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FXUS64 KBRO 201143
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE TROPICAL
STORM BARRY CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE BORDER AT
THIS TIME. THIS OUTFLOW WILL REACH THE VALLEY IN THIS MORNING
IMPACTING THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT A FEW
GUSTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. THIS
SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER BAND
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SE WINDS TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AND DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
LOWERING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 500MB RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONUS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWN ON THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AS THE OUTER BAND OF THE TROPICAL STORM BARRY ENTERS THE
COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN MEXICO TODAY. THE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INCREASE UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE 850
TO 700MB LAYER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING
SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUE INCREASE TO 1.60 INCH WITH A 10 KNOT SE
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AN INCREASE TO PWATS TO 1.90 INCH IS
EXPECTED BY THE 12Z BUFF SOUNDING. THIS IS FROM AN OUTER BAND THAT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA...PORT ISABEL AND SPI. THE CHANCE IS VERY
LOW BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE AND CAN`T BE RULE OUT AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZE
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA VERY SIMILAR COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DIMINISH IN THE LATE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY AND FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
90S EAST OF HWY 281 AND 77 AND TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE
WHOLE CWA WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105F.
TONIGHT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY ATMOS OVER THE
AREA. THE PWATS VALUES BEGIN TO DROP BETWEEN 1.8 TO 1.5 IN FROM THE
LOWER VALLEY AND TO THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVER
NIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE CWA WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE 80S.
ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE LOW 60S DEG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
OVER ZAPATA COUNTY AND THE STARR COUNTY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDING INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTER
BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.SEAS WILL BUILD
UP 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM BARRY TODAY.
SCEC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 15
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
000
FXUS64 KLUB 201128
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TSTMS EXPECTED TO FIRE NEAR TX/NM STATE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAKE IT INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL. KCDS MAY BE
AFFECTED LATER BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN TAF
ATTM. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY-CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THEN FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE BERING SEA INTO SIBERIA. HOWEVER...THIS
RIDGE WILL BE IMPINGED UPON BY EXTREMITIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NW OF UL HIGH. ONCE AGAIN...WE
SEE JUST A BIT OF WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH ON THE NW FLANK. WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET APPEARS TO RUN FROM BAJA TO NEAR OUR REGION. H2
ANALYSIS SUGGEST WE COULD BE IN FAVORED LEFT FRONT REGION THOUGH JET
APPEARS TILTED DOWNWARD TO THE NORTH SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE BELOW.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE THAT STANDS OUT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OTHER THAN PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTING SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING DOWN LOWER...BEST THETA-E AXIS LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM NEAR
GUADALUPE PEAK UP THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE JUST EAST OF ZONE OF ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY FROM
KDHT TO KROW. THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN VARIOUS NWP
SOLUTIONS. SO...WHAT IS THE FORECAST? HERE IS WHAT IS EXPECTED
BASED ON THE INFO AVAILABLE AT PRESENT. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THEN MOVE EAST. BULK SHEAR...WHILE
INITIALLY WEAK DURING THE DAY...WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /30-40KT/ PARTICULARLY N AND W OF KLBB DURING
THE EVENING HOURS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS LIKELY UP AROUND
3-4KJ/KG. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY WEST
OF A CHILDRESS TO POST LINE WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE THREAT WEST
OF A SILVERTON TO BROWNFIELD LINE. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS
LOW...IT IS NON-ZERO BUT DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. FOR
HAIL...WILL INITIALLY CALL FOR UP TO BASEBALL SIZE ALONG WITH
TYPICAL SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY BE WRAPPING UP BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BROAD UA LOW MOVING ENE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND AID IN
ESTABLISHING SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL
BE THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...THEREBY PROMOTING WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
THROUGH LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK /90S/. DUE TO THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NW LOW...THE CENTER OF
THE UA RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO TO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. SFC
TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM WILL BE
ONE OF THE FACTORS FOR POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND THE FETCH OF BAJA
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN/EVENING TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INITIATING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN TRANSLATING NE ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN
ZONES...THANKS TO ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC TROUGH...IT IS
HARD TO ARGUE WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUAL DEPICTION OF THIS PRECIP
SIGNAL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL INHERIT PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS WRN ZONES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL
ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON SATURDAY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING A BIT.
NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN NW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY MID
TO LATE WEEK. ONCE THE UA RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...INCREASING CIN WILL
MAKE IT HARD-PRESSED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ONCE THE CENTER
PROPAGATES NW AWAY FROM THE REGION...MODELS SUGGEST AN EMBEDDED
IMPULSE/WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY COULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR/ACROSS THE FA /AS HINTED AT VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF/. WILL
NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS
FOR THE LATTER-HALF OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 64 94 64 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
TULIA 94 66 94 65 93 / 20 30 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 93 66 94 66 93 / 20 20 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 93 67 96 67 95 / 20 30 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 94 68 95 67 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 90 67 98 67 96 / 20 30 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 91 68 96 67 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 98 70 98 70 97 / 10 10 0 10 0
SPUR 97 68 96 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 96 70 98 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201125
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED LEAVING BEHIND OVERCAST CONDITIONS.
WINDS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY DECREASED BUT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WILL START THE DAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW WOBBLES EAST THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BUT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH CENTER OF THE RIDGE RETURNING WEST TO NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRESIDIO...
TO ORLA... TO ARTESIA. A NOCTURNAL JET GUSTING OVER 30KTS WAS
PUMPING FRESH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA KEEPING DEWPTS HIGH. EXPECT
STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL QPF STARTS
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE MORNING BETWEEN THE GUADALUPES
AND DAVIS MTNS WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE SAME PLACE SOME SHOWERS
KICKED OFF YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS EARLY FOR THE
WEST. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TODAY TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SE NM. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IT WILL LOOK SIMILAR ON FRIDAY WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SE NM WILL GET HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SATURDAY
QPF EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND AND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE EXTENDED POPS. HAD A LITTLE SEVERE
WX YESTERDAY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S. PW OF 1.0
TO 1.2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED SO SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE HAS STILL BEEN JUST A LITTLE
TOO COOL SO WILL STAY A LITTLE ABOVE TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201122 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY BRIEF IFR CIGS AT KAMA AND KGUY
THROUGH 14Z, BUT THINK THESE WILL STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VCTS AT KAMA 01Z-03Z, BUT THERE COULD BE
STORMS AS EARLY AS 23Z. IF A TSRA DIRECT IMPACTS THE TERMINAL, BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS, WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
S/SSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY 14Z-03Z AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE TO BE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY-TONIGHT: IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE SUNDAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S/NEAR
100 F THIS AFTERNOON, RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN UP SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. THUS, HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 90S INSTEAD. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HELPING
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE TWO
FEATURES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF A DALHART TO STRATFORD TO BORGER LINE. THESE STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE FAR NORTHWEST, FAR NORTHEAST, OR FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A DALHART TO SPEARMAN TO CLARENDON
LINE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3,000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT. AS A
RESULT, THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY IN NATURE, BUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY,
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT, HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 1 AM.
JACKSON
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE.
ON FRIDAY...THIS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NM FRI AND SAT WHICH CAN SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE CAPPING WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN NM AND MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THIS
PERSISTENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI
AND INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD SUN
BEFORE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN NON MENTIONABLE POPS SUN ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALSO SQUASH PRECIP PROSPECTS ACROSS THE AREA. A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AS IT RETROGRADES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS STILL
KEEPS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY WX. GIVEN
THIS IS QUITE A WAYS OUT IN TIME AND EVEN BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15-20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
CAUSING 20 FOOT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH...RECENT RAINS
AND FUELS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY ERC VALUES
BELOW 50 PERCENT/ SHOULD LIMIT ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH BREEZY SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE LEE SIDE LOW FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RECENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULD MITIGATE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JJ/CLK
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201116 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS UNDER SCT/BKN200 SKIES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TEXAS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTH TEXAS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND MAY SLOW WARMING JUST A
BIT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE ABUNDANT SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME
EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF
ANY STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 93 73 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 90 72 91 72 94 / 10 5 5 5 0
DENTON, TX 92 73 91 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 72 92 71 95 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 94 76 95 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 73 93 73 94 / 5 0 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 95 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 71 92 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 201114
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING...ABATING THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 95 73 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 96 72 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201058
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CREATE A MODERATE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. THROUGH 15Z
TODAY...CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED VCNTY OF KAUS
TO KSAT AND KSSF...WHILE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS NEAR AND ABOVE 25 THSD
FT ARE EXPECTED VCNTY OF KDRT. AFTER 15Z TODAY...3 THSD TO 5 THSD
SCT WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS AT 5 THSD TO 7 THSD FT AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT.
S AND SE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS AROUND
1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AFTER 07Z AND
AROUND 2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 11Z FRIDAY. SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL
PICKUP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY...AS VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PUSHED UP INTO TEXAS AS A TROUGH
MOVED TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM AREA
RADARS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 7KFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO STRATOCU DECK FORMING THIS MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND A WARM DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL
MEAN A REPEAT FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE IN THE LONGER
TERM. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL NOT COME UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION FROM THE GULF MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED THEM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 76 98 76 98 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 74 97 74 98 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 74 96 / 0 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 94 74 94 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 77 98 78 98 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 74 96 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 96 75 96 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 95 74 96 / 0 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 77 98 77 98 / 10 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 77 95 76 95 / 0 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 76 95 75 94 / 0 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201001
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
401 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES
FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY. HAZY CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE AND FINE DUST WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA...DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN A MOIST REGIME OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHILE 40S AND 50S ARE PRESENT TO
THE EAST. MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE REGION BY A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PREVENTING
MOISTURE FROM GETTING INTO THE BOOT HEEL AND GILA REGION OF NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING VERY DRY CONDITIONS THERE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIC FOR
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM LAS CRUCES AND EASTWARD WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST WEST OF A DEMING TO TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES LINE.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SPOTTY WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS EACH DAY.
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE HAZY AS A RESULT OF SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES AND FINE PARTICULATES STIRRED UP BY
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER 100`S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 80`S AND LOWER 90`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND
STRENGTHENING OVER THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHUT OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT HAS BEEN HAMPERING FIRE
FIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE GILA REGION...BUT IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
MOISTURE EITHER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
FUELED BY RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH...WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
BE MORE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. HAZY CONDITIONS
FROM SMOKE AND FINE PARTICULATES WILL LOWER VSBY TO 4SM FOR
PERIODS OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 10-15 KTS AFT 17Z WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. WINDS IN THE GILA REGION WILL BE
STRONGER AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES AND POOR RH
RECOVERY INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SUOTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE GILA WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GILA REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING
MORE MOISTURE TO EASTERN PORTIONS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS FROM THE BOOTHEEL TO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. LITTLE MOISTURE INFLUX IS
EXPECTED FOR THE GILA REGION. MINIMUM RH TOMORROW RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR 20% EAST.
HAINES INDICES GENERALLY 4 OR 5 THURSDAY...EXCEPT 6 OVER THE GILA
REGION. HAINES INDICES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 102 77 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 97 72 99 73 99 / 20 30 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 101 72 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 102 69 98 70 102 / 10 20 20 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 79 51 78 52 79 / 30 20 20 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 102 74 101 75 102 / 0 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 94 61 95 61 96 / 0 10 10 10 10
DEMING 103 68 102 69 103 / 0 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 100 68 101 69 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 101 80 100 80 100 / 10 10 10 10 20
DELL CITY 97 66 98 67 99 / 20 30 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 105 76 103 77 104 / 20 30 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 92 63 91 63 93 / 20 20 20 20 20
FABENS 102 73 100 74 102 / 20 20 20 20 20
SANTA TERESA 101 76 100 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 99 73 98 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 102 66 100 67 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
HATCH 98 70 97 71 98 / 0 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 102 71 100 72 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 101 71 99 72 102 / 10 20 10 10 20
MAYHILL 88 59 86 60 86 / 30 20 20 20 20
MESCALERO 90 55 88 56 87 / 30 20 20 20 20
TIMBERON 85 55 83 56 84 / 20 30 20 20 20
WINSTON 89 56 91 57 90 / 0 10 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 95 65 95 65 94 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 98 68 96 69 99 / 0 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 92 58 91 59 90 / 0 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 96 63 96 63 96 / 0 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 101 52 99 56 99 / 0 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 97 48 97 48 95 / 0 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 94 63 95 63 96 / 0 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 99 68 100 69 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 100 68 99 69 101 / 0 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 100 70 100 71 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 94 66 97 66 94 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ110.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04 LUNDEEN
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200950
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
450 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY-TONIGHT: IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE SUNDAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S/NEAR
100 F THIS AFTERNOON, RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN UP SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. THUS, HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 90S INSTEAD. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HELPING
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE TWO
FEATURES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF A DALHART TO STRATFORD TO BORGER LINE. THESE STORMS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE FAR NORTHWEST, FAR NORTHEAST, OR FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A DALHART TO SPEARMAN TO CLARENDON
LINE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3,000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT. AS A
RESULT, THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY IN NATURE, BUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY,
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT, HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 1 AM.
JACKSON
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE.
ON FRIDAY...THIS RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ESTABLISH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NM FRI AND SAT WHICH CAN SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE CAPPING WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER
NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN NM AND MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THIS
PERSISTENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI
AND INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD SUN
BEFORE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN NON MENTIONABLE POPS SUN ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALSO SQUASH PRECIP PROSPECTS ACROSS THE AREA. A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AS IT RETROGRADES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS STILL
KEEPS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY WX. GIVEN
THIS IS QUITE A WAYS OUT IN TIME AND EVEN BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15-20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH
CAUSING 20 FOOT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH...RECENT RAINS
AND FUELS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY ERC VALUES
BELOW 50 PERCENT/ SHOULD LIMIT ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH BREEZY SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE LEE SIDE LOW FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RECENT HEAVY RAINS SHOULD MITIGATE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 92 68 91 67 92 / 20 30 10 20 5
BEAVER OK 97 70 98 67 98 / 10 20 10 20 10
BOISE CITY OK 96 66 94 64 97 / 20 10 20 20 5
BORGER TX 93 70 94 70 95 / 20 30 10 20 5
BOYS RANCH TX 94 68 95 68 98 / 20 30 10 20 5
CANYON TX 92 67 91 66 92 / 20 30 10 20 5
CLARENDON TX 92 69 91 67 92 / 10 20 5 10 5
DALHART TX 95 64 93 62 97 / 20 20 20 20 5
GUYMON OK 98 68 97 67 99 / 20 20 10 20 10
HEREFORD TX 92 65 91 64 91 / 20 30 10 20 5
LIPSCOMB TX 95 72 94 70 94 / 10 20 10 10 5
PAMPA TX 92 68 92 67 93 / 20 20 10 10 5
SHAMROCK TX 95 73 93 69 92 / 10 10 10 10 5
WELLINGTON TX 95 73 96 70 95 / 10 10 5 10 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
CLK/JDJ
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200928
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION DRG THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES (GREATER PWAT ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BARRY PROGD TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) DRG THE PERIOD AND THE NAM PROGS
LOW CIN/HIGH CAPE THIS AFTN. WL INTRODUCE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND THIS AFTN
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST 105F MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
OVER MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTN. WL NOT INTRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER AFTN CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
&&
.MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM FROM
ALOFT WL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AREAWIDE
THIS AFTN/FRIDAY AFTN AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
TODAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REMOVED POPS FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP IF ENOUGH LIFT OCCURS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVERGENCE OCCURS ON MONDAY...SO LEFT IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS
REMOVED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...
PROGRESSING INLAND MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AM NOT EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT TO REACH FAR INLAND AS A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. INCREASED TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
H1000-H500 HEIGHT DIFFERENCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 78 94 79 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 74 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 76 101 78 101 / 10 0 10 10 10
ALICE 97 75 97 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 90 80 90 80 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 74 99 75 99 / 10 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 76 95 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 89 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200921
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PERHAPS ANOTHER DAY OR SO OF ISO/WIDELY SCT PCPN BEFORE THINGS BE-
GIN TO SHUT DOWN. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ALONG WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WSW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE ACTIVITY
TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT AGAIN
FOR FRI WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER COVERAGE AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO SET
IN OVER THE REGION.
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN TEASING US WITH IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY BY THIS WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPS/LOWER
TO NO POPS WILL BE ON TAP STARTING SAT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING ON
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED POPS LATE NEXT WEEK
(INTO THE WEEKEND) AS THE RIDGE LIFTS A BIT N/NE AND DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. 41
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
10-15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN RELAXING SLIGHTLY. A MORE DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON
TAP FOR THE BAYS.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT VERY PATCHY.
OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT SO ISOLATED IN NATURE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TERMINAL FORECASTS.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 75 96 75 96 / 20 20 20 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 81 92 81 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200911
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE 500MB RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONUS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWN ON THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AS THE OUTER BAND OF THE TROPICAL STORM BARRY ENTERS THE
COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN MEXICO TODAY. THE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INCREASE UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE 850
TO 700MB LAYER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING
SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUE INCREASE TO 1.60 INCH WITH A 10 KNOT SE
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AN INCREASE TO PWATS TO 1.90 INCH IS
EXPECTED BY THE 12Z BUFF SOUNDING. THIS IS FROM AN OUTER BAND THAT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA...PORT ISABEL AND SPI. THE CHANCE IS VERY
LOW BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE AND CAN`T BE RULE OUT AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZE
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA VERY SIMILAR COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DIMINISH IN THE LATE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY AND FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
90S EAST OF HWY 281 AND 77 AND TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE
WHOLE CWA WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105F.
TONIGHT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY ATMOS OVER THE
AREA. THE PWATS VALUES BEGIN TO DROP BETWEEN 1.8 TO 1.5 IN FROM THE
LOWER VALLEY AND TO THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVER
NIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE CWA WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO THE 80S.
ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS REACHING
THE LOW 60S DEG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
OVER ZAPATA COUNTY AND THE STARR COUNTY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDING INTO TEXAS FRIDAY WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTER
BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.SEAS WILL BUILD
UP 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM BARRY TODAY.
SCEC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 15
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 78 94 80 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 94 77 94 77 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 98 75 98 77 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 99 77 99 78 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 101 77 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 91 78 91 81 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61/CAMPBELL
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WILL START THE DAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND
EXTEND
00004000
ING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS LOW WOBBLES EAST THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BUT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH CENTER OF THE RIDGE RETURNING WEST TO NEAR THE 4
CORNERS REGION WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM PRESIDIO...
TO ORLA... TO ARTESIA. A NOCTURNAL JET GUSTING OVER 30KTS WAS
PUMPING FRESH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA KEEPING DEWPTS HIGH. EXPECT
STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL QPF STARTS
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE MORNING BETWEEN THE GUADALUPES
AND DAVIS MTNS WHICH HAPPENS TO BE THE SAME PLACE SOME SHOWERS
KICKED OFF YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS EARLY FOR THE
WEST. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TODAY TO LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SE NM. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IT WILL LOOK SIMILAR ON FRIDAY WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SE NM WILL GET HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SATURDAY
QPF EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND AND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE EXTENDED POPS. HAD A LITTLE SEVERE
WX YESTERDAY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S. PW OF 1.0
TO 1.2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED SO SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WARMEST GUIDANCE HAS STILL BEEN JUST A LITTLE
TOO COOL SO WILL STAY A LITTLE ABOVE TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 72 94 71 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 97 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 102 70 99 70 / 30 30 20 20
DRYDEN TX 99 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 94 69 92 70 / 30 30 20 20
HOBBS NM 97 69 95 69 / 30 30 20 20
MARFA TX 92 62 90 61 / 20 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 72 94 72 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 97 72 95 74 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 101 73 99 73 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/72
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200827
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PUSHED UP INTO TEXAS AS A TROUGH
MOVED TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM AREA
RADARS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 7KFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO STRATOCU DECK FORMING THIS MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND A WARM DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL
MEAN A REPEAT FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE IN THE LONGER
TERM. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL NOT COME UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION FROM THE GULF MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED THEM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 76 98 76 98 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 74 97 74 98 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 74 96 / 0 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 94 74 94 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 77 98 78 98 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 74 96 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 96 75 96 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 95 74 96 / 0 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 77 98 77 98 / 10 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 77 95 76 95 / 0 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 76 95 75 94 / 0 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200817
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TEXAS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTH TEXAS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND MAY SLOW WARMING JUST A
BIT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE ABUNDANT SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME
EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF
ANY STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 93 73 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 90 72 91 72 94 / 10 5 5 5 0
DENTON, TX 92 73 91 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 72 92 71 95 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 94 76 95 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 73 93 73 94 / 5 0 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 93 73 93 73 95 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 72 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 71 92 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/79
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200808
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
308 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH LOWS TOMORROW MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...
/SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/
TWO WORDS CAN DESCRIBE THE LONG TERM FORECAST: HOT, DRY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE GRIDS IN THE LONG
TERM...AND ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS TEXAS...THEN
NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THERE IS LITTLE HOPE OF ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO OUR AREA WHERE SINKING MOTION WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL STIFLE
CONVECTION. THE RIDGE THEN SLOWLY REPOSITIONS ITSELF TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEXAS FIRMLY
UNDER THE RIDGE.
BOTTOM LINE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND THE TREND OF SLOWLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE NOT
INSERTED TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN MOST AREAS YET...BUT IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK WEARS ON AND HEAT BUILDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 95 73 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 96 72 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 71 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/20
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200802
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
302 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THEN FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE BERING SEA INTO SIBERIA. HOWEVER...THIS
RIDGE WILL BE IMPINGED UPON BY EXTREMITIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NW OF UL HIGH. ONCE AGAIN...WE
SEE JUST A BIT OF WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH ON THE NW FLANK. WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET APPEARS TO RUN FROM BAJA TO NEAR OUR REGION. H2
ANALYSIS SUGGEST WE COULD BE IN FAVORED LEFT FRONT REGION THOUGH JET
APPEARS TILTED DOWNWARD TO THE NORTH SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE BELOW.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE THAT STANDS OUT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OTHER THAN PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTING SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING DOWN LOWER...BEST THETA-E AXIS LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM NEAR
GUADALUPE PEAK UP THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE JUST EAST OF ZONE OF ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY FROM
KDHT TO KROW. THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN VARIOUS NWP
SOLUTIONS. SO...WHAT IS THE FORECAST? HERE IS WHAT IS EXPECTED
BASED ON THE INFO AVAILABLE AT PRESENT. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THEN MOVE EAST. BULK SHEAR...WHILE
INITIALLY WEAK DURING THE DAY...WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /30-40KT/ PARTICULARLY N AND W OF KLBB DURING
THE EVENING HOURS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS LIKELY UP AROUND
3-4KJ/KG. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY WEST
OF A CHILDRESS TO POST LINE WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE THREAT WEST
OF A SILVERTON TO BROWNFIELD LINE. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS
LOW...IT IS NON-ZERO BUT DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. FOR
HAIL...WILL INITIALLY CALL FOR UP TO BASEBALL SIZE ALONG WITH
TYPICAL SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY BE WRAPPING UP BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BROAD UA LOW MOVING ENE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND AID IN
ESTABLISHING SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL
BE THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...THEREBY PROMOTING WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
THROUGH LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK /90S/. DUE TO THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NW LOW...THE CENTER OF
THE UA RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO TO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. SFC
TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM WILL BE
ONE OF THE FACTORS FOR POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND THE FETCH OF BAJA
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN/EVENING TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INITIATING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN TRANSLATING NE ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN
ZONES...THANKS TO ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC TROUGH...IT IS
HARD TO ARGUE WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUAL DEPICTION OF THIS PRECIP
SIGNAL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL INHERIT PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS WRN ZONES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL
ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON SATURDAY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING A BIT.
NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN NW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY MID
TO LATE WEEK. ONCE THE UA RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...INCREASING CIN WILL
MAKE IT HARD-PRESSED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ONCE THE CENTER
PROPAGATES NW AWAY FROM THE REGION...MODELS SUGGEST AN EMBEDDED
IMPULSE/WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY COULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR/ACROSS THE FA /AS HINTED AT VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF/. WILL
NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS
FOR THE LATTER-HALF OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 64 94 64 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
TULIA 94 66 94 65 93 / 20 30 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 93 66 94 66 93 / 20 20 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 93 67 96 67 95 / 20 30 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 94 68 95 67 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 90 67 98 67 96 / 20 30 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 91 68 96 67 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 98 70 98 70 97 / 10 10 0 10 0
SPUR 97 68 96 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 96 70 98 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/29
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200539
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMIANTE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SFC ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING WIND TO BREEZY/MODERATE LEVELS THIS AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...ISOLD -SHRA`S THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED. CIN VALUES ARE ON
THE INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA`S FROM THIS
EVENING`S FCST. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA (INCLUDING
925MB WINDS)...AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. MAY
HAVE SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR BR AT KALI BUT WILL NOT PUT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY 03Z (EXCEPT AT KLRD WHICH WILL BE
MORE LIKE 08Z). WILL START WITH SOUTH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY
THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SEA-BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS OBSERVED IN OBSERVATIONS TODAY (WITH
SIMILAR GUSTS).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AFTERNOON HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A 10 POP WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO MID 90S IN THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
105 AND 109 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS WITH TODAY...A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
HOLDING STRONG OVER TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY LIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL AID IN HAVING MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL
STILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...BUT NOT A STRONGLY CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PWATS ARE NO
0000C270
T ABOVE
NORMAL BY ANY MEANS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING...AND THEN BETTER
AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DAILY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MAINLY KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WERE ACROSS
THE MARINE AND COASTAL BEND ZONES. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP DAILY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND DROP TO A MORE
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AS WELL...AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 78 97 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 102 78 102 78 102 / 10 0 10 10 10
ALICE 98 76 97 76 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 89 80 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 99 75 99 75 98 / 10 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 98 77 98 78 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 90 79 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200527
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY. EXPECT THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM
BARRY ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CHECKING GOES DERIVED AND AMSU/SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INVERTED TROUGH ARE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A SCHC POP TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT BUT
COLUMN MOISTURE NOT SUPPORTIVE. OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BAND UP THAT AREA OF ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE AND PULL IT
CLOSER TO THE STORM KEEPING OUR RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO. SO NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. /68-JGG/
AVIATION...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY DECREASING HIGH
CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS WILL TAPER THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
MORNING WITH AFTERNOON GUSTINESS BUILDING TO AROUND 22 TO 25KTS. /68-JGG/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUBSIDENT
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIAL ONLY
NEAR THE COASTLINE AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AS YOU GO WEST. SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A FAIRLY WIDE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. SO EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS MAY FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON... BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN THE
10 PERCENT POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AFTER CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE
DIMINISHED A BIT DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE FAIRLY STIFF S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS THE MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLIGHT WARM BIAS
VERSUS THE MAV NUMBERS. WILL GO WITH THE WARMER MET/ECMWF FOR HIGHS
AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV MINS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONTINUING TO BRING HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
MAINLY OVER THE GULF...TRYING TO EDGE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE. MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LACKING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RUNNING 105 TO 109 EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS SE WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT WHILE CLOSER TO THE BAY A LITTLE
STRONGER FLOW PREVAILS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL TIGHTEN UP THE
PGF A BIT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM POSSIBLY PUSHING THE BAY WINDS
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF
REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF MAY PUSH CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS AT NIGHT AS
THE AIR TEMP COOLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPS ALLOWING BETTER
LOW LEVEL MIXING. BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT
THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ANY SCAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ANY EFFECT FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY ARE LOST. GENERAL
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH SEAS REMAIING 3 TO 4 FEET.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200510
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INCLUDED A VCTS AT KMAF AS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY
LATE MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KCNM...KHOB...KINK AND KPEQ DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200503
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS THIS CYCLE STILL DO NOT INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE FOR
ORGANIZED STRATUS RETURN LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM 925 MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELD DATA INDICATE STRATUS MAY RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 12Z. HOWEVER...THE GFS DATA DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING AS
ORGANIZED. PLUS...HIGHER CLOUDS A CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS...MY CONFIDENCE STILL IS NOT VERY HIGH
REGRADING STRATUS RETURN. SO...ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AGAIN THIS
CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY TOMORROW...WITH A DECREASE
TOMORROW EVENING.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS DETAILS.
AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NAM 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD DOES INDICATE STRATUS MAY
RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS RETURN. THUS...FOR THIS CYCLE
I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MVFR CEILINGS IN ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM GUSTY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...PLAN FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR
TOMORROW...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AS
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
BECOMES MORE DOMINATE.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM NEAR LAMESA...TO SWEETWATER...TO BRECKENRIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AS EVIDENT FROM THE MLCAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KTS HAVE MAINTAINED
ORGANIZATION IN THIS CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST TWO SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
MAINLY AFFECTING THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. I HAVE
NOTED THE HRRR INDICATING A LATE NIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONCHO VALLEY BUT I AM PLAYING THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...SOME RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE 60S.
TOMORROW...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TX WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.
LONG TERM...
A STEADY-STATE PATTERN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE. THIS
FEATURE WILL BUILD/EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...
WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION INDICATED NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAILY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. COULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CREEPING UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 96 72 96 72 / 20 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 94 71 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200447
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION...LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF BY
08-09Z. KDRT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/BREAK-OUT DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SE-SLY SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SE-SLY
SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN N CENTRAL TX WAS DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR LEXINGTON WERE ALSO DISSIPATING. ONGOING FORECAST HAS
CONVECTION ENDING AT 10 PM...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE IMPACTS AT KAUS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO AOB
10KTS OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING KAUS/KSAT/KSSF BY
08-09Z. CIGS WILL SCATTER-OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS OVER W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX IS
MOVING SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH TOWARD OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE
THE COARSER MODEL DATA DOES LITTLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...SOME OF THE
FINER RESOLUTION DATA SHOWS THE COMPLEX MOVING AT LEAST INTO AT
LEAST THE AUS METRO AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHC FOR SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME CUMULUS STREETS APPEAR
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO THAT SEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. H5 LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR THURSDAY TO SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THE
WARMING TREND ON TRACK. THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL HAVE STEADY
SE BREEZES TO CONTINUE PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
THE HELP OF ABOVE NORMAL SOIL AND VEGETATION MOISTURE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND...WITH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE SPARSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW COULD PROMOTE SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE RIDGE PRESENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING VERY FAR INTO THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND SLOW FOR
NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ARID CONDITIONS
COULD PUSH MORE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 96 75 97 73 / 10 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 72 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 75 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 73 / - 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 96 76 96 75 / 10 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200438
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
FIRST THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM WHILE
SECOND WATCH WAS CANCELLED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLED TO
MOVE EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BUT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL LIKELY GIVEN
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHILDRESS COUNTY.
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
HOCKLEY COUNTY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIR. AS A
RESULT...STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST. A STRONGER THETA-E
AXIS EXISTS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. STORMS MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRTY
RIDGE AXIS NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SQUEEZE FROM APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING GENERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING
ALONG OR NEAR BOUNDARY...FAVORING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BULK OF
AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE OUTFLOW WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. PERHAPS AREAS INTO REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS CAN RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER SPREADING TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS SHOULD SETTLE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE TO CONTINUE UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SOLIDIFIED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS WITH
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE FULLY
BY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
POSITIONED ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROUGH...POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING BY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTM...FORECAST HAS MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THOUGH BRINGING ANY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES INTO QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 94 65 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
TULIA 66 94 67 94 66 / 20 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 68 94 68 94 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 69 96 69 95 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 71 96 69 95 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 98 69 97 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 97 68 96 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 98 71 98 71 / 20 10 10 0 10
SPUR 70 96 71 96 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 72 98 72 98 72 / 30 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200430
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
TO 15Z THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 21Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY AND MAY AFFECT ALL
THREE TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. STRONG CAP IN WAKE OF
EARLIER DAY MCS PROVED TO BE TOO MUCH FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
HOW WELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY
PROGRESS FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DAY MCS...ENCOUNTERING A MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MLCIN VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THESE HIGHER MLCIN VALUES...INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50KT/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE STABLE LAYER MAY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOWING THE STORM EAST OF TUCUMCARI WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THIS MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
OUTFLOW. TIME WILL ULTIMATELY TELL IF THIS TREND HOLDS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS CERTAINLY THERE IF
STORMS DO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER.
KB
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KAMA TERMINAL THIS EVENING IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER OUT OF EASTERN NM...AND WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL
WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LESS AT
KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DISSIPATE SOME AROUND SUNSET...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AT KAMA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AROUND
14Z THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SCHNEIDER/KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STABILIZE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM OUR STORMS THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE LOSING
FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT CONVECTION
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND COMBINE
WITH STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
THE MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK
WHILE NOT PROGRESSING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW FAR ENOUGH WEST. THIS
ARGUES THAT IF CONVECTION DOES FORM ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW IT
WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OUTFLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
REACH THE PANHANDLES. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND USED AREAL QUANTIFIERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF THE STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO CAN OBTAIN STRONG COLD POOLS THEN THEY
COULD OVERTAKE THE OUTFLOW AND TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS HAPPENS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. ALSO GIVEN AMPLE PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA...1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN UP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PULSING
TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THEN COLLAPSING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES BUT VERY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD
BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200426
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1126 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.UPDATE...
RAN AN UPDATE TO RECONFIGURE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIR AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSED WARM FRONT IS HARD TO SEE IN THE MASS FIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM CENTERVILLE AND
PALESTINE TO GLEN ROSE AND OLNEY REVEAL WHERE IT LIKELY IS
POSITIONED. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THEN
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF MOST OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM GLEN ROSE TO CENTERVILLE...WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM THE MCS STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AFTER THE CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE SOME EAST TEXAS STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY SLIDE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
10-14 POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AREA TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
LATE SEASON BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OR AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE
GULF...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE GOES. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 93 74 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 93 73 94 72 / 40 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 73 92 73 91 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 72 91 72 92 71 / 20 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 77 94 76 95 75 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 73 92 73 93 73 / 20 5 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 93 73 93 73 / 20 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 93 72 93 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 71 92 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200412
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1112 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. ASIDE FROM A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS (CXO AND
LBX) EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
FINAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END OVER NW HARRIS
COUNTY. STORMS TODAY DID DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
WITH PULSE BEHAVIORS. HOUSTON IAH PICKED UP NEARLY AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR THIS EVENING. SOME OTHER HCFCD GAUGES SHOWED 1-2
INCH AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED AREAS. NEARLY 1.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED
NEAR JOHNSON SPACE CENTER. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WITH LIFT FROM
THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO FIGHT
SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SO POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN SOME CASES. UPDATED FORECAST WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION
AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THUS
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION IN FOR A FEW SITES OVER THE FIRST HOUR OR
SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS MCS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF THIS WERE TO HOLD TOGETHER IT COULD IMPACT UTS AND CLL BY AS
EARLY AS 0130-0200Z BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL PERSIST THAT
LONG. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT MAY
HAVE TO AMEND AS IT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 96 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 95 75 95 75 / 10 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 91 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200236
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
936 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FINAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END OVER NW HARRIS
COUNTY. STORMS TODAY DID DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
WITH PULSE BEHAVIORS. HOUSTON IAH PIKCED UP NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN
IN AN HOUR THIS EVENING. SOME OTHER HCFCD GAUGES SHOWED 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED AREAS. NEARLY 1.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED NEAR
JOHNSON SPACE CENTER. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WITH LIFT FROM THE SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO FIGHT SUBSIDENCE
FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SO POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN SOME CASES. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION
AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THUS
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION IN FOR A FEW SITES OVER THE FIRST HOUR OR
SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS MCS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF THIS WERE TO HOLD TOGETHER IT COULD IMPACT UTS AND CLL BY AS
EARLY AS 0130-0200Z BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL PERSIST THAT
LONG. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT MAY
HAVE TO AMEND AS IT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 96 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 95 75 95 75 / 10 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 91 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200221
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN N CENTRAL TX WAS DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR LEXINGTON WERE ALSO DISSIPATING. ONGOING FORECAST HAS
CONVECTION ENDING AT 10 PM...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE IMPACTS AT KAUS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO AOB
10KTS OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING KAUS/KSAT/KSSF BY
08-09Z. CIGS WILL SCATTER-OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS OVER W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX IS
MOVING SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH TOWARD OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE
THE COARSER MODEL DATA DOES LITTLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...SOME OF THE
FINER RESOLUTION DATA SHOWS THE COMPLEX MOVING AT LEAST INTO AT
LEAST THE AUS METRO AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHC FOR SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME CUMULUS STREETS APPEAR
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO THAT SEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. H5 LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR THURSDAY TO SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THE
WARMING TREND ON TRACK. THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL HAVE STEADY
SE BREEZES TO CONTINUE PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
THE HELP OF ABOVE NORMAL SOIL AND VEGETATION MOISTURE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND...WITH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE SPARSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW COULD PROMOTE SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE RIDGE PRESENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING VERY FAR INTO THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND SLOW FOR
NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ARID CONDITIONS
COULD PUSH MORE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 96 75 97 73 / 10 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 72 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 75 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 73 / - 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 96 76 96 75 / 10 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200220
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
920 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FIRST THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM WHILE
SECOND WATCH WAS CANCELLED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLED TO
MOVE EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BUT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL LIKELY GIVEN
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHILDRESS COUNTY.
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
HOCKLEY COUNTY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIR. AS A
RESULT...STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST. A STRONGER THETA-E
AXIS EXISTS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. STORMS MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRTY
RIDGE AXIS NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SQUEEZE FROM APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING GENERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING
ALONG OR NEAR BOUNDARY...FAVORING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BULK OF
AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE OUTFLOW WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. PERHAPS AREAS INTO REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS CAN RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER SPREADING TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS SHOULD SETTLE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE TO CONTINUE UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SOLIDIFIED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS WITH
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE FULLY
BY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
POSITIONED ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROUGH...POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING BY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTM...FORECAST HAS MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THOUGH BRINGING ANY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES INTO QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 94 65 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
TULIA 66 94 67 94 66 / 20 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 68 94 68 94 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 69 96 69 95 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 71 96 69 95 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 98 69 97 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 97 68 96 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 98 71 98 71 / 20 10 10 0 10
SPUR 70 96 71 96 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 72 98 72 98 72 / 30 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200217 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
917 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INCREASED POPS
SOUTHWEST TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU. REDUCING POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS...
INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR MIDLAND AND MAY INCREASE THROUGH
10 PM. ALSO SEEING STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING IN EASTERN REEVES
AND SOUTHERN WARD COUNTIES. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...EXTENDING
RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD. CAP SHOULD BE TAKING HOLD...SO WOULD NOT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN MUCH BEYOND 10 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMAF FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NE
COLLIDES W/CONVECTION COMING OFF THE MTNS WEST. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF DIRECT...HEAVIER CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A 40+KT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...W/BASES 7-9 KFT AGL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER MEXICO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO LOW 90S. SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EARLY MORNING
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...AS NOTED ON RADAR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE NOTE OF THIS IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY HELP
TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW HOWEVER IF WE CAN GET A
WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL THETA E AXIS...THEN ITS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER READINGS IN THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 73 96 72 96 / 30 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 73 97 73 96 / 30 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 71 101 70 100 / 10 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 76 97 75 95 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 97 73 97 / 40 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 94 69 93 / 10 30 30 20
HOBBS NM 71 97 70 96 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA TX 62 92 62 90 / 30 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 96 72 96 / 40 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 73 97 74 96 / 40 10 10 0
WINK TX 73 100 73 100 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200127 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
827 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. STRONG CAP IN WAKE OF
EARLIER DAY MCS PROVED TO BE TOO MUCH FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
HOW WELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY
PROGRESS FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DAY MCS...ENCOUNTERING A MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MLCIN VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THESE HIGHER MLCIN VALUES...INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50KT/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE STABLE LAYER MAY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOWING THE STORM EAST OF TUCUMCARI WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THIS MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
OUTFLOW. TIME WILL ULTIMATELY TELL IF THIS TREND HOLDS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS CERTAINLY THERE IF
STORMS DO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER.
KB
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KAMA TERMINAL THIS EVENING IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER OUT OF EASTERN NM...AND WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL
WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LESS AT
KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DISSIPATE SOME AROUND SUNSET...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AT KAMA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AROUND
14Z THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SCHNEIDER/KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STABILIZE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM OUR STORMS THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE LOSING
FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT CONVECTION
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND COMBINE
WITH STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
THE MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK
WHILE NOT PROGRESSING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW FAR ENOUGH WEST. THIS
ARGUES THAT IF CONVECTION DOES FORM ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW IT
WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OUTFLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
REACH THE PANHANDLES. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND USED AREAL QUANTIFIERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF THE STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO CAN OBTAIN STRONG COLD POOLS THEN THEY
COULD OVERTAKE THE OUTFLOW AND TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS HAPPENS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. ALSO GIVEN AMPLE PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA...1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN UP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PULSING
TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THEN COLLAPSING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES BUT VERY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD
BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200050
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
RAN AN UPDATE TO RECONFIGURE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIR AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DIVED SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS MINIMAL...BUT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AIRPORTS...WILL CONTINUE TO VCTS UNTIL 1Z.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL IMPACT WACO AFTER
00Z AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. AFTER
STORMS DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY WITH JUST SOME SCT
CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSED WARM FRONT IS HARD TO SEE IN THE MASS FIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM CENTERVILLE
00010FE2
AND
PALESTINE TO GLEN ROSE AND OLNEY REVEAL WHERE IT LIKELY IS
POSITIONED. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THEN
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF MOST OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM GLEN ROSE TO CENTERVILLE...WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM THE MCS STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AFTER THE CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE SOME EAST TEXAS STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY SLIDE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
10-14 POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AREA TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
LATE SEASON BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OR AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE
GULF...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE GOES. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 93 74 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 93 73 94 72 / 30 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 72 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 73 92 73 91 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 72 91 72 92 71 / 20 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 77 94 76 95 75 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 73 92 73 93 73 / 20 5 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 93 73 93 73 / 20 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 93 72 93 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 71 92 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200048
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
748 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...ISOLD -SHRA`S THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED. CIN VALUES ARE ON
THE INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA`S FROM THIS
EVENING`S FCST. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA (INCLUDING
925MB WINDS)...AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. MAY
HAVE SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR BR AT KALI BUT WILL NOT PUT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY 03Z (EXCEPT AT KLRD WHICH WILL BE
MORE LIKE 08Z). WILL START WITH SOUTH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY
THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SEA-BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS OBSERVED IN OBSERVATIONS TODAY (WITH
SIMILAR GUSTS).
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AFTERNOON HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A 10 POP WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO MID 90S IN THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
105 AND 109 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS WITH TODAY...A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
HOLDING STRONG OVER TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY LIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL AID IN HAVING MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL
STILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...BUT NOT A STRONGLY CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT ABOVE
NORMAL BY ANY MEANS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING...AND THEN BETTER
AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DAILY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MAINLY KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WERE ACROSS
THE MARINE AND COASTAL BEND ZONES. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP DAILY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND DROP TO A MORE
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AS WELL...AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 78 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 96 76 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 102 78 / 10 10 0 10 10
ALICE 75 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 89 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 99 75 99 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 90 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200038
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
738 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS CONTINUE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NAM 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD DOES INDICATE STRATUS MAY
RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS RETURN. THUS...FOR THIS CYCLE
I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MVFR CEILINGS IN ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM GUSTY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...PLAN FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR
TOMORROW...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AS
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
BECOMES MORE DOMINATE.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM NEAR LAMESA...TO SWEETWATER...TO BRECKENRIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AS EVIDENT FROM THE MLCAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KTS HAVE MAINTAINED
ORGANIZATION IN THIS CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST TWO SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
MAINLY AFFECTING THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. I HAVE
NOTED THE HRRR INDICATING A LATE NIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONCHO VALLEY BUT I AM PLAYING THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...SOME RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE 60S.
TOMORROW...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TX WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.
LONG TERM...
A STEADY-STATE PATTERN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE. THIS
FEATURE WILL BUILD/EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...
WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION INDICATED NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAILY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. COULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CREEPING UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 96 72 96 72 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER
000
FXUS64 KEWX 192329
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE IMPACTS AT KAUS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO AOB
10KTS OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING KAUS/KSAT/KSSF BY
08-09Z. CIGS WILL SCATTER-OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS OVER W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX IS
MOVING SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH TOWARD OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE
THE COARSER MODEL DATA DOES LITTLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...SOME OF THE
FINER RESOLUTION DATA SHOWS THE COMPLEX MOVING AT LEAST INTO AT
LEAST THE AUS METRO AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHC FOR SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME CUMULUS STREETS APPEAR
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO THAT SEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. H5 LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR THURSDAY TO SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THE
WARMING TREND ON TRACK. THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL HAVE STEADY
SE BREEZES TO CONTINUE PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
THE HELP OF ABOVE NORMAL SOIL AND VEGETATION MOISTURE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND...WITH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE SPARSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW COULD PROMOTE SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE RIDGE PRESENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING VERY FAR INTO THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND SLOW FOR
NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ARID CONDITIONS
COULD PUSH MORE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 96 75 97 73 / 20 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 20 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 72 94 71 / 20 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 75 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 96 72 / 20 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 73 / - 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 96 76 96 75 / 20 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192325 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
HOW WELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY
PROGRESS FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DAY MCS...ENCOUNTERING A MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MLCIN VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THESE HIGHER MLCIN VALUES...INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50KT/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE STABLE LAYER MAY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOWING THE STORM EAST OF TUCUMCARI WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THIS MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
OUTFLOW. TIME WILL ULTIMATELY TELL IF THIS TREND HOLDS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS CERTAINLY THERE IF
STORMS DO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER.
KB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KAMA TERMINAL THIS EVENING IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER OUT OF EASTERN NM...AND WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL
WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LESS AT
KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DISSIPATE SOME AROUND SUNSET...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AT KAMA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AROUND
14Z THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SCHNEIDER/KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STABILIZE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM OUR STORMS THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE LOSING
FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT CONVECTION
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND COMBINE
WITH STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
THE MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK
WHILE NOT PROGRESSING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW FAR ENOUGH WEST. THIS
ARGUES THAT IF CONVECTION DOES FORM ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW IT
WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OUTFLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
REACH THE PANHANDLES. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND USED AREAL QUANTIFIERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF THE STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO CAN OBTAIN STRONG COLD POOLS THEN THEY
COULD OVERTAKE THE OUTFLOW AND TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS HAPPENS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. ALSO GIVEN AMPLE PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA...1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN UP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PULSING
TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THEN COLLAPSING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES BUT VERY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD
BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/08
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192319 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
619 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA (INCLUDING
925MB WINDS)...AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. MAY
HAVE SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR BR AT KALI BUT WILL NOT PUT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY 03Z (EXCEPT AT KLRD WHICH WILL BE
MORE LIKE 08Z). WILL START WITH SOUTH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY
THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SEA-BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS OBSERVED IN OBSERVATIONS TODAY (WITH
SIMILAR GUSTS).
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AFTERNOON HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A 10 POP WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO MID 90S IN THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
105 AND 109 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS WITH TODAY...A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
HOLDING STRONG OVER TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY LIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL AID IN HAVING MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL
STILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...BUT NOT A STRONGLY CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT ABOVE
NORMAL BY ANY MEANS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING...AND THEN BETTER
AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DAILY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MAINLY KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WERE ACROSS
THE MARINE AND COASTAL BEND ZONES. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP DAILY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND DROP TO A MORE
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AS WELL...AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 78 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 96 76 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 102 78 / 10 10 0 10 10
ALICE 75 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 89 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 99 75 99 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 90 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192318
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THUS
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION IN FOR A FEW SITES OVER THE FIRST HOUR OR
SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS MCS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
IF THIS WERE TO HOLD TOGETHER IT COULD IMPACT UTS AND CLL BY AS
EARLY AS 0130-0200Z BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL PERSIST THAT
LONG. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT MAY
HAVE TO AMEND AS IT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 96 75 97 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 95 75 95 75 / 30 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 91 81 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192318
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COULD AFFECT KLBB IN THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS OF THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
TO KCDS BY LATER TONIGHT WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHILDRESS COUNTY.
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
HOCKLEY COUNTY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIR. AS A
RESULT...STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST. A STRONGER THETA-E
AXIS EXISTS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. STORMS MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRTY
RIDGE AXIS NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SQUEEZE FROM APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING GENERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING
ALONG OR NEAR BOUNDARY...FAVORING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BULK OF
AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE OUTFLOW WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. PERHAPS AREAS INTO REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS CAN RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER SPREADING TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS SHOULD SETTLE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE TO CONTINUE UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SOLIDIFIED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS WITH
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE FULLY
BY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
POSITIONED ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROUGH...POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING BY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTM...FORECAST HAS MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THOUGH BRINGING ANY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES INTO QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 94 65 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
TULIA 66 94 67 94 66 / 20 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 68 94 68 94 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 69 96 69 95 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 71 96 69 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 98 69 97 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 97 68 96 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 98 71 98 71 / 10 10 10 0 10
SPUR 70 96 71 96 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 72 98 72 98 72 / 20 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KBRO 192311 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
611 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM
BARRY ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CHECKING GOES DERIVED AND AMSU/SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INVERTED TROUGH ARE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A SCHC POP TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT BUT
COLUMN MOISTURE NOT SUPPORTIVE. OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BAND UP THAT AREA OF ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE AND PULL IT
CLOSER TO THE STORM KEEPING OUR RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO. SO NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. /68-JGG/
&&
.AVIATION...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY DECREASING HIGH
CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS WILL TAPER THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
MORNING WITH AFTERNOON GUSTINESS BUILDING TO AROUND 22 TO 25KTS. /68-JGG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUBSIDENT
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIAL ONLY
NEAR THE COASTLINE AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AS YOU GO WEST. SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A FAIRLY WIDE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. SO EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS MAY FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON... BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN THE
10 PERCENT POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AFTER CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE
DIMINISHED A BIT DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE FAIRLY STIFF S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS THE MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLIGHT WARM BIAS
VERSUS THE MAV NUMBERS. WILL GO WITH THE WARMER MET/ECMWF FOR HIGHS
AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV MINS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONTINUING TO BRING HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
MAINLY OVER THE GULF...TRYING TO EDGE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE. MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LACKING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RUNNING 105 TO 109 EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS SE WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT WHILE CLOSER TO THE BAY A LITTLE
STRONGER FLOW PREVAILS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL TIGHTEN UP THE
PGF A BIT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM POSSIBLY PUSHING THE BAY WINDS
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF
REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF MAY PUSH CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS AT NIGHT AS
THE AIR TEMP COOLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPS ALLOWING BETTER
LOW LEVEL MIXING. BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT
THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ANY SCAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ANY EFFECT FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY ARE LOST. GENERAL
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH SEAS REMAIING 3 TO 4 FEET.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
68/53
000
FXUS64 KFWD 192310
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DIVED SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS MINIMAL...BUT WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AIRPORTS...WILL CONTINUE TO VCTS UNTIL 1Z.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER WILL IMPACT WACO AFTER
00Z AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. AFTER
STORMS DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY WITH JUST SOME SCT
CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSED WARM FRONT IS HARD TO SEE IN THE MASS FIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM CENTERVILLE AND
PALESTINE TO GLEN ROSE AND OLNEY REVEAL WHERE IT LIKELY IS
POSITIONED. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THEN
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF MOST OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM GLEN ROSE TO CENTERVILLE...WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM THE MCS STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AFTER THE CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE SOME EAST TEXAS STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY SLIDE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
10-14 POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AREA TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
LATE SEASON BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OR AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE
GULF...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE GOES. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 93 74 95 73 / 30 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 93 73 94 72 / 60 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 71 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 73 92 73 91 71 / 30 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 72 91 72 92 71 / 20 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 77 94 76 95 75 / 30 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 73 92 73 93 73 / 20 5 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 93 73 93 73 / 40 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 93 72 93 71 / 40 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 71 92 70 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192256
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMAF FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NE
COLLIDES W/CONVECTION COMING OFF THE MTNS WEST. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF DIRECT...HEAVIER CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A 40+KT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...W/BASES 7-9 KFT AGL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER MEXICO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO LOW 90S. SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EARLY MORNING
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...AS NOTED ON RADAR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE NOTE OF THIS IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY HELP
TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW HOWEVER IF WE CAN GET A
WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL THETA E AXIS...THEN ITS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER READINGS IN THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192247
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHILDRESS COUNTY.
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
HOCKLEY COUNTY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIR. AS A
RESULT...STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST. A STRONGER THETA-E
AXIS EXISTS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. STORMS MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRTY
RIDGE AXIS NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SQUEEZE FROM APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING GENERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING
ALONG OR NEAR BOUNDARY...FAVORING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BULK OF
AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE OUTFLOW WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. PERHAPS AREAS INTO REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS CAN RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER SPREADING TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS SHOULD SETTLE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE TO CONTINUE UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SOLIDIFIED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS WITH
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE FULLY
BY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
NO MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
POSITIONED ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROUGH...POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING BY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTM...FORECAST HAS MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THOUGH BRINGING ANY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES INTO QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 94 65 93 65 / 30 20 20 20 20
TULIA 66 94 67 94 66 / 20 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 68 94 68 94 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 69 96 69 95 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 71 96 69 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 98 69 97 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 97 68 96 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 98 71 98 71 / 10 10 10 0 10
SPUR 70 96 71 96 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 72 98 72 98 72 / 20 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192115
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BORDERLAND
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE HIGH
BEGINS DRIFTING OVER NEW MEXICO AND BY NEXT THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF THE HIGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH STILL AN INCREASE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
VERY SHARP DRYLINE WAS SITUATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WITH ABOUT A 40 DEGREE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THIS LINE HAS
SINCE MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS STILL DEEPEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH WILL STAY MOSTLY PARKED IN
PLACE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS ALLOWING WEAKER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA. SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW...AND IT`S
PLACEMENT WILL BE THE WHOLE KEY TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SPREAD POPS TO MOST AREAS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT HAVE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST (SUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE). NOT EXPECTING MANY
IF ANY STORMS TO REACH SEVERE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA WOULD LIKELY BE THE PLACE IF ANY OCCUR...AS THAT AREA
WILL SEE MUCAPES OF AROUND 500-1500 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
PW`S AROUND ONE INCH...ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VEERING SHEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AND COLORADO BY THURSDAY. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND THIS PATTERN WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING FROM COLORADO/NEW MEXICO OVER TO THE ATLANTIC
BASIN COULD BE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON (HOPEFULLY).
DESPITE THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP IN THIS PATTERN...THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS MAIN UPPER
TRAJECTORY STILL IS MOSTLY CONTINENTAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER EASTERN
HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES. WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 10-15
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. WINDS IN THE GILA REGION
WILL BE STRONGER AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY WITH POOR RH RECOVERY ONLY IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK
DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ANS LOW TEENS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST AND PICKING UP TO 10
TO 15 MPH OVER MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW. WINDS OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE GILA WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE THURSDAY PM. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GILA REGION...MAINLY CATRON
COUNTY...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS FROM THE BOOTHEEL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GILA. MINIMUM RH TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR 20% EAST. HAINES
INDICES GENERALLY 4 OR 5 THURSDAY...EXCEPT 6 OVER THE GILA REGION.
HAINES INDICES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 100 75 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 72 97 71 97 72 / 20 20 30 10 20
LAS CRUCES 71 99 71 99 72 / 10 0 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 72 98 68 97 69 / 10 10 20 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 78 50 77 51 / 20 30 20 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 98 73 97 74 / 0 0 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 61 92 60 93 60 / 0 0 10 10 20
DEMING 68 100 67 98 68 / 0 0 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 66 98 67 98 68 / 0 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 78 99 79 / 10 10 10 10 20
DELL CITY 67 97 65 97 66 / 20 20 30 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 75 103 76 / 20 20 30 10 20
LOMA LINDA 64 91 62 92 62 / 10 10 20 10 20
FABENS 72 102 72 100 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
SANTA TERESA 73 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 97 72 97 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 66 98 65 98 66 / 10 0 10 10 20
HATCH 70 95 69 95 70 / 10 0 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 72 99 70 99 71 / 0 0 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 72 99 70 99 71 / 10 10 20 10 20
MAYHILL 59 85 58 83 59 / 20 30 20 20 30
MESCALERO 56 88 54 88 55 / 20 30 20 20 30
TIMBERON 56 84 54 84 55 / 20 20 30 20 30
WINSTON 56 89 55 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 20
HILLSBORO 63 92 64 93 64 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 68 97 67 97 68 / 0 0 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 57 91 57 90 58 / 0 10 10 10 20
HURLEY 63 93 62 94 62 / 0 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 49 97 51 96 55 / 0 0 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 46 95 47 97 47 / 0 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 63 93 62 93 62 / 0 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 67 98 67 98 68 / 0 0 10 10 20
HACHITA 68 99 67 98 68 / 0 0 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 100 69 100 70 / 0 0 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 66 93 65 95 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ110.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PARK
000
FXUS64 KSJT 192040
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM NEAR LAMESA...TO SWEETWATER...TO BRECKENRIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AS EVIDENT FROM THE MLCAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KTS HAVE MAINTAINED
ORGANIZATION IN THIS CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST TWO SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
MAINLY AFFECTING THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. I HAVE
NOTED THE HRRR INDICATING A LATE NIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONCHO VALLEY BUT I AM PLAYING THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...SOME RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE 60S.
TOMORROW...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TX WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.
.LONG TERM...
A STEADY-STATE PATTERN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE. THIS
FEATURE WILL BUILD/EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...
WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION INDICATED NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAILY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. COULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CREEPING UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 96 72 96 72 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSON/19
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192040
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AFTERNOON HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A 10 POP WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO MID 90S IN THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
105 AND 109 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS WITH TODAY...A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
HOLDING STRONG OVER TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY LIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL AID IN HAVING MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL
STILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...BUT NOT A STRONGLY CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT ABOVE
NORMAL BY ANY MEANS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING...AND THEN BETTER
AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DAILY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MAINLY KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WERE ACROSS
THE MARINE AND COASTAL BEND ZONES. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP DAILY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND DROP TO A MORE
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AS WELL...AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 78 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 96 76 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 102 78 / 10 10 0 10 10
ALICE 75 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 89 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 99 75 99 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 90 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEWX 192034
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS OVER W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX IS
MOVING SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH TOWARD OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE
THE COARSER MODEL DATA DOES LITTLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...SOME OF THE
FINER RESOLUTION DATA SHOWS THE COMPLEX MOVING AT LEAST INTO AT
LEAST THE AUS METRO AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND A
MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE
A SLIGHT CHC FOR SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME CUMULUS STREETS APPEAR
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO THAT SEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. H5 LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED OVER
CENTRAL TX FOR THURSDAY TO SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THE
WARMING TREND ON TRACK. THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL HAVE STEADY
SE BREEZES TO CONTINUE PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH
THE HELP OF ABOVE NORMAL SOIL AND VEGETATION MOISTURE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND...WITH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE SPARSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SLIGHTLY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW COULD PROMOTE SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE RIDGE PRESENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING VERY FAR INTO THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND SLOW FOR
NOW...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ARID CONDITIONS
COULD PUSH MORE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 96 75 97 73 / 20 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 20 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 72 / 10 0 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 72 94 71 / 20 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 75 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 96 72 / 20 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 73 / - 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 0 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 96 76 96 75 / 20 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192033
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRTY
RIDGE AXIS NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SQUEEZE FROM APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING GENERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING
ALONG OR NEAR BOUNDARY...FAVORING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BULK OF
AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE OUTFLOW WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. PERHAPS AREAS INTO REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS CAN RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER SPREADING TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS SHOULD SETTLE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE TO CONTINUE UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SOLIDIFIED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS WITH
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE FULLY
BY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
POSITIONED ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROUGH...POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING BY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTM...FORECAST HAS MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THOUGH BRINGING ANY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES INTO QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 94 65 93 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
TULIA 66 94 67 94 66 / 10 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 68 94 68 94 67 / 10 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 69 96 69 95 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 71 96 69 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 98 69 97 68 / 30 20 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 97 68 96 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 98 71 98 71 / 10 10 10 0 10
SPUR 70 96 71 96 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 72 98 72 98 72 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192033
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR...OR DEVELOPING WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE
RESIDES. SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PROPAGATING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE COUNTY MAY PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS
FOR MORE WESTERN-BASED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. IF THE REGION DOESN`T
FEEL THE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS S/W...THEN LOCAL
MESOSCALE BREEZES...SUCH AS THE SEA (OR BAY) BREEZE...MAY ALSO
AID IN PROVIDING THAT LATE DAY FOCUS. WITH LOW 90F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING MET WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT...ANY
BLOSSOMING ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HOURS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG THESE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
MODEL ENSEMBLE IN AGREEMENT OF SOUTHWESTERN-BASED 5H RIDGING ENVELOPING
THE STATE FROM TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES
OCCUR...THEN ANY RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE 30 PERCENT OR UNDER
AND CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOCAL AFTERNOON BREEZE BEHAVIOR. PARTIALLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO VARIANCE WITH EACH OF SUBSEQUENT
DAY`S TEMPERATURE EXTREMA. THE DISCLAIMER WILL BE FOR RELATIVELY COOLER
AFTERNOON NUMBERS OVER AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LATE DAY (ISOLATED)
CONVECTION. AS THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE A GOOD PORTION
OF THE EASTERN U.S...OVERALL WEEKEND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AND
DRY. MODELING HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EXISTENCE/STRENGTH OF AN SLOW
APPROACHING GOM EASTERLY WAVE. THERE IS A HINT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO FORM UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BUT...AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH IT BEING THE
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER...CLIMO STANDARDS FOR MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS)
PEAK OUT BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.0 INCHES. THUS...HOT AND `SEASONABLY`
HUMID LATE PERIOD CONDITIONS UNDER AN ENTRENCHED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FWIW...EARLY DAY WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD ERODE EACH SUCCESSIVE
DAY AS EARLY PM TEMPS EXCEED THE LOWER 90S...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAT-OF-THE-DAY BREEZE-INDUCED CONVECTION. 31
&&
.MARINE...
A DIURNAL PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT RELAXING IN THE
MORNING OVER THE GULF AND GENERALLY LIGHTER FOR THE BAYS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. TYPICAL WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY IN THE GULF. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 96 75 97 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 95 75 95 75 / 30 20 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 91 81 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31/43
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192028
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STABILIZE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM OUR STORMS THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE LOSING
FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT CONVECTION
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND COMBINE
WITH STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
THE MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK
WHILE NOT PROGRESSING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW FAR ENOUGH WEST. THIS
ARGUES THAT IF CONVECTION DOES FORM ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW IT
WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OUTFLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
REACH THE PANHANDLES. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND USED AREAL QUANTIFIERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF THE STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO CAN OBTAIN STRONG COLD POOLS THEN THEY
COULD OVERTAKE THE OUTFLOW AND TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS HAPPENS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. ALSO GIVEN AMPLE PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA...1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN UP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PULSING
TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THEN COLLAPSING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES BUT VERY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD
BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
000
FXUS64 KBRO 192020
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
320 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUBSIDENT
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIAL ONLY
NEAR THE COASTLINE AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AS YOU GO WEST. SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A FAIRLY WIDE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. SO EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS MAY FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON... BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN THE
10 PERCENT POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AFTER CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE
DIMINISHED A BIT DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE FAIRLY STIFF S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS THE MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLIGHT WARM BIAS
VERSUS THE MAV NUMBERS. WILL GO WITH THE WARMER MET/ECMWF FOR HIGHS
AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV MINS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONTINUING TO BRING HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
MAINLY OVER THE GULF...TRYING TO EDGE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE. MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LACKING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RUNNING 105 TO 109 EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS SE WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT WHILE CLOSER TO THE BAY A LITTLE
STRONGER FLOW PREVAILS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL TIGHTEN UP THE
PGF A BIT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM POSSIBLY PUSHING THE BAY WINDS
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF
REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF MAY PUSH CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS AT NIGHT AS
THE AIR TEMP COOLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPS ALLOWING BETTER
LOW LEVEL MIXING. BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT
THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ANY SCAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ANY EFFECT FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY ARE LOST. GENERAL
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH SEAS REMAIING 3 TO 4 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 94 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 75 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 77 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 77 102 / 0 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 90 80 91 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
60/64
000
FXUS64 KFWD 192007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSED WARM FRONT IS HARD TO SEE IN THE MASS FIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM CENTERVILLE AND
PALESTINE TO GLEN ROSE AND OLNEY REVEAL WHERE IT LIKELY IS
POSITIONED. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THEN
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF MOST OF THE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM GLEN ROSE TO CENTERVILLE...WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM THE MCS STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AFTER THE CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE SOME EAST TEXAS STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE MAY SLIDE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
10-14 POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW AREA TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE COULD LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
LATE SEASON BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OR AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE
GULF...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE GOES. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 93 74 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 74 93 73 94 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 71 90 72 91 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 73 92 73 91 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 72 91 72 92 71 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 77 94 76 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 73 92 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 93 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 72 93 72 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 94 71 92 70 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192001
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER MEXICO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO LOW 90S. SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EARLY MORNING
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...AS NOTED ON RADAR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WIL
00004000
L MAKE NOTE OF THIS IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY HELP
TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW HOWEVER IF WE CAN GET A
WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL THETA E AXIS...THEN ITS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER READINGS IN THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 73 96 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 71 101 70 100 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 76 97 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 94 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
HOBBS NM 71 97 70 96 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA TX 62 92 62 90 / 20 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 10 0
WINK TX 73 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/44
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191851 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
151 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME OF THE
USUAL PATCHY FAIR WX LOW LEVEL CLDS OVER THE REGION AS THE SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.59 INCHES. THE NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WIDE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT SPREAD FOR THE REGION THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. THIS WOULD
POINT TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A MINIMAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZE AS
IT WAS THE LAST TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
BUT EXPECT A CHANGE INTO TOMORROW WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS
RETURNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED
TO WHAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY ENTER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL AID THE RIDGE AXIS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS TO THE WEST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INFILTRATE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND THE CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT BUT REMAIN S/SE
WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE CWA DIRECTLY
THE CLOUD COVER OF THE OUTER BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM INTAKES ALL THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX WILL
REACH THE 100 TO 106 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR WED AND THU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT MAINLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN IT MAY INITIATE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HINTED AT YESTERDAY...WAS WHETHER OR
NOT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE EAST. THIS FEATURE...SO PROMINENT IN AT
LEAST THE GFS MODEL THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS MENTIONED
AS BEING MUCH LESS REDUCED IN THE MODEL DATA BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
.AND INDEED...IS ALL BUT MISSING FROM THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER NEAR 1.50 INCHES FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD...DECENT...BUT NOT NEAR THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE 2.00 INCHES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST WITH HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO BUILD AND THE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF WATERS.
EXPECT CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS INSTEAD POSSIBLE
FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 94 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 78 96 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 77 99 78 100 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 78 102 / 0 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 79 91 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...VEGA
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191806
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
106 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
LARGE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ROLLING PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH LOSS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY INFLOW THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PASSED INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MANY
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AREAS ON THE CAP-ROCK...AND MAY EXTEND HIGHER
CHANCES INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. SLIGHT RISK SEVERE REMAINS IN
ADDITIONAL TO AT LEAST LOCAL RISK OF FLOODING WITH MUCH ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
BACKSIDE OF LARGE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO WORK
THROUGH THE KCDS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT THE
HEAVIEST REMAINING RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH...WE HELD ON TO
TEMPO MODERATE RAIN SHOWER AT KCDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESTORE BACK TO GENERAL VFR FOLLOWING WITH
COOLER STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATING. POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT
SITUATION AT KLBB WHICH RECENTLY HAD A MODERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PASS THROUGH WITH SHOWERS FORMING NEARLY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY. EASTERLY FLOW STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL FOR LIGHT BLOWING
DUST RESTRICTIONS WHILE SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN MVFR CLOUD
LAYER FOLLOWED OUTFLOW AS WELL. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE COOLER
OUTFLOW WILL SHOVE REMAINING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND BEST THUNDER
CHANCES TO THE WEST...BUT BETTER CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE LURKING NEARBY LEADING TO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WHATEVER SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST
AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD CLEAR THE KLBB AREA BY MID TO LATE THIS
EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...TSTM
COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY AFFECT KCDS AROUND 13Z
AND THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY AT THAT
TERMINAL. INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME TSTMS DEVELOP NW OF
KLBB BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION EXPLICITLY ATTM.
IT WILL BE WARM TODAY-CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL USA THIS MORNING
WITH A NOTABLE LOW COMING ASHORE THE OREGON COAST. FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...NWP HAS HINTED AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUT
INDICATIONS THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG BEND INTO THURSDAY. WHAT DOES APPEAR IS
THAT A LIMB OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC NW LOW. THIS
WILL NO DOUBT CAUSE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE
MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE WELL NW OF US. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR...WE MUST TURN TO MORE
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ASCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONGER THAN TYPICAL. THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF ANY
BOUNDARIES IN NWP WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS BACK A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
THETA-E FIELDS WILL BE LOCATED WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THINGS REMAINING CAPPED EAST WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INHERITED FCST APPEARS TO CAPTURE NEWEST THINKING
QUITE WELL AND WILL ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH BECOME ESTABLISHED AS MUCAPE OF 2KJ/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM...
THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH ABOVE NORM WARMTH /MID TO UPPER 90S/. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EAST TOWARDS
NORTH CENTRAL TX/SW OK...COURTESY OF A BROAD UA LOW ACROSS THE NW
PACIFIC CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. AS SUCH...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT NW OF THE CWA...FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. SFC LEE TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NM MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE
TRANSPORT OF BAJA MOISTURE...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND DIURNAL
HEATING. LOCALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...BUT PRECIP ACTIVITY BRUSHING ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES
IS PLAUSIBLE...WITH HIGH DEPENDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS
EACH AFTN-EVENING TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WITH 10-13 PERCENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...WARM CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
/90S/ AS THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS BY MID-WEEK. GENERALLY...DRY
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DOMINATE DURING THE SAID RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE /LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN ZONES MONDAY EVENING/. NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THIS AS
THE NEED FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THIS WEAKNESS
IS DESIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 94 65 93 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
TULIA 68 94 67 94 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 69 94 68 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 69 96 69 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 70 96 69 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 98 69 97 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 70 97 68 96 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 70 98 71 98 71 / 20 10 10 0 10
SPUR 70 96 71 96 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 98 72 98 72 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191752 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPATED FOR 18Z AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z AT ALI/VCT/CRP...
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING AT LRD. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AT ALI/VCT DUE TO PATCHY FOG/BR TOWARDS SUNRISE. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS LAREDO BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST ATTM. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PICK UP AOA 15Z ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ONSHORE SFC WIND WILL INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTN. WIND WL DECREASE DRG THE
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 09-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WRN GULF. ANTICIPATE THAT
LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS/COAST THIS MORNING (SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREDOMINATE OVER THE WRN CWA AND THUS NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.) OTHERWISE...CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MODERATE/BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE
105-109F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTN.
MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF NAM DETERMINISTIC 1-KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND
SUGGEST AT LEAST (NOCTURAL) SCEC CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WL PERSIST FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS AND THUS WL NOT ISSUE
AN SCA. BASED ON ANTICIPATED PRIMARY SWELL CHARACTERISTICS/WIND
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRENGTHENING IN THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BALK
CONVECTION CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAKENING IN THE UPPER RIDGE OCCURS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY...THO PWAT VALUES
REMAIN LOW COMPARED TO NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES. MAINLY TRIMMED POPS
TO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLA
00004000
INS THROUGH THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH ONCE MORE BETWEEN
105 TO 109 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 96 78 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 101 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 75 97 75 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 88 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 97 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191749 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DFW METROPLEX AND WACO VICINITIES.
A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
KBKD /BRECKENRIDGE/ TO NEAR KACT /WACO/ TO 30 MILES NE OF KCLL
/COLLEGE STATION/ WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THE CHANCES AT THE
INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS IS LOW...SO HAVE JUST PLACED VCTS FOR THE 20Z
TO 00Z PERIOD AT KACT /WACO/ AND LEFT OUT A MENTION OF VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR NOW. UPDATES FOR THE DFW METROPLEX TAFS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TOWERING CUMULUS IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 16Z THURSDAY.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
A WEAK...DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OVER THE WESTERN CWA
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OF
PALESTINE. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO AID IN FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE MCS OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST HAD HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ON ITS SOUTHERN END. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA COUNTIES OF YOUNG AND STEPHENS AS EARLY AS 2 PM.
ALTHOUGH OUR ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETTER THAN 1800 J/KG...THE MCS
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING BULK SHEAR WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. CAPE VALUES ALONE
SUGGEST SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH
DOWNBURST WINDS. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 89 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 94 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 90 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 93 75 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 93 72 93 73 94 / 30 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 71 96 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/75
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191747
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
MOIST...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ALOFT. I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS SCT-FEW VFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 1O KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. KDRT TERMINAL FEW VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. KDRT WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 10 TO
15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
S AND SE SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A SFC RIDGE
CONTINUES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE MID TO LATE JUNE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THROUGH 15Z CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN
OCNL SCT VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF...AND FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 2 THSD FT WEST OF KSAT AND KSSF TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL BECOME
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 3 THSD TO 5 THSD FT AFTER 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS NEAR 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN VCNTY OF
KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY WILL BE SE AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS FROM MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL BE A DRY
PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORNING CLOUDINESS TO THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY A
REPEAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING MORE STRONGLY
ESTABLISHED.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY AND WARM FORECAST. SOME MINOR
CHANGES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF
TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 98 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 97 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 73 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 74 95 72 / - 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 97 76 97 75 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191737
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
ONGOING CONVECTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX WILL REACH KABI. GIVEN THE
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF THE COMPLEX /AND THAT THE STRONGEST
CELL WILL MISS TO THE EAST/...I LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF BUT
DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AND VARIABLE...GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE A WEAK DIURNAL CU FIELD GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BUT THE
RAP AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE WARM
THIS EVENING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SO THE TAFS WERE LEFT AS VFR THROUGH 18Z. I
DID...HOWEVER...ADD MENTION OF SCT025 DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT
KJCT/KSOA. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12 KTS /GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS/
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING TO 12-15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ITS ON
COURSE TO AFFECT THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER NOON. THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING AT GENERALLY SUB SEVERE LEVELS BUT ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE A MODEST AMOUNT OF
CINH EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINTAINED ITS
STRONG INTENSITY. MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG
RESIDE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...COINCIDENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS CONVECTION AS IT
ENTERS THE BIG COUNTRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THIS
THREAT LOOKS REASONABLY LOW...HOWEVER.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH. IF THIS CONVECTION PERSISTS...ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED. IN ADDITION...I MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE WIND/TEMP
GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE UPDATED
PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
/12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18KT BY MID-
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IS WEAKENING AND THE LATEST IR SAT PIC IS SHOWING RAPID
CLOUD TOP WARMING. WHILE RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND GIVEN THE CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING OFF THE DRYLINE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY LATER TODAY. CONSEQUENTIALLY...HAVE INCLUDED THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SQUELCH ANY
CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S WITH
LOWS TOMORROW MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SMALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
FIRING OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS OUR CWA. WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER
THE RIDGE...MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG WARMING TREND OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL ADDING MOISTURE TO THE AREA MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
MAKING IT TO 100 DEGREES. SO...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 96 73 95 74 95 / 20 5 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 97 72 96 73 96 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 95 70 94 72 93 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/99/99
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191714
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1214 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW FAIRLY HIGH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S AND PW VALUES WILL APPROACH
1.80 INCHES. WEAK CAPPING IS NOTED AT 600 MB BUT THIS LOOKS
BREAKABLE. WILL CARRY VCTS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO FOR KIAH
AND KHOU AT THIS TIME. NAM 12 IS AGAIN AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS AND PERSISTENCE
WHICH FAVORS MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM...SLOW EASTERN-MOVING
POCKETS OF MID-MORNING RAIN (LOCALLY HEAVY OVER NORTHERN MADISON
COUNTY) AROUND THE LAKE LIVINGSTON REGION. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FEW SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES LAYING ABOUT WITHIN A
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS (BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS) THAT MAY PROVIDE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES FIRE. NEAR 90F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
ENVIRONMENT SETS THE STAGE FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...OR WHERE THE
HIGHER OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES. IF ACTIVITY DOES BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
LATTER TODAY...APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAIN. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WHILE NOT AS ACTIVE THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY...RADAR LOOPS DO IN-
DICATE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SFC BOUNDARIES LINGERING IN/AROUND
SE TX. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOME
WHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE REGION...WILL BE GOING WITH
SCT POPS FOR TODAY. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS THAT DO FORM.
FCST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TRENDING TOWARD WARMER TEMPS/LESS
POPS AS MODELS ARE IN SL
00004000
IGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH-
ENING RIDGE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING UPPER LONGWAVE
TROF. HOWEVER NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE PREV-
IOUS MISSES OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. AS SUCH WILL BE KEEPING ISO
AFTN/DAYTIME POPS IN THE FCSTS FOR THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. 41
MARINE...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT RELAXING IN THE
MORNING OVER THE GULF AND GENERALLY LIGHTER FOR THE BAYS WITH THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. TYPICAL WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY IN THE GULF. SEAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-4
FEET WITH THE GREATER 3 TO 4 FOOT VALUES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
SMALL SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TD2 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD EXPAND
NORTH AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. 45 &&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 75 96 75 97 / 30 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 75 95 75 95 / 30 30 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 90 81 91 / 20 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191616 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
A WEAK...DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OVER THE WESTERN CWA
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OF
PALESTINE. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO AID IN FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE MCS OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST HAD HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ON ITS SOUTHERN END. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA COUNTIES OF YOUNG AND STEPHENS AS EARLY AS 2 PM.
ALTHOUGH OUR ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETTER THAN 1800 J/KG...THE MCS
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING BULK SHEAR WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. CAPE VALUES ALONE
SUGGEST SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH
DOWNBURST WINDS. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WITH VIS
GENERALLY AROUND 5SM. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIMARILY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BUT THIS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDS IN THE
METROPLEX...ALTHOUGH AN AMD OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS DROPS
FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AS THEY APPROACH SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 93 71 94 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 93 75 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 93 72 93 73 94 / 30 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 71 96 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191614
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1114 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME...W/BASES 7-9 KFT AGL. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCNM AND KHOB...W/MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN CONVECTION. CU WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT KCNM NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...W/BASES 9 KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...GUSTY RETURN
FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED BY A 40+KT LLJ OVERNIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY JUNE
21ST... THE REGION HAS SETTLED INTO THE SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AS THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE. ANOTHER FEATURE OF SUMMER WX
FOR THIS AREA IS THE RARITY OF FRONTS AND NONE ARE SEEN OUT THROUGH
240HRS. SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WX FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION UP TO NEAR CANADA. AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE NW THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BE DISLODGED FROM THE
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE IN THE
MID 90S... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND
DAVIS MTNS/ALPINE/MARFA. SEE HINTS OF PATCHY STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP
AS OF 08Z... COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN PERMIAN
BASIN AND OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS... BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPS.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. MODELS DO
DEVELOP QPF OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT MAY BE OVER DOING COVERAGE. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN INCH SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191520
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1020 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ITS ON
COURSE TO AFFECT THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER NOON. THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING AT GENERALLY SUB SEVERE LEVELS BUT ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE A MODEST AMOUNT OF
CINH EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINTAINED ITS
STRONG INTENSITY. MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG
RESIDE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...COINCIDENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS CONVECTION AS IT
ENTERS THE BIG COUNTRY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THIS
THREAT LOOKS REASONABLY LOW...HOWEVER.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH. IF THIS CONVECTION PERSISTS...ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED. IN ADDITION...I MADE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE WIND/TEMP
GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW AND
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE UPDATED
PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
/12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18KT BY MID-
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IS WEAKENING AND THE LATEST IR SAT PIC IS SHOWING RAPID
CLOUD TOP WARMING. WHILE RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND GIVEN THE CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING OFF THE DRYLINE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY LATER TODAY. CONSEQUENTIALLY...HAVE INCLUDED THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SQUELCH ANY
CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S WITH
LOWS TOMORROW MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SMALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
FIRING OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS OUR CWA. WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER
THE RIDGE...MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG WARMING TREND OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL ADDING MOISTURE TO THE AREA MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
MAKING IT TO 100 DEGREES. SO...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE MOST PART WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 96 73 95 74 95 / 20 5 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 97 72 96 73 96 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 95 70 94 72 93 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191457
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
957 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM...SLOW EASTERN-MOVING
POCKETS OF MID-MORNING RAIN (LOCALLY HEAVY OVER NORTHERN MADISON
COUNTY) AROUND THE LAKE LIVINGSTON REGION. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FEW SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES LAYING ABOUT WITHIN A
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS (BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS) THAT MAY PROVIDE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES FIRE. NEAR 90F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
ENVIRONMENT SETS THE STAGE FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...OR WHERE THE
HIGHER OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES. IF ACTIVITY DOES BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
LATTER TODAY...APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAIN. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
CXO STILL DOWN AT 1/2SM FG AND VV002 BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER SITES
WERE VFR. THE SHOWERS WERE STILL LINGERING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CLL TO UTS TO JAS (TOPS
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191434
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
934 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTING AROUND KGDP THIS
MORNING...WHICH CURRENT MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON. WE/LL DO A
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND UPDATE OTHER PARAMETERS AS
NECESSARY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNM AND KHOB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL START
00004000
OF SUMMER IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY JUNE
21ST... THE REGION HAS SETTLED INTO THE SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AS THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE. ANOTHER FEATURE OF SUMMER WX
FOR THIS AREA IS THE RARITY OF FRONTS AND NONE ARE SEEN OUT THROUGH
240HRS. SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WX FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION UP TO NEAR CANADA. AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE NW THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BE DISLODGED FROM THE
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE IN THE
MID 90S... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND
DAVIS MTNS/ALPINE/MARFA. SEE HINTS OF PATCHY STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP
AS OF 08Z... COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN PERMIAN
BASIN AND OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS... BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPS.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. MODELS DO
DEVELOP QPF OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT MAY BE OVER DOING COVERAGE. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN INCH SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 98 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 98 73 97 73 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 100 71 101 70 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 98 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 73 97 73 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 92 69 94 69 / 30 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 97 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA TX 91 62 91 60 / 20 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 99 73 96 72 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 99 73 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 101 73 100 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/27
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191431
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
931 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST TO CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LATEST TSTM COMPLEX IS TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...WITH KGUY MOST AFFECTED BY THE TSTMS AS OF THIS WRITING
AND KDHT THE LEAST OVERALL. KEPT A MENTION OF TSTMS AT KGUY FOR FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THIS FCST CYCLE. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT AT KDHT AS MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THAT AREA. KAMA IS A CLOSE CALL WITH
PSBLTY OF STORMS GETTING CLOSE TO THIS TERMINAL SITE. AFTER THIS TSTM
COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WEATHER SHOULD BE BENIGN. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IF STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE ISOLD IN NATURE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INTRODUCE
TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE FOR LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING ACTING UPON A MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S/ HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO OK THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN LATER THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN NM BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS RISE
LEADING TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES AND
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATING NEAR THIS SURFACE
TROUGH DUE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH SINCE THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT CAN
EFFECTIVELY CAP THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE AN LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN WHERE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE NWP
MODELS GENERATING QPF OVER THE AMA CWA...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE CAPPING WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER
WEAK UPPER LIFT CAN BE PROVIDED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH CAN LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
PATTERN HOLDS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE MORE UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED NON
MENTIONABLE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT GREEN
UP SHOULD LIMIT ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 15 MPH...
PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
99/14
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191206
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
CXO STILL DOWN AT 1/2SM FG AND VV002 BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER SITES
WERE VFR. THE SHOWERS WERE STILL LINGERING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CLL TO UTS TO JAS (TOPS
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191202 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LATEST TSTM COMPLEX IS TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...WITH KGUY MOST AFFECTED BY THE TSTMS AS OF THIS WRITING
AND KDHT THE LEAST OVERALL. KEPT A MENTION OF TSTMS AT KGUY FOR FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THIS FCST CYCLE. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT AT KDHT AS MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THAT AREA. KAMA IS A CLOSE CALL WITH
PSBLTY OF STORMS GETTING CLOSE TO THIS TERMINAL SITE. AFTER THIS TSTM
COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WEATHER SHOULD BE BENIGN. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IF STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE ISOLD IN NATURE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INTRODUCE
TSTMS AT ANY TAF SITE FOR LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING ACTING UPON A MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S/ HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO OK THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN LATER THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN NM BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS RISE
LEADING TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES AND
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATING NEAR THIS SURFACE
TROUGH DUE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH SINCE THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT CAN
EFFECTIVELY CAP THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE AN LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN WHERE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE NWP
MODELS GENERATING QPF OVER THE AMA CWA...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE CAPPING WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER
WEAK UPPER LIFT CAN BE PROVIDED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH CAN LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
PATTERN HOLDS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE MORE UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED NON
MENTIONABLE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT GREEN
UP SHOULD LIMIT ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 15 MPH...
PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191159 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WITH VIS
GENERALLY AROUND 5SM. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIMARILY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BUT THIS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDS IN THE
METROPLEX...ALTHOUGH AN AMD OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS DROPS
FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AS THEY APPROACH SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINAN
000028DF
T WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 94 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 69 92 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 94 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 70 96 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191132
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNM AND KHOB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY JUNE
21ST... THE REGION HAS SETTLED INTO THE SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AS THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE. ANOTHER FEATURE OF SUMMER WX
FOR THIS AREA IS THE RARITY OF FRONTS AND NONE ARE SEEN OUT THROUGH
240HRS. SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WX FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION UP TO NEAR CANADA. AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE NW THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BE DISLODGED FROM THE
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE IN THE
MID 90S... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND
DAVIS MTNS/ALPINE/MARFA. SEE HINTS OF PATCHY STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP
AS OF 08Z... COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN PERMIAN
BASIN AND OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS... BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPS.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. MODELS DO
DEVELOP QPF OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT MAY BE OVER DOING COVERAGE. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN INCH SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191128
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZE AS
IT WAS THE LAST TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
BUT EXPECT A CHANGE INTO TOMORROW WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS
RETURNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED
TO WHAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY ENTER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL AID THE RIDGE AXIS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS TO THE WEST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INFILTRATE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND THE CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT BUT REMAIN S/SE
WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE CWA DIRECTLY
THE CLOUD COVER OF THE OUTER BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM INTAKES ALL THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX WILL
REACH THE 100 TO 106 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR WED AND THU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT MAINLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN IT MAY INITIATE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HINTED AT YESTERDAY...WAS WHETHER OR
NOT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE EAST. THIS FEATURE...SO PROMINENT IN AT
LEAST THE GFS MODEL THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS MENTIONED
AS BEING MUCH LESS REDUCED IN THE MODEL DATA BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
..AND INDEED...IS ALL BUT MISSING FROM THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER NEAR 1.50 INCHES FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD...DECENT...BUT NOT NEAR THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE 2.00 INCHES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST WITH HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO BUILD AND THE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF WATERS.
EXPECT CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS INSTEAD POSSIBLE
FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/66
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191126
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ONSHORE SFC WIND WILL INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTN. WIND WL DECREASE DRG THE
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 09-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WRN GULF. ANTICIPATE THAT
LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS/COAST THIS MORNING (SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREDOMINATE OVER THE WRN CWA AND THUS NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.) OTHERWISE...CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MODERATE/BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE
105-109F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTN.
MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF NAM DETERMINISTIC 1-KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND
SUGGEST AT LEAST (NOCTURAL) SCEC CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WL PERSIST FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS AND THUS WL NOT ISSUE
AN SCA. BASED ON ANTICIPATED PRIMARY SWELL CHARACTERISTICS/WIND
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRENGTHENING IN THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BALK
CONVECTION CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAKENING IN THE UPPER RIDGE OCCURS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY...THO PWAT VALUES
REMAIN LOW COMPARED TO NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES. MAINLY TRIMMED POPS
TO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH ONCE MORE BETWEEN
105 TO 109 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 79 96 78 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 97 76 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 103 77 101 78 10
00004000
2 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 100 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 89 81 88 80 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 98 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 99 77 97 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 89 79 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191108
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
608 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18KT BY MID-
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 95 73 95 74 95 / 10 5 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 96 72 96 73 96 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 70 94 72 93 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191053
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
S AND SE SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A SFC RIDGE
CONTINUES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE MID TO LATE JUNE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THROUGH 15Z CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN
OCNL SCT VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF...AND FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 2 THSD FT WEST OF KSAT AND KSSF TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL BECOME
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 3 THSD TO 5 THSD FT AFTER 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH CIGS NEAR 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN VCNTY OF
KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY WILL BE SE AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS FROM MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL BE A DRY
PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORNING CLOUDINESS TO THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY A
REPEAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING MORE STRONGLY
ESTABLISHED.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY AND WARM FORECAST. SOME MINOR
CHANGES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF
TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 74 98 75 97 / - 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 97 73 96 / - 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 95 73 94 / - 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 72 94 73 93 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 77 98 76 96 / - 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 96 74 95 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 73 95 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 75 95 73 94 / - 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 77 97 76 97 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 95 75 94 / - 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 94 73 93 / - 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191046
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...TSTM
COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY AFFECT KCDS AROUND 13Z
AND THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY AT THAT
TERMINAL. INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME TSTMS DEVELOP NW OF
KLBB BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION EXPLICITLY ATTM.
IT WILL BE WARM TODAY-CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL USA THIS MORNING
WITH A NOTABLE LOW COMING ASHORE THE OREGON COAST. FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...NWP HAS HINTED AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUT
INDICATIONS THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG BEND INTO THURSDAY. WHAT DOES APPEAR IS
THAT A LIMB OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC NW LOW. THIS
WILL NO DOUBT CAUSE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE
MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE WELL NW OF US. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR...WE MUST TURN TO MORE
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ASCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONGER THAN TYPICAL. THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF ANY
BOUNDARIES IN NWP WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS BACK A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
THETA-E FIELDS WILL BE LOCATED WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THINGS REMAINING CAPPED EAST WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INHERITED FCST APPEARS TO CAPTURE NEWEST THINKING
QUITE WELL AND WILL ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH BECOME ESTABLISHED AS MUCAPE OF 2KJ/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM...
THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH ABOVE NORM WARMTH /MID TO UPPER 90S/. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EAST TOWARDS
NORTH CENTRAL TX/SW OK...COURTESY OF A BROAD UA LOW ACROSS THE NW
PACIFIC CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. AS SUCH...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT NW OF THE CWA...FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. SFC LEE TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NM MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE
TRANSPORT OF BAJA MOISTURE...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND DIURNAL
HEATING. LOCALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...BUT PRECIP ACTIVITY BRUSHING ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES
IS PLAUSIBLE...WITH HIGH DEPENDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS
EACH AFTN-EVENING TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WITH 10-13 PERCENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...WARM CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
/90S/ AS THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS BY MID-WEEK. GENERALLY...DRY
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DOMINATE DURING THE SAID RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE /LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN ZONES MONDAY EVENING/. NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THIS AS
THE NEED FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THIS WEAKNESS
IS DESIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 65 94 65 93 / 20 20 20 20 20
TULIA 92 68 94 67 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 69 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 96 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 94 70 96 69 95 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 69 98 69 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 96 70 97 68 96 / 10 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 93 70 98 71 98 / 10 20 10 10 0
SPUR 91 70 96 71 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 96 70 98 72 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191016
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
516 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING ACTING UPON A MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S/ HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO OK THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN LATER THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN NM BY THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS RISE
LEADING TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES AND
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATING NEAR THIS SURFACE
TROUGH DUE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH SINCE THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT CAN
EFFECTIVELY CAP THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE AN LARGE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN WHERE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE NWP
MODELS GENERATING QPF OVER THE AMA CWA...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN SINCE CAPPING WILL MOST LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER
WEAK UPPER LIFT CAN BE PROVIDED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH CAN LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS
PATTERN HOLDS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE MORE UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED NON
MENTIONABLE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND 20 FOOT
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT GREEN
UP SHOULD LIMIT ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 15 MPH...
PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 92 67 93 68 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
BEAVER OK 95 66 101 68 100 / 20 20 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 95 63 96 64 95 / 20 20 10 20 20
BORGER TX 94 71 96 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 96 68 96 70 98 / 20 20 10 20 10
CANYON TX 93 67 93 68 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
CLARENDON TX 94 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 10 5 5
DALHART TX 95 64 94 63 95 / 20 20 10 20 20
GUYMON OK 94 66 98 67 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
HEREFORD TX 93 66 92 66 94 / 20 20 10 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 92 69 98 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
PAMPA TX 92 68 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 91 70 96 70 96 / 20 20 10 5 10
WELLINGTON TX 94 71 98 71 96 / 20 20 10 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191006
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WRN GULF. ANTICIPATE THAT
LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS/COAST THIS MORNING (SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREDOMINATE OVER THE WRN CWA AND THUS NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.) OTHERWISE...CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MODERATE/BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE
105-109F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF NAM DETERMINISTIC 1-KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND
SUGGEST AT LEAST (NOCTURAL) SCEC CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WL PERSIST FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS AND THUS WL NOT ISSUE
AN SCA. BASED ON ANTICIPATED PRIMARY SWELL CHARACTERISTICS/WIND
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRENGTHENING IN THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BALK
CONVECTION CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAKENING IN THE UPPER RIDGE OCCURS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY...THO PWAT VALUES
REMAIN LOW COMPARED TO NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES. MAINLY TRIMMED POPS
TO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH ONCE MORE BETWEEN
105 TO 109 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 79 96 78 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 97 76 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 103 77 101 78 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 100 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 89 81 88 80 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 98 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 99 77 97 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 89 79 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191003
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
00004000
FOR THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR
100 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THAT MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
HOT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOWLAND
AREAS.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A
PORTION OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND WEAKENS THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST. AS RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
FREQUENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY
WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND LOWLAND AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
OVER LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING SOME
RAIN TO ALL AREAS OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD.
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR BUT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. LONG RANGE MODELS
PROJECT THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD...PUTTING THE
AREA UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP A WARM SUMMER TIME
PATTERN OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
PLACE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH VALID PD. SOME ISOLD
T-STORMS AFT 18Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER AND THE MOUNTAINS.
STORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN EAST
OF A KDMN-KTCS LINE. WINDS 220-240/10-20G25KT ARE EXPECTED AFT 17Z
ALL AREAS. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-080 ALG AND EAST IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS AFT 15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL AREAS STARTING ROUGHLY MID DAY.
GUSTS MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 30 MPH RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH FAVORED EXPOSURE. STORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...EXPECT ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ISOLATED WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
THROUGH THE WEEK...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF US...WILL SLOWLY RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CIRCULATION AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY...TO ADVECT MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY FOR THE GILA
REGION AND SACS STARTING THURSDAY AS A RESULT. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOWLAND MIN RH TODAY WILL RANGE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...TO NEAR 20% EAST. LOWER TEENS TO 20% ARE IN STORE
FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. VALUES CLIMB ROUGHLY ANOTHER 5-12% ALL AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER 3-5% FRIDAY
HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 5-6 TODAY...WITH 6 EXPECTED FOR
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE 5. VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 4-5 THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 102 76 100 76 100 / 0 10 20 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 100 72 97 72 98 / 20 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 101 71 99 72 100 / 0 10 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 101 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 20 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 81 52 77 52 77 / 20 20 30 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 74 98 74 98 / 0 0 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 94 63 92 63 93 / 0 0 10 20 20
DEMING 101 68 100 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 100 66 98 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 102 77 99 79 100 / 10 10 10 20 20
DELL CITY 100 67 97 66 98 / 20 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 105 74 104 76 104 / 10 20 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 95 66 91 65 92 / 10 20 20 20 20
FABENS 103 72 102 73 101 / 10 10 20 10 20
SANTA TERESA 100 73 99 75 100 / 10 10 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 100 72 97 73 98 / 0 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 100 66 98 66 99 / 0 10 10 10 20
HATCH 97 70 95 70 96 / 0 10 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 101 72 99 71 100 / 0 0 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 101 72 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 20 20
MAYHILL 86 59 84 60 82 / 20 20 30 30 30
MESCALERO 88 56 87 56 87 / 20 20 30 20 30
TIMBERON 85 56 83 56 83 / 10 20 20 20 30
WINSTON 92 58 89 58 88 / 0 0 10 20 20
HILLSBORO 95 65 92 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 99 68 97 68 98 / 0 10 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 92 58 91 60 90 / 0 0 10 20 20
HURLEY 96 65 93 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 97 61 97 62 97 / 0 0 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 97 48 95 50 97 / 0 0 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 95 65 93 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 101 67 98 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
HACHITA 101 68 99 68 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 102 70 100 70 101 / 0 0 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 97 68 93 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190943
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE NOT AS ACTIVE THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY...RADAR LOOPS DO IN-
DICATE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SFC BOUNDARIES LINGERING IN/AROUND
SE TX. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOME
WHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE REGION...WILL BE GOING WITH
SCT POPS FOR TODAY. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS THAT DO FORM.
FCST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TRENDING TOWARD WARMER TEMPS/LESS
POPS AS MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH-
ENING RIDGE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING UPPER LONGWAVE
TROF. HOWEVER NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE PREV-
IOUS MISSES OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. AS SUCH WILL BE KEEPING ISO
AFTN/DAYTIME POPS IN THE FCSTS FOR THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. 41
&&
.MARINE...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT RELAXING IN THE
MORNING OVER THE GULF AND GENERALLY LIGHTER FOR THE BAYS WITH THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. TYPICAL WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY IN THE GULF. SEAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-4
FEET WITH THE GREATER 3 TO 4 FOOT VALUES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
SMALL SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TD2 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD EXPAND
NORTH AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. 45 &&
.AVIATION...
CXO DOWN TO 100-200 FT CIGS WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SPOTTY WET GROUND LOOKS TO BE
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY SPOTTY LOWER CIGS. SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED A PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES DRAPED OVER THE REGION
WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KACT-SOUTH OF KDKR
TO NEAR KJAS. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING MAINLY
FOR UTS AREA THEN WITH ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THE LINGERING MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS IN CURRENT SET OF TAFS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS IF ONE GETS INTO A TERMINAL COULD HAMPER
OPERATIONS FOR LENGTHY PERIODS.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 75 96 75 97 / 30 30 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 75 95 75 95 / 30 30 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 90 81 91 / 20 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190915
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
415 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED
TO WHAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY ENTER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL AID THE RIDGE AXIS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS TO THE WEST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INFILTRATE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND THE CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT BUT REMAIN S/SE
WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL NOT IMPACT THE CWA DIRECTLY
THE CLOUD COVER OF THE OUTER BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM INTAKES ALL THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX WILL
REACH THE 100 TO 106 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR WED AND THU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT MAINLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN IT MAY INITIATE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...HINTED AT YESTERDAY...WAS WHETHER OR
NOT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE EAST. THIS FEATURE...SO PROMINENT IN AT
LEAST THE GFS MODEL THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WAS MENTIONED
AS BEING MUCH LESS REDUCED IN THE MODEL DATA BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
...AND INDEED...IS ALL BUT MISSING FROM THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS.
ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER NEAR 1.50 INCHES FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD...DECENT...BUT NOT NEAR THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE 2.00 INCHES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST WITH HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO BUILD AND THE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF WATERS.
EXPECT CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS INSTEAD POSSIBLE
FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 78 / 0 0 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 80 89 79 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
FXC/MESO...BILLINGS-58
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190836
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY JUNE
21ST... THE REGION HAS SETTLED INTO THE SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AS THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE. ANOTHER FEATURE OF SUMMER WX
FOR THIS AREA IS THE RARITY OF FRONTS AND NONE ARE SEEN OUT THROUGH
240HRS. SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WX FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION UP TO NEAR CANADA. AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE NW THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BE DISLODGED FROM THE
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE IN THE
MID 90S... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND
DAVIS MTNS/ALPINE/MARFA. SEE HINTS OF PATCHY STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP
AS OF 08Z... COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN PERMIAN
BASIN AND OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS... BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPS.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. MODELS DO
DEVELOP QPF OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT MAY BE OVER DOING COVERAGE. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN INCH SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 98 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 97 73 97 73 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 102 71 101 70 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 73 97 73 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 94 69 94 69 / 30 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 97 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA TX 92 62 91 60 / 20 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 97 73 96 72 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 98 73 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 101 73 100 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/72
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190818
AFDFWD
AREA FO
00004000
RECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 94 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 69 92 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 94 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 70 96 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/79
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190816
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS FROM MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL BE A DRY
PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORNING CLOUDINESS TO THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY A
REPEAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING MORE STRONGLY
ESTABLISHED.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY AND WARM FORECAST. SOME MINOR
CHANGES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF
TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 74 98 75 97 / - 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 97 73 96 / - 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 95 73 94 / - 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 72 94 73 93 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 77 98 76 96 / - 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 96 74 95 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 73 95 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 75 95 73 94 / - 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 77 97 76 97 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 95 75 94 / - 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 94 73 93 / - 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190806
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IS WEAKENING AND THE LATEST IR SAT PIC IS SHOWING RAPID
CLOUD TOP WARMING. WHILE RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND GIVEN THE CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING OFF THE DRYLINE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY LATER TODAY. CONSEQUENTIALLY...HAVE INCLUDED THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SQUELCH ANY
CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S WITH
LOWS TOMORROW MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE SMALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE GFS AND EC BOTH
SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FIRING OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO
OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MOST OF
THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR
EAST AS OUR CWA. WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE...MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE A STRONG WARMING TREND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL ADDING MOISTURE TO
THE AREA MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MAKING IT TO 100 DEGREES.
SO...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MOST PART WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 95 73 95 74 95 / 10 5 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 96 72 96 73 96 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 94 70 94 72 93 / 5 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/20
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190800
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL USA THIS MORNING
WITH A NOTABLE LOW COMING ASHORE THE OREGON COAST. FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...NWP HAS HINTED AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUT
INDICATIONS THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG BEND INTO THURSDAY. WHAT DOES APPEAR IS
THAT A LIMB OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC NW LOW. THIS
WILL NO DOUBT CAUSE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE
MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE WELL NW OF US. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR...WE MUST TURN TO MORE
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ASCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONGER THAN TYPICAL. THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF ANY
BOUNDARIES IN NWP WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS BACK A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
THETA-E FIELDS WILL BE LOCATED WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THINGS REMAINING CAPPED EAST WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INHERITED FCST APPEARS TO CAPTURE NEWEST THINKING
QUITE WELL AND WILL ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH BECOME ESTABLISHED AS MUCAPE OF 2KJ/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH ABOVE NORM WARMTH /MID TO UPPER 90S/. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EAST TOWARDS
NORTH CENTRAL TX/SW OK...COURTESY OF A BROAD UA LOW ACROSS THE NW
PACIFIC CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. AS SUCH...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT NW OF THE CWA...FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. SFC LEE TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NM MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE
TRANSPORT OF BAJA MOISTURE...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND DIURNAL
HEATING. LOCALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...BUT PRECIP ACTIVITY BRUSHING ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES
IS PLAUSIBLE...WITH HIGH DEPENDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS
EACH AFTN-EVENING TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WITH 10-13 PERCENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...WARM CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
/90S/ AS THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS BY MID-WEEK. GENERALLY...DRY
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DOMINATE DURING THE SAID RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE /LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN ZONES MONDAY EVENING/. NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THIS AS
THE NEED FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THIS WEAKNESS
IS DESIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 65 94 65 93 / 20 20 20 20 20
TULIA 92 68 94 67 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 69 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 96 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 94 70 96 69 95 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 69 98 69 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 96 70 97 68 96 / 10 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 93 70 98 71 98 / 10 20 10 10 0
SPUR 91 70 96 71 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 96 70 98 72 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/29
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190552
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DIMINISH AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN HOUR OF
MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN
THE EVENING AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO DEVELOP WITH
AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 77 AND 281 BEING THE MOST AFFECTED. VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO SATURATED A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
DEVELOPING A THIN LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 15-25K FEET. DRIER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX THROUGH THIS LAYER WITH FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD STEADILY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD MAINTAINING A PRETTY DRY ATMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS BRING A VORT LOBE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE TX COASTLINE TOMORROW. NORMALLY THIS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE CONV TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABSENT OVER THE REGION. WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LEFT OF T.D.
TWO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE RGV AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
POOLED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX AWAY FROM TX. SO WILL GO NIL POPS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH FAIRLY SPARSE CLD COVER EXPECTED.
THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOW PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS HERE. THE NAM AND
ECMWF HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE GFS FOR TOMORROWS HIGH. THE NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND WILL GO CLOSER
TO THIS OVERALL TREND VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS HIGH TEMPS FOR
WED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL GO WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN THAT THE SEABREEZE SPURS SOME PRECIPITATION STARTING
SUNDAY. MODELS TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL DRAW FURTHER
NORTH...WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FINALLY GO UNDERNEATH IT
INTO TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SETUP HAS BEEN
SHOWN DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEABREEZE
FORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE US77 AND US281 CORRIDORS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE S-SE
FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW
FOR THE WINDS TO PUSH UP INTO SCEC TERRITORY BRIEFLY OVER THE
SHORT TERM. THE T.D. TWO OR THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
NHC DOES EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN A T.D. AS IT LIMPS ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THIS GENERAL LACK OF ORGANIZATION
EXPECTED THE OVERALL SWELL IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL OR NON-EXISTENT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WILL KEEP THE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN MARINE THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHER LONG-PERIOD
SWELLS EMANATING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THESE WILL FADE OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/66
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190539
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 AM CDT WED J
00004000
UN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES DURING THE 09-13Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. LIGHT S/SE SFC
WIND EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WIND TO
MODERATE/BREEZY DRG THE AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...REMOVED THUNDER...AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE RAIN ALL
TOGETHER (EXCEPT FOR GULFMEX)...CONSIDERING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO AREA AND IMPACTS OF DISTURBANCE
EXITING. HOWEVER...HAVE SEEN A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) FROM
TIME TO TIME (OUT OF AREA THOUGH) SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS FINE. WILL KEEP
MORNING RAIN (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) IN FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER TO KEEP IT OR NOT.
NO OTHER REAL CHANGES NEEDED...SO DID NOT MESS WITH TOO MUCH AS
EVEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PANNING OUT AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. THINKING A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
SKY CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TEMPORARILY MVFR
CONDITION FOR ANY SITE...BUT THE CHANCE SEEMS LOW CONSIDERING WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE WIND FORECAST FOR LRD SITE. UNSURE IF
SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NON-GUSTY
SOLUTION...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND OVERNIGHT IF SEA BREEZE
APPROACHES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 80 97 80 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 76 96 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 102 78 102 79 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 97 76 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 98 75 98 76 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 98 78 98 79 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190503
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SE
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SCATTERED
CLOUDS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190455
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXISTS THROUGH
12Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS LOW AT BEST. CDS HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. CIN IS ON THE RISE
DUE TO WARMING AT THE MID LEVELS FORMING A PRETTY STOUT CAP...WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE AMA 00Z SOUNDING...AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
COMING TO AN END. THE BEST CHANCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST KS.
THESE STORMS HOWEVER HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 62 94 64 94 / 30 40 20 20 20
TULIA 85 65 93 68 95 / 20 40 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 86 66 93 69 95 / 20 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 87 67 95 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 87 68 95 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 69 95 70 97 / 20 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 87 69 96 69 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 89 69 93 70 98 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 88 69 94 70 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 88 70 96 72 99 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31/51
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190450 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGUY AND KDHT WILL POSE THREAT TO THOSE TERMINALS
THROUGH 08Z. MUCH LESS CERTAIN IF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH
KAMA. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCTS REMARK FOR KAMA FROM 08Z TO 12Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED. COULD
SEE BRIEF BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY AROUND 11 TO 15Z...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT ON TUE.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...KEEPING HIGHER FIRST TERM POPS IN
THE NORTH...AND LOWERING SAME SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AT AMARILLO.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE TROF POISED TO
HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL NOT ELIMINATE POPS ENTIRELY. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KDHT AND KGUY 02-05Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS HIGHER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 05Z AT KAMA...AND
WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION 05-09Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT
IMPACT HERE AND THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. THE NEXT CONCERN IS LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY
WHERE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST GIVEN GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND
WINDS STAYING MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY CIGS ATTM...ALTHOUGH THEY CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT
ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE MOSTLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
POSSIBLY DUE TO A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CUMULUS HAS LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT
AND THINK THAT THE CAP WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS IN THE PANHANDLES UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION FINALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SO
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCLUDE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE TWO
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LIFT NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COULD HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTION BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. STILL...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
WARRANT 20 POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST
A FEW FEATURES...INCLUDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TOMORROW...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS...COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS
AND GREEN UP.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/03
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190442
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM THE
PREVIOUS TERMINALS. STRATUS RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOKS
UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONT REMAINS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WE DID HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA EARLIER. HOWEVER...THAT ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. FOR TOMORROW...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE NAM STILL BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS...I WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE ABILENE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...PLAN
FOR NIL WEATHER.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
TO REMOVE POPS...
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS. ALSO...CONVECTION
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT BELIEVE
THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...SO I
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN NORTHWES
00002E09
T FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST...THEY COULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW. THUS...I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL FOR TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...THE NAM DEVELOPS A
MINOR SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEN...THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES IT SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUS...I DECIDED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL BEGINNING AT 18Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT OR
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FORECAST THIS
EVENING...AND IN BIG COUNTRY MAINLY LATE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY OTHERWISE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...AS A CAP HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WHERE A DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BREAK THE CAP. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...IF STORMS INITIATING IN THE PANHANDLE
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SB CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO COULD SEE A STRONG OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...IF
THEY DEVELOP. CAPES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG COUNTRY
INCREASE TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT THEY
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING AN INCREASING CAP.
04
LONG TERM...
HOT AND DRY...DRY AND HOT. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE
FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE CALENDAR AS A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
SETUP IS IN ORDER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. THIS MEANS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
DURING THIS TIME. THE SUBSIDENT REGIME IS READILY APPARENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THIS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS WEST CENTRAL TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACTING AS A
STRONG CAP WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE LOOKS
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE
PRESENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AND THROUGHOUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATION
GREENUP...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY HOT THIS
WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES OF 5 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 95 72 94 74 / 10 20 5 0 0
SAN ANGELO 71 97 72 96 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
JUNCTION 70 94 71 93 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER/04/JOHNSON
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190438
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
&&
.AVIATION...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS EVENING IS TO REPLACE MENTION OF VCSH
WITH VCTS AS ATMOSPHERE LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TOMORROW TO SUPPORT
THUNDER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FINALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
ONLY ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED TO NEAR KSGR AND ESE OF HOUSTON WHERE
FLS REMAINS IN EFFECT. DID HAVE SOME GOOD RAIN TOTALS WITH A
COUPLE OF THE HCFCD GAGES SHOWING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS.
STORM ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF KSGR SHOWING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FAIRLY ISOLATED STORM. KEPT SOME 30/40 POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
AND THEN 20 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE
AS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. TOMORROW THINK POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPDATED FORECAST
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION
AVIATION...
TSRA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERN SITES
HAVE CLEARED OUT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
METRO AREA TAF SITES. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS IT LIES BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND
SEABREEZE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS INLAND TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 30 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190432
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1132 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH S-SE WINDS OF 5-10
KNOTS. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE MVFR CIGS WILL NOT
AFFECT KDRT. THE MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND SCT TO VFR
BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S-SE WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE
WEST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOWER POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND I-35 CORRIDOR AND SHOW LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH S-SE
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCT TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING WED AFTERNOON. S-SE WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NEW 12Z GFS RUN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
STILL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SAME AREA WHERE
THE DYING MCS LAID OUT A BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING EAST
DURING THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THIS
AREA. GFS GRIDDED POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EXIT TO THE
EAST UNDER LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE ENTRENCHED RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT FORECAST
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL IN TURN PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE ACROSS
AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 - 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 74 96 74 / 20 10 - 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 93 72 / 20 - - 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 96 75 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 95 73 / 20 10 - 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / 10 - 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 73 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 95 76 96 76 / 30 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - - 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 92 73 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190356
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE. WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET THE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS FOR TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 10 KT AROUND
NOON. OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS MCV IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE WILL LINGER LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN THINNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT MUCH
OF THE CWA TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT SYSTEM TONIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE HEADED OUR WAY. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD TAKE ANY UPSTREAM
SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA...IF A SYSTEM CAN FORM. FOR THIS REASONING
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS
DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL SLOW THE
WARM UP OF MAX TEMPS
00004000
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BACK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM THURSDAY ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL INCH UPWARD A
LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE
LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 93 74 95 75 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 72 94 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 69 91 70 92 72 / 20 20 10 5 0
DENTON, TX 70 91 71 93 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 69 90 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 5 0
DALLAS, TX 75 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 72 92 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 73 94 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 71 94 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 93 72 94 72 / 10 20 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/69
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190301
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FINALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
ONLY ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED TO NEAR KSGR AND ESE OF HOUSTON WHERE
FLS REMAINS IN EFFECT. DID HAVE SOME GOOD RAIN TOTALS WITH A
COUPLE OF THE HCFCD GAGES SHOWING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS.
STORM ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF KSGR SHOWING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FAIRLY ISOLATED STORM. KEPT SOME 30/40 POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
AND THEN 20 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE
AS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. TOMORROW THINK POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPDATED FORECAST
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION
AVIATION...
TSRA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERN SITES
HAVE CLEARED OUT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
METRO AREA TAF SITES. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS IT LIES BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND
SEABREEZE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS INLAND TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 30 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190253 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...KEEPING HIGHER FIRST TERM POPS IN
THE NORTH...AND LOWERING SAME SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AT AMARILLO.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE TROF POISED TO
HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL NOT ELIMINATE POPS ENTIRELY. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KDHT AND KGUY 02-05Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS HIGHER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 05Z AT KAMA...AND
WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION 05-09Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT
IMPACT HERE AND THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. THE NEXT CONCERN IS LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY
WHERE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST GIVEN GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND
WINDS STAYING MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY CIGS ATTM...ALTHOUGH THEY CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT
ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE MOSTLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
POSSIBLY DUE TO A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CUMULUS HAS LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT
AND THINK THAT THE CAP WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS IN THE PANHANDLES UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION FINALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SO
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCLUDE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE TWO
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LIFT NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COULD HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTION BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. STILL...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
WARRANT 20 POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST
A FEW FEATURES...INCLUDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TOMORROW...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS...COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS
AND GREEN UP.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/03
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190248 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...REMOVED THUNDER...AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE RAIN ALL
TOGETHER (EXCEPT FOR GULFMEX)...CONSIDERING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO AREA AND IMPACTS OF DISTURBANCE
EXITING. HOWEVER...HAVE SEEN A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) FROM
TIME TO TIME (OUT OF AREA THOUGH) SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS FINE. WILL KEEP
MORNING RAIN (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) IN FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER TO KEEP IT OR NOT.
NO OTHER REAL CHANGES NEEDED...SO DID NOT MESS WITH TOO MUCH AS
EVEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PANNING OUT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. THINKING A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
SKY CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TEMPORARILY MVFR
CONDITION FOR ANY SITE...BUT THE CHANCE SEEMS LOW CONSIDERING WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE WIND FORECAST FOR LRD SITE. UNSURE IF
SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NON-GUSTY
SOLUTION...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND OVERNIGHT IF SEA BREEZE
APPROACHES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190239
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
939 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE POPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS. ALSO...CONVECTION
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT BELIEVE
THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...SO I
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AVIATION...
MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST...THEY COULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW. THUS...I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL FOR TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...THE NAM DEVELOPS A
MINOR SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEN...THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES IT SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUS...I DECIDED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL BEGINNING AT 18Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT OR
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW.
HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FORECAST THIS
EVENING...AND IN BIG COUNTRY MAINLY LATE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY OTHERWISE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...AS A CAP HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WHERE A DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BREAK THE CAP. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...IF STORMS INITIATING IN THE PANHANDLE
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SB CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO COULD SEE A STRONG OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...IF
THEY DEVELOP. CAPES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG COUNTRY
INCREASE TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT THEY
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING AN INCREASING CAP.
04
LONG TERM...
HOT AND DRY...DRY AND HOT. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE
FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE CALENDAR AS A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
SETUP IS IN ORDER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. THIS MEANS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
DURING THIS TIME. THE SUBSIDENT REGIME IS READILY APPARENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THIS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS WEST CENTRAL TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACTING AS A
STRONG CAP WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE LOOKS
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE
PRESENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AND THROUGHOUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATION
GREENUP...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY HOT THIS
WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES OF 5 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 95 72 94 74 / 10 20 5 0 0
SAN ANGELO 71 97 72 96 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
JUNCTION 70 94 71 93 72 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS
000
00004000
FXUS64 KMAF 190222 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
922 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
DROPPING RAIN CHANCES NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. LEAVING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN DAVIS MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT QUITE ENTERING NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
PRESENT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SKIRT NORTH OF FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WOULD BE
UNLIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS LAST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE DONE IN DAVIS MOUNTAIN AND MARFA
PLATEAU AREAS AS A FEW CELLS HAVE COME AND GONE IN THE LAST HOUR...
SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA FOR THE
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO POP UP ACROSS THAT AREA SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 72 98 72 95 / 10 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 72 97 73 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 71 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 76 97 75 96 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 99 73 96 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 70 94 69 94 / 10 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 69 97 69 96 / 10 10 10 20
MARFA TX 61 92 61 92 / 30 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 98 74 97 / 10 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 74 99 75 97 / 10 0 10 10
WINK TX 74 101 73 100 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190201
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. CIN IS ON THE RISE
DUE TO WARMING AT THE MID LEVELS FORMING A PRETTY STOUT CAP...WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE AMA 00Z SOUNDING...AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
COMING TO AN END. THE BEST CHANCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST KS.
THESE STORMS HOWEVER HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 94 64 94 64 / 40 20 20 20 20
TULIA 65 93 68 95 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 93 69 95 69 / 30 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 67 95 71 96 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 95 71 96 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 93 70 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 10
SPUR 69 94 70 97 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 72 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190201 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE
WEST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LOWER POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND I-35 CORRIDOR AND SHOW LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH S-SE
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCT TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING WED AFTERNOON. S-SE WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NEW 12Z GFS RUN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
STILL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SAME AREA WHERE
THE DYING MCS LAID OUT A BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING EAST
DURING THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THIS
AREA. GFS GRIDDED POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EXIT TO THE
EAST UNDER LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE ENTRENCHED RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT FORECAST
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL IN TURN PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE ACROSS
AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 - 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 74 96 74 / 20 10 - 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 93 72 / 20 - - 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 96 75 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 95 73 / 20 10 - 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / 10 - 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 73 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 95 76 96 76 / 30 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - - 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 92 73 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KSJT 182358
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST...THEY COULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW. THUS...I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL FOR TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...THE NAM DEVELOPS A
MINOR SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEN...THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES IT SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUS...I DECIDED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL BEGINNING AT 18Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT OR
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW.
HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FORECAST THIS
EVENING...AND IN BIG COUNTRY MAINLY LATE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY OTHERWISE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...AS A CAP HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WHERE A DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BREAK THE CAP. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...IF STORMS INITIATING IN THE PANHANDLE
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SB CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO COULD SEE A STRONG OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...IF
THEY DEVELOP. CAPES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG COUNTRY
INCREASE TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT THEY
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING AN INCREASING CAP.
04
LONG TERM...
HOT AND DRY...DRY AND HOT. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE
FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE CALENDAR AS A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
SETUP IS IN ORDER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. THIS MEANS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
DURING THIS TIME. THE SUBSIDENT REGIME IS READILY APPARENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THIS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS WEST CENTRAL TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACTING AS A
STRONG CAP WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE LOOKS
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE
PRESENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AND THROUGHOUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATION
GREENUP...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY HOT THIS
WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES OF 5 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 95 72 94 74 / 20 20 5 0 0
SAN ANGELO 71 97 72 96 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
JUNCTION 70 94 71 93 72 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HUBER/04/JOHNSON
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182344
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KDHT AND KGUY 02-05Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS HIGHER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 05Z AT KAMA...AND
WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION 05-09Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT
IMPACT HERE AND THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. THE NEXT CONCERN IS LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY
WHERE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST GIVEN GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND
WINDS STAYING MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY CIGS ATTM...ALTHOUGH THEY CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT
ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE MOSTLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
POSSIBLY DUE TO A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THIS MORNING.
HOW
00004000
EVER...THE CUMULUS HAS LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT
AND THINK THAT THE CAP WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS IN THE PANHANDLES UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION FINALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SO
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCLUDE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE TWO
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LIFT NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COULD HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTION BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. STILL...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
WARRANT 20 POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST
A FEW FEATURES...INCLUDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TOMORROW...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS...COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS
AND GREEN UP.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/03
000
FXUS64 KHGX 182341
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
TSRA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERN SITES
HAVE CLEARED OUT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
METRO AREA TAF SITES. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS IT LIES BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND
SEABREEZE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS INLAND TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 96 75 / 30 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 40 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 90 81 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182331
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. THINKING A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
SKY CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TEMPORARILY MVFR
CONDITION FOR ANY SITE...BUT THE CHANCE SEEMS LOW CONSIDERING WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE WIND FORECAST FOR LRD SITE. UNSURE IF
SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NON-GUSTY
SOLUTION...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND OVERNIGHT IF SEA BREEZE
APPROACHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KEWX 182330
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH S-SE
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCT TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING WED AFTERNOON. S-SE WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NEW 12Z GFS RUN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
STILL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SAME AREA WHERE
THE DYING MCS LAID OUT A BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING EAST
DURING THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THIS
AREA. GFS GRIDDED POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EXIT TO THE
EAST UNDER LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE ENTRENCHED RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT FORECAST
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL IN TURN PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE ACROSS
AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 - 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 74 96 74 / 20 10 - 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 93 72 / 20 - - 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 96 75 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 95 73 / 20 10 - 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / 10 - 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 73 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 95 76 96 76 / 30 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - - 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 92 73 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KLUB 182326
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 94 64 94 64 / 50 20 20 20 20
TULIA 65 93 68 95 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 93 69 95 69 / 40 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 67 95 71 96 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 95 71 96 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 97 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 93 70 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 10
SPUR 69 94 70 97 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 72 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31/51
000
FXUS64 KFWD 182310
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA
AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND A MCV OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OR SOUTH OF TAF SITES...WITH
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANT
SURFACE FRONT DISSOCIATES AND RETURN FLOW CREEPS BACK INTO THE
AREA.
FARTHER WEST...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WOULD LIKELY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKE THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THIS
ACTIVITY FROM REACHING AREA TERMINALS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS MCV IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE WILL LINGER LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN THINNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT MUCH
OF THE CWA TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT SYSTEM TONIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE HEADED OUR WAY. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD TAKE ANY UPSTREAM
SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA...IF A SYSTEM CAN FORM. FOR THIS REASONING
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS
DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL SLOW THE
WARM UP OF MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BACK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM THURSDAY ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL INCH UPWARD A
LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE
LOW
00004000
S REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 93 74 95 75 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 72 94 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 69 91 70 92 72 / 20 20 10 5 0
DENTON, TX 70 91 71 93 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 69 90 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 5 0
DALLAS, TX 75 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 72 92 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 73 94 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 71 94 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 93 72 94 72 / 10 20 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/69
000
FXUS64 KBRO 182307 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
607 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO DEVELOP WITH
AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 77 AND 281 BEING THE MOST AFFECTED. VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO SATURATED A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
DEVELOPING A THIN LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 15-25K FEET. DRIER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX THROUGH THIS LAYER WITH FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD STEADILY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD MAINTAINING A PRETTY DRY ATMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS BRING A VORT LOBE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE TX COASTLINE TOMORROW. NORMALLY THIS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE CONV TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABSENT OVER THE REGION. WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LEFT OF T.D.
TWO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE RGV AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
POOLED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX AWAY FROM TX. SO WILL GO NIL POPS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH FAIRLY SPARSE CLD COVER EXPECTED.
THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOW PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS HERE. THE NAM AND
ECMWF HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE GFS FOR TOMORROWS HIGH. THE NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND WILL GO CLOSER
TO THIS OVERALL TREND VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS HIGH TEMPS FOR
WED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL GO WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN THAT THE SEABREEZE SPURS SOME PRECIPITATION STARTING
SUNDAY. MODELS TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL DRAW FURTHER
NORTH...WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FINALLY GO UNDERNEATH IT
INTO TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SETUP HAS BEEN
SHOWN DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEABREEZE
FORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE US77 AND US281 CORRIDORS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE S-SE
FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW
FOR THE WINDS TO PUSH UP INTO SCEC TERRITORY BRIEFLY OVER THE
SHORT TERM. THE T.D. TWO OR THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
NHC DOES EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN A T.D. AS IT LIMPS ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THIS GENERAL LACK OF ORGANIZATION
EXPECTED THE OVERALL SWELL IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL OR NON-EXISTENT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WILL KEEP THE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN MARINE THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHER LONG-PERIOD
SWELLS EMANATING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THESE WILL FADE OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM
68...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KMAF 182257
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS. A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KMAF...BUT NO CEILING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ARE
POSSIBLE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GENERALLY 5 TO
15 OVERNIGHT AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THANKS TO
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WE COULD
GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THINK THE ATMOSPHERE MAY A LITTLE WORKED
OVER FROM YESTERDAY SO CHANCES ARE SMALL. THINK THE BEST CHANCE IS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TOMORROW THEN TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MEXICO BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES COINCIDING WITH A MID LEVEL
THETA E AXIS AND A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE PECOS AND RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182052 CCA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BIT
BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY EAST OF EL PASO WILL LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY
THROUGH MOST OT THE WEEKEND MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
BORDERLAND...BRINGING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE SO CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. YESTERDAY SAW MODERATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE EARLY CONVECTION. TODAY WE HAVE AN AIRMASS
MODIFIED BY LAST NIGHT`S OUTFLOWS TO THE EAST...INTO A MOIST BUT
RATHER COOL AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PLUS TODAY`S LOOK AT THE WV
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. CAN`T SEE ANY OTHER LITTLE DISTURBANCES
CLOSER TO US. MIXING PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS WOULD INDICATE
BUT DRIER AND S/SW WINDS HAVE MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS DEMING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO ABOUT EL PASO. WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS EAST OF EL PASO THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MOISTER AIRMASS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DRIER AIRMASS FROM ABOUT EL PASO WEST...AND BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED
SHORT WAVES NOT IN THE MODELS...POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED AGAIN TO
AREAS EAST OF EL PASO.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING AS UPPER HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN SOME GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SPREAD POPS BACK
TO ALL AREAS. GFS SHOWING A NEW TREND OF HIGHER QPFS ON THE EAST SO
DID TAILOR SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THESE DAYS AS TRANSITION
DAYS BACK TO A DRIER PATTERN. LATEST GFS SHOWS MOISTURE PERSISTING
LONGER INTO THIS PERIOD...THOUGH BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH HAS DRIFTED
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. POPS WILL SLOWLY TAPER TO MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...BOTH ECMWF/GFS PUSH UPPER HIGH NORTH OVER
COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AND ANCHOR IT THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL
MOSTLY DRY BUT WITH THIS PATTERN...THE MONSOON FLOW MAY BEGINNING TO
SHOW ITSELF. ATLANTIC BASIN HIGH WITH WESTWARD RIDGE NORTH OF OUR
CWA WILL OPEN UP THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A STEADIER MOISTURE SUPPLY.
SOMETHING TO HOPE FOR.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...EASTERN TULAROSA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY THROUGH
03Z. ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WINDS VRB30G45KT WITH LOWLAND BLDU. THE
NIGHT TIME SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...RECEIVED AN EXTRA PUSH WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH OUTFLOWS
FROM STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE TRANS PECOS AREA. THUS EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN FROM 120-150/10-15G20KT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS 170-220/10-15G20KT WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. WINDS 220-240/15-20G25KT ARE EXPECTED AFT 17Z ALL AREAS
WEDNESDAY. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-080 ALG AND EAST IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF AREA MOUNTAINS AFT 15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUSTAINED MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING FROM NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE TRANS PECOS AREA LAST
EVENING...WILL SUSTAIN SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. WEST OF THE DIVIDE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN
FOR ALL AREAS STARTING ROUGHLY MID DAY. GUSTS MAY REACH INTO THE
LOW 30 MPH RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH FAVORED EXPOSURE. FOR
STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER HUDSPETH
AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
THROUGH THE WEEK...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF US...WILL SLOWLY RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CIRCULATION AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY...TO ADVECT MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY FOR THE GILA
REGION AND SACS STARTING THURSDAY AS A RESULT. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOWLAND MIN RH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...TO NEAR 20% EAST. LOWER TEENS TO 20% ARE IN STORE
FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. VALUES CLIMB ROUGHLY ANOTHER 5-12% ALL AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER 3-5% FRIDAY
HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 5-6 WEDNESDAY...WITH 6 EXPECTED FOR
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE 5. VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 4-5 THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 102 78 100 77 / 10 0 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 71 100 73 97 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 71 101 73 99 71 / 10 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 101 71 98 69 / 10 0 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 50 79 51 76 49 / 20 10 10 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 101 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 94 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
DEMING 67 101 69 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 67 100 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 102 80 99 78 / 10 10 0 10 20
DELL CITY 66 100 68 97 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 76 105 78 104 77 / 10 10 20 10 20
LOMA LINDA 65 95 65 91 63 / 10 10 10 10 20
FABENS 74 103 76 102 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 73 100 75 99 73 / 10 10 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 100 74 97 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 64 100 66 98 64 / 10 0 0 10 10
HATCH 70 97 72 95 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 71 101 74 99 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 69 101 72 99 70 / 10 0 0 10 20
MAYHILL 57 86 58 84 56 / 20 10 20 20 30
MESCALERO 53 88 55 87 54 / 20 10 10 20 20
TIMBERON 54 85 55 83 53 / 20 10 10 20 20
WINSTON 58 92 58 89 56 / 0 0 0 10 20
HILLSBORO 66 95 66 92 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 99 70 97 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 60 92 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 64 96 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 56 97 64 97 53 / 0 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 50 97 51 95 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 65 95 65 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 68 101 69 98 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 66 101 68 99 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 102 70 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 63 97 65 93 60 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/TRIPOLI
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182046
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WIT
00004000
H UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182043
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BIT
BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY EAST OF EL PASO WILL LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY
THROUGH MOST OT THE WEEKEND MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
BORDERLAND...BRINGING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE SO CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. YESTERDAY SAW MODERATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND A SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE EARLY CONVECTION. TODAY WE HAVE AN AIRMASS
MODIFIED BY LAST NIGHT`S OUTFLOWS TO THE EAST...INTO A MOIST BUT
RATHER COOL AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PLUS TODAY`S LOOK AT THE WV
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. CAN`T SEE ANY OTHER LITTLE DISTURBANCES
CLOSER TO US. MIXING PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS WOULD INDICATE
BUT DRIER AND S/SW WINDS HAVE MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS DEMING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO ABOUT EL PASO. WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS EAST OF EL PASO THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE
MOISTER AIRMASS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DRIER AIRMASS FROM ABOUT EL PASO WEST...AND BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED
SHORT WAVES NOT IN THE MODELS...POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED AGAIN TO
AREAS EAST OF EL PASO.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING AS UPPER HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ADVECT IN SOME GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SPREAD POPS BACK
TO ALL AREAS. GFS SHOWING A NEW TREND OF HIGHER QPFS ON THE EAST SO
DID TAILOR SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THESE DAYS AS TRANSITION
DAYS BACK TO A DRIER PATTERN. LATEST GFS SHOWS MOISTURE PERSISTING
LONGER INTO THIS PERIOD...THOUGH BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH HAS DRIFTED
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. POPS WILL SLOWLY TAPER TO MAINLY MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...BOTH ECMWF/GFS PUSH UPPER HIGH NORTH OVER
COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AND ANCHOR IT THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL
MOSTLY DRY BUT WITH THIS PATTERN...THE MONSOON FLOW MAY BEGINNING TO
SHOW ITSELF. ATLANTIC BASIN HIGH WITH WESTWARD RIDGE NORTH OF OUR
CWA WILL OPEN UP THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A STEADIER MOISTURE SUPPLY.
SOMETHING TO HOPE FOR.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR FLYING
AREA FROM THE WEST...WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES TO THE EASTERN
TULAROSA BASIN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THIS AREA...FOR ISOLATED
-TSRAGS/WND 30G45KT/BLDU THROUGH 02Z. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONFINED CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN ISOLD
MOUNTAIN/LOWLAND TSRAGS AND SCT LOWLAND TSRAGS/WND G50KT/LOCAL BLDU
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH 02Z. LOOK FOR 250-270/10-15G20KTS
THROUGH 02Z WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND AGAIN ALL AREAS AFT
18Z TUESDAY. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-080 ALG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
AREA MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY...AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS
MOST OF THE REGION AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL CONFINE STORM
CHANCES TO MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME MONSOON DRIVEN MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER THURSDAY. FOR EARLY TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SILVER FIRE THROUGH
AND OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE TULAROSA BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...MONSOON DRIVEN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MIGRATING NORTHWARD OVER AREA...FOR A RETURN TO
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS.
FOR TUESDAY...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER LOWLAND MIN RH TO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE TULAROSA
BASIN...WEST TO THE AZ BORDER. GILA REGION WILL SEE MIN RH TO THE
LOW TEENS. EAST OF THE BASIN...MIN RH WILL FALL TO THE MIDDLE TEENS
WITH HIGH 20S TO 30 EXPECTED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO
AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MIN
RH WILL CLIMB 4-6 PERCENT ACROSS ALL AREAS IN GENERAL THURSDAY...AND
ROUGHLY ANOTHER 10 PERCENT FRIDAY.
THE DRYING TREND WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...WITH
LOWLAND READINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 100S
BY MID WEEK. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL RESULT IN HAINES INDICES
OF 6 FOR AREA MOUNTAINS...AND 4-5 FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. VALUES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 4-5 AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 102 78 100 77 / 10 0 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 71 100 73 97 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 71 101 73 99 71 / 10 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 101 71 98 69 / 10 0 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 50 79 51 76 49 / 20 10 10 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 101 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 94 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
DEMING 67 101 69 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 67 100 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 102 80 99 78 / 10 10 0 10 20
DELL CITY 66 100 68 97 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 76 105 78 104 77 / 10 10 20 10 20
LOMA LINDA 65 95 65 91 63 / 10 10 10 10 20
FABENS 74 103 76 102 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 73 100 75 99 73 / 10 10 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 100 74 97 72 / 10 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 64 100 66 98 64 / 10 0 0 10 10
HATCH 70 97 72 95 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 71 101 74 99 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 69 101 72 99 70 / 10 0 0 10 20
MAYHILL 57 86 58 84 56 / 20 10 20 20 30
MESCALERO 53 88 55 87 54 / 20 10 10 20 20
TIMBERON 54 85 55 83 53 / 20 10 10 20 20
WINSTON 58 92 58 89 56 / 0 0 0 10 20
HILLSBORO 66 95 66 92 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 99 70 97 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 60 92 60 91 58 / 0 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 64 96 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 56 97 64 97 53 / 0 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 50 97 51 95 47 / 0 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 65 95 65 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 68 101 69 98 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 66 101 68 99 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 102 70 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 63 97 65 93 60 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/TRIPOLI
000
FXUS64 KLUB 182041
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 94 64 94 64 / 50 20 20 20 20
TULIA 65 93 68 95 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 93 69 95 69 / 40 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 67 95 71 96 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 95 71 96 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 97 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 93 70 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 10
SPUR 69 94 70 97 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 72 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
000
FXUS64 KSJT 182027
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FORECAST THIS
EVENING...AND IN BIG COUNTRY MAINLY LATE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY OTHERWISE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...AS A CAP HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WHERE A DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BREAK THE CAP. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...IF STORMS INITIATING IN THE PANHANDLE
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SB CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO COULD SEE A STRONG OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...IF
THEY DEVELOP. CAPES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG COUNTRY
INCREASE TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT THEY
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING AN INCREASING CAP.
04
.LONG TERM...
HOT AND DRY...DRY AND HOT. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE
FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE CALENDAR AS A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
SETUP IS IN ORDER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. THIS MEANS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
DURING THIS TIME. THE SUBSIDENT REGIME IS READILY APPARENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THIS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS WEST CENTRAL TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACTING AS A
STRONG CAP WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE LOOKS
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE
PRESENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AND THROUGHOUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATION
GREENUP...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY HOT THIS
WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES OF 5 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 95 72 94 74 / 20 20 5 0 0
SAN ANGELO 71 97 72 96 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
JUNCTION 70 94 71 93 72 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/25
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182020
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS STILL
00004000
UNCERTAIN.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE MOSTLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
POSSIBLY DUE TO A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CUMULUS HAS LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT
AND THINK THAT THE CAP WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS IN THE PANHANDLES UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION FINALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SO
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCLUDE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE TWO
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LIFT NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COULD HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTION BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. STILL...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
WARRANT 20 POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST
A FEW FEATURES...INCLUDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TOMORROW...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS...COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS
AND GREEN UP.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 64 92 67 95 67 / 40 10 5 20 10
BEAVER OK 66 95 66 101 69 / 40 20 10 20 10
BOISE CITY OK 61 95 63 98 64 / 50 10 5 5 20
BORGER TX 66 95 72 98 71 / 40 10 5 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 65 97 68 99 69 / 50 10 5 20 20
CANYON TX 64 93 67 95 67 / 40 10 5 20 10
CLARENDON TX 65 94 69 96 69 / 30 10 5 20 5
DALHART TX 61 95 63 98 64 / 50 10 5 10 20
GUYMON OK 62 93 66 99 68 / 50 10 5 20 10
HEREFORD TX 63 93 66 94 66 / 40 5 5 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 67 91 69 97 71 / 40 20 10 20 10
PAMPA TX 64 93 68 94 67 / 40 10 5 20 10
SHAMROCK TX 67 91 70 96 70 / 30 20 5 20 5
WELLINGTON TX 68 93 71 98 71 / 30 20 5 20 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/16
000
FXUS64 KFWD 182008
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS MCV IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE WILL LINGER LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN THINNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT MUCH
OF THE CWA TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT SYSTEM TONIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE HEADED OUR WAY. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD TAKE ANY UPSTREAM
SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA...IF A SYSTEM CAN FORM. FOR THIS REASONING
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS
DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL SLOW THE
WARM UP OF MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BACK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM THURSDAY ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL INCH UPWARD A
LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE
LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 93 74 95 75 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 72 94 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 69 91 70 92 72 / 20 20 10 5 0
DENTON, TX 70 91 71 93 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 69 90 73 93 73 / 10 20 10 5 0
DALLAS, TX 75 94 76 95 77 / 10 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 72 92 74 94 74 / 10 20 10 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 73 94 74 95 74 / 10 20 10 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 71 94 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 93 72 94 72 / 10 20 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KHGX 182003
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD HAPPEN TOO WHERE ANY BRIEF CELL TRAINING SETS UP (SOME AREA
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES). EXPECT ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS AREA.
HOWEVER...THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FOUND.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SHOULD GET INTO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS SUPPORT GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA. 42
&&
.MARINE...
A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER THE GULF AT NIGHT THAT RELAX A BIT DURING THE DAY
AND LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT OVER THE BAYS INCREASING A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
HI-RES AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN SO WILL TEMPO ALL INLAND SITES WITH PCPN FOR
LATE THIS AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES INCREASING TO 2.00
INCHES AND K INDEX VALUES NEAR 40. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND THIS THRESHOLD HAS BEEN BREACHED SO EXPECT PCPN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN
INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS BECOME
GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. LEANED TOWARD A RAP/HRR
BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AND THE NAM/GFS LONG TERM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 96 75 / 30 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 40 30 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 90 81 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KEWX 182002
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NEW 12Z GFS RUN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
STILL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SAME AREA WHERE
THE DYING MCS LAID OUT A BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING EAST
DURING THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THIS
AREA. GFS GRIDDED POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EXIT TO THE
EAST UNDER LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE ENTRENCHED RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT FORECAST
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL IN TURN PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE ACROSS
AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 - 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 95 74 96 74 / 20 10 - 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 93 72 / 20 - - 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 75 96 75 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 95 73 / 20 10 - 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / 10 - 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 73 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 95 76 96 76 / 30 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - - 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 92 73 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181955
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD STEADILY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD MAINTAINING A PRETTY DRY ATMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS BRING A VORT LOBE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE TX COASTLINE TOMORROW. NORMALLY THIS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE CONV TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABSENT OVER THE REGION. WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LEFT OF T.D.
TWO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE RGV AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
POOLED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX AWAY FROM TX. SO WILL GO NIL POPS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH FAIRLY SPARSE CLD COVER EXPECTED.
THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOW PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS HERE. THE NAM AND
ECMWF HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE GFS FOR TOMORROWS HIGH. THE NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND WILL GO CLOSER
TO THIS OVERALL TREND VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS HIGH TEMPS FOR
WED.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL GO WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN THAT THE SEABREEZE SPURS SOME PRECIPITATION STARTING
SUNDAY. MODELS TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL DRAW FURTHER
NORTH...WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FINALLY GO UNDERNEATH IT
INTO TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SETUP HAS BEEN
SHOWN DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEABREEZE
FORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE US77 AND US281 CORRIDORS.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE S-SE
FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW
FOR THE WINDS TO PUSH UP INTO SCEC TERRITORY BRIEFLY OVER THE
SHORT TERM. THE T.D. TWO OR THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
NHC DOES EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN A T.D. AS IT LIMPS ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THIS GENERAL LACK OF ORGANIZATION
EXPECTED THE OVERALL SWELL IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL OR NON-EXISTENT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WILL KEEP THE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN MARINE THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHER LONG-PERIOD
SWELLS EMANATING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THESE WILL FADE OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 79 92 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 78 95 78 96 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 91 82 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
60/64
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181954
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THANKS TO
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WE COULD
GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THINK THE ATMOSPHERE MAY A LITTLE WORKED
OVER FROM YESTERDAY SO CHANCES ARE SMALL. THINK THE BEST CHANCE IS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TOMORROW THEN TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MEXICO BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES COINCIDING WITH A MID LEVEL
THETA E AXIS AND A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE PECOS AND RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO
00002FDC
THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 72 98 72 95 / 20 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 72 97 73 97 / 20 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 71 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 76 97 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 99 73 96 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 70 94 69 94 / 10 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 69 97 69 96 / 20 10 10 20
MARFA TX 61 92 61 92 / 30 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 98 74 97 / 10 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 74 99 75 97 / 10 0 10 10
WINK TX 74 101 73 100 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/49
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181826 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
126 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATED A PRETTY PARCHED
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE EVIDENT FROM 950 TO 1000 MB. ACCORDINGLY THE AFTERNOON
HEATING HAS PRODUCED ONLY SOME PATCHY SC AROUND THE LOWER RGV
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPOROTUNITY FOR SOME LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLD COVER AS SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER FORMS FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z NEAR 975 MB. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
NOT SHOW THIS SATURATED LAYER WITH THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT GAP
WIDENING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE NAM
GUIDANCE MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW FOR ALL
OF THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID
DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND REMAIN BREEZE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER TEXAS REGION
UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 1500 FT CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS ANS SE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MIGRATE EAST WEAKENING THE SFC GRADIENT ALONG SOUTH TEXAS
COAST TODAY. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS BREEZE COMPARED TO
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE
100S EAST OF HWY 281. HUMIDITY WILL RANGED BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE LOW 30S FROM RIO GRANDE CITY
NORTH TO ZAPATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL HOTTER RANGING FROM
105 TO 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS...THE CAP
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IN THE EVENING...THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE IN THE EVENING AS
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS LIMITING THE LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AS
QUICKLY. EXPECT THE SE WINDS TO DECOUPLE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE 80S ALONG THE COAST. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL EXCELLENT WITH VALUES NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CWA. RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH ITS AXIS ENTERING THE
TEXAS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN KEEPING
THE RGV UNDER BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TREND ONE TO TWO DEGREES HIGHER INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE DIFFICULT EVERY DAY TO TALK ABOUT NOTHING. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
DURING THE PERIOD...AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
ALL MAY NOT BE LOST...AS AT LEAST THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A 500 MB
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND
RETROGRADES THAT FEATURE TOWARDS THE BRO CWFA DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. QUITE POSSIBLY COULD HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 500 MB LOW AND
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...BUT SINCE INHERITED A DRY FORECAST...WILL
MAINTAIN IT FOR NOW...AND REVISIT THE ISSUE IN 24 HOURS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME SEAS ARE NEAR 5 FEET
OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS PROVIDING ROUGH
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCEC
CONDITIONS OVER THE BAY TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE GULF. THE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZE A LITTLE
LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT PROVIDING SCEC CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR A
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE SE WINDS TO DECOUPLE BY MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST WITH SE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING 3 TO 5 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MODERATE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AN INCREASE IN SEAS
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE BROAD WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT THAT TIME CAUSES SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST TO AFFECT THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION POSSIBLE FOR A
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SWELL DISSIPATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 79 92 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 79 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 92 80 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...60
LONGER TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181739
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
STORM COMPLEX TO THE NORTH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WORK EAST. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP OVER KAUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DYING MCS WILL KEEP THUNDER FROM FORMING AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TS AT AUS. WILL WATCH RADAR
TRENDS TO SEE IF ANYTHING STARTS TO POP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON IF
THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS IN TIME. MVFR AT SAT AND SSF IS DONE AND
WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY CAME
THROUGH AND WEAKENED THE GRADIENT SO LITTLE WIND OUT THERE NOW. IN
A FEW HOURS EXPECT THE S-SE WINDS TO RETURN. AM ADVERTISING MVFR
AT AUS/SAT/SSF AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BURNING OFF BY 15Z.
WILL KEEP DRT UNDER VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. DID INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS AT DRT FOR WED BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
CIGS AT THE I35 TERMINALS ARE MVFR EXCEPT SAT WHICH HAS GONE BACK
TO VFR. THINK THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY SO HAVE INCLUDED IT AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF. AN AREA OF TSRA IS APPROACHING AUS AND
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS UNTIL 14Z. MAY BE GUSTY WINDS
WITH STORMS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING. MAY BE SOME
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE IS AT AUS AND HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP. LESS OF A CHANCE IN SAN ANTONIO...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION. DRT WILL BE VFR AND RAIN FREE FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG A ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO
TO WACO LINE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT PASSES. A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE...SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM THIS MORNING`S
CONVECTION AND A MOIST AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
TEXAS ENDING RAIN CHANCES...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SEABREEZE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS MID WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WITH ONLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SEABREEZE ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 76 99 77 99 / 30 10 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 75 98 75 98 / 30 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 97 75 98 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 95 74 96 / 30 20 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 76 95 76 96 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 96 75 98 / 30 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 75 97 / 10 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 97 75 97 / 30 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 96 76 97 76 97 / 30 20 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 96 76 96 / 20 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 96 75 98 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181734
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY NOW IN SLOW
RECOVERY. MAIN SURFACE FORCING HAS PUSHED TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FROM THERE...THOUGH BECOMING A BIT
DIFFUSE AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE ON THE
CAP-ROCK. BELIEVE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY WILL SHOW WITH
FORCING NEAR THE STATE LINE POTENTIALLY VALID FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 650-600 MB
LAYER SHOULD COUNTER THAT TO SOME EXTENT. LATER IN THE EVENING THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE THUNDER
CHANCES SPREAD IN FROM DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH AS A WEAK IMPULSE GLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. WE TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HOLDING ON TO PREVIOUS CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY SEVERE NEAR THE STATE LINE LATER TODAY THOUGH
CONDITIONAL ON THE CAP BREAKING...THEN SPREADING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
RETAINED LOW CHANCE THUNDER FOR TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING
UNTIL A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
00004000
GRADUALLY
REDEVELOPS. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WEST OF KLBB UNLIKELY
TO AFFECT THAT TERMINAL IN THE NEAR TERM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TS
POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ERN NM AND AREAS WEST/NW OF KLBB THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. FOR NOW PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS LOOKS
GOOD WITH LATER SHIFTS ABLE TO FINE TUNE AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 07Z SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM LAS
VEGAS TO CLOVIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTINUE TO OR EVEN A
BIT AFTER 12Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT DRIVING THEM SEWD INTO 20 TO
30 KT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD ABATE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT WORTH KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFT 12Z.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MODEL NOT INSPIRING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH THE SRN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM SOCAL TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL SELY MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. SPECIFICS OF THAT LATTER POINT A BIT FUZZY GIVEN
THAT APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVER
SELY FLOW ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES A
PREFERENCE TO THE GFS THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ERN
NM AND POSSIBLY WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF PROGGED
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35-40 KTS AND HODOGRAPHS SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN
LOWEST 3 KM SUGGEST A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE EVENT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR MCS...ALTHOUGH THAT
LATTER PART IS NOT AS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS ATTM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES PARTICULARLY WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE
WRF-NAM...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 PCT
ATTM.
FCST HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN PARTICULAR
WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST RELATIVELY COOL MOS
GUIDANCE A GOOD STARTING POINT. GOING BACK TO THE PRECIP DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THESE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CAP TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ANOTHER REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ATTM.
LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TOMORROW...AS UA RIDGING PLAGUES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLIM AS A
SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE /CENTERED CLOSE BY/ RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW. INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 90S /NOT OVERLY HOT/ AND STORMS BECOMING
HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WILL ENCOURAGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE SWRN CONUS...TO ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UA RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OK...WHILST A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM TAKING SHAPE EACH AFTN-NIGHT
WED-SUN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SFC
CONFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE SF TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME. WITH
ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW...STORMS COULD CLIP THE FAR WRN AND NWRN
ZONES. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ITS TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN ABOUT ITS EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. WILL HOLD ON TO 10-13
PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...THUS MAINTAINING SILENT WX
GRIDS ATTM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 93 63 94 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
TULIA 65 91 66 95 67 / 40 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 92 66 95 68 / 40 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 95 68 96 69 / 30 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 94 68 96 69 / 30 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 70 97 68 97 69 / 20 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 70 96 67 97 69 / 30 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 68 93 69 98 72 / 30 10 10 10 10
SPUR 69 95 68 97 71 / 30 10 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 71 99 73 / 30 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181731
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS
MAINLY AROUND CNM BUT TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS. SE WINDS
MOSTLY 10-15 KTS WITH SFC TROF TO THE W.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU CENTRAL TX WITH MINOR
SHRTWV TROF QUICKLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. PRIMARY MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED E AND THIS FAR S ACROSS SE
NM/PB THE EML AROUND 7H HAS BEEN COOLED AND 7H-5H LR/S AREN/T AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY AND COOLER TEMPS EXTEND DOWN THE COLUMN INTO THE
SFC/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER TOO. RUC/NAM 7H-5H OMEGA SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE TRANS PECOS MTNS AND STEEPER LR/S THERE THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SLGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN
LIFTED N OUT OF THE AREA AND TEND TO AGREE. 12Z NAM12 IS STINGY WITH
PRECIP TODAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE POP/WX GRIDD TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE PB AND REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. UPDATES OUT SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181724
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE TAF PACKAGE WITH TEMPORARY LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW
CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE TERMINALS REMAINS LOW
HOWEVER WILL RETAIN VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES. THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE WINDOW REMAINS AFTER 00Z THROUGH 09Z. SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORM MOVE OVER A TERMINAL...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO LOWER. IF THIS OCCURS CATEGORIES COULD DROP AS LOW AS LIFR. WILL
ISSUE SHORT FUSED AMENDS AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS WHICH COULD DE-RAIL
THESE CLOUDS FROM FORMING. AS SUCH HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS LOWER THAN VFR BUT DID INSERT A LOWER SCT DECK
TO BEGIN A TREND OF LOWERING CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ SIMILAR WX SET UP TODAY WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATER
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHOWERS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THEY WILL STAY
WEST OF THE KAMA TERMINAL. LOW END VFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL THIN
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CU TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED VCTS IN AT THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS BY 00Z
AT KDHT...01Z AT KGUY...AND 05Z AT KAMA. FUTURE AMENDMENTS TO THIS
TIMING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WNW TO NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINS WED AND LASTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE WNW TO NW FLOW
ALOFT COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE MOST RECENT TSTM
COMPLEX...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...A FAST
MOVING MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF GRAZING THE REGION...AND
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...THE LEAST COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE DURG THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS... WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. USED
AREAL QUALIFIER DESCRIPTIVE WORDING FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS
FCST PCKG. SOME SVR THREAT PSBL LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
SATURATED SOILS.
SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR TUNES MUCH WITH
RESPECT TO INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING WED AND PERSISTING TO
SOME DEGREE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WED
THRU THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN...WHERE...OR EVEN IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURG
THIS TIME PERIOD SO HAVE MAINTAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS PCKG BY
CONTINUING TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME FROM WED
ONWARD THRU NEXT MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO ABV NORMAL VALUES
STARTING WED AND LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/16
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181719
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN KALI AND KCRP...AND WILL REMAIN MORE MODERATE AROUND KLRD
AND KVCT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND LATER AT KLRD /AOA 08Z/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 96 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 79 101 80 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 96 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 75 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 97 79 97 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181718
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HI-RES AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN SO WILL TEMPO ALL INLAND SITES WITH PCPN FOR
LATE THIS AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES INCREASING TO 2.00
INCHES AND K INDEX VALUES NEAR 40. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S AND THIS THRESHOLD HAS BEEN BREACHED SO EXPECT PCPN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN
INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS BECOME
GUSTY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. LEANED TOWARD A RAP/HRR
BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AND THE NAM/GFS LONG TERM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO MADISONVILLE TO
CROCKETT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS BOUNDARY HAS NOT STABILIZED THE AREA
ENOUGH AND SKIES CAN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE (EVERYTHING IS ALREADY OUT)...KEPT AREA POPS IN A 20%-40%
RANGE. UP NORTH AND NORTHWEST...LOWERED THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE IT APPEARS EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
W/NW. WHILE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDERS OF THE CWA...AM
CONCERNED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTN. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTN AS A
RESULT.
OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF A REPEAT FOR TOMORROW (BUT TO
A LESSER DEGREE) BEFORE THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TAKES BETTER HOLD AC-
ROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE A BIT
SHAKEN WITH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS OF A DOMINATING SUBSIDENT/RIDGEY
PATTERN SETTLING OVER THE AREA GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. AS SUCH A
LITTLE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A MORE REGULAR SUMMER TIME FCST OF
ISO/WIDELY SCT MAINLY DAYTIME PCPN STARTING OVER WEEKEND. 41
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS SLID A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST LEADING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME 5-15KNOT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEN SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT MORE AS TX UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SHOULD BECOME THE NORM BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TD
2 NEAR BELIZE HAS SLOWED AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY ISSUES FOR THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 75 95 75 96 / 30 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 94 75 95 / 40 40 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 90 80 90 / 30 30 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181654 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE /MCV...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ CURRENTLY
CENTERED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KDFW...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP A
TEMPO 5SM -SHRA IN AT KDAL THROUGH 19Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE EAST LATE
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY LATE EVENING.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS THIS MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE MCV NEARING GRANBURY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE WEAK FRONT IS HARD TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING DUE TO CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE...BUT IT SEE
00004000
MS TO RUN ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AT 9AM. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFT OVER THIS BOUNDARY WAS HELPING TO
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF
3 AM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
DECATUR TO CLEBURNE. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT...WERE BEING AIDED BY LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT REGION. ALL STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
OF DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS ALONG WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.
STORM CHANCES WILL END LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. ALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WESTERN ZONES. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 94 75 95 / 20 20 20 10 0
WACO, TX 93 71 93 73 93 / 30 30 10 10 0
PARIS, TX 89 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 30 10 5
DENTON, TX 90 70 93 72 94 / 20 20 20 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 71 93 / 20 20 30 10 5
DALLAS, TX 91 75 93 75 94 / 20 20 20 10 0
TERRELL, TX 89 72 92 72 93 / 30 20 20 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 90 72 92 73 92 / 30 30 20 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 93 72 95 / 30 30 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 69 93 69 95 / 20 20 10 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/75
000
FXUS64 KSJT 181650
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING... MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT
WAS WASHING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TOO REMOTE HOWEVER TO
INCLUDE ON THE SONORA AND JUNCTION TAF SITES. MAY SEE SOME MVFR
STRATUS APPROACH KJCT JUNCTION TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER AS CIGS
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND SHORT LIVED...WILL ONLY PUT IN A
SCATTERED LAYER.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
SPARSE AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 89 72 94 74 95 / 10 10 20 5 0
SAN ANGELO 89 72 94 74 95 / 10 10 5 0 0
JUNCTION 90 72 92 73 94 / 20 20 5 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181520
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO MADISONVILLE TO
CROCKETT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS BOUNDARY HAS NOT STABILIZED THE AREA
ENOUGH AND SKIES CAN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE (EVERYTHING IS ALREADY OUT)...KEPT AREA POPS IN A 20%-40%
RANGE. UP NORTH AND NORTHWEST...LOWERED THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE IT APPEARS EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA THAT WERE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA HAVE BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING
AND JUST HAD A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH KCLL TERMINAL. S/W
NEAR KSEP MOVING ESE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SHOWERS EAST.
THIS MORNINGS RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF OF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING MAINLY OVER THE CLL/UTS/CXO AREAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OF 88 DEGREES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE VCTS/VCSH TODAY THROUGH 00-03Z.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE KEY TO TIMING ARRIVAL AT AREA
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FOG CONCERNS IN THE VICINITY OF PRIOR RAINFALL
THANKS TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
W/NW. WHILE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDERS OF THE CWA...AM
CONCERNED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTN. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTN AS A
RESULT.
OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF A REPEAT FOR TOMORROW (BUT TO
A LESSER DEGREE) BEFORE THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TAKES BETTER HOLD AC-
ROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE A BIT
SHAKEN WITH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS OF A DOMINATING SUBSIDENT/RIDGEY
PATTERN SETTLING OVER THE AREA GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. AS SUCH A
LITTLE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A MORE REGULAR SUMMER TIME FCST OF
ISO/WIDELY SCT MAINLY DAYTIME PCPN STARTING OVER WEEKEND. 41
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS SLID A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST LEADING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME 5-15KNOT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEN SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT MORE AS TX UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SHOULD BECOME THE NORM BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TD
2 NEAR BELIZE HAS SLOWED AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY ISSUES FOR THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 75 95 75 96 / 30 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 75 94 75 95 / 40 40 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 90 80 90 / 30 30 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU CENTRAL TX WITH MINOR
SHRTWV TROF QUICKLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. PRIMARY MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED E AND THIS FAR S ACROSS SE
NM/PB THE EML AROUND 7H HAS BEEN COOLED AND 7H-5H LR/S AREN/T AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY AND COOLER TEMPS EXTEND DOWN THE COLUMN INTO THE
SFC/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER TOO. RUC/NAM 7H-5H OMEGA SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE TRANS PECOS MTNS AND STEEPER LR/S THERE THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SLGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN
LIFTED N OUT OF THE AREA AND TEND TO AGREE. 12Z NAM12 IS STINGY WITH
PRECIP TODAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE POP/WX GRIDD TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE PB AND REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. UPDATES OUT SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 71 96 71 / 30 30 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 89 73 95 74 / 30 30 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 95 70 101 70 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 73 96 76 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 71 99 72 / 20 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 95 67 94 70 / 20 20 30 30
HOBBS NM 92 67 96 69 / 20 20 10 10
MARFA TX 88 59 92 61 / 40 40 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 94 71 96 73 / 20 20 0 10
ODESSA TX 94 72 96 75 / 20 20 0 10
WINK TX 97 71 102 71 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181425 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
925 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS THIS MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE MCV NEARING GRANBURY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE WEAK FRONT IS HARD TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING DUE TO CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE...BUT IT SEEMS TO RUN ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF I-20 AT 9AM. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS AND GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AT WACO...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE WIND FIELDS HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED
DUE TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY SHOULD RECOVER BY MIDDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAVE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WACO
TAF. OTHERWISE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE
TODAY. DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFT OVER THIS BOUNDARY WAS HELPING TO
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF
3 AM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
DECATUR TO CLEBURNE. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT...WERE BEING AIDED BY LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT REGION. ALL STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
OF DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS ALONG WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.
STORM CHANCES WILL END LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. ALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WESTERN ZONES. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 94 75 95 / 20 20 20 10 0
WACO, TX 93 71 93 73 93 / 30 30 10 10 0
PARIS, TX 89 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 30 10 5
DENTON, TX 90 70 93 72 94 / 20 20 20 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 71 93 / 20 20 30 10 5
DALLAS, TX 91 75 93 75 94 / 20 20 20 10 0
TERRELL, TX 89 72 92 72 93 / 30 20 20 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 90 72 92 73 92 / 30 30 20 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 93 72 95 / 30 30 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 69 93 69 95 / 20 20 10 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181230
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
730 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
TSRA THAT WERE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA HAVE BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING
AND JUST HAD A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH KCLL TERMINAL. S/W
NEAR KSEP MOVING ESE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SHOWERS EAST.
THIS MORNINGS RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF OF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING MAINLY OVER THE CLL/UTS/CXO AREAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OF 88 DEGREES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE VCTS/VCSH TODAY THROUGH 00-03Z.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE KEY TO TIMING ARRIVAL AT AREA
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FOG CONCERNS IN THE VICINITY OF PRIOR RAINFALL
THANKS TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
W/NW. WHILE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDERS OF THE CWA...AM
CONCERNED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTN. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTN AS A
RESULT.
OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF A REPEAT FOR TOMORROW (BUT TO
A LESSER DEGREE) BEFORE THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TAKES BETTER HOLD AC-
ROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE A BIT
SHAKEN WITH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS OF A DOMINATING SUBSIDENT/RIDGEY
PATTERN SETTLING OVER THE AREA GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. AS SUCH A
LITTLE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A MORE REGULAR SUMMER TIME FCST OF
ISO/WIDELY SCT MAINLY DAYTIME PCPN STARTING OVER WEEKEND. 41
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS SLID A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST LEADING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME 5-15KNOT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEN SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT MORE AS TX UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SHOULD BECOME THE NORM BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TD
2 NEAR BELIZE HAS SLOWED AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY ISSUES FOR THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
00002827
45
AVIATION...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION KTPL AND NEARING THE
KRWV-KCLL-KDKR AREAS. IT HAS BEEN MOVING AT AROUND 25 KNOTS TO THE
ESE AND SHOULD NEAR KCLL AROUND 1215Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR THE CXO/UTS/CLL AREAS
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING SE KEEPING THE AREA ACTIVE. IAH SOUTHWARD IS MORE DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN IF WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL GET THIS SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...AT PRESENT THINK THAT BETTER WINDOW
FOR SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...STARTING 20-21Z AND
LINGERING FOR 3 OR 4 HOURS. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH VCTS AND
INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS 20-00Z AT IAH/HOU.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 75 95 75 96 / 40 20 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 94 75 95 / 30 20 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 90 80 90 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181156 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ SIMILAR WX SET UP TODAY WITH STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATER
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHOWERS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THEY WILL STAY
WEST OF THE KAMA TERMINAL. LOW END VFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL THIN
ALTHOUGH EXPECT CU TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED VCTS IN AT THE TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS BY 00Z
AT KDHT...01Z AT KGUY...AND 05Z AT KAMA. FUTURE AMENDMENTS TO THIS
TIMING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WNW TO NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BEGINS WED AND LASTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE WNW TO NW FLOW
ALOFT COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE MOST RECENT TSTM
COMPLEX...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...A FAST
MOVING MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF GRAZING THE REGION...AND
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...THE LEAST COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE DURG THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS... WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. USED
AREAL QUALIFIER DESCRIPTIVE WORDING FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS
FCST PCKG. SOME SVR THREAT PSBL LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
SATURATED SOILS.
SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR TUNES MUCH WITH
RESPECT TO INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING WED AND PERSISTING TO
SOME DEGREE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLD
TSTMS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WED
THRU THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN...WHERE...OR EVEN IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURG
THIS TIME PERIOD SO HAVE MAINTAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS PCKG BY
CONTINUING TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME FROM WED
ONWARD THRU NEXT MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO ABV NORMAL VALUES
STARTING WED AND LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181156 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS AND GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AT WACO...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE WIND FIELDS HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED
DUE TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY SHOULD RECOVER BY MIDDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAVE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WACO
TAF. OTHERWISE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY LATE
TODAY.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFT OVER THIS BOUNDARY WAS HELPING TO
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF
3 AM ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
DECATUR TO CLEBURNE. THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS SOUTH
OF THE COLD FRONT...WERE BEING AIDED BY LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT REGION. ALL STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK
OF DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS ALONG WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.
STORM CHANCES WILL END LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. ALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE WESTERN ZONES.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 74 94 75 95 / 30 20 20 10 0
WACO, TX 93 71 93 73 93 / 40 30 10 10 0
PARIS, TX 89 69 92 70 91 / 20 20 30 10 5
DENTON, TX 90 70 93 72 94 / 30 20 20 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 71 93 / 30 20 30 10 5
DALLAS, TX 91 75 93 75 94 / 30 20 20 10 0
TERRELL, TX 89 72 92 72 93 / 30 20 20 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 90 72 92 73 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 93 72 95 / 40 30 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 69 93 69 95 / 40 20 10 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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