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000
FXUS64 KSHV 181537
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1037 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR EXTREME ERN
AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW. DESPITE NELY WINDS TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HAVE MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS TO RAISE WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED.
HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/POPS/WX TO BE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z. HOWEVER...EARLY IN THE PERIOD...EXPECT
SOME MARGINAL FLIGHT WEATHER...AS SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OF THE AREA BY 16Z. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT HAS SERVED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH E OK/W AR. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY
LATE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEAR KFSM TO
OUR SE ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND SOME OF THE VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME QPF
IN OUR ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN OUT AS LATEST
SAT/WV IMAGES INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

RIDING ALOFT WILL KEEP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES F AREAWIDE. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE MUCH WETTER AND EARLIER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. GFS/NAM
ARE MUCH LATER...NOT DEVELOPING ANY QPF IN THE CWA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...IT SEEMS THAT THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN THE WINNER SO HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
MORE IN TERMS OF THE GFS/NAM IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO HIGHER IN DELAYING RAIN CHANCES AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA EVEN INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BEGAN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD IMPULSE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINATION OF THIS IMPULSE AND RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND BRING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  80  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  53  78  55  82 /  30  10  10  10  10
DEQ  76  53  77  53  78 /  10  10  10  10  30
TXK  75  53  79  55  79 /  10  10  10  10  30
ELD  74  53  78  53  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
TYR  77  54  79  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  77  55  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  78  56  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN 
000043BD
TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 181045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z. HOWEVER...EARLY IN THE PERIOD...EXPECT
SOME MARGINAL FLIGHT WEATHER...AS SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION. THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OF THE AREA BY 16Z. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT HAS SERVED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH E OK/W AR. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY
LATE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEAR KFSM TO
OUR SE ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND SOME OF THE VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME QPF
IN OUR ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN OUT AS LATEST
SAT/WV IMAGES INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

RIDING ALOFT WILL KEEP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES F AREAWIDE. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE MUCH WETTER AND EARLIER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. GFS/NAM
ARE MUCH LATER...NOT DEVELOPING ANY QPF IN THE CWA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...IT SEEMS THAT THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN THE WINNER SO HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
MORE IN TERMS OF THE GFS/NAM IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO HIGHER IN DELAYING RAIN CHANCES AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA EVEN INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BEGAN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD IMPULSE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINATION OF THIS IMPULSE AND RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND BRING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  80  57  80 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  53  78  55  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  75  53  77  53  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TXK  74  53  79  55  79 /  20  10  10  10  30
ELD  74  53  78  53  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  75  54  79  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  76  55  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  56  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/09

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWE
0000244B
R 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180942
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
442 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT HAS SERVED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE THROUGH E OK/W AR. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY
LATE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEAR KFSM TO
OUR SE ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND SOME OF THE VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS KEEP SOME QPF
IN OUR ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN OUT AS LATEST
SAT/WV IMAGES INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

RIDING ALOFT WILL KEEP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES F AREAWIDE. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE MUCH WETTER AND EARLIER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. GFS/NAM
ARE MUCH LATER...NOT DEVELOPING ANY QPF IN THE CWA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...IT SEEMS THAT THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN THE WINNER SO HAVE TRENDED THE FCST
MORE IN TERMS OF THE GFS/NAM IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO HIGHER IN DELAYING RAIN CHANCES AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA EVEN INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BEGAN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD IMPULSE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH.
COMBINATION OF THIS IMPULSE AND RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GIVE US A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SO IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND BRING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION BACK TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  80  57  80 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  53  78  55  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  75  53  77  53  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TXK  74  53  79  55  79 /  20  10  10  10  30
ELD  74  53  78  53  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  75  54  79  58  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  76  55  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  56  80  58  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/14

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A RATHER LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW.

LOCALLY...MOST RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY SITTING IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE 
00004000
TO A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A GREATER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE REGION. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS QPF FIELD WHILE THE NAM CONTAINS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE
EURO IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...THOUGH CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE
NAM. INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING ONLY MEAGER CAPE VALUES IN THE 200 TO 600 J/KG RANGE.
NONETHELESS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE ADDED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS
UP INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY...WITH QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH...THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR OR ABOVE ONE HALF INCH COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS
SHOULD PUT AN END TO ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH DEEP RIDGING FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WARM/SEASONAL CONDITIONS WITH NO
REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A WEAK COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHERN END. THAT SAID...AM CARRYING
HIGHER POPS...IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
COMPARED TO SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AND SLIDES EASTWARD...THE
WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST AND DEEP
RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT THE
KGPT...KASD...KMCB...KMSY AND KNEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MAINLY
EARLY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND EXERCISE
CAUTION  HEADLINES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY BE CUT BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY
BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE
COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  52  77  54 /  30  10   0  10
BTR  73  55  80  56 /  30  10   0  10
ASD  73  53  77  53 /  30  10   0   0
MSY  72  57  75  59 /  30  10   0   0
GPT  72  54  77  57 /  30  10   0   0
PQL  70  51  76  51 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180456 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A BAND
OF 4-5KFT CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER SCNTRL AR/NW
LA...AND MAY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE
LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE AREAS OF 8-10KFT CIGS
OVER SW AR/SE OK/E TX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ACROSS N LA/SCNTRL
AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW
MOVING THROUGH ERN OK/ECNTRL TX. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
AFFECT CIGS/VSBYS AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT MLU PRIOR TO 12Z THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING BEFORE THE CIGS LIFT DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. SHOULD
SEE THE AC FIELD DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS E TX/SW AR/WRN LA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY CLEARING SCNTRL AR/NE LA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED -SHRA PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER S AR/N LA...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION ATTM. A
SCT/BKN CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWRD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF TX/OK WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT SHWRS ON RADAR MOSAIC OVER
N CNTRL TX AND SE OK. IN ADDITION...CONTINUING TO WATCH SIMILAR
ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE LA. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE SFC AND BY LOOKING AT LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS...THE ANSWER IS LITTLE IF ANY. HOWEVER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME
LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT SO HAVE CARRIED 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TROF AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BNDRY IN SRN OK/NRN TX.
MOSTLY COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE IN THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER MIMAC OBS AND TRENDS GOING
FORWARD LATER TONIGHT...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT ALTHOUGH
WORDING IN THE ZONES LIKELY WILL NOT CHANGE. DID ALSO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EAST AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THE MOMENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  55  74  56  78  61 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  46  76  52  77  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  50  75  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  60 /  20  20  10  10  10
TYR  54  78  57  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  52  78  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  53  79  57  80  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180456
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...THE NEXT TROF PASSAGE WILL BE PRECEDED BY INCREASING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK FOR BPT AND
LCH...AFTER DAYBREAK FOR AEX. AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND NVA IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR
CIGS LATE TNITE INTO LFT AND ARA WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AT ARA WITH
GROUND FOG. THE TROF ONCOMIN TROF PASSAGE SHOULD USHER IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THAT
IS BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180456
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...THE NEXT TROF PASSAGE WILL BE PRECEDED BY INCREASING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK FOR BPT AND
LCH...AFTER DAYBREAK FOR AEX. AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND NVA IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR
CIGS LATE TNITE INTO LFT AND ARA WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AT ARA WITH
GROUND FOG. THE TROF ONCOMIN TROF PASSAGE SHOULD USHER IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THAT
IS BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180345
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1045 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A FASTER EVOLUTION OF THE RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO A FASTER EXIT AS THE MAIN INITIATION REGION
IN THE CENTRAL GULF APPEARS TO BE GETTING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TONIGHT
TO REFLECT CATEGORICAL RAINFA
00000125
LL COVERAGE CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA LINE
AND TRENDING TO LOWER POPS WESTWARD. ALSO LATEST RAPID UPDATE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LESSER WINDS IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL C-MAN AND SHALLOW WATER BUOYS SUPPORT THIS NOTION. THE
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY AT RIG LEVELS
00004000

IN THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LOWERED FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT MAINTAIN IN THE OUTER
WATERS NEXT TO THE GALE WARNING THAT OPC HAS NEAR THE GALE/LOW
CENTER. THE LAKE WINDS HAVE ALSO LESSENED BASED ON LATEST OBS.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL BE CANCELLING THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME AS TIDES ARE IN THE LOW PART OF THE CYCLE AND SHOULD
LOSE ANY SUPPORT FOR AUGMENTATION HEADING INTO THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS EVENING. A HIGH BASED INVERSION AT 800
MB IS REDUCING RAINFALL TO SHALLOW WARM RAIN WITH LIMITED LIFT IN
THE MID-LEVELS. A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN FROM SUFACE TO 800
MB...A DRY LAYER TO 600 MB THEN SATURATED THROUGH A VERY HIGH
TROPOPAUSE AT 165 MB. WINDS WERE SOLID EASTERLIES 5-25 KT SURFACE
TO 1900 FT...SE 10-25 KT TO 13.7KFT THEN SW 20-110 KT AVOVE. PEAK
WINDS 220/108KT AT 43.3KFT AT THE TROPOPAUSE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.20 INCHES IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. LIFTED
INDEX IS A STABLE 4.2.

&&

.AVIATION...
THOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR AVIATION PURPOSES.
CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TONIGHT
BUT IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SEE UPDATE SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHER
DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1010-1015 MB LOW
AND A 1040-45 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA WITH A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WITH THE 1028 MB PRESSURE LINE
INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATER AREAS OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS
BEEN JUST ENOUGH PERSISTENCE AND FETCH FROM STRONGER EAST WINDS TO
PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS MUCH AS 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
OF HANCOCK COUNTY AND SHELL BEACH ON LAKE BORGNE. HAVE ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE GULF FACING COAST FROM HANCOCK
COUNTY TO PLAQUEMINES PARISH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
IMPACT SHOULD BE NOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING SINCE THE HIGH TIDE WAS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR WILL EARLY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WATER IN EVEN AS THE TIDE FALLS...SO THE NET
RESULT MAY BE ONLY A SLOW FALL UNTIL WINDS BECOME DUE NORTHEAST
LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

REGARDING RAINFALL...THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN STAYING
JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST AND MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...THE MODELS
INSIST A NORTHEAST PUSH TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL OCCUR AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TWO VORTICITY LOBES MOVES THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM NEAR LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH TO THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST WITH MODERATE AMOUNT`S AROUND ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE LOWER PEARL RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. ONLY A
SLIGHT PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO 50S ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN LOW TO MID
70S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

LONG TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RULE SUNDAY...THEN A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
SOME CLOUDS AND NO RAIN. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFT
WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST REGION. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 22/TD

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED /MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS/...WITH PERIODS
OF LIFR POSSIBLE. VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF 3-6 MILES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DURING RAIN AND ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE THE LIFR CIGS DEVELOP. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL ALSO CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
RISE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR KNEW LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KMSY...KHUM...AND KGPT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 22/TD

MARINE...
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY GETS BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN SPACE
AND TIME THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT THE
TIDAL LAKES AND FAR WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THE OUTER WATERS MAY HAVE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE WATERS EAST OF THE
RIVER...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EASTERN ZONES FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
SHOULD FALL TO MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN
TRANSITION TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
GULF. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  71  53  78 /  30  20  10  10
BTR  57  74  57  79 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  58  72  55  76 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  60  73  58  75 /  30  20  10  10
GPT  60  72  57  76 / 100  30  10  10
PQL  57  71  51  75 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180313
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWRD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF TX/OK WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF LIGHT SHWRS ON RADAR MOSAIC OVER
N CNTRL TX AND SE OK. IN ADDITION...CONTINUING TO WATCH SIMILAR
ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE LA. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE SFC AND BY LOOKING AT LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS...THE ANSWER IS LITTLE IF ANY. HOWEVER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME
LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT SO HAVE CARRIED 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TROF AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BNDRY IN SRN OK/NRN TX.
MOSTLY COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE IN THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER MIMAC OBS AND TRENDS GOING
FORWARD LATER TONIGHT...ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT ALTHOUGH
WORDING IN THE ZONES LIKELY WILL NOT CHANGE. DID ALSO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
EAST AS THE TROF LIFTS OUT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THE MOMENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME CU/AC AND AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO S TX...WITH A LARGE SUCKER
HOLE NOTED IN A 50NM WIDE AREA OVER SW AR/NW LA/E TX. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL IN WITH AN EXTENSIVE 9-11KFT CIG...ALTHOUGH LOWER CU
CIGS NEAR 4.5KFT WILL SHIFT E THIS EVENING AND THEN S
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS/VSBYS AND WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING FRIDAY OVER NE LA...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE
AC FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY
OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND OVER WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFTER 18Z...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS BUT AGAIN...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE INSERTING
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER W ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. LT NE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  55  74  56  78  61 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  46  76  52  77  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  50  75  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  60 /  20  20  10  10  10
TYR  54  78  57  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  52  78  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  53  79  57  80  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NOR
00004000
THEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172354 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME CU/AC AND AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO S TX...WITH A LARGE SUCKER
HOLE NOTED IN A 50NM WIDE AREA OVER SW AR/NW LA/E TX. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL IN WITH AN EXTENSIVE 9-11KFT CIG...ALTHOUGH LOWER CU
CIGS NEAR 4.5KFT WILL SHIFT E THIS EVENING AND THEN S
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS/VSBYS AND WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING FRIDAY OVER NE LA...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE
AC FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY
OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND OVER WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFTER 18Z...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS BUT AGAIN...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE INSERTING
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER W ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. LT NE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM A LARGER OFFSHORE TSTM COMPLEX...HAS
BEEN DRIFTING NWD ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL LA THIS AFTN. ADJUSTED
EVENING POPS TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER LOW TO DIG
SE INTO INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO AREA TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS FOR SHOWERS...AS
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WASH OUT AND NOT AFFECT THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND UNDERWAY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 80 FOR MUCH OF AREA BY THE WEEKEND...
UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH A SLOWER TREND ON NEXT UPPER LVL
SYSTEM...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF OK/TX COULD SEE A SHOWER BY
MIDDAY OR SO. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW LVL DYNAMCS
COULD MEAN ISOLD STG TO SVR STORMS TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO INDICATIONS OF AN EASTER REPEAT OF ANY
ORGANISED SVR WX OUTBREAK ARE SEEN ATTM. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  56  74  56  78  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DEQ  46  76  52  77  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  51  75  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
TYR  54  78  57  79  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  78  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  54  79  57  80  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172340
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AVIATION...AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172203
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
503 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHER
DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1010-1015 MB LOW
AND A 1040-45 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA WITH A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WITH THE 1028 MB PRESSURE LINE
INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST...SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATER AREAS OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS
BEEN JUST ENOUGH PERSISTENCE AND FETCH FROM STRONGER EAST WINDS TO
PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS MUCH AS 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
OF HANCOCK COUNTY AND SHELL BEACH ON LAKE BORGNE. HAVE ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE GULF FACING COAST FROM HANCOCK
COUNTY TO PLAQUEMINES PARISH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
IMPACT SHOULD BE NOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING SINCE THE HIGH TIDE WAS
ALREADY OCCURRING OR WILL EARLY TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WATER IN EVEN AS THE TIDE FALLS...SO THE NET
RESULT MAY BE ONLY A SLOW FALL UNTIL WINDS BECOME DUE NORTHEAST
LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

REGARDING RAINFALL...THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN STAYING
JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST AND MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...THE MODELS
INSIST A NORTHEAST PUSH TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL OCCUR AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TWO VORTICITY LOBES MOVES THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FROM NEAR LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH TO THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST WITH MODERATE AMOUNT`S AROUND ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE LOWER PEARL RIVER VALLEY
00003208
.
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. ONLY A
SLIGHT PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO 50S ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN LOW TO MID
70S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RULE SUNDAY...THEN A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
SOME CLOUDS AND NO RAIN. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFT
WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST REGION. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 22/TD

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED /MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS/...WITH PERIODS
OF LIFR POSSIBLE. VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF 3-6 MILES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DURING RAIN AND ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE THE LIFR CIGS DEVELOP. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL ALSO CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO
RISE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR KNEW LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT
KMSY...KHUM...AND KGPT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY GETS BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN SPACE
AND TIME THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL MARINE ZONES EXCEPT THE
TIDAL LAKES AND FAR WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THE OUTER WATERS MAY HAVE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE WATERS EAST OF THE
RIVER...THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EASTERN ZONES FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
SHOULD FALL TO MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN
TRANSITION TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH
GULF. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  71  53  78 /  30  20  10  10
BTR  57  74  57  79 /  40  20  10  10
ASD  58  72  55  76 /  40  20  10  10
MSY  60  73  58  75 /  50  20  10  10
GPT  60  72  57  76 /  50  30  10  10
PQL  57  71  51  75 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
229 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM A LARGER OFFSHORE TSTM COMPLEX...HAS
BEEN DRIFTING NWD ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL LA THIS AFTN. ADJUSTED
EVENING POPS TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER LOW TO DIG
SE INTO INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO AREA TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS FOR SHOWERS...AS
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WASH OUT AND NOT AFFECT THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND UNDERWAY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 80 FOR MUCH OF AREA BY THE WEEKEND...
UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH A SLOWER TREND ON NEXT UPPER LVL
SYSTEM...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF OK/TX COULD SEE A SHOWER BY
MIDDAY OR SO. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW LVL DYNAMCS
COULD MEAN ISOLD STG TO SVR STORMS TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO INDICATIONS OF AN EASTER REPEAT OF ANY
ORGANISED SVR WX OUTBREAK ARE SEEN ATTM./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  56  74  56  78  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DEQ  46  76  52  77  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  51  75  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
TYR  54  78  57  79  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  78  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  54  79  57  80  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE VFR CU FIELD TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCT -SHRA
POSSIBLE AFTER 18/00Z ACROSS AREA TERMINALS BUT INSUFFICIENT
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS LFK/MLU SITES.
OTHERWISE...SKIES TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST AFTER 18/12Z. ESE WINDS
5-10KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
5-10KTS ON FRIDAY. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  81  59 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  54  74  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  46  77  52  76  57 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  51  75  55  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  10
TYR  54  75  57  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
GGG  53  75  56  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  54  78  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171708 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

RADAR LOOPS INDICATED RAIN APPEARED TO BE COMING INTO SOUTHWEST
AREAS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND FASTER THAN FORECAST DURING
DAYTIME PERIOD TODAY...SO HAVE RAISED THE POP SUBSTANTIALLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TRENDS OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT RAINFALL
IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO BUMP UP THE POP 1
00004000
0 PERCENT OR SO THROUGH 7 PM. LATEST
12Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT IT IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW
AT 7 AM FRIDAY. WILL EVALUATE ALL THE NEW DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
OTHER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

MODEST IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR EXPECTED /MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS/...WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING RAIN AND ALSO
POSSIBLE WHERE THE LIFR CIGS DEVELOP. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF WILL ALSO CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO RISE AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 KNOTS NEAR KNEW LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KMSY...KHUM...AND KGPT. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

CMAN OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SO ADDED
THAT MARINE ZONE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF
COASTAL FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE MINNESOTA WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

LOCALLY...TEMPS DEFINITELY WARMER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY...BUT
MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GENERALLY SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE 50S
SOUTH. CLOUDS HAVE ROLLED IN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS
HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO SINCE MIDNIGHT
IN MANY PLACES.

SHORT TERM...
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. MOST
PLACES SHOULD START THE MORNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THOUGH THE CURRENT AIR MASS HAS ALREADY MODIFIED A BIT...WINDS
HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED FULLY ON SHORE TO BRING BACK THE WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE GULF. COMBINE THIS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND AM FORECASTING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TOP OUT NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING UPPER SHORT
WAVE. THERE ARE STILL SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM DESPITE BEING IN THE NEAR TERM. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACKS... BUT THE GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE BOTH
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MODEL FORECAST POPS
WITHIN THESE TWO MODELS. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AS IT KEEPS
THE LOW WEAKER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THUS KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP OFF SHORE.

HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE LATEST GFS/EURO BLEND WHICH DID REQUIRE A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN POPS...MAINLY FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL BE MENTIONED AT BEST. THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
TO SPEAK OF...AND EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PW WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS BY 06Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...QPF SHOULD BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS...BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS DEEP RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RISE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK FORCING AND NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO QUIET AND WARM WEATHER.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY
EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TODAY FOR
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ALL OF THE
TERMINALS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OVERNIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN MAGNITUDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  56  75  54 /  10  30  20  10
BTR  71  58  77  58 /  30  40  20  10
ASD  68  58  75  56 /  20  40  20   0
MSY  70  60  74  60 /  30  50  20   0
GPT  68  59  73  57 /  20  50  30  10
PQL  68  57  73  52 /  20  50  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING
NORTHEAST PROGRESS INTO DRIER AIRMASS...HOWEVER RAPID MOISTENING
OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEGIN TO
MOVE IT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS WERE
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING
NORTHEAST PROGRESS INTO DRIER AIRMASS...HOWEVER RAPID MOISTENING
OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEGIN TO
MOVE IT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS WERE
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTO
00004000
RMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171536
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171536
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171533
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1033 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE NEAR COAST CREATING CONVECTION OVER GULF...WITH SHOWERS
MOVG NEWD ONSHORE...BUT WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...AS SEEN ON 12Z LCH RAOB. ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS TO FCST FOR
THIS AFTN...TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS TRYING TO
WORK THEIR WAY FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
CLIMBING DESPITE THICKENING MID LVL CLOUDINESS...SO FOR NOW...WILL STILL
EXPECT AFTN TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM DESPITE THE REPEATED RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SE CO AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE BIG
BEND OF TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SRN WAVE SHOULD
MOVE WELL S OF THE CWA AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED MORE
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BREAKS OUT SOME
QPF ACROSS DEEP E TX LATER THIS MORNING BUT NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE REALLY PICKING UP ON THIS. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE DAYTIME HRS DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE CO SHORTWAVE DIVES SE TOWARDS THE
CWA AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE TX TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE QUITE MEAGER SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE E BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TRANSITION
TO SWLY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
APPROACHES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE W. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAIN IN THE
00004000
 AREA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE CWA SO HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS. STILL...A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  76  57  81 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  54  74  56  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  77  52  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  70  51  75  55  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  50  75  54  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
TYR  70  54  75  57  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  70  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
LFK  71  54  78  57  80 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171241
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  57  77  58 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  73  59  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  71  56  76  57 /  20  20  20  10
KLFT  72  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171241
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  57  77  58 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  73  59  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  71  56  76  57 /  20  20  20  10
KLFT  72  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  59  78  60 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  73  59  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  71  56  76  57 /  10  20  20  10
KLFT  72  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS T
00004000
HIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  59  78  60 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  73  59  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  71  56  76  57 /  10  20  20  10
KLFT  72  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  57  77  58 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  73  59  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  71  56  76  57 /  10  20  20  10
KLFT  72  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  57  77  58 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  73  59  79  60 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  71  56  76  57 /  10  20  20  10
KLFT  72  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170918
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
418 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM DESPITE THE REPEATED RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SE CO AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE BIG
BEND OF TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SRN WAVE SHOULD
MOVE WELL S OF THE CWA AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED MORE
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BREAKS OUT SOME
QPF ACROSS DEEP E TX LATER THIS MORNING BUT NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE REALLY PICKING UP ON THIS. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE DAYTIME HRS DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE CO SHORTWAVE DIVES SE TOWARDS THE
CWA AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE TX TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE QUITE MEAGER SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE E BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TRANSITION
TO SWLY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
APPROACHES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE W. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAIN IN THE AREA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE CWA SO HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS. STILL...A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  76  57  81 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  54  74  56  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  77  52  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  70  51  75  55  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  50  75  54  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
TYR  70  54  75  57  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  70  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
LFK  71  54  78  57  80 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE MINNESOTA WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

LOCALLY...TEMPS DEFINITELY WARMER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY...BUT
MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GENERALLY SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE 50S
SOUTH. CLOUDS HAVE ROLLED IN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS
HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO SINCE MIDNIGHT
IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. MOST
PLACES SHOULD START THE MORNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THOUGH THE CURRENT AIR MASS HAS ALREADY MODIFIED A BIT...WINDS
HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED FULLY ON SHORE TO BRING BACK THE WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE GULF. COMBINE THIS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND AM FORECASTING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TOP OUT NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING UPPER SHORT
WAVE. THERE ARE STILL SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM DESPITE BEING IN THE NEAR TERM. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACKS... BUT THE GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS AND EURO HAVE BOTH
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MODEL FORECAST POPS
WITHIN THESE TWO MODELS. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AS IT KEEPS
THE LOW WEAKER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THUS KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP OFF SHORE.

HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE LATEST GFS/EURO BLEND WHICH DID REQUIRE A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN POPS...MAINLY FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL BE MENTIONED AT BEST. THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
TO SPEAK OF...AND EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PW WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS BY 06Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...QPF SHOULD BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS...BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

.LONG TERM...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS DEEP RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RISE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK FORCING AND NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO QUIET AND WARM WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY
EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TODAY FOR
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS O
00004000
F THE AREA...AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE ALL OF THE
TERMINALS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OVERNIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN MAGNITUDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  56  75  54 /  10  30  20  10
BTR  71  58  77  58 /  10  40  20  10
ASD  68  58  75  56 /  20  40  20   0
MSY  70  60  74  60 /  20  50  20   0
GPT  68  59  73  57 /  20  50  30  10
PQL  68  57  73  52 /  20  50  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170505 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
WHILE THE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS HAS SHIFTED E OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF THICK CIRRUS OVER SCNTRL/SE TX WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NE INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK...ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ENTER THE SRN
PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF HIGH MVFR
CIGS AROUND/JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AND THUS HAVE
ONLY TEMPOED MENTION IN FOR THE TYR/LFK TERMINALS BEFORE ANY LOW
CIGS LIFT/BECOME VFR. THE MORE EXTENSIVE VFR CU FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE W OVER CNTRL TX...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER E AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGINS TO MOISTEN UNDER
A SERLY FLOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN AC OVER THE
REGION...IN ADDITION TO THE CU FIELD WHICH MAY THICKEN OVER NCNTRL
LA. CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT -SHRA AFTER 00Z FRIDAY OVER EXTREME
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFFECTING
CIGS/VSBYS PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. LIGHT SE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ESE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS EVENING WITH EXITING
CIRRUS EAST AND A BIT MORE TO DRAPE DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN THE COMING HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FROM SW TO N. JUST A FEW TWEAKS
TO SKY IN THE ZONES AND A COUPLE BUMPS DOWN AND ONE UP ON
TEMPERATURES OVER MAINLY TX AS THE GOING FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD ORDER WITH A LIGHT SE WIND. OVERALL...WE ARE HALF WAY BACK TO
AVERAGE AFTER LAST NIGHTS CHILL IT FEELS NICE OUT THIS EVENING. WE
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
RIGHT BACK THERE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK
INTO THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A LIGHT AND BRIEF NORTHERLY
WIND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  70  53  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
MLU  42  69  55  75  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  41  66  52  77  52 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  42  67  53  76  55 /  10  10  20  10  10
ELD  40  68  52  76  54 /  10  10  20  10  10
TYR  46  70  55  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GGG  44  70  54  74  56 /  10  10  20  10  10
LFK  47  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...A STRATOCU DECK PARKED JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
AND LOWER TO MVFR AT BPT AND LCH LATER TNITE AND LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING.
THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR
STROCU CIGS SHOULD RULE BY NOON FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF A TROF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...WHILE STRATOCU IS NOTED
OFF THE SERN LA COAST PLUS FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST ATTM. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
STRATOCU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE
UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
FURTHER TEMP FALLS TONIGHT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM...HAVE A GOOD EVENING.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...A STRATOCU DECK PARKED JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
AND LOWER TO MVFR AT BPT AND LCH LATER TNITE AND LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING.
THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR
STROCU CIGS SHOULD RULE BY NOON FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF A TROF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...WHILE STRATOCU IS NOTED
OFF THE SERN LA COAST PLUS FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST ATTM. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
STRATOCU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE
UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
FURTHER TEMP FALLS TONIGHT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM...HAVE A GOOD EVENING.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...WHILE STRATOCU IS NOTED
OFF THE SERN LA COAST PLUS FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST ATTM. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
STRATOCU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE
UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
FURTHER TEMP FALLS TONIGHT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM...HAVE A GOOD EVENING.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...WHILE STRATOCU IS NOTED
OFF THE SERN LA COAST PLUS FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST ATTM. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
STRATOCU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE
UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
FURTHER TEMP FALLS TONIGHT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM...HAVE A GOOD EVENING.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

00004000

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...WHILE STRATOCU IS NOTED
OFF THE SERN LA COAST PLUS FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST ATTM. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
STRATOCU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE
UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
FURTHER TEMP FALLS TONIGHT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM...HAVE A GOOD EVENING.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS IS THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...WHILE STRATOCU IS NOTED
OFF THE SERN LA COAST PLUS FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST ATTM. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE
STRATOCU WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE
UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
FURTHER TEMP FALLS TONIGHT.

NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM...HAVE A GOOD EVENING.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW INFLUENCED BY DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, RESULTING IN STRATOCU CIGS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS WHICH WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER TNITE. VFR
CIGS ON THURSDAY WILL INCLUDE AEX WITH MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS EVENING WITH EXITING
CIRRUS EAST AND A BIT MORE TO DRAPE DEEP E TX AND TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY IN THE COMING HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FROM SW TO N. JUST A FEW TWEAKS
TO SKY IN THE ZONES AND A COUPLE BUMPS DOWN AND ONE UP ON
TEMPERATURES OVER MAINLY TX AS THE GOING FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD ORDER WITH A LIGHT SE WIND. OVERALL...WE ARE HALF WAY BACK TO
AVERAGE AFTER LAST NIGHTS CHILL IT FEELS NICE OUT THIS EVENING. WE
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
RIGHT BACK THERE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK
INTO THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A LIGHT AND BRIEF NORTHERLY
WIND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CIRRUS SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION FROM W TO E
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...WITH A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN
SOME MVFR CIGS ADVECTING N ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. ANY MVFR CIGS
THOUGH SHOULD LIFT/BECOME VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW VFR
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY
OVER E TX/SE OK. FARTHER E...A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING INTERACTS WITH A STEADILY
MOISTENING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT -SHRA
AFFECTING SE OK BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SW AR/EXTREME NE TX/NRN LA THURSDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS
5-10KTS OVER E TX TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SE WINDS
ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME 5-10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MS RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT SHIFTING EAST...WITH
SE WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH VERY STG WIND SHIFT...BUT LACKING IN ANY TEMP OR DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...PROGGED TO WASH OUT AS IT
APPROACHES AREA. DESPITE THIS LEFTOVER FOCUSING
BOUNDARY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER THURSDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO VERY ISOLD FOR LATE IN WEEK.
WENT WITH COOLER GFS FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS...AS NAM SEEMED TOO
WARM FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNCERTAIN CLOUD COVER NEAR
REMMANTS OF BOUNDARY. DEEPER TROUGHING BEGINNING ON WEEKEND WITH
EASTER SUNDAY POSSIBLY HAVING SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DOES
NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE ANOTHER SVR WX EASTER WITH WEAK
LOW LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES IN MID LVLS. MONDAY SHOWING
ANOTHER FIZZLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
IN...UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY AROUND TUESDAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  70  53  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
MLU  42  69  55  75  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  41  66  52  77  52 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  42  67  53  76  55 /  10  10  20  10  10
ELD  40  68  52  76  54 /  10  10  20  10  10
TYR  46  70  55  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GGG  44  70  54  74  56 /  10  10  20  10  10
LFK  47  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW INFLUENCED BY DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, RESULTING IN STRATOCU CIGS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS WHICH WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER TNITE. VFR
CIGS ON THURSDAY WILL INCLUDE AEX WITH MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 162335 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
635 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CIRRUS SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION FROM W TO E
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...WITH A SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN
SOME MVFR CIGS ADVECTING N ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. ANY MVFR CIGS
THOUGH SHOULD LIFT/BECOME VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW VFR
CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY
OVER E TX/SE OK. FARTHER E...A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING INTERACTS WITH A STEADILY
MOISTENING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT -SHRA
AFFECTING SE OK BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SW AR/EXTREME NE TX/NRN LA THURSDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS
5-10KTS OVER E TX TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SE WINDS
ELSEWHERE...WILL BECOME 5-10KTS AREAWIDE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MS RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT SHIFTING EAST...WITH
SE WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH VERY STG WIND SHIFT...BUT LACKING IN ANY TEMP OR DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...PROGGED TO WASH OUT AS IT
APPROACHES AREA. DESPITE THIS LEFTOVER FOCUSING
BOUNDARY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER THURSDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO VERY ISOLD FOR LATE IN WEEK.
WENT WITH COOLER GFS FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS...AS NAM SEEMED TOO
WARM FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNCERTAIN CLOUD COVER NEAR
REMMANTS OF BOUNDARY. DEEPER TROUGHING BEGINNING ON WEEKEND WITH
EASTER SUNDAY POSSIBLY HAVING SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DOES
NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE ANOTHER SVR WX EASTER WITH WEAK
LOW LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES IN MID LVLS. MONDAY SHOWING
ANOTHER FIZZLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
IN...UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY AROUND TUESDAY. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  70  53  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
MLU  42  69  55  75  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  41  66  52  77  52 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  42  67  53  76  55 /  10  10  20  10  10
ELD  40  68  52  76  54 /  10  10  20  10  10
TYR  47  70  55  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GGG  43  70  54  74  56 /  10  10  20  10  10
LFK  48  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KL
00002740
IX 162039
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THIS SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN LOW HUMIDITIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PULL TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRINGING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE A
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A MARINE
LAYER AIRMASS MOVES IN. A FEW SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS INSTABILITY BELOW A MID-
LEVEL CAP INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. INCREASED
OMEGA AND A HIGHER PW AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE BATON ROUGE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY PULL EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH READINGS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EACH DAY. THESE READINGS
WILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SLIDE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS. 32

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z. MID
LAYER WILL STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING BTR
FIRST AND OTHER TAF POINTS BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THE TAF
SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
CONTINUED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW AND TRANSIT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS TO THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 7
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SURFACE RIDGING
SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL
FALL TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  69  54  75 /  10  10  20  20
BTR  48  70  58  78 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  48  68  56  74 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  53  69  61  73 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  53  69  59  72 /  10  10  40  20
PQL  48  68  56  71 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162000
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH WINDS VEERING TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
LOCALLY. THIS HAS BEGUN A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. PWAT ON
THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS BELOW 0.2" AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 1" AND PERHAPS MORE BY 0Z TOMORROW EVENING. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES A WEAK FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE REGION WHILE
LIFT INCREASES WITH A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING.
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A NE DIRECTION AND
PWAT VALUES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL, BUT COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR EASTER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL AND DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY ISOLD
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX. DURING THE WEEKEND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING KEEPING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA A MODERATE EAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION, HOWEVER AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RESUME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  58  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  56  73  59  78  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  46  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  50  71  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161920
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
220 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MS RIVER VALLEY LAST NIGHT SHIFTING EAST...WITH
SE WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH VERY STG WIND SHIFT...BUT LACKING IN ANY TEMP OR DEW
POINT GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...PROGGED TO WASH OUT AS IT
APPROACHES AREA. DESPITE THIS LEFTOVER FOCUSING
BOUNDARY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER THURSDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO VERY ISOLD FOR LATE IN WEEK.
WENT WITH COOLER GFS FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS...AS NAM SEEMED TOO
WARM FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNCERTAIN CLOUD COVER NEAR
REMMANTS OF BOUNDARY. DEEPER TROUGHING BEGINNING ON WEEKEND WITH
EASTER SUNDAY POSSIBLY HAVING SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DOES
NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO BE ANOTHER SVR WX EASTER WITH WEAK
LOW LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES IN MID LVLS. MONDAY SHOWING
ANOTHER FIZZLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
IN...UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY AROUND TUESDAY./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  70  53  77  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
MLU  42  69  55  75  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  41  66  52  77  52 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  42  67  53  76  55 /  10  10  20  10  10
ELD  40  68  52  76  54 /  10  10  20  10  10
TYR  47  70  55  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GGG  43  70  54  74  56 /  10  10  20  10  10
LFK  48  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161825
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
125 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 16/18Z TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED OVER THE E GREAT
LAKES REGION AND RIDGE AXIS REACHED SW ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE N CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY S WINDS OF 8-16 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
STRONGER WINDS OVER E AND NE TX INTO SE OK...AND THE IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR AND NW LA. THE WINDS WILL RELAX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS WHILE STILL A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE
W RANGING FROM NEAR CALM TO S TO SE NEAR 7 KNOTS. HIGH AND
POSSIBLY MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AFTER 17/00Z FOLLOWED BY
RETURN
00003AF0
ING GULF MOISTURE AFTER 17/07Z INTO TX AND LA AND AR NEAR
17/13Z. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 15-25 HND FEET WILL BE MOVING INTO
E TX AFFECTING KLFK...KGGG...AND KTYR BETWEEN 17/08-17/12Z AND
LIFTING TO VFR BY MID MORNING AROUND 17/14-17/16Z WITH BROKEN
CEILINGS NEAR 35 HND-4 KFT. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WARMING STRONGLY
IN VERY DRY AIR MASS. MARGINAL UPPER LVL MOISTURE TO THE WEST WILL
BRING IN THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS...WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. SE
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY ALREADY AT 20 KTS. 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING EASILY
ACHIEVE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS BEEN UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND HAVE ALSO REMOVED FROST FROM THE
WX GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST ISSUANCE. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAY CANCEL AFTER SUNRISE IF
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED IN THE WARNING AREA. COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT WIND SPEEDS
HAVE NOT DIMINISHED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S. CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
ALSO LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN
HRS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL
ONCE AGAIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 40 DEGREES F ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY
FCST WITH THE GFS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
QPF SIGNALS ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE MODELS LIKELY DUE TO
VERY WEAK FORCING AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SCT SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY DRY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWLY. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY AS SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP W OF THE REGION AND MOVE INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS SFC BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE NW AND BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO BE N OF THE AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED MONDAY IN LATER FCSTS AS THE GFS/ECMWF DO NOT MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A RATHER ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  45  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
MLU  64  42  70  55  74 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEQ  64  41  67  50  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
TXK  65  42  68  51  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
ELD  63  40  69  50  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
TYR  67  49  71  55  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
GGG  66  45  71  54  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
LFK  70  49  72  55  76 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161615
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING TO 6 KTS OR LESS. SCT
CLOUDS OFFSHORE MAY MAKE IT WAY INLAND OVER SE TX/SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR SE TX/S LA TERMINALS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A CHILLY AND IN SOME CASES FROSTY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 50. A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH NON-FREEZING BUT RECORD LOWS
REPORTED AT KLCH AND KAEX ASOS SITES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM UP THIS MORNING SO WENT AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING FOR CNTL LA.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  72  56  78  60 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  56  73  58  78  62 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  45  71  54  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  48  71  57  77  58 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161615
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING TO 6 KTS OR LESS. SCT
CLOUDS OFFSHORE MAY MAKE IT WAY INLAND OVER SE TX/SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR SE TX/S LA TERMINALS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A CHILLY AND IN SOME CASES FROSTY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 50. A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH NON-FREEZING BUT RECORD LOWS
REPORTED AT KLCH AND KAEX ASOS SITES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM UP THIS MORNING SO WENT AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING FOR CNTL LA.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  72  56  78  60 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  56  73  58  78  62 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  45  71  54  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  48  71  57  77  58 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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