ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED CONCERNING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NEXT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG
FORCING WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG 110 KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT
INTERACT.  A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE MID- LEVELS WILL PROMOTE
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASING...PW VALUES SHOULD RISE NEARLY HALF AN INCH
BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK
VERY STEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR COMPLETELY OVER ALL OF THE
CWA. EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...THE AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS IT HAS
A PACIFIC BASED ORIGIN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 DEGREES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS
AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 3 TO 4 FEET OR LESS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS MAY OCCUR BEGINNING
TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS COULD PUSH WINDS BACK INTO EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALSO INCREASE SEAS
TO AROUND 5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A GENERAL PERIOD
OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IS EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUNDS AND LAKES SHOULD SEE
THE NORTHEAST FLOW REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. BY MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DECENT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  73  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  42  75  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  39  71  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  47  72  55  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  41  69  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  69  48  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KSHV 102105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
SFC LOW DESCENDS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS IT MOVES OVHD
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
US FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH AS THURSDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD OF THESE COLD FRONTS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START...AS STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF FRIDAY`S FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...SLY FLOW IS FCST TO RETURN BY SUNDAY...AS NW FLOW ALOFT
WANES AND BECOMES MORE WLY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. A FEW SHWRS WILL
EVEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS...AS A COLD FRONT
DEVELOPS IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY IN
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND WILL BRING SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ATTM WITH REGARD
TO STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE EURO DEEPER AND MORE DEFINED
THAN THE EURO. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
THE OVERALL FORECAST ATTM. LATEST MODEL BLENDS KICK OUR POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT HAVE HELD OFF AT 50 POPS FOR NOW.
GREATER MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL LIKELY WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN FUTURE
FCSTS.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FCST FOR THE END OF THE FCST PD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING US BEYOND THE
SEVEN DAY PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 10/18Z TAF PERIOD...AS
SKC WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME THIN CIRRUS BEGIN TO
SPILL SE INTO THE REGION BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER SE TX/LA AS OF LATE
MORNING WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN LT/VRB WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE SW AND INCREASING TO 8-12KTS
AREAWIDE BY MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BACK AND DECOUPLE SLIGHTLY
AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL REMAIN SSW 6-11KTS OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  42  70  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  37  66  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  43  66  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  41  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  46  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  47  72  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  46  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 101824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.22 INCHES. A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
BASED INVERSION TO 440 FT AT 39F...ISOTHERMAL TO 1600
FT...ADIABATIC TO 3KFT...DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO 8700 FT...THEN
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO 11.4KFT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES TO FIRST
TROPOPAUSE AT 239 MB/10.8KFT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -56.7C...THEN
ISOTHERMAL TO SECOND TROPOPAUSE AT 110 MB/15.7KFT WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -67.3C. WINDS ARE N 15 KT NEAR THE SURFACE THEN NW
35 TO 95 KT REST OF THE WAY UP. PEAK WIND 265/93KT AT 40.0KFT.

BALLOON BURST ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...100 MILES
DOWNRANGE OF STATION...AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF OVERNIGHT...IT WAS
ANOTHER QUIET COOL NIGHT. SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR. IN FACT SKIES
LOOKED CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AL/GA BORDER
OTHERWISE CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN GULF.

NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FCST. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOL AIR
IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SWRLY LL FLOW THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND LL TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY.
H925 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM 2-4C TODAY TO 12-13C FOR THU AND FRI.
THIS MODERATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND THUS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT THE WAA AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THU MORNING
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WITH
LL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THERE ARE
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. ALL MDLS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A TOUCH COMPARED TO THE PREV EVNG. ECMWF IS STILL THE FASTER OF THE
MDLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND APPROACH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCE ON MON.

FIRST THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
SAT. AS PREV FCSTER MENTIONED A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE IN THE MAIN
FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE LATE FRI AND IT WILL
DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT. LL TEMPS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SAT AFTN EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS THE
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK HITTING AIRMASS AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN. MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS QUICKLY MODERATING. IN
ADDITION THE MID LVLS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TEMPORARILY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP WITH PWS FINALLY CLIMBING ABV 1" BY
MON. WITH THAT VALENTINES DAY LOOKS UNEVENTFUL FROM A WEATHER
STANDPOINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME CLOUDS. HEADING INTO MON
A STRONGER S/W EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY WITH A WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOWERING
HGHTS DUE TO THE S/W...AND A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW THERE COULD BE SOME TSRA EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. IF THE
SFC LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ON THE OTHER
HAND IF THE SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THEN
IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE AREA SEEING JUST A COOL RAIN. THAT SAID
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE WILL MOVE BACK UNDER DRY NW FLOW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN SO
WE WILL NOT QUIET THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TE/

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY AND ALL FLAGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK
TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD CAUSE ANOTHER
EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  40  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  43  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  54  47  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  44  68  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  53  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 101824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.22 INCHES. A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
BASED INVERSION TO 440 FT AT 39F...ISOTHERMAL TO 1600
FT...ADIABATIC TO 3KFT...DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO 8700 FT...THEN
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO 11.4KFT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES TO FIRST
TROPOPAUSE AT 239 MB/10.8KFT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -56.7C...THEN
ISOTHERMAL TO SECOND TROPOPAUSE AT 110 MB/15.7KFT WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -67.3C. WINDS ARE N 15 KT NEAR THE SURFACE THEN NW
35 TO 95 KT REST OF THE WAY UP. PEAK WIND 265/93KT AT 40.0KFT.

BALLOON BURST ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...100 MILES
DOWNRANGE OF STATION...AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF OVERNIGHT...IT WAS
ANOTHER QUIET COOL NIGHT. SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR. IN FACT SKIES
LOOKED CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AL/GA BORDER
OTHERWISE CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN GULF.

NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FCST. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOL AIR
IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SWRLY LL FLOW THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND LL TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY.
H925 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM 2-4C TODAY TO 12-13C FOR THU AND FRI.
THIS MODERATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND THUS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT THE WAA AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THU MORNING
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WITH
LL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THERE ARE
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. ALL MDLS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A TOUCH COMPARED TO THE PREV EVNG. ECMWF IS STILL THE FASTER OF THE
MDLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND APPROACH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCE ON MON.

FIRST THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
SAT. AS PREV FCSTER MENTIONED A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE IN THE MAIN
FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE LATE FRI AND IT WILL
DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT. LL TEMPS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SAT AFTN EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS THE
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK HITTING AIRMASS AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN. MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS QUICKLY MODERATING. IN
ADDITION THE MID LVLS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TEMPORARILY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP WITH PWS FINALLY CLIMBING ABV 1" BY
MON. WITH THAT VALENTINES DAY LOOKS UNEVENTFUL FROM A WEATHER
STANDPOINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME CLOUDS. HEADING INTO MON
A STRONGER S/W EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY WITH A WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOWERING
HGHTS DUE TO THE S/W...AND A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW THERE COULD BE SOME TSRA EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. IF THE
SFC LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ON THE OTHER
HAND IF THE SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THEN
IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE AREA SEEING JUST A COOL RAIN. THAT SAID
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE WILL MOVE BACK UNDER DRY NW FLOW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN SO
WE WILL NOT QUIET THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TE/

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY AND ALL FLAGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK
TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD CAUSE ANOTHER
EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  40  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  43  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  54  47  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  44  68  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  53  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES...AND FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DRY TREND CONTINUING SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WSWRLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES...AND FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DRY TREND CONTINUING SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WSWRLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES...AND FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DRY TREND CONTINUING SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WSWRLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 101720 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 10/18Z TAF PERIOD...AS
SKC WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME THIN CIRRUS BEGIN TO
SPILL SE INTO THE REGION BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER SE TX/LA AS OF LATE
MORNING WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN LT/VRB WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE SW AND INCREASING TO 8-12KTS
AREAWIDE BY MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BACK AND DECOUPLE SLIGHTLY
AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL REMAIN SSW 6-11KTS OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND A GOOD WARM UP TODAY INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS. FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS...SO WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED
00001069
 IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 101640
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND A GOOD WARM UP TODAY INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS. FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS...SO WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10/16Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/18Z. TYR/GGG COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 11/00Z. /05/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CON
00004000
US AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCING THE WARMING TREND AHEAD
OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY
BECOME QUASI STATIONARY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY.
THIS FIRST FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE NO MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIP SO THE ONLY
REAL IMPACT WILL BE TO COOL TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

DURING THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL WEAKEN
WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE USHERING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH THESE
RAIN CHANCES SO POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW AND LIMITED TIME
AVAILABLE TO BUILD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...I AM STILL HESITANT TO
BUY INTO WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH IN THE DAY 5-6 TIME
FRAME. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE COURSE RESOLUTION OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OR THEIR ATTEMPT TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE RATHER POTENT AND TIMED WELL
WITH THE FRONT SO PRECIP COVERAGE COULD VERY WELL BE HIGH...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM STILL MAKES ME DOUBT QPF AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS AFTER MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF RAIN...EVENTUALLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 101344
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
744 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.22 INCHES. A RATHER SHARP SURFACE
BASED INVERSION TO 440 FT AT 39F...ISOTHERMAL TO 1600
FT...ADIABATIC TO 3KFT...DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO 8700 FT...THEN
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO 11.4KFT THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES TO FIRST
TROPOPAUSE AT 239 MB/10.8KFT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -56.7C...THEN
ISOTHERMAL TO SECOND TROPOPAUSE AT 110 MB/15.7KFT WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -67.3C. WINDS ARE N 15 KT NEAR THE SURFACE THEN NW
35 TO 95 KT REST OF THE WAY UP. PEAK WIND 265/93KT AT 40.0KFT.

BALLOON BURST ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...100 MILES
DOWNRANGE OF STATION...AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF OVERNIGHT...IT WAS
ANOTHER QUIET COOL NIGHT. SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR. IN FACT SKIES
LOOKED CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AL/GA BORDER
OTHERWISE CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN GULF.

NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FCST. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOL AIR
IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SWRLY LL FLOW THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND LL TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY.
H925 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM 2-4C TODAY TO 12-13C FOR THU AND FRI.
THIS MODERATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND THUS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT THE WAA AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THU MORNING
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WITH
LL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THERE ARE
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. ALL MDLS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A TOUCH COMPARED TO THE PREV EVNG. ECMWF IS STILL THE FASTER OF THE
MDLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND APPROACH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCE ON MON.

FIRST THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
SAT. AS PREV FCSTER MENTIONED A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE IN THE MAIN
FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE LATE FRI AND IT WILL
DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT. LL TEMPS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SAT AFTN EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS THE
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK HITTING AIRMASS AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN. MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS QUICKLY MODERATING. IN
ADDITION THE MID LVLS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TEMPORARILY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP WITH PWS FINALLY CLIMBING ABV 1" BY
MON. WITH THAT VALENTINES DAY LOOKS UNEVENTFUL FROM A WEATHER
STANDPOINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME CLOUDS. HEADING INTO MON
A STRONGER S/W EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY WITH A WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOWERING
HGHTS DUE TO THE S/W...AND A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW THERE COULD BE SOME TSRA EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. IF THE
SFC LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ON THE OTHER
HAND IF THE SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THEN
IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE AREA SEEING JUST A COOL RAIN. THAT SAID
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE WILL MOVE BACK UNDER DRY NW FLOW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN SO
WE WILL NOT QUIET THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TE/

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY AND ALL FLAGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK
TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD CAUSE ANOTHER
EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  40  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  43  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  54  47  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  44  68  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  53  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 101127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10/16Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/18Z. TYR/GGG COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 11/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 101127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10/16Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/18Z. TYR/GGG COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 11/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 101127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10/16Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/18Z. TYR/GGG COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 11/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101119
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101119
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 101119
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND 
00004000
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 100953
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
     TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100918
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
318 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCING THE WARMING TREND AHEAD
OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY
BECOME QUASI STATIONARY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY.
THIS FIRST FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE NO MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIP SO THE ONLY
REAL IMPACT WILL BE TO COOL TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

DURING THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL WEAKEN
WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE USHERING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH THESE
RAIN CHANCES SO POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW AND LIMITED TIME
AVAILABLE TO BUILD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...I AM STILL HESITANT TO
BUY INTO WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH IN THE DAY 5-6 TIME
FRAME. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE COURSE RESOLUTION OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OR THEIR ATTEMPT TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE RATHER POTENT AND TIMED WELL
WITH THE FRONT SO PRECIP COVERAGE COULD VERY WELL BE HIGH...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM STILL MAKES ME DOUBT QPF AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS AFTER MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF RAIN...EVENTUALLY.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
303 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF OVERNIGHT...IT WAS
ANOTHER QUIET COOL NIGHT. SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR. IN FACT SKIES
LOOKED CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AL/GA BORDER
OTHERWISE CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN GULF.

NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FCST. ONE MORE SHOT OF COOL AIR
IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE AREA IN THE MID 50S. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SWRLY LL FLOW THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND LL TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY.
H925 TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM 2-4C TODAY TO 12-13C FOR THU AND FRI.
THIS MODERATION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND THUS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT THE WAA AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THU MORNING
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WITH
LL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT THERE ARE
SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. ALL MDLS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A TOUCH COMPARED TO THE PREV EVNG. ECMWF IS STILL THE FASTER OF THE
MDLS AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND APPROACH WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCE ON MON.

FIRST THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
SAT. AS PREV FCSTER MENTIONED A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE IN THE MAIN
FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE LATE FRI AND IT WILL
DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT. LL TEMPS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SAT AFTN EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS THE
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE VERY LOW
EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK HITTING AIRMASS AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN. MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS QUICKLY MODERATING. IN
ADDITION THE MID LVLS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TEMPORARILY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO MOISTEN UP WITH PWS FINALLY CLIMBING ABV 1" BY
MON. WITH THAT VALENTINES DAY LOOKS UNEVENTFUL FROM A WEATHER
STANDPOINT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME CLOUDS. HEADING INTO MON
A STRONGER S/W EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY WITH A WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...LOWERING
HGHTS DUE TO THE S/W...AND A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW THERE COULD BE SOME TSRA EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN. IF THE
SFC LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. ON THE OTHER
HAND IF THE SFC LOW MOVES RIGHT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THEN
IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE AREA SEEING JUST A COOL RAIN. THAT SAID
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE WILL MOVE BACK UNDER DRY NW FLOW.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN SO
WE WILL NOT QUIET THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TE/

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY AND ALL FLAGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK
TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD CAUSE ANOTHER
EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  40  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  43  70  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  54  47  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  44  68  53 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  53  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: TE

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK...NW SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE SFC HIGH ADVANCES FARTHER EAST...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK...NW SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE SFC HIGH ADVANCES FARTHER EAST...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100547
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SHORT TERM. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK...NW SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE SFC HIGH ADVANCES FARTHER EAST...RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/PO
0000235B
PS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100524
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE EASED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED OVER PROTECTED WATERS.
HAVE DROPPED TIDAL LAKES HEADLINES ENTIRELY...AND CARRYING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE SOUNDS. EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG. MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN ASSESS DROPPING MORE FROM
THE FORECAST. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100409
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY 
00004000
WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/19/12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100409
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THINNING CIRRUS ON APPROACH IS A LITTLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES
AND WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERALL. SOME CALM SPOTS WHERE SHELTERED
ARE IN THE MID 30S ALREADY. MOST ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH 5
TO 10 MPH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS...BUT NOT TO
EXPECTED LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO ANY OF OUR TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL PRECLUDES AN UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/19/12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE EASED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED OVER PROTECTED WATERS.
HAVE DROPPED TIDAL LAKES HEADLINES ENTIRELY...AND CARRYING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE SOUNDS. EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG. MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN ASSESS DROPPING MORE FROM
THE FORECAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE EASED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED OVER PROTECTED WATERS.
HAVE DROPPED TIDAL LAKES HEADLINES ENTIRELY...AND CARRYING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE SOUNDS. EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG. MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN ASSESS DROPPING MORE FROM
THE FORECAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 F
00004000
EET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE EASED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED OVER PROTECTED WATERS.
HAVE DROPPED TIDAL LAKES HEADLINES ENTIRELY...AND CARRYING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE SOUNDS. EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO STRONG. MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN ASSESS DROPPING MORE FROM
THE FORECAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 100320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD OVER LA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT A LIGHT FREEZE WITH TEMPS 30-32
POSSIBLE N OF I-10...WITH MID/UPPER 3OS ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON THE COAST. ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...NO CHANGES TO TIMING OF ENDING OF SCA
ACROSS THE N MARINE ZONES...KEEPING SCA FOR THE 20-60NM MARINE
ZONES OFF OF CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA. LOW WATER
ADVISORY ALLOW TO EXPIRE AS WELL...AS HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THE DIMINISHED WINDS ARE RETURNING THE WATER LEVELS BACK TO
NORMAL.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW DURING WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS SINKS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

THE WARMING WILL ACCELERATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE REGION FALLS
WITHIN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME BETWEEN A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR
PERHAPS LIMP TWD THE COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY WASHING
OUT. A MORE NOTABLE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A
SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE
RANGE.

13

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. WHILE
LOW WATER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST...THEY
CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS INDICATED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. THESE SITES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BEYOND THE TIME PF PREDICTED LOW TIDE...THUS
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH TIDAL LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE
-1.0 FT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  58  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  60  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  57  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  63  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452-
     455-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL AL
00004000
SO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE 
00004000
GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100041
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY A DRY ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE
LAPSE RATE UP TO ABOUT 5900 FEET. THE AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY DRY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG AND THE 0-2KM WINDS AVERAGED AROUND
35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 112 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41100 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 18 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF PETIT BOIS ISLAND 87 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE ASCENT LASTED 88 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OU
00004000
R FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 092334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS SINKS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

THE WARMING WILL ACCELERATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE REGION FALLS
WITHIN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME BETWEEN A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR
PERHAPS LIMP TWD THE COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY WASHING
OUT. A MORE NOTABLE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A
SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE
RANGE.

13

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. WHILE
LOW WATER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST...THEY
CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS INDICATED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. THESE SITES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BEYOND THE TIME PF PREDICTED LOW TIDE...THUS
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH TIDAL LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE
-1.0 FT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  58  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  60  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  57  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  63  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435-450.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 092334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS SINKS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

THE WARMING WILL ACCELERATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE REGION FALLS
WITHIN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME BETWEEN A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR
PERHAPS LIMP TWD THE COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY WASHING
OUT. A MORE NOTABLE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A
SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE
RANGE.

13

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. WHILE
LOW WATER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST...THEY
CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS INDICATED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. THESE SITES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BEYOND THE TIME PF PREDICTED LOW TIDE...THUS
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH TIDAL LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE
-1.0 FT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  58  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  60  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  57  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  63  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435-450.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 092334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NW WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS SINKS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

THE WARMING WILL ACCELERATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE REGION FALLS
WITHIN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME BETWEEN A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR
PERHAPS LIMP TWD THE COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY WASHING
OUT. A MORE NOTABLE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A
SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE
RANGE.

13

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. WHILE
LOW WATER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST...THEY
CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS INDICATED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. THESE SITES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BEYOND THE TIME PF PREDICTED LOW TIDE...THUS
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH TIDAL LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE
-1.0 FT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  58  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  60  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  57  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  63  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435-450.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 092200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS SINKS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF...WHICH
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COUPLED WITH A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO EASE OUT TO THE EAST...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

THE WARMING WILL ACCELERATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE REGION FALLS
WITHIN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME BETWEEN A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR
PERHAPS LIMP TWD THE COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY WASHING
OUT. A MORE NOTABLE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH PACIFIC ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND MON.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A
SMALL INCREASE IN POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON INTO THE LOW END CHANCE
RANGE.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION. WHILE
LOW WATER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ALONG THE COAST...THEY
CONTINUE WITHIN THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS INDICATED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. THESE SITES ARE
CURRENTLY AT OR JUST BEYOND THE TIME PF PREDICTED LOW TIDE...THUS
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH TIDAL LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE
-1.0 FT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. THE SUR
00004000
FACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  58  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  60  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  37  57  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  37  63  51  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ452-455-470.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435-450.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 092054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
254 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL KEEP
A DRY AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED TODAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY...THE
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ALOFT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURRING...AND WARMER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF AND MEXICAN PLATEAU...TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS WARM UP
OCCURS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A
RETURN TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTING
IN. HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND OVERNIGHTS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. THESE READINGS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ON MONDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS STILL INDICATE THAT THERE WILL
BE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

ON TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO REDEVELOP. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FRONTS IS
THAT THE AIRMASS MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PACIFIC
ORIGIN...THUS LACKING ANY TRUE COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE...WINDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR VARYING
TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF RELAXES. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO 4 TO 6 FEET
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS
DEVELOPING AND THEN PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET. A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD SLIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FROM NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PUSH SEAS BACK
INTO THE 3 TO 6 FEET RANGE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  28  54  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  56  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  55  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  54  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  29  54  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  28  54  37  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 092041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEA
00004000
R 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

06/12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

06/12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10 KFT FOR KTXK AND KELD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 10/00Z WHEN SPEEDS TAPER
OFF AND BECOME NEAR CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 4 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
INCREASING TO 7-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

06/12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091745
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 09/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RESULT. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET AND
MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING ENDS...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BE
LIGHT FROM LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST SFC DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO TREND IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/GUIDANCE.

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST
RANGING FROM -2.5 TO -3 FT MLLW. WE ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR THE
TIME OF PREDICTED LOW TIDE ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THESE READINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE -1.0 FT MLLW. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A PREDICTED LOW TIDE FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER
UPCOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY
LOWER THAN -1.0 FT MLLW. A FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE
ADVISORY HERE IS POSSIBLE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DURING THE DAY.  AREA 88D VWPS
ARE SHOWING NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG BUT BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET SO WILL DIMINISH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND 02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KLIX 091709
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1109 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDIITONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  27  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  33  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  53  38  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  52  30  54  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 091709
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1109 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDIITONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  27  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  33  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  53  38  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  52  30  54  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 091709
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1109 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. AFTER 00Z...THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF...WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDIITONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  27  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  33  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  53  38  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  52  30  54  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST SFC DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO TREND IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/GUIDANCE.

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST
RANGING FROM -2.5 TO -3 FT 
00004000
MLLW. WE ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR THE
TIME OF PREDICTED LOW TIDE ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THESE READINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE -1.0 FT MLLW. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A PREDICTED LOW TIDE FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER
UPCOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY
LOWER THAN -1.0 FT MLLW. A FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE
ADVISORY HERE IS POSSIBLE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DURING THE DAY.  AREA 88D VWPS
ARE SHOWING NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG BUT BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET SO WILL DIMINISH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND 02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST SFC DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO TREND IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/GUIDANCE.

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST
RANGING FROM -2.5 TO -3 FT MLLW. WE ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR THE
TIME OF PREDICTED LOW TIDE ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THESE READINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE -1.0 FT MLLW. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A PREDICTED LOW TIDE FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER
UPCOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY
LOWER THAN -1.0 FT MLLW. A FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE
ADVISORY HERE IS POSSIBLE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DURING THE DAY.  AREA 88D VWPS
ARE SHOWING NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG BUT BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET SO WILL DIMINISH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND 02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST SFC DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO TREND IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/GUIDANCE.

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT TIDAL READINGS ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA COAST
RANGING FROM -2.5 TO -3 FT MLLW. WE ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR THE
TIME OF PREDICTED LOW TIDE ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THESE READINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE -1.0 FT MLLW. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A PREDICTED LOW TIDE FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER
UPCOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY
LOWER THAN -1.0 FT MLLW. A FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE
ADVISORY HERE IS POSSIBLE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DURING THE DAY.  AREA 88D VWPS
ARE SHOWING NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG BUT BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET SO WILL DIMINISH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND 02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091641
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO
AREAWIDE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME CLOUDS IN OVER OUR NRN SECTIONS AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THESE AREAS AS NOTED ON THE VIS IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  53  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  56  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  59  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 091329
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
729 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS THIS MORNING AS FLIGHTS RESUME AFTER REPAIRS ON GROUND
EQUIPMENT MONDAY. VERY DRY SOUNDING WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.21 INCHES...TYPICAL OF A POLAR AIR MASS. A SHALLOW
SURFACE INVERSION IS NOTED TO ABOUT 700 FT...ADIABATIC TO BASE OF
A VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 5100 FT UP TO 12800 FT,
THEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ALOFT TO A VERY LOW POLAR TROPOPAUSE AT 372
MB...HIGHER TROPOPAUSE AT 218 MB. WINDS ARE NW TO W 35 TO 160KT
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. PEAK WIND 260/162KT AT 240MB/35KFT.

BALLOON BURST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GULF SHORES AL...120 MILES DOWNRANGE ESE...AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.5
MILES. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN A COOL QUIET NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S NEAR 40.

FCST REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST CONCERN
APPEARS TO BE WIND AGAIN TODAY. WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC WILL BE
STRONG AGAIN WITH H925 WINDS OF 30 KTS AND H85 UP TO 40 KTS. COMBINE
THAT WITH PERSISTENT CAA IN THE LL...A LOT OF SUN...AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALMOST UP TO H7 ARE ONCE AGAIN PROVIDING A
PRIME SETUP FOR EFFICIENT MIXING. 0-3KM WINDS COULD BE AROUND
35-40KTS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AGAIN
TODAY. MAX WIND GUSTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
WITH 45 AND 46 MPH AT BTR AND MSY RESPECTIVELY. THAT SAID NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND GUSTS QUIET AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY BUT STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER WIND ADV TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THU MORNING BUT ON THU AND FRI...TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WRLY FLOW IN THE LL AND THUS INCREASE THE LL TEMPS. HIGHS ON THU
AND FRI WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AGREE WITH THE PATTERN
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE ECMWF HAS SPED THINGS UP
WITH RESPECT TO RETURN OF RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON.
HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSER TO PREV FCST WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT GFS/GFES
00004000
/AND PREV ECMWF.

WHILE WE ARE STILL UNDER NW FLOW SAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SAT. THIS WILL COOL THINGS OFF
SAT BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT QUICKLY SLIDES TO THE
EAST WITH TEMPS ALREADY MODERATING EARLY SUN. THE MID LVL PATTERN
DOES TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY SUN BUT
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ERN CONUS L/W
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
MON AND THIS FRONT COULD FINALLY BRING THE RETURN OF RAIN. WITH THE
CNTR OF THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD DEEP SRLY FLOW IN THE LL WILL FINALLY HELP
TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MON.
PWS FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABV AN INCH AND THIS COMBINING WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND LOWERING HGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL SITES. /TE/

MARINE...STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALL FLAGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY WEAK WED NIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD
CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY/GALE WARNING
             WIND ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  27  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  33  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  53  38  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  52  30  54  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH 10/00Z. WINDS TO BECOME 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  53  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  52  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  52  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-
     153.

&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DURING THE DAY.  AREA 88D VWPS
ARE SHOWING NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG BUT BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET SO WILL DIMINISH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

AVIATION...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 091028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE DEW
POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WEATHER FACTORS WILL
ELEVATED THE FIRE THREAT AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

BY TOMORROW MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO THE
REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE GULF DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK INTO THE 30S.

TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO JUMP INTO THE 40S THEN INTO THE 50S BY
FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH SUNNY SKIES LOOKING FOR 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56 
000069DA
 33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  37  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  56  38  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  38  64  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ452-455-
     470-472-475.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
     432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 091005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS WHILE A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HOLD
STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
DURING THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL COLD
FRONTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE STILL QUITE STRONG.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD BRING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUITE ABRUPTLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MONDAY`S VALUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE EXTREMELY DRY SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLED
BY A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW.

DURING THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST FINALLY
MOVES AWAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WEAKENS. A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE
00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME FOR DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BUILD. SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT I DECIDED
TO MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN EVEN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING DAYS
8-10.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  54  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  30  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  54  30  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  58  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  57  32  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  60  34  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-
     153.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090929
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN A COOL QUIET NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S NEAR 40.

FCST REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST CONCERN
APPEARS TO BE WIND AGAIN TODAY. WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC WILL BE
STRONG AGAIN WITH H925 WINDS OF 30 KTS AND H85 UP TO 40 KTS. COMBINE
THAT WITH PERSISTENT CAA IN THE LL...A LOT OF SUN...AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALMOST UP TO H7 ARE ONCE AGAIN PROVIDING A
PRIME SETUP FOR EFFICIENT MIXING. 0-3KM WINDS COULD BE AROUND
35-40KTS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AGAIN
TODAY. MAX WIND GUSTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
WITH 45 AND 46 MPH AT BTR AND MSY RESPECTIVELY. THAT SAID NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND GUSTS QUIET AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY BUT STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER WIND ADV TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THU MORNING BUT ON THU AND FRI...TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SLIDES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WRLY FLOW IN THE LL AND THUS INCREASE THE LL TEMPS. HIGHS ON THU
AND FRI WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AGREE WITH THE PATTERN
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE ECMWF HAS SPED THINGS UP
WITH RESPECT TO RETURN OF RAIN AND THE COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON.
HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSER TO PREV FCST WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT GFS/GFES/AND PREV ECMWF.

WHILE WE ARE STILL UNDER NW FLOW SAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SAT. THIS WILL COOL THINGS OFF
SAT BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT QUICKLY SLIDES TO THE
EAST WITH TEMPS ALREADY MODERATING EARLY SUN. THE MID LVL PATTERN
DOES TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY SUN BUT
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ERN CONUS L/W
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY
MON AND THIS FRONT COULD FINALLY BRING THE RETURN OF RAIN. WITH THE
CNTR OF THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD DEEP SRLY FLOW IN THE LL WILL FINALLY HELP
TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MON.
PWS FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABV AN INCH AND THIS COMBINING WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND LOWERING HGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MON. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL SITES. /TE/

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALL FLAGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CAUTION STATEMENTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY WEAK WED NIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BY THURSDAY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER MAINLY OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND AND COULD
CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. /TE/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.
             MONITORING MARINE ADVISORY/GALE WARNING
             WIND ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  27  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  33  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  53  38  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  52  30  54  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ532-534.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ534.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: TE

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090528
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  51  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  52  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  33  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  32  52  31  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090528
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  51  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  52  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  33  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  32  52  31  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ534.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 090502
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
NW TO WNW WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED NICELY THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 6-12KTS. AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...
EXPECT SUFFICIENT MIXING WILL MAXIMIZE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE END RESULT BEING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS 22-30KTS ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN BEYOND 11/00Z AS WAS THE
CASE EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS LATE EVENING. OUR WINDS ARE
RUNNING 5-10 MPH AND MAY DO SO ALL NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL AND BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEW POINTS
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 090400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS LATE EVENING. OUR WINDS ARE
RUNNING 5-10 MPH AND MAY DO SO ALL NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL AND BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEW POINTS
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
TO DROP LAKE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THE ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
SUNSET WAS AT 5:55 P.M. AND WHILE IT MAY TAKE A HOUR OR SO TO
SLACK GUSTS EVERYWHERE...THE SUPER LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET QUICKLY FROM THE
AFTERNOON 50S. THIS WILL BUILD AN ENVELOPE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION
WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OUR SFC FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30KTS
ON OUR VAD AT 2KFT. AND AS GUSTS SLACK...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
FOLLOW SUITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AS LATE AS 23Z WILL QUICKLY
DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR 10KTS
OR SO OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTER
15Z OR SO WITH SPEEDS NEAR 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 22-30KT
RANGE. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...AS WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN HALF. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JET STREAM TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK...AND
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL AID OUR TEMPS IN SOARING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...AND COOL US BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  51  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  33  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  55  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  58  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13/12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 090344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE FALLEN BELOW 10
KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS...BUT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NR FREEZING NORTH...MID 30S ALONG
I-10 AND NR 40 ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE. GUSTY NWLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS WINDS DECOUPLE. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY A WIND FORECAST THIS PERIOD. NW WINDS ~20-22 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN 8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ~15-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AFTER 15Z TUE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A DEEP ERN TROF
HELPING TO DRAW A COOL AND VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. DEEPLY MIXED DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX INLAND WITH DIURNAL
DECOUPLING...BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH OF A
RECOVERY TO SFC DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...AND KEPT LOWS TWD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD
DAY...WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY BUT STILL A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
IT APPEARS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW ALSO GIVES RISE TO LOW WATER
CONCERNS...AS TIDE LEVELS AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE TODAY AT SABINE
AND CALCASIEU PASSES FELL BELOW -1 FT MLLW. A REPEAT IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
FURTHER EVALUATE.

GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WED AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT...WITH THIS TREND ACCELERATING INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF...IMPARTING A WARM WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GLOBAL MODELS BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT SUN INTO MON WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT.

13

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT.
BUILDING SEAS ALONG WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND BAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  35  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  36  56  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  35  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-
     455-470-472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 090344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HAVE FALLEN BELOW 10
KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS...BUT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NR FREEZING NORTH...MID 30S ALONG
I-10 AND NR 40 ALONG THE COAST. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE. GUSTY NWLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS WINDS DECOUPLE. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY A WIND FORECAST THIS PERIOD. NW WINDS ~20-22 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT HOUR...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN 8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ~15-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AFTER 15Z TUE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A DEEP ERN TROF
HELPING TO DRAW A COOL AND VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. DEEPLY MIXED DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX INLAND WITH DIURNAL
DECOUPLING...BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH OF A
RECOVERY TO SFC DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...AND KEPT LOWS TWD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD
DAY...WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY BUT STILL A BIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
IT APPEARS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW ALSO GIVES RISE TO LOW WATER
CONCERNS...AS TIDE LEVELS AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE TODAY AT SABINE
AND CALCASIEU PASSES FELL BELOW -1 FT MLLW. A REPEAT IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
FURTHER EVALUATE.

GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WED AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT...WITH THIS TREND ACCELERATING INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN GULF...IMPARTING A WARM WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GLOBAL MODELS BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT SUN INTO MON WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT.

13

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT.
BUILDING SEAS ALONG WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND BAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  55  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  35  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  36  56  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  35  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-
     455-470-472-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090330 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND TO
EXTEND MARINE ADVISORIES BEYOND NOON TUESDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  51  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  31  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  52  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  33  52  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  32  52  31  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ534.

&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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