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0000B948000
FXUS64 KSHV 181038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
FOUR STATE AREA. THE KSHV 88D RADAR IS SHOWING MOST COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
COUNTIES WITH DEPARTING COVERAGE FOR NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOME OF THE TEXAS SOUTHERN FLANK PULLING ACROSS
TOLEDO BEND. OVERNIGHT...WE WERE CUT OFF FROM DECENT GULF
MOISTURE BY A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST ALONG I-10.

LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR...THE THICK BELT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS STILL BACK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND LIFTING THIS WAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY EDGING OFF THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO CO/NB/KN NOW THANKS TO ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE NW
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. SO TODAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDE
SPREAD COVERAGE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE AND THEN ON
SUNDAY WE ARE SLIGHT/ENHANCED FOR SEVERE WITH THE COLD FRONT BY
MORE LIMITED WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE. OUR DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SOME MORE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING WITH
SOME LIFT WHILE STILL UNDER THE UPPER DIVERGENT TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SPC IS LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MCS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH QPF. LITTLE CHANGE WITH A COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  62  83  56 /  70  50  20  20
MLU  76  63  81  58 /  80  60  40  30
DEQ  76  58  79  50 /  60  40  30  10
TXK  75  59  80  53 /  60  40  30  20
ELD  75  60  81  54 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  78  61  82  53 /  60  40  20  10
GGG  77  61  82  54 /  60  40  20  10
LFK  78  64  85  57 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 181038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
FOUR STATE AREA. THE KSHV 88D RADAR IS SHOWING MOST COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
COUNTIES WITH DEPARTING COVERAGE FOR NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOME OF THE TEXAS SOUTHERN FLANK PULLING ACROSS
TOLEDO BEND. OVERNIGHT...WE WERE CUT OFF FROM DECENT GULF
MOISTURE BY A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST ALONG I-10.

LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR...THE THICK BELT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS STILL BACK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND LIFTING THIS WAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY EDGING OFF THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO CO/NB/KN NOW THANKS TO ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE NW
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. SO TODAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDE
SPREAD COVERAGE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE AND THEN ON
SUNDAY WE ARE SLIGHT/ENHANCED FOR SEVERE WITH THE COLD FRONT BY
MORE LIMITED WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE. OUR DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SOME MORE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING WITH
SOME LIFT WHILE STILL UNDER THE UPPER DIVERGENT TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SPC IS LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MCS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH QPF. LITTLE CHANGE WITH A COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  62  83  56 /  70  50  20  20
MLU  76  63  81  58 /  80  60  40  30
DEQ  76  58  79  50 /  60  40  30  10
TXK  75  59  80  53 /  60  40  30  20
ELD  75  60  81  54 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  78  61  82  53 /  60  40  20  10
GGG  77  61  82  54 /  60  40  20  10
LFK  78  64  85  57 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 181038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
FOUR STATE AREA. THE KSHV 88D RADAR IS SHOWING MOST COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
COUNTIES WITH DEPARTING COVERAGE FOR NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOME OF THE TEXAS SOUTHERN FLANK PULLING ACROSS
TOLEDO BEND. OVERNIGHT...WE WERE CUT OFF FROM DECENT GULF
MOISTURE BY A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST ALONG I-10.

LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR...THE THICK BELT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS STILL BACK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND LIFTING THIS WAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY EDGING OFF THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO CO/NB/KN NOW THANKS TO ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE NW
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. SO TODAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDE
SPREAD COVERAGE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE AND THEN ON
SUNDAY WE ARE SLIGHT/ENHANCED FOR SEVERE WITH THE COLD FRONT BY
MORE LIMITED WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE. OUR DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SOME MORE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING WITH
SOME LIFT WHILE STILL UNDER THE UPPER DIVERGENT TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SPC IS LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MCS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH QPF. LITTLE CHANGE WITH A COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  62  83  56 /  70  50  20  20
MLU  76  63  81  58 /  80  60  40  30
DEQ  76  58  79  50 /  60  40  30  10
TXK  75  59  80  53 /  60  40  30  20
ELD  75  60  81  54 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  78  61  82  53 /  60  40  20  10
GGG  77  61  82  54 /  60  40  20  10
LFK  78  64  85  57 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KSHV 181038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
FOUR STATE AREA. THE KSHV 88D RADAR IS SHOWING MOST COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
COUNTIES WITH DEPARTING COVERAGE FOR NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOME OF THE TEXAS SOUTHERN FLANK PULLING ACROSS
TOLEDO BEND. OVERNIGHT...WE WERE CUT OFF FROM DECENT GULF
MOISTURE BY A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST ALONG I-10.

LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR...THE THICK BELT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS STILL BACK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND LIFTING THIS WAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY EDGING OFF THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO CO/NB/KN NOW THANKS TO ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ON THE NW
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. SO TODAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDE
SPREAD COVERAGE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE AND THEN ON
SUNDAY WE ARE SLIGHT/ENHANCED FOR SEVERE WITH THE COLD FRONT BY
MORE LIMITED WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE. OUR DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SOME MORE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING WITH
SOME LIFT WHILE STILL UNDER THE UPPER DIVERGENT TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SPC IS LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MCS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH QPF. LITTLE CHANGE WITH A COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  62  83  56 /  70  50  20  20
MLU  76  63  81  58 /  80  60  40  30
DEQ  76  58  79  50 /  60  40  30  10
TXK  75  59  80  53 /  60  40  30  20
ELD  75  60  81  54 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  78  61  82  53 /  60  40  20  10
GGG  77  61  82  54 /  60  40  20  10
LFK  78  64  85  57 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180936
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THE REMAINS OF AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHERE
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COASTLINE
BEFORE DAYBREAK. UNFORTUNATELY...STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF INCREASED VORTICITY ARE SWEEPING TOWARD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE REGION. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2
AROUND MIDDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE STRONGEST FORCING
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND HIGHLY DIFLUENT FLOW.
THUS...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE LIMITED
GIVEN THE LACK CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...A SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA OVER THE AREA...AND MORE FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SPILL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. OVERALL LIFT WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. OVERALL...THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY REMINISCENT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN/SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TAF AIRPORTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS. THE LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AND VERY LOW
CIGS AT KMCB AND KGPT SHOULD MIX OUT BEFORE 10-11Z AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...HOWEVER AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH
OF TODAY WITH SOME TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER EARLY TODAY ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE WINDS WITH MUCH
STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORM LINES AND
CLUSTERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN GRADIENT FLOW TOMORROW COULD PUSH
WINDS IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  64  84  61 / 100  70  20  20
BTR  77  65  85  62 / 100  70  10  20
ASD  77  66  84  65 / 100  80  20  20
MSY  78  68  85  68 / 100  80  20  20
GPT  77  69  81  69 / 100  90  30  20
PQL  77  66  82  67 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180936
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THE REMAINS OF AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHERE
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OTHER
THAN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COASTLINE
BEFORE DAYBREAK. UNFORTUNATELY...STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF INCREASED VORTICITY ARE SWEEPING TOWARD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE REGION. OVERALL SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2
AROUND MIDDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE STRONGEST FORCING
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND HIGHLY DIFLUENT FLOW.
THUS...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE LIMITED
GIVEN THE LACK CAPE AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD OF MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE LOW.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...A SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA OVER THE AREA...AND MORE FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SPILL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. OVERALL LIFT WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK OFF SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. OVERALL...THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY REMINISCENT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN/SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL IMPACT THE TAF AIRPORTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS. THE LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AND VERY LOW
CIGS AT KMCB AND KGPT SHOULD MIX OUT BEFORE 10-11Z AS THE RAIN MOVES
IN...HOWEVER AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH
OF TODAY WITH SOME TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER EARLY TODAY ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE WINDS WITH MUCH
STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORM LINES AND
CLUSTERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN GRADIENT FLOW TOMORROW COULD PUSH
WINDS IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  64  84  61 / 100  70  20  20
BTR  77  65  85  62 / 100  70  10  20
ASD  77  66  84  65 / 100  80  20  20
MSY  78  68  85  68 / 100  80  20  20
GPT  77  69  81  69 / 100  90  30  20
PQL  77  66  82  67 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EA
00004000
RLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONCERNING AVIATION
VARIABLES AS CURRENT CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE FOLLOWING WHAT SHORT
TERM PROGS SUGGEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM SW LA/SE TX EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST
INTO NE TX ATTM. A BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS RACING EASTWARD ALONG
THE S LA COAST AND ITS THIS CONVECTION THAT IS CUTTING OFF INFLOW
INTO WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX
ATTM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE MOVING THIS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. UNLESS WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX...THEN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST...COULD BE JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

REGARDLESS...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE 00Z
PACKAGE WITH VCTS TSTMS ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO
WITH TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING TSRA BY SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...DID NOT INTRODUCE VCTS UNTIL MID MORNING WITH
PREVAILING TSRA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN.

OBVIOUSLY...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH EXPECTED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR SATURDAY. INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  80  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  80  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONCERNING AVIATION
VARIABLES AS CURRENT CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE FOLLOWING WHAT SHORT
TERM PROGS SUGGEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM SW LA/SE TX EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST
INTO NE TX ATTM. A BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS RACING EASTWARD ALONG
THE S LA COAST AND ITS THIS CONVECTION THAT IS CUTTING OFF INFLOW
INTO WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX
ATTM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE MOVING THIS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. UNLESS WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX...THEN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST...COULD BE JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

REGARDLESS...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE 00Z
PACKAGE WITH VCTS TSTMS ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO
WITH TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING TSRA BY SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...DID NOT INTRODUCE VCTS UNTIL MID MORNING WITH
PREVAILING TSRA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN.

OBVIOUSLY...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH EXPECTED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR SATURDAY. INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  80  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  80  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONCERNING AVIATION
VARIABLES AS CURRENT CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE FOLLOWING WHAT SHORT
TERM PROGS SUGGEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM SW LA/SE TX EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST
INTO NE TX ATTM. A BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS RACING EASTWARD ALONG
THE S LA COAST AND ITS THIS CONVECTION THAT IS CUTTING OFF INFLOW
INTO WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX
ATTM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE MOVING THIS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. UNLESS WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX...THEN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST...COULD BE JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

REGARDLESS...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE 00Z
PACKAGE WITH VCTS TSTMS ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO
WITH TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING TSRA BY SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...DID NOT INTRODUCE VCTS UNTIL MID MORNING WITH
PREVAILING TSRA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN.

OBVIOUSLY...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH EXPECTED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR SATURDAY. INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  80  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  80  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONCERNING AVIATION
VARIABLES AS CURRENT CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE FOLLOWING WHAT SHORT
TERM PROGS SUGGEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM SW LA/SE TX EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST
INTO NE TX ATTM. A BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS RACING EASTWARD ALONG
THE S LA COAST AND ITS THIS CONVECTION THAT IS CUTTING OFF INFLOW
INTO WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX
ATTM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE MOVING THIS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. UNLESS WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX...THEN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST...COULD BE JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

REGARDLESS...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE 00Z
PACKAGE WITH VCTS TSTMS ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO
WITH TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING TSRA BY SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...DID NOT INTRODUCE VCTS UNTIL MID MORNING WITH
PREVAILING TSRA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN.

OBVIOUSLY...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH EXPECTED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR SATURDAY. INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  80  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  80  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONCERNING AVIATION
VARIABLES AS CURRENT CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE FOLLOWING WHAT SHORT
TERM PROGS SUGGEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM SW LA/SE TX EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST
INTO NE TX ATTM. A BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS RACING EASTWARD ALONG
THE S LA COAST AND ITS THIS CONVECTION THAT IS CUTTING OFF INFLOW
INTO WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX
ATTM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE MOVING THIS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. UNLESS WE SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX...THEN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST...COULD BE JUST SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

REGARDLESS...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE 00Z
PACKAGE WITH VCTS TSTMS ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS OR SO
WITH TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING TSRA BY SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...DID NOT INTRODUCE VCTS UNTIL MID MORNING WITH
PREVAILING TSRA FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN.

OBVIOUSLY...EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH EXPECTED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR SATURDAY. INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  80  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50 
00000CC0
 40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  80  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180310
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1010 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR SATURDAY. INCLUDED
THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MANY AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE CLOUD COVER
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
MEAGER CU FIELD REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION BUT HIGH MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. SHORT TERM
PROGS WANT TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOR
THIS FORECAST...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT TYR BY 06Z AND A LITTLE
LATER AS YOU MOVE EAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. SHOULD
HAVE PREVAILING TSRA ACROSS ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BETWEEN
12-16Z WITH THE EASTERN TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE CONVECTION BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL BUT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN
HOURS ON SAT. EXPECT CRATERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF INTO THE SW FLOW OVER TX
HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO PUSH NEWD THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER
WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL SFC FORCING OR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY ...SATURATED SOILS FROM
THURSDAY`S RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RUNOFF RATES...AND
THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE BY LATE SATURDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO FINALLY OPEN UP
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
HEATING HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...SPC HAS OUR REGION
UNDER SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP LEAVING US UNDER DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY 
00004000
MONDAY MORNING.

OUR DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. FROM HERE ON
OUT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION YET AGAIN...LEADING
TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

FOR TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN AFTER FROPA FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER VERY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  80  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  80  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  80  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  80  80  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180234
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180234
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180234
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 180021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED
00004000
 MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
MEAGER CU FIELD REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION BUT HIGH MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. SHORT TERM
PROGS WANT TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOR
THIS FORECAST...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT TYR BY 06Z AND A LITTLE
LATER AS YOU MOVE EAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. SHOULD
HAVE PREVAILING TSRA ACROSS ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BETWEEN
12-16Z WITH THE EASTERN TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE CONVECTION BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL BUT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN
HOURS ON SAT. EXPECT CRATERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF INTO THE SW FLOW OVER TX
HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO PUSH NEWD THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER
WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL SFC FORCING OR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY ...SATURATED SOILS FROM
THURSDAY`S RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RUNOFF RATES...AND
THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE BY LATE SATURDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO FINALLY OPEN UP
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
HEATING HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...SPC HAS OUR REGION
UNDER SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP LEAVING US UNDER DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUR DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. FROM HERE ON
OUT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION YET AGAIN...LEADING
TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

FOR TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN AFTER FROPA FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER VERY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /12/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  70  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  70  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  70  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  70  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
MEAGER CU FIELD REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION BUT HIGH MID CLOUD AND
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. SHORT TERM
PROGS WANT TO WEAKEN THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOR
THIS FORECAST...HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT TYR BY 06Z AND A LITTLE
LATER AS YOU MOVE EAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. SHOULD
HAVE PREVAILING TSRA ACROSS ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BETWEEN
12-16Z WITH THE EASTERN TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE CONVECTION BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL BUT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN
HOURS ON SAT. EXPECT CRATERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH THE
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF INTO THE SW FLOW OVER TX
HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO PUSH NEWD THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER
WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL SFC FORCING OR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY ...SATURATED SOILS FROM
THURSDAY`S RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RUNOFF RATES...AND
THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE BY LATE SATURDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO FINALLY OPEN UP
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
HEATING HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...SPC HAS OUR REGION
UNDER SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP LEAVING US UNDER DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUR DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. FROM HERE ON
OUT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION YET AGAIN...LEADING
TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

FOR TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN AFTER FROPA FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER VERY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /12/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  77  62  83 /  70  70  50  20
MLU  64  76  63  81 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  57  79 /  60  50  40  30
TXK  63  75  60  80 /  70  50  40  30
ELD  63  75  60  80 /  70  70  50  40
TYR  64  77  61  82 /  70  50  40  20
GGG  65  78  61  82 /  70  50  40  20
LFK  67  78  64  85 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 172044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINED OFFSHORE TODAY...CUTTING OFF THE BEST
MOISTURE FEED TO THE AREA. THIS PROVIDED US A NICER DAY THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH I DO NOT THINK IS GOING TO GATHER TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS. RADAR ONLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES GOT INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION FOR THE AREA BEFORE
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN MCS THIS EVENING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN
RISE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE A BIT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON THE FRONT END AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH A
GOOD BIT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE REMAINING LOUISIANA PARISHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK ON SUNDAY...BUT IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MSY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z SUNDAY SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH WITH VERY LITTLE
TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPH. EXPECT ANY CO
00004000
NVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN EXTENT.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. DRIER
AIR ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

FINALLY...A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS
SOLUTION RUNS SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. DEFINITELY WILL SEE SOME LOWER HUMIDITIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND TO
THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF GOING
QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR BATON ROUGE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

TOOK MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TERMINALS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A FORECAST AREA OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z WITH TSRA CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
FROM 12Z TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BKN/OVC010 SATURDAY
MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VRB TONIGHT BECOMING
SRLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES APPROACHES. VSBY MAINLY P6SM HOWEVER
LOWER 3 TO 5SM DURING PERIODS OF TSTMS. /KEG/

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET CONTINUE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND INCREASING TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT FOLLOWING THE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/KEG/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  77  65  82 /  70  90  70  40
BTR  68  79  65  83 /  70  90  70  30
ASD  68  79  68  82 /  70  90  70  40
MSY  70  79  69  82 /  70  90  60  40
GPT  68  76  70  79 /  60  80  70  50
PQL  68  79  70  81 /  60  80  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINED OFFSHORE TODAY...CUTTING OFF THE BEST
MOISTURE FEED TO THE AREA. THIS PROVIDED US A NICER DAY THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH I DO NOT THINK IS GOING TO GATHER TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS. RADAR ONLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES GOT INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION FOR THE AREA BEFORE
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN MCS THIS EVENING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN
RISE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE A BIT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON THE FRONT END AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH A
GOOD BIT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE REMAINING LOUISIANA PARISHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK ON SUNDAY...BUT IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MSY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z SUNDAY SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH WITH VERY LITTLE
TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPH. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN EXTENT.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. DRIER
AIR ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

FINALLY...A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS
SOLUTION RUNS SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. DEFINITELY WILL SEE SOME LOWER HUMIDITIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND TO
THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF GOING
QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR BATON ROUGE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

TOOK MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TERMINALS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A FORECAST AREA OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z WITH TSRA CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
FROM 12Z TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BKN/OVC010 SATURDAY
MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VRB TONIGHT BECOMING
SRLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES APPROACHES. VSBY MAINLY P6SM HOWEVER
LOWER 3 TO 5SM DURING PERIODS OF TSTMS. /KEG/

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET CONTINUE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND INCREASING TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT FOLLOWING THE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/KEG/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  77  65  82 /  70  90  70  40
BTR  68  79  65  83 /  70  90  70  30
ASD  68  79  68  82 /  70  90  70  40
MSY  70  79  69  82 /  70  90  60  40
GPT  68  76  70  79 /  60  80  70  50
PQL  68  79  70  81 /  60  80  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINED OFFSHORE TODAY...CUTTING OFF THE BEST
MOISTURE FEED TO THE AREA. THIS PROVIDED US A NICER DAY THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH I DO NOT THINK IS GOING TO GATHER TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS. RADAR ONLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES GOT INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION FOR THE AREA BEFORE
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN MCS THIS EVENING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN
RISE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE A BIT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON THE FRONT END AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH A
GOOD BIT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE REMAINING LOUISIANA PARISHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK ON SUNDAY...BUT IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MSY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z SUNDAY SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH WITH VERY LITTLE
TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPH. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN EXTENT.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. DRIER
AIR ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

FINALLY...A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS
SOLUTION RUNS SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. DEFINITELY WILL SEE SOME LOWER HUMIDITIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND TO
THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF GOING
QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR BATON ROUGE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

TOOK MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TERMINALS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A FORECAST AREA OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z WITH TSRA CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
FROM 12Z TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BKN/OVC010 SATURDAY
MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VRB TONIGHT BECOMING
SRLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES APPROACHES. VSBY MAINLY P6SM HOWEVER
LOWER 3 TO 5SM DURING PERIODS OF TSTMS. /KEG/

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET CONTINUE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND INCREASING TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT FOLLOWING THE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/KEG/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  77  65  82 /  70  90  70  40
BTR  68  79  65  83 /  70  90  70  30
ASD  68  79  68  82 /  70  90  70  40
MSY  70  79  69  82 /  70  90  60  40
GPT  68  76  70  79 /  60  80  70  50
PQL  68  79  70  81 /  60  80  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 172037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMAINED OFFSHORE TODAY...CUTTING OFF THE BEST
MOISTURE FEED TO THE AREA. THIS PROVIDED US A NICER DAY THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH I DO NOT THINK IS GOING TO GATHER TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS. RADAR ONLY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES GOT INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION FOR THE AREA BEFORE
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. CONVECTION FIRING OFF OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN MCS THIS EVENING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN
RISE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE A BIT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON THE FRONT END AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH A
GOOD BIT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE REMAINING LOUISIANA PARISHES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT.
NOT AS CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION BEYOND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK ON SUNDAY...BUT IF MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. MSY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z SUNDAY SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH WITH VERY LITTLE
TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPH. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN EXTENT.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. DRIER
AIR ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

FINALLY...A SOMEWHAT DRIER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK. GFS
SOLUTION RUNS SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. DEFINITELY WILL SEE SOME LOWER HUMIDITIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. AREAS IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REBOUND TO
THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF GOING
QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD HAVE
TE
00004000
MPERATURES NEAR BATON ROUGE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

TOOK MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TERMINALS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
SHRA WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A FORECAST AREA OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z WITH TSRA CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
FROM 12Z TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO BKN/OVC010 SATURDAY
MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VRB TONIGHT BECOMING
SRLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES APPROACHES. VSBY MAINLY P6SM HOWEVER
LOWER 3 TO 5SM DURING PERIODS OF TSTMS. /KEG/

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET CONTINUE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND INCREASING TO THE 3 TO 6 FOOT
RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT FOLLOWING THE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/KEG/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  77  65  82 /  70  90  70  40
BTR  68  79  65  83 /  70  90  70  30
ASD  68  79  68  82 /  70  90  70  40
MSY  70  79  69  82 /  70  90  60  40
GPT  68  76  70  79 /  60  80  70  50
PQL  68  79  70  81 /  60  80  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
334 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF INTO THE SW FLOW OVER TX
HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO PUSH NEWD THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER
WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL SFC FORCING OR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY ...SATURATED SOILS FROM
THURSDAY`S RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RUNOFF RATES...AND
THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE BY LATE SATURDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO FINALLY OPEN UP
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
HEATING HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...SPC HAS OUR REGION
UNDER SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP LEAVING US UNDER DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUR DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. FROM HERE ON
OUT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION YET AGAIN...LEADING
TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

FOR TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN AFTER FROPA FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER VERY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18/00Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
CHANCES FOR TSRA CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
AND LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  65  77  62 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  81  64  76  63 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  57 /  40  60  50  40
TXK  78  63  75  60 /  40  70  50  40
ELD  79  63  75  60 /  40  70  70  50
TYR  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  50  40
GGG  79  65  78  61 /  40  70  50  40
LFK  81  67  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 172034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
334 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER CO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF INTO THE SW FLOW OVER TX
HAS GENERATED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO PUSH NEWD THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER
WAVE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL SFC FORCING OR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY ...SATURATED SOILS FROM
THURSDAY`S RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RUNOFF RATES...AND
THEREFORE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM SW TO
NE BY LATE SATURDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO FINALLY OPEN UP
AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
HEATING HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...SPC HAS OUR REGION
UNDER SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP LEAVING US UNDER DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUR DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH PERTURBATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. FROM HERE ON
OUT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION YET AGAIN...LEADING
TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

FOR TEMPS...ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOL DOWN AFTER FROPA FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER VERY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18/00Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
CHANCES FOR TSRA CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
AND LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  65  77  62 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  81  64  76  63 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  57 /  40  60  50  40
TXK  78  63  75  60 /  40  70  50  40
ELD  79  63  75  60 /  40  70  70  50
TYR  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  50  40
GGG  79  65  78  61 /  40  70  50  40
LFK  81  67  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FOREC
00004000
ASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOU
00004000
NDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18/00Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
CHANCES FOR TSRA CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
AND LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  78  63  83 /  70  70  50  20
MLU  66  77  64  82 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  59  79 /  70  60  40  30
TXK  64  77  61  81 /  70  60  40  30
ELD  65  74  62  81 /  60  80  50  40
TYR  64  78  62  81 /  70  60  40  20
GGG  66  78  62  82 /  70  60  40  20
LFK  66  78  64  85 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18/00Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
CHANCES FOR TSRA CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
AND LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  78  63  83 /  70  70  50  20
MLU  66  77  64  82 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  59  79 /  70  60  40  30
TXK  64  77  61  81 /  70  60  40  30
ELD  65  74  62  81 /  60  80  50  40
TYR  64  78  62  81 /  70  60  40  20
GGG  66  78  62  82 /  70  60  40  20
LFK  66  78  64  85 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18/00Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
CHANCES FOR TSRA CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
AND LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  78  63  83 /  70  70  50  20
MLU  66  77  64  82 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  59  79 /  70  60  40  30
TXK  64  77  61  81 /  70  60  40  30
ELD  65  74  62  81 /  60  80  50  40
TYR  64  78  62  81 /  70  60  40  20
GGG  66  78  62  82 /  70  60  40  20
LFK  66  78  64  85 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18/00Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
CHANCES FOR TSRA CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS TO
DEGRADE TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/09Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
AND LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  78  63  83 /  70  70  50  20
MLU  66  77  64  82 /  60  80  50  40
DEQ  64  76  59  79 /  70  60  40  30
TXK  64  77  61  81 /  70  60  40  30
ELD  65  74  62  81 /  60  80  50  40
TYR  64  78  62  81 /  70  60  40  20
GGG  66  78  62  82 /  70  60  40  20
LFK  66  78  64  85 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171617
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION.
00000517
..
KSHV RADAR CONTINUES TO BE QUIET THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL DRY POCKET
MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION ATTM...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE FOR SOME AREAS. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE BACK OVER W CENTRAL TX...AS ANOTHER
VORT ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
TODAY...AND BRING INCREASING SHWRS/TSTMS BY TONIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CLOSED LOW FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER W CNTRL/S TX...WHICH WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO E TX DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE DELAYED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS UNTIL THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SW
00004000
 AR/N LA TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED AFTER
05-06Z. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
NNW LATE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS IN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE. ESE WINDS 5KTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO OUR
NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS SPC
HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  81  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  81  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171617
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR CONTINUES TO BE QUIET THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL DRY POCKET
MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION ATTM...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE FOR SOME AREAS. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE BACK OVER W CENTRAL TX...AS ANOTHER
VORT ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
TODAY...AND BRING INCREASING SHWRS/TSTMS BY TONIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CLOSED LOW FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER W CNTRL/S TX...WHICH WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO E TX DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE DELAYED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS UNTIL THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SW AR/N LA TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED AFTER
05-06Z. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
NNW LATE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS IN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE. ESE WINDS 5KTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO OUR
NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS SPC
HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  81  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  81  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171617
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR CONTINUES TO BE QUIET THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL DRY POCKET
MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION ATTM...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE FOR SOME AREAS. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION
INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE BACK OVER W CENTRAL TX...AS ANOTHER
VORT ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
TODAY...AND BRING INCREASING SHWRS/TSTMS BY TONIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CLOSED LOW FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER W CNTRL/S TX...WHICH WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO E TX DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE DELAYED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS UNTIL THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SW AR/N LA TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED AFTER
05-06Z. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
NNW LATE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS IN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE. ESE WINDS 5KTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO OUR
NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS SPC
HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  81  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  81  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN F
00004000
ORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171302
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED DESPITE DRIER AIR
BEING MIXED INTO THE MIDLEVELS THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS MEANS TWO THINGS FOR TODAY. 1) LESS EXPECTED COVERAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO
DAYS (COMPARED TO TUESDAY). 2) THE DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL
INCREASE THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. AS FOR HAIL POTENTIAL...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 12300 FEET WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. THESE PARAMETERS ARE BORDERLINE
HIGH FOR HAIL...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER. THERE IS MORE SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY WITH 0-3KM
SURFACE RELATIVE HELICITY AT 200M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR OF 53 KNOTS.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ROTATED AROUND TO
FROM THE WEST BY 9500 FEET. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 91 KNOTS AT 39000
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON
ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING NEAR
VANCLEAVE 67 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. FLIGHT TIME WAS 108
MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA. THIS REGION OF DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SLIPPING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WITH LESS OVERALL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FAR MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ONLY WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR
INLAND ZONES LATER TODAY.

EVEN WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE VERY LOW AT AROUND 11K FEET...AND LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK PRIME FOR SOME STRONGER STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
TO DEVELOP IN ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS NOTED BY A CLASSIC
HOURGLASS S
000003C6
OUNDING PROFILE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PULL TO THE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD ACTUALLY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN ZONES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTURE
LOADED...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ALREADY IN PLACE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
COMPLETELY POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL FORMATION..AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK TO AR
00004000
OUND 13K FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK WEAKER THAN THEY DID
PREVIOUSLY. THE GREATEST VALUES OCCUR IN THE EVENING WHEN 0-3 KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
APPROACHES 150 M2/S2.  THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT IS LOWER THAN IT APPEARED PREVIOUSLY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE GREATEST OMEGA AND OVERALL VORTICITY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL AROUND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...EXPECT TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A LOWER DEWPOINT
AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE GULF SOUTH. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL RIDE
ALONG THIS FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE
FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TURN TRANQUIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERALL...THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY PLEASANT.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING ALONG THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FAIRLY WEAK...BUT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN LOW END CHANCE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS RISK. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS THIS
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

AVIATION...

NEARLY ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY EITHER IFR OR LOW END MVFR BUT
CONVECTION FREE EXCEPT FOR KBTR WITH MODERATE SHRA UNDERWAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF SE TEXAS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME GRAVITY WAVE BEHAVIOR TO THE RADAR
RETURNS IN THAT THE CONVECTION IS CYCLING THROUGH LINEAR WAVES OF
ENHANCEMENT AND DECAY WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TIME ONSET AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION. UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE WILL PRIME THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS TO WARRANT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON
CONVECTION WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS AND IFR
TO LOW END MVFR WITHIN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SAT. 24/RR

MARINE...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF AROUND
20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET TO 3 TO 6 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
IN PLACE BY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS A COOLER
AND DRIER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY MIDWEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  66  75  64 /  60  70  90  70
BTR  81  68  77  65 /  60  70  90  70
ASD  79  68  77  68 /  80  70  90  70
MSY  80  70  77  69 /  80  70  90  60
GPT  77  68  75  70 /  80  60  80  70
PQL  78  68  77  69 /  80  60  80  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLIX 171302
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED DESPITE DRIER AIR
BEING MIXED INTO THE MIDLEVELS THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS MEANS TWO THINGS FOR TODAY. 1) LESS EXPECTED COVERAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO
DAYS (COMPARED TO TUESDAY). 2) THE DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL
INCREASE THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. AS FOR HAIL POTENTIAL...WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 12300 FEET WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. THESE PARAMETERS ARE BORDERLINE
HIGH FOR HAIL...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER. THERE IS MORE SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY WITH 0-3KM
SURFACE RELATIVE HELICITY AT 200M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR OF 53 KNOTS.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ROTATED AROUND TO
FROM THE WEST BY 9500 FEET. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 91 KNOTS AT 39000
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON
ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING NEAR
VANCLEAVE 67 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. FLIGHT TIME WAS 108
MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA. THIS REGION OF DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SLIPPING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WITH LESS OVERALL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FAR MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ONLY WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR
INLAND ZONES LATER TODAY.

EVEN WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE VERY LOW AT AROUND 11K FEET...AND LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK PRIME FOR SOME STRONGER STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
TO DEVELOP IN ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS NOTED BY A CLASSIC
HOURGLASS SOUNDING PROFILE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PULL TO THE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD ACTUALLY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN ZONES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTURE
LOADED...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ALREADY IN PLACE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
COMPLETELY POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL FORMATION..AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 13K FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK WEAKER THAN THEY DID
PREVIOUSLY. THE GREATEST VALUES OCCUR IN THE EVENING WHEN 0-3 KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
APPROACHES 150 M2/S2.  THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT IS LOWER THAN IT APPEARED PREVIOUSLY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE GREATEST OMEGA AND OVERALL VORTICITY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL AROUND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...EXPECT TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A LOWER DEWPOINT
AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE GULF SOUTH. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL RIDE
ALONG THIS FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE
FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TURN TRANQUIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERALL...THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY PLEASANT.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING ALONG THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FAIRLY WEAK...BUT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN LOW END CHANCE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS RISK. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS THIS
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

AVIATION...

NEARLY ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY EITHER IFR OR LOW END MVFR BUT
CONVECTION FREE EXCEPT FOR KBTR WITH MODERATE SHRA UNDERWAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF SE TEXAS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME GRAVITY WAVE BEHAVIOR TO THE RADAR
RETURNS IN THAT THE CONVECTION IS CYCLING THROUGH LINEAR WAVES OF
ENHANCEMENT AND DECAY WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TIME ONSET AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION. UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE WILL PRIME THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS TO WARRANT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON
CONVECTION WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS AND IFR
TO LOW END MVFR WITHIN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SAT. 24/RR

MARINE...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF AROUND
20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET TO 3 TO 6 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
IN PLACE BY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS A COOLER
AND DRIER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY MIDWEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  66  75  64 /  60  70  90  70
BTR  81  68  77  65 /  60  70  90  70
ASD  79  68  77  68 /  80  70  90  70
MSY  80  70  77  69 /  80  70  90  60
GPT  77  68  75  70 /  80  60  80  70
PQL  78  68  77  69 /  80  60  80  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171153 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CLOSED LOW FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WCNTRL/S TX...WHICH WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO E TX DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE DELAYED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS UNTIL THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SW AR/N LA TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED AFTER
05-06Z. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
NNW LATE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS IN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE. ESE WINDS 5KTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWRD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBL
00004000
Y SEVERE STORMS AS
SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  80  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  79  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171153 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER THOUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS DURING THE DAY DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CLOSED LOW FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WCNTRL/S TX...WHICH WILL SHIFT ENE
INTO E TX DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE DELAYED
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS UNTIL THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SW AR/N LA TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED AFTER
05-06Z. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ONGOING BY THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREADING
NNW LATE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS IN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ENE. ESE WINDS 5KTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWRD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS
SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  80  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  79  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL M
00004000
AINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWRD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS
SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  80  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  79  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KSHV 171002
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM WRN OK DOWN TO THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.
FARTHER SE IN OUR REGION...CONVECTION HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH SHV RADAR MOSTLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS EWRD FROM CNTRL TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET BUT EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...LEADING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR NW. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS
SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF NE TX...DEEP E TX AND OUR ADJACENT LA
PARISHES ACROSS TOLEDO BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN.

AS WE SHIFT AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
IN ALONG THE TONGUE OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LOW
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS BAJA. COUPLE THAT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A SFC LOW RIDING UP THE TX COAST INTO LA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS E TX AND N LA GENERALLY ALONG SOUTH OF
I-20...WITH 1-2 INCHES LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED 3+ INCH TOTALS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AND SRN LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL SPIKE AS AMPLE SFC HEATING WILL SEND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INTENSE LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP...PROMPTING SPC TO INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR ALL OF S AR AND MUCH OF N LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRANSITION FROM MEXICO ACROSS TX WITH THE INCREASING
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID-LATE WEEK AFTER THE BRIEF COOLDOWN.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  66  78  63 /  40  70  70  50
MLU  80  66  77  64 /  40  60  80  50
DEQ  78  64  76  59 /  40  70  60  40
TXK  78  64  77  61 /  40  70  60  40
ELD  79  65  74  62 /  40  60  80  50
TYR  78  64  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
GGG  79  66  78  62 /  40  70  60  40
LFK  79  66  78  64 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170920
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA. THIS REGION OF DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SLIPPING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WITH LESS OVERALL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FAR MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ONLY WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR
INLAND ZONES LATER TODAY.

EVEN WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE VERY LOW AT AROUND 11K FEET...AND LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK PRIME FOR SOME STRONGER STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
TO DEVELOP IN ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS NOTED BY A CLASSIC
HOURGLASS SOUNDING PROFILE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PULL TO THE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD ACTUALLY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN ZONES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWE
00004000
R AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTURE
LOADED...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ALREADY IN PLACE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
COMPLETELY POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL FORMATION..AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 13K FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK WEAKER THAN THEY DID
PREVIOUSLY. THE GREATEST VALUES OCCUR IN THE EVENING WHEN 0-3 KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
APPROACHES 150 M2/S2.  THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT IS LOWER THAN IT APPEARED PREVIOUSLY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE GREATEST OMEGA AND OVERALL VORTICITY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL AROUND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...EXPECT TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A LOWER DEWPOINT
AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE GULF SOUTH. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL RIDE
ALONG THIS FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE
FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TURN TRANQUIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERALL...THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY PLEASANT.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING ALONG THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FAIRLY WEAK...BUT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN LOW END CHANCE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS RISK. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS THIS
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...

NEARLY ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY EITHER IFR OR LOW END MVFR BUT
CONVECTION FREE EXCEPT FOR KBTR WITH MODERATE SHRA UNDERWAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF SE TEXAS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME GRAVITY WAVE BEHAVIOR TO THE RADAR
RETURNS IN THAT THE CONVECTION IS CYCLING THROUGH LINEAR WAVES OF
ENHANCEMENT AND DECAY WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TIME ONSET AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION. UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE WILL PRIME THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS TO WARRANT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON
CONVECTION WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS AND IFR
TO LOW END MVFR WITHIN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SAT. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF AROUND
20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET TO 3 TO 6 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
IN PLACE BY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS A COOLER
AND DRIER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  66  75  64 /  60  70  90  70
BTR  81  68  77  65 /  60  70  90  70
ASD  79  68  77  68 /  80  70  90  70
MSY  80  70  77  69 /  80  70  90  60
GPT  77  68  75  70 /  80  60  80  70
PQL  78  68  77  69 /  80  60  80  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLIX 170920
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA. THIS REGION OF DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SLIPPING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WITH LESS OVERALL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FAR MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ONLY WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR
INLAND ZONES LATER TODAY.

EVEN WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...THE
SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE VERY LOW AT AROUND 11K FEET...AND LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK PRIME FOR SOME STRONGER STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
TO DEVELOP IN ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS NOTED BY A CLASSIC
HOURGLASS SOUNDING PROFILE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PULL TO THE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD ACTUALLY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN ZONES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTURE
LOADED...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ALREADY IN PLACE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
COMPLETELY POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORTUNATELY...LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL FORMATION..AND WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 13K FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK WEAKER THAN THEY DID
PREVIOUSLY. THE GREATEST VALUES OCCUR IN THE EVENING WHEN 0-3 KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
APPROACHES 150 M2/S2.  THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT IS LOWER THAN IT APPEARED PREVIOUSLY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS THE GREATEST OMEGA AND OVERALL VORTICITY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL AROUND SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...EXPECT TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...DRIVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A LOWER DEWPOINT
AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE GULF SOUTH. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL RIDE
ALONG THIS FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE
FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW OFFSHORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TURN TRANQUIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERALL...THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY PLEASANT.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING ALONG THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FAIRLY WEAK...BUT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN LOW END CHANCE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS RISK. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS THIS
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...

NEARLY ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY EITHER IFR OR LOW END MVFR BUT
CONVECTION FREE EXCEPT FOR KBTR WITH MODERATE SHRA UNDERWAY. THIS
APPEARS TO BE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF SE TEXAS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME GRAVITY WAVE BEHAVIOR TO THE RADAR
RETURNS IN THAT THE CONVECTION IS CYCLING THROUGH LINEAR WAVES OF
ENHANCEMENT AND DECAY WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TIME ONSET AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF LOCATION. UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE WILL PRIME THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS TO WARRANT PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON
CONVECTION WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS AND IFR
TO LOW END MVFR WITHIN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SAT. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

THROUGH TOMORROW...A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OF AROUND
20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET TO 3 TO 6 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
IN PLACE BY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS A COOLER
AND DRIER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  66  75  64 /  60  70  90  70
BTR  81  68  77  65 /  60  70  90  70
ASD  79  68  77  68 /  80  70  90  70
MSY  80  70  77  69 /  80  70  90  60
GPT  77  68  75  70 /  80  60  80  70
PQL  78  68  77  69 /  80  60  80  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONF
00004000
IRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170431
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN IS
HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS WITNESSED ON KSHV VWP WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BEING REPORTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.

CIRRUS DEBRIS IS EXTENSIVE BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY THIN
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS BEEN DISRUPTED FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS BUT ASSUMING WE GET A S/SE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

HELD OFF VCTS MENTION ON FRIDAY UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
AND REACTS TO SOME INSTABILITY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT BY INSERTING WORDING OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS. ALSO BUMPED
UP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS OR
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE FOUR STATE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. /06/

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  79  66  78 /  60  50  60  70
MLU  66  78  66  75 /  40  50  60  70
DEQ  64  77  64  75 /  40  50  60  60
TXK  64  77  64  76 /  60  50  60  60
ELD  65  78  65  74 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  66  77  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
GGG  66  78  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  67  79  66  79 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170431
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN IS
HELPING TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS WITNESSED ON KSHV VWP WITH
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BEING REPORTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS.

CIRRUS DEBRIS IS EXTENSIVE BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY THIN
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS BEEN DISRUPTED FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS BUT ASSUMING WE GET A S/SE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

HELD OFF VCTS MENTION ON FRIDAY UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
AND REACTS TO SOME INSTABILITY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT BY INSERTING WORDING OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS. ALSO BUMPED
UP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS OR
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE FOUR STATE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. /06/

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  79  66  78 /  60  50  60  70
MLU  66  78  66  75 /  40  50  60  70
DEQ  64  77  64  75 /  40  50  60  60
TXK  64  77  64  76 /  60  50  60  60
ELD  65  78  65  74 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  66  77  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
GGG  66  78  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  67  79  66  79 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/13

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
STALLED COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD TO TAP INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
NEAR TERM...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THEN BASICALLY TRAINING
BETWEEN 190 AND I-10 IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA THROUGH AT-LEAST 1 AM.
ALSO...STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN UP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH 65 WILL CONTINUE FOR
HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 3
AM...IF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON THE MONEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DAYBREAK...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  70  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  66  80  67  80 / 100  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
STALLED COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD TO TAP INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
NEAR TERM...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THEN BASICALLY TRAINING
BETWEEN 190 AND I-10 IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA THROUGH AT-LEAST 1 AM.
ALSO...STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN UP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH 65 WILL CONTINUE FOR
HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINU
00004000
E TO BE
WIDESPREAD BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 3
AM...IF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON THE MONEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DAYBREAK...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  70  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  66  80  67  80 / 100  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KSHV 170309
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1009 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT BY INSERTING WORDING OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS. ALSO BUMPED
UP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS OR
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE FOUR STATE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS./06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THIS AFTN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE ITS WAY NWD...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE MOST OF REGION BY LATER IN EVE. AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATER EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
AS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE
ACROSS CO...AND INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM. MODELS COMING TO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THRU THE
WEEKEND....WITH POPS BEGINNING TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL MARK THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK...
WILL BECOME MORE EPISODIC IN NATURE IN MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  79  66  78 /  60  50  60  70
MLU  66  78  66  75 /  40  50  60  70
DEQ  64  77  64  75 /  40  50  60  60
TXK  64  77  64  76 /  60  50  60  60
ELD  65  78  65  74 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  66  77  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
GGG  66  78  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  67  79  66  79 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 170153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER 
00004000
ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162305
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162305
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLCH 162053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25

000
FXUS64 KLIX 162047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOUISIANA COAST APPARENTLY CUT OFF OUR BEST INFLOW AND HAS
KEPT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DRIER THAN ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CLOUDY.
SCA
000025BB
TTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND CONSIDERABLY MORE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN ITS CURRENT CONFIGURATION.
MESOSCALE MODELING INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH TONIGHT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...IT CERTAINLY IS NOT ZERO. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH...IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES...OVER THE AREA. NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...AND EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS. NOTE
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB
TOMORROW WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SOMEWHAT.
OTHER IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A REPEAT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SUNDAY IMPULSE MAY NOT HAVE
AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SATURDAY
ONE. NO REAL DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PINPOINT THE BEST THREAT AREA EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS UNLESS A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW READINGS TO
CREEP INTO THE LOWER 80S. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL TO SWEEP DEEP
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH THE LOWER
POPS THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MOST IMPULSES
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

TAFS WILL BE DEPENDENT ONCE AGAIN ON THE PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LARGE
SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL LA. MOST TERMINALS NORTH OF HUM AND MSY WILL SEE
LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR
CIGS. AFTER THAT...LOWER CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE FOG. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT TO SEE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO RIGHT AT EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY SURPASS THAT THRESHOLD TILL THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FADING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS
WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE FLOW OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  79  66  78 /  60  60  60  80
BTR  67  82  68  79 /  70  70  70  80
ASD  68  81  68  79 /  70  70  70  80
MSY  69  82  70  79 /  70  70  70  80
GPT  69  78  70  77 /  70  70  70  80
PQL  68  81  70  78 /  70  70  70  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THIS AFTN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE ITS WAY NWD...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE MOST OF REGION BY LATER IN EVE. AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATER EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
AS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE
ACROSS CO...AND INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM. MODELS COMING TO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THRU THE
WEEKEND....WITH POPS BEGINNING TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL MARK THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK...
WILL BECOME MORE EPISODIC IN NATURE IN MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  79  66  78 /  40  50  60  70
MLU  66  78  66  75 /  40  50  60  70
DEQ  64  77  64  75 /  20  50  60  60
TXK  64  77  64  76 /  40  50  60  60
ELD  65  78  65  74 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  66  77  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
GGG  66  78  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  67  79  66  79 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THIS AFTN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE ITS WAY NWD...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE MOST OF REGION BY LATER IN EVE. AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATER EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
AS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE
ACROSS CO...AND INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM. MODELS COMING TO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THRU THE
WEEKEND....WITH POPS BEGINNING TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL MARK THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK...
WILL BECOME MORE EPISODIC IN NATURE IN MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  79  66  78 /  40  50  60  70
MLU  66  78  66  75 /  40  50  60  70
DEQ  64  77  64  75 /  20  50  60  60
TXK  64  77  64  76 /  40  50  60  60
ELD  65  78  65  74 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  66  77  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
GGG  66  78  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  67  79  66  79 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161825
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
125 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
LOCAL 88DS SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SWRN ZONES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...IN AREA OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GIVEN FORECAST
QPFS AND CURRENT FFGS FOR THE SWRN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WWD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE SRN ZONES PLUS HARDIN AND SRN JASPER/NEWTON. ALSO
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SWRN ZONES TO MATCH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TWO FEATURES PRETTY MUCH TELL THE STORY THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE
12Z KLCH SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A VERY MOIST (MEAN RH 80
PERCENT/PWAT 1.75 - 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND UNSTABLE (MODIFIED
LI -6 TO -8/MU CAPE 2300/LAPSE RATE 7+ C/KM) AIRMASS IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SRN STREAM FLOW IMPACTING/
00004000
UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. MAY AS WELL
THROW IN A COASTAL TROF ANALYZED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOCAL 88DS
ALREADY SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONGOING AND LONG STORY SHORT
LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL LAST THE REST OF THE DAY...THUS MOVED
UP THE AFTERNOON HIGH POPS TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AT
MOST.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER
THE GULF WATERS WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE INLAND AREA THIS
MORNING. MAINTAINING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DAY
FOR THE TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA...AND TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT LCH...LFT AND AEX. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS AND RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BEGINNING TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING.  WITH INCREASING
PWAT AND THTE PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...
ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.  LATEST QPF TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER LOWER
ACADIANA.  WILL ISSUE FFA THRU 03Z FRIDAY OVER THAT REGION.  SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WILL TAPER POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AND WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECASTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD NOT BE THAT
STRONG...CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WITH SOME GRADIENT
TIGHTENING FORECASTED OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  66  78  66 /  70  50  60  70
LCH  78  67  80  67 /  80  60  60  70
LFT  77  67  80  69 /  80  60  60  70
BPT  79  68  80  66 /  80  50  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161825
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
125 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
LOCAL 88DS SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE SWRN ZONES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...IN AREA OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GIVEN FORECAST
QPFS AND CURRENT FFGS FOR THE SWRN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WWD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE SRN ZONES PLUS HARDIN AND SRN JASPER/NEWTON. ALSO
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SWRN ZONES TO MATCH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TWO FEATURES PRETTY MUCH TELL THE STORY THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE
12Z KLCH SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A VERY MOIST (MEAN RH 80
PERCENT/PWAT 1.75 - 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND UNSTABLE (MODIFIED
LI -6 TO -8/MU CAPE 2300/LAPSE RATE 7+ C/KM) AIRMASS IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SRN STREAM FLOW IMPACTING/UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. MAY AS WELL
THROW IN A COASTAL TROF ANALYZED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOCAL 88DS
ALREADY SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONGOING AND LONG STORY SHORT
LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL LAST THE REST OF THE DAY...THUS MOVED
UP THE AFTERNOON HIGH POPS TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AT
MOST.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER
THE GULF WATERS WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE INLAND AREA THIS
MORNING. MAINTAINING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DAY
FOR THE TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA...AND TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT LCH...LFT AND AEX. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS AND RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BEGINNING TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING.  WITH INCREASING
PWAT AND THTE PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...
ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.  LATEST QPF TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER LOWER
ACADIANA.  WILL ISSUE FFA THRU 03Z FRIDAY OVER THAT REGION.  SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WILL TAPER POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AND WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECASTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD NOT BE THAT
STRONG...CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WITH SOME GRADIENT
TIGHTENING FORECASTED OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  66  78  66 /  70  50  60  70
LCH  78  67  80  67 /  80  60  60  70
LFT  77  67  80  69 /  80  60  60  70
BPT  79  68  80  66 /  80  50  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161814
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  
00004000
30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FEATURES PRETTY MUCH TELL THE STORY THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE
12Z KLCH SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A VERY MOIST (MEAN RH 80
PERCENT/PWAT 1.75 - 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND UNSTABLE (MODIFIED
LI -6 TO -8/MU CAPE 2300/LAPSE RATE 7+ C/KM) AIRMASS IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SRN STREAM FLOW IMPACTING/UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. MAY AS WELL
THROW IN A COASTAL TROF ANALYZED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOCAL 88DS
ALREADY SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONGOING AND LONG STORY SHORT
LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL LAST THE REST OF THE DAY...THUS MOVED
UP THE AFTERNOON HIGH POPS TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AT
MOST.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER
THE GULF WATERS WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE INLAND AREA THIS
MORNING. MAINTAINING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DAY
FOR THE TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA...AND TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT LCH...LFT AND AEX. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS AND RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BEGINNING TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING.  WITH INCREASING
PWAT AND THTE PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...
ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.  LATEST QPF TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER LOWER
ACADIANA.  WILL ISSUE FFA THRU 03Z FRIDAY OVER THAT REGION.  SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WILL TAPER POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AND WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECASTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD NOT BE THAT
STRONG...CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WITH SOME GRADIENT
TIGHTENING FORECASTED OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  66  78  66 /  70  50  60  70
LCH  78  67  80  67 /  70  60  60  70
LFT  77  67  80  69 /  80  60  60  70
BPT  79  68  80  66 /  70  50  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ043>045-
     052>055.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLCH 161551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TWO FEATURES PRETTY MUCH TELL THE STORY THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE
12Z KLCH SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A VERY MOIST (MEAN RH 80
PERCENT/PWAT 1.75 - 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND UNSTABLE (MODIFIED
LI -6 TO -8/MU CAPE 2300/LAPSE RATE 7+ C/KM) AIRMASS IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SRN STREAM FLOW IMPACTING/UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. MAY AS WELL
THROW IN A COASTAL TROF ANALYZED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOCAL 88DS
ALREADY SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTION ONGOING AND LONG STORY SHORT
LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL LAST THE REST OF THE DAY...THUS MOVED
UP THE AFTERNOON HIGH POPS TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES AT
MOST.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER
THE GULF WATERS WILL BE ADVANCING INTO THE INLAND AREA THIS
MORNING. MAINTAINING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DAY
FOR THE TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA...AND TEMPOS FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT LCH...LFT AND AEX. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS AND RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BEGINNING TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING.  WITH INCREASING
PWAT AND THTE PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...
ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.  LATEST QPF TRENDS SHOW HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER LOWER
ACADIANA.  WILL ISSUE FFA THRU 03Z FRIDAY OVER THAT REGION.  SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WILL TAPER POPS ON SUNDAY
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AND WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECASTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD NOT BE THAT
STRONG...CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS MAY OCCUR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WITH SOME GRADIENT
TIGHTENING FORECASTED OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  66  78  66 /  70  50  60  70
LCH  78  67  80  67 /  70  60  60  70
LFT  77  67  80  69 /  80  60  60  70
BPT  79  68  80  66 /  70  50  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ043>045-
     052>055.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04

000
FXUS64 KLIX 161332
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
832 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MOISTURE-LADEN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THAT LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REPEATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500 J/KG AND
LI WILL DROP TO -4 LATER TODAY. FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND
12700 FEET...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHT IS ABOUT 1000 FEET HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME DRY AIR SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING AROUND 17000 FEET THAT WOULD
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL. MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL
BE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEAR...BUT STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW SO TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO QUITE LOW. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE AND THEN ROTATED AROUND TO THE WEST BY THE MIDLEVELS. A
29 KNOT WIND WAS OBSERVED AT 500MB AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 93
KNOTS WAS FOUND AT 38400 FEET/217MB.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT
LASTED 105 MINUTES. THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND AND WENT 53 MILES DOWNRANGE BURSTING EAST OF
MCHENRY.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED OMEGA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS DRIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH PULSES UP INCREASED VORTICITY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HOWEVER... THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS OVERALL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK MORE FAVORABLE ON
THESE DAYS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EVERY
DAY AS PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOISTURE LOADED. GIVEN THIS THREAT...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY LATER TODAY.

FOR TODAY...AFTER REVIEWING THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS AND LOOKING AT
THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION INITIALLY IMPACT
AREAS AROUND BATON ROUGE THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NEW ORLEANS AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE CLOSER TO MOIST ADIABATIC A
00000A15
ND THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT
REMAINS AROUND 13K FEET. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR
NOTED OVER THE AREA. SPC HAS ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY GIVEN THESE WEAKER PARAMETERS.
THE SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING
TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...SO IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THUS...SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THREAT TODAY.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH AS SEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING
GIVES WAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND B
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE NIGHT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK DUE TO THE
WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION CUTTING OFF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. FOG COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. GFSBUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING ON. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOOTING UP TO 7 C/KM BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THESE
HIGH LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL WHICH WILL
FALL BELOW 13K FEET. ADDITIONALLY...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 11K FEET. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE WIND PROFILE...OVERALL HELICITY VALUES WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE MID-LEVELS...THE THREAT OF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS INCREASES. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY...THAT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A BIT.

HOWEVER...THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF BOTH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES WILL BE VERY
HIGH...APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND THE
00004000
 OVERALL LAPSE RATES WILL
TURN MORE MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL DECREASE THE
HAIL THREAT SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAINING
WELL ABOVE 13K FEET. HOWEVER...VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES
WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN HOURLY RAINFALL RATE POTENTIAL OF 2 TO
3 INCHES IF A STORM STALLS OVER THE SAME AREA. FORTUNATELY...THE
STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...SO ACTUAL RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
LOWER. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL UNFORTUNATELY MEAN THAT THE RISK OF
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE HIGH ON SATURDAY. 0-3KM
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 250 M2/S2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
VALUES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE TO REFLECT THIS.

LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE TAKING HOLD OF THE AREA FOR
MONDAY. AT MOST...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME TAKES HOLD ALOFT...AND SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR LINGERS
OVER THE AREA SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY...A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SPARK
OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE WHERE OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP. HOWEVER...ANOTHER IMPULSE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY.

AVIATION...

TAFS WILL BE DEPENDENT ONCE AGAIN ON EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS TODAY.
CONVECTIVE BASED MODELS SUGGEST ONSET OF STORMS COULD IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS
BY 14Z...PRIMARILY WESTERNMOST LOCATIONS LIKE KBTR AND KHUM...THOUGH ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF TSRA/SHRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DOWN BURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH TODAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL 35-45 KT. EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS SHOULD ALSO LOWER VSBY TO VLIFR LEVELS AT TIMES DURING HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 16Z OUTSIDE
CONVECTION.

MARINE...

AN INTERESTING WAKE LOW PHENOMENA IMPACTED THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS SINCE WEAKENED. OVERALL...EXPECT TO
SEE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE SATURDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE FLOW OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  65  79  66 /  80  60  70  50
BTR  79  66  81  67 /  80  60  70  50
ASD  78  67  80  68 /  70  70  70  60
MSY  78  69  80  69 /  70  70  70  60
GPT  77  68  78  69 /  70  70  70  70
PQL  78  67  79  69 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  50  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  50  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  50  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  50  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  50  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  50  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  50  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  50  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  50  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  50  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  50  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  50  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  50  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  50  40  50
000020C7
  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  50  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  50  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  50  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  50  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  50  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  50  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  50  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  50  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  50  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  50  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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