000
FXUS63 KGLD 190539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF STORMS
HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THE LIFT DECLINING
FURTHER EAST OF THE STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WILL
HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
STILL HINTING AT SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOOKING WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR
RETURNS FROM SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL COLORADO SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RATHER
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT DUE TO VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MESOSCALE STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD BY THE START OF THE TAFS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE COMPLEX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE SITE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS
AROUND KGLD TONIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP. MOST MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING FOG FORMING ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS INDICATING
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH WILL INCLUDE A MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FOR KGLD OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE PLACING LIFT OVER KMCK DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
LIFT MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VICINITY TS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KTOP 190459
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1159 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. FEEL THAT HIGH CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD WITH VCTS GROUPS...ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KGLD 190308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
908 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR
00004000
 TRENDS. LINE OF STORMS
HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THE LIFT DECLINING
FURTHER EAST OF THE STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WILL
HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
STILL HINTING AT SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOOKING WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR
RETURNS FROM SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL COLORADO SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KGLD FOR THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL LAST. AM
ANTICIPATING THEM TO BE THROUGH KGLD BY THE END OF THE EVENING.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. FOR KMCK
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CAUSED THE
WINDS TO BE MORE EASTERLY. AM ANTICIPATING THE WINDS TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KMCK TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KICT 190306
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1006 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A TSRA CLUSTER RESTABLISHED ITSELF WHILE MOVG SE OVER RENO & KINGMAN
COUNTIES WHERE DEVELOPMENT INCREASED. HAVE THEREFORE REFINED ALL WX
RELATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH POPS ACROSS SC KS
GREATLY INCREASED TO 35-45% WITH FOCUS ON AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135.
REST OF FORECAST KEPT INTACT...FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER HEAT LATE WEEK AND BEYOND.

MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND TOPEKA INDICATED NOT MUCH
WARMING WOULD BE NEEDED TO BREACH CAP...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY PROVED
TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTHERN KS
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD VENTURE INTO PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE DECENT
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE
MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COULD VENTURE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-135
TOWARD DAWN...ORIGINATING FROM LINGERING HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FESTERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 MUCH OF THE
DAY...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...AS TIGHT
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST. INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER OVER EASTERN KS THROUGH THU MORNING.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...A STOUT MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRI-SUN...AS SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EVIDENT IN
THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  85  69  91 /  30  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      67  85  69  93 /  30  30  50  20
NEWTON          66  85  69  91 /  20  30  40  30
ELDORADO        65  84  69  89 /  20  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  70  91 /  30  30  30  30
RUSSELL         67  86  68  96 /  40  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      67  84  68  95 /  40  40  50  10
SALINA          66  86  69  93 /  30  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       66  85  69  93 /  20  30  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  69  87 /  10  20  20  30
CHANUTE         65  85  68  87 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            65  85  68  87 /  10  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    66  85  69  87 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES

000
FXUS63 KTOP 190007
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM STORM POTENTIAL AND AVIATION FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN
OVERTURNING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
OUTFLOW SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDED FROM
NEAR SALINA TO EUREKA AT 7 PM. AN AREA OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CONCORDIA TO CLAY CENTER HAS ALSO BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS HAVE RECENTLY INITIALIZED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SALINA. ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO DICKINSON AND
MORRIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE
SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMING TO
AN END...THE STORMS SHOULD ALSO END FOR THE NIGHT BY 9 PM OR SO.
BEFORE 9...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THE RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS HAS ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH RATES
APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER HOUR. A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER AROUND MHK THROUGH
01Z...BUT SHOULD BE OVER FOR TOP/FOE FOR THE NIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. THERE IS SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z AT MHK...AND AFTER 23Z AT TOP/FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KGLD 182353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEW
DATA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL LAST...AND WHAT INTERACTION WITH THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE LINE OF STORMS.
AT THIS TIME AM ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO SUBSIDENCE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FIRING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
COLORADO. THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP. CHANCES GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DEC
00004000
IDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KGLD FOR THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL LAST. AM
ANTICIPATING THEM TO BE THROUGH KGLD BY THE END OF THE EVENING.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. FOR KMCK
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CAUSED THE
WINDS TO BE MORE EASTERLY. AM ANTICIPATING THE WINDS TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KMCK TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KICT 182350
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER HEAT LATE WEEK AND BEYOND.

MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND TOPEKA INDICATED NOT MUCH
WARMING WOULD BE NEEDED TO BREACH CAP...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY PROVED
TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTHERN KS
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD VENTURE INTO PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE DECENT
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE
MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COULD VENTURE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-135
TOWARD DAWN...ORIGINATING FROM LINGERING HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FESTERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 MUCH OF THE
DAY...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...AS TIGHT
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST. INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER OVER EASTERN KS THROUGH THU MORNING.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...A STOUT MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRI-SUN...AS SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EVIDENT IN
THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A BKN LINE OF (+)TSRA ~35 MILES WIDE EXTENDING IN AN ALMOST W-E MANNER
ACROSS CNTRL KS CONTINUES TO MOVE S~15KTS SHOULD VACATE THE KRSL &
KSLN PREMISES BY 02Z. THE WRN EDGE OF A TSRA CLUSTER THAT IS MOVG S/SE
ALONG THE SE KS/SW MO BORDER WILL VENTURE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KCNU TO
WARRANT A "VCTS" DESCRIPTOR TIL 02Z. AFTER 02Z THERE ARE NO CONCERNS
TO BE DEALT WITH FOR THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  85  69  91 /  10  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      67  85  69  93 /  20  30  50  20
NEWTON          66  85  69  91 /  10  30  40  30
ELDORADO        65  84  69  89 /  10  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
RUSSELL         67  86  68  96 /  30  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      67  84  68  95 /  30  40  50  10
SALINA          66  86  69  93 /  30  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       66  85  69  93 /  20  30  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  69  87 /  10  20  20  30
CHANUTE         65  85  68  87 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            65  85  68  87 /  20  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    66  85  69  87 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES

000
FXUS63 KDDC 182321
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

TONIGHT:

KDDC WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NW KANSAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...MID 60S.

TOMORROW:

EARLY CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A SFC
CONVERGENCE LINE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS PEAKING AT 18Z AND
THEN TAPERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE AND RESULTANT
SUPPORT MOVES EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HAYS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNSET. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE DODGE CITY AIRPORT BETWEEN 0230Z AND
04Z IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER. ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABOVE
4000 FEET SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  88  67  99 /  30  40  20  10
GCK  63  90  66 101 /  30  40  10  10
EHA  63  93  66 102 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  63  92  67 102 /  30  30  10  10
HYS  66  86  67  94 /  30  40  20  10
P28  67  87  68  95 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT

000
FXUS63 KTOP 182033
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE 
00003575
OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KGLD 182033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND FL060. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSE AT 10-15 WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BETTER
POTENTIAL AT KGLD THAN KMCK BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS ROUGHLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS EVEN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS BUT ESPECIALLY KGLD WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DLF

000
FXUS63 KICT 182025
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER HEAT LATE WEEK AND BEYOND.

MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND TOPEKA INDICATED NOT MUCH
WARMING WOULD BE NEEDED TO BREACH CAP...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY PROVED
TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTHERN KS
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD VENTURE INTO PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE DECENT
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE
MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COULD VENTURE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-135
TOWARD DAWN...ORIGINATING FROM LINGERING HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FESTERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 MUCH OF THE
DAY...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...AS TIGHT
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST. INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER OVER EASTERN KS THROUGH THU MORNING.

ADK

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...A STOUT MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRI-SUN...AS SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EVIDENT IN
THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY STORM
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL OVER ANOTHER IS LOW...AND HAVE LEFT
VCTS OR PREVAILING TS GROUP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON .
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER KRSL/KSLN IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVOLUTION AND DIRECTION
THIS CONVECTION IS GOING TO TAKE IS IN QUESTION...BUT IT MAY
IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGAIN...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE
HAVE LEFT A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...THINKING THAT
LATER GUIDANCE MAY INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  85  69  91 /  20  30  30  30
HUTCHINSON      67  85  69  93 /  20  30  40  20
NEWTON          66  85  69  91 /  20  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  84  69  89 /  10  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
RUSSELL         67  86  68  96 /  40  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      67  84  68  95 /  40  40  50  10
SALINA          66  86  69  93 /  30  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       66  85  69  93 /  20  30  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  69  87 /  10  20  20  30
CHANUTE         65  85  68  87 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            65  85  68  87 /  20  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    66  85  69  87 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 181800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

TONIGHT:

KDDC WSR-88D INDICATING RETURNED POWER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NW KANSAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OR SOUTHEAST. A FEW SEVERE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...MID 60S.

TOMORROW:

EARLY CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG A SFC
CONVERGENCE LINE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS PEAKING AT 18Z AND
THEN TAPERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE AND RESULTANT
SUPPORT MOVES EAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIB
00004000
UTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  88  67 /  20  30  40  20
GCK  84  63  90  66 /  20  30  40  10
EHA  83  63  93  66 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  85  63  92  67 /  20  30  30  10
HYS  87  66  86  67 /  20  30  40  20
P28  90  67  87  68 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN

000
FXUS63 KGLD 181800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND FL060. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSE AT 10-15 WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BETTER
POTENTIAL AT KGLD THAN KMCK BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS ROUGHLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS EVEN WITH CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS BUT ESPECIALLY KGLD WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF

000
FXUS63 KDDC 181745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS VERY
WARM 850-700MB DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR ADVECTS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS (SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AS THE MAIN
POLAR JET TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST). THE GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A CONVECTIVE QPF
SIGNAL ROLLING EAST ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH SEEMS TO
BE TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST
A BIT ON THURSDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE RH PLUMMETS TO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS PERCENT. ALONG THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED AND A CONTINUED RATHER MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS (DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S). A SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET 45-50
KNOTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME LOOKS RATHER SPARSE... SO WILL ONLY BE GOING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES FOR
NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION/ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SUBTROPICAL (YET RATHER WEAK) JET WILL CONTINUE FROM ARIZONA THROUGH
NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER PATTERN AS A 595+ DECAMETER HIGH AT 500MB
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY APPROACH
WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSOLVE LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT). HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM
LIKELY...WITH THE PERSISTENT 100-DEGREE HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  88  67 /  20  30  40  20
GCK  84  63  90  66 /  20  30  40  10
EHA  83  63  93  66 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  85  63  92  67 /  20  30  30  10
HYS  87  66  86  67 /  20  30  40  20
P28  90  67  87  68 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN

000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INITIAL FOCUS IS SMALL MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. VARIOUS MODELS
ARE GIVING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...EVERYTHING FROM DENIAL TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.
HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. IT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE JUST
ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING...HOWEVER
IT BLOWS UP MORE CONVECTION ALONG THIS OUTFLOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT UNREASONABLE...BUT GIVEN
VERIFICATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ON WEAKER CONVECTION...
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT BOTH AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS FOR NOW...AND
LET DAY SHIFT TWEAK AS WARRANTED.

STILL APPEARS TO BE DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TO CLIP AT LEAST WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT IF
STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY ONGOING IN CENTRAL KS. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH ONSET /POSSIBLE ROUND TWO/
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST FAIR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS WIDE WED/WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU IN
SOUTHEAST KS. HIGHS ON WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. HAVE TWEAKED /MOSTLY UP/ INITIALIZATION

00004000
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION DURING THE LAST WARMUP.
DGEX/ECMWF AND SURPRISINGLY GFS MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
OUTPERFORMED VARIOUS INITIALIZATION BLENDS IN THE EXTEND PERIODS
OF THE LAST WARMUP. HAVE OPTED TO NIX PRECIPITATION ON MON GIVEN
FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON BOTH 500MB FLOW
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATION.  -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY STORM
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL OVER ANOTHER IS LOW...AND HAVE LEFT
VCTS OR PREVAILING TS GROUP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON .
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER KRSL/KSLN IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVOLUTION AND DIRECTION
THIS CONVECTION IS GOING TO TAKE IS IN QUESTION...BUT IT MAY
IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGAIN...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE
HAVE LEFT A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...THINKING THAT
LATER GUIDANCE MAY INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  66  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      89  67  84  69 /  10  20  30  30
NEWTON          89  66  83  68 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        87  65  83  70 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  67  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         89  67  85  66 /  20  30  30  40
GREAT BEND      89  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  40
SALINA          89  66  85  71 /  20  20  30  40
MCPHERSON       89  66  84  69 /  10  20  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     87  66  85  71 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         86  65  85  69 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            86  65  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  70 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KDDC 181704
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF SAID ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL BE SE/S
5-11 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  63  87  69 /  20  40  40  30
GCK  84  63  90  68 /  20  50  30  20
EHA  83  63  93  68 /  50  60  30  10
LBL  85  64  91  69 /  20  50  30  20
HYS  87  63  85  69 /  20  20  40  30
P28  90  66  86  70 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN

000
FXUS63 KDDC 181500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE 18.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED TWO JET STREAK ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE 95 KT STREAK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER 115 KT STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS WESTERLY AROUND
60 KT. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE 550 DM CYCLONE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
OF WASHINGTON STATE. FAIRLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -24 DEG
C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROFS
WERE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -28 DEG C. AT 700 HPA, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED
AT KDDC. TEMPS WERE FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z FLIGHT...STILL
@ 8 DEG C. SLIGHT COOLING WAS NOTED AT 850 HPA @ KDDC WITH THE OBSERVED
VALUE AT 18 DEG C INSTEAD OF 20 DEG C. AGAIN, LESS OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WAS NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS NOTED ACROSS COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED @ 17.9N 90.0W @ 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDI
00004000
TIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  63  87  69 /  20  40  40  30
GCK  84  63  90  68 /  20  50  30  20
EHA  83  63  93  68 /  50  60  30  10
LBL  85  64  91  69 /  20  50  30  20
HYS  87  63  85  69 /  20  20  40  30
P28  90  66  86  70 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

000
FXUS63 KTOP 181151
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRACKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS OUT OF SC
NEBRASKA...BUT EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND SHOULD IT APPROACH
ANY OF THE AVIATION FORECAST LOCATIONS.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...LEIGHTON

000
FXUS63 KGLD 181131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES WILL HELP PRODUCE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE PAST KMCK AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SHOWERS
WILL LINGER NEAR THE TERMINAL.  WINDS FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FOR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN CHANGING
TO SOUTH.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT BOTH
SITES LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS TO EXACTLY WHERE STORMS WILL PASS.  THEREFORE...ONLY VICINITY
MENTIONS ARE IN TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KDDC 181122
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIMEFRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  63  87  69 /  20  40  40  30
GCK  84  63  90  68 /  20  50  30  20
EHA  81  63  93  68 /  50  60  30  10
LBL  84  64  91  69 /  20  50  30  20
HYS  84  63  85  69 /  20  20  40  30
P28  84  66  86  70 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS
00004000
/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

000
FXUS63 KICT 181111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INITIAL FOCUS IS SMALL MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. VARIOUS MODELS
ARE GIVING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...EVERYTHING FROM DENIAL TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.
HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. IT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE JUST
ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING...HOWEVER
IT BLOWS UP MORE CONVECTION ALONG THIS OUTFLOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT UNREASONABLE...BUT GIVEN
VERIFICATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ON WEAKER CONVECTION...
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT BOTH AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS FOR NOW...AND
LET DAY SHIFT TWEAK AS WARRANTED.

STILL APPEARS TO BE DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TO CLIP AT LEAST WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT IF
STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY ONGOING IN CENTRAL KS. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH ONSET /POSSIBLE ROUND TWO/
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST FAIR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS WIDE WED/WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU IN
SOUTHEAST KS. HIGHS ON WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. HAVE TWEAKED /MOSTLY UP/ INITIALIZATION
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION DURING THE LAST WARMUP.
DGEX/ECMWF AND SURPRISINGLY GFS MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
OUTPERFORMED VARIOUS INITIALIZATION BLENDS IN THE EXTEND PERIODS
OF THE LAST WARMUP. HAVE OPTED TO NIX PRECIPITATION ON MON GIVEN
FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON BOTH 500MB FLOW
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATION.  -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR OTHER TAF SITES...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MID-MORNING
WITH MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 LATE TONIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  66  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      86  66  84  69 /  10  20  30  30
NEWTON          85  64  83  68 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        84  65  83  70 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  66  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         85  65  85  66 /  20  30  30  40
GREAT BEND      84  65  84  67 /  10  30  30  40
SALINA          86  67  85  71 /  10  20  30  40
MCPHERSON       85  65  84  69 /  10  20  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     85  66  85  71 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         85  64  85  69 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            85  65  84  70 /   0  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  65  85  70 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT DOES IT
GET. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AIR MASS HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS AND FORECAST FAILED FROM
YESTERDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDED UP BEING STRONGER OVER THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AT JET LEVEL APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR
APART AT MID LEVELS. THE CANADIAN AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH
THE OLDER ECMWF DOING THE WORST. THE HRRR WAS CATCHING THE INCOMING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS/CLUSTER WELL AND WILL USE INITIALLY.
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE AFFECTS OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
MOVING IN...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...GFS AND UKMET WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW USED THE
HRRR FOR THE POPS AND WINDS THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS CATCHING THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WELL.

MAIN JET LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OUT IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME AM THINKING THEY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. SO WENT NEAR
TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z MODELS SHOW A WEAK LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAKING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. STORM MOTIONS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED CINH
IS THE LOWEST AND BREAKABLE IN THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
WILL TRANSITION THE CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE EAST WHILE KEEPING SOME
KIND OF CHANCE IN THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND
UPPER LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME JET LIFT REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT THEN THE JET GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE DAY. LINGERING LIFT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THEN THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THE REDEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THAT. SO WILL START WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE BORDER
AND HAVE A LOW CHANCE IN THE EASTERN PORTION. THEN THIS SHOULD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE THEY INCREASE THE WINDS. IT DEFINITELY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WINDY AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ALSO DEWPOINTS LOOK LIKE THEY BECOME LOW IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. MODELS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND YESTERDAYS FORECAST.
CONSIDERING WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AM
SKEPTICAL OF TOO BIG OF AN INCREASE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THEN STALLING OR WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH. INITIALLY FOR THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WITH VERY TOASTY MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP DRY LAYER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. BY THE END OF THE
DAY THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. DURING THE NIGHT THIS LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DESPITE SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL KEEP THIS WHOLE PERIOD DRY DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP DRY LAYER.

MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
SHIFT. THE NORTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE
BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE MIDDLE
90S THERE. GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES IT WILL GET NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN
MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA. DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDER OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KICT 180830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INITIAL FOCUS IS SMALL MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. VARIOUS MODELS
ARE GIVING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...EVERYTHING FROM DENIAL TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.
HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. IT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE JUST
ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING...HOWEVER
IT BLOWS UP MORE CONVECTION ALONG THIS OUTFLOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT UNREASONABLE...BUT GIVEN
VERIFICATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ON WEAKER CONVECTION...
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT BOTH AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS FOR NOW...AND
LET DAY SHIFT TWEAK AS WARRANTED.

STILL APPEARS TO BE DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TO CLIP AT LEAST WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT IF
STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY ONGOING IN CENTRAL KS. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH ONSET /POSSIBLE ROUND TWO/
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST FAIR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS WIDE WED/WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU IN
SOUTHEAST KS. HIGHS ON WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. HAVE TWEAKED /MOSTLY UP/ INITIALIZATION
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION DURING THE LAST WARMUP.
DGEX/ECMWF 
00004000
AND SURPRISINGLY GFS MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
OUTPERFORMED VARIOUS INITIALIZATION BLENDS IN THE EXTEND PERIODS
OF THE LAST WARMUP. HAVE OPTED TO NIX PRECIPITATION ON MON GIVEN
FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON BOTH 500MB FLOW
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATION.  -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO WIND & SOAKED GROUNDS POINT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SE KS EARLY
THIS MORNING & HAVE NOW ASSIGNED 2-4SM BR TO KCNU FROM 09Z-13Z. NO
OTHER DIFFICULTIES TO BE ENCOUNTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 18/06Z
TAF EDITION WITH LGT & VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SE 

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180815
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTER OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION.  CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180814
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH PATTER OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION CREATES
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAS OF STRONGEST
500 MB JET SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.  DRY LINE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS
TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT OF APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SURFACE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE DRY
LINE WILL BE STATIONARY AROUND THE CO/KS BORDER...WHICH WOULD NOT
INITIATE CONVECTION.  CAPE/LI/AND K INDEX PARAMETERS ARE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MARGINAL
VALUES AT BEST FOR THE TRI STATE AREA.  DRY LINE LOOKS TO PROGRESS
MORE EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.  STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
850 MB LEVEL SHOWS GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM AS WELL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...LOOKING TO PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KDDC 180724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE EVENING BEFORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AMPLE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO WICHITA`S
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
C
00004000
ENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

A SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING WARM AIR
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LEE
TROUGHING BECOMING PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIMEFRAME. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS) COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. IT ALSO WOULD`T SURPRISE ME IF THERE WERE A
FEW PLACES THAT REACH OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  63  87  69 /  20  40  40  30
GCK  84  63  90  68 /  20  50  30  20
EHA  81  63  93  68 /  50  60  30  10
LBL  84  64  91  69 /  20  50  30  20
HYS  84  63  85  69 /  20  20  40  30
P28  84  66  86  70 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE

000
FXUS63 KDDC 180639
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
139 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE WILL BE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
WRAPPING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN COLORADO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A VERY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO MISSOURI. THEREFORE, TODAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING
PAST. A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS IN THE FIVE THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL
FORM AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST EARLY TODAY. BUT, WITH ALL THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING UP AND BY LATE AFTERNOON A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO MORTON COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GO DOWN. WILL DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET IS HARD TO FORECAST, BUT
THINK THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A SCOTT
CITY TO LIBERAL LINE, SHOULD GET THE MOST.  AS FAR AS THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE COOLEST THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR SOME TIME LATELY. THE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH WILL LIMIT DAY TIME HEATING, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S FROM SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD END
UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MINS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  63  86  68 /  20  40  30  20
GCK  84  63  88  67 /  20  50  20  20
EHA  81  63  94  67 /  50  60  30  10
LBL  84  64  90  68 /  20  50  30  10
HYS  84  63  84  68 /  20  20  20  30
P28  84  66  86  70 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE

000
FXUS63 KDDC 180517
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TONIGHT:

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.

TOMORROW:

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
JUST A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN AND FORM A CIG, WITH SOUTH
WINDS PICKING UP TO 11G21KTS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  86  68  97 /  40  30  20  10
GCK  63  88  67  98 /  50  20  20   0
EHA  63  94  67  99 /  60  30  10   0
LBL  64  90  68  99 /  50  30  10  10
HYS  63  84  68  95 /  20  20  30  10
P28  66  86  70  94 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180503
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUG
00004000
H WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KICT 180448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCV WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH A FEW STORMS
STILL ONGOING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED IN SOME TYPE OF
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT FLOW. THE COLD POOL AND CLOUDS FROM THE
MCS THAT AFFECTED THAT AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION AT THIS TIME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 20Z SHOWS A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
WITH TROUGHING AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING
EXISTS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMING TREND...AND
WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REGION.

COOK

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THERE WERE 2 REASONS FOR THE UPDATE: 1) TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF
THE CWA AS CU IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING & CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NRN AR IS SLOWLY VACATING SE KS. 2)
TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE KS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CONTS
TO MOVE E ACROSS NRN AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA /CENTRAL KANSAS/ TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SUPPORTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS IN PLACE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING GETS GOING WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

ONE THING WORTH NOTING...THE WIND FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
WELL UNDERDONE IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME-FRAME. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE AREA OF 25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION...A BIT HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...A BIT
LOWER EAST OF IT.

THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE GRIDDED NWP DATA THAT WE ARE
LOOKING AT. THE BUFKIT DATA HAS A LONG HISTORY OF VERIFICATION
THAT IS VERY GOOD...AS DOES THE GRIDDED MOS /STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE/ WHICH IS SUPPORTING A HIGHER WIND FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...EXAMINING THE IA STATE METEOGRAM
FORECASTS...WE ARE THE LOW OUTLIER WITH THE SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST.

AS A RESULT...COORDINATED A DEVIATION FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DATA THAT WE NORMALLY POPULATE THE FORECAST WITH AND HAVE GONE
HIGHER WITH THE WIND SPEED FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE BUFKIT
FORECAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE HERE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS NOTHING THOUGH THAT WOULD INDICATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAT INDICES AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOTED AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO WIND & SOAKED GROUNDS POINT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SE KS EARLY
THIS MORNING & HAVE NOW ASSIGNED 2-4SM BR TO KCNU FROM 09Z-13Z. NO
OTHER DIFFICULTIES TO BE ENCOUNTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 18/06Z
TAF EDITION WITH LGT & VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SE 

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180433
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDER OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180413
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
919 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRE
00004000
CIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180217
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
817 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONG
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR STORM
COVERAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180054
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...STORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISSIPATED
QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPED OVER FAR EASTER COLORADO. AM ANTICIPATING
STORMS TO REDEVELOP EAST OF THE CO BORDER AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE.

OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. AM STILL
HESITANT GIVEN THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. WILL RE-EVALUATE ONCE THE NEW MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KICT 180015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCV WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH A FEW STORMS
STILL ONGOING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED IN SOME TYPE OF
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT FLOW. THE COLD POOL AND CLOUDS FROM THE
MCS THAT AFFECTED THAT AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION AT THIS TIME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 20Z SHOWS A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
WITH TROUGHING AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING
EXISTS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMING TREND...AND
WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REGION.

COOK

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THERE WERE 2 REASONS FOR THE UPDATE: 1) TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF
THE CWA AS CU IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING & CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LO
00004000
W PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NRN AR IS SLOWLY VACATING SE KS. 2)
TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE KS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CONTS
TO MOVE E ACROSS NRN AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA /CENTRAL KANSAS/ TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SUPPORTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS IN PLACE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING GETS GOING WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

ONE THING WORTH NOTING...THE WIND FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
WELL UNDERDONE IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME-FRAME. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE AREA OF 25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION...A BIT HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...A BIT
LOWER EAST OF IT.

THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE GRIDDED NWP DATA THAT WE ARE
LOOKING AT. THE BUFKIT DATA HAS A LONG HISTORY OF VERIFICATION
THAT IS VERY GOOD...AS DOES THE GRIDDED MOS /STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE/ WHICH IS SUPPORTING A HIGHER WIND FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...EXAMINING THE IA STATE METEOGRAM
FORECASTS...WE ARE THE LOW OUTLIER WITH THE SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST.

AS A RESULT...COORDINATED A DEVIATION FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DATA THAT WE NORMALLY POPULATE THE FORECAST WITH AND HAVE GONE
HIGHER WITH THE WIND SPEED FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE BUFKIT
FORECAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE HERE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS NOTHING THOUGH THAT WOULD INDICATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAT INDICES AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOTED AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

EXCELLENT WEATHER FOR ALL 5 TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO THICKENING CIRRUS SPREADING E FROM INTENSE
TSRA OCCURRING OVER ERN CO & EXTREME NW KS. WITH WEAK WLY MID-LVL
FLOW THE TSRA SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WRN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  84  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      64  84  64  85 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          64  83  63  84 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        64  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  30
RUSSELL         63  83  64  85 /  20  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      63  83  64  84 /  20  10  30  30
SALINA          64  85  65  86 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       64  84  64  85 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         64  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            64  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES

000
FXUS63 KGLD 172353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 5-10
KTS SO STORMS WILL NOT QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SPEEDS OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AM ANTICIPATING THEM
TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY
IMPACTING KGLD. AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THIS SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH...BUT
THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THIS AS WELL.  WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THIS. CLOSE TO EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT
AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EITHER TO
FORM AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ALSO RE-ADDRESS THIS FOR THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

000
FXUS63 KTOP 172325
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ISOLATED TSRA HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SO
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS AT KTOP/KFOE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KDDC 172303 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TONIGHT:

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.

TOMORROW:

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
OR
00004000
GANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST INDICATIONS ARE THEY COULD STAY TO
THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  84  63  86 /  60  20  40  30
GCK  60  84  63  88 /  60  20  50  20
EHA  59  81  63  94 /  60  50  60  30
LBL  61  84  64  90 /  60  20  50  30
HYS  59  84  63  84 /  60  20  20  20
P28  65  84  66  86 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE

000
FXUS63 KICT 172051 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCV WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH A FEW STORMS
STILL ONGOING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED IN SOME TYPE OF
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT FLOW. THE COLD POOL AND CLOUDS FROM THE
MCS THAT AFFECTED THAT AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION AT THIS TIME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 20Z SHOWS A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
WITH TROUGHING AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING
EXISTS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMING TREND...AND
WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REGION.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA /CENTRAL KANSAS/ TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SUPPORTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS IN PLACE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING GETS GOING WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

ONE THING WORTH NOTING...THE WIND FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
WELL UNDERDONE IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME-FRAME. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE AREA OF 25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION...A BIT HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...A BIT
LOWER EAST OF IT.

THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE GRIDDED NWP DATA THAT WE ARE
LOOKING AT. THE BUFKIT DATA HAS A LONG HISTORY OF VERIFICATION
THAT IS VERY GOOD...AS DOES THE GRIDDED MOS /STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE/ WHICH IS SUPPORTING A HIGHER WIND FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...EXAMINING THE IA STATE METEOGRAM
FORECASTS...WE ARE THE LOW OUTLIER WITH THE SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST.

AS A RESULT...COORDINATED A DEVIATION FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DATA THAT WE NORMALLY POPULATE THE FORECAST WITH AND HAVE GONE
HIGHER WITH THE WIND SPEED FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE BUFKIT
FORECAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE HERE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS NOTHING THOUGH THAT WOULD INDICATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAT INDICES AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOTED AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS FOR AT LEAST A MORE HOURS.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AND END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT AGL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THINGS CAPPED OFF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CEN KS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER EXTREME NW KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  84  65  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      64  84  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          64  83  63  84 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        64  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  83  64  85 /  20  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      63  83  64  84 /  20  10  30  30
SALINA          64  85  65  86 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       64  84  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         64  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            64  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 172045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).

WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

000
FXUS63 KDDC 172033
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TONIGHT:

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, SOME DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE REGION, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG F...FEEL THAT IT IS NOT THE BEST TO SIDE WITH THE CONSERVATIVE
NAM SOLUTION AS THIS TIME. THE WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND 4 KM NESTED NAM
ALL BRING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FARTHER EAST THAN THE REGULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE 12Z NAM. AS A RESULT, HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST AS WELL. AS FAR AS SEVERE IS CONCERNED,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS SHOW OVERALL LIMIT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL. THINK
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. CURRENTLY THINK
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN. FIRST AREA IS OUT ACROSS COLORADO AND THE
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS NW KANSAS OR WESTERN NEBRASKA. BOTH THESE AREAS
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WRF MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL WELL AFTER 06Z, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MINIMUMS
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...UPPER 50S OUT WEST TO LOWER
60S EAST.

TOMORROW:

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TOWARDS THE
END OF MY PERIOD (00Z), INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY
OUT WEST WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  84  63  86 /  60  20  40  30
GCK  60  84  63  88 /  60  20  50  20
EHA  59  81  63  94 /  60  50  60  30
LBL  61  84  64  90 /  60  20  50  30
HYS  59  84  63  84 /  60  20  20  20
P28  65  84  66  86 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUG
00004000
DEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 172033
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WILL NEED SOME VCTS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
TOP/FOE AS RESIDUAL COMPLEX MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KICT 172023
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCV WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH A FEW STORMS
STILL ONGOING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED IN SOME TYPE OF
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT FLOW. THE COLD POOL AND CLOUDS FROM THE
MCS THAT AFFECTED THAT AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT THIS TIME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 20Z SHOWS A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
WITH TROUGHING AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING
EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMING TREND...AND
WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REGION.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH
THE WESTERNLY FLOW ALOFT...MAY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA /CENTRAL KANSAS/ TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SUPPORTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS IN PLACE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING GETS GOING WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE HERE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS NOTHING THOUGH THAT WOULD INDICATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAT INDICES AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICNANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOTED AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS FOR AT LEAST A MORE HOURS.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AND END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT AGL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THINGS CAPPED OFF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CEN KS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER EXTREME NW KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  84  65  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      64  84  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          64  83  63  84 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        64  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  83  64  85 /  20  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      63  83  64  84 /  20  10  30  30
SALINA          64  85  65  86 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       64  84  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
CHANUTE         64  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            64  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 172011
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG TO AREAS AND
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA. PLAN TO GO
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE STEERING WINDS
WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE USED IN THE
EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY SO PLAN TO
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).

WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CH
00004000
ANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

000
FXUS63 KDDC 171948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN
KANSAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE FOURTH NIGHT IN A ROW OF MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATION OF BEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN MCS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
GENERALLY WEST OF A DIGHTON TO ASHLAND LINE. SHOULD AN MCS FORM AND
THRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND ENTER OKLAHOMA SOMETIME IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY IN THIS MCS PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (ACROSS THE FAR WEST INITIALLY). A
SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY WARMING UP THE 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS LIKELY ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. THAT BEING SAID...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 700MB
TEMPERATURES STILL DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH WEST. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THAT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
90S IS FORECAST...WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SO VERY WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING
WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.  IN THIS PATTERN...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 SHOULD BE COMMON...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POLAR JET TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE ARE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT
FRONTAL POSITION...WITH THE FRONT MOST LIKELY REMAINING IN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  84  63  86 /  60  20  40  30
GCK  60  84  63  88 /  60  20  50  20
EHA  59  81  63  94 /  60  50  60  30
LBL  61  84  64  90 /  60  20  50  30
HYS  59  84  63  84 /  60  20  20  20
P28  65  84  66  86 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG TO AREAS AND
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).

WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR

000
FXUS63 KICT 171743
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION SECTION.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTHEAST
KS AT THIS TIME...AS A REMNANT MESO-CONVECTIVE VORT MAX (MCV) FROM
LAST NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EA
00004000
ST-SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT THIS DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCV SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA.  ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS TREND...AS SHOWERS ACROSS
CEN KS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. SO WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO REFINE
POPS...WITH THIS TREND IN MIND. REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOKS DRY...AS ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS THOROUGHLY WORKED
OVER BY LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX OF STORMS...WITH SUBSIDENCE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH MOST OF FORECAST BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND NONE OF THE MODELS HAVING A LOCK ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS
MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND
WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WHAT HAPPENS IN ITS WAKE
IS NOT CLEAR...ALTHOUGH AT PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN
ITS WAKE...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT MORE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP EITHER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ON REMNANT CONVERGENCE/MINIMUM CINH
AREAS...AND/OR MORE STORMS ROLL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE LATTER SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE FORMER PLAYED OUT YESTERDAY ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE
MODELS SHOWED LEAST CINH...ACTUALLY WHERE CINH WAS SUPPOSE TO BE
MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME WILL GO DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FIGURING COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LOW/LESS 20 PERCENT...AND
THEN GO WITH SMALL POPS ALONG BOTH WEST FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS
AND OVER THE SOUTH FOR RETURN MOISTURE/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.

BEYOND TONIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE WITH NO
DISTINCT SIGNALS TO SWAY FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. HOWEVER
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MODEST CONSENSUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL OVER WESTERN
KS/WESTERN OK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH LESS CLEAR SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...LESS CLOUDS AND
BUIDING HEIGHTS...INITIALIZATION TREND OF WARMER/DRIER SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS FOR AT LEAST A MORE HOURS.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AND END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT AGL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THINGS CAPPED OFF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CEN KS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER EXTREME NW KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  84  65 / 100  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      87  64  84  64 /  90  10  10  20
NEWTON          85  64  83  63 / 100  10  10  10
ELDORADO        84  64  83  64 / 100  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         87  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      86  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
SALINA          87  64  85  65 /  20  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  64  84  64 / 100  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  66  86  66 / 100  20  10  10
CHANUTE         83  64  85  65 / 100  10  10  10
IOLA            83  64  85  65 / 100  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  85  65 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 171700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 18Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM.  THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY.  REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS.  THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S.  A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL.  FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY.  A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.  THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS.  NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT THINK ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS. WINDS NE 8-12 KT VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT BY DUSK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  83  63 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  87  61  82  63 /  20  50  30  40
EHA  86  61  82  63 /  20  60  40  40
LBL  87  62  82  64 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  87  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  50
P28  87  66  84  66 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 171623
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1123 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY
RUNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND ADVANCING MCV
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED ELEVATED ACTIVITY.
WHILE CONVECTION MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...AREA AS A WHOLE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WILL NEED SOME VCTS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
TOP/FOE AS RESIDUAL COMPLEX MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KICT 171515
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTHEAST
KS AT THIS TIME...AS A REMNANT MESO-CONVECTIVE VORT MAX (MCV) FROM
LAST NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT THIS DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCV SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA.  ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS TREND...AS SHOWERS ACROSS
CEN KS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. SO WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO REFINE
POPS...WITH THIS TREND IN MIND. REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOKS DRY...AS ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS THOROUGHLY WORKED
OVER BY LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX OF STORMS...WITH SUBSIDENCE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH MOST OF FORECAST BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND NONE OF THE MODELS HAVING A LOCK ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS
MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND
WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WHAT HAPPENS IN ITS WAKE
IS NOT CLEAR...ALTHOUGH AT PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN
ITS WAKE...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT MORE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP EITHER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ON REMNANT CONVERGENCE/MINIMUM CINH
AREAS...AND/OR MORE STORMS ROLL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE LATTER SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE FORMER PLAYED OUT YESTERDAY ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE
MODELS SHOWED LEAST CINH...ACTUALLY WHERE CINH WAS SUPPOSE TO BE
MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME WILL GO DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FIGURING COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LOW/LESS 20 PERCENT...AND
THEN GO WITH SMALL POPS ALONG BOTH WEST FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS
AND OVER THE SOUTH FOR RETURN MOISTURE/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.

BEYOND TONIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE WITH NO
DISTINCT SIGNALS TO SWAY FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. HOWEVER
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MODEST CONSENSUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL OVER WESTERN
KS/WESTERN OK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH LESS CLEAR SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...LESS CLOUDS AND
BUIDING HEIGHTS...INITIALIZATION TREND OF WARMER/DRIER SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER EASTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  84  65 / 100  10
00004000
  10  20
HUTCHINSON      87  64  84  64 /  90  10  10  20
NEWTON          85  64  83  63 / 100  10  10  10
ELDORADO        84  64  83  64 / 100  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         87  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      86  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
SALINA          87  64  85  65 /  20  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  64  84  64 / 100  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  66  86  66 / 100  20  10  10
CHANUTE         83  64  85  65 / 100  10  10  10
IOLA            83  64  85  65 / 100  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  85  65 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDDC 171500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE 17.12Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 50-75 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TWO PROMINENT JET STREAKS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE RAOB NETWORK...ONE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOW ACROSS THE SECOND STREAK WAS STRONGER WITH MAGNITUDES
IN THE 95-105 KT RANGE. AT 500 HPA, A LARGE GYRE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. INTERPOLATION OF ACTUAL OBSERVED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
VALUES AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE AROUND 550 DM.
CLOSER TO HOME, A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF SW KANSAS.
ANOTHER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT 700 HPA, AN UPSLOPE
FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMP VALUES WERE 5-8
DEG C. SIMILAR UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WERE NOTED AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME
REGION. TEMP VALUES WERE 17-20 DEG C. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS NOTED ACROSS KANSAS. INVEST 93L WAS NEAR BELIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM.  THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY.  REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS.  THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S.  A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL.  FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY.  A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.  THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS.  NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY, WITH CIGS
IN THE BKN150-200 RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, BUT BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING, AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS LACKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  83  63 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  87  61  82  63 /  20  50  30  40
EHA  86  61  82  63 /  20  60  40  40
LBL  87  62  82  64 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  87  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  50
P28  87  66  84  66 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE

000
FXUS63 KTOP 171249
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

KTOP AND KFOE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

GARGAN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...GARGAN

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171157
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG TO AREAS AND
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHO
00004000
RTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SOME AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IFR IN THE
MORNING HOURS AT KGLD...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER A FEW HOURS. LOW
CEILINGS AT KGLD WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO VFR CONDITIONS. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER 14Z MONDAY...ALL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KDDC 171146
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM.  THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY.  REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS.  THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S.  A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL.  FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY.  A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.  THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS.  NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY, WITH CIGS
IN THE BKN150-200 RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, BUT BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING, AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS LACKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  83  63 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  87  61  82  63 /  20  50  30  40
EHA  86  61  82  63 /  20  60  40  40
LBL  87  62  82  64 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  87  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  50
P28  87  66  84  66 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURKE

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SOME AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IFR IN THE
MORNING HOURS AT KGLD...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER A FEW HOURS. LOW
CEILINGS AT KGLD WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO VFR CONDITIONS. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND PASS OVER THE TAF SITES. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. FOG COULD
BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. 
00000750
AFTER 14Z MONDAY...ALL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSER
00004000
VATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SOME AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR IN THE
MORNING HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. LOW CEILINGS AT KGLD
WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO VFR CONDITIONS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PASS OVER THE TAF
SITES.  THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TUESDAY. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. ALL CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BEYOND 14Z MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH

000
FXUS63 KICT 171129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH MOST OF FORECAST BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND NONE OF THE MODELS HAVING A LOCK ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS
MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND
WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WHAT HAPPENS IN ITS WAKE
IS NOT CLEAR...ALTHOUGH AT PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN
ITS WAKE...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT MORE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP EITHER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ON REMNANT CONVERGENCE/MINIMUM CINH
AREAS...AND/OR MORE STORMS ROLL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE LATTER SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE FORMER PLAYED OUT YESTERDAY ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE
MODELS SHOWED LEAST CINH...ACTUALLY WHERE CINH WAS SUPPOSE TO BE
MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME WILL GO DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FIGURING COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LOW/LESS 20 PERCENT...AND
THEN GO WITH SMALL POPS ALONG BOTH WEST FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS
AND OVER THE SOUTH FOR RETURN MOISTURE/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.

BEYOND TONIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE WITH NO
DISTINCT SIGNALS TO SWAY FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. HOWEVER
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MODEST CONSENSUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL OVER WESTERN
KS/WESTERN OK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH LESS CLEAR SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...LESS CLOUDS AND
BUIDING HEIGHTS...INITIALIZATION TREND OF WARMER/DRIER SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER EASTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      87  64  84  64 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        84  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         87  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      86  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
SALINA          87  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  64  84  64 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  66  86  66 /  60  20  10  10
CHANUTE         83  64  85  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            83  64  85  65 /  60  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  85  65 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 171051
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AR
00004000
EA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COUPLE
EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE. FIRST...ANVIL REMAINS OF CONVECTION ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALREADY OVER KGLD. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT KMCK SOON AS WELL. THINKING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AS A RESULT OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. SECOND...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KGLD AND EAST
AT KMCK LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 170910
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THESE TWO AREAS MERGE TOGETHER...MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...HENNECKE

000
FXUS63 KDDC 170838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REALM.  THERE WILL
A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY.  REPEATED H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL GENERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, AND ELEVATED
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
GET SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM TEXAS.  THIS FLOW WILL EVOLVE MORE INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RETURNING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER UPPER 90S.  A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS, AND LOWER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO
LIBERAL.  FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, WITH WARM
FRONT SHOOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRECIP-FREE, THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN STATES WILL START TO COME INTO
PLAY.  A SMALL SCALE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE EJECTED INTO THE PLAINS,
AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR US, SO SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ALL THAT SEEM WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.  THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACED 20 TO 25 PERCENT
POPS IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY, AND WILL LEAVE AS
IS.  NOT SURE WHAT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE IS TRIGGERING THIS
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION AND LEVEL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CAN BE CURTAILED BETTER AS THAT TIME FRAME APPROACHES NEARER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AOA100
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  83  63 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  87  61  82  63 /  20  50  30  40
EHA  86  61  82  63 /  20  60  40  40
LBL  87  62  82  64 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  87  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  50
P28  87  66  84  66 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

000
FXUS63 KICT 170836
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH MOST OF FORECAST BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND NONE OF THE MODELS HAVING A LOCK ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS
MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND
WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WHAT HAPPENS IN ITS WAKE
IS NOT CLEAR...ALTHOUGH AT PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN
ITS WAKE...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT MORE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP EITHER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ON REMNANT CONVERGENCE/MINIMUM CINH
AREAS...AND/OR MORE STORMS ROLL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE LATTER SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE FORMER PLAYED OUT YESTERDAY ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE
MODELS SHOWED LEAST CINH...ACTUALLY WHERE CINH WAS SUPPOSE TO BE
MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME WILL GO DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FIGURING COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LOW/LESS 20 PERCENT...AND
THEN GO WITH SMALL POPS ALONG BOTH WEST FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS
AND OVER THE SOUTH FOR RETURN MOISTURE/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.

BEYOND TONIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE WITH NO
DISTINCT SIGNALS TO SWAY FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. HOWEVER
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MODEST CONSENSUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL OVER WESTERN
KS/WESTERN OK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH LESS CLEAR SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...LESS CLOUDS AND
BUIDING HEIGHTS...INITIALIZATION TREND OF WARMER/DRIER SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH FROM THE WEST
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      87  64  84  64 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        84  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         87  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      86  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
SALINA          87  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  64  84  64 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  66  86  66 /  50  20  10  10
CHANUTE         83  64  85  65 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            83  64  85  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  85  65 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGLD 170818
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING STORMS FIRING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CAPE V
00003D28
ALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG AND 30KTS SHEAR. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DUE TO HIGH BASED STORMS. STEERING WIND WILL
MOVE STORMS EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS SINCE STORMS ARE ALREADY IN
PROGRESS MOVING EAST. FOR MONDAY STORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. STEERING WIND WILL TAKE
THEM EAST SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID 80S MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S IN
THE NORTHWEST FA NEAR INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

STRATUS WAS VERY MARGINAL AT BEST IN THE NORTHEAST FA EVEN THOUGH
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH ABOVE 90 PERCENT WAS WIDESPREAD. TREND IS FOR
A SMALLER AREA OF HIGH RH TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING.  THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345
K...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.  STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY.  FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST.  THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COUPLE
EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE. FIRST...ANVIL REMAINS OF CONVECTION ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALREADY OVER KGLD. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT KMCK SOON AS WELL. THINKING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AS A RESULT OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. SECOND...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KGLD AND EAST
AT KMCK LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH

000
FXUS63 KDDC 170720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
OBSERVED. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO
POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OF THIS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND SLIDE EASTWARD
AS TIME PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN NATURE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE LIKE THEY WERE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
JET IS PROJECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO THE
DELAYED RETURN OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
20C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
80S(F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
90S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S(F) TO NEAR
100F ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AOA100
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  62  83  63 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  87  61  82  63 /  20  50  30  40
EHA  86  61  82  63 /  20  60  40  40
LBL  87  62  82  64 /  20  50  30  40
HYS  87  63  82  63 /  10  20  20  50
P28  87  66  84  66 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

000
FXUS63 KICT 170546
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SVR TSRA THAT WERE PROLIFIC GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL PRODUCERS OVER COWLEY
COUNTY HAVE DISSIPATED BUT HAVE ALSO UNLEASHED A W-NW MOVG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SUMNER & HARPER COUNTIES & TOWARD KICT. A CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED E OF THE OUTFLOW. ISOLD CELLS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE
SE CORNER OF KS AS WELL AS OVER EC KS. MID-LVL FLOW IS VERY WEAK & AS
SUCH FAVORS A RATHER CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE "PATTERN" FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. HAVE TEMPORARILY ASSIGNED 40-50% TSRA TO EXTREME SC-SE KS
WITH SHARP POP-GRADIENT N TOWARD KS TURNPIKE TIL 10 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED TSRA PROBABILITIES FOR LATER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT ONSET OF
MCS THAT`LL SURGE SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...PRIMARILY SC KS. POP GAME
PLAN FROM MID-NGT TO 7 AM APPEARS ON TARGET. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FROM NEAR KHUT EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST TOWARD NORTON KANSAS
AT 2 PM CDT. CU HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECM RAP SHOWS MINIMAL CINH WITHIN AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
SURGING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DOWNSTREAM OF A PV ANOMALY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LATEST 12Z
SUITE OF MODEL DATA HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS A BIT FURTHER WEST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS AREA REMAINS OVERTURNED FROM DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT/EARLY TODAY. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE STEERED TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT WHILE MERGING WITH THE ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTH OUT OF
NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER NO PLANS TO
REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES A FEW LOCATIONS.

MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITHIN A STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOW IN THE 60S. -MCGUIRE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STAY PLANTED FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME
WITHOUT A BREAKDOWN IN THE FLOW PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WHEN A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. THUS ANY IMPACT TO THE AREA COULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED
PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE IN PLACE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 90 ONCE MORE. -JUANITA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH FROM THE WEST
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  84 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      63  84  65  84 /  10  10  20  40
NEWTON          63  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  40
ELDORADO        63  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  84  66  85 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         61  84  64  83 /  20  10  30  50
GREAT BEND      62  84  64  84 /  20  10  30  50
SALINA          62  84  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       62  83  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     65  85  66  85 /  10  10   0  30
CHANUTE         63  84  65  84 /   0   0   0  30
IOLA            62  83  64  83 /   0   0   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    64  84  65  84 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-
098>100.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ094.

&&

$$

      
      

  
    
  
  
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