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000
FXUS64 KHUN 260521 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1221 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 821 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
VEILS OF CI CONTINUE TO STROLL ACROSS THE REGION AND WERE MEASURED
BY THE UAH MIPS CEILOMETER AT 350-400AGL. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING
BRISKLY ESE ACROSS THE SERN CORN BELT WILL MOVE INTO ERN KY/TN/NC
LATE TONIGHT, BUT ANY -RA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NE.
TEMPS ARE SLIDING INTO THE L-M60S IN OUR RURAL VALLEYS, WHILE
HOVERING NEAR 70F IN OUR URBAN AREAS. A MODEST RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT IS
ANTICIPATED. A POCKET OF DRIER AIR/LOWER DEW POINTS WERE FOUND ACROSS
NC/NERN AL, AND THIS IS WHERE THE COOLER FORECAST LOWS IN THE M-U40S
WILL BE FOUND. L-M50S WILL BE FOUND MOST OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH
U50S IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AK
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VEILS OF HIGH CI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AK
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 260502 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...[26.06Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MON. SCT
TO BKN THIN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. EXPECT A FEW LOW TO
MID LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY VARIABLE AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS LATE. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
50S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. /13
[REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND]...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22
&&
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...FOR TUESDAY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE
CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A MORE ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS. /16
&&
.AVIATION [26.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. /13
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 260455
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. NOT EXPECTING TO BE AS LOW AS
LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE TEMPERATURES MODERATING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE HIGH DRY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
CALM TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 260329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. NOT EXPECTING TO BE AS LOW AS
LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE TEMPERATURES MODERATING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE HIGH DRY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 260121 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VEILS OF CI CONTINUE TO STROLL ACROSS THE REGION AND WERE MEASURED
BY THE UAH MIPS CEILOMETER AT 350-400AGL. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING
BRISKLY ESE ACROSS THE SERN CORN BELT WILL MOVE INTO ERN KY/TN/NC
LATE TONIGHT, BUT ANY -RA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NE.
TEMPS ARE SLIDING INTO THE L-M60S IN OUR RURAL VALLEYS, WHILE
HOVERING NEAR 70F IN OUR URBAN AREAS. A MODEST RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT IS
ANTICIPATED. A POCKET OF DRIER AIR/LOWER DEW POINTS WERE FOUND ACROSS
NC/NERN AL, AND THIS IS WHERE THE COOLER FORECAST LOWS IN THE M-U40S
WILL BE FOUND. L-M50S WILL BE FOUND MOST OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH
U50S IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AK
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS.
AK
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 252323
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ALABAMA WILL BE ENTERING INTO A PRECIPITATION FREE AND WARM PERIOD
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS REPLACED MY A
MARITIME AIR MASS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH
ALABAMA TO PRODUCE SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 252318 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...[26.00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MON. SCT
TO BKN THIN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. EXPECT A FEW LOW TO
MID LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY VARIABLE AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BECOMING EAST OT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
50S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. /13
[REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND]...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22
&&
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...FOR TUESDAY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE
CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST BUILDS WEST OV
00004000
ER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A MORE ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS. /16
&&
.AVIATION [26.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. /13
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 252259 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS BENEATH A BROAD BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS BEING INDUCED BY A DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IS EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS...AND IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
WAVES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA -- AROUND ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA -- WILL WEAKEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DISTURBANCE TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...LIKELY REACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL COOLING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE BASED ON PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
/PWATS OF 1-1.20 INCHES/...THE WEAK NATURE OF FORCING...NO
DISCERNIBLE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
EVIDENT IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET
SUITE. HOWEVER...IF AN MCS TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO/UPPER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS INDICATED BY SOME NWP
GUIDANCE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GENERALLY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THREATS -- IF STORMS INDEED DEVELOP -- WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD
MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
BY TUESDAY -- DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO
PUSH ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS MID/UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE
WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO
CLOSE OFF. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...MAKING
FOR VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS.
AK
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 252053
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
50S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. /13
[REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND]...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22
&&
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...FOR TUESDAY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE
CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A MORE ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS. /16
&&
.AVIATION [26.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. /13
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 252034
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS BENEATH A BROAD BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS BEING INDUCED BY A DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS IS EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS...AND IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
WAVES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA -- AROUND ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA -- WILL WEAKEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DISTURBANCE TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...LIKELY REACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL COOLING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE BASED ON PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
/PWATS OF 1-1.20 INCHES/...THE WEAK NATURE OF FORCING...NO
DISCERNIBLE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
EVIDENT IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET
SUITE. HOWEVER...IF AN MCS TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO/UPPER
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS INDICATED BY SOME NWP
GUIDANCE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GENERALLY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THREATS -- IF STORMS INDEED DEVELOP -- WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD
MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
BY TUESDAY -- DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO
PUSH ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS MID/UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE
WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO
CLOSE OFF. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND...A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...MAKING
FOR VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 54 84 59 88 / 10 10 10 30
SHOALS 54 84 59 88 / 10 10 20 30
VINEMONT 50 81 55 84 / 10 10 10 30
FAYETTEVILLE 51 81 57 86 / 10 10 10 30
ALBERTVILLE 52 80 57 84 / 10 10 10 30
FORT PAYNE 46 80 53 85 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 251915
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALABAMA WILL BE ENTERING INTO A PRECIPITATION FREE AND WARM PERIOD
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS REPLACED MY A
MARITIME AIR MASS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH
ALABAMA TO PRODUCE SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEGUN
VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS OVER THE STATE... NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
77/GLEASON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GAD
000003E6
SDEN 49 86 53 86 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 51 86 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 54 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 53 88 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 53 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 53 86 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 54 88 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 52 88 57 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 251734 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION (25.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
00004000
EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ONE EACH OVER THE NE AND
NW CONUS...SHIFT EAST...SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST WITH...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TAKES A SE PATH...TO JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. EVEN WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS SLOW
ENOUGH TO MOVE MOISTURE BACK OVER THE FA...ALONG WITH A CAP TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FORMATION. NAM IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...ADVERTISING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OVER THE MARINE AREA. HAVE WENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FA GENERALLY RAIN FREE. FOR
TEMPS...AROUND SEASONAL DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
BELOW DUE TO THE DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH
THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...WITH THIS FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER HAS BROUGHT IN
DRIER AIR OVER THE FA...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH ERC VALUES OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY...FL
RISING ABOVE THE MAGIC 37 MARK...WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG FOR
OKALOOSA TODAY. ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITERIA LEVELS FOR A FL RED FLAG.
INTO THE COMING WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...THEN BUILDS WEST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PROCESS...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ON THE INCREASE.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. A SLIGHT CHANCE...THOUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 86 61 86 64 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 87 66 86 67 85 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 84 67 83 68 82 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 86 54 89 59 88 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 86 56 87 58 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CAMDEN 86 53 88 59 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 89 54 89 58 90 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KHUN 251731 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 930 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
A FINE DAY ON TAP FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND REMNANT WARM FRONT WERE
BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TEXAS HIGH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING...WITH SAN ANTONIO APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE U/L RIDGE WILL KEEP ALL BUT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS WELL
WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS TODAY AFTER THE COOL START. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN A FEW SPOTS. ALSO LOWERED RH VALUES A BIT WITH
OUR NE COUNTIES DIPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT THIS AFTN. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GREEN CONDITIONS...FIRE WX CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
HOWEVER.
ALL IN ALL...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANGES THIS
MORNING.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
15
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 251720
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY
WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE
MAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND RAISED HIGHS MOST AREAS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE STATE.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEGUN
VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS OVER THE STATE... NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 251515
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY
WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE
MAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND RAISED HIGHS MOST AREAS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE STATE.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE
DAY.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 79 49 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 80 51 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 81 54 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 84 53 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 82 53 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 82 52 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 84 55 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 85 52 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 251430 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FINE DAY ON TAP FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND REMNANT WARM FRONT WERE
BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TEXAS HIGH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING...WITH SAN ANTONIO APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE U/L RIDGE WILL KEEP ALL BUT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS WELL
WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS TODAY AFTER THE COOL START. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN A FEW SPOTS. ALSO LOWERED RH VALUES A BIT WITH
OUR NE COUNTIES DIPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT THIS AFTN. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GREEN CONDITIONS...FIRE WX CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
HOWEVER.
ALL IN ALL...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANGES THIS
MORNING.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BECOME GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 5KTS.
CCC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
THE LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S
AT SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPILLING OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION AT 08Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WAS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH A DECENT WARMING TREND...AS TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER HERE
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TIME. THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM
IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW HAS LED ME TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST
INTO THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS. THE GFS HINTS AT A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING TO GIVE AT LEAST
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THIS
SCENARIO IN THE GOING FORECAST. A DRY FORECAST IS FURTHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NOTED. WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME ON SATURDAY...AS THE ECMWF MODEL WEAKENS THIS STORM SYSTEM
QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INVOLVING FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIODS.
TT
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 251127 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
THE LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S
AT SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPILLING OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION AT 08Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WAS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH A DECENT WARMING TREND...AS TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER HERE
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TIME. THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM
IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW HAS LED ME TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST
INTO THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS. THE GFS HINTS AT A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING TO GIVE AT LEAST
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THIS
SCENARIO IN THE GOING FORECAST. A DRY FORECAST IS FURTHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NOTED. WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME ON SATURDAY...AS THE ECMWF MODEL WEAKENS THIS STORM SYSTEM
QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INVOLVING FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIODS.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO BECOME GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 5KTS.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 251124 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING...WE SEE THE
TROF IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND KEEP US DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWING UP NEXT WEEKEND...GFS
SATURDAY AND EURO SUNDAY...SO OBVIOUSLY QUITE A TIME AWAY. SO THIS
FORECAST BECOMES ONE OF GENERALLY TEMPERATURES.
TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO MORE
EASTERLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVENING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY
00003A17
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BY NEXT FRIDAY...EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN TO GET
SOME LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY BEGIN TO TEMPER
THE HIGHS A TOUCH...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SUMMER LOOKS TO BE ON
THE HORIZON. SPEAKING OF SUMMER...WE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY MORNING
TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH BEGINS ON JUNE 1. LINKS TO
PREPAREDNESS VIDEOS AND GRAPHICS WILL BE POSTED ON OUR WEBSITE AS
WELL AS FACEBOOK...STAY TUNED.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE
DAY.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 251013
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ONE EACH OVER THE NE AND
NW CONUS...SHIFT EAST...SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST WITH...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TAKES A SE PATH...TO JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. EVEN WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS SLOW
ENOUGH TO MOVE MOISTURE BACK OVER THE FA...ALONG WITH A CAP TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FORMATION. NAM IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...ADVERTISING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OVER THE MARINE AREA. HAVE WENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FA GENERALLY RAIN FREE. FOR
TEMPS...AROUND SEASONAL DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
BELOW DUE TO THE DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH
THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...WITH THIS FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER HAS BROUGHT IN
DRIER AIR OVER THE FA...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH ERC VALUES OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY...FL
RISING ABOVE THE MAGIC 37 MARK...WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG FOR
OKALOOSA TODAY. ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITERIA LEVELS FOR A FL RED FLAG.
INTO THE COMING WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...THEN BUILDS WEST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PROCESS...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ON THE INCREASE.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. A SLIGHT CHANCE...THOUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 86 61 86 64 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 87 66 86 67 85 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 84 67 83 68 82 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 86 54 89 59 88 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 86 56 87 58 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CAMDEN 86 53 88 59 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 89 54 89 58 90 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KBMX 250814
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING AND WE SEE THE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGING IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DRY AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND KEEP US DRY FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWING UP NEXT
WEEKEND...GFS SATURDAY AND EURO SUNDAY...SO OBVIOUSLY QUITE A TIME
AWAY. SO THIS FORECAST BECOMES ONE OF GENERALLY TEMPERATURES.
TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER AS COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO MORE
EASTERLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVENING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY...BEFORE GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BY NEXT FRIDAY...EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN TO GET
SOME LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY BEGIN TO TEMPER
THE HIGHS A TOUCH...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SUMMER LOOKS TO BE ON
THE HORIZON. SPEAKING OF SUMMER...WE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY MORNING
TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH BEGINS ON JUNE 1. LINKS TO
PREPAREDNESS VIDEOS AND GRAPHICS WILL BE POSTED ON OUR WEBSITE AS
WELL AS FACEBOOK...STAY TUNED.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE
DAY.
05/MA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
SUNDAY...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR
AT LEAST FOUR HOURS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH...WHICH WOULD MEET ONE PART OF OUR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...THE KBDI VALUE...THE SECOND PART OF THE EQUATION...WILL
REMAIN BELOW 500 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SINCE THE STATE OF ALABAMA
IS NOT IN A FIRE ALERT...THEN RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE
MET OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL BE BACK ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BECOME MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A VERY COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BELOW IS THE LIST OF RECORD LOWS FOR OUR
STATIONS THAT WE KEEP CLIMATE RECORDS FOR. ANY LOCATION THAT
BREAKS THE RECORD WILL RECEIVE A RER LATER TODAY.
LOCATIONS RECORD LOW YEAR(S)
----------------- ---------- -------
ANNISTON 47 1979
BIRMINGHAM 45 1979
MONTGOMERY 51 1983
TUSCALOOSA 51 1979
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 79 48 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 79 50 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 79 53 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 83 52 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 81 52 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 80 51 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 83 54 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 83 51 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 250810
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S
AT SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPILLING OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION AT 08Z. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WAS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH A DECENT WARMING TREND...AS TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER HERE
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TIME. THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM
IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW HAS LED ME TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST
INTO THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS. THE GFS HINTS AT A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING TO GIVE AT LEAST
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THIS
SCENARIO IN THE GOING FORECAST. A DRY FORECAST IS FURTHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY...
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NOTED. WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME ON SATURDAY...AS THE ECMWF MODEL WEAKENS THIS STORM SYSTEM
QUITE A BIT...COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL. HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INVOLVING FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIODS.
TT
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS... 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION
AND WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR KMSL AND KHSV.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 81 54 86 60 / 0 10 10 10
SHOALS 82 52 86 60 / 0 10 10 10
VINEMONT 80 52 84 61 / 0 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 78 51 83 59 / 0 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 78 52 80 58 / 0 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 79 48 84 57 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 250525 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 848 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 40S.
OTHERWISE A LARGE SFC HIGH WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA WITH NW UPPER
FLOW. ONLY A FEW BLOWOFF CI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
CONVECTION OVER TX/OK. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD ATTM...HOWEVER DID
TWEAK THE WINDS. WILL ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING (FOR SATURDAY MRNG)
IN THE MSL AND HSV ZONES.
RECORD LOW ON MAY 25, 2013 FOR HSV...IS 45 IN 1942.
RECORD LOW ON MAY 25, 2013 FOR MSL...IS 45 IN 1935.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS... 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION
AND WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD FOR KMSL AND KHSV.
07
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250446 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...[06Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN. 32/EE
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS
00004000
HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THIS TREND SHIFTING SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. WINDS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT. 32/EE
&&
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 250425
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1125 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT THE EVENING SOUNDING...IT IS ABOUT THE DRIEST THAT YOU
WILL EVER SEE IN LATE MAY. THE PW WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY BE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IS WAY DOWN TO 0.22 INCHES. THE DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS
WELL...WITH AUBURN CHECKING IN LAST HOUR AT A LOW 37. THIS DRY AIR
WILL FORCE THE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AMAZINGLY THIS IS IN THE BALLPARK BUT NOT AT RECORD LEVELS WHICH
WOULD TAKE US INTO THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S TERRITORY SET IN
1979. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO TOP 3 LOWEST SINCE RECORD
KEEPING BEGAN HERE IN 1800S. FORECAST LOWS COULD END UP HAVING A
MAJOR ISSUE AS I AM SEEING MORE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX IN CENTRAL TEXAS. IT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BLANKET OUR AREA WITH ENOUGH COVER TO PUSH THE LOW TEMPS UP
SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EARLIER FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE
DAY.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 250315
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT THE EVENING SOUNDING...IT IS ABOUT THE DRIEST THAT YOU
WILL EVER SEE IN LATE MAY. THE PW WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY BE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IS WAY DOWN TO 0.22 INCHES. THE DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS
WELL...WITH AUBURN CHECKING IN LAST HOUR AT A LOW 37. THIS DRY AIR
WILL FORCE THE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AMAZINGLY THIS IS IN THE BALLPARK BUT NOT AT RECORD LEVELS WHICH
WOULD TAKE US INTO THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S TERRITORY SET IN
1979. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO TOP 3 LOWEST SINCE RECORD
KEEPING BEGAN HERE IN 1800S. FORECAST LOWS COULD END UP HAVING A
MAJOR ISSUE AS I AM SEEING MORE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX IN CENTRAL TEXAS. IT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
TO BLANKET OUR AREA WITH ENOUGH COVER TO PUSH THE LOW TEMPS UP
SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EARLIER FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250201 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
852 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THIS TREND SHIFTING SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. WINDS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT. 32/EE
&&
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 250148
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
TWEAKED WINDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FCST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 40S.
OTHERWISE A LARGE SFC HIGH WAS BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA WITH NW UPPER
FLOW. ONLY A FEW BLOWOFF CI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
CONVECTION OVER TX/OK. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD ATTM...HOWEVER DID
TWEAK THE WINDS. WILL ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING (FOR SATURDAY MRNG)
IN THE MSL AND HSV ZONES.
RECORD LOW ON MAY 25, 2013 FOR HSV...IS 45 IN 1942.
RECORD LOW ON MAY 25, 2013 FOR MSL...IS 45 IN 1935.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 608 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITONS FOR BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING
NOTED ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN MCS CONTINUED MEANDERING SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHERN TX, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS (ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING U/L DISTURBANCE). LOCALLY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX
THIS AFTN.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE, AND UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, MORNING LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC/ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT IS AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST THAT THE DETAILS BEGIN TO GET MURKY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXACTLY
WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE ONE KEY PART TO THE EVENTUAL FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER KEY PART IS THAT THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, PLACING
THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
WE`LL ACTUALLY SEE ANY ACTIVITY LOCALLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO NOT PERFORM WELL DURING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY,
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY VS CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT, AND
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (SCHC POPS). THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAKING FOR A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID END TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, MAKING FOR UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90-DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL NOT FORMALLY
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME JUST YET, AWAITING FURTHER MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
12
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 242325
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW
00000805
AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 242318
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
61
00004000
8 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS INVADED ALABAMA AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS WITH MOST
INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT STAY LONG AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE VALUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA POSSIBLY SETTING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALABAMA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...DESPITE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE...RESULTING IN MID SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 242308
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING
NOTED ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN MCS CONTINUED MEANDERING SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHERN TX, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS (ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING U/L DISTURBANCE). LOCALLY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX
THIS AFTN.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE, AND UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, MORNING LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC/ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT IS AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST THAT THE DETAILS BEGIN TO GET MURKY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXACTLY
WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE ONE KEY PART TO THE EVENTUAL FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER KEY PART IS THAT THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, PLACING
THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
WE`LL ACTUALLY SEE ANY ACTIVITY LOCALLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO NOT PERFORM WELL DURING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY,
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY VS CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT, AND
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (SCHC POPS). THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAKING FOR A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID END TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, MAKING FOR UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90-DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL NOT FORMALLY
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME JUST YET, AWAITING FURTHER MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITONS FOR BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.
07
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KMOB 242052
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241955
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING
NOTED ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS, AND RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN MCS CONTINUED MEANDERING SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHERN TX, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE HIGH PLAINS (ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING U/L DISTURBANCE). LOCALLY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX
THIS AFTN.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE, AND UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, MORNING LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS RIDGING AT THE
SFC/ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. IT IS AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST THAT THE DETAILS BEGIN TO GET MURKY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXACTLY
WHERE IT SETS UP WILL BE ONE KEY PART TO THE EVENTUAL FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OTHER KEY PART IS THAT THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, PLACING
THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHETHER OR NOT
WE`LL ACTUALLY SEE ANY ACTIVITY LOCALLY IS THE BIG QUESTION. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO NOT PERFORM WELL DURING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY,
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
AS SUCH, HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY VS CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT, AND
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (SCHC POPS). THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAKING FOR A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID END TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, MAKING FOR UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90-DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL NOT FORMALLY
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME JUST YET, AWAITING FURTHER MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH MSL/HSV FOR THE
DURATION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD INTO THE REGION. FEW CU ARND 4 KFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SKC BY EARLY EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NNE WIND OF 10G18 KNOTS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH/VEER TO NE BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/VRB FLOW
REGIME EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
70/DD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 46 80 53 83 / 0 0 10 20
SHOALS 46 81 51 83 / 0 0 10 20
VINEMONT 48 79 50 81 / 0 0 10 20
FAYETTEVILLE 46 77 50 80 / 0 0 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 50 77 50 77 / 0 0 10 20
FORT PAYNE 44 78 47 81 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS HAS INVADED ALABAMA AS AN UPPER TROF
DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS WITH MOST
INTRUSIONS OF COOL AIR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING...THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT STAY LONG AS THE UPPER TROF QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE VALUES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA POSSIBLY SETTING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALABAMA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...DESPITE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE...RESULTING IN MID SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
POST FRONTAL/FAIR WEATHER STRATOCU DECK MAINLY ERODED...AND WITH
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24
HOURS...ONLY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE BUSTY/BREEZY NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CROSSWIND/RUNWAY ISSUES. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
DIRECTION VARIABILITY EITHER SIDE OF 360 DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NNE TO NE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
02/JD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 46 78 46 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
ANNISTON 46 80 48 83 56 / 0 0 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 49 81 51 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 48 83 50 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 49 82 50 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 49 80 49 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 51 84 52 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 47 83 49 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241758
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. DID UPDATE SKY COVER GRIDS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG INSOLATION.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH MSL/HSV FOR THE
DURATION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD INTO THE REGION. FEW CU ARND 4 KFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SKC BY EARLY EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NNE WIND OF 10G18 KNOTS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH/VEER TO NE BY THIS EVENING...WITH LGT/VRB FLOW
REGIME EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241718
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
POST FRONTAL/FAIR WEATHER STRATOCU DECK MAINLY ERODED...AND WITH
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24
HOURS...ONLY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE BUSTY/BREEZY NORTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CROSSWIND/RUNWAY ISSUES. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
DIRECTION VARIABILITY EITHER SIDE OF 360 DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NNE TO NE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
00004000
CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
02/JD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF FRONTAL STRATO-CUMULUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHRINKING IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-59 DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES.
58/ROSE
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/58/02
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241714 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241714 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241608
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS MORNING...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED. DID UPDATE SKY COVER GRIDS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG INSOLATION.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BREAKING UP AND LIFTING
NEARING 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
PERIODICALLY GUST TO NEAR 18KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NNE AND SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CCC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 151 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, AS THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO BREAK. THE MID-UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY LIFTED OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MT/WY/DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, THE CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED A CP AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ENSUING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING A GUSTY N/NE WIND ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. IN FACT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
(OH RIVER VALLEY) AND CIRRUS CANOPY FROM TX CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD MEAN A DROP IN TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A COUPLE OF PRONOUNCED EDDIES/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY DEVELOP MCS/QLCS FEATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WITH THE
PREVAILING NW STEERING FLOW MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAPIDLY MOVING FEATURE (DIFFICULT TO
TIME AT THIS POINT). LINGERING CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS ON
SUNDAY MAY HAMPER RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). THUS,
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS EPISODE (WITH THE SOUTHEAST
IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT) ON MONDAY, BUT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE
EXITING EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE MID TO UPPER EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONES TRANSLATING NORTH ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. SO, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (WITH THURSDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST
DAY)ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CENTERED ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, AM HESITANT TO PLACE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. OTHERWISE, MADE
TWEAKS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SL.77
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241510
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF FRONTAL STRATO-CUMULUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHRINKING IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-59 DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
56/GDG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 80 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 84 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241125 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 151 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, AS THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO BREAK. THE MID-UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY LIFTED OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MT/WY/DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, THE CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED A CP AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ENSUING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING A GUSTY N/NE WIND ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. IN FACT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
(OH RIVER VALLEY) AND CIRRUS CANOPY FROM TX CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD MEAN A DROP IN TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A COUPLE OF PRONOUNCED EDDIES/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY DEVELOP MCS/QLCS FEATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WITH THE
PREVAILING NW STEERING FLOW MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAPIDLY MOVING FEATURE (DIFFICULT TO
TIME AT THIS POINT). LINGERING CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS ON
SUNDAY MAY HAMPER RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). THUS,
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS EPISODE (WITH THE SOUTHEAST
IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT) ON MONDAY, BUT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE
EXITING EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE MID TO UPPER EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONES TRANSLATING NORTH ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. SO, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (WITH THURSDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST
DAY)ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CENTERED ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, AM HESITANT TO PLACE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. OTHERWISE, MADE
TWEAKS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BREAKING UP AND LIFTING
NEARING 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
PERIODICALLY GUST TO NEAR 18KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NNE AND SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CCC
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241120
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
00004000
THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
56/GDG
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 83 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240942
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN
THE DEEP LAYERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO THE AL/FL COASTLINE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST BEHIND
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO MOSTLY
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN AREAS TO
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY HAS
SHIFTED EAST...WITH THE RIDGE-LINE JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OVER TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR THE FA...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR HAS MOVE OVER THE AREA UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE-LINE...AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. THIS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IS DUE TO A BUNCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DANCING AROUND EACH
OTHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS A SHOVE
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.THIS BRINGS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE CONUS...ALBEIT A
BIT ON THE SYNOPTIC WEAK SIDE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST...GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO HAVEN`T
DEVIATED. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH A LACK OF PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE
UPPER ENERGY DANCING AROUND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS BREAKS
DOWN...WITH PIECES MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
HELPS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PLAINS(ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS). THE ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY REMAINS ONSHORE...BUT STILL SYNOPTICALLY WEAK AS A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPS
AROUND SEASONAL CONTINUE...WITH PRECIP AGAIN LACKING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME OF THE UPPER ENERGY DIGS SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS....FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS HELPS TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A PIECE
OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...FORMING
EITHER A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF(GFS) OR UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NE-ERN GULF OF MEX(ECMWF). THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG OVER THE PLAINS...WEAKENING AS ONE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE. WITH THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EAST OF THE FA...AND A BUILDING RIDGE...TEMPS CLIMB A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH STARTS TO SWING EAST...PUSHING THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE
EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE-ERN CONUS OVER THE OPEN GULF OF
MEX IN ALL THE GUIDANCE. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN MAKING IT BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS PLAY A GAME OF
PUSH AND SHOVE. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED TO OVER THE EAST COAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS GETS
A BIT OF A SHOVE NORTH...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW.
POPS HAVE RETURNED...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 24/15Z. /21
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FRONT WILL MOVER SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER...DEFINITELY DRIER AIR. THE NORTHERLY AIR
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MIXING
LAYER WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240749
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
249 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THINKING. DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
08
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 83 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240651
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
151 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, AS THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO BREAK. THE MID-UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY LIFTED OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MT/WY/DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC, THE CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED A CP AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND ENSUING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING A GUSTY N/NE WIND ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. IN FACT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
(OH RIVER VALLEY) AND CIRRUS CANOPY FROM TX CONVECTION WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WHILE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD MEAN A DROP IN TEMPS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, A COUPLE OF PRONOUNCED EDDIES/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY DEVELOP MCS/QLCS FEATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WITH THE
PREVAILING NW STEERING FLOW MAY IMPACT THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAPIDLY MOVING FEATURE (DIFFICULT TO
TIME AT THIS POINT). LINGERING CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS ON
SUNDAY MAY HAMPER RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). THUS,
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS EPISODE (WITH THE SOUTHEAST
IN PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT) ON MONDAY, BUT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
TIME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH THE
EXITING EAST COAST UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE TO A RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE MID TO UPPER EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONES TRANSLATING NORTH ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO ONTARIO. SO, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY
ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (WITH THURSDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST
DAY)ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
CENTERED ALMOST ATOP THE TN VALLEY, AM HESITANT TO PLACE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD
SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC PULSE-LIKE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST YET. OTHERWISE, MADE
TWEAKS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SL.77
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SFC COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION. A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER,
HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM 14Z-01Z.
SL.77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 75 47 80 53 / 0 0 0 20
SHOALS 75 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 10
VINEMONT 73 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 20
FAYETTEVILLE 72 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 20
ALBERTVILLE 74 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 20
FORT PAYNE 74 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
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