0000A28F000
FXUS62 KILM 260732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 314 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER COOL EARLY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF
A CANADIAN AIR MASS RESTS ACROSS THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ADVANCING MOISTURE ALOFT
FROM A FORMER MCS OVER IOWA AND INDIANA LAST NIGHT IS DIVING SE
INTO THE CAROLINAS BRINGING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURE READINGS TO LEVEL OFF OR INCREASE
AFTER 9Z THIS MORNING...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REALIZED PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK OVER MANY LOCATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN THE EXTENT AND TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS
AND FAVORED MORE-SO OVER NC. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE WE WILL HAVE TO
INITIALIZE PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING.

HEIGHTS ALOFT TODAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS
MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURE CLIMBS...RESULTING IN HIGHS NEAR OR JUST
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND LOOK FOR MINIMUMS
TO BE MILDER INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...MOST NOTABLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL TAKE
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A
WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DEEPER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIGHTEN AS RIDGE SHIFT EAST AND BUILDS
UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SHUT OFF ANY
MOISTURE OR CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY END OF
PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID
LEVELS ON MONDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SHWRS INLAND AND
RESIDUAL CLOUDS MOVING OVER AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MAINLY LOCALIZED CU
BUILD UP EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND. KEPT LOW END CHC OF LOCALIZED SHWRS
AS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO 60 ESPECIALLY TUES
AFTN. MOISTURE RETURN AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER AS STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A MOISTER RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU BUILDING UP ALONG
CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT
RISES UP NEAR 590 DEM ON WED LASTING THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALSO RISE AND 850 TEMPS REACH AROUND 15C. EXPECT TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A SLIGHT DROP EACH AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...EXCEPT AT KCRE WHERE A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
ATTM WOULD EXPECT WORSE CASE MVFR VSBYS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 314 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ON THE WATERS
ASIDE FROM INCREASED BOATING TRAFFIC OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN TURING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE. A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY WILL
SUPPORT AN ONSHORE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES WILL
BE DETECTABLE...1-3 FEET IN 8 SECOND INTERVALS...MIXED WITH A
LIGHT WIND CHOP TODAY. NO TSTMS OF RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE
THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A S-SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED. EXPECT WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE RATHER BENIGN SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP WITH SPIKE
IN WINDS EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK THROUGH OUR LOCAL WATERS. AS
THE HIGH STRETCHES OUT THROUGH THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GAIN MORE OF
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH E-SE WINDS 10 TS OR LESS EXPECTED.
OVERALL EXPECT BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS
RISING SLIGHTLY IN A PERSISTENT SE PUSH UP TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 260714
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND CONTINUED DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 314 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER COOL EARLY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF
A CANADIAN AIR MASS RESTS ACROSS THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS BEEN STRONG MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ADVANCING MOISTURE ALOFT
FROM A FORMER MCS OVER IOWA AND INDIANA LAST NIGHT IS DIVING SE
INTO THE CAROLINAS BRINGING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURE READINGS TO LEVEL OFF OR INCREASE
AFTER 9Z THIS MORNING...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REALIZED PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK OVER MANY LOCATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN THE EXTENT AND TRAJECTORY OF CLOUDS
AND FAVORED MORE-SO OVER NC. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE WE WILL HAVE TO
INITIALIZE PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING.

HEIGHTS ALOFT TODAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS
MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURE CLIMBS...RESULTING IN HIGHS NEAR OR JUST
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND LOOK FOR MINIMUMS
TO BE MILDER INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...MOST NOTABLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...EXCEPT AT KCRE WHERE A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
ATTM WOULD EXPECT WORSE CASE MVFR VSBYS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 314 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ON THE WATERS
ASIDE FROM INCREASED BOATING TRAFFIC OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN TURING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE. A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TODAY WILL
SUPPORT AN ONSHORE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES WILL
BE DETECTABLE...1-3 FEET IN 8 SECOND INTERVALS...MIXED WITH A
LIGHT WIND CHOP TODAY. NO TSTMS OF RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 260705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA...IN THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC STREAM OF A FRONTOGENETIC LOW-MID LEVEL WAA REGIME
FOCUSED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE MORNING-MIDDAY HOURS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 14-18Z. THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY DEEP DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
AGAIN PER BUFR SOUNDINGS...OF AFTERNOON H85 TEMPERATURES FROM 8C NE
TO 10C SW. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN
THE 20-30TH PERCENTILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST...WITH JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...NWP GUIDANCE
INDICATES A RENEWED SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE H85-7 LAYER WILL STREAM
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN THAT
LAYER...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS...
AND RESULT IN SCT TO BKN 6-8 THOUSAND FT STRATO- ALTOCUMULUS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE ALREADY COOLED TO NEAR OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS BEFORE ANY SUCH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS...HOWEVER...SO WELL-RADIATIONALLY
COOLED LOWS IN THE 46 TO 53 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP (BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED) INVOF THE NC/SC LINE MONDAY MORNING...THEN DIFFUSE
WITH TIME AMIDST BROAD SSE SURFACE FLOW AS IT GRADUALLY EDGES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC LATE IN THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION...IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES...IS EXPECTED TO ARC ROUGHLY FROM KINT TO KHFF TO
KCTZ THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THAT
ARC. WE ADD ABOUT ANOTHER 10-15 METERS TO LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...OR
ABOUT 2 C AT H85 VERSUS THOSE VALUES OF SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

VARIABLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COOL MON NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE...BUT CONFINED TO ALONG THE VA BORDER MON
NIGHT...INVOF THE DIFFUSING AND RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WHERE THE SREF MEAN HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH CONTOUR IS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO MAY ULTIMATELY BE OVERDONE GIVEN FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS THAT DEPICT NEGLIGIBLE CAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH DECENT MOISTURE EARLY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES AND A MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY WEAK SURFACE AND
850MB FRONTS SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER
EARLY TUESDAY...AND AS SUCH THERE SHOULD BE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING
FOR LIFT DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TOP OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDING IN LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SLENDER CAPE AT BEST...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY DOES SHOW ABOUT 750J/KG OF
MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT
500J/KG OF CAPE FROM -10C TO -30C. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE...WILL RETAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF ABOUT KVUJ TO KGSB. CONCEPTUALLY...IT WOULD SEEM THAT
ALONG THE RETREATING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL
BE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...ALONG WITH GFS STORM-MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST THAT ANY
STORM MOTION WOULD BE MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH THAN TYPICAL. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF ANY STRONG STORMS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND 0-3KM SHEAR...THE LATTER IN THE TEENS KTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT WITH THE ADDED LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. THE STABILITY IS NOTED IN THE RAPID INCREASE IN
LIFTED INDICES AS WELL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
59 TO 64.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE TREND IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...OVERALL...HAS BEEN FOR AMPLE RIDGING EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
GREATER WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS ALOFT...WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND OVER THE BAHAMAS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH.
THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF VISIBLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NORTH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING
LOW PRESSURE NORTH...AND THE DGEX APPEARS TO BE A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE GFS...WHICH HAD A TREND OF A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LATEST GFS IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE OF A
WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THOUGH STILL KEEPING ANY
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGING.

GFS MOS ENSEMBLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER AND LOW CHANCE
CLIMATOLOGY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...AND GIVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A TREND OVER TIME OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FARTHER NORTH...THERE IS SOME URGE TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD
FOR NOW UNDER STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF STABILITY AND RELATIVE
WARMTH ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT NEAR THE SEVENTH DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF FORECAST CONSISTENCY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL RETAIN CLOSE
CONTINUITY AS WELL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UNDER THE ORIENTATION
OF THE 850MB RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE HIGHEST 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FORECAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT COULD RIVAL THE TYPICALLY
WARMER AREAS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

 .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A BAND
OF LEFT-OVER MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET...WILL
STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OTHERWISE JUST
PERIODS OF PASSING CIRRUS EXPECTED. LIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT
STILL LIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
(MVFR) FOG TUE MORNING...MAINLY AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
WED MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AND DEEPENS
IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KMHX 260630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING A FLOW OF COOL AND DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR ACROSS EASTERN NC. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAKING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SW ZONES
WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. THE CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY
START WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LEVELS...HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AVERAGE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE
BEACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 5/26:

KEWN        50 1967
GREENVILLE  43 1988
WASHINGTON  51 1904

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. RESULTING STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER NIGHT OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND
AND 55 TO 60 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...25/12Z ECMWF AND 26/00Z GFS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTENT TO KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE BUILDS WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS
EASTERN NC. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY/VFR. LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
WATERS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE THIS MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15
KT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUND WATERS PEAKING
AROUND 12Z. THE FLOW THEN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS (ONSHORE FLOW). TONIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TODAY WILL BE 2 TO 3
FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS...AND SEAS RUNNING 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA

000
FXUS62 KRAH 260539
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
139 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT:
SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US AND THE STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER S/W
DISTURBANCE HAS HIT THE SKIDS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE LEFTOVER
MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A GOOD 2 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD EASILY BE A
GOOD 3 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER...IF NOT MORE. LOWS RANGING BETWEEN MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. -CBL

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING
DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC SHOULD YIELD MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. -KC

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE SEWD AND CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC. THE COMBINATION OF
THE INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD ARE TIMED WITH MAX HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE RATHER
LOW SO WILL HAVE POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY NORTH HALF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE SE U.S. INITIATING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 THU AND FRI. 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE
SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD WITH TIME SO THAT BY FRI...WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 10K FT S-SE. THIS WILL AID TO ABATE THE HEAT. PLAN TO START
OUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S THURSDAY-SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO UNDERGO A
GRADUAL WARMING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

&&

 .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. A BAND
OF LEFT-OVER MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET...WILL
STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH OTHERWISE JUST
PERIODS OF PASSING CIRRUS EXPECTED. LIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT
STILL LIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
(MVFR) FOG TUE MORNING...MAINLY AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
WED MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AND DEEPENS
IN RETURN FLOW AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL/KC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 260501
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
101 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND CONTINUED DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...SKIES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE WITH
THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH SOME PATCHES OF OPAQUE CIRRUS.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE SHEAR VORTS WITHIN NW FLOW TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THESE VORTS MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE OPAQUE ALTOCU. TONIGHTS MINS LOOK ON CUE...WITH UPPER
40S INLAND...50 TO 55 AT THE COAST. A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION
HAS DEVELOPED AFTER SUNSET WITH DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS SOON TO
FOLLOW. AS A RESULT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING TONIGHTS MINS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S INLAND...TO 50 TO 55 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE THIS
MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...EXCEPT AT KCRE WHERE A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
ATTM WOULD EXPECT WORSE CASE MVFR VSBYS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE A BUBBLE TYPE SFC HIGH TO BREAK
OFF FROM THE MAIN RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ADD SOME CONFUSION TO FORECASTING A WIND DIRECTION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WITH THE SFC PG RELAXED SPEEDS
WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT...AND BE DOMINATED BY A 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY SWELL AT 8 TO 9
SECOND PERIODS. THE SHOALS AND LONGER SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS
AROUND 2 FT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR/MJC

000
FXUS62 KMHX 260431
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING A FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR
ACROSS EASTERN NC. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OCCURRING NOW
THAT WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND AND INITIAL BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS AGAIN TO APPROACH OR REACH
RECORDS LATE TONIGHT WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S COAST. SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE AS A SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.

SOME RECORD LOWS FOR 5/26:

KEWN        50 1967
GREENVILLE  43 1988
WASHINGTON  51 1904

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF SHRT WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPR
LOW TO NE WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY SUN MORNING RESULTING IN WEAK
SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING SHRT WV
WILL BE PUSHED S DURING AFTN. GOOD INSOLATION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID 70S INLAND
WITH 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC SUN NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FROM THE SW...PLACING EASTERN NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTO MON
EVENING. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH SE
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON...ALLOWING RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO
SET UP LATE MON WITH TEMPS BUILDING BACK TO CLIMO. MINOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH LOCATION OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX MON AND TUES. WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
MON AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH AND BEST VORT/UPPER SUPPORT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...MISSING OUR CWA BUT CAN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR INLAND ZONES TUES AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD DEWPOINTS BACK ABOVE 60 F AND EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE
INLAND.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUES
NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM TUES NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE CLIMO TUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TUES
AND WED...TO UPPER 80S THURS AND A FEW 90S FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS
EASTERN NC. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS
MON AND TUE
00004000
S BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TUES INTO LATE
WEEK...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED AND
THURS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS (ONSHORE FLOW) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
SUNDAY IN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY MON THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...THEY WILL REMAIN 5-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST FOR OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
ZONES. OVERALL...EXPECT GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG/LEP

000
FXUS62 KILM 260249
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...VIA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...SKIES EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE WITH THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH
SOME PATCHES OF OPAQUE CIRRUS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE
SHEAR VORTS WITHIN NW FLOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE VORTS MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
OPAQUE ALTOCU BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING UNTIL AROUND OR
AFTER DAYBREAK SUN. THE SCOURING DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW
UPSTAIRS WILL BE WORKING AGAINST ANY MOISTURE AFTER CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS. BASICALLY WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FCST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. TONIGHTS MINS LOOK ON CUE...WITH UPPER 40S
INLAND...50 TO 55 AT THE COAST. A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SUNSET WITH DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS SOON
TO FOLLOW. AS A RESULT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING TONIGHTS MINS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S INLAND...TO 50 TO 55 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE A BUBBLE TYPE SFC HIGH TO
BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ADD SOME CONFUSION TO FORECASTING A WIND DIRECTION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WITH THE SFC PG RELAXED
SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT...AND BE DOMINATED BY A 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY SWELL AT
8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. THE SHOALS AND LONGER SHELF WATERS WILL
KEEP SEAS AROUND 2 FT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...

000
FXUS62 KMHX 260215
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1015 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FILTERING INTO THE FCST AREA ON NW
FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS SHUD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. LOWS MAINLY
MID-UPR 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50/LOW 50S COAST.

SOME RECORD LOWS FOR 5/26:

KEWN        50 1967
GREENVILLE  43 1988
WASHINGTON  51 1904

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF SHRT WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPR
LOW TO NE WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY SUN MORNING RESULTING IN WEAK
SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING SHRT WV
WILL BE PUSHED S DURING AFTN. GOOD INSOLATION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID 70S INLAND
WITH 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC SUN NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FROM THE SW...PLACING EASTERN NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTO MON
EVENING. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH SE
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON...ALLOWING RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO
SET UP LATE MON WITH TEMPS BUILDING BACK TO CLIMO. MINOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH LOCATION OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX MON AND TUES. WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
MON AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH AND BEST VORT/UPPER SUPPORT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...MISSING OUR CWA BUT CAN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR INLAND ZONES TUES AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD DEWPOINTS BACK ABOVE 60 F AND EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE
INLAND.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUES
NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM TUES NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE CLIMO TUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TUES
AND WED...TO UPPER 80S THURS AND A FEW 90S FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER AREA. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS ROUND THE RIDGE/BASE OF THE
EXITING TROUGH. NWLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY SUNDAY GIVEN A
MORE RELAXED GRADIENT IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS
MON AND TUES BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TUES INTO LATE
WEEK...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED AND
THURS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKENING
OF PRES GRAD BETWEEN LOW PRES TO NE AND HIGH PRES TO S AND W.
SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WEAK/BRIEF CAA SURGE SUNDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS DURING AFTN WITH LCL SEA/SOUND BREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THRU
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY MON THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...THEY WILL REMAIN 5-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST FOR OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
ZONES. OVERALL...EXPECT GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...BTC/JBM/DAG

000
FXUS62 KRAH 260151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT:
SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US AND THE STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER S/W
DISTURBANCE HAS HIT THE SKIDS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE LEFTOVER
MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A GOOD 2 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD EASILY BE A
GOOD 3 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER...IF NOT MORE. LOWS RANGING BETWEEN MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. -CBL

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING
DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC SHOULD YIELD MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. -KC

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE SEWD AND CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC. THE COMBINATION OF
THE INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD ARE TIMED WITH MAX HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE RATHER
LOW SO WILL HAVE POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY NORTH HALF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE SE U.S. INITIATING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 THU AND FRI. 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE
SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD WITH TIME SO THAT BY FRI...WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 10K FT S-SE. THIS WILL AID TO ABATE THE HEAT. PLAN TO START
OUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S THURSDAY-SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO UNDERGO A
GRADUAL WARMING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

&&

 .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. ONCE THE HIGH SLIPS
OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/KC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KRR
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 260002 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
801 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM 
00004000
/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 722 PM SATURDAY...VIA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS..SCT TO BKN CI TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA FROM THE NW.
WILL MAINLY BE THIN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE CI TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUN. BASICALLY STICK TO A MOSTLY CLEAR FCST FOR TONITE. TONIGHTS
MINS LOOK ON CUE...WITH UPPER 40S INLAND...50 TO 55 AT THE COAST.
EXPECT A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS. AS A RESULT...DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TONIGHTS MINS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND...TO 50 TO 55 AT THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...PROGS INDICATE A BUBBLE TYPE SFC HIGH TO
BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ADD SOME CONFUSION TO FORECASTING A WIND DIRECTION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WITH THE SFC PG RELAXED
...SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...AND BE DOMINATED BY A 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 252358
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
758 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT SE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT POSSIBLY KEEPING THE WINDS UP JUST
A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN...ON THE OTHER HAND...SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THE BEST...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN...WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING
DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC SHOULD YIELD MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE SEWD AND CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC. THE COMBINATION OF
THE INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD ARE TIMED WITH MAX HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE RATHER
LOW SO WILL HAVE POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY NORTH HALF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE SE U.S. INITIATING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 THU AND FRI. 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE
SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD WITH TIME SO THAT BY FRI...WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 10K FT S-SE. THIS WILL AID TO ABATE THE HEAT. PLAN TO START
OUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S THURSDAY-SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO UNDERGO A
GRADUAL WARMING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

&&

 .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. ONCE THE HIGH SLIPS
OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KRR
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 252356
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
756 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM SATURDAY...VIA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS..SCT TO BKN CI TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA FROM THE NW. WILL
MAINLY BE THIN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE CI TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
BASICALLY STICK TO A MOSTLY CLEAR FCST FOR TONITE. TONIGHTS MINS
LOOK ON CUE...WITH UPPER 40S INLAND...50 TO 55 AT THE COAST.
EXPECT A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS. AS A RESULT...DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TONIGHTS MINS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND...TO 50 TO 55 AT THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S OF 12Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...PROGS INDICATE A BUBBLE TYPE SFC HIGH TO
BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ADD SOME CONFUSION TO FORECASTING A WIND DIRECTION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WITH THE SFC PG RELAXED
...SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...AND BE DOMINATED BY A 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY
SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
V
00008000
OID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 252332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S OF 12Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS.
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS HAVE INDICATED
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW-NE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS 13-14Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN BY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT KFLO/KLBT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ALREADY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE BUT WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 2 FT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

000
FXUS62 KMHX 252324
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
724 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HOURLY
TEMPS SLOW TO DROP GIVEN SOME LINGERING BL MIXING. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM AN UPSTREAT SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
AND MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS PSBL AGAIN INLAND. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSCTD WITH SHRT WV DIVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SRN SECTIONS. THIS
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND GENERALLY WENT WITH MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...MID-UPR 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COAST.

SOME RECORD LOWS FOR 5/26:

KEWN        50 1967
GREENVILLE  43 1988
WASHINGTON  51 1904

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF SHRT WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPR
LOW TO NE WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY SUN MORNING RESULTING IN WEAK
SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING SHRT WV
WILL BE PUSHED S DURING AFTN. GOOD INSOLATION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID 70S INLAND
WITH 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC SUN NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FROM THE SW...PLACING EASTERN NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTO MON
EVENING. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH SE
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON...ALLOWING RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO
SET UP LATE MON WITH TEMPS BUILDING BACK TO CLIMO. MINOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH LOCATION OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX MON AND TUES. WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
MON AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH AND BEST VORT/UPPER SUPPORT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...MISSING OUR CWA BUT CAN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR INLAND ZONES TUES AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD DEWPOINTS BACK ABOVE 60 F AND EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE
INLAND.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUES
NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM TUES NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE CLIMO TUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TUES
AND WED...TO UPPER 80S THURS AND A FEW 90S FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER AREA. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS ROUND THE RIDGE/BASE OF THE
EXITING TROUGH. NWLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY SUNDAY GIVEN A
MORE RELAXED GRADIENT IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS
MON AND TUES BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TUES INTO LATE
WEEK...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED AND
THURS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBS
YIELDING NWLY FLOW AROUND 15-20KTS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4FT WITH
5FT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH WEAKENING OF PRES GRAD BETWEEN LOW PRES TO NE AND HIGH PRES
TO S AND W. WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER CAA SURGE SUNDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS DURING AFTN WITH LCL SEA/SOUND BREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING.

WILL ALLOW SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT....AND GENERALLY 2-4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY MON THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...THEY WILL REMAIN 5-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST FOR OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
ZONES. OVERALL...EXPECT GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/LEP

000
FXUS62 KMHX 252034
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS PSBL AGAIN INLAND. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSCTD WITH SHRT WV DIVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SRN SECTIONS. THIS
CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND GENERALLY WENT WITH MOS BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS...MID-UPR 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 COAST.

SOME RECORD LOWS FOR 5/26:

KEWN        50 1967
GREENVILLE  43 1988
WASHINGTON  51 1904

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF SHRT WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPR
LOW TO NE WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY SUN MORNING RESULTING IN WEAK
SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING SHRT WV
WILL BE PUSHED S DURING AFTN. GOOD INSOLATION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID 70S INLAND
WITH 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC SUN NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FROM THE SW...PLACING EASTERN NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTO MON
EVENING. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH SE
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON...ALLOWING RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO
SET UP LATE MON WITH TEMPS BUILDING BACK TO CLIMO. MINOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH LOCATION OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX MON AND TUES. WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
MON AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH AND BEST VORT/UPPER SUPPORT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...MISSING OUR CWA BUT CAN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR INLAND ZONES TUES AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD DEWPOINTS BACK ABOVE 60 F AND EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE
INLAND.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUES
NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM TUES NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE CLIMO TUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TUES
AND WED...TO UPPER 80S THURS AND A FEW 90S FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER AREA. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
PSBL INTO EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS
MON AND TUES BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TUES INTO LATE
WEEK...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED AND
THURS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...W TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKENING OF PRES GRAD BETWEEN LOW PRES TO NE AND HIGH
PRES TO S AND W. WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT RESULTING IN ANOTHER CAA SURGE SUNDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGING
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS DURING AFTN WITH LCL SEA/SOUND BREEZE
INFLUENCES LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING.

WILL ALLOW SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT....AND GENERALLY 2-4 FT LATE TONGIHT AND
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY MON THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...THEY WILL REMAIN 5-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST FOR OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
ZONES. OVERALL...EXPECT GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG

000
FXUS62 KILM 251927
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
HOLIDAY WKND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
CONDITIONS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DURING MONDAY. WHILE THIS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL WINDS W/NW...A
COOL BUT DRYING DIRECTION...SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING UP A POSITION OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL RISE TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 80 DEGREES...THEN BUMP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR MEMORIAL DAY WHEN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
COOL...MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WARM RETURN FLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DURING MONDAY. INCREASED SURFACE TEMPS CREATE SOME
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...AND
MAYBE A SHOWER. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ABOVE 800MB IS A DRYING FLOW...AND
700MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE HIGH
LEADING TO A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND PARCELS THROUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
LID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
OUT WEST. ANOMALY IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WITH HEIGHTS NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SAME MODEL SUITE IS SHOWING
THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE AND WPC NUMBERS WHICH ONLY SHOW MODEST WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST BEING THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. NORTH-NORTHWEST  WINDS AOB
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF ISSUANCE TIME BACK
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING
GENERALLY NORTH AOB 6 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ALREADY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE BUT WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 2 FT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY...SETTLING IN A POSITION JUST NE OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEY WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM VARIABLE...TO A PREDOMINANT
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MONDAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SWELL-DRIVEN...WITH A 2FT/9SEC SE
SWELL PRODUCING 1-3 FT WAVES BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BASICALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL. WAVEWATCH BULLETINS CONTINUE TO BE
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE SWELL COMPONENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/SGL
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

000
FXUS62 KMHX 251920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGS
WITH WARMING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST TODAY THE RESULTING
HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY START WITH RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC SUN NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FROM THE SW...PLACING EASTERN NC IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTO MON
EVENING. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH SE
AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON...ALLOWING RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO
SET UP LATE MON WITH TEMPS BUILDING BACK TO CLIMO. MINOR
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH LOCATION OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES/VORTMAX MON AND TUES. WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
MON AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH AND BEST VORT/UPPER SUPPORT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...MISSING OUR CWA BUT CAN EXPECT
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR INLAND ZONES TUES AFTERNOON AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BUILD DEWPOINTS BACK ABOVE 60 F AND EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE
INLAND.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUES
NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM TUES NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE CLIMO TUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TUES
AND WED...TO UPPER 80S THURS AND A FEW 90S FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER AREA. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
PSBL INTO EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS
MON AND TUES BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TUES INTO LATE
WEEK...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE WED AND
THURS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN
WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS
AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY MON THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY...THEY WILL REMAIN 5-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...HIGHEST FOR OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
ZONES. OVERALL...EXPECT GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG

000
FXUS62 KRAH 251855
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT SE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT POSSIBLY KEEPING THE WINDS UP JUST
A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN...ON THE OTHER HAND...SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THE BEST...ALBEIT A
LITTLE SLOW. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN...WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING
DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC SHOULD YIELD MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN A NW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE SEWD AND CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC. THE COMBINATION OF
THE INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD ARE TIMED WITH MAX HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE RATHER
LOW SO WILL HAVE POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY NORTH HALF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE SE U.S. INITIATING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 THU AND FRI. 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE
SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD WITH TIME SO THAT BY FRI...WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 10K FT S-SE. THIS WILL AID TO ABATE THE HEAT. PLAN TO START
OUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 80S THURSDAY-SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO UNDERGO A
GRADUAL WARMING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

&&

 .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 134 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR THIS AFT/EVE. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BASES MAINLY 8-10 KFT.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO GUST
TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WILL START TO SEE RETURN FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUB-VFR FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 251817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
217 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:15 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
0000750E
...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST BEING THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. NORTH-NORTHWEST  WINDS AOB
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF ISSUANCE TIME BACK
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING
GENERALLY NORTH AOB 6 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:15 PM SATURDAY...ALREADY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE BUT WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 2 FT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RGZ

000
FXUS62 KMHX 251759
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGS
WITH WARMING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST TODAY THE RESULTING
HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY START WITH RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER AREA. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW TONIGHT AND DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
PSBL INTO EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN
WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS
AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
       AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM

000
FXUS62 KRAH 251735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
134 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

 .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1009 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY: 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW H5 HEIGHT RISES OF 40-60 METERS
OVER CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODEL 500 MB VORTICITY PLOTS INDICATE A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BREAKING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
RIDING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
MAY GENERATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFT/EVE AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING...MAY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY. WILL LEAVE HIGHS UNCHANGED
FOR NOW...LOW 70S NE TO MID 70S SW. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WINDS 10-12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 25 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT...NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATION
DATA...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCED NORTHERLY STIRRING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...BUT THE OFTEN
TIMES SUPERIOR GEM/CANADIAN (WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULARLY HIGH
CLOUDS) IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GEM GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM CIRRUS DIMINISHING AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND PAST
EXPERIENCE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL GENERALLY INTO THE 43
TO 49 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SIGNAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS STRONGEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED PLEASANTLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE. LOWS GENERALLY 50 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...300MB AND 500MB JETS MOVE EAST EARLY
MONDAY...WITH LIMITED LIFT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...TO
AROUND 6C/KM...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST LIFTED INDICES
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0C AT BEST. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REFLECTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE. THE NAM IS FASTER...
PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER PUSHING THOSE VALUES TO JUST OVER
1.25 INCHES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY...
KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED
QPF AND...WHERE THEY HAVE ANY...REFLECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF U.S. 64.
CONCEPTUALLY...LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION MORE...AS ITS QPF...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SEEM TO BETTER REFLECT ITS SURFACE
BOUNDARY DEPICTION...AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE YET HAS A QPF ORIENTATION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A LOCATION OF
SUCH POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGSO TO KGSB...AND IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...THAT IS STILL TOO FAR NORTH. TAKING THE GFS ALMOST
EXACTLY...SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVUJ TO KGSB. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS...AS EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM ALOFT TOWARD 500MB FOR DEEP
UPDRAFTS TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITHIN A DEGREE OR
THREE OF 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
ANY MOISTURE CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANG
AROUND...MORE ON THE NAM...LESS ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE MEX THERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING VERY CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OR OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DURING THIS PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EARLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLY
REFLECTED ONLY WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURE...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MORE
COARSE ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF CIN...BUT IT IS
ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR WHEN THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTS RELATIVE TO OTHER DAYS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE OR NO QPF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LESSEN...UNDER INCREASING
RIDGING. EACH DAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME REFLECTION OF A PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. USING THICKNESSES AS A PROXY FOR POTENTIAL STORM MOTION
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION...IF ANY OCCURS...COULD
DEVELOP OFF OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE TRIAD
WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTER THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR EVEN
THAT TO OCCUR. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

 .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 134 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR THIS AFT/EVE. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BASES MAINLY 8-10 KFT.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO GUST
TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WILL START TO SEE RETURN FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUB-VFR FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KRAH 251734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

 .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1009 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY: 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW H5 HEIGHT RISES OF 40-60 METERS
OVER CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODEL 500 MB VORTICITY PLOTS INDICATE A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BREAKING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
RIDING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
MAY GENERATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFT/EVE AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING...MAY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY. WILL LEAVE HIGHS UNCHANGED
FOR NOW...LOW 70S NE TO MID 70S SW. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WINDS 10-12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 25 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT...NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATION
DATA...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCED NORTHERLY STIRRING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...BUT THE OFTEN
TIMES SUPERIOR GEM/CANADIAN (WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULARLY HIGH
CLOUDS) IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GEM GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM CIRRUS DIMINISHING AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND PAST
EXPERIENCE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL GENERALLY INTO THE 43
TO 49 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SIGNAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS STRONGEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED PLEASANTLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE. LOWS GENERALLY 50 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...300MB AND 500MB JETS MOVE EAST EARLY
MONDAY...WITH LIMITED LIFT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...TO
AROUND 6C/KM...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST LIFTED INDICES
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0C AT BEST. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REFLECTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE. THE NAM IS FASTER...
PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER PUSHING THOSE VALUES TO JUST OVER
1.25 INCHES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY...
KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED
QPF AND...WHERE THEY HAVE ANY...REFLECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF U.S. 64.
CONCEPTUALLY...LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION MORE...AS ITS QPF...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SEEM TO BETTER REFLECT ITS SURFACE
BOUNDARY DEPICTION...AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE YET HAS A QPF ORIENTATION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A LOCATION OF
SUCH POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGSO TO KGSB...AND IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...THAT IS STILL TOO FAR NORTH. TAKING THE GFS ALMOST
EXACTLY...SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVUJ TO KGSB. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS...AS EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM ALOFT TOWARD 500MB FOR DEEP
UPDRAFTS TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITHIN A DEGREE OR
THREE OF 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
ANY MOISTURE CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANG
AROUND...MORE ON THE NAM...LESS ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE MEX THERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING VERY CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OR OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DURING THIS PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EARLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLY
REFLECTED ONLY WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURE...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MORE
COARSE ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF CIN...BUT IT IS
ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR WHEN THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTS RELATIVE TO OTHER DAYS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE OR NO QPF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LESSEN...UNDER INCREASING
RIDGING. EACH DAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME REFLECTION OF A PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. USING THICKNESSES AS A PROXY FOR POTENTIAL STORM MOTION
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION...IF ANY OCCURS...COULD
DEVELOP OFF OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE TRIAD
WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTER THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR EVEN
THAT TO OCCUR. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

 .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 134 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR THIS AFT/EVE. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BASES MAINLY 8-10 KFT.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO GUST
TO AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WILL START TO SEE RETURN FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUB-VFR FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 251636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AT 10Z/6AM ILM ASOS REPORTED 49 DEGREES WHICH CRACKS A 46 YEAR OLD
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 25TH. AT 10Z FLO REPORTED 45
DEGREES SMASHING THEIR OLD RECORD SET BACK IN THAT SAME YEAR 1967.
WHILE LBT HAS NOT AS YET ESTABLISHED AN EXTENSIVE CLIMATIC DATA-
BASE...AT 6AM A CHILLY 43 DEGREES WAS REPORTED. ALSO AT 10Z CRE
REPORTS 46 DEGREES WHICH BREAKS A RECORD LOW SET 62 YEARS AGO. THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL
START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES
TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS
EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRO
00004000
DUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON
TAP FOR THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEING THE
EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS BY
MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

CHOPPY NORTH WIND WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY AS WINDS BECOME NW TO WNW
AND EASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP
SEAS A BIT PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONG WAVE PERIOD PORTION OF
THE WAVE SPECTRUM IS ON A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND
SURGE MAY BRING WINDS TO 13 TO 17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ

000
FXUS62 KMHX 251457
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMP
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. RIDGING SFC
AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SUNNY AND DRY DAY WHILE COOL AIRMASS WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. SOME CI WILL APPROACH FROM NW
LATE AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST TODAY THE RESULTING
HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY START WITH RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL OPAQUE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE AND DISRUPTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRYNESS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE OVER SOUNDS...BUT KEPT
FOR NRN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FT OUTER PORTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN
WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS
AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
       AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM

000
FXUS62 KRAH 251409
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

 .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1009 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY: 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW H5 HEIGHT RISES OF 40-60 METERS
OVER CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODEL 500 MB VORTICITY PLOTS INDICATE A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BREAKING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
RIDING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
MAY GENERATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFT/EVE AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING...MAY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY. WILL LEAVE HIGHS UNCHANGED
FOR NOW...LOW 70S NE TO MID 70S SW. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WINDS 10-12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 25 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT...NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATION
DATA...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCED NORTHERLY STIRRING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...BUT THE OFTEN
TIMES SUPERIOR GEM/CANADIAN (WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULARLY HIGH
CLOUDS) IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GEM GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM CIRRUS DIMINISHING AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND PAST
EXPERIENCE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL GENERALLY INTO THE 43
TO 49 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SIGNAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS STRONGEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED PLEASANTLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE. LOWS GENERALLY 50 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...300MB AND 500MB JETS MOVE EAST EARLY
MONDAY...WITH LIMITED LIFT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...TO
AROUND 6C/KM...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST LIFTED INDICES
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0C AT BEST. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REFLECTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE. THE NAM IS FASTER...
PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER PUSHING THOSE VALUES TO JUST OVER
1.25 INCHES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY...
KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED
QPF AND...WHERE THEY HAVE ANY...REFLECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF U.S. 64.
CONCEPTUALLY...LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION MORE...AS ITS QPF...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SEEM TO BETTER REFLECT ITS SURFACE
BOUNDARY DEPICTION...AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE YET HAS A QPF ORIENTATION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A LOCATION OF
SUCH POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGSO TO KGSB...AND IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...THAT IS STILL TOO FAR NORTH. TAKING THE GFS ALMOST
EXACTLY...SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVUJ TO KGSB. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS...AS EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM ALOFT TOWARD 500MB FOR DEEP
UPDRAFTS TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITHIN A DEGREE OR
THREE OF 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
ANY MOISTURE CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANG
AROUND...MORE ON THE NAM...LESS ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE MEX THERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING VERY CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OR OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DURING THIS PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EARLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLY
REFLECTED ONLY WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURE...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MORE
COARSE ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF CIN...BUT IT IS
ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR WHEN THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTS RELATIVE TO OTHER DAYS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE OR NO QPF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LESSEN...UNDER INCREASING
RIDGING. EACH DAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME REFLECTION OF A PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. USING THICKNESSES AS A PROXY FOR POTENTIAL STORM MOTION
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION...IF ANY OCCURS...COULD
DEVELOP OFF OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE TRIAD
WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTER THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR EVEN
THAT TO OCCUR. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
AND PROMOTE A HIGH CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL AVERAGE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY...BUT
WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18
KTS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD TO
INCREASING CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTINUED CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING...MAINLY
AT KRWI. LIGHT FOG...OR LOW STRATUS AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN INCREASINGLY MOIST RETURN FLOW WED MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 251339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
939 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TH
00004000
E MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
WISPS OF CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
MOST PLACES. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AT 10Z/6AM ILM ASOS REPORTED 49 DEGREES WHICH CRACKS A 46 YEAR OLD
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 25TH. AT 10Z FLO REPORTED 45
DEGREES SMASHING THEIR OLD RECORD SET BACK IN THAT SAME YEAR 1967.
WHILE LBT HAS NOT AS YET ESTABLISHED AN EXTENSIVE CLIMATIC DATA-
BASE...AT 6AM A CHILLY 43 DEGREES WAS REPORTED. ALSO AT 10Z CRE
REPORTS 46 DEGREES WHICH BREAKS A RECORD LOW SET 62 YEARS AGO. THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL
START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES
TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS
EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON
TAP FOR THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEING THE
EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS BY
MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

CHOPPY NORTH WIND WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY AS WINDS BECOME NW TO WNW
AND EASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP
SEAS A BIT PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONG WAVE PERIOD PORTION OF
THE WAVE SPECTRUM IS ON A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND
SURGE MAY BRING WINDS TO 13 TO 17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ

000
FXUS62 KILM 251136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...AT 10Z/6AM ILM ASOS REPORTED 49 DEGREES WHICH
CRACKS A 46 YEAR OLD RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 25TH. AT
10Z FLO REPORTED 45 DEGREES SMASHING THEIR OLD RECORD SET BACK
IN THAT SAME YEAR 1967. WHILE LBT HAS NOT AS YET ESTABLISHED AN
EXTENSIVE CLIMATIC DATA-BASE...AT 6AM A CHILLY 43 DEGREES WAS
REPORTED. ALSO AT 10Z CRE REPORTS 46 DEGREES WHICH BREAKS A RECORD
LOW SET 62 YEARS AGO. THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL
START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES
TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS
EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON
TAP FOR THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEING THE
EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS BY
MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BUMPY SEAS IN PART TO CHOPPY NORTH WIND-
WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY...AS WINDS BECOME NW-WNW AND EASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP SEAS A BIT
PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONGER WAVE-PERIOD PORTION OF THE WAVE
SPECTRUM IS IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND-SURGE MAY
BRING WINDS TO 13-17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KRAH 251134
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY: BEHIND THE MID-UPPER LOW LIFTING UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COAST...HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL NC. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH SOME
PASSING THIN CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF
AFTERNOON H85 TEMPERATURES FROM 7C NE TO 9C SW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT...NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATION
DATA...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCED NORTHERLY STIRRING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...BUT THE OFTEN
TIMES SUPERIOR GEM/CANADIAN (WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULARLY HIGH
CLOUDS) IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GEM G
00004000
IVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM CIRRUS DIMINISHING AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND PAST
EXPERIENCE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL GENERALLY INTO THE 43
TO 49 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SIGNAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS STRONGEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED PLEASANTLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE. LOWS GENERALLY 50 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...300MB AND 500MB JETS MOVE EAST EARLY
MONDAY...WITH LIMITED LIFT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...TO
AROUND 6C/KM...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST LIFTED INDICES
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0C AT BEST. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REFLECTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE. THE NAM IS FASTER...
PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER PUSHING THOSE VALUES TO JUST OVER
1.25 INCHES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY...
KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED
QPF AND...WHERE THEY HAVE ANY...REFLECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF U.S. 64.
CONCEPTUALLY...LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION MORE...AS ITS QPF...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SEEM TO BETTER REFLECT ITS SURFACE
BOUNDARY DEPICTION...AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE YET HAS A QPF ORIENTATION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A LOCATION OF
SUCH POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGSO TO KGSB...AND IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...THAT IS STILL TOO FAR NORTH. TAKING THE GFS ALMOST
EXACTLY...SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVUJ TO KGSB. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS...AS EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM ALOFT TOWARD 500MB FOR DEEP
UPDRAFTS TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITHIN A DEGREE OR
THREE OF 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
ANY MOISTURE CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANG
AROUND...MORE ON THE NAM...LESS ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE MEX THERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING VERY CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OR OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DURING THIS PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EARLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLY
REFLECTED ONLY WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURE...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MORE
COARSE ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF CIN...BUT IT IS
ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR WHEN THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTS RELATIVE TO OTHER DAYS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE OR NO QPF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LESSEN...UNDER INCREASING
RIDGING. EACH DAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME REFLECTION OF A PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. USING THICKNESSES AS A PROXY FOR POTENTIAL STORM MOTION
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION...IF ANY OCCURS...COULD
DEVELOP OFF OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE TRIAD
WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTER THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR EVEN
THAT TO OCCUR. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
AND PROMOTE A HIGH CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL AVERAGE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY...BUT
WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18
KTS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD TO
INCREASING CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTINUED CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING...MAINLY
AT KRWI. LIGHT FOG...OR LOW STRATUS AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN INCREASINGLY MOIST RETURN FLOW WED MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 26TH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE FOLLOWING RECORDS FOR THE DATE:

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1979

GSO                           42 / 1930

FAY                           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KMHX 251026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST TODAY THE RESULTING
HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY START WITH RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL OPAQUE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE AND DISRUPTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRYNESS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN
WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS
AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA

000
FXUS62 KILM 251011
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
611 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...AT 10Z/6AM ILM ASOS REPORTED 49 DEGREES WHICH
CRACKS A 46 YEAR OLD RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 25TH. AT
10Z FLO REPORTED 45 DEGREES SMASHING THEIR OLD RECORD SET BACK
IN THAT SAME YEAR 1967. WHILE LBT HAS NOT AS YET ESTABLISHED AN
EXTENSIVE CLIMATIC DATA-BASE...AT 6AM A CHILLY 43 DEGREES WAS
REPORTED. ALSO AT 10Z CRE REPORTS 46 DEGREES WHICH BREAKS A RECORD
LOW SET 62 YEARS AGO. THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL
START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES
TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS
EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NNW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY MID
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/SW AFTER 18Z WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
INHIBIT CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. THE VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER
OUR AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME CALM...
BUT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE
00004000
AR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BUMPY SEAS IN PART TO CHOPPY NORTH WIND-
WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY...AS WINDS BECOME NW-WNW AND EASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP SEAS A BIT
PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONGER WAVE-PERIOD PORTION OF THE WAVE
SPECTRUM IS IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND-SURGE MAY
BRING WINDS TO 13-17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/MJC

000
FXUS62 KILM 250703
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
303 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS
OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED
INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY
SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

A LOOK AT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING COMPARED TO RECORD
LOWS FOR MAY 25TH WILL BE COVERED IN THE DAYBREAK AFD UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NNW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY MID
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/SW AFTER 18Z WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
INHIBIT CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. THE VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER
OUR AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME CALM...
BUT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BUMPY SEAS IN PART TO CHOPPY NORTH WIND-
WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY...AS WINDS BECOME NW-WNW AND EASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP SEAS A BIT
PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONGER WAVE-PERIOD PORTION OF THE WAVE
SPECTRUM IS IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND-SURGE MAY
BRING WINDS TO 13-17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 250659
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY: BEHIND THE MID-UPPER LOW LIFTING UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COAST...HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL NC. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THOUGH WITH SOME
PASSING THIN CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF
AFTERNOON H85 TEMPERATURES FROM 7C NE TO 9C SW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT: THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT...NOT CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATION
DATA...WHICH NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ENHANCED NORTHERLY STIRRING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY INITIALLY SLOW OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...BUT THE OFTEN
TIMES SUPERIOR GEM/CANADIAN (WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULARLY HIGH
CLOUDS) IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW THE GEM GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM CIRRUS DIMINISHING AS IT SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND PAST
EXPERIENCE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL GENERALLY INTO THE 43
TO 49 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SIGNAL FOR
AT LEAST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS IS STRONGEST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF JUST SOME
PASSING CIRRUS. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED PLEASANTLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE. LOWS GENERALLY 50 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...300MB AND 500MB JETS MOVE EAST EARLY
MONDAY...WITH LIMITED LIFT FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...TO
AROUND 6C/KM...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST LIFTED INDICES
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0C AT BEST. THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REFLECTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE. THE NAM IS FASTER...
PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER PUSHING THOSE VALUES TO JUST OVER
1.25 INCHES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 00Z TUESDAY...
KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED
QPF AND...WHERE THEY HAVE ANY...REFLECTED MOSTLY SOUTH OF U.S. 64.
CONCEPTUALLY...LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION MORE...AS ITS QPF...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SEEM TO BETTER REFLECT ITS SURFACE
BOUNDARY DEPICTION...AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE INCREASE YET HAS A QPF ORIENTATION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A LOCATION OF
SUCH POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGSO TO KGSB...AND IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT...THAT IS STILL TOO FAR NORTH. TAKING THE GFS ALMOST
EXACTLY...SLIGHT CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KVUJ TO KGSB. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS...AS EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM ALOFT TOWARD 500MB FOR DEEP
UPDRAFTS TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITHIN A DEGREE OR
THREE OF 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
ANY MOISTURE CAN MOVE NORTHEAST...AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANG
AROUND...MORE ON THE NAM...LESS ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOWER ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE MEX THERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...LEADING TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING VERY CLOSE TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OR OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
DURING THIS PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE EARLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLY
REFLECTED ONLY WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AND INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURE...MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MORE
COARSE ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF CIN...BUT IT IS
ON TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR WHEN THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXISTS RELATIVE TO OTHER DAYS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE OR NO QPF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO LESSEN...UNDER INCREASING
RIDGING. EACH DAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME REFLECTION OF A PIEDMONT
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. USING THICKNESSES AS A PROXY FOR POTENTIAL STORM MOTION
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION...IF ANY OCCURS...COULD
DEVELOP OFF OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE TRIAD
WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTER THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR EVEN
THAT TO OCCUR. THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY...AND BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
AND PROMOTE A HIGH CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL AVERAGE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY...BUT
WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18
KTS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD TO
INCREASING BUT THIN CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTINUED CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING...MAINLY
AT KRWI. LIGHT FOG...OR LOW STRATUS AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN INCREASINGLY MOIST RETURN FLOW WED MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING/THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

FAY                           46 / 1967           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KMHX 250658
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TH
00004000
E AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE
COAST TODAY THE RESULTING HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY
START WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN A WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20
TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA

000
FXUS62 KILM 250642
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
242 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS
OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED
INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY
SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

A LOOK AT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING COMPARED TO RECORD
LOWS FOR MAY 25TH WILL BE COVERED IN THE DAYBREAK AFD UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND
HELPS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS
WILL PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING
TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
AROUND 50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MINS FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NNW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY MID
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/SW AFTER 18Z WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
INHIBIT CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. THE VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER
OUR AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME CALM...
BUT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BUMPY SEAS IN PART TO CHOPPY NORTH WIND-
WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY...AS WINDS BECOME NW-WNW AND EASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP SEAS A BIT
PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONGER WAVE-PERIOD PORTION OF THE WAVE
SPECTRUM IS IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND-SURGE MAY
BRING WINDS TO 13-17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...1-2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES
COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/MJC

000
FXUS62 KILM 250534 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AIRMASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THUS...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE TEMPERED BY A MAINLY LIGHT NORTH WIND.
DEWPOINTS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THUS...THERE IS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD LOWS AND WE ARE INDEED FORECASTING
RECORD LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY NOT
FULLY REALIZE THE CHILL OF THIS AIRMASS...AT LEAST TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A FULLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AND THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN
LINE WITH CONSENSUS.

THE RECORD LOW AT ILM...50 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 48.
THE RECORD LOW AT FLO...48 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 47.
THE RECORD LOW AT CRE...47 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 49.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND
HELPS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS
WILL PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING
TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
AROUND 50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MINS FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NNW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY MID
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/SW AFTER 18Z WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
INHIBIT CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. THE VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER
OUR AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME CALM...
BUT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NW...DRY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON NORTH WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT...BUT UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE
GREATEST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/8

000
FXUS62 KRAH 250533
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
132 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRID
00004000
AY...

...NEAR-RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN CHILLY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED
AT THE MAJORITY OF THE OBSERVATIONS SITES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
NEAR-RECORD LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR AREA STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL...UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND BE POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DUE TO THE
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A
BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S....A NW FLOW WILL
EXIST ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  SPREAD
SEWD INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST
MODEL HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS...THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS VERSUS THE NE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 10-20M BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID=UPPER 70S...AND 75-80 MONDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
DUE TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO
APPROACH/CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THIS FEATURE HAS YET TO DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TO OUR NW (MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED MID-UPPER FLOW...OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION VERSUS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AND SEE HOW THE SCENARIO EVOLVES MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE SW....SENDING THICKNESSES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH-GREAT LAKES...DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL ACT
AS A CAP OR LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THU-FRI. THE WARMING AIR MASS WILL SEND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INTO THE 1415-1420M RANGE...ABOUT 15M ABOVE
NORMAL. POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE SE U.S. SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL....WITH TEMPS
AROUND 90 PROBABLE THU-FRI. WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S FOR NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAYS 7/8.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION
AND PROMOTE A HIGH CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL AVERAGE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY...BUT
WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 8-11 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18
KTS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD TO
INCREASING BUT THIN CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTINUED CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING...MAINLY
AT KRWI. LIGHT FOG...OR LOW STRATUS AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN INCREASINGLY MOIST RETURN FLOW WED MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

FAY                           46 / 1967           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 250532
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ABOVE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AIRMASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THUS...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE TEMPERED BY A MAINLY LIGHT NORTH WIND.
DEWPOINTS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THUS...THERE IS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD LOWS AND WE ARE INDEED FORECASTING
RECORD LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY NOT
FULLY REALIZE THE CHILL OF THIS AIRMASS...AT LEAST TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A FULLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AND THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN
LINE WITH CONSENSUS.

THE RECORD LOW AT ILM...50 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 48.
THE RECORD LOW AT FLO...48 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 47.
THE RECORD LOW AT CRE...47 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 49.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND
HELPS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS
WILL PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING
TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
AROUND 50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MINS FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT NNW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY MID
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/SW AFTER 18Z WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
INHIBIT CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. THE VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER
OUR AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME CALM...
BUT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NW...DRY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON NORTH WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT...BUT UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE
GREATEST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/8

000
FXUS62 KMHX 250424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1224 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ABOUT
TO MOVE OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHT FIELD TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NC.
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CIRCULATE A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AIDING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO RECORD/NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD
LOW FOR 5/25 IS 46 IN 1967)...TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN A WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25
KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 4-6 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/JME/CQD/LEP

000
FXUS62 KILM 250223
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING COOL
AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS ON
MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AIRMASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THUS...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE TEMPERED BY A MAINLY LIGHT NORTH WIND.
DEWPOINTS...INDICATIVE OF THE
00004000
 VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THUS...THERE IS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD LOWS AND WE ARE INDEED FORECASTING
RECORD LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY NOT
FULLY REALIZE THE CHILL OF THIS AIRMASS...AT LEAST TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A FULLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AND THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN
LINE WITH CONSENSUS.

THE RECORD LOW AT ILM...50 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 48.
THE RECORD LOW AT FLO...48 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 47.
THE RECORD LOW AT CRE...47 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 49.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND
HELPS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS
WILL PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING
TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
AROUND 50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MINS FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH NNW WINDS AOB 10 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CLOUD COVER ON
SATURDAY. N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AFTER 18Z...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NW...DRY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON NORTH WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT...BUT UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE
GREATEST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 250205
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IMPACTED THE
REGION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING SUBSIDENCE AND CAA. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AND WILL LIKELY MODERATE AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND ERODE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT STAYING A BIT ELEVATED
WITH A PRETTY DECENT GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...POSSIBLY DROPPING AT OR BELOW PREVIOUS
RECORDS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD LOW FOR 5/25 IS
46 IN 1967)...TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. NW WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 18-20 KT AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY BUT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-5FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...4-6FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-6FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...WITH 7FT SETS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-
FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN WATERS INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/CQD/LEP

000
FXUS62 KRAH 250119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...

...NEAR-RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN CHILLY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED
AT THE MAJORITY OF THE OBSERVATIONS SITES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT
NEAR-RECORD LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR AREA STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL...UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND BE POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DUE TO THE
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A
BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S....A NW FLOW WILL
EXIST ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  SPREAD
SEWD INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST
MODEL HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS...THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS VERSUS THE NE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 10-20M BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID=UPPER 70S...AND 75-80 MONDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
DUE TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO
APPROACH/CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THIS FEATURE HAS YET TO DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TO OUR NW (MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED MID-UPPER FLOW...OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION VERSUS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AND SEE HOW THE SCENARIO EVOLVES MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE SW....SENDING THICKNESSES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH-GREAT LAKES...DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL ACT
AS A CAP OR LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THU-FRI. THE WARMING AIR MASS WILL SEND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INTO THE 1415-1420M RANGE...ABOUT 15M ABOVE
NORMAL. POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE SE U.S. SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL....WITH TEMPS
AROUND 90 PROBABLE THU-FRI. WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S FOR NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAYS 7/8.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NWLY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

FAY                           46 / 1967           44 / 1988

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL/NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL/NP
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 250054
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
854 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING COOL
AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS ON
MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AIRMASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THUS...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE TEMPERED BY A MAINLY LIGHT NORTH WIND.
DEWPOINTS...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THUS...THERE IS PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR RECORD LOWS AND WE ARE INDEED FORECASTING
RECORD LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY NOT
FULLY REALIZE THE CHILL OF THIS AIRMASS...AT LEAST TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A FULLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SO LOWS MAY END UP
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE ARE FORECASTING MID AND
UPPER 40S FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT.

THE RECORD LOW AT ILM...50 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 48.
THE RECORD LOW AT FLO...48 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 47.
T
00004000
HE RECORD LOW AT CRE...47 AND WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 49.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND
HELPS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS
WILL PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING
TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
AROUND 50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
MINS FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH NNW WINDS AOB 10 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CLOUD COVER ON
SATURDAY. N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AFTER 18Z...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NW...DRY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
WATERS ON NORTH WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT...BUT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE LONGEST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 242344
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ATTM WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL
RESULT IN SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST...
THUS WITH DECREASING PRES GRADIENT...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WIND...AND
COLDER AIRMASS WHICH HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO NEAR-RECORD LOWS...REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR AREA STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL...UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND BE POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DUE TO THE
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A
BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S....A NW FLOW WILL
EXIST ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  SPREAD
SEWD INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST
MODEL HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS...THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS VERSUS THE NE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 10-20M BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID=UPPER 70S...AND 75-80 MONDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
DUE TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO
APPROACH/CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THIS FEATURE HAS YET TO DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TO OUR NW (MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED MID-UPPER FLOW...OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION VERSUS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AND SEE HOW THE SCENARIO EVOLVES MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE SW....SENDING THICKNESSES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH-GREAT LAKES...DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL ACT
AS A CAP OR LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THU-FRI. THE WARMING AIR MASS WILL SEND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INTO THE 1415-1420M RANGE...ABOUT 15M ABOVE
NORMAL. POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE SE U.S. SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL....WITH TEMPS
AROUND 90 PROBABLE THU-FRI. WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S FOR NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAYS 7/8.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NWLY WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL/NP
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KILM 242324
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING COOL
AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS ON
MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3:30 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FORCING DEWPOINTS
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN. A FEW TINY SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE MOVED SE ACROSS PENDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND THEN OFFSHORE. THAT IS
ABOUT IT FOR THE DAY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SWING OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING AS COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. ASSOCIATED CU
FIELD WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE FACTORS COME
INTO PLAY.

EXPECT A DRY AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST MINIMUMS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50 LBT-45
FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55. SOME OR ALL OF THESE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND HELPS
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL
PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING TO
10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND
50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MINS
FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH NNW WINDS AOB 10 KTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CLOUD COVER ON
SATURDAY. N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AFTER 18Z...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS BUT HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF
OUR MARINE ZONES IN ITS PLACE. NORTH TO NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT 2
TO 4 FT SEAS. AMZ254 OFFSHORE OF HORRY COUNTY WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO
4 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES
FOR THIS ZONE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

000
FXUS62 KMHX 242305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BUT SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING THRU THE EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD LOW FOR 5/25
IS 46 IN 1967)...WITH LOW 50S NEARER THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WTIH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIG
00004000
HT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. NW WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 18-20 KT AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY BUT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N SAT
AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 242004
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE PUSHING ACROSS AREA
WITH TEMPS INTO MID 50S NRN OBX. SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NE
1/3 OF AREA...THEN CLEARING EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SHRT
WV PASSAGE. MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS INLAND (KEWN
RECORD LOW FOR 5/25 IS 46 IN 1967) OF MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WTIH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA BUT STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CU/SCU AND SCT SHWRS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF SHRT WV
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF FCST PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
POST-FRONT CAA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL
PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN
WATERS INTO SATURDAY. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PKG WAS TO ISSUE
SCA FOR SRN WATERS AS WELL...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND SEAS TO
6 FT OUTER PORTIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S
TO N SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD

000
FXUS62 KILM 241952
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING COOL
AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS ON
MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3:30 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FORCING DEWPOINTS
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN. A FEW TINY SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE MOVED SE ACROSS PENDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND THEN OFFSHORE. THAT IS
ABOUT IT FOR THE DAY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SWING OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING AS COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. ASSOCIATED CU
FIELD WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE FACTORS COME
INTO PLAY.

EXPECT A DRY AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST MINIMUMS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO
AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50 LBT-45
FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55. SOME OR ALL OF THESE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY.
STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND HELPS
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL
PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING TO
10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND
50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MINS
FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA
ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH
WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY AROUND THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AND DIURNAL CONDITIONS
SET UP. SATURDAY...A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
MODERATE NORTH WIND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS BUT HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF
OUR MARINE ZONES IN ITS PLACE. NORTH TO NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT 2
TO 4 FT SEAS. AMZ254 OFFSHORE OF HORRY COUNTY WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO
4 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES
FOR THIS ZONE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH
MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241915
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ATTM WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL
RESULT IN SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST...
THUS WITH DECREASING PRES GRADIENT...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WIND...AND
COLDER AIRMASS WHICH HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD
FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO NEAR-RECORD LOWS...REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR AREA STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL...UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND BE POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DUE TO THE
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A
BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S....A NW FLOW WILL
EXIST ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  SPREAD
SEWD INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST
MODEL HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS...THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS VERSUS THE NE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 10-20M BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID=UPPER 70S...AND 75-80 MONDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
DUE TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO
APPROACH/CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THIS FEATURE HAS YET TO DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TO OUR NW (MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED MID-UPPER FLOW...OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION VERSUS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AND SEE HOW THE SCENARIO EVOLVES MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVE
00004000
L FLOW BECOME MORE SW....SENDING THICKNESSES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH-GREAT LAKES...DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL ACT
AS A CAP OR LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THU-FRI. THE WARMING AIR MASS WILL SEND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INTO THE 1415-1420M RANGE...ABOUT 15M ABOVE
NORMAL. POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE SE U.S. SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL....WITH TEMPS
AROUND 90 PROBABLE THU-FRI. WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S FOR NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAYS 7/8.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...

A BAND OF BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS GREATER THAN 4K FT...ALONG WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SPRINKLES...IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF I-95. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. DRIER AIR AS NOTED BY 20+ DEG DWPT DEPRESSIONS IS FOUND BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE OTHER
MAIN CONCERN IS GUSTY NW WINDS. THROUGH SUNSET...LOOK FOR NW WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S. AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH 18Z
SAT...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...NP/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK PER
PREV DISCUSSION (INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE). THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE INCREASING THE NW WINDS A LITTLE SOONER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AVG BL WIND IN THE 24-28KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN THE GSO OBSERVED
SOUNDING. WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...DEEP
MIXING IS UNDERWAY AND WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SFC GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES.  OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NE ZONES ARE ADDRESSED IN CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES
THERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR
CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CENTERED OVER VA AND NORTHERN NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA WILL MOSTLY
OFFSET THIS FORCING...PER DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS OVER
CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL THROUGH AROUND 18Z...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER VA. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY ONWARD...AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT
AND ADDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...ACCOUNTING FOR CLEAR BUT CAA MIXING OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORT NEAR RECORD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED (CALM) OUTLYING AREAS.

CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING...BEFORE
YIELDING TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS...WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LOWS GENERAL 45 TO 50 DEGREES...WARMEST TRIAD WHERE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE SOONEST (LATE SAT EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC-SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND BE POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DUE TO THE
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH A
BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S....A NW FLOW WILL
EXIST ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  SPREAD
SEWD INTO OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST
MODEL HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS...THESE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS VERSUS THE NE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 10-20M BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID=UPPER 70S...AND 75-80 MONDAY. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE MILD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
DUE TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS. MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO
APPROACH/CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THIS FEATURE HAS YET TO DEVELOP SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TO OUR NW (MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS FEATURE IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BASED ON EXPECTED MID-UPPER FLOW...OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION VERSUS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POP AND SEE HOW THE SCENARIO EVOLVES MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE SW....SENDING THICKNESSES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH-GREAT LAKES...DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH WILL ACT
AS A CAP OR LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO WEDNESDAY WITH POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THU-FRI. THE WARMING AIR MASS WILL SEND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES INTO THE 1415-1420M RANGE...ABOUT 15M ABOVE
NORMAL. POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE SE U.S. SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL....WITH TEMPS
AROUND 90 PROBABLE THU-FRI. WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S FOR NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAYS 7/8.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...

A BAND OF BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS GREATER THAN 4K FT...ALONG WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SPRINKLES...IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF I-95. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. DRIER AIR AS NOTED BY 20+ DEG DWPT DEPRESSIONS IS FOUND BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE OTHER
MAIN CONCERN IS GUSTY NW WINDS. THROUGH SUNSET...LOOK FOR NW WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S. AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH 18Z
SAT...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...NP/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...NP/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH

000
FXUS62 KMHX 241846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY NE 1/3 OF AREA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA BUT STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CU/SCU AND SCT SHWRS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF SHRT WV
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF FCST PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
POST-FRONT CAA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/JME/CQD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 241746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY NE 1/3 OF AREA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR
00001BEC
 SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA BUT STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CU/SCU AND SCT SHWRS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF SHRT WV
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF FCST PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
POST-FRONT CAA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM

000
FXUS62 KILM 241729
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
129 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COMING WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM FRIDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA HINT AT
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IF NOT...WILL BE REVISING FORECAST TO TAKE ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...AS MODIFIED...FOLLOWS BELOW:

EAST-BOUND COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
STEADILY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST ZONES MAY COMBINE
TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DRYING AND CLEARING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
BY DAYBREAK MAY APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY
25TH ARE ILM-50 LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START SATURDAY WILL
TURN OUT PLEASANT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW HOWEVER KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CUTOFF UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED
CYCLONE NEAR NANTUCKET. AS THE CAA SHUTS OFF TO NEUTRAL AND A SMALL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. VERY WEAK WAA ON SUNDAY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS AS WELL
AS GENERATE A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT 5 DEG
SHY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDS OUT THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO START NEXT WEEK ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKLY ON MONDAY AND HIGHS MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEG BELOW
CLIMO. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLE TOO IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT BUILDING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST N
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THAT IS...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SHOULD THUS HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT
ON THE WARMTH...MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE COAST. THE CAPPING EFFECT
OF THE THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY AROUND THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AND DIURNAL CONDITIONS
SET UP. SATURDAY...A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
MODERATE NORTH WIND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. KEEPING 
00004000
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS STILL AT SUB-
ADVISORY LEVELS NOW BUT HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NOW THAT THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HOISTED FOR ALL OF OUR SE NC AND NE SC
WATERS FROM 3PM-9PM TODAY...TO ADDRESS 25 KT NW WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY WILL HOLD 3-4
FEET MOST WATERS BUT UP TO 5-6 FT ALONG OUTER PORTION SUBJECTED TO
LONGER FETCH BUILD-UP. TSTMS MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM CURRENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS NNW 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM- 8PM AS
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE HAVE THE
GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION. SEAS WILL TAKE ON A
BUMPY CHARACTER TODAY AS RESIDUAL SE WAVE ENERGY BORN FROM
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTENDS WITH INCREASING WIND-WAVES
OPPOSING FROM THE NW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE N TO KEEP A N
TO NW WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT DUE TO A
FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT. THE STORM HELPING TO DRIVE THE HIGH WILL BE
ALL THE WAY UP NEAR NANTUCKET ON SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA CANADA INTO SUNDAY. SOME BACKSWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS AND NOT MUCH
SHOULD MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY SMALL SEAS TO THE TUNE OF 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SMALLEST WAVES OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS MAXED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY ESTABLISHES CENTER OFF THE COAST. ITS PROXIMITY
TO THE LANDMASS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE OF 2 FT OR LESS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WAVE. THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES
LARGER INTO TUESDAY MAKING ITS CENTER FARTHER WAY BUT LEADING TO
LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCAL WIND FLOW. DEEP AND LONG FETCH EASTERLY
SWELL WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL
LIKELY START TO GENERATE SOME SWELL ENERGY INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
NOT UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241718 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK PER
PREV DISCUSSION (INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE). THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE INCREASING THE NW WINDS A LITTLE SOONER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AVG BL WIND IN THE 24-28KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN THE GSO OBSERVED
SOUNDING. WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...DEEP
MIXING IS UNDERWAY AND WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SFC GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES.  OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NE ZONES ARE ADDRESSED IN CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES
THERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR
CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CENTERED OVER VA AND NORTHERN NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA WILL MOSTLY
OFFSET THIS FORCING...PER DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS OVER
CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL THROUGH AROUND 18Z...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER VA. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY ONWARD...AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT
AND ADDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...ACCOUNTING FOR CLEAR BUT CAA MIXING OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORT NEAR RECORD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED (CALM) OUTLYING AREAS.

CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING...BEFORE
YIELDING TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS...WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LOWS GENERAL 45 TO 50 DEGREES...WARMEST TRIAD WHERE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE SOONEST (LATE SAT EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OVERHEAD ON ITS
WAY OFFSHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING IN ALOFT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH INSOLATION
WARMING THE AIRMASS A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80
AFTER A MORNING LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING TREND INTO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT EACH DAY...FROM THE LOWER
80S TUESDAY TO THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EACH DAY. WE WILL BE UNDER THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEEDED WHICH WILL LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO A
DIURNAL CYCLE. A POTENTIAL WILD CARD WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TO BE HERDED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...

A BAND OF BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS GREATER THAN 4K FT...ALONG WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SPRINKLES...IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF I-95. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. DRIER AIR AS NOTED BY 20+ DEG DWPT DEPRESSIONS IS FOUND BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE OTHER
MAIN CONCERN IS GUSTY NW WINDS. THROUGH SUNSET...LOOK FOR NW WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S. AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH 18Z
SAT...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...NP/MWS
CLIMATE...MLM

000
FXUS62 KILM 241624
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COMING WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM FRIDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA HINT AT
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IF NOT...WILL BE REVISING FORECAST TO TAKE ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE PICTURE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...AS MODIFIED...FOLLOWS BELOW:

EAST-BOUND COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
STEADILY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST ZONES MAY COMBINE
TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DRYING AND CLEARING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
BY DAYBREAK MAY APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY
25TH ARE ILM-50 LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START SATURDAY WILL
TURN OUT PLEASANT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW HOWEVER KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CUTOFF UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED
CYCLONE NEAR NANTUCKET. AS THE CAA SHUTS OFF TO NEUTRAL AND A SMALL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. VERY WEAK WAA ON SUNDAY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS AS WELL
AS GENERATE A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT 5 DEG
SHY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDS OUT THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO START NEXT WEEK ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKLY ON MONDAY AND HIGHS MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEG BELOW
CLIMO. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLE TOO IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT BUILDING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST N
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THAT IS...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SHOULD THUS HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT
ON THE WARMTH...MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE COAST. THE CAPPING EFFECT
OF THE THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT
ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY HOLD OFF THE GUSTINESS UNTIL MIDDAY...AS
THAT IS WHEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN ERNEST. A CLEAR AND
CRISP NIGHT IN STORE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS DROPPING IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS STILL AT SUB-
ADVISORY LEVELS NOW BUT HAVE PICKED UP A BIT NOW THAT THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HOISTED FOR ALL OF OUR SE NC AND NE SC
WATERS FROM 3PM-9PM TODAY...TO ADDRESS 25 KT NW WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY WILL HOLD 3-4
FEET MOST WATERS BUT UP TO 5-6 FT ALONG OUTER PORTION SUBJECTED TO
LONGER FETCH BUILD-UP. TSTMS MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM CURRENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS NNW 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM- 8PM AS
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE HAVE THE
GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION. SEAS WILL TAKE ON A
BUMPY CHARACTER TODAY AS RESIDUAL SE WAVE ENERGY BORN FROM
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTENDS WITH INCREASING WIND-WAVES
OPPOSING FROM THE NW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE N TO KEEP A N
TO NW WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT DUE TO A
FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT. THE STORM HELPING TO DRIVE THE HIGH WILL BE
ALL THE WAY UP NEAR NANTUCKET ON SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING
INTO NOVA SCOTIA CANADA INTO SUNDAY. SOME BACKSWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS AND NOT MUCH SHOULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY SMALL SEAS
TO THE TUNE OF 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SMALLEST
WAVES OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS MAXED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY ESTABLISHES CENTER OFF THE COAST. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LANDMASS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE OF 2 FT OR LESS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WAVE. THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES LARGER
INTO TUESDAY MAKING ITS CENTER FARTHER WAY BUT LEADING TO LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOCAL WIND FLOW. DEEP AND LONG FETCH EASTERLY SWELL WILL
BE GETTING ESTABLISHED INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY START
TO GENERATE SOME SWELL ENERGY INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB

000
FXUS62 KMHX 241514
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1112 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH LATE MORNING
UPDATE. COLD FRONT BNDRY ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHOWERS OVER FCST AREA. FCST ON TRACK WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER
NE 1/3 OF AREA. TEMPS WILL RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGS OVER CURRENT
READINGS...BUT CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN MID 70S.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS IN
00004000
LAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AN EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 13Z.
EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY
THEN PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CURRENT LULL IN WINDS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH POST-FRONTAL NW CAA SURGE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER AREA DURING THE AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241432 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK PER
PREV DISCUSSION (INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE). THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE INCREASING THE NW WINDS A LITTLE SOONER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AVG BL WIND IN THE 24-28KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN THE GSO OBSERVED
SOUNDING. WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...DEEP
MIXING IS UNDERWAY AND WE`RE ALREADY SEEING SFC GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES.  OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NE ZONES ARE ADDRESSED IN CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES
THERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR
CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CENTERED OVER VA AND NORTHERN NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA WILL MOSTLY
OFFSET THIS FORCING...PER DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS OVER
CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL THROUGH AROUND 18Z...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER VA. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY ONWARD...AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT
AND ADDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...ACCOUNTING FOR CLEAR BUT CAA MIXING OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORT NEAR RECORD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED (CALM) OUTLYING AREAS.

CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING...BEFORE
YIELDING TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS...WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LOWS GENERAL 45 TO 50 DEGREES...WARMEST TRIAD WHERE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE SOONEST (LATE SAT EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OVERHEAD ON ITS
WAY OFFSHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING IN ALOFT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH INSOLATION
WARMING THE AIRMASS A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80
AFTER A MORNING LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING TREND INTO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT EACH DAY...FROM THE LOWER
80S TUESDAY TO THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EACH DAY. WE WILL BE UNDER THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEEDED WHICH WILL LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO A
DIURNAL CYCLE. A POTENTIAL WILD CARD WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TO BE HERDED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES TODAY...AFTER
A PERIOD OF LINGERING 7-9 THOUSAND FT CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDDAY AROUND KRWI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-15Z...AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RUSHES INTO THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MLM

000
FXUS62 KILM 241329
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
929 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COMING WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM FRIDAY...ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND A LOOK AT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONFIRMS EARLIER HYPOTHESIS THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS POP UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE 60S MOST PLACES SO THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GENERATE A CU FIELD AS THE DAY WARMS UP. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EAST-BOUND COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE COAST AT 10Z. UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE MAY ARRIVE OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON DESPITE DROPPING DEWPOINTS...AND
WILL RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z IN PEAK HEATING.
TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS OF RH DO SHOW THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST ZONES TO
SET-OFF A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN 1PM AND 4PM.

DAYTIME COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH MINIMUM TEMPS STARTING OFF
BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES WILL BRING A LOW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
TODAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB 15 DEGREES F OR LESS FROM
SUNRISE TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SHAPED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AND 80-83 ALONG
OUR COASTS AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT IS
SLIGHTLY GREATER. DRYING AND CLEARING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MAY APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES.
RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50 LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND
CRE-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START SATURDAY WILL
TURN OUT PLEASANT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW HOWEVER KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CUTOFF UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED
CYCLONE NEAR NANTUCKET. AS THE CAA SHUTS OFF TO NEUTRAL AND A SMALL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. VERY WEAK WAA ON SUNDAY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS AS WELL
AS GENERATE A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT 5 DEG
SHY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDS OUT THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO START NEXT WEEK ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKLY ON MONDAY AND HIGHS MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEG BELOW
CLIMO. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLE TOO IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT BUILDING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST N
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THAT IS...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SHOULD THUS HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT
ON THE WARMTH...MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE COAST. THE CAPPING EFFECT
OF THE THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT
ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY HOLD OFF THE GUSTINESS UNTIL MIDDAY...AS
THAT IS WHEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN ERNEST. A CLEAR AND
CRISP NIGHT IN STORE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS DROPPING IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM FRIDAY...KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS STILL
AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS NOW BUT SHOULD PICK UP NOW THAT THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HOISTED FOR ALL OF OUR SE NC AND NE SC
WATERS FROM 3PM-9PM TODAY...TO ADDRESS 25 KT NW WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY WILL HOLD 3-4
FEET MOST WATERS BUT UP TO 5-6 FT ALONG OUTER PORTION SUBJECTED TO
LONGER FETCH BUILD-UP. TSTMS MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM CURRENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS NNW 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM- 8PM AS
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE HAVE THE
GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION. SEAS WILL TAKE ON A
BUMPY CHARACTER TODAY AS RESIDUAL SE WAVE ENERGY BORN FROM
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTENDS WITH INCREASING WIND-WAVES
OPPOSING FROM THE NW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE N TO KEEP A N
TO NW WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT DUE TO A
FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT. THE STORM HELPING TO DRIVE THE HIGH WILL BE
ALL THE WAY UP NEAR NANTUCKET ON SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING
INTO NOVA SCOTIA CANADA INTO SUNDAY. SOME BACKSWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS AND NOT MUCH SHOULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY SMALL SEAS
TO THE TUNE OF 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SMALLEST
WAVES OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS MAXED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY ESTABLISHES CENTER OFF THE COAST. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LANDMASS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE OF 2 FT OR LESS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WAVE. THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES LARGER
INTO TUESDAY MAKING ITS CENTER FARTHER WAY BUT LEADING TO LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOCAL WIND FLOW. DEEP AND LONG FETCH EASTERLY SWELL WILL
BE GETTING ESTABLISHED INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY START
TO GENERATE SOME SWELL ENERGY INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241130 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CENTERED OVER VA AND NORTHERN NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH T
00004000
HIS FEATURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA WILL MOSTLY
OFFSET THIS FORCING...PER DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS OVER
CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL THROUGH AROUND 18Z...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER VA. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY ONWARD...AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT
AND ADDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...ACCOUNTING FOR CLEAR BUT CAA MIXING OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORT NEAR RECORD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED (CALM) OUTLYING AREAS.

CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING...BEFORE
YIELDING TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS...WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LOWS GENERAL 45 TO 50 DEGREES...WARMEST TRIAD WHERE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE SOONEST (LATE SAT EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OVERHEAD ON ITS
WAY OFFSHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING IN ALOFT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH INSOLATION
WARMING THE AIRMASS A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80
AFTER A MORNING LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING TREND INTO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT EACH DAY...FROM THE LOWER
80S TUESDAY TO THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EACH DAY. WE WILL BE UNDER THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEEDED WHICH WILL LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO A
DIURNAL CYCLE. A POTENTIAL WILD CARD WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TO BE HERDED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES TODAY...AFTER
A PERIOD OF LINGERING 7-9 THOUSAND FT CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDDAY AROUND KRWI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-15Z...AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RUSHES INTO THE
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MLM

000
FXUS62 KILM 241059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COMING WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM FRIDAY...EAST-BOUND COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE COAST
AT 10Z. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE MAY ARRIVE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON DESPITE DROPPING DEWPOINTS...AND
WILL RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z IN PEAK HEATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS EARLY
MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS SLATED TO CLEAR THE COAST AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR AND BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TODAY. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING. TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS OF
RH SHOW THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST ZONES TO SET-OFF A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN
1PM-4PM.

THE DAYTIME COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH MINIMUM TEMPS STARTING OFF
BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES...WILL BRING A LOW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE TODAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB 15 DEGREES F OR
LESS FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
SHAPED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES AND 80-83 ALONG OUR COASTS AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. DRYING AND CLEARING
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MAY
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50
LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START SATURDAY WILL
TURN OUT PLEASANT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW HOWEVER KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CUTOFF UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED
CYCLONE NEAR NANTUCKET. AS THE CAA SHUTS OFF TO NEUTRAL AND A SMALL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. VERY WEAK WAA ON SUNDAY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS AS WELL
AS GENERATE A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT 5 DEG
SHY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDS OUT THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO START NEXT WEEK ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKLY ON MONDAY AND HIGHS MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEG BELOW
CLIMO. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLE TOO IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT BUILDING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST N
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THAT IS...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SHOULD THUS HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT
ON THE WARMTH...MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE COAST. THE CAPPING EFFECT
OF THE THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRONT HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT
ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY HOLD OFF THE GUSTINESS UNTIL MIDDAY...AS
THAT IS WHEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN ERNEST. A CLEAR AND
CRISP NIGHT IN STORE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS DROPPING IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HOISTED FOR ALL
OF OUR SE NC AND NE SC WATERS FROM 3PM-9PM TODAY...TO ADDRESS
25 KT NW WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS
GENERALLY WILL HOLD 3-4 FEET MOST WATERS BUT UP TO 5-6 FT ALONG
OUTER PORTION SUBJECTED TO LONGER FETCH BUILD-UP. TSTMS MAY ALSO
BE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS NNW 15-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM- 8PM AS THE DEPARTING FRONT AND ENCROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE HAVE THE GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION.
SEAS WILL TAKE ON A BUMPY CHARACTER TODAY AS RESIDUAL SE WAVE
ENERGY BORN FROM OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTENDS WITH
INCREASING WIND-WAVES OPPOSING FROM THE NW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE N TO KEEP A N
TO NW WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT DUE TO A
FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT. THE STORM HELPING TO DRIVE THE HIGH WILL BE
ALL THE WAY UP NEAR NANTUCKET ON SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING
INTO NOVA SCOTIA CANADA INTO SUNDAY. SOME BACKSWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS AND NOT MUCH SHOULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY SMALL SEAS
TO THE TUNE OF 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SMALLEST
WAVES OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS MAXED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY ESTABLISHES CENTER OFF THE COAST. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LANDMASS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE OF 2 FT OR LESS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WAVE. THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES LARGER
INTO TUESDAY MAKING ITS CENTER FARTHER WAY BUT LEADING TO LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOCAL WIND FLOW. DEEP AND LONG FETCH EASTERLY SWELL WILL
BE GETTING ESTABLISHED INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY START
TO GENERATE SOME SWELL ENERGY INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43

000
FXUS62 KMHX 241040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AN EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 13Z.
EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY
THEN PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA

000
FXUS62 KILM 241021
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COMING WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM FRIDAY...EAST-BOUND COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE COAST
AT 10Z. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE MAY ARRIVE
OVER OUR FORECAST A
00003194
REA BY AFTERNOON DESPITE DROPPING DEWPOINTS...AND
WILL RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z IN PEAK HEATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS EARLY
MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS SLATED TO CLEAR THE COAST AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AIR AND BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TODAY. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING. TIME-HEIGHT PLOTS OF
RH SHOW THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST ZONES TO SET-OFF A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN
1PM-4PM.

THE DAYTIME COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH MINIMUM TEMPS STARTING OFF
BETWEEN 65-70 DEGREES...WILL BRING A LOW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE TODAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB 15 DEGREES F OR
LESS FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
SHAPED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES AND 80-83 ALONG OUR COASTS AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. DRYING AND CLEARING
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MAY
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50
LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START SATURDAY WILL
TURN OUT PLEASANT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THESE
WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE N TO NW HOWEVER KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO CUTOFF UPPER LOW/OCCLUDED
CYCLONE NEAR NANTUCKET. AS THE CAA SHUTS OFF TO NEUTRAL AND A SMALL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURS SAT NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. VERY WEAK WAA ON SUNDAY TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS AS WELL
AS GENERATE A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL LOOKING AT ABOUT 5 DEG
SHY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDS OUT THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO START NEXT WEEK ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKLY ON MONDAY AND HIGHS MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEG BELOW
CLIMO. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLE TOO IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT BUILDING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH BUT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST N
OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THAT IS...THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MINIMIZED MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SHOULD THUS HAVE A MODERATING EFFECT
ON THE WARMTH...MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE COAST. THE CAPPING EFFECT
OF THE THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR VSBYS AND 1-2KFT CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TONIGHT AT KLBT/KILM WHERE CIGS/VSBYS BEGAN
DROPPING THE EARLIEST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA WITH COLD FROPA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
REACH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 09Z AND THE COASTAL SITES BY 12Z. LIGHT SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY. STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND SCT SOON AFTER
12Z. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE AFTN HOURS ALONG
WITH FEW/SCT CU. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 621 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS HOISTED FOR ALL
OF OUR SE NC AND NE SC WATERS FROM 3PM-9PM TODAY...TO ADDRESS
25 KT NW WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS
GENERALLY WILL HOLD 3-4 FEET MOST WATERS BUT UP TO 5-6 FT ALONG
OUTER PORTION SUBJECTED TO LONGER FETCH BUILD-UP. TSTMS MAY ALSO
BE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. PEAK WINDS NNW 15-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 PM- 8PM AS THE DEPARTING FRONT AND ENCROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE HAVE THE GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION.
SEAS WILL TAKE ON A BUMPY CHARACTER TODAY AS RESIDUAL SE WAVE
ENERGY BORN FROM OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTENDS WITH
INCREASING WIND-WAVES OPPOSING FROM THE NW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE N TO KEEP A N
TO NW WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE CAPPED AT 10KT DUE TO A
FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT. THE STORM HELPING TO DRIVE THE HIGH WILL BE
ALL THE WAY UP NEAR NANTUCKET ON SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING
INTO NOVA SCOTIA CANADA INTO SUNDAY. SOME BACKSWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY CAPE HATTERAS AND NOT MUCH SHOULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY SMALL SEAS
TO THE TUNE OF 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SMALLEST
WAVES OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT IS MAXED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY ESTABLISHES CENTER OFF THE COAST. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LANDMASS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KT OR LESS AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF SWELL ENERGY THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVE OF 2 FT OR LESS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WAVE. THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES LARGER
INTO TUESDAY MAKING ITS CENTER FARTHER WAY BUT LEADING TO LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOCAL WIND FLOW. DEEP AND LONG FETCH EASTERLY SWELL WILL
BE GETTING ESTABLISHED INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY START
TO GENERATE SOME SWELL ENERGY INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/BJR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. DESPITE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT CENTERED OVER VA AND NORTHERN NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA WILL MOSTLY
OFFSET THIS FORCING...PER DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS OVER
CENTRAL NC. AS SUCH...LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL THROUGH AROUND 18Z...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER VA. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY ONWARD...AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT
AND ADDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...ACCOUNTING FOR CLEAR BUT CAA MIXING OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORT NEAR RECORD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED (CALM) OUTLYING AREAS.

CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING...BEFORE
YIELDING TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS...WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LOWS GENERAL 45 TO 50 DEGREES...WARMEST TRIAD WHERE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE SOONEST (LATE SAT EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OVERHEAD ON ITS
WAY OFFSHORE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING IN ALOFT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH INSOLATION
WARMING THE AIRMASS A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80
AFTER A MORNING LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING TREND INTO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT EACH DAY...FROM THE LOWER
80S TUESDAY TO THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EACH DAY. WE WILL BE UNDER THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEEDED WHICH WILL LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO A
DIURNAL CYCLE. A POTENTIAL WILD CARD WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TO BE HERDED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...

JUST A LITTLE LIGHT AND INSIGNIFICANT RAIN REMAINS FROM EARLIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND THIS TOO SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY/KRDU/KGSO. OTHERWISE...
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT KFAY...KRWI...AND
PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS KRDU THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOME LINGERING 7-9 THOUSAND FT CLOUD
COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED...WITH OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY AND
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: A STRETCH OF PROLONGED VFR CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE 25TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD
MIN TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

RECORD MIN TEMP/YEAR SET      MAY 25TH            MAY 26TH

RDU                           43 / 1967           43 / 1979

GSO                           43 / 1956           42 / 1930

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MLM

      
      

  
    
  
  
        US Dept of Commerce
          National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
          National Weather Service
          1325 East West Highway
          Silver Spring, MD 20910
          Page Author:  NWS Internet Services Team
    Disclaimer
      Information Quality
      Credits
      Glossary
0000028A

    Privacy Policy
      Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
      About Us
      Career Opportunities
  

      
    
  

00000000