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00008CE0000
FXUS64 KLCH 012349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TIMING OF LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 06Z IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PERHAPS LFT-ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT WIDE AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED WITH CAPES
AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS RECENTLY INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF WATCH
ISSUANCE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA BY
ROUGHLY 8:00 PM AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

SUNNY SKIES DRIER AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40`S AREA WIDE.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING BACK THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOM. THIS LOW WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60`S.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION LOW
WATER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  49  34  52  42 /  60   0   0  20  50
KBPT  38  49  36  52  42 /  60   0   0  30  50
KAEX  34  46  29  53  39 /  30   0   0  10  20
KLFT  39  48  33  53  43 /  70   0   0  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
     SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 012349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TIMING OF LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 06Z IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PERHAPS LFT-ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT WIDE AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED WITH CAPES
AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS RECENTLY INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF WATCH
ISSUANCE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA BY
ROUGHLY 8:00 PM AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

SUNNY SKIES DRIER AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40`S AREA WIDE.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING BACK THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOM. THIS LOW WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60`S.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION LOW
WATER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  49  34  52  42 /  60   0   0  20  50
KBPT  38  49  36  52  42 /  60   0   0  30  50
KAEX  34  46  29  53  39 /  30   0   0  10  20
KLFT  39  48  33  53  43 /  70   0   0  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
     SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 012349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TIMING OF LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 06Z IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PERHAPS LFT-ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT WIDE AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED WITH CAPES
AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS RECENTLY INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF WATCH
ISSUANCE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA BY
ROUGHLY 8:00 PM AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

SUNNY SKIES DRIER AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40`S AREA WIDE.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING BACK THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOM. THIS LOW WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60`S.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION LOW
WATER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  49  34  52  42 /  60   0   0  20  50
KBPT  38  49  36  52  42 /  60   0   0  30  50
KAEX  34  46  29  53  39 /  30   0   0  10  20
KLFT  39  48  33  53  43 /  70   0   0  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
     SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 012349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...TIMING OF LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 06Z IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PERHAPS LFT-ARA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT WIDE AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED WITH CAPES
AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS RECENTLY INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF WATCH
ISSUANCE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA BY
ROUGHLY 8:00 PM AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

SUNNY SKIES DRIER AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40`S AREA WIDE.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING BACK THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOM. THIS LOW WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60`S.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION LOW
WATER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  49  34  52  42 /  60   0   0  20  50
KBPT  38  49  36  52  42 /  60   0   0  30  50
KAEX  34  46  29  53  39 /  30   0   0  10  20
KLFT  39  48  33  53  43 /  70   0   0  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
     SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012347
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS...RAIN HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AND POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AS WELL AND
IS GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. ONCE THE STRATOCU
DEPARTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES...A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SKC CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
MONDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /  10   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /  10   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /  10   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /  10   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012347
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS...RAIN HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AND POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AS WELL AND
IS GENERALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU. ONCE THE STRATOCU
DEPARTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING SKIES...A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SKC CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME HRS
MONDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /  10   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /  10   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /  10   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /  10   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 012233
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT WIDE AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED WITH CAPES
AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS RECENTLY INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF WATCH
ISSUANCE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA BY
ROUGHLY 8:00 PM AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

SUNNY SKIES DRIER AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40`S AREA WIDE.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING BACK THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOM. THIS LOW WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60`S.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION LOW
WATER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  49  34  52  42 /  60   0   0  20  50
KBPT  38  49  36  52  42 /  60   0   0  30  50
KAEX  34  46  29  53  39 /  30   0   0  10  20
KLFT  39  48  33  53  43 /  70   0   0  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
     SABINE LAKE.

&&

$$

66

000
FXUS64 KLCH 012233
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT WIDE AND BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS LARGELY LIMITED WITH CAPES
AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS RECENTLY INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF WATCH
ISSUANCE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA BY
ROUGHLY 8:00 PM AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

SUNNY SKIES DRIER AIR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40`S AREA WIDE.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY BRINGING BACK THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOM. THIS LOW WILL SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BEING PUSHED OUT BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.

SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE QUITE NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60`S.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA
SO OPTED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION LOW
WATER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  49  34  52  42 /  60   0   0  20  50
KBPT  38  49  36  52  42 /  60   0   0  30  50
KAEX  34  46  29  53  39 /  30   0   0  10  20
KLFT  39  48  33  53  43 /  70   0   0  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
     SABINE LAKE.

&&

$$

66

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMP
00004000
S BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /   5   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /   5   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /   5   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /   5   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /   5   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /   5   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /   5   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /   5   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /   5   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /   5   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /   5   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /   5   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
00002C31

EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /   5   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /   5   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /   5   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 012159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SCT CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY MOVED E ACROSS LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER
ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER SW TO LLQ...TO ELD...TO JUST N OF A IER...TO S
OF A LFK LINE AS OF 21Z. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE...WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO AGREE ON A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z MONDAY TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EXCEPT THE LOWER SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL AS THE
SRN PARISHES OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU OVER CNTRL/ERN OK NOT CLEARING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL LA.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE GRADIENT BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH INTO THE
40S...STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY
DECOUPLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON...BEGINS TO NUDGE E INTO NW OLD MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CIRRUS MAY
HELP OFFSET THE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD NORMALLY
TAKE PLACE...BUT STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. THE PROGS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE
INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER E TX/N LA. THE PROGS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE E ACROSS S LA
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE EXTREME SE
TX/SRN LA COASTS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
CLIPPER ROUNDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO NUDGE S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...DRIVING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE NE OF THE AREA.

SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO SEE A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS TEMPS RETURN BACK ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  46  26  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
MLU  34  44  25  52  35 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEQ  24  42  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  43  25  52  37 /   5   0   0   0  10
ELD  29  43  23  52  34 /   5   0   0   0  10
TYR  27  43  30  53  40 /   5   0   0   0  20
GGG  28  44  27  53  39 /   5   0   0   0  20
LFK  33  49  29  53  41 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-021.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 012106
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STATES HAS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR MEMPHIS AND JUST EAST OF
SHREVEPORT. FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS AND SHOULD
REACH BATON ROUGE AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA
IS JUST CLOUDY...BUT THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT RIGHT NOW...BUT
WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT LIKELY POPS FOR THE EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER
WEAK. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS VERY LOW.
RAIN AMOUNTS ONLY LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 WHERE RAIN
ACTUALLY OCCURS.

FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB FALL ABOUT 12-15C OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHICH MEANS SURFACE TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE 20-25F COOLER
TOMORROW WITH SOME AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ARE GOING TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. CENTER
REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO WE MIGHT NOT GET QUITE AS
COLD AS IT ORIGINALLY APPEARED ON TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN SO...MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LIKELY TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING.

AS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
TIMING OF SURFACE LOW WITH GFS NOW THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. NAM
IS CLOSER TO ECMWF ON TIMING. HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED APPROACH TO
FIT IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. POPS WILL BE TAPERED ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXTREME SOUTH LOUISIANA TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW DEPARTS
THE AREA. BEYOND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEGRADES
CONSIDERABLY AS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND A
00004000
ND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN GFS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND MUCH COOLER NEXT MONDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NEXT SUNDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR IN AND AROUND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT
A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND
BECOMING GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...

A FEW RELATIVELY BENIGN HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CARRYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS
FROM 06Z TONIGHT TO 00Z TUESDAY. LIKELY TO BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE
WARNING. FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES EAST LATE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ON TIMING OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AT
MIDWEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  45  28  52 /  80  10   0  10
BTR  39  48  30  53 /  70   0   0  10
ASD  42  49  30  52 /  70  10   0  10
MSY  45  49  36  53 /  70  10   0  10
GPT  43  50  31  53 /  70  10   0  10
PQL  43  51  29  54 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011829
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011829
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011829
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68 
000016D4
 35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011829
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO MOSTLY MVFR LVLS ACROSS THE
AREA. A STG COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE KTYR AND KTXK TERMINALS.
WSHFT ALONG FRONT TO INCREASE NW 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
INTO NE TX/SE OK. NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS...CURRENTLY NEAR
KSHV AND KELD...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AS PREFRONTAL TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREFRONTAL WINDS S-SW 10 TO 15 KTS. SKIES BECMG VFR SKC FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND 02/00Z. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 02/06Z...THEN BECMG NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU REMAINDER
OF FCST PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE WE GOT DRY SLOTTED PER RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WITH THE ACADIANA TERMINALS REMAINING IN CLOUD COVER WITH
LIGHT PRECIP. BACKED OFF AND IMPROVED TAFS TO VFR ALTHOUGH I WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ARA AND LFT GOING MVFR...WITH A GOOD SWLY FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRYING TO KEEP WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

STRONG BUT FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMB
00004000
EDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE WE GOT DRY SLOTTED PER RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WITH THE ACADIANA TERMINALS REMAINING IN CLOUD COVER WITH
LIGHT PRECIP. BACKED OFF AND IMPROVED TAFS TO VFR ALTHOUGH I WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ARA AND LFT GOING MVFR...WITH A GOOD SWLY FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRYING TO KEEP WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

STRONG BUT FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011741
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011741
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOW
00004000
EVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011741
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011741
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A 20-30NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LIT...TO
ADF...TO TXK...TO JXI/TYR...TO JUST E OF CRS AND TPL AS OF 17Z.
THIS CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN 20-25KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS SW AR/NE
TX WITH ITS PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK CIN CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA. FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED...WITH LFK HAVING JUMPED INTO THE MID 70S.
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY NE ACROSS NCNTRL LA AS SOME OF
THESE BREAKS MAY EXTEND NE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION/BNDRY LYR HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO 500-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG LATE THIS MORNING
WHERE THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
ACTUALLY MAINTAINING THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHERE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH THE BEST FORCING
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.
WHILE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SVR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS MAKING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESS SE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUN HANDLING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE WELL. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS
SLOWER...WITH THE GFS POSITION VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE HRRR. THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS 3-5MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM N TX INTO CNTRL OK/KS...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SFC LOW OVER SW MO. IN
FACT...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NW TO SE STRIATIONS
IN THE STRATOCU FIELD OVER N TX/MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OK...INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 2.5-3KFT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD WORK INTO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10Z MONDAY.
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY E INTO SW AR/WRN LA
LATER...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PER
THE 17Z OBS...WHILE ALSO REFLECTING A TEMP FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADUSTED POPS AS WELL PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

ZONE UPDATE/NPW ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  35  45  27  53 /  80  30   0   0   0
DEQ  55  26  45  24  54 /  60  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  27  45  31  55 /  60  10   0   0   0
GGG  65  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  33  49  30  57 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011602
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011602
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURF
00004000
ACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011602
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011602
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEING SPAWNED BY A NORTHWARD
PUSHING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 20 MPH. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AND DEVELOP INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT
CURRENT SPEEDS THE FRONT WILL REACH TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES
AROUND 4:00 PM AND LAKE CHARLES BETWEEN 8:00 AND 10:00 PM. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  50  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  50  70   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  60  40   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 011409
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THE LAST 12 HOURS AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
JUMPED UP TO 1.44 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FROM
3400 TO 14400 FEET. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2600 FEET ARE HIGHER
/WARMER/ ON AVERAGE BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THIS LAYER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE ITSELF IS 13 C
HIGHER /WARMER/.

THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH A LIFTED INDEX
OF 5 AND SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE CALCULATED AT 0
CURRENTLY. THAT SAID...THERE IS WIND SHEAR--BOTH DIRECTION AND
SPEED. WIND PROFILE IS TYPICAL OF A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
/VEERING/. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 0-20 KNOTS NEAR THE
SURFACE ROTATING TO THE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 INCREASING TO 65
KNOTS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 107 KNOTS. 0-1 KM SRH IS OVER 300 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM SRH IS NEARING 400 M2/S2. SPC DOES HAVE US IN MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE ARE LIMITING FACTORS THOUGH TODAY.
THERE IS ONLY ONE MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL BE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF SUNSHINE
AND THEREBY INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WE WILL WATCH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MONITOR TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT LASTED 124 MINUTES AND
WENT 91 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFO
00004000
RE BURSTING AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND NEAR BIG CREEK LAKE AL JUST WEST OF MOBILE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG WITH LIFT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS AFTER 6Z THE RADAR HAS BECOME FAR MORE
ACTIVE. VERY LGT RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WEST OF 55 AND SOUTH OF 10
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MRNG.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FCST AS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE BAJA LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION MID WEEK.

FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EVEN
A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA(MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS AS BROAD LIFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION. FIRST FOCUSED
DISTURBANCE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS DETACHED FROM THE BAJA LOW
AND AT 8Z WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX. THIS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MRNG AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. AT THE SAME TIME AN H85 THETA E RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED/MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE GREATEST COV AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BUT BY MIDDAY SHRA WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BECOMING MORE SCT POSSIBLY
EVEN ISLTD WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG NRN
STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE. AT 8Z THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENTERING THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME A SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS. THE S/W
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WELL
BEFORE 12Z MON. ALL OF THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF TSRA...MAYBE
EVEN A STRONG ONE OR TWO...THE THREAT DOESNT LOOK GREAT BUT IT IS
NON-ZERO. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING...LL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THAT SAID MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO SHABBY AT 6-6.5 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 50-60 KTS AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL FLOW AROUND
50-60KTS AS WELL. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE PROVIDING A SMALL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. ONCE IT DOES MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA. H925 TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND
0-3C. WHEN THIS IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC IT SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT AS BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THAT SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC/SKIN LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. WITH TEMPS THAT LOW DURING
THE DAY IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE MRNG. WITH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...EVEN LL WINDS WILL
BE LGT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUIET LOW...POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MRNG LOWS TUE
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SWRN MS TO MID UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL SELA. THE FEW THINGS THAT COULD KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING
AS MUCH AS FCST WILL BE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM SUN/SUN NIGHTS
RAINS ALONG WITH WEAK WAA IN THE LL ABV THE SFC. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY. THE GFS HAS NOW SLOWED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN AND THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH FASTER. THIS IS NOT
BODING WELL FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE GEM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO AND THE GFES IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
TIMING WISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BUT
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND
THU. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS AND
NOT LEAN IN FAVOR OF A SPECIFIC MDL.

THE MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE BAJA LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST DOES THIS OCCUR AND WHAT ACTUALLY
KICKS THIS LOW OUT OF THE BAJA. LOOKING ACROSS THE PAC LARGE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THERE THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PAC TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA LOW. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WHICH IS WHY THE
BAJA LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL MON NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS IS A
SLOW PROCESS AND B/C OF THAT I WANT TO LEAN TWRDS THE SLOWER GFS BUT
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. IN FACT THE GFS TRIES
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED. EVEN THE
EURO WHEN IT WAS THE SLOWEST MDL HAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE BAJA
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO TX LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. AT
THE SFC STILL LOOKING FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NWRN GULF WITH THIS
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH LGT
RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND/OR WED NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSRA AS WE
WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END THU/THU NIGHT WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY. 13/MH

MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WINDS STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELEVATE WINDS INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REALM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT
ON WEDNESDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  37  46  28 /  80  80  10   0
BTR  72  39  48  31 /  80  70   0   0
ASD  71  43  50  32 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  73  45  50  37 /  60  70  10   0
GPT  68  44  51  33 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  69  45  51  31 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 011409
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THE LAST 12 HOURS AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
JUMPED UP TO 1.44 INCHES. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FROM
3400 TO 14400 FEET. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2600 FEET ARE HIGHER
/WARMER/ ON AVERAGE BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THIS LAYER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE ITSELF IS 13 C
HIGHER /WARMER/.

THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WITH A LIFTED INDEX
OF 5 AND SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE CALCULATED AT 0
CURRENTLY. THAT SAID...THERE IS WIND SHEAR--BOTH DIRECTION AND
SPEED. WIND PROFILE IS TYPICAL OF A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
/VEERING/. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 0-20 KNOTS NEAR THE
SURFACE ROTATING TO THE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 INCREASING TO 65
KNOTS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND FROM THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 107 KNOTS. 0-1 KM SRH IS OVER 300 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM SRH IS NEARING 400 M2/S2. SPC DOES HAVE US IN MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE ARE LIMITING FACTORS THOUGH TODAY.
THERE IS ONLY ONE MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL BE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF SUNSHINE
AND THEREBY INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WE WILL WATCH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MONITOR TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT LASTED 124 MINUTES AND
WENT 91 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND NEAR BIG CREEK LAKE AL JUST WEST OF MOBILE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG WITH LIFT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS AFTER 6Z THE RADAR HAS BECOME FAR MORE
ACTIVE. VERY LGT RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WEST OF 55 AND SOUTH OF 10
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MRNG.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FCST AS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE BAJA LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION MID WEEK.

FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EVEN
A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA(MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS AS BROAD LIFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION. FIRST FOCUSED
DISTURBANCE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS DETACHED FROM THE BAJA LOW
AND AT 8Z WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX. THIS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MRNG AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. AT THE SAME TIME AN H85 THETA E RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED/MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE GREATEST COV AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BUT BY MIDDAY SHRA WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BECOMING MORE SCT POSSIBLY
EVEN ISLTD WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG NRN
STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE. AT 8Z THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENTERING THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME A SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS. THE S/W
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WELL
BEFORE 12Z MON. ALL OF THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF TSRA...MAYBE
EVEN A STRONG ONE OR TWO...THE THREAT DOESNT LOOK GREAT BUT IT IS
NON-ZERO. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING...LL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THAT SAID MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO SHABBY AT 6-6.5 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 50-60 KTS AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL FLOW AROUND
50-60KTS AS WELL. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE PROVIDING A SMALL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. ONCE IT DOES MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA. H925 TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND
0-3C. WHEN THIS IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC IT SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT AS BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THAT SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC/SKIN LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. WITH TEMPS THAT LOW DURING
THE DAY IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE MRNG. WITH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...EVEN LL WINDS WILL
BE LGT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUIET LOW...POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MRNG LOWS TUE
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SWRN MS TO MID UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL SELA. THE FEW THINGS THAT COULD KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING
AS MUCH AS FCST WILL BE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM SUN/SUN NIGHTS
RAINS ALONG WITH WEAK WAA IN THE LL ABV THE SFC. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY. THE GFS HAS NOW SLOWED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN AND THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH FASTER. THIS IS NOT
BODING WELL FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE GEM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO AND THE GFES IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
TIMING WISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BUT
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND
THU. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS AND
NOT LEAN IN FAVOR OF A SPECIFIC MDL.

THE MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE BAJA LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST DOES THIS OCCUR AND WHAT ACTUALLY
KICKS THIS LOW OUT OF THE BAJA. LOOKING ACROSS THE PAC LARGE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THERE THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PAC TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA LOW. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WHICH IS WHY THE
BAJA LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL MON NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS IS A
SLOW PROCESS AND B/C OF THAT I WANT TO LEAN TWRDS THE SLOWER GFS BUT
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. IN FACT THE GFS TRIES
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED. EVEN THE
EURO WHEN IT WAS THE SLOWEST MDL HAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE BAJA
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO TX LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. AT
THE SFC STILL LOOKING FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NWRN GULF WITH THIS
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH LGT
RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND/OR WED NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSRA AS WE
WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END THU/THU NIGHT WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MOR
00004000
NING.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY. 13/MH

MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WINDS STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELEVATE WINDS INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REALM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT
ON WEDNESDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  37  46  28 /  80  80  10   0
BTR  72  39  48  31 /  80  70   0   0
ASD  71  43  50  32 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  73  45  50  37 /  60  70  10   0
GPT  68  44  51  33 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  69  45  51  31 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34 /  70  60   0   0
KBPT  73  39  50  36 /  70  60   0   0
KAEX  71  35  47  30 /  70  50   0   0
KLFT  72  41  48  33 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34 /  70  60   0   0
KBPT  73  39  50  36 /  70  60   0   0
KAEX  71  35  47  30 /  70  50   0   0
KLFT  72  41  48  33 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34 /  70  60   0   0
KBPT  73  39  50  36 /  70  60   0   0
KAEX  71  35  47  30 /  70  50   0   0
KLFT  72  41  48  33 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR
00002222
 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. WE MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO WITHIN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND THEN
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND MARKEDLY INCREASE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK IN
AND STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34 /  70  60   0   0
KBPT  73  39  50  36 /  70  60   0   0
KAEX  71  35  47  30 /  70  50   0   0
KLFT  72  41  48  33 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011142
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
542 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TAF PD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT BRING
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CLEAR ALL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AS
WELL. EXPECT GUSTY S TO SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25
KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILED
SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL REACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MORNING. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.
BY THE AFTERNOON COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SPILLING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...ENDING THE RAIN MOST AREAS BY 6 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART TODAY AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT
WITH MONDAYS WEATHER DRY AND QUITE COLD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE IN
20S MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S WITH PLENTY SUN
SHINE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS AGAIN IN
THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY
CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  67  35  45  27  53 /  90  30   0   0   0
DEQ  57  26  45  24  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  60  27  45  31  55 /  70  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  33  49  30  57 /  70  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011142
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
542 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TAF PD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT BRING
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS TO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CLEAR ALL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AS
WELL. EXPECT GUSTY S TO SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25
KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILED
SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL REACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MORNING. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.
BY THE AFTERNOON COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SPILLING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...ENDING THE RAIN MOST AREAS BY 6 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER
TO 
00001580
ONE HALF INCH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART TODAY AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT
WITH MONDAYS WEATHER DRY AND QUITE COLD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE IN
20S MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S WITH PLENTY SUN
SHINE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS AGAIN IN
THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY
CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  67  35  45  27  53 /  90  30   0   0   0
DEQ  57  26  45  24  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  60  27  45  31  55 /  70  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  33  49  30  57 /  70  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 011017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG WITH LIFT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS AFTER 6Z THE RADAR HAS BECOME FAR MORE
ACTIVE. VERY LGT RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WEST OF 55 AND SOUTH OF 10
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MRNG.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FCST AS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE BAJA LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION MID WEEK.

FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EVEN
A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA(MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS AS BROAD LIFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION. FIRST FOCUSED
DISTURBANCE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS DETACHED FROM THE BAJA LOW
AND AT 8Z WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX. THIS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MRNG AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. AT THE SAME TIME AN H85 THETA E RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED/MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE GREATEST COV AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BUT BY MIDDAY SHRA WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BECOMING MORE SCT POSSIBLY
EVEN ISLTD WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG NRN
STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE. AT 8Z THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENTERING THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME A SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS. THE S/W
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WELL
BEFORE 12Z MON. ALL OF THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF TSRA...MAYBE
EVEN A STRONG ONE OR TWO...THE THREAT DOESNT LOOK GREAT BUT IT IS
NON-ZERO. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING...LL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THAT SAID MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO SHABBY AT 6-6.5 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 50-60 KTS AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL FLOW AROUND
50-60KTS AS WELL. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE PROVIDING A SMALL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. ONCE IT DOES MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA. H925 TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND
0-3C. WHEN THIS IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC IT SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT AS BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THAT SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC/SKIN LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. WITH TEMPS THAT LOW DURING
THE DAY IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE MRNG. WITH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...EVEN LL WINDS WILL
BE LGT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUIET LOW...POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MRNG LOWS TUE
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SWRN MS TO MID UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL SELA. THE FEW THINGS THAT 
00004000
COULD KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING
AS MUCH AS FCST WILL BE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM SUN/SUN NIGHTS
RAINS ALONG WITH WEAK WAA IN THE LL ABV THE SFC. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY. THE GFS HAS NOW SLOWED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN AND THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH FASTER. THIS IS NOT
BODING WELL FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE GEM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO AND THE GFES IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
TIMING WISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BUT
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND
THU. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS AND
NOT LEAN IN FAVOR OF A SPECIFIC MDL.

THE MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE BAJA LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST DOES THIS OCCUR AND WHAT ACTUALLY
KICKS THIS LOW OUT OF THE BAJA. LOOKING ACROSS THE PAC LARGE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THERE THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PAC TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA LOW. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WHICH IS WHY THE
BAJA LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL MON NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS IS A
SLOW PROCESS AND B/C OF THAT I WANT TO LEAN TWRDS THE SLOWER GFS BUT
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. IN FACT THE GFS TRIES
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED. EVEN THE
EURO WHEN IT WAS THE SLOWEST MDL HAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE BAJA
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO TX LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. AT
THE SFC STILL LOOKING FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NWRN GULF WITH THIS
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH LGT
RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND/OR WED NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSRA AS WE
WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END THU/THU NIGHT WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WINDS STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELEVATE WINDS INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REALM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT
ON WEDNESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  37  46  28 /  80  80  10   0
BTR  72  39  48  31 /  80  70   0   0
ASD  71  43  50  32 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  73  45  50  37 /  60  70  10   0
GPT  68  44  51  33 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  69  45  51  31 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB AVIATION/MARINE: 13/MH

000
FXUS64 KLIX 011017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG WITH LIFT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS AFTER 6Z THE RADAR HAS BECOME FAR MORE
ACTIVE. VERY LGT RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WEST OF 55 AND SOUTH OF 10
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MRNG.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FCST AS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE BAJA LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION MID WEEK.

FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EVEN
A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA(MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS AS BROAD LIFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION. FIRST FOCUSED
DISTURBANCE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS DETACHED FROM THE BAJA LOW
AND AT 8Z WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX. THIS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MRNG AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. AT THE SAME TIME AN H85 THETA E RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED/MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE GREATEST COV AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BUT BY MIDDAY SHRA WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BECOMING MORE SCT POSSIBLY
EVEN ISLTD WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG NRN
STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE. AT 8Z THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENTERING THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME A SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS. THE S/W
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WELL
BEFORE 12Z MON. ALL OF THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF TSRA...MAYBE
EVEN A STRONG ONE OR TWO...THE THREAT DOESNT LOOK GREAT BUT IT IS
NON-ZERO. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING...LL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THAT SAID MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO SHABBY AT 6-6.5 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 50-60 KTS AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL FLOW AROUND
50-60KTS AS WELL. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE PROVIDING A SMALL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. ONCE IT DOES MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA. H925 TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND
0-3C. WHEN THIS IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC IT SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT AS BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THAT SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC/SKIN LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. WITH TEMPS THAT LOW DURING
THE DAY IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE MRNG. WITH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...EVEN LL WINDS WILL
BE LGT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUIET LOW...POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MRNG LOWS TUE
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SWRN MS TO MID UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL SELA. THE FEW THINGS THAT COULD KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING
AS MUCH AS FCST WILL BE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM SUN/SUN NIGHTS
RAINS ALONG WITH WEAK WAA IN THE LL ABV THE SFC. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY. THE GFS HAS NOW SLOWED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN AND THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH FASTER. THIS IS NOT
BODING WELL FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE GEM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO AND THE GFES IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
TIMING WISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BUT
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND
THU. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS AND
NOT LEAN IN FAVOR OF A SPECIFIC MDL.

THE MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE BAJA LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST DOES THIS OCCUR AND WHAT ACTUALLY
KICKS THIS LOW OUT OF THE BAJA. LOOKING ACROSS THE PAC LARGE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THERE THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PAC TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA LOW. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WHICH IS WHY THE
BAJA LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL MON NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS IS A
SLOW PROCESS AND B/C OF THAT I WANT TO LEAN TWRDS THE SLOWER GFS BUT
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. IN FACT THE GFS TRIES
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED. EVEN THE
EURO WHEN IT WAS THE SLOWEST MDL HAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE BAJA
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO TX LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. AT
THE SFC STILL LOOKING FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NWRN GULF WITH THIS
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH LGT
RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND/OR WED NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSRA AS WE
WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END THU/THU NIGHT WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WINDS STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELEVATE WINDS INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REALM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT
ON WEDNESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  37  46  28 /  80  80  10   0
BTR  72  39  48  31 /  80  70   0   0
ASD  71  43  50  32 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  73  45  50  37 /  60  70  10   0
GPT  68  44  51  33 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  69  45  51  31 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB AVIATION/MARINE: 13/MH

000
FXUS64 KSHV 011016
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
416 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILED
SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL REACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MORNING. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.
BY THE AFTERNOON COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SPILLING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...ENDING THE RAIN MOST AREAS BY 6 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART TODAY AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT
WITH MONDAYS WEATHER DRY AND QUITE COLD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO BE IN
20S MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S WITH PLENTY SUN
SHINE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS AGAIN IN
THE 20S. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL
SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY
CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  31  47  28  56 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  67  35  45  27  53 /  90  30   0   0   0
DEQ  57  26  45  24  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  29  43  27  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  62  30  45  25  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  60  27  45  31  55 /  70  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  29  44  30  55 /  80  10   0   0   0
LFK  69  33  49  30  57 /  70  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011000
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END TH
000025C6
IS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  70  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  70  60   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  70  50   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 011000
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THE FIRST IS THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER IS THE LARGE GYRE
THAT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE COAST FRONT
THE NORTHERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW IS WILL UNDERWAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WAA
AHEAD THIS FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING
ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY...MAINLY TO DEPICT THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING A LITTLE BETTER LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BIT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

STILL EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS. THE GFS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT AND TAKES IT A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME SPREADING
OUT OF THE POPS DUE TO A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY. THUS STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND START
TO WRAP UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER POPS WERE BUMPED
UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE GFS SLOWER MOVEMENT...AND WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENLA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WILL LEAVE
THE GALE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW IN CASE THE 12Z RUNS COME IN WITH
HIGHER WINDS. HOWEVER DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SCA TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND VERMILION BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ADDED SCEC TO THE
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  39  50  34  53 /  70  60   0   0  10
KBPT  73  39  50  36  53 /  70  60   0   0  20
KAEX  71  35  47  30  53 /  70  50   0   0  10
KLFT  72  41  48  33  54 /  70  60   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010559
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ONE AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT SE OK/SW AR/NE
TX WHILE ANOTHER AREA HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS
DEEP E TX AND INTO NRN LA. LATEST SFC OBS/KSHV SOUNDING SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS RAIN IS NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IS
LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE NW. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHILE LIMITED....SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY USHER
IN DRIER AIR AND PRECIP SHOULD END AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 1
00004000
2Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010559
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ONE AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT SE OK/SW AR/NE
TX WHILE ANOTHER AREA HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS
DEEP E TX AND INTO NRN LA. LATEST SFC OBS/KSHV SOUNDING SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS RAIN IS NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IS
LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE NW. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHILE LIMITED....SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY USHER
IN DRIER AIR AND PRECIP SHOULD END AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010559
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ONE AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT SE OK/SW AR/NE
TX WHILE ANOTHER AREA HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS
DEEP E TX AND INTO NRN LA. LATEST SFC OBS/KSHV SOUNDING SUGGEST
MOST OF THIS RAIN IS NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IS
LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE NW. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHILE LIMITED....SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY USHER
IN DRIER AIR AND PRECIP SHOULD END AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AROUND 11-12Z
AT MOST SITES THANKS TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO
PATCHY RAIN AND FOG..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SPOTTY SHOWERS STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND
WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH A BRISK SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WIND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 
00004000
RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KBPT AND KLCH AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50  34 /  40  70  40   0   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51  36 /  40  70  40   0   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47  30 /  50  80  40   0   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49  34 /  30  60  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AROUND 11-12Z
AT MOST SITES THANKS TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO
PATCHY RAIN AND FOG..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SPOTTY SHOWERS STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND
WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH A BRISK SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WIND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KBPT AND KLCH AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50  34 /  40  70  40   0   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51  36 /  40  70  40   0   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47  30 /  50  80  40   0   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49  34 /  30  60  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE DETERIORATING AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS CEILINGS LOWER
INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTS VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE
RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE DETERIORATING AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS CEILINGS LOWER
INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTS VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE
RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF E TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF OK/TX WILL ALSO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR/KLFK
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION THUNDER AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR BEYOND MIDNIGHT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF E TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF OK/TX WIL
00004000
L ALSO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR/KLFK
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION THUNDER AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR BEYOND MIDNIGHT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF E TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF OK/TX WILL ALSO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR/KLFK
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION THUNDER AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR BEYOND MIDNIGHT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 010351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
951 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL SLOWER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIME OCCURRENCE OF THE EXPECTED CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRY AIR INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TAKE
TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SATURATE. MADE NOT OTHER CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF E TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF OK/TX WILL ALSO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR/KLFK
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION THUNDER AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR BEYOND MIDNIGHT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS CO
00004000
LDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  70 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010230
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SPOTTY SHOWERS STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND
WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH A BRISK SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KBPT AND KLCH AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50  34 /  40  70  40   0   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51  36 /  40  70  40   0   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47  30 /  50  80  40   0   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49  34 /  30  60  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010230
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. SPOTTY SHOWERS STARTING TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND
WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH A BRISK SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KBPT AND KLCH AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50  34 /  40  70  40   0   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51  36 /  40  70  40   0   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47  30 /  50  80  40   0   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49  34 /  30  60  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE AT
00004000
MOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 312357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF E TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF OK/TX WILL ALSO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR/KLFK
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION THUNDER AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR BEYOND MIDNIGHT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  60 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KSHV 312357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF E TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF OK/TX WILL ALSO MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR/KLFK
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
MENTION THUNDER AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
DETERIORATE AFTER THE RAIN STARTS BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR BEYOND MIDNIGHT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  60 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 312344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KBPT AND KLCH AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50  34 /  40  70  40   0   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51  36 /  40  70  40   0   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47  30 /  50  80  40   0   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49  34 /  30  60  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 312344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 PM C
00004000
ST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF LOWER VIS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KBPT AND KLCH AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE EARLY MORNING
PROGRESSES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50  34 /  40  70  40   0   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51  36 /  40  70  40   0   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47  30 /  50  80  40   0   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49  34 /  30  60  60   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 312154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WITH MAINLY JUST MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
TO LIKELY PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z...WHEN CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO
LOWER OVER NE TX. PATCHY RAIN DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS BECMG LOW MVFR AND OCNL IFR.
E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER NE
TX/SE OK. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
RAINFALL ENDS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN DAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  60 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 312154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WITH MAINLY JUST MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
TO LIKELY PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z...WHEN CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO
LOWER OVER NE TX. PATCHY RAIN DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS BECMG LOW MVFR AND OCNL IFR.
E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER NE
TX/SE OK. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
RAINFALL ENDS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN DAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  60 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 312154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESUL
00004000
TED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WITH MAINLY JUST MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
TO LIKELY PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z...WHEN CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO
LOWER OVER NE TX. PATCHY RAIN DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS BECMG LOW MVFR AND OCNL IFR.
E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER NE
TX/SE OK. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
RAINFALL ENDS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN DAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  60 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 312154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATOCU RETURN HAS NOW NUDGED NWD INTO
THE SW AND WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING ON A
45-50KT SWRLY LLJ THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
NOW NOSING INTO CNTRL WY PER THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...THAT WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE N-S RAIN SHIELD ACROSS CNTRL/NE OK INTO CNTRL TX ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF SLR. THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE PACE AT WHICH THE -SHRA WILL
MOVE INTO E TX/SE OK...BUT SHOULD ENTER THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE START TIME OF POPS FARTHER E
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/N LA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH THE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM NE AND SRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL...THUS HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NE TX/SE OK/SW AR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...COMPARABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE RESULTED 1-3 INCHES EACH EARLIER THIS MONTH. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL MUCH THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM
THE FALLING WATER DROPLETS FROM A WARMER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING LATE.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS NE TX/SW AR...WITH A LITTLE
BETTER SFC/MLCAPES /AROUND 500 J/KG/ DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE CONVECTION
EXPECTING TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON/WITH THE
COLD FROPA. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA MOVEMENT THAT THE NAM
IS ADVERTISING AS THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SHALLOW AT FIRST...AND MAY
STRUGGLE OVERCOMING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OVER SE
OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SUCH THAT PORTIONS OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS MONDAY...RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. SHOULD SEE A FREEZE
AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN SRLY FLOW RESULTS IN TEMPS
MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW
WHICH WILL SHUNT THE BULK OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE E ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUES TO DROPS S INTO NRN
BAJA/NW MX THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES INTO NCNTRL OLD MX TUESDAY AND INTO S TX
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER S AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
THE PROGS CONTINUING TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS /INCLUDING THE
CANADIAN/...HAVE RAISED POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SRN
ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BACK SE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS COLDER WITH THE
FROPA GIVEN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AS
WELL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF COLD -RA
DEVELOPING AREAWIDE THURSDAY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...WITH
EVEN MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAT WEEKEND IN TIME FOR
THE MARDI GRAS PARADES SCHEDULED TO RESUME ACROSS THE REGION.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WITH MAINLY JUST MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
TO LIKELY PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z...WHEN CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO
LOWER OVER NE TX. PATCHY RAIN DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS BECMG LOW MVFR AND OCNL IFR.
E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER NE
TX/SE OK. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
RAINFALL ENDS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN DAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  63  31  47  28 /  70  90  10   0   0
MLU  49  65  34  45  26 /  60 100  30   0   0
DEQ  48  56  25  43  25 / 100  90  10   0   0
TXK  51  60  28  43  26 /  90 100  10   0   0
ELD  49  61  31  44  24 /  80 100  20   0   0
TYR  55  60  28  46  30 /  90  80  10   0   0
GGG  54  62  29  46  28 /  90  90  10   0   0
LFK  56  68  34  49  28 /  70  80  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLIX 312127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CUTOFF LOW WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM THE DRY 0.34 FROM THIS MORNINGS LIX
SOUNDING TO 1.25-1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE
MON. H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS
WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND
RATHER LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
BAJA LOW WHICH BY LATE MONDAY WOULD HAVE DUG TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME TIME AND TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE OLD BAJA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS NOW IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE OUTER
GULF WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER GULF WATERS CLOSER TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...95/DMM
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 312127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CUTOFF LOW WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM THE DRY 0.34 FROM THIS MORNINGS LIX
SOUNDING TO 1.25-1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORN
00004000
ING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE
MON. H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS
WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND
RATHER LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
BAJA LOW WHICH BY LATE MONDAY WOULD HAVE DUG TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME TIME AND TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE OLD BAJA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS NOW IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE OUTER
GULF WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER GULF WATERS CLOSER TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...95/DMM
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 312127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CUTOFF LOW WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM THE DRY 0.34 FROM THIS MORNINGS LIX
SOUNDING TO 1.25-1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE
MON. H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS
WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND
RATHER LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
BAJA LOW WHICH BY LATE MONDAY WOULD HAVE DUG TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME TIME AND TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE OLD BAJA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS NOW IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE OUTER
GULF WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER GULF WATERS CLOSER TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...95/DMM
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 312003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50 /  40  70  40   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51 /  40  70  40   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47 /  50  80  40   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49 /  30  60  60   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 312003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHERN BAJA...AND A PUSH OF JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES.

NOT TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
PROGS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEXT TWO WEATHER
MAKERS. THE BAJA TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING CUT OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIVE TWD THE SE. THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA
IS FCST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
INTO SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY FRONTAL FORCING SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...AND HIGHEST POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON TAP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS EASTWARD...RESULTING IN SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN
GULF. THE LOW IS SUBSEQUENTLY FCST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WED AND WED NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
THE TIMING OF THIS JUST A BIT...BUT THIS DID RESULT IN LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND RAISING THEM WED NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINS
LOOK TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHERE
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO CAN FALL BEFORE RAINS COME TO AN END. AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THU AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  39  50 /  40  70  40   0
KBPT  56  71  39  51 /  40  70  40   0
KAEX  51  69  35  47 /  50  80  40   0
KLFT  55  71  41  49 /  30  60  60   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     W
00000B40
ATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311840
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WITH MAINLY JUST MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
TO LIKELY PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 01/00Z...WHEN CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO
LOWER OVER NE TX. PATCHY RAIN DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS BECMG LOW MVFR AND OCNL IFR.
E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER NE
TX/SE OK. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF A FEW TSTMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
RAINFALL ENDS AND CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN DAY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE
HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER E TX...WHERE STRATOCU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE AND
CNTRL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE
AC SHIELD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WITH THICK CIRRUS NOTED FARTHER S. THE KSHV
88-D DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER NE TX/SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 10KFT PER THE KSHV RAOB...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THESE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC OBS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT THE -RA IS REACHING THE GROUND GENERALLY NEAR/W OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/N TX...WITH IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE DRY
AIR FARTHER E TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EVEN THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE RA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. SERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING BNDRY LYR TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUN IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
NCNTRL LA. DID MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /   0  50 100  40   0
DEQ  55  46  57  25  44 /  10  
00004000
90  90  10   0
TXK  56  49  58  28  43 /  10  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  20  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  10  90 100  10   0
LFK  62  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311748
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...RAIN MOVES IN TNITE AT BPT AND AEX WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE RAIN MOVING IN LATE TNITE OR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING KLCH AND KSHV RAOBS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
7K FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE TIME THIS LAYER
BEGINS TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ABOVE...AS
EVIDENT ON THE KCRP SOUNDING...WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROGGED LIFT IS ALSO GENERALLY UNDERWHELMING. POPS WERE
ALREADY GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER SUCH THAT RAIN REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FCST ELEMENTS WERE JUST
FRESHENED UP A BIT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...OPTED TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE A
LITTLE EARLY BASED ON LATEST BUOY/AWOS DATA...THOUGH EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41  50 /  10  30  70  40   0
KBPT  62  56  71  41  52 /  10  40  70  30   0
KAEX  61  51  67  36  47 /  10  40  80  40   0
KLFT  64  55  70  42  50 /  10  30  60  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311748
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...RAIN MOVES IN TNITE AT BPT AND AEX WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE RAIN MOVING IN LATE TNITE OR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING KLCH AND KSHV RAOBS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
7K FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE TIME THIS LAYER
BEGINS TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ABOVE...AS
EVIDENT ON THE KCRP SOUNDING...WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROGGED LIFT IS ALSO GENERALLY UNDERWHELMING. POPS WERE
ALREADY GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER SUCH THAT RAIN REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FCST ELEMENTS WERE JUST
FRESHENED UP A BIT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...OPTED TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE A
LITTLE EARLY BASED ON LATEST BUOY/AWOS DATA...THOUGH EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41  50 /  10  30  70  40   0
KBPT  62  56  71  41  52 /  10  40  70  30   0
KAEX  61  51  67  36  47 /  10  40  80  40   0
KLFT  64  55  70  42  50 /  10  30  60  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311704
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE
HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER E TX...WHERE STRATOCU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE AND
CNTRL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE
AC SHIELD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WITH THICK CIRRUS NOTED FARTHER S. THE KSHV
88-D DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER NE TX/SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 10KFT PER THE KSHV RAOB...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THESE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC OBS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT THE -RA IS REACHING THE GROUND GENERALLY NEAR/W OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/N TX...WITH IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE DRY
AIR FARTHER E TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EVEN THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE RA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. SERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING BNDRY LYR TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUN IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
NCNTRL LA. DID MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  51  60  32  45 /   5  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /   0  50 100  40   0
DEQ  55  46  57  25  44 /  10  90  90  10   0
TXK  56  49  58  28  43 /  10  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /   5  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  20  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  10  90 100  10   0
LFK  62  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311704
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE
HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER E TX...WHERE STRATOCU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE AND
CNTRL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE
AC SHIELD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WITH THICK CIRRUS NOTED FARTHER S. THE KSHV
88-D DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER NE TX/SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 10KFT PER THE KSHV RAOB...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THESE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC OBS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT THE -RA IS REACHING THE GROUND GENERALLY NEAR/W OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/N TX...WITH IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE DRY
AIR FARTHER E TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EVEN THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE RA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. SERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING BNDRY LYR TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUN IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
NCNTRL LA. DID MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  51  60  32  45 /   5  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /   0  50 100  40   0
DEQ  55  46  57  25  44 /  10  90  90  10   0
TXK  56  49  58  28  43 /  10  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /   5  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  20  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  10  90 100  10   0
LFK  62  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311704
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE
HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER E TX...WHERE STRATOCU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE AND
CNTRL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE
AC SHIELD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WITH THICK CIRRUS NOTED FARTHER S. THE KSHV
88-D DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER NE TX/SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 10KFT PER THE KSHV RAOB...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THESE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC OBS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT THE -RA IS REACHING THE GROUND GENERALLY NEAR/W OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/N TX...WITH IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE DRY
AIR FARTHER E TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EVEN THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE RA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. SERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING BNDRY LYR TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUN IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
NCNTRL LA. DID MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  51  60  32  45 /   5  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /   0  50 100  40   0
DEQ  55  46  57  25  44 /  10  90  90  10   0
TXK  56  49  58  28  43 /  10  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /   5  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  20  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  10  90 100  10   0
LFK  62  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311704
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2
00004000
015

.DISCUSSION...
SE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE
HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER E TX...WHERE STRATOCU CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE AND
CNTRL TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE
AC SHIELD OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WITH THICK CIRRUS NOTED FARTHER S. THE KSHV
88-D DOES INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER NE TX/SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NOTED
BELOW 10KFT PER THE KSHV RAOB...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THESE RETURNS ARE
REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC OBS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT THE -RA IS REACHING THE GROUND GENERALLY NEAR/W OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL OK/N TX...WITH IT TAKING SOME TIME FOR THE DRY
AIR FARTHER E TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND THROUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. EVEN THE NEW 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE RA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SE OK/THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. SERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING BNDRY LYR TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUN IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
NCNTRL LA. DID MAKE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE THE AC SHIELD IS DENSER.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ZONE UPDATE
ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  51  60  32  45 /   5  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /   0  50 100  40   0
DEQ  55  46  57  25  44 /  10  90  90  10   0
TXK  56  49  58  28  43 /  10  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /   5  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  20  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  10  90 100  10   0
LFK  62  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311616
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING KLCH AND KSHV RAOBS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
7K FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE TIME THIS LAYER
BEGINS TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ABOVE...AS
EVIDENT ON THE KCRP SOUNDING...WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROGGED LIFT IS ALSO GENERALLY UNDERWHELMING. POPS WERE
ALREADY GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER SUCH THAT RAIN REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FCST ELEMENTS WERE JUST
FRESHENED UP A BIT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...OPTED TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE A
LITTLE EARLY BASED ON LATEST BUOY/AWOS DATA...THOUGH EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41 /  10  30  70  40
KBPT  62  56  71  41 /  10  40  70  30
KAEX  61  51  67  36 /  10  40  80  40
KLFT  64  55  70  42 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311616
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING KLCH AND KSHV RAOBS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
7K FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE TIME THIS LAYER
BEGINS TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ABOVE...AS
EVIDENT ON THE KCRP SOUNDING...WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROGGED LIFT IS ALSO GENERALLY UNDERWHELMING. POPS WERE
ALREADY GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER SUCH THAT RAIN REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FCST ELEMENTS WERE JUST
FRESHENED UP A BIT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...OPTED TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE A
LITTLE EARLY BASED ON LATEST BUOY/AWOS DATA...THOUGH EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41 /  10  30  70  40
KBPT  62  56  71  41 /  10  40  70  30
KAEX  61  51  67  36 /  10  40  80  40
KLFT  64  55  70  42 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311616
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING KLCH AND KSHV RAOBS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
7K FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE TIME THIS LAYER
BEGINS TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ABOVE...AS
EVIDENT ON THE KCRP SOUNDING...WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROGGED LIFT IS ALSO GENERALLY UNDERWHELMING. POPS WERE
ALREADY GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER SUCH THAT RAIN REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FCST ELEMENTS WERE JUST
FRESHENED UP A BIT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...OPTED TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE A
LITTLE EARLY BASED ON LATEST BUOY/AWOS DATA...THOUGH EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41 /  10  30  70  40
KBPT  62  56  71  41 /  10  40  70  30
KAEX  61  51  67  36 /  10  40  80  40
KLFT  64  55  70  42 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311616
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING KLCH AND KSHV RAOBS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW
7K FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THE TIME THIS LAYER
BEGINS TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ABOVE...AS
EVIDENT ON THE KCRP SOUNDING...WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. PROGGED LIFT IS ALSO GENERALLY UNDERWHELMING. POPS WERE
ALREADY GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER SUCH THAT RAIN REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FCST ELEMENTS WERE JUST
FRESHENED UP A BIT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...OPTED TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE A
LITTLE EARLY BASED ON LATEST BUOY/AWOS DATA...THOUGH EAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 
00004000
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41 /  10  30  70  40
KBPT  62  56  71  41 /  10  40  70  30
KAEX  61  51  67  36 /  10  40  80  40
KLFT  64  55  70  42 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
655 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THIS
MORNING IT IS FROM THE SURFACE TO 3200 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS IS A LAYER WHERE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. TOWARD THE TOP OF THIS DRY AIR ABOVE 14000 FEET...WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING IN
MORE MOIST AIR FROM OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR
40700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 104 MINUTES.
THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING NEAR SHIP ISLAND 52 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
655 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THIS
MORNING IT IS FROM THE SURFACE TO 3200 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS IS A LAYER WHERE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. TOWARD THE TOP OF THIS DRY AIR ABOVE 14000 FEET...WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING IN
MORE MOIST AIR FROM OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR
40700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 104 MINUTES.
THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING NEAR SHIP ISLAND 52 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  
00004000
10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
655 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THIS
MORNING IT IS FROM THE SURFACE TO 3200 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS IS A LAYER WHERE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. TOWARD THE TOP OF THIS DRY AIR ABOVE 14000 FEET...WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING IN
MORE MOIST AIR FROM OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR
40700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 104 MINUTES.
THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING NEAR SHIP ISLAND 52 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
655 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THIS
MORNING IT IS FROM THE SURFACE TO 3200 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS IS A LAYER WHERE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. TOWARD THE TOP OF THIS DRY AIR ABOVE 14000 FEET...WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING IN
MORE MOIST AIR FROM OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR
40700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 104 MINUTES.
THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING NEAR SHIP ISLAND 52 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311232
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTI
00004000
NG OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41 /  10  30  70  40
KBPT  62  56  71  41 /  10  40  70  30
KAEX  61  51  67  36 /   0  40  80  40
KLFT  64  55  70  42 /   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 311232
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS
MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.

06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41 /  10  30  70  40
KBPT  62  56  71  41 /  10  40  70  30
KAEX  61  51  67  36 /   0  40  80  40
KLFT  64  55  70  42 /   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 311210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PD. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
RAIN SETS IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME SELY AT 6-12 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
00004000
 REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: GP

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: GP

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WI
00004000
TH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: GP

000
FXUS64 KLIX 311030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: GP

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310946
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
346 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A UPPER RIDGE FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM OUT WEST DIGS INTO MEXICO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC ESTABLISHING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF
INCH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MONDAYS WEATHER STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN...ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRIVING ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTH...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT BEHIND SUNDAYS AND
THURSDAY FRONTS...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  51  60  32  45 /  10  70 100  20   0
MLU  60  49  65  34  43 /  10  50 100  40   0
DEQ  54  46  57  25  44 /  20  90  90  10   0
TXK  54  49  58  28  43 /  20  90 100  10   0
ELD  57  46  60  31  43 /  10  70 100  30   0
TYR  59  54  59  28  45 /  30  90  90  10   0
GGG  61  51  60  30  45 /  20  90 100  10   0
LFK  63  54  66  35  48 /  20  70  80  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310925
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW P
00004000
RESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41  50 /  10  30  60  40   0
KBPT  62  56  71  41  52 /  10  40  70  30   0
KAEX  61  51  67  36  47 /   0  40  70  40   0
KLFT  64  55  70  42  50 /   0  30  60  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27
$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310925
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
THE NEXT TWO RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS FOR THE AREA. THE MOST EVIDENT
IS THE LARGE GYRE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
PRESSURE TO FALL IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING. ALSO IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT LEAVING MONDAY DRY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO INTO
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRINGES OF A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. OTHERWISE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  54  69  41  50 /  10  30  60  40   0
KBPT  62  56  71  41  52 /  10  40  70  30   0
KAEX  61  51  67  36  47 /   0  40  70  40   0
KLFT  64  55  70  42  50 /   0  30  60  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27
$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310548
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/06Z TAFS...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
CIGS WILL LOWER AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME SELY
SATURDAY MORNING HELPING TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OK/TX BEFORE FINALLY
REACHING OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
KTYR/KLFK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT A FEW LEADING SHWRS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD ALSO AFFECT KGGG/KSHV/KTXK. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL CIGS/VSBYS DETERIORATE DUE TO THE
RAIN. /09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310534
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310534
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310534
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310534
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310507
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1107 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE SAT EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12KTS SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310507
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1107 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL GR
00004000
ADUALLY THICKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE SAT EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12KTS SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310335
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SELY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS OK/TX FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 310335
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITION.
MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES, /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/00Z TAFS...BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME SELY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS OK/TX FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KTYR
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRRUS
SHIELD HAS THICKENED...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS A SLUG
OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS E INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA CLOSED LOW. SFC RIDGING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO N
TX THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. SHOULD START TO
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO E TX/WCNTRL LA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE COLUMN SATURATION
FURTHER THAN EARLIER RUNS...WITH MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE QPF FARTHER W
OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS FURTHER W
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
40KT SWRLY LLJ SHIFTS NE INTO E TX/SE OK AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SET TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PROGS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL
QPFS AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER TOTALS OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR. DESPITE THIS...HAVE EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. DESPITE THE MODEST SWRLY
LLJ...HAVE OMITTED ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY REMOTE GIVEN THE POOR SFC INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL SWD BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAX TEMPS TRENDING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY EVEN AS ANY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DIMINISHES. THESE
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE AIR MASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY TUESDAY AS A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE ONCE IT SHIFTS E INTO THE SE STATES. OUR
FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BAJA SINKS
SWD ALONG THE MX COAST MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING E ACROSS NRN MX MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO E TX/N LA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT -SHRA RETURNING TO THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER N THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE RAINS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH REINFORCED ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWD THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. DID CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NE
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY
DIVE SWD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  57  51  60  34 /   0  10  70  80  20
MLU  32  58  48  60  36 /   0  10  50  80  40
DEQ  32  51  45  54  26 /  10  20  90  80  10
TXK  35  53  47  57  29 /  10  20  90  80  20
ELD  32  56  47  57  31 /   0  10  70  80  30
TYR  40  55  51  59  31 /  10  20  90  70  20
GGG  40  57  51  60  31 /  10  20  90  80  20
LFK  41  59  53  65  36 /   0  20  70  80  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISO
00004000
RIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 310320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER AT KBPT AND KLCH CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY TO 10 KTS OR MORE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEPARTING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF
OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN FROM THE WRN GOMEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...IMPARTING A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING
SLIDES EASTWARD...THOUGH PACIFIC MSTR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS...WITH LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASING
AS THE SFC HIGH/LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TWD THE SE CONUS. LIFT IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IS LIKELY
TO INITIALLY HOLD PCPN AT BAY. THAT SHOULD CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES...WITH ADDITION
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROF.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE BAJA
TROF...AND RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AMID SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
INCREASE AGAIN TUE AS THE BAJA LOW BEGINS TO EJECT OUT ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE DISPARITY IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING SFC LOW FORMATION OVER
THE NW GULF...WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS ISNT BAD...AND POPS WERE
EDGED UP A LITTLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. COOL AND DRY TO END THE
WEEK.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  62  54  68  42 /   0  10  30  60  40
KBPT  44  62  56  70  42 /   0  10  40  70  40
KAEX  37  61  51  67  37 /   0   0  40  70  40
KLFT  42  64  55  70  43 /   0   0  30  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310129
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
729 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STABLE WITH TWO ELEVATED INVERSION
LAYERS AT 875 AND 525 MB. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY... THE DRIEST OF
THE WEEK WITH PW .28 INCHES. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE EVIDENT AT
UPPER LEVELS THOUGH DUE TO A CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB AND WESTERLY ABOVE.
FROM THE SFC TO 950 MB THE SOUNDING IS 10-15 F COOLER THAN 0Z
YESTERDAY.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  35  60  50 /   0   0   0  40

00001C68
BTR  62  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  40
ASD  62  37  60  52 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  62  43  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  62  37  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  62  34  59  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 310129
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
729 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STABLE WITH TWO ELEVATED INVERSION
LAYERS AT 875 AND 525 MB. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY... THE DRIEST OF
THE WEEK WITH PW .28 INCHES. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE EVIDENT AT
UPPER LEVELS THOUGH DUE TO A CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB AND WESTERLY ABOVE.
FROM THE SFC TO 950 MB THE SOUNDING IS 10-15 F COOLER THAN 0Z
YESTERDAY.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  35  60  50 /   0   0   0  40
BTR  62  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  40
ASD  62  37  60  52 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  62  43  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  62  37  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  62  34  59  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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