000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251954
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN NY STATE. MCS SITUATED OVER THE MID
MS VALLEY HAS WEAKENED THIS AFTN AS IT ENCOUNTERED DRIER AIR OVER
THE OH/TN VALLEY. STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN OBS HOLDING IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SHUNTED SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL/MAINLY 40-45 WELL INLAND AND 45 TO 50 NEAR THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE NEAR BUT JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A CUTOFF
LOW GRADUALLY PUSHING NE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUN AFTN.
AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX QUITE A BIT BY SUN AFTN AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SKIES WILL GENLY BE SUNNY. AFTER
A VERY COOL START...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY WITH HIGHS 70-75
FOR MOST OF THE REGION (COOLEST NEAR THE COAST AND WARMEST
ALONG/WEST OF I-95). NOTE...STAYED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MAV
NUMBERS/MOS GUIDANCE HAVE GENLY BEEN TOO WARM PAST FEW DAYS.

STILL CHILLY SUN NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BUT
WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING...EXPECT MINS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SAT NIGHT...WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS WITH LOWS PRIMARILY FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME...UPR LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO
THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS TOO DRY/STABLE E OF THE
MTNS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY W/ JUST SOME SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST MAY FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE...BUT WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MON NGT...MUCH MILDER WITH LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE ACRS
THE AREA ON TUE...NAM DEPICTS A LOT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT BOTH SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A
20 TO 30% FOR FOR SHRA AND AFTN TSRA ACRS THE CWA. HIGHS MAINLY
80-85 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EAST AND RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE WRN CONUS
WEDS...FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS RIDGE AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD. RIDGE AXIS WILL LOCATE FROM THE SE STATES NWWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...PROGRESSING EWD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER BERMUDA HIGH (+1 STD DEV)
PROGGED TO CENTER JUST OFF THE NC COAST THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN POOR/FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. MAIN ERROR REGION LOOKS TO BE OVER CNTRL QUEBEC
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING SE CANADA (LARGE MODEL SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLE RUNS). MODELS AGREE ON COMPRESSING THE RIDGE OVER THE NE
STATES...BUT 25/00Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
SUBSEQUENT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NE STATES. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WED-FRI.
THUS...EXPECT WARM/MOIST SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS TO ANCHOR OVER THE
REGION. +1 STD DEV H5 AND H85 HEIGHTS (AS WELL AS +1 STD DEV H85
TEMPS) WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS +1 STD DEV (GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S) WED-SAT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S...AS PRECIP WATERS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THURS. COMBINATION OF WARM/HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGHING FOR DIURNALLY DRIVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM SO WILL LIMIT POPS BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE. DECREASING MOISTURE THUR-SAT WILL INHIBIT ANY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH THE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
IS WIND SPEED AND GUSTS. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WILL GENERALLY HAVE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NW
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAR
SBY. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AND BE AROUND 10
KTS ON SUNDAY. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO RIC THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CROSS
PHF. STILL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY THEN WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUESDAY COULD DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR IN THE STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:

.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 251949
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM DECAYING
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENTERING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME TONIGHT...THE CANADIAN MODEL INDICATES
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST VA/NW NC.

THESE CLOUDS...AND THE FACT THE FORECAST SFC HIGH CENTER AT 8 AM
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE...MAY INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. WHERE
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EAST AND WIND DIMINISH IN THE
VALLEYS SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE SEEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE
FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED FROST IN THE HWO ACROSS SOME COUNTIES SURROUNDING
THE ADVISORY.

USED A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...LEANING TOWARD THE
COOLER VALUES IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED.

FOR SUNDAY A DEEP...BUT WEAKER...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST VA/NW NC...BUT THIS WAS DISCOUNTED CONSIDERING THE DEPTH
OF DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOMORROW.

GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR PROJECTING HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WE DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THESE
VALUES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THUNDERSTORM
REMNANTS...WHICH COULD BE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE THEY REACH OUR
REGION...MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SE WEST VA AND SW VA MONDAY. WITH
WAA AND STILL SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT AND CLOUDS...TEMPS MAY RUN A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...UNLESS CLOUDS LEAVE
QUICKER DURING THE DAY. BY TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS NORTH...BUT A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS/MAX
T/INSTABILITY CAN SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIDGES....YET
STILL SCATTERED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF MANY WARM AND HUMID
EVENINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A 590DM UPPER
RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO A REX BLOCK
AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE CONTINENTIAL DIVIDE. POPS DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH SINKING MOTION AND THE PROFILE BECOMING TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THE MOST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
HIGHEST PEAKS BY END WEEK. 90F LOOKS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF THE CITIES
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. UPPER AIR PATTERN MAY FLATTEN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF. WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN.

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN AT KLWB...BUT A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST ENOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LWB AFT 06Z SUN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER
AGAIN WITH SCT THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT
NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL LATE THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PH

&nb
00004000
sp;000
FXUS61 KLWX 251827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED ABOUT 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE...WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE HELPED TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...GUSTING AOA 25 MPH AT TIMES. BUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH PARTICULARLY AROUND
SUNSET.

HAVE SEEN FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE RIDGES AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE...SO CU HAVE BEEN RATHER FLAT AND HAVE
NOT PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY. LIKE WIND
GUSTS...ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING A
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MID 60S MAY BE AS HIGH AS WE GET FOR MANY AREAS. NORMAL IS MID TO
UPPER 70S. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINIMA IN THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 30S WEST OF THERE.
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHLANDS FOR MINIMA IN
THE MIDS 30S...AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY
AS TODAY AND THE COOL AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AROUND 70 IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. MAY START TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...INSTIGATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND A RETURN IN MOISTURE...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS MAY
WIND UP STAYING DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...PERHAPS
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. UNDER THE RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIND WILL BE THE WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE LWX TERMINALS. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE REST.

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...ENOUGH FOR
THE SCA OVER THE UPPER/MID TIDAL POTOMAC TO DROP. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCA OVER MUCH OF THE BAY/LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO SUNDAY FOR
20 KT GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE FOR GUSTS AOA 15 KT DURING THE MID
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 60S...THIS MAY BRING RH VALUES OF
NEAR 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH WHICH
WILL LIMIT AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
BPP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251728
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE NY STATE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS SITUATED
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS (AS WELL AS THE STRONG NW FLOW LEADING TO SOME WAVE
CLOUDS IN THE THE LEE OF THE MTNS). QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH 11 AM OBS GENLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES EVEN UNDER FULL
SUN. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BREEZY NW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH (HIGHEST NE). SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65-70...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS WE MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
IN A FEW SPOTS SUN MORNING (ALSO SET A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT
ECG).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INLAND/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH THE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
IS WIND SPEED AND GUSTS. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WILL GENERALLY HAVE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NW
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAR
SBY. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AND BE AROUND 10
KTS ON SUNDAY. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO RIC THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CROSS
PHF. STILL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY THEN WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUESDAY COULD DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR IN THE STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:

.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...WRS
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 251721
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
121 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
AND WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATED 30KT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB
WHICH WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TNB HAS ALREADY GUSTED TO 31 MPH THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...PUSHED
UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
OUR LOCAL WRF SHOWS THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A
LOCAL MAXIMUM OF 700MB OMEGA PER THE GFS...GENERATING SOME
MOUNTAIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHICH ALSO
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...RISING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT SUN.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BELIEVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS BATH...GREENBRIER AND
MONROE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE DEEP UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO A BONAFIDE SUMMERLIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID-WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RISE FROM NEAR 0C EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA TO
NEAR +20C IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE RIDER...
MCS ACTIVITY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
MON-TUE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THIS POTENTIAL. THERE IS STILL SOME
THREAT FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY AREA LATE MON AND
MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST TRACK FOR THIS...IF IT
OCCURS...APPEARS TO BE TOWARD FAR SW VA/E TN/NW NC. THE SFC AIR
MASS AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE RNK CWA REMAINS VERY DRY...SO IT IS
NO LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH MCS HAS A GREAT CHANCE OF SURVIVING VERY
FAR EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY TUE-WED...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHUNT ANY POTENTIAL FOR MCS
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OH/PA/NY...WHICH WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST AND NOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...AS A
BERMUDA SFC HIGH SETS UP WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC...EXPECT A MARKED
INCREASE IN DIURNAL/AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INDUCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS ESPECIALLY. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...HAVE TAILORED POPS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHC FOR
MCS/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACTIVITY LATE MON/EARLY TUE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...THEN TRENDED TOWARD ALMOST ENTIRELY DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
FOCUSED ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...TUE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BRING THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS BY WED...UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NOTICEABLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING BELOW NORMAL SUN TO EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL BY WED. HAVE USED A ECMWF/GFS MOS MODEL
BLEND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOERCAST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AT KBLF. WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN.

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN AT KLWB...BUT A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST ENOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LWB AFT 06Z SUN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER
AGAIN WITH SCT THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT
NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL LATE THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH TODAY AND WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE THE 20S AND 30S...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

000031B8
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PH
FIRE WEATHER...PH

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE NY STATE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS SITUATED
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS (AS WELL AS THE STRONG NW FLOW LEADING TO SOME WAVE
CLOUDS IN THE THE LEE OF THE MTNS). QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH 11 AM OBS GENLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES EVEN UNDER FULL
SUN. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BREEZY NW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH (HIGHEST NE). SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65-70...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS WE MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
IN A FEW SPOTS SUN MORNING (ALSO SET A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT
ECG).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INLAND/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:

.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
CLIMATE...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 251410
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
AND WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATED 30KT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB
WHICH WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TNB HAS ALREADY GUSTED TO 31 MPH THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...PUSHED
UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
OUR LOCAL WRF SHOWS THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A
LOCAL MAXIMUM OF 700MB OMEGA PER THE GFS...GENERATING SOME
MOUNTAIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHICH ALSO
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...RISING 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND ABUNDANT SUN.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BELIEVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS BATH...GREENBRIER AND
MONROE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE DEEP UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO A BONAFIDE SUMMERLIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID-WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RISE FROM NEAR 0C EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA TO
NEAR +20C IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE RIDER...
MCS ACTIVITY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
MON-TUE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THIS POTENTIAL. THERE IS STILL SOME
THREAT FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY AREA LATE MON AND
MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST TRACK FOR THIS...IF IT
OCCURS...APPEARS TO BE TOWARD FAR SW VA/E TN/NW NC. THE SFC AIR
MASS AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE RNK CWA REMAINS VERY DRY...SO IT IS
NO LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH MCS HAS A GREAT CHANCE OF SURVIVING VERY
FAR EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY TUE-WED...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHUNT ANY POTENTIAL FOR MCS
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OH/PA/NY...WHICH WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST AND NOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...AS A
BERMUDA SFC HIGH SETS UP WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC...EXPECT A MARKED
INCREASE IN DIURNAL/AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INDUCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS ESPECIALLY. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...HAVE TAILORED POPS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHC FOR
MCS/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACTIVITY LATE MON/EARLY TUE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...THEN TRENDED TOWARD ALMOST ENTIRELY DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
FOCUSED ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...TUE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BRING THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS BY WED...UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NOTICEABLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING BELOW NORMAL SUN TO EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL BY WED. HAVE USED A ECMWF/GFS MOS MODEL
BLEND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CI...MAINLY ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SKC SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART. NO FOG NOTED
AT ANY OF THE RNK TAF SITES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH JUST ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE ALLEGHANYS...NEAR 0SM VSBY IN FOG FOR MANY WV
SITES. FEEL THIS WILL STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS MORE CAREFULLY SUN MORNING GIVEN
SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND NEAR 0F T/TD SPREAD EARLY SUN AT
LWB. OTHERWISE...VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
FRI...AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW TO THE NE AND THE SFC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE OH VALLEY. AFT
14Z...EXPECT WNW-NW WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT MOST TAF
SITES...SLIGHTLY LESS FOR LWB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH VERY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD BECOME CALM AT LWB/BCB/LYH/DAN SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LWB AFT 06Z SUN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER
AGAIN WITH SCT THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT
NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL LATE THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH TODAY AND WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE THE 20S AND 30S...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PH
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/RAB
FIRE WE
00004000
ATHER...PH

000
FXUS61 KLWX 251321
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY AND COOL DAY...BUT UNLIKE YESTERDAY
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
MIXING WILL BE GOOD SO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30 TO 35
MPH AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

REPOPULATED MAXIMA USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS/SREF
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL LATELY. RESULT IS MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NWLY GUSTS EASE WITH ONLY SHELTERED VALLEYS DECOUPLING. MIN TEMPS
LOW 40S INLAND WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE SHEN VLY AND AROUND 50F
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

COOL AGAIN IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...WENT FOR MID 30S WITH 925
AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN NOW. DESPITE
EXPECTED MIXING WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR WRN PORTIONS OF
ALLEGANY...MINERAL...AND GRANT COUNTIES (DIVISION IS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT) AS WELL AS HIGHLAND/ PENDLETON. TEMPS TEND TO DROP OFF
RAPIDLY IN CLEAR CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...SO WENT FOR
MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM FOR THE HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE XTND PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS PRETTY CUT AND DRIED. HIGH PRES
OVR THE AREA SUNDAY SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
COOLER THAN NRML TEMPS. ON MON HGH TEMPS SHOULD DRAW CLOSER TO
NRML - U70S. AFTR THAT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND A TROF DVLPS E OF THE ROCKIES RIGHT THROUGH
FRI. HIGHS IN THE U80S...PSBLY A90 BY WEEK`S END. LOWS IN THE 60S.

PCPN CHCS LOOK PRETTY SCANT IN THE COMING WK. PERHAPS AFTN/EVE
ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE MTNS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIND WILL BE THE WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACT TODAY AT THE LWX
TERMINALS. WITH GOOD MIXING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT WILL GUST
TO 25 KT TODAY AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 30 KT. GUSTS
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY RETURN TO NEAR 20 KT ON SUNDAY.

IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU MIDWEEK FOR NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE/UPR
TIDAL POTOMAC DROPPING OFF THE SCA AT 8PM. REST OF WATERS SEE 20
KT GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE XTND...IT IS LKLY THAT SOME GUSTS REACHING SCA LVL WL OCCUR
ON THE BAY/LWR PTMC SUN AFTN. THEN NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS
MEM DAY OR THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 60S...THIS MAY BRING RH VALUES OF
25 TO 30 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OVER
25 MPH. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH WHICH WILL LIMIT
AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!

000
FXUS61 KRNK 251134
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
AND WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHICH ARE ABOVE THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION...WHERE
STILL SEEING GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT CLEAR SKIES. STILL HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL
OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO DEEPER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER THIN HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY COMPARED TO THOSE OF FRIDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE RELAXED...BUT WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH FOR LATE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON...MORE SO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER AS WELL...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BELIEVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS BATH...GREENBRIER AND
MONROE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE DEEP UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO A BONAFIDE SUMMERLIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID-WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RISE FROM NEAR 0C EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA TO
NEAR +20C IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE RIDER...
MCS ACTIVITY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
MON-TUE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THIS POTENTIAL. THERE IS STILL SOME
THREAT FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY AREA LATE MON AND
MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST TRACK FOR THIS...IF IT
OCCURS...APPEARS TO BE TOWARD FAR SW VA/E TN/NW NC. THE SFC AIR
MASS AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE RNK CWA REMAINS VERY DRY...SO IT IS
NO LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH MCS HAS A GREAT CHANCE OF SURVIVING VERY
FAR EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY TUE-WED...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHUNT ANY POTENTIAL FOR MCS
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OH/PA/NY...WHICH WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST AND NOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...AS A
BERMUDA SFC HIGH SETS UP WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC...EXPECT A MARKED
INCREASE IN DIURNAL/AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INDUCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS ESPECIALLY. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...HAVE TAILORED POPS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHC FOR
MCS/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACTIVITY LATE MON/EARLY TUE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...THEN TRENDED TOWARD ALMOST ENTIRELY DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
FOCUSED ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...TUE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BRING THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS BY WED...UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NOTICEABLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING BELOW NORMAL SUN TO EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL BY WED. HAVE USED A ECMWF/GFS MOS MODEL
BLEND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CI...MAINLY ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SKC SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART. NO FOG NOTED
AT ANY OF THE RNK TAF SITES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH JUST ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE ALLEGHANYS...NEAR 0SM VSBY IN FOG FOR MANY WV
SITES. FEEL THIS WILL STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS MORE CAREFULLY SUN MORNING GIVEN
SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND NEAR 0F T/TD SPREAD EARLY SUN AT
LWB. OTHERWISE...VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
FRI...AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW TO THE NE AND THE SFC HIGH SPREADING INTO THE OH VALLEY. AFT
14Z...EXPECT WNW-NW WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT MOST TAF
SITES...SLIGHTLY LESS FOR LWB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH VERY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD BECOME CALM AT LWB/BCB/LYH/DAN SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXPECT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LWB AFT 06Z SUN.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER
AGAIN WITH SCT THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT
NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL LATE THE DAY BEFORE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-018>020.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>045.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/RAB

000
FXUS61 KRNK 250943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
543 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
AND WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHICH ARE ABOVE THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION...WHERE
STILL SEEING GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT CLEAR SKIES. STILL HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL
OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO DEEPER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER THIN HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY COMPARED TO THOSE OF FRIDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE RELAXED...BUT WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH FOR LATE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON...MORE SO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER AS WELL...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BELIEVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS BATH...GREENBRIER AND
MONROE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE DEEP UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO A BONAFIDE SUMMERLIKE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID-WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL
RISE FROM NEAR 0C EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA TO
NEAR +20C IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE RIDER...
MCS ACTIVITY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
MON-TUE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THIS POTENTIAL. THERE IS STILL SOME
THREAT FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS IL/IN/OH/KY AREA LATE MON AND
MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST TRACK FOR THIS...IF IT
OCCURS...APPEARS TO BE TOWARD FAR SW VA/E TN/NW NC. THE SFC AIR
MASS AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE RNK CWA REMAINS VERY DRY...SO IT IS
NO LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH MCS HAS A GREAT CHANCE OF SURVIVING VERY
FAR EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY TUE-WED...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND SHUNT ANY POTENTIAL FOR MCS
ACTIVITY MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OH/PA/NY...WHICH WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST AND NOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...AS A
BERMUDA SFC HIGH SETS UP WITH CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC...EXPECT A MARKED
INCREASE IN DIURNAL/AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INDUCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS ESPECIALLY. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND...HAVE TAILORED POPS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHC FOR
MCS/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACTIVITY LATE MON/EARLY TUE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...THEN TRENDED TOWARD ALMOST ENTIRELY DIURNAL MOUNTAIN
FOCUSED ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...TUE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BRING THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS BY WED...UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NOTICEABLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING BELOW NORMAL SUN TO EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL BY WED. HAVE USED A ECMWF/GFS MOS MODEL
BLEND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DIMINISH
TO 5 KTS OR LESS WITH THE DE
00004000
VELOPMENT OF THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION...
HOWEVER STILL OBSERVING A FEW GUSTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL
KEEP WIND GUSTS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AT SUNSET.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-018>020.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>045.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
452 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LO PRES DVLPG INVOF CAPE COD ATTM...W/ TROUGH ALOFT PUSHING
OFF THE MDATLC CST. AREA OF CLDNS (CIGS ARND 5KFT) ASSOCIATED W/
THE TROUGH RMNS SLO TO MOVE AWAY FM/DISSIPATE OVR THE ERN SHR AND
ADJACENT CSTL WTRS. OTRW...SFC HI PRES INVOF GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
SPREADING SE INTO THE MDATLC AND SE CONUS STATES. 06Z/25 RUC
SHOWING CLDNS GENLY OFF THE CST BY 12Z/25. W/ THE STM CONTG TO
MOVE (SLOLY) AWAY FM NEW ENG...AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN
FM THE NW...DRY/COOL WX XPCD TO START THE HOLIDAY WKND. NW WNDS
RMNG GUSTY (TO 25-40 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY NR THE CST...AND
BREEZY INLAND. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INALDN/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 250830
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
430 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
AND WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHICH ARE ABOVE THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION...WHERE
STILL SEEING GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT CLEAR SKIES. STILL HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL
OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO DEEPER VALLEYS
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...AND THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UPWARD QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER THIN HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY COMPARED TO THOSE OF FRIDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAR MORE RELAXED...BUT WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH FOR LATE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON...MORE SO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET. HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER AS WELL...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BELIEVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS BATH...GREENBRIER AND
MONROE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FROST MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR
CALM MOST AREAS...WE DO START TO GET SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WHILE A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED...WE
STILL EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 40 COMMON FOR OTHER
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DIMINISH
TO 5 KTS OR LESS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION...
HOWEVER STILL OBSERVING A FEW GUSTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL
KEEP WIND GUSTS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AT SUNSET.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-018>020.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>045.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LO PRES DVLPG INVOF CAPE COD ATTM...W/ TROUGH ALOFT PUSHING
OFF THE MDATLC CST. AREA OF CLDNS (CIGS ARND 5KFT) ASSOCIATED W/
THE TROUGH RMNS SLO TO MOVE AWAY FM/DISSIPATE OVR THE ERN SHR AND
ADJACENT CSTL WTRS. OTRW...SFC HI PRES INVOF GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
SPREADING SE INTO THE MDATLC AND SE CONUS STATES. 06Z/25 RUC
SHOWING CLDNS GENLY OFF THE CST BY 12Z/25. W/ THE STM CONTG TO
MOVE (SLOLY) AWAY FM NEW ENG...AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN
FM THE NW...DRY/COOL WX XPCD TO START THE HOLIDAY WKND. NW WNDS
RMNG GUSTY (TO 25-40 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY NR THE CST...AND
BREEZY INLAND. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INALDN/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK
00000AC5
...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250735
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LO PRES DVLPG INVOF CAPE COD ATTM...W/ TROUGH ALOFT PUSHING
OFF THE MDATLC CST. AREA OF CLDNS (CIGS ARND 5KFT) ASSOCIATED W/
THE TROUGH RMNS SLO TO MOVE AWAY FM/DISSIPATE OVR THE ERN SHR AND
ADJACENT CSTL WTRS. OTRW...SFC HI PRES INVOF GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
SPREADING SE INTO THE MDATLC AND SE CONUS STATES. 06Z/25 RUC
SHOWING CLDNS GENLY OFF THE CST BY 12Z/25. W/ THE STM CONTG TO
MOVE (SLOLY) AWAY FM NEW ENG...AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN
FM THE NW...DRY/COOL WX XPCD TO START THE HOLIDAY WKND. NW WNDS
RMNG GUSTY (TO 25-40 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY NR THE CST...AND
BREEZY INLAND. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INALDN/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
00004000
 MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS

000
FXUS61 KLWX 250730
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK...PROMOTING
A WARM UP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW IS CENTERED OVER NJ WITH BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD BREAKING UP OVER THE MD WRN SHORE. PRECIP HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE LAURELS OF PA
AND THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS OF MD/WV...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ERODING AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS FROM N-NWLY TO NWLY...CHANGING THE
SOURCE REGION.

TODAY...A VORT LOBE CURRENTLY SEEN IN IR/WV OVER THE GEORGIAN BAY OF
LAKE HURON BRINGS SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CNTRL MD AROUND MIDDAY.
OTW SUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MAX
TEMPS UPR 60S TO 70F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

NWLY GUSTS EASE WITH ONLY SHELTERED VALLEYS DECOUPLING. MIN TEMPS
LOW 40S INLAND WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE SHEN VLY AND AROUND 50F
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

COOL AGAIN IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...WENT FOR MID 30S WITH 925
AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN NOW. DESPITE
EXPECTED MIXING WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR WRN PORTIONS OF
ALLEGANY...MINERAL...AND GRANT COUNTIES (DIVISION IS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT) AS WELL AS HIGHLAND/ PENDLETON. TEMPS TEND TO DROP OFF
RAPIDLY IN CLEAR CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...SO WENT FOR
MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM FOR THE HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE XTND PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS PRETTY CUT AND DRIED. HIGH PRES
OVR THE AREA SUNDAY SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
COOLER THAN NRML TEMPS. ON MON HGH TEMPS SHOULD DRAW CLOSER TO
NRML - U70S. AFTR THAT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND A TROF DVLPS E OF THE ROCKIES RIGHT THROUGH
FRI. HIGHS IN THE U80S...PSBLY A90 BY WEEK`S END. LOWS IN THE 60S.

PCPN CHCS LOOK PRETTY SCANT IN THE COMING WK. PERHAPS AFTN/EVE
ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE MTNS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST AROUND 20 KT UNTIL SUNRISE...WITH 25 TO
30 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUSTS EASE THIS EVENING WITH
AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH ANY CIGS BREAKING THIS MORNING.

IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

NWLY FLOW 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH AN SCA. WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE/UPR
TIDAL POTOMAC DROPPING OFF THE SCA AT 8PM. REST OF WATERS SEE 20 KT
GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE XTND...IT IS LKLY THAT SOME GUSTS REACHING SCA LVL WL OCCUR
ON THE BAY/LWR PTMC SUN AFTN. THEN   NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS
MEM DAY OR THRU MIDWEEK

&&

.COASTAL FLOOD...

GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WATER OUT OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH WATER LEVELS -1 TO -1.5 MLLW AT LOW TIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

000
FXUS61 KRNK 250612
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
212 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TURN BACK TO MORE SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING
BUT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW WHERE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. IN
ADDITION...THE 85H COLD POCKET WILL BE ACROSS THE NW LIKELY
PRODUCING AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS WELL. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MOST OF SE WVA AND THE VA HIGHLANDS ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT
COLDER READINGS IN THE VALLEYS THAN ELSW. THUS WILL EXPAND THE
GOING WARNING SOUTH AND EAST FOR A FEW ADDED COUNTIES ATTM TO
INCLUDE BURKES GARDEN TO THE SOUTH AND PAINT BANK/NEW CASTLE TO
THE EAST. EXPECT TO ALSO SEE THE VALLEYS/RIDGETOPS FROM THE NW NC
HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
EXPERIENCE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK BUT TOO
ISOLATED FOR HEADLINES ESPCLY WITH LACK OF FROST PER
DRYNESS/MIXING. OTRW TWEEKED WESTERN LOW TEMPS DOWN SOME MOUNTAINS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CUT BACK ON WINDS LATE WESTERN PERIMETER
CTYS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. NAM/CMC SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS OR AC
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT SKY COVER UNDER 50
PERCENT.

FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH THE SFC
HIGH STAYING WEST OF US FOR A BREEZE OF 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70
EAST...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR
CALM MOST AREAS...WE DO START TO GET SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WHILE A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED...WE
STILL EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 40 COMMON FOR OTHER
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DIMINISH
TO 5 KTS OR LESS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION...
HOWEVER STILL OBSERVING A FEW GUSTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND 20 KTS. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL
KEEP WIND GUSTS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AT SUNSET.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-018>020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. TEMPS AT 8 PM EST ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AND ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONE AREA OF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE WHERE A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST. NEAR THE COAST...WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND
GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A 100-120 KT JET
STREAK. NW WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND
FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN
THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA JUST NOT
ARRIVING...EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS TO GALE FOR A FEW H
000025C9
RS BETWEEN
00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HAVE RUN HEADLINE THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW...WITH
THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW CAN KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE
EARLY AS NEEDED.

SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND...2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS...3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY. PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE
EXPIRED AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
(SCA PER WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO
LATE SAT). SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.

FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-631-650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAM/WRS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 250147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TURN BACK TO MORE SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS EVENING
BUT WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW WHERE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. IN
ADDITION...THE 85H COLD POCKET WILL BE ACROSS THE NW LIKELY
PRODUCING AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS WELL. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MOST OF SE WVA AND THE VA HIGHLANDS ESPCLY GIVEN CURRENT
COLDER READINGS IN THE VALLEYS THAN ELSW. THUS WILL EXPAND THE
GOING WARNING SOUTH AND EAST FOR A FEW ADDED COUNTIES ATTM TO
INCLUDE BURKES GARDEN TO THE SOUTH AND PAINT BANK/NEW CASTLE TO
THE EAST. EXPECT TO ALSO SEE THE VALLEYS/RIDGETOPS FROM THE NW NC
HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY
EXPERIENCE POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS NEAR DAYBREAK BUT TOO
ISOLATED FOR HEADLINES ESPCLY WITH LACK OF FROST PER
DRYNESS/MIXING. OTRW TWEEKED WESTERN LOW TEMPS DOWN SOME MOUNTAINS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CUT BACK ON WINDS LATE WESTERN PERIMETER
CTYS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. NAM/CMC SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS OR AC
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT SKY COVER UNDER 50
PERCENT.

FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH THE SFC
HIGH STAYING WEST OF US FOR A BREEZE OF 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70
EAST...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MET MOS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR
CALM MOST AREAS...WE DO START TO GET SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WHILE A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED...WE
STILL EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 40 COMMON FOR OTHER
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOME 25KT WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-
     018>020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KM/WP

000
FXUS61 KLWX 250056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PLENTY OF CAA ONGOING...BTWN LOPRES OVER CAPE COD AND
HIPRES OVER THE GRTLKS. BACK EDGE OF SOLID STCU DECK STRETCHES FM
FDK- DCA-EZF...WITH ADDTL CLDCVR ACRS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS AND THE
NRN SHEN VLY. XPCT SKIES TO CLR OVNGT PER 18Z GDNC.

WHILE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE GIVEN TIGHT GRADIENT UNDER A COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LIKE A ROCK BUT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE ITSELF WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT. WITH WIND DO NOT EXPECT
FROST ISSUES...BUT MINIMA IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHLANDS
SUPPORTS THE FREEZE WARNING. LTST GDNC SUPPORT GOING MIN-T FCST.

SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WINDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS MAY BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...HOWEVER WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW THIS SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETURNING CLOSE TO
CLIMO MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXIMA LIKELY WELL IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. UNDER THE RIDGE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS. STCU W/ BASES 050-060 WL DSPT
OVNGT. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT NW WNDS G25-30 KT WL
RETURN AOB MIDDAY SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
&&

.MARINE...
WNDS HV DIMINISHED UNDER GLW CRITERIA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. WL STILL
HV FREQUENT G25KT TNGT...W/ OCNL G30KT. SCA IN EFFECT...WHICH
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES
ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
834
00004000
 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. TEMPS AT 8 PM EST ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AND ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONE AREA OF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE WHERE A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST. NEAR THE COAST...WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND
GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A 100-120 KT JET
STREAK. NW WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL STRATUS (4-5K FT) WILL REMAIN STUBBORN ACROSS
THE VA NORTHERN NECK ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...IF NOT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY SCOURING
OUT. OTW...CLEAR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING THRU 02Z...ENDING UP AOB 10 KT
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES.

VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW
FLOW...TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY). GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS
SAT NIGHT-SUN.

GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND
FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN
THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA JUST NOT
ARRIVING...EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN
00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HAVE RUN HEADLINE THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW...WITH
THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW CAN KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE
EARLY AS NEEDED.

SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND...2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS...3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY. PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE
EXPIRED AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
(SCA PER WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO
LATE SAT). SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.

FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAM

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242348
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH (500MB HEIGHTS
-2 STD DEV) DIGGING OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE COAST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS (BEFORE 5PM EDT). UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH (STRONGER
NEAR THE COAST) WILL SUBSIDE LATE AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR WEST TO
EAST. COLD TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HV AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HV ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL STRATUS (4-5K FT) WILL REMAIN STUBBORN ACROSS
THE VA NORTHERN NECK ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...IF NOT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY SCOURING
OUT. OTW...CLEAR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING THRU 02Z...ENDING UP AOB 10 KT
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES.

VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW
FLOW...TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY). GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS
SAT NIGHT-SUN.

GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND
FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN
THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA JUST NOT
ARRIVING...EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN
00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HAVE RUN HEADLINE THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW...WITH
THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW CAN KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE
EARLY AS NEEDED.

SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND...2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS...3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY. PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE
EXPIRED AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
(SCA PER WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO
LATE SAT). SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO ERY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.

FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JDM/LKB
MARINE...JDM/MAM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 242338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TURN BACK TO MORE SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WELL ABOVE THE
SFC AND WINDS ALOFT AREA NOT TOO STRONG TO WARRANT ADVISORY OF
GREATER THAN 45 MPH. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS THE SUN
SETS THAT A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCURS AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW COLD IT WILL
GET GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND HOW FAST THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN SLIDE IN A
WEAKEN THE WINDS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED FROST IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL SEE AT LEAST TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WV INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF BATH. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE SUMMERS AND MONROE COUNTY WV.

FURTHER EAST EXPECT MORE OF GRADIENT KEEPING THE TEMPS ELEVATED BUT
STILL COOL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE CU/SC OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DRY UP TO CLEAR
SKIES BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SC INTO
MIDNIGHT IN THE WV MTNS...PER RUC. SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH. DESPITE THE COOL WEATHER TODAY GIVEN THE TEMPS WERE MILDER
BEFORE DAWN NO RECORD COLD HIGHS WERE REACHED FOR MAY 24TH.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. NAM/CMC SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS OR AC
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT SKY COVER UNDER 50
PERCENT.

FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH THE SFC
HIGH STAYING WEST OF US FOR A BREEZE OF 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70
EAST...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR
CALM MOST AREAS...WE DO START TO GET SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WHILE A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED...WE
STILL EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 40 COMMON FOR OTHER
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 736 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WINDS WEAKEN AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOME 25KT WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM 
00000EEA
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ043>045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KM/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH (500MB HEIGHTS
-2 STD DEV) DIGGING OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE COAST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS (BEFORE 5PM EDT). UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH (STRONGER
NEAR THE COAST) WILL SUBSIDE LATE AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR WEST TO
EAST. COLD TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HV AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HV ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.

THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ACRS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NNW AT ALL SITES
AS OF 1730Z. IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS AT KRIC WITH 
00004000
CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3 K FT...BUT FARTHER EAST CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS/POCKETS
OF IFR THROUGH 20Z WITH SHRA AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30
KT THROUGH 00Z. WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...ALTHOUGH REMAIN GUSTY TO 20
KT OR SO CLOSER TO THE COAST. VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL
SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW FLOW..TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY).
GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS SAT NIGHT-SUN.

GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW GENERALLY 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT IN
MOD CAA THIS AFTN. MSAS 3-HR PRESSURE CHANGE IS NOTING ~2-3 MB
PRESSURE RISES OVER THE MARINE AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. HV GENERALLY NOTED GUSTS RUNNING JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF GUIDANCE, HELPED IN PART BY SCT SHRAS ALLOWING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. HV GONE AHEAD WITH GALE
WARNING OVER NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND
GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH
STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA STILL A FEW HRS OFF, EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS
TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN 00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HV RUN HEADLINE
THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW, WITH THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW KEEP AN
EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE EARLY AS NEEDED.

SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND, 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS, 3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES BAY.
PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE EXPIRED
AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY LIFTS TO
THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT NIGHT, EXTENDING
INTO ERY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.

FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 241928
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS US...REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A TURN BACK TO MORE SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WELL ABOVE THE
SFC AND WINDS ALOFT AREA NOT TOO STRONG TO WARRANT ADVISORY OF
GREATER THAN 45 MPH. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS THE SUN
SETS THAT A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCURS AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW COLD IT WILL
GET GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND HOW FAST THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN SLIDE IN A
WEAKEN THE WINDS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED FROST IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL SEE AT LEAST TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WV INTO
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF BATH. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE SUMMERS AND MONROE COUNTY WV.

FURTHER EAST EXPECT MORE OF GRADIENT KEEPING THE TEMPS ELEVATED BUT
STILL COOL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE CU/SC OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DRY UP TO CLEAR
SKIES BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SC INTO
MIDNIGHT IN THE WV MTNS...PER RUC. SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH. DESPITE THE COOL WEATHER TODAY GIVEN THE TEMPS WERE MILDER
BEFORE DAWN NO RECORD COLD HIGHS WERE REACHED FOR MAY 24TH.

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. NAM/CMC SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS OR AC
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT SKY COVER UNDER 50
PERCENT.

FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH STILL ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH THE SFC
HIGH STAYING WEST OF US FOR A BREEZE OF 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70
EAST...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEAR
CALM MOST AREAS...WE DO START TO GET SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WHILE A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED...WE
STILL EXPECT A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO
HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS AROUND 40 COMMON FOR OTHER
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT LOW TO MID 40S.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR THE START OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED FLAT AND ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL START TO TREND MILDER...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH
LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL SUNSET. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO
MVFR WEST OF BLF-LWB. THINK THE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING WITH DRY AIRMASS PUSHING IN.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ043>045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RAB/WP

000
FXUS61 KLWX 241829
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
229 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE OF THE DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING.

UPPER TROUGH HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW HAS SUPPORTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT 18Z MOST OF THOSE HAD MOVED
EAST OF THE BAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER HAVE BEEN
HANGING TOUGH ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS.

HAVE GENERALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MARYLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BUT ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR
DECENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

WHILE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE GIVEN TIGHT GRADIENT UNDER A COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LIKE A ROCK BUT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE ITSELF WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT. WITH WIND DO NOT EXPECT
FROST ISSUES...BUT MINIMA IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHLANDS
SUPPORTS THE FREEZE WARNING.

SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WINDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS MAY BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...HOWEVER WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW THIS SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETURNING CLOSE TO
CLIMO MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXIMA LIKELY WELL IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. UNDER THE RIDGE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT TODAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT THE HUBS ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE BAY...AND HAVE DRY FORECAST IN FOR THE
VALID TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS SIMILAR TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE
BAY BY 19Z...BUT MODELS STILL SUGGEST GRADIENT WIND COULD GUST
AROUND GALES THROUGH 00Z OR SO. SCA IN EFFECT THEREAFTER...AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES
ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO RAISE ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
BPP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241753
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
153 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS...COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES (+4-6MB) OVER CNTRL AND WRN VA. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...AIDED BY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE...POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT ANY
CHANCE OF THUNDER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~1.25 INCHES
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95) AND THE DIGGING TROUGH (UVM) WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SCATTERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL ORIENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIP
CHANCES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER NE NC.
THIS IS ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (-1 STD DEV). NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 MPH...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST.

LIGHT NW WINDS AND CLEAR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WARMING WATER TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ACRS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NNW AT ALL SITES
AS OF 1730Z. IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS AT KRIC WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3 K FT...BUT FARTHER EAST CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS/POCKETS
OF IFR THROUGH 20Z WITH SHRA AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30
KT THROUGH 00Z. WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...ALTHOUGH REMAIN GUSTY TO 20
KT OR SO CLOSER TO THE COAST. VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL
SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW FLOW..TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY).
GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS SAT NIGHT-SUN.

GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30

00004000
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.

WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ALB

000
FXUS61 KRNK 241741
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER LIKE
WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
LEAVE BUT DRIER AIR POURING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE THE SE WV MTNS STAY IN MORE
CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED
BY 4PM AS BEST PRESSURE RISES AND CORE OF HIGHER WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST. WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TODAY...WILL
LOOK LIKE SOMETHING WE MORE COMMONLY SEEN DURING THE WINTER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE MAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD LOWER NEW ENGLAND.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. WILL BE LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO PREVENT
FROST IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS...HOWEVER BELIEVE
THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REACH INTO BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS COLD 850MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO THE NE SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE DC
METRO AREA BY SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME FROM
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS OF FREEZING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS...TO WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S WEST
AND LOWER 70S PIEDMONT...WITH SOME 50S DEFINITELY HANGING ON ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM
THE PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAA. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE INTO SUN MORNING
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STRONG WAA ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER AS WELL. THUS...DO NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUN MORNING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MON INTO TUE...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
AND AMPLIFY FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH ATLANTIC...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON A
SERIES OF NW FLOW DISTURBANCES SLATED TO RIDE OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MON-TUE PERIOD...BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO SHOVE THIS
CONVEYER BELT OF DISTURBANCES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD PA/NY. THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY TUE...AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR NW FLOW/MCS TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY TO RIDE SE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH QPF CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE SFC AIR MASS WILL BE
SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE ABNORMALLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SUN-
MON...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY DOWNSLOPES TOWARD THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MON-
TUE...AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...IT WILL BE BACK
TO REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT
FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS WILL PERIST THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL SUNSET. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO
MVFR WEST OF BLF-LWB. THINK THE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING WITH DRY AIRMASS PUSHING IN.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-012>017-
     022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241424
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS...COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES (+4-6MB) OVER CNTRL AND WRN VA. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...AIDED BY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE...POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT ANY
CHANCE OF THUNDER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~1.25 INCHES
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95) AND THE DIGGING TROUGH (UVM) WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SCATTERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL ORIENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIP
CHANCES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER NE NC.
THIS IS ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (-1 STD DEV). NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 MPH...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST.

LIGHT NW WINDS AND CLEAR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WARMING WATER TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.

WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB

000
FXUS61 KRNK 241402
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT FRIDAY...

COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED EAST OF US WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
LAGGING BEHIND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WV INTO NW NC THIS
MORNING WILL FADE SOON. SKIES ARE GOING TO CLEAR UP BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WHICH IS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH OVC SKIES IN THE WV MTNS/FAR SW VA MTNS SHRINKING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO PARTLY SUNNY THEN CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND GUSTS ARE STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT UPSTREAM
SPEED MAX AT 5H OVER KY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH MIDDAY AND
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB IN 3 HOURS...SO
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RUN...BUT THINK AS THE MIXING HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GUSTS WILL TAIL OFF TO UNDER 40
MPH...SO LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLY.

TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY GIVEN THE LAG IN THE COLDER AIR. AT 600
AM BCB WAS 57 THEN DROPPED TO AROUND 50 AT 800 AM. WILL SEE TEMPS
REBOUND SOME AS THE LATE MAY SUN RETURNS BUT WINDS AND THICKER
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL HINDER THIS IN THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT
50S WEST...SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH 60S EAST...TO CLOSE
TO 70 EAST OF LYH/DAN.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TODAY...WILL
LOOK LIKE SOMETHING WE MORE COMMONLY SEEN DURING THE WINTER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE MAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD LOWER NEW ENGLAND.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. WILL BE LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO PREVENT
FROST IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS...HOWEVER BELIEVE
THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REACH INTO BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS COLD 850MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO THE NE SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE DC
METRO AREA BY SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME FROM
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS OF FREEZING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS...TO WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S WEST
AND LOWER 70S PIEDMONT...WITH SOME 50S DEFINITELY HANGING ON ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM
THE PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAA. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE INTO SUN MORNING
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STRONG WAA ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER AS WELL. THUS...DO NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUN MORNING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MON INTO TUE...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
AND AMPLIFY FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH ATLANTIC...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON A
SERIES OF NW FLOW DISTURBANCES SLATED TO RIDE OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MON-TUE PERIOD...BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO SHOVE THIS
CONVEYER BELT OF DISTURBANCES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD PA/NY. THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY TUE...AS TEMPS
00002F7A
 RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR NW FLOW/MCS TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY TO RIDE SE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH QPF CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE SFC AIR MASS WILL BE
SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE ABNORMALLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SUN-
MON...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY DOWNSLOPES TOWARD THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MON-
TUE...AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...IT WILL BE BACK
TO REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT
FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 8 MB ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING AT WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS FOR ROA AND UP TO 25-30KTS FOR
BCB/DAN/BLF. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE THE STRONGEST AT ROA GIVEN THE
PATTERN. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS TURBULENT
MIXING ENDS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD FROM THE PLAINS.

WITH A NEAR WINTERLIKE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...EXPECT IFR-LMVFR CIGS IN THE UPSLOPE TAF SITES ACROSS SE
WV...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AS THE
DOWNSLOPE NW WINDS TAKE EFFECT AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOUDS SHOULD SCT
OUT TO SKC AFTER MID-MORNING EAST OF THE ALLEGHNYS...WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN SE WV. ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD -RA MAY PERSIST ACROSS SE
WV THROUGH MID-MORNING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO
MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY
AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-012>017-
     022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF/RAB

000
FXUS61 KLWX 241317
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY EAST OF THE BAY AND WILL PROGRESS
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED AND WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE 30 TO 35 MPH MARK.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. STRONG VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON ITS EASTERN SIDE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT/S WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND
THESE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/WRF-ARW/HRRR
CAPTURE THIS WELL.

ASIDE FROM SHOWERS...TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WINDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. WE/VE LIKELY ALREADY HIT THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND
LITTLE IF ANY REBOUND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 25-30 KT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM DCA UP TO
BWI/MTN. IN SHOWERS...VFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER IN THE EVENING.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE FOR TODAY. GRADIENT WIND/NW FLOW WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN IN SOLID SCA CRITERIA.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/ABW
MARINE...BPP/ABW

000
FXUS61 KLWX 241213
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
813 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.

THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE FOR TODAY. GRADIENT WIND/NW FLOW WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN IN SOLID SCA CRITERIA.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRNK 241148
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...USHERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER BY MID
TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TODAY...WILL
LOOK LIKE SOMETHING WE MORE COMMONLY SEEN DURING THE WINTER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE MAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD LOWER NEW ENGLAND.
00004000
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...AND RADAR INDICATES UPSLOPE RAINSHOWERS FALLING FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE LARGER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON AN 8 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO SCATTER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT
WE WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHERE
RIDGES ABOVE 3000 FEET CAN SEE 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO
WARM MUCH FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ON TOP OF
THAT...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE
AIR...SO IT WILL BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP A SWEATER OR LIGHT JACKET
HANDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. WILL BE LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO PREVENT
FROST IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS...HOWEVER BELIEVE
THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REACH INTO BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS COLD 850MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO THE NE SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE DC
METRO AREA BY SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME FROM
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS OF FREEZING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS...TO WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S WEST
AND LOWER 70S PIEDMONT...WITH SOME 50S DEFINITELY HANGING ON ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM
THE PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAA. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE INTO SUN MORNING
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STRONG WAA ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER AS WELL. THUS...DO NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUN MORNING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MON INTO TUE...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
AND AMPLIFY FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH ATLANTIC...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON A
SERIES OF NW FLOW DISTURBANCES SLATED TO RIDE OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MON-TUE PERIOD...BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO SHOVE THIS
CONVEYER BELT OF DISTURBANCES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD PA/NY. THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY TUE...AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR NW FLOW/MCS TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY TO RIDE SE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH QPF CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE SFC AIR MASS WILL BE
SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE ABNORMALLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SUN-
MON...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY DOWNSLOPES TOWARD THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MON-
TUE...AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...IT WILL BE BACK
TO REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT
FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 8 MB ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING AT WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS FOR ROA AND UP TO 25-30KTS FOR
BCB/DAN/BLF. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE THE STRONGEST AT ROA GIVEN THE
PATTERN. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS TURBULENT
MIXING ENDS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD FROM THE PLAINS.

WITH A NEAR WINTERLIKE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...EXPECT IFR-LMVFR CIGS IN THE UPSLOPE TAF SITES ACROSS SE
WV...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AS THE
DOWNSLOPE NW WINDS TAKE EFFECT AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOUDS SHOULD SCT
OUT TO SKC AFTER MID-MORNING EAST OF THE ALLEGHNYS...WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN SE WV. ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD -RA MAY PERSIST ACROSS SE
WV THROUGH MID-MORNING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO
MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY
AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-012>017-
     022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF/RAB

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FA FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING DURING
THE AFTN WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER
20 MPH. THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRI TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH LOW TO MID 70S FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.

WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240948
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.

THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SCA IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES THIS EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

000
FXUS61 KRNK 240858
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...USHERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER BY MID
TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TODAY...WILL
LOOK LIKE SOMETHING WE MORE COMMONLY SEEN DURING THE WINTER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE MAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD LOWER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...AND RADAR INDICATES UPSLOPE RAINSHOWERS FALLING FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE LARGER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON AN 8 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH CLOUDS
E
00004000
XPECTED TO SCATTER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT
WE WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHERE
RIDGES ABOVE 3000 FEET CAN SEE 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ELSEWHERE.

HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO
WARM MUCH FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ON TOP OF
THAT...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE
AIR...SO IT WILL BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP A SWEATER OR LIGHT JACKET
HANDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. WILL BE LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO PREVENT
FROST IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS...HOWEVER BELIEVE
THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REACH INTO BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS COLD 850MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO THE NE SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE DC
METRO AREA BY SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME FROM
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS OF FREEZING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS...TO WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S WEST
AND LOWER 70S PIEDMONT...WITH SOME 50S DEFINITELY HANGING ON ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM
THE PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAA. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE INTO SUN MORNING
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STRONG WAA ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER AS WELL. THUS...DO NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUN MORNING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MON INTO TUE...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
AND AMPLIFY FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH ATLANTIC...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON A
SERIES OF NW FLOW DISTURBANCES SLATED TO RIDE OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MON-TUE PERIOD...BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO SHOVE THIS
CONVEYER BELT OF DISTURBANCES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD PA/NY. THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY TUE...AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR NW FLOW/MCS TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY TO RIDE SE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH QPF CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE SFC AIR MASS WILL BE
SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE ABNORMALLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SUN-
MON...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY DOWNSLOPES TOWARD THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MON-
TUE...AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...IT WILL BE BACK
TO REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT
FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND WILL NOW CONTEND WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS FROM ROA WESTWARD...THAT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
SUNRISE. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER FOR
THESE AIRPORTS...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. FURTHER EAST...LYH AND DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 8 MB ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNRISE. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING AT WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS FOR BCB...BLF AND LYH....AND UP TO 25 KTS
FOR DAN AND LYH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NEAR PERFECT FOR TERRAIN
INDUCED FUNNELING AT ROA...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS
TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS DURING EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT TO SEE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND DEEPENS. AS SUCH...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT... BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO
MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY
AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ009-012>017-022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. NOT EXPECTING
SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT
FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE LO TO MID 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA FRI MORNING USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING
DURING THE AFTN WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTING
OVER 20MPH. THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ANY PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRI TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW TO MID 70S FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.

WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.

THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SCA IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES THIS EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.

&&

.FLOODING...

WE ARE WATCHING THE SENECA CRK AT DAWSONVILLE. DUAL POL ESITAMTED
OVR 3" OF RAIN IN NRN MONT/WRN HOWARD. CRK HAS RESPONDED BY RISING
FM 2 FT TO OVR 6 FT..WHICH IS OVR A FT BLO MINOR FLD STAGE. WE/MARFC
WL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240637
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AIDED
BY LIFT PROVIDED BY A GUST FRONT. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ~35MPH WITH THIS LINE. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS GUST
FRONT INTERACTION ENDS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
LO TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.

SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT
00004000
 THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAM/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...MAM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 240612
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
212 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR PUSHING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER
LIKE WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WIND SHIFT FRONT NOW NEARING THE BLUE RIDGE PRECEDED BY A NARROW
LINE OF SHALLOW SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ACTUAL DEWPOINT FRONT LAGS BACK ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER DENOTED BY ANOTHER BAND OF -SHRA PER REGIONAL RADAR
LOOPS. ONCE THE EASTERN BAND OF SHRA EXITS...MODELS KEEP CLOUDS
PACKED IN ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW WHILE
GETTING MORE CLEARING EAST AS DOWNSLOPE INCREASES LATE. THUS WILL
KEEP CAT/LIKELY POPS OUT EAST A BIT LONGER AND HANG ONTO CURRENT
CHANCES NW SLOPES OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG
5H UPPER SYSTEM TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGING IN
BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS AND MIXING HINDER
BIG DROP IN TEMPS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WV
MTNS INTO THE NC MTNS...TO MID 50S NEW RIVER VALLEY/ROANOKE AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 EAST.

MODELS KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WORKS TO DRY THINGS OUT TO THE EAST.

PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 6 HOURS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. LOW LVL WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR SW VA INTO NW NC FRIDAY.

AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH THE
BREEZE...WITH HIGHS ONLY MANAGING THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING DOWNRIGHT COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO
TEST THE 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION RIDING INTO THE AREA
ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE REGION...DEWPOINTS
SLIPPING INTO THE 20S. IN SPITE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...MIXING FROM THE WIND FRIDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANCE OF
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY THE TREE CANOPY...SHOULD TRAP ENOUGH LONG
WAVE RADIATION AT NIGHT TO PREVENT A FROST OR FREEZE. THE ONLY
AREA ATTM THAT WE THINK TEMPS MAY SLIP BLO FREEZING FOR A FEW
HOURS WOULD BE THE WV MTNS NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG.
ELSEWHERE...UNLESS YOU JUST LIVE IN A DEEP HOLE...UNPROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY...WOULD THERE BE A NEED TO TAKE ANY PRECAUTION
FROM A FROST OR FREEZE. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...WOULD THINK PLANTS
NEAR BUILDINGS OR UNDERNEATH A PORCH WOULD FAIR JUST FINE.

WITH AIR TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...A SWIM PARTY AT THE LOCAL
POOL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.  HIKING OR WORKING OUT OF DOORS HOWEVER
LOOK TO BE IDEAL...AS NO RAIN IS FORECAST AND A LOT OF FOLKS MAY
PREFER THE CRISPER COOL CONDITIONS FOR MOWING THE BACK YARD
HAYFIELDS THAT HAVE BEEN PROMOTED FROM ALL THE RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP SPILLING
INTO THE AREA AROUND AN AMPLIFYING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL MORPH FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY...OVERTAKING THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...ARCING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD GAIN
LATITUDE TUESDAY AND FINALLY PUT US COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IT WILL BE BACK TO
REALLY WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT FOR AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND WILL NOW CONTEND WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS FROM ROA WESTWARD...THAT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
SUNRISE. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER FOR
THESE AIRPORTS...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. FURTHER EAST...LYH AND DAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 8 MB ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNRISE. AS SUCH...WILL BE LOOKING AT WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS FOR BCB...BLF AND LYH....AND UP TO 25 KTS
FOR DAN AND LYH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NEAR PERFECT FOR TERRAIN
INDUCED FUNNELING AT ROA...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS
TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS DURING EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT TO SEE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND DEEPENS. AS SUCH...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT... BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO
MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY
AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/NF

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AIDED
BY LIFT PROVIDED BY A GUST FRONT. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ~35MPH WITH THIS LINE. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS GUST
FRONT INTERACTION ENDS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
LO TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.

SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER CNTRL VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AS OF 2 PM EDT. VFR/MVFR CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 TO
2500 FT AGL...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS OVER THE LOWER ERN
SHORE...WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO INLAND VA AND NC DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER. MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE) AND GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CLEARING THE COAST EARLY
FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW POST FRONTAL FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAM/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAM

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240227
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1027 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING
INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN SUB SVR WITH
INSTABILITY OF THE DAY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING A FEW HRS AGO. SHRAS WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST
TO EAST OVRNGT/ERY FRI MRNG AS THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. A
FEW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE, NOT
EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE LO TO
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.

SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECM
00004000
WF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER CNTRL VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AS OF 2 PM EDT. VFR/MVFR CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 TO
2500 FT AGL...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS OVER THE LOWER ERN
SHORE...WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO INLAND VA AND NC DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER. MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE) AND GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CLEARING THE COAST EARLY
FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW POST FRONTAL FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAM

000
FXUS61 KRNK 240135
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
935 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR PUSHING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER
LIKE WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WIND SHIFT FRONT NOW NEARING THE BLUE RIDGE PRECEDED BY A NARROW
LINE OF SHALLOW SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. ACTUAL DEWPOINT FRONT LAGS BACK ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER DENOTED BY ANOTHER BAND OF -SHRA PER REGIONAL RADAR
LOOPS. ONCE THE EASTERN BAND OF SHRA EXITS...MODELS KEEP CLOUDS
PACKED IN ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NW WHILE
GETTING MORE CLEARING EAST AS DOWNSLOPE INCREASES LATE. THUS WILL
KEEP CAT/LIKELY POPS OUT EAST A BIT LONGER AND HANG ONTO CURRENT
CHANCES NW SLOPES OVERNIGHT ESPCLY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG
5H UPPER SYSTEM TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGING IN
BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS AND MIXING HINDER
BIG DROP IN TEMPS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WV
MTNS INTO THE NC MTNS...TO MID 50S NEW RIVER VALLEY/ROANOKE AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 EAST.

MODELS KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WORKS TO DRY THINGS OUT TO THE EAST.

PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 6 HOURS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. LOW LVL WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR SW VA INTO NW NC FRIDAY.

AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH THE
BREEZE...WITH HIGHS ONLY MANAGING THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING DOWNRIGHT COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO
TEST THE 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION RIDING INTO THE AREA
ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE REGION...DEWPOINTS
SLIPPING INTO THE 20S. IN SPITE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...MIXING FROM THE WIND FRIDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANCE OF
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY THE TREE CANOPY...SHOULD TRAP ENOUGH LONG
WAVE RADIATION AT NIGHT TO PREVENT A FROST OR FREEZE. THE ONLY
AREA ATTM THAT WE THINK TEMPS MAY SLIP BLO FREEZING FOR A FEW
HOURS WOULD BE THE WV MTNS NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG.
ELSEWHERE...UNLESS YOU JUST LIVE IN A DEEP HOLE...UNPROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY...WOULD THERE BE A NEED TO TAKE ANY PRECAUTION
FROM A FROST OR FREEZE. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...WOULD THINK PLANTS
NEAR BUILDINGS OR UNDERNEATH A PORCH WOULD FAIR JUST FINE.

WITH AIR TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...A SWIM PARTY AT THE LOCAL
POOL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.  HIKING OR WORKING OUT OF DOORS HOWEVER
LOOK TO BE IDEAL...AS NO RAIN IS FORECAST AND A LOT OF FOLKS MAY
PREFER THE CRISPER COOL CONDITIONS FOR MOWING THE BACK YARD
HAYFIELDS THAT HAVE BEEN PROMOTED FROM ALL THE RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP SPILLING
INTO THE AREA AROUND AN AMPLIFYING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL MORPH FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY...OVERTAKING THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...ARCING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD GAIN
LATITUDE TUESDAY AND FINALLY PUT US COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IT WILL BE BACK TO
REALLY WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT FOR AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WILL BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR IN
CONVECTION FROM KROA EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS
THIS LINE COMES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSW STILL EXPECTING A
SCATTERING OF SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY SE WVA SITES WHERE WILL KEEP
PREVAILING SHRA AND A VCTS MENTION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST MOST COVERAGE SHOULD BE GONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AROUND
KBLF/KLWB OVERNIGHT. ALSO WITH SFC WINDS PICKING UP THINK IFR CIGS
AT KBLF A GOOD POSSIBILITY WHILE KLWB DROPS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

FURTHER EAST CIGS WILL BE VFR ALTHOUGH BCB COULD FALL INTO MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAWN.

WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN EARNEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS KBCB/KROA/KBLF. THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
BRING ABOUT VFR AT ALL SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO
MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY
AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240108
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
908 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT IN/NEAR THE SHEN VLY ATTM. AFTER AN AFTN WHERE STORMS WERE
SCTD AND LACKED ORGANIZATION...FINALLY HV A CONCENTRATED STRUCTURE
TO WORK OFF OF. HWVR...W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WE/RE LOSING
WHAT SEVERITY WE HAD. CENTRAL VA HAS BEEN LARGELY UNTAPPED...AND
XPCT TSRA TO HV MORE LIFE THERE. ELSW...THE HVY RAFL WL BE THE
BIGGER IMPACT. LWX RAOB DEMONSTRATES THIS PREMISE...W/ MORE CINH
THAN CAPE AND 1.33 INCH PWAT. WL KEEP POPS HIGH TIL FROPA...THEN
SCALE BACK. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE A DIFFERENT DAY WITH MAXIMA
RELUCTANT TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AT PLAY AND AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAXIMA IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DECENT GRADIENT WITH COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING A WINDY DAY...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND ALSO CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS STAY UP
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS EXPECTED. BUT TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE HIGHLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WINDY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 RISES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH STARTS SETTING UP
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE LIKELY ON
TUESDAY PER 12Z GFS. MONDAY APPEARS STABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO MODEL
CAPE. ON TUESDAY...INSTABILITY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE SHEN VALLEY
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE AROUND CLIMO...THEN INCREASING UP
TO 10 DEG ABV CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA IN METRO BALT AND DOWN THE SHEN VLY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS
ATTM GNLY MVFR...ALTHO CUD HV LCL IFR W/IN SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHRA THEREAFTER...AS WELL AS OCNL MVFR CIGS. CUD BE
CONTENDING W/ A LTL FOG AS WELL TIL FROPA.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT.
COOLER/DRIER AIR WL TAKE CARE OF ANY RESIDUAL FOG. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS.

STRONG NWLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPR LOW
REMAINS IN THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. VFR EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN A CANADIAN AIRMASS BEFORE A MIDWEEK WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FM DRUM PT-SMITH PT AND ADJACENT TANGIER SOUND...WINDS HVNT
REALLY BEEN REACHING SCA CRIT. EVEN IN THE MID BAY...SPDS STARTING
TO SUBSIDE. WL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. THAT/S NOT TO SAY
THERE WONT BE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THEY WL BE ASSOCD W/ SHRA AND TSRA
CROSSING ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT. ANTICIPATE SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS WL BE REQD OVNGT.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON FRIDAY...FOR A
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH GALES DUE TO
GRADIENT EFFECTS ALONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPR LOW
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES RUNNING 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL TNGT. NO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORMAL AT A
MINIMUM...AND MORE LIKELY BLOW OUT CONDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...HTS/BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...HTS/BPP/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BPP/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 232338
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH DRY AND COOLER AIR PUSHING IN
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WORKS NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM ERN OHIO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO ERN KY AND
MID TN. CONVECTION FIRING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WRN WV INTO
ERN KY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT IS LEADING TO MORE
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF OUR CWA WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA.

WILL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PIEDMONT WITH THE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCE INTO SE WV AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/PWATS AND SOME SHEAR OF 20 KNOTS AM INCLINED TO
INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO THE LATE AFTN WITH ANY
STORM. IT APPEARS BEST SVR THREAT WILL LIE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NW COUNTY
WARNING AREA AROUND GREENBRIER COUNTY/BATH CLOSE TO THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN
SHIFT OF CONVECTION WILL EXIT EAST WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS
OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE SO THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
OCCURRING AT TIMES OVER THE MTNS OF WV/FAR SW VA INTO NW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH TREND OF DRYING TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS HINDER BIG DROP IN TEMPS. LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WV MTNS INTO THE NC MTNS...TO
MID 50S NEW RIVER VALLEY/ROANOKE AND UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 EAST.

MODELS KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE WES
00001AA7
T TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WORKS TO DRY THINGS OUT TO THE EAST.

PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 6 HOURS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. LOW LVL WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR SW VA INTO NW NC FRIDAY.

AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH THE
BREEZE...WITH HIGHS ONLY MANAGING THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...

COLD ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING DOWNRIGHT COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO
TEST THE 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION RIDING INTO THE AREA
ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE REGION...DEWPOINTS
SLIPPING INTO THE 20S. IN SPITE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...MIXING FROM THE WIND FRIDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANCE OF
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY THE TREE CANOPY...SHOULD TRAP ENOUGH LONG
WAVE RADIATION AT NIGHT TO PREVENT A FROST OR FREEZE. THE ONLY
AREA ATTM THAT WE THINK TEMPS MAY SLIP BLO FREEZING FOR A FEW
HOURS WOULD BE THE WV MTNS NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG.
ELSEWHERE...UNLESS YOU JUST LIVE IN A DEEP HOLE...UNPROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEY...WOULD THERE BE A NEED TO TAKE ANY PRECAUTION
FROM A FROST OR FREEZE. EVEN IN THESE AREAS...WOULD THINK PLANTS
NEAR BUILDINGS OR UNDERNEATH A PORCH WOULD FAIR JUST FINE.

WITH AIR TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...A SWIM PARTY AT THE LOCAL
POOL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.  HIKING OR WORKING OUT OF DOORS HOWEVER
LOOK TO BE IDEAL...AS NO RAIN IS FORECAST AND A LOT OF FOLKS MAY
PREFER THE CRISPER COOL CONDITIONS FOR MOWING THE BACK YARD
HAYFIELDS THAT HAVE BEEN PROMOTED FROM ALL THE RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP SPILLING
INTO THE AREA AROUND AN AMPLIFYING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL MORPH FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY...OVERTAKING THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...ARCING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD GAIN
LATITUDE TUESDAY AND FINALLY PUT US COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IT WILL BE BACK TO
REALLY WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT FOR AIRMASS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WILL BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR IN
CONVECTION FROM KROA EAST WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS
THIS LINE COMES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSW STILL EXPECTING A
SCATTERING OF SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY SE WVA SITES WHERE WILL KEEP
PREVAILING SHRA AND A VCTS MENTION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST MOST COVERAGE SHOULD BE GONE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AROUND
KBLF/KLWB OVERNIGHT. ALSO WITH SFC WINDS PICKING UP THINK IFR CIGS
AT KBLF A GOOD POSSIBILITY WHILE KLWB DROPS TO MVFR AT TIMES.

FURTHER EAST CIGS WILL BE VFR ALTHOUGH BCB COULD FALL INTO MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAWN.

WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN EARNEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS KBCB/KROA/KBLF. THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
BRING ABOUT VFR AT ALL SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE GETTING TO
MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY TUESDAY
AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/WP

      
      

  
    
  
  
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